U.S Election 2016
 

Tonight is the official start of the US Presidential Election with the first primary taking place tonight in Iowa.

The democratic side is looking reasonably like it will be Clinton who shall win the nomination. She is facing tough opposition from the 'American Corbyn' Bernie Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire and what happened with Obama should be remembered but it's hard to see him appealing to voters in the primaries to come and he actually behind in Iowa:

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/02/33.jpg

The Republican side is more interesting/terrifying. Trump actually seems to be winning and there is a chance he will be unstoppable by the time the moderate Republicans rally around one 'mainstream' candidate:

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/02/34.jpg

Ideally there Rubio (who is still quite right-wing, especially by European standards) will get a good enough results tonight to become the 'anyone but Trump' candidate.

Anyway it kicks off tonight.

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God help America if Trump ever becomes president.

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Trump is deeply unpopular among most Americans. If he wins the nomination the Republicans are effectively conceding the election unless, and this is where it is scary, something serious comes up against Clinton.

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I think there is more chance of the American population electing a British born gay male as President then there is of them electing a female President.

And to make myself unpopular, I'm stating right now that I want Trump to get the nomination and I hope he wins the election.

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Can I ask why, Mark?

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Plenty of people said that about the chances of a black president being elected.

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I thought you had to be American born to run for president? IIRC it's why Arnie can't run 'cos he's Austrian.

Could be pretty dangerous.:erm:

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Which part Hugh?

And yes, you have to be American born. Which is why I said there was more chance of a foreign born person being elected before a woman.

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Plenty of people went on absolutely ridiculous regarding Obama's push to the White House. The amount of times I heard that statement, I still question whether people were actually stupid enough to genuinely believe this or whether they were just a bunch of asses.

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The fun part of this is that it's another case of their constitution being a mess and the Founding Fathers' failure to be specific.

The line that forbids non 'American-born' citizens from becoming President is this:

The problem is that there is no actual definition of what is meant by natural born Citizen. Does it mean they were born as an American citizen or that they were born in America (anyone born in America has US citizenship)? Whilst logically we would say 'well, either' that isn't actually watertight.

So Ted Cruz who was born in Canada to American parents and had American citizenship at birth (via his parents) might not be eligible to run. Donald Trump keeps saying this and whilst we all suspect the Supreme Court would find he is eligible to run the Republicans are a bit concerned he could be subjected to court challenges should they nominate him from either Trump, the Democrats or some nut-job.

It's almost bound to be challenged and cause chaos all because the term has never been defined properly leaving political opponents the ambiguity they need. :dunce:

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There is a non-trivial chance of something serious coming up against Clinton. She has clearly acted illegal with regards to that dodgy email server of hers. She should be going to prison, not to the primaries.

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Well exactly although I am not quite sure the extent of her legal situation there. There seems to be a lot of claims and counterclaims and the obvious political game being played by some. Still it leaves her at risk and that's how we get a nutter in the White House. It's too late for anyone else to come in now though...

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Although the email chances were determined to be top secret they were not allocated that level of security when they were sent/received so did she actually do anything wrong? Yes it was stupid to do what she did but at the time I don't think she did anything illegal.

If Trump does get the Republican nomination then they can wave goodbye to the presidency... Reminds me a bit of a certain political situation over here which is all I will say on the matter as we've have enough threads about the UK situation ;)

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I want Trump to win.
I think he'd make America and the rest of the world interesting.

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Yea like the old Chinese curse 'may you live in interesting times'

Trump looks like & acts like a movie President, lets hope its not like Escape from New York or similar.

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People wrote off Ronald Reagan as a B movie actor but he proved to be quite a good president.

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Thing is Reagan WAS an Actor in his prior life... Trump isn't :D

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Rambo and Arnie are too old. but they still got Seagal!

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It seems that even the US voters in Iowa have some common sense when it comes to the republican candidate :D

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They stared into the abyss and thought, no thanks ...

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Good result. Rubio did better than expected so he is now favorite to win the nomination and he is the best chance the Republicans have of winning.

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I think the bigger suprise of the night was Bernie Sanders. He was tied with Hilary which, given his position as a democratic socialist, is possibly unexpected?

The democratic run-in could be as interesting as the GOP one ..

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Yes it's a huge surprise, I think everyone expected him to be the "Ron Paul" candidate. A lot of noisy supporters who will be too stoned to go to vote.

My take:
Even if Clinton wins the nomination this isn't a good sign as it speaks to her general unpopularity.

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-t...ze-candidates/

I really hope this is a joke..

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What do you mean by "even US voters in Iowa have some common sense"

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No it is not.:rolleyes:

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Putin has been nominated for a prize before. Anyone can be nominated.

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I guess he means the level of support for the "GOP" favoured candidate Rubio?

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Close, have corrected it for you.

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You don't need to correct my post, you can just answer the question yourself ..

Regarding Cruz, he is as unsavoury as Trump, if not more so:

Political positions of Ted Cruz

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Some interesting facts and background here for those of us who don't usually pay much attention to what's going on over there:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35406324

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Well you did answer for me ;)

As for Cruz he's likely to keep his interference to internal issuse unlike Trump who's stupid enough to truly believe that the USA under his guidance can force the world to follow his edicts. As I don't live there nor ever wish to even visit there then anyone but Trump is preferable.

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All Republicans are the same, but with Trump for me it is better the Devil you know.

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I answered a question but I didn't re-write your post :)

I visit there on a regular basis, mainly the west coast, and from the people I talk to, neither of these two front runners are "preferable". I haven't looked yet in detail at how Rubio differs policy-wise from Cruz but I am guessing he is significantly more mainstream. Let's hope so ..

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As a business man he's already tried to sway the law in this country relating to his investments, golf course and windfarms, can you imagine how much pressure he'll try as president? I'd rather we have an opportunity to work with the USA and not be forced to work for them.

That's before all his hate speech came to the front of his policies.

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Trump is anything but your typical republican, in fact he's been accused of not being a republican at all (for good reasons).

Most of the people else on the stage are professional politicians, they come out with ******** but it has to be fairly consistent ******** in order to continue their careers. Trump is a free agent, he can say anything with no obligation to be consistent to it in his future life - and he evidently has.

One argument is that since he is so free he is the perfect candidate to dismantle the corrupting lobbying systems that businessmen use to pay politicians. But of course that's all predicated on him actually genuinely wanting to do that.

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Well if the Yanks can elect a film star (Regan) as President than anything is possible in la la La Land.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35538361

Do I build a nuclear shelter now or wait and see?:(

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Would you actually want to live through a nuclear war? Having watched Threads and The Day After Tomorrow I wouldn't.

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Trump has been expected to win New Hampshire for a while. I don't think last night changed anything except expect Jeb Bush in the race for now.

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Put your head between your legs and..... :D

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Delighted with last night, Trump won and Clinton got beaten soundly.

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There is nothing great about Trump winning in my opinion..

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This adds the contest: http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/us-...witter-desktop

The most Conservative judge on the Supreme Court has died. It's likely his replacement will be nominated by whomever wins in November. Republicans will stall any nomination until then.

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Scalia is dead? This is tragic and huge.

Shame I actually liked him.

He isn't the most conservative judge, but the loudest, Thomas is more conservative I understand, but he never speaks.

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Fair enough. Scalia is probably the more obvious one then. He tends to write the dissenting opinion when the left is in the majority isn't he?

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Yes usually that's true. If he is replaced by a liberal that will skew the supreme court quite considerably.

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I wonder how long the Republicans can stall the nomination and it would be politically damaging for them to do so? A year is a long time to be without a Supreme Court Justice but it seems just short enough to be realistically possible, especially if they make it to the Summer and the whole thing shuts down in the time between the conventions and Election day.

The chance of him getting a pro-choice, pro-Obamacare, anti-Citizens United justice onto the court this year is close to zero IMO.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35572261

The comedy continues..

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Is it true that Jeb Bush is the brother of George Dubya? If so, Trump is way better than him as President.

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Well, much as it pains me to defend Jeb Bush, at least Jeb has history as the Governor of a State; all Trump has is a history of self-publicity and bankruptcy.

Trump isn't even a very successful businessman - he has a string of bankruptcies, and he would be twice as wealthy as he is now if he had just invested his father's legacy in a tracker fund.

He's incoherent, mysoginistic, and changes his position more times than a chess grandmaster - watch this Stephen Colbert video for examples.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpKiP_gmDS8

The best that can be said about Trump is that he is not Cruz - but that's like preferring Syphilis to AIDS....

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Also it's not a secret Jeb Bush is the brother of President G W Bush. None of the realistic candidates for the Republican nomination are hardly encouraging. Rubio, the main 'non-nutter' candidate is quite right wing.

The best candidate IMO is Clinton. Moderation and competence seems to have become less popular though.

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Yes l echo those same thoughts as well.:tu:

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Trump has no right to attack others for their family connections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Trump

His own father claimed to be a real estate developer though he was infamous
as a landlord who refused to lease to African Americans and was a member of the KKK.. Mind Donald would think this was a good thing I suspect.

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Completely agree with all this. Jeb actually has a very, very good record as governor of florida. He got florida out of the red and also managed to grow floridas economy a great deal. Plus he seems far more intelligent than his brother...

Sadly i think george has sullied the bush name quite a bit so bringing george w in to help jeb may largely backfire.

At the moment it seems the two front runners bernie sanders and donald trump are succeeding because theyre promising completely unrealistic things without explaining how they're going to afford/implement it.

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Despite her protestations, Clinton is in the pocket of Wall Street. She has also changed her position on gay marriage and LGBT rights since running for President. She's now trying to paint Sanders as a single issue candidate. He's been an equality supporter in all senses for years.

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Linky

:rofl:

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So Trump won South Carolina, for once I am not supporting the loser.

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Things will change once they get out of the backwater states... It's a bit like comparing inner cities to rural counties in the UK elections. Unless Rubio or Bush get the nomination then there's likely to be a democratic president next term.

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Oh, he's a major loser, just not in the Primaries.... :D:D

---------- Post added at 10:37 ---------- Previous post was at 10:36 ----------

Well, it won't be Bush....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35624420

---------- Post added at 10:37 ---------- Previous post was at 10:37 ----------

Well, it won't be Bush....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35624420

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Just read it, not my fault I woke up less than an hour ago :D

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The 'establishment' will now be all in for Rubio. Three-way race.

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what a great campaign this is -in the past the American people have chosen white presidents now they have a black president and soon they could have an orange president with a dodgy hair piece :shocked:

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I didn't know that David Dickinson was running?

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/02/13.jpg

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Sorry, I still feel that Trump will win the nomination. He's speaking to those Americans who are a sandwich short of a full picnic. I'm still backing him to win the election on a whole. If he doesn't even get the nomination, I'll ban myself from here for a month.

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The nodding donkeys will only take him so far though as they certainly won't take him to the White House that's for sure Mark.

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Willing to take any bet on that den.

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My little bit of gambling is on the horses and the occasional bingo trip so l think l will leave it as that Mark.;)

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Linky

Super Tuesday's going to be interesting. Unless one of his rivals drop out Trump's going to get the nomination.

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As long as Clinton doesn't get taken down by the e-mail thing she should beat him. The other hope is that as the Primaries move into more balanced states that Rubio will take it although it's looking less likely.

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Sorry, still think he is going to be the next President of the United States of America.

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And god help us if he does...

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How many delegates does he need to win on March 1 to get the nomination?

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He can't win it on March 1. If he wins everything though he'll probably win the nomination.

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Trump's benefitting from an electorate who're fed up with the status quo I reckon. Times have been tough for the US internally and externally and I think here's a growing frustration about a number of key issues much like migration is driving anti-EU sentiment in the UK. When people have got to the point that they'll vote in huge numbers for a nutcase like Trump you have to look to the alternatives and wonder just how out of touch they've been to let things get this bad.

Of course anyone with a conspiracy hat on might think that if he gets power Trump is going to be the one who ultimately delivers the final attack on freedoms etc. which they're convinced is on its way...

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Or they could adopt our system where people vote in huge numbers , in their several millions perhaps and get their voice heard by having 1 mp, how out of touch does anyone have to be to realise that isn't democracy

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I'm getting a bit worried, I'm agreeing more and more with Daddy's posts. :)

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Trump will win.For too long it's been bush or clinton,clinton or bush with a token obama thrown in.Boris will be prime minister here.So it may be that a couple of buffoons will be running the usa/uk but it will surely be anything but dull politics with those two in charge.Bring them on.

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I would prefer 'dull' to an irresponsible buffoon, with the intelligence and temper of a baboon, like Trump.

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Boris is a buffoon, but he is not unintelligent...

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l could have not said it better myself.

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You don't fall for his act either

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Trump is not unintelligent.

It's very easy to dismiss someone like that, problem is that's what everyone has done from the outset and look where he is now.

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'Cunning' is not the same as 'intelligent', imho....

He is a multiple bankrupt, multiple marriage flip-flopping bloviating blowhard who has convinced a section of the US populace he is a successful straight-talking businessman...

He is appealing to the lowest-common denominator, and then going even lower, and getting away with it - one can only assume the Dems are keeping their powder dry until he actually gets the nomination...

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Trump has just announced that if he is President he is going to introduce tougher liberal laws so 'the press can't lie'. Puts him in conflict with the first amendment (but he probably can't do it).

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You do worry about Americans though; they might just elect him. They elected Ronald Reagan on the basis he was in a film they half liked a bit.

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I think the fact he had been Governor of California for 8 years may have helped...

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Well he turned out to be a very good president, so maybe there's method for n the madness.

---------- Post added at 19:23 ---------- Previous post was at 19:17 ----------

Funny thing is though I reckon he has higher moral standards than Clinton!

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Crap films though....:D

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You have pretty low standards if you think he was pretty good...

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What did he do that didn't meet your standards?

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Regan is highly regarded I know that much. Surely the worst president since Nixon is G.W.Bush?

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Him and Thatcher were really good pals apparently but Denise did not want a foursome!!! They even named a aircraft carrier after him good job we don't have an HMS Margaret Thatcher that would really frighten a prospective enemy off.

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Trump cleared up with at least 7 states in Super Tuesday, Cruz 2 and Rubio 1. Alaska, still to be announced, is apparently very close between Trump and Cruz.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35703911

A uni professors model built in 19- apparently says Trump has a 97% chance of winning the election against Clinton, and a 99% chance against Sanders. So looks like I will be right come November time. I shan't say I told you so, but I will think it.

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There are a lot of Republicans who won't vote for Trump if he gets the nomination. If the election is Trump v Clinton, then Clinton has it in the bag.

Come Election Day I will happily say I told you so. :D

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Chris, if Trump doesn't win the election, you can ban me from here for a whole month. That's how confident I am of Trump winning.

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Perhaps you can eat that straw hat which someone on this forum so famously said they would eat if a certain channel arrived a while back Mark.:D