Cable Forum - Brexit discussion

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Mick	14-09-2017 13:05

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35916384)

I'd have another look at those figures. They account for 12-15% of the UK economy, not UK exports. The first line of the article you linked indicates 44% of exports, with the 'Rotterdam effect' accounting for about 2% of that 44%.

I read that the EU membership fee we pay each year, is equivalent to 7% in a trade tariff fee with the EU, outside customs union.

Once we leave and are outside the customs union, we would expect to be charged and pay around 2.5% in trade tariff revenues. The article said, the membership of the EU, along with it's hefty fee compared paying just 2.5% in revenues, is the biggest case of mis-selling that dwarfs the banking PPI scandal. If I can find the article I will link to it.

pip08456

14-09-2017 13:49

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35916394)

I look forward to the link as it is facts like this that diminish the "Doom and Gloom" scenario that remainers are consistantly putting forward.

Once both brexiteers and remoaners wake up to the fact it is going to happen then sensible discussion can then take place.

Igni quite rightly picked me up on an error in my previous post in that the EU is responsible for 44% of exports, it still doesn't change the fact that it is only responsible of 15% of the economy and WTO rules could balance that 15% out.

If anyone else sees a mistake in my post or can post a genuine rebuttal I look forward to it.

The debate awaits.

Ignitionnet

14-09-2017 15:07

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35916390)

My bad and I grant you that correction, so that means the total effect to UK economy if we left with no trade agreement would be a maximum of 12-15%.

However, WTO rules would kick in and would to some extent reduce that figure as would trade under WTO with the rest of the world until trade agreements were finalised. This (potentially) could mean a boom in the UK economy.

Not so much of the "Doom and Gloom" scenario now is there?

Is there nothing else in my post you disagree with?

You're entitled to your opinion. I disagree with it, in large part because most of the evidence is to the contrary of it and I've no idea where you get the idea that WTO rules would balance out loss of trade with the EU, but don't see any point in getting hung up recycling old debates.

---------- Post added at 15:07 ---------- Previous post was at 15:03 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35916394)

As the guy in the video I linked noted tariffs are nothing in the grand scheme. Non-tariff barriers are far more of an issue.

If it were as black and white as that it would make no sense for the various forecasts to be predicting the worst outcome for the UK being reverting to WTO. Pretty much the only group making economic forecasts that believe WTO is the best option for the UK is hyper-partisan. Everyone else from dedicated internationalists to those entirely indifferent consider things the opposite way.

There's a really good reason why Leave.EU and Vote Leave didn't campaign on the economy.

Osem	14-09-2017 16:42

Re: Brexit discussion

And here's the stats re Faisal Islam's Tweets on Brexit. It'd be difficult for them to be less positive than his esteemed journalist colleagues wouldn't it so:

Quote:

Faisal has sent 1,467 tweets about Brexit since 24 June 2016.
87 tweets had a positive sentiment, that’s just 6% of his total tweets.
697 tweets were neutral, that’s 47.5%.
683 tweets were negative, that is 46.5% of his total Brexit tweets having a negative sentiment.

https://order-order.com/2017/09/14/b...ce-referendum/

He's the most positive about it of the three but it's perfectly obvious that none of them are happy and are finding it hard to hide that fact judging by their output.

Mr K	14-09-2017 17:08

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35916420)

And here's the stats re Faisal Islam's Tweets on Brexit. It'd be difficult for them to be less positive than his esteemed journalist colleagues wouldn't it so:

https://order-order.com/2017/09/14/b...ce-referendum/

He's the most positive about it of the three but it's perfectly obvious that none of them are happy and are finding it hard to hide that fact judging by their output.

Call me cynical, might the 'order-order' website itself be biased ? i'm sure it's not, but you never know... This Guido Fawkes guy, is he a Lib Dem ??? ;) He seems to have a repeated problem with alcohol related convictions...

People tend to only read the views they want to hear.

denphone

14-09-2017 17:25

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35916424)

Call me cynical, might the 'order-order' website itself be biased ? i'm sure it's not, but you never know... This Guido Fawkes guy, is he a Lib Dem ??? ;) He seems to have a repeated problem with alcohol related convictions...

People tend to only read the views they want to hear.

That is certainly true Mr K.;)

Osem	14-09-2017 18:23

Re: Brexit discussion

The facts re the Tweets are the facts there's no disputing that and there's plenty of anti-Tory stuff and a lot more on Guido's site for those who bother to look. But of course it's easier for some folks to just dismiss the stuff they don't like. They ridicule the notion that there's any media bias whatsoever against Brexit then when some evidence is put forward in relation to leading journalists they claim it's biased. I'm sure if the journalists concerned have been terribly misrepresented they'll be telling us all about it. Let's wait and see shall we...

Mick	14-09-2017 18:46

Re: Brexit discussion

The £ vs $ is higher than it's ever been since brexit. Currently $1.34 to the £1. This is on the news that interest rates may increase next month, after they were held today.

This time 10 years ago. When I went to US for a month, the exchange rate was $2 to the pound. :erm:

Mr K	14-09-2017 18:57

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35916444)

Didn't get much value for my devalued pound on the continent last week ! Interest rate increases might mean trouble for anyone with a mortgage or loan, aswell as increasing inflation. Hard times ahead, all part of the Brexit dividend. Fortunately paid my mortgage off long ago.

heero_yuy

14-09-2017 18:59

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Unemployment fell to a new 42-year low as employment increased by another 125,000 people in the three months to June.

An additional 338,000 people are in work now compared with last summer, with a total of 32.07m people employed, the Office for National Statistics said.

The employment rate is at a record high of 75.1pc, while unemployment is at 4.4pc, its lowest level since 1975.

Source

So lower than all the time we have been in the EU.

Osem	14-09-2017 19:04

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35916444)

It's swings and roundabouts. If Sterling were to rise appreciably we'd all be getting dire warnings about the negative effects on UK PLC's exports. Currencies rise and fall for all sorts of reasons and when the next bit of really bad EU news hits home on the markets so the Euro will fall. Germany has been a major beneficiary of a lower than would be the case currency simply because the DM would a lot higher as a stand alone currency. Try telling Merkel that a lower currency is all bad news.

I'm still waiting for someone to tell me how much the rise in Sterling has actually cost JLP because it's easy for companies to report a large fall in profits and blame it all on Brexit without backing that up, especially if the leadership of those companies happens to have a pro-EU agenda.

Mr K	14-09-2017 19:33

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35916449)

Source

So lower than all the time we have been in the EU.

And what quality of jobs are they ? Zero hours contracts and people struggling on the minimum wage.

Osem	14-09-2017 20:09

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35916449)

Source

So lower than all the time we have been in the EU.

But you're forgetting that Brexit is destroying the UK and our only hope is that those kindly humble folke running the Brussels show take pity on us and allow us to stay in their club, give up control of our laws, currency etc. and pay them for the privilege. Silly you!!!

Mick	14-09-2017 21:21

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qtx (Post 35916393)

At this point I think it goes without saying that no agreement will be made in time with regards to a Brexit deal.

Would be no big deal according a leading British businessman and inventor, Sir James Dyson.... He claims Europe is a declining part of world trade....

Quote:

Britain should make a "clean break" from the European Union instead of pursuing any kind of interim deal, according to one of the country's best-known businessmen.

Sir James Dyson told Sky News that a transitional agreement would be "a muddle".

"You end up having to do one transitional arrangement, and then another one. So just have a clean break, it's not a big deal."

Sir James, who backed the Brexit campaign in 2016, said he was comfortable with Britain instead switching to the tariff system used by the World Trade Organisation, and to turning its attention away from Europe.

"Europe is a declining part of world trade," he said.

"It's now down to 12% and in about five years' time it will be 9% of world trade. The fastest growing sector is, of course, in the far east, China and the far eastern countries where we're growing by about 80% or 90% a year. That's where the opportunities are - not Europe."

Sir James said he had no regrets about Brexit but stressed the need for international talent.

Dyson employs around 3,500 people in the UK, and that figure is expected to almost double in the coming four or five years.

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-should-...dyson-11034559

Mr K	14-09-2017 21:37

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35916496)

Would be no big deal according a leading British businessman and inventor, Sir James Dyson.... He claims Europe is a declining part of world trade....

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-should-...dyson-11034559

Wouldn't take any notice of Dyson, his vacuums are expensive 'must haves' that everyone can replicate now for a fraction of the price.

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