Disaster for Merkel?
 

Merkel's taken her party to her worst ever election result and the far right AfD party has done far better than expected. I wonder if they'll still be ignored...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-41367497

What does this say about the future of Germany and indeed the EU?

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Careful not to read too much into it. She is now in her fourth term and to be ‘only’ that far ahead isn’t so bad. 6 months to a year ago the whole buzz was that the SDP were going to win.

It’s probably worst for the SDP who, despite the initial momentum and all the troubles Merkel had, were unable to make up much ground.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Merkel will pay lip-service to the right whilst continuing her own destructive policies.

The left will attack the right about any second now... expect tears, blood and fire.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Lots of commentators saying this is very dramatic result and probably eye watering given that a far right party is heading back to the German Parliament for the first time, since World War II. :erm:

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

They've been in denial about the rise of right wing extremism for years and still are. She'll do what Blair did and claim to be listening but will carry on regardless because just like him, she believes she knows best. There will be a backlash to what's been going on and it's already started. Macron's victory in France hasn't altered that.

I'm sad to say it but I think dangerous times lie ahead in the EU and I'm glad we'll be out of it even though that won't protect the UK from all the fallout.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

It is but people have been expecting this for a while. Relative to 3/4/5 years ago this is a shock result. Relative to a year ago not so much. I am not saying it's a great result for Merkel or a bad result for the far-right but these same commentators were predicting the end of Merkel's leadership not that long ago.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:36 ----------

I think 'not read too much into it' was probably the wrong way to phrase it. Better to say to keep it into perspective.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

It's not just about the end of Merkel though is it. She has to go sometime. It's about who replaces her and how extreme they might be as a result of the lip service which has been paid to an awful lot of people's sincere and justified concerns.

There's talk about an official parliamentary investigation being launched into Merkel's migration decision not being entirely legal. That might be interesting.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

I think this is probably Merkel's last term. She can't go on forever.

The AfD is a worrying result but given the material they've had to work with in the migration crisis and Eurozone ballouts it's hard to imagine a better election cycle for them than this one.

I am placing this from the perspective of how we thought this could play out at the start of the year. Macron willing in France, Merkel winning in Germany, Italy not bringing down the EU and even the far right falling short in Holland and Austria are a far cry of the worst fears people had of 2017.

Not to say there aren't serious issues to be addressed but everything is looking more stable than 9 months ago. The election probably serves as a warning the issues aren't gone but the commentators acting as if this is earth-shattering should look at their articles at the tail-end of last year.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

That'll depend on what happens about the migration crisis. It hasn't gone away and even though the numbers are down the legacy of dealing with it all is going to be felt for years in many EU countries. It was an astonishingly arrogant and dangerous thing to do.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Sounds absolutely fascinating :rolleyes: Must set the TiVo....

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

lol, won't it be auto-recorded for you by Tivo suggestions? :D

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

With the recent problems within the german military they definately need to do something about the growing far right sentiments that more and more germans seem to have.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Remember that old saying of history often repeats itself as one hopes we never slide down that road ever again in our lifetimes.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

I recall making that point here a few years ago and I still think a great many people don't believe it can happen again which is in itself a dangerous situation. Sadly, it most definitely can and the fact that it's been simmering away under the surface since the end of WWII escapes an increasing number of people whose lives weren't touched by those terrible events and who seem to be almost in denial about the possibility of WWIII.

For the most part it's our politicians who're in many cases letting their short term political ambitions and insatiable egos get in the way of acknowledging what's going on in front of their eyes. It's much easier for them to choose to believe their own rhetoric and pay lip service to the problem than accept the mistakes they've made which have led to the resentment and set about putting them right.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

I'm not sure it's short term political ambitions that are the problem most politicians now across the political spectrum are looking towards globalisation and the trouble is they are too fixated on that big goal and lots of little things are happening unnoticed that will eventually become a big problem at a rapid pace that we won't be ready for. It's why i wanted Trump to win not so much because i like the man i don't but the idea that someone outside of the political bubble would come in and drag the whole disconnected political establishment back to reality and to stop taking citizens for granted. This will be Merkel's last term and I'm sure she's aware of that and for that reason I don't expect her to alter anything at all in any meaningful way.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

The political spectrum has changed overnight in Germany and it's like the AfD are already preaching, 'prison', for Merkel, what they claim was an illegal move to allow over a million refugees in to the Country.

It's interesting to note that the SDP, have ruled out a Coalition with Merkel's party for now, had they done so, the AfD would become the main opposition.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

I agree and therein lies the problem. None of these people want to tarnish their rightful place in history by admitting they've been wrong and doing something about a problem she largely created would be such an admission. Blair was exactly the same, the only times he ever 'admitted' mistakes and promised change for the better was just before an election. When he'd got back in office it was largely forgotten and that's what led to the rise in UKIP who may have faded as a party but whose ideals certainly haven't faded amongst large sections of society. When our mainstream parties just carry on regardless as they have for so long now they leave a vacuum into which, sooner or later, comes an articulate, charismatic extremist who takes full advantage of all the pent up anger and resentment. We know what can happen next...

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Good.

For far too long Germany has had the chip of the 1920s, 30s and 40s on her shoulder, terrified that any trace of nationalism, discontent or economic issues along those lines were a rapid route to Nazism.

Hopefully she will confront the issues raised by AfD head on, deal with the issues impassively, rather than framing everything in the spectre of those dark days, and be all the better going forward.

Germany is not leading the EU economically as she should be because she's terrified of the economic events of the 20s and early 30s repeating, which is silly, so hopefully, perhaps, the AfD will achieve a quite different result from the one they want.

On another note - isn't proportional representation wonderful? Imagine how the political landscape of the UK might look if we weren't clinging on to the most undemocratic, unrepresentative voting system out there.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

I should also mention that this doesn't help the UK either. While Merkel is busy seeking out a coalition she isn't doing anything to further the UK's agenda in Brexit. It was a hope in some quarters that she would take control of the negotiation alongside the rest of the Council, however she has other things on her mind now.

Anyone would think it might've been a good idea to have waiting until after the French and German elections to trigger A50 - even if it potentially meant the UK having an election while still having MEPs.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

... and it seems the swing to the right in Europe is being continued in Austria. By all accounts the rise in migration is in large part responsible once again and there were we being lectured by some here about how warm and welcoming to migrants places like Austria are. I wonder if they still feel the same not it seems that having experienced a fraction of the problems many other countries have had to deal with, the mood in Austria has changed. Who'd have thought that could happen eh?... :rolleyes:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a8002576.html

It's ironic that a good many people who seem to be rather taken in by Corbyn's left wing vision for the UK wish to remain tethered to an increasingly right wing EU. :spin:

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Disengaging from a continent that might be progressively more right wing has not been a winning strategy historically. ;)

The picture is complicated though. Europe hasn't turned fascist. We've seen a swing to the right over the last five years but not a take-over. Le Pen made the final round in France but got comprehensively defeated by Macron. The AfD made bigger gains that they were expected to immediately before the election but not as much as people were worried about at the end of last year with Merkel winning despite the domestic problems she had. Whilst in Holland the far-right didn't make progress.

There are warning signs sure but it's not a collapse yet.

The hope for Europe as a whole is that with the recovery of the Eurozone and the improving situation in Syria that some pressure is released over the next few years.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

No it's not a collapse or anything like it, yet, but it does prove how the policies of the EU are creating serious issues amongst member states and quite a lot of people here in the UK seem unwilling to accept that fact. In fact they were the first to whine on about the UK's supposedly right wing response yet have nothing to say about the far more extreme goings on in their beloved EU.

As for disengaging, we've been in the club for decades and very little has changed and they've rarely listened. Us being inside or not won't change what's going to happen politically but at least we'll be able to decide what we do about it. That might just be choosing the least worst option but at least we'll have a choice which won't be the case under the Juncker vision which he's made perfectly clear for us all.

I think it's highly dangerous to ignore or underestimate the ill feeling which is building up in front of our eyes and it won't just fade away whatever we do. The political movements we have been seeing in recent years would have been unthinkable not that long ago and it won't take much to set things off in one place or another and create a domino effect. The Eurocrats need to take notice of what's going on but I doubt they will, they're far too busy pursuing their grand scheme.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

I agree it needs to be taken seriously and there are real issues.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Angela Merkel's reign on Germany is on the verge of collapse, the German President has called for unity, and for parties to form a working government. Angela Merkel has been unable to form a stable government since her severely weakened election result in September.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

We'll see. If the SPD change their mind about a coalition then that would resolve it pretty quick.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Tactics to get more out of the coalition. They do it all the time, but Merkel doesn't listen. To anyone. Ever.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Might be but Merkel is, at least publically, calling their bluff saying she would prefer fresh elections if required.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Which could quite easily go against her.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

No it's all fine over in Eurolalaland. No problems, no issues, no right swing extremism, no political uncertainty, no mass unemployment and to make it even better, all the swivel eyed, xenophobic, loons are are UK Brexiteers... :rolleyes:

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Well, one out of six points is something we can build upon. :D

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

unable to rep you again, but if I ever meet you in one of the half dozen pubs that remain open in the UK, I'll gladly buy you a pint :D

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

take him for a pint in the comet that should do the trick ;)

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Looks like the CDU and the SDP have agreed another grand coalition:

https://twitter.com/MKarnitschnig/st...07928463581184

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Given the support for the AfD this could mark the end for the SPD.

Re: Disaster for Merkel?
 

Could do but they faced the dilemma of the Lib Dems in 2010 of looking like they put themselves ahead of the country had they let everything collapse and they did get good concessions from Merkel. Maybe Germans would rather they just get on with governing...