UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal
 

For clarification purposes, we are not stifling Brexit Debate. You have to admit there has been a lot of it, for the last three years.

Lots of bickering, lots of petty insults from both sides. We have to move forward.

So this is the absolute final Brexit thread that I’m going to allow on CF.

This thread will be open during any new Brexit Developments. Should the thread return in to the usual squabbling. Then I’m going to introduce individual topic bans. Members will be forbidden to participate, for a period to be predetermined by the team. If you post in the thread while banned from doing so, your post will be deleted and you will be suspended for 1 day and possibly longer.

Today’s update on Brexit: Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has gone to Brussels for talks with Juncker and Barnier.

UK Supreme Court release information on timing and other information... Has a nice link for Case by Case Arguments, which the SC Justices would have reviewed by now.... Looks like a three day affair.

https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/index.html

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 

Snails for lunch, quite apt given the time leaving is taking.
i think BJ is playing his cards close to his chest and not leaking any information until the moment is right.

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Considering the antics of parliament who can blame him?

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Plus there's always the possibility that he hasn't actually got a winning hand and is just putting on his poker face and bluffing.

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Junker: UK yet to present backtop solution
https://news.sky.com/story/live-bori...weeks-11811215

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That might well be the case as it might be all bluff.

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His backers are "all in" for no deal to the tune of shorting the pound by £8bn. There will be no credible offer to the EU.

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I read that Junker would actually like to get a deal before he goes, presumably as part of his legacy. However, I am really not sure what game he is playing! One thing he will know is that BJ isn't in a mood to take any nonsense about yet another extension or settle for the backstop.

Not much time left now, though. Looking forward to what Boris will say at conference!

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The Hulk runs scared of protesters and leaves the PM of Luxembourg to upstage him.

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Given that the protestors just wanted to drown him out, I don't blame him for pulling out. It's not a case of running scared. He's just not prepared to waste his time trying to shout above the noise of the hooligans.

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Here I thought the right to peaceful protest was something key in a democracy.

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And Boris responded with his own peaceful protest.

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By not being accountable? Sounds closer to Marxism to me. Abolish all media except that friendly to the state.

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Surely, you don't invite a leader of another country you're about to share a press conference with, in front of a very very noisy rabble.

It was damn right rude of Xavier Bettel and he jolly ought to know it, he knew what he was doing and he and the EU might come to realise how much this will backfire back at home. You do not have to like Johnson but there was no need to be so rude, we are the guests and they treated us with contempt with that stunt.

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I keep seeing it mentioned that the EU are adamant that the 'backstop' remains in the current withdrawal agreement, but "is willing to look at alternatives, but that an insurance policy like the backstop must be in place".

I was under the impression everyone has been looking at an alternative for ages, but nobody has found one. Has Boris found something that's 'almost' good enough that the EU are considering, and this is why they're all playing things down until it gets sorted?

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What's the point of trying to speak when you know you are just going to be shouted down? Unfortunately, most protesters are not interested in what the person they are protesting to has to say.

Nobody has to play these games. If Boris can't get his message over one way, he will use another.

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He had a microphone. He didn't know they would protest throughout his Q and A. Generally protestors eventually cease.

He didn't attempt because he was chicken. Ironic in some ways.

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A microphone against a protesting rabble is not a lot of use. Protestors rarely listen, they just disrupt.

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Well there is journalists saying there was no reasonable way he could have conducted a press conference with protesters shouting in the background, he is not a chicken and quite rightly refused to hold it in front of them, No.10 said they did ask for it to be in doors, Luxemberg refused, so they're the ones out of order here.

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Luxembourg have said they were told at the last minute so it’s a bit of he said, she said.

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Both sides blaming each as usual.

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At the end of the day, Boris is a politician, and like all politicians he always has one eye on what his appearances will look like on the evening news. Being yelled at by a rabble in Luxembourg is not a good look and he is entirely within his rights to just decide to sack it off and go home. Yelling ‘chicken’ is a bit childish, which anyone who has ever seen the Back to the Future trilogy should know very well.

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It's evident no new arrangements have been offered regarding the N.I. Border. Boris is wanting the EU to capitulate.

You say Boris is a chicken, but he is certainly playing chicken.

He obviously thinks he has some way to circumnavigate the Benn Bill, no doubt that is what he went to the EU with, and no new deal.

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Actually, they have been making various proposals and scoping the problem, although whether the EU will accept any of it is anyone's guess.

I keep thinking to myself that if the EU wants to protect its own industries, why would it not want a deal?

The backstop is a false reason to give for not accepting the alternative arrangements we are putting forward, because if there is no deal, there is no backstop anyway!

I still say that the obvious answer is to invoke Article 24 of GATT. We could all get on with leaving and talking about the trade deal we want then.

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Boris and his ministers have made themselves absolute hostages to fortune if they are sitting on anything less than an absolute dead-cert (or as near as that as is possible in legal situations). Their pronouncements about us definitely leaving on 31 October have, uncharacteristically in political-speak, left them essentially no wriggle room at all. Yes, Theresa May insisted she was taking us out on the agreed date right up til it was very evident that was not possible, absent a willingness to leave without a deal, but aside from being a very different personality to Boris, May has quite simply used that trick up. If Boris doesn’t lead us out on 31 October, becoming the second Tory PM to make precisely the same coq-up in a matter of months, the Tories will be utterly crucified at the polls, and he knows it.

Only time will tell exactly what they have up their sleeves.

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The talk is edging towards a 'regulatory border' in the Irish Sea. That would appease the EU, it was their idea originally after all, and solve the Irish border problem. So let's see where that goes.

It would be good if they could tell us any of these ideas they have then.

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Don’t have to tell us - be good if they told the EU, though, to facilitate negotiations...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49715705 btw, I think BJ was right to cancel the Press Conference - the noisy mob would have made it impossible for anyone to hear what he was saying.

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Given the article you posted the other day speculating as to the nature of the weakness in the Benn Act (it was you, wasn’t it?), there’s an interesting conundrum brewing.

If Bozza comes back to Westminster with a draft deal and puts it before Parliament, what is the rebel alliance to do next? As the Benn Act is seemingly overridden, in the presence of an agreed deal, by provisions in the earlier legislation, then if they approve it they lose their last possible means of delaying Brexit long enough to push public opinion in favour of another referendum (and, let’s be honest, cancelling Brexit by fair means or foul is all they’re really interested in). Notwithstanding anything in the Benn Act, the procedures previously enacted have the effect, more or less, of letting Boris just get on with it. We leave on 31 October and the inevitable Supreme Court bun fight becomes a side show in which the very worst Boris can be accused of is struggling to discern the will of a parliament so willing to contradict its own Acts.

But if they don’t vote for any modified withdrawal agreement Bozza brings back from Brussels, what then? The cat is out of the bag; it becomes abundantly clear that Parliament can’t, or won’t, affirm anything whatsoever with regards to Brexit. What moral high ground Jezza thinks he has, vanishes faster than ice in Greenland. Even if Boris actually doesn’t have a loophole in his back pocket, standing up against that will make him riotously popular; if he does (and it seems vastly unlikely that he doesn’t), then deploying it will be taken as a great big middle finger to the Brexit-hating Labour Party. Labour can kiss the north of England goodbye just as surely as it has Scotland.

Right now, Jezza and his rebel alliance think they have been tremendously clever, but actually their position is I think really quite precarious.

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That assumes the modified agreement isn’t just TM’s deal with fresh lipstick.

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Yeah.

I think they're probably working that out now. It would put them in a bind but some will break away as there are MPs who really do just want to avoid No Deal so he'll pull some Tories back - like Rory Stewart - and win a chunk of Labour leavers over too so if the ERG don't play up he might have the numbers either way.

They might want a way to ensure he can't avoid letting them pass the legislation required to secure the deal with the EU though and since time would be of the essence there is the prospect of demanding a couple of weeks extension.

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My firm belief is that Brexiteers will still see it as a pig.

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The EU thought they could get the UK to capitulate. Parliament said NO on 3 occasions. What they would say "Yes" to is anybody's guess. There is no single answer to that.


Other than Remain, what other deal could he have put to the EU? Even then the EU would put a whole host of extra conditions, that they've long been itching to impose on us.

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It might be. If the EU is going to agree to it, it quite possibly has to be. But I suspect anyone seen voting down any deal Boris puts to Parliament - any deal at all - is at risk of electoral evisceration. Will the electorate really listen patiently to earnestly delivered excuses about how bad this Brexit would be for Britain, or faux-outraged demands that Boris has to go back to Brussels and bring home an altogether different Brexit? Would the irresistible cry not then be, “well, if you think you can do better, agree to an election and campaign for the right to try”?

Much does perhaps hang on what strategy No.10 has for dealing with the Benn Act, but if they have something even plausible, or if Boris comes back from Brussels with a deal (even May 2.0), then I think Corbyn is totally boxed in.

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Tell that to Labour.
Link

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Nice diversionary tactic. Two wrongs don't make a right.:)

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Gosh, the Blair years, when the Labour leadership merely hated Walter Wolfgang for spoiling their press coverage, rather than for being a Jew. I never thought I’d say it but the current lot make Blair look positively benign.

---------- Post added at 19:59 ---------- Previous post was at 19:58 ----------

I’m still not convinced by the arguments that say Boris was wrong to refuse to hold a press conference with a baying mob as a backdrop. Why should he?

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By not even trying he leaves himself open to accusations he is trying to avoid press scrutiny. I accept that folk won't agree with me on this, that's the nature of discussion on here!

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I accept that his opponents will say that, because they would do, wouldn’t they ... but given the specific circumstances it really doesn’t wash, does it. But even if you insist it does wash, all the baying mob has actually achieved for its self- indulgent road trip, is to have given Boris a way out of a difficult press conference. Rather counter productive really.

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Those who support him would say exactly what you do though. For me, that doesn't wash. It makes the protestors look worse and Boris look statesmanlike if he perseveres and remains reasonable. He's there to get a deal, with a democratic mandate to leave after all...

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What press scrutiny? If you're prevented from saying anything, there is nothing to scrutinise. They weren't there to listen.

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That’s a rather obtuse, but not unexpected, way you have interpreted Boris not attending a press conference that had journalists at it.

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I sincerely doubt Boris’ statesman-like posture would be what you would be drawing attention to, had this evening’s news been full of images of him having to raise his voice to be heard over an anti-Brexit protest. ;). However ... what’s done is done.

What do you make of BoJo’s interview with Laura Kuenssberg? He has gone out of his way to repeat his explicit pledge to get the UK out on 31 October (i gave up counting after about the 8th mention of it in the transcript) while consistently refusing to be drawn on Kuenssberg’s chosen wording about ‘sneaking around’ the law. Do you think it’s hubris, or are you concerned that the Benn Act may not actually achieve what its supporters intended it to?

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UK Supreme Court release information on timing and other information... Has a nice link for Case by Case Arguments, which the SC Justices would have reviewed by now.... Looks like a three day affair.

https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/index.html

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If you're prevented from saying anything, then there is nothing that can be scrutinised. What is complicated or obtuse about that?

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He didn’t attempt.

I think we both know we aren’t going to agree here, and these threads continually get closed for circular arguments.

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And on that note probably best we all agree to disagree. :)

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But how would he square bringing back something that looked like the Bill he refused to support himself?

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Jings, look at the timetable for Thursday morning. They’re lining up to get their five minutes of fame. Nippy Sturgeon’s sending someone to win her yet another chance to do her trademark head tilt and affected half-laugh on the Scottish news. And John Major’s at it as well. That’ll be riveting.

---------- Post added at 20:37 ---------- Previous post was at 20:35 ----------

I suspect he’ll breeze through it. The narrative has moved well beyond Theresa May’s guddle of last spring. All anyone is interested in now is whether or not we have a deal by 31 October, and whether or not Boris can make good on his vow to take us out either way.

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I haven’t seen the interview, however taking your points as with anything in law there’s probably competing opinions on it. Could be hubris for the People v Parliament election having Brexit “stolen” at the last minute is better for political optics. Either way, Boris gives the same message right now.

I’d not go as far as “concerned” personally. If we leave we leave. ;)

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Just reading the written cases for Prime Minister and Advocate General for Scotland... I've read up to page 21... the following is clear and should be cut and dry...

Bold bits the key to The Government winning this case...

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Page 21, you’re keen! :)

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He did. He went out there and heard what was going on. It's not as if he stayed inside.

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I think everyone is boxed in really. In the aftermath of the referendum we collectively chose a direction that sent both sides down an increasing narrowing path to this point.

We're all wondering what Dominic Cummings' cunning plan is with proroguing Parliament is but it's more likely than not that No 10 felt this was the best choice of a narrow set of options none of which were that good. Likewise Parliament probably didn't want to pass the Benn act, they've resisted working all together so far, but then felt they had to act and now Johnson is faced with an even narrower set of options.

And so it may well come down to a deal which everyone hates but feel compelled to pass. Boris Johnson isn't exactly going to be relishing passing a reheated version of May's deal either. Does it work for him in an election? Farage will scream betrayal and will be after the Tories, the ERG may seek to cause problems to prove their 'true' Brexiter credentials ahead of a possible leadership contest and Remain-minded voters hate him either way.

Long story short: For all the plans and tricks up everyone's sleeves I sort of feel events have got ahead of them all anyway.

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Essentially the same arguments that were put before, and which have won everywhere they’ve been tried except the Inner House of the Supreme Court of Scotland, where I suspect their lordships gave the appellants a consolation prize, knowing it wouldn’t ultimately be their decision anyway. The decision in favour of the appellants in Scotland is absolutely absurd in my view - prorogation is conducted on advice from the PM and using Royal Prerogative. Those two acts occur in a political space devoid of any controlling Act of Parliament. How can the Prime Minister have broken a law that doesn’t exist? By what yardstick can he be said to have been acting improperly? That’s a political judgment, not a judicial one.

---------- Post added at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:52 ----------

It’s worth a read ... Laura K has written up the transcript, if you’re not near a telly.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49717554

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For all the contempt in which I hold Boris Johnson I think it is also clear the PM of Luxembourg didn't need to hold a press conference next to an empty podium, it was pretty barbed diplomacy to say the least. I don't think they planned it but when the U.K Government clearly wanted to skip the conference the diplomatic approach would be been to join them, not hold it anyway.

Put it this way. If Macron had come to the U.K only to be met with some very loud yellow vest protestors he had wanted to avoid only for Boris Johnson to stand outside with an empty podium anyway we would, rightly, be condemning him for it.

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In other words ..... a plague on both their houses. ;)

One thing is certain, many books will be written, entire university law and politics modules will have to be rewritten and this will be popping up on ‘remember the time when’ TV shows for decades to come, possibly even at the expense of institutionalised Thatcher-hating, which would be quite something, given it’s the Left’s utterly schizophrenic attitude towards Brexit that has prolonged this (yes, they really, really should have just sat on their hands, let May get the WA through despite the ERG, and then waited for Farage to do their dirty work for them at the next election).

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While Luxembourg is trying to humiliate us. Pay back time.

It is well known the UK is a massive NET contributor to the EU, i.e we put more in than we get out...

Luxembourg is one of those Member States that gets more out than it puts in...

For example...

Budgets and Funding
How much does Luxembourg contribute and receive?
Member countries' financial contributions to the EU budget are shared fairly, according to means. The larger your country's economy, the more it pays – and vice versa. The EU budget doesn't aim to redistribute wealth, but rather to focus on the needs of all Europeans as a whole.

Breakdown of Luxembourg’s finances with the EU in 2017:

Total EU spending in Luxembourg: € 1.827 billion
Total EU spending as % of Luxembourg gross national income (GNI): 4.97 %
Total Luxembourg contribution to the EU budget: € 0.307 billion
Luxembourg contribution to the EU budget as % of its GNI: 0.84 %

How much does the UK contribute and receive?
Member countries' financial contributions to the EU budget are shared fairly, according to means. The larger your country's economy, the more it pays – and vice versa. The EU budget doesn't aim to redistribute wealth, but rather to focus on the needs of all Europeans as a whole.

Breakdown of the UK's finances with the EU in 2017:

Total EU spending in the UK: € 6.326 billion
Total EU spending as % of the UK’s gross national income (GNI): 0.28%
Total UK contribution to the EU budget: € 10.575 billion
The UK’s Contribution to the EU budget as % of its GNI: 0.46%

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Well I guess he has a reason to be piffed off, at least ...

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French Politician enters the Luxembourg row by suggesting the Luxembourg PM, Xavier Bettel, was trying lay a trap for Boris... latest tweet from Charles-Henri Gallois:-

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Unsurprising. It was diplomatically odd for Bettel to go ahead with Boris’ podium empty alongside his, unless his aim all along was to try to create bad headlines.

Interesting comment from Laura K on twatter:

“Whatever side you are on, having been outside the presser that never happened, it would have been total pandemonium if it had gone ahead - protesters were shouting and chanting as loudly as they could within metres of the podiums.”

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Guy verhofstadt at the LibDems conf.

It’s 4.5 mins in before he starts actually getting down it.

He says Thatcher was a supporter of the Singlemarket, she was. I don’t think was a fan of much else though EU related.

He also says that to compete with India, Russia, USA and China ( that he classes as Empires) we need to be part of the EU, which is tantamount to classing the EU as an Empire.

He says the EU should be reformed but offers no substance to it.



https://youtu.be/8v3xruukans

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Ah, Guy Verhofstwat, former prime minister of a country where going on to become an MEP is quite literally a promotion...

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Well he is comparing them to large nations, none of those are actually Empires, so I think he means it in a different way than we think of Empire.

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There are sound arguments for recognising imperial tendencies in both Russia and China. The USA, on the other hand, will never be forgiven for doing a substantial chunk of the liberation of Western Europe.

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Never be forgive by whom?

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By Stop the War types annoyed that WW2 complicates their goodie/badie view of the world I guess.

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A little off-topic but by whom? Putin seems quite ok with it.

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I don't think he was calling them imperialistic in that sense was he? He was make the point of a world of large economic blocs.

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Make no mistake, it is a matter of deep national shame in France, and her natural continental allies tend to fall in line on the issue. Not official government policy, obviously, but they properly hate the fact that it was the Anglo-Saxons who got them their countries back, starting in 1944.

I don’t think Putin cares either way what everyone’s take on the liberation of Western Europe is, but Russians generally dislike the way their role in the overall road to victory tends to be glossed over by western historians. They fought harder and shed more blood than anyone.

Mind you, they did try carving up Poland with Hitler and then occupied the whole of Eastern Europe for 40 years on the pretext of needing a buffer zone, so don’t feel too much sympathy for them.

And yes, we’re veering, quite a lot. :D

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Ah, France - fair enough...

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Important to further appreciate that his first language is not English.

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Has Bettel done the impossible and reunite the Tories.... this from Churchill’s grandson tonight:

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Not veer further but it's worth noting the French generally have a lot of respect for the American/British veterans and fallen of WW2. There are many examples of local graves of servicemen being maintained in the smaller villages by the locals. There is a story that I tried to Google but I am sure I remember about a French village who craft their own beer and named it after an American who would take beer back and forth to injured soldiers and in turn become somewhat of a legend in the town.

I know there are also programs where French people will visit and lay flowers at the graves of soldiers whose families can't visit.

I am not sure how you can measure the degree to which 'hate the fact that it was the Anglo-Saxons who got them their countries back' and I am sure Charles de Gaulle probably has something to do with it - he usually does - but it's less evident there is anything but respect for the soldiers themselves.

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Utmost respect for the soldiers, yes, and actually respect for the British school system that still busses kids over there to see the Allied cemeteries. But at the top of officialdom there’s always been a quiet embarrassment that they owe so much to the Anglosphere. It would be overstating it to say it drives policy, but as an undercurrent of prejudice it is a factor.

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From Supreme Court Twitter account

A reminder that the Brexit-related judicial review cases which are taking place at the UK Supreme Court tomorrow, can be viewed live via our website. More information about the case and how to watch is available here: https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/index.html

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Posted earlier.

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How often is a press conference arranged and held in such an environment? Where they are held outside eg Downing St, it is still press only.

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Main thing that one-man press conference showed was - despite BoJo's earlier optimistic blustering - the distance between the UK and the EU. They couldn't even agree on a press conference!

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It was a trap, Andrew, as you well know. I suppose you would be clapping your hands if Boris just walked straight into it.

We don't know how much of a gap there is between the UK and the EU. We just hear the rhetoric. I suspect we are closer to getting agreement than most of us think. But we won't know until the bitter end, will we?

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I think we are just running the clock down.

Any new proposals have to be signed off by the 27 EU countries, before the Council can agree.

As I posted from the BBC yesterday. We have less than seven weeks, and remember, 27 days ago, BJ thought he could have something in 30 days.

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Old Boy, you have confused me somewhat. I did not condemn BoJo for not attending. I explained what the press conferences illustrates.

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It is the EU that insists on on a backstop for THEMSELVES. Any proposals also have to go to through EU Parliament as well.


It was Merkel who originally came up with the "30 days".
Link

And as I've previously pointed out, if that is/was possible/plausible then the backstop can be removed from the Withdrawal Agreement, as it wouldn't have been in play for another year or so. The key notion behind saying the UK would be okish with leaving on Nov 1st, is that it says to the EU, that we also wouldn't be that bothered if no alternative was found by end of 2020.

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Gotta be a bit careful with those numbers as Luxembourg hosts;

• the Secretariat of the European Parliament;
• a Directorate-General and services of the European Commission, in particular the statistical office Eurostat and a large part of the translation service;
• the Court of Justice of the European Union, the General Court and the Civil Service Tribunal, with an Appeal Court for the European Unitary Patent due to take up residence in the near future;
• the European Court of Auditors;
• the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund;
• the Consumers, Health, Agriculture and Food Executive Agency (CHAFEA);
• the Publications Office of the European Union, official publisher of the publications of the institutions of the EU and in particular of the Official Journal of the European Union, which contains legislation in the form of regulations, directives and decisions.

It looks like around 81% of the funding from the EU is administration and is a hangover from the European Coal and Steel Community (source - http://www.europarl.europa.eu/extern...tml#luxembourg)

See also Belgium which receives a seemingly huge amount of funding but nearly 70% is spent on simply running the EU there

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I wonder if this is the biggest case the Supreme Court has had since its inception? I am guessing so.....Probably hard to get bigger than Parliament vs Government. At least until they approve the death penalty for people who stand on the left on escalators in London.

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A bit harsh Damien, especially if it's their first London visit.... A self obsessed city ;)

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C'mon, you're a bigger man than that - three strikes and they're out (unless it's the groups of TEFL students at the bottom of the escalators - kill them all, and let God sort them out).

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Use your boot ;)

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I do clear my throat quite loudly, that should be enough.

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Enough to get offered a throat sweet;)

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Suck on a Fisherman’s Friend...

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I'd be interested in the collective levels of blood pressure among the forum. Not from the events of today just the absence of keyboard bashing. :)

Hope we're all having a pleasant evening doing something else. I'm writing to the Government oddly enough, but not about the B word. ;)

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To be honest I've shown little interest in any of todays events.
I popped the TV news on briefly but soon got bored with them regurgitating the same 'he said, she said, they said' from the past few days . . reminded me of this place actually :cool:

My blood pressure did rise *slightly* when I slipped getting out of the shower though, but luckily no intrepid roving reporters were there to witness it. Couple of Brandies and some loud music through headphones soon had me right again . . bruises to follow :D

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BREAKING. Guy Verhofstadt has just stated in European Parliament during Brexit debate that UK Parliament is like Soviet Union.

He’s not doing you any favours Remainers. At weekend he talked at Illiberal Undemocrat Conference that the EU is like an Empire.

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I don't really mind if he talks the EU out of 39 billion quid and any chance of a deal.

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Verhofstwat is an Anglophobic clown. Best just ignored.

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He just called the prime minister Mrs Doubtfire .

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 

lol he's actually an Anglophile Aston Martin driver.

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 

I drive an Audi, doesn't mean I love sauerkraut and sausage.

Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion
 

This court case is turning into a farce,there seems to be a bunch of oldies fumbling about looking for bits of paper because they aren't computer literate.