Re: Brexit (New).
 

Depends what options the EU put in front of her. Long delay or no delay and she’s already tied to the former.

What we have learned from this process is that “strong and stable” Government is the “coalition of chaos” and we are going to get whatever the 27 EU leaders agree upon.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think you’re grasping. Everything we have heard from the EU says they won’t grant any extension without a concrete plan. If she’s not even going to ask for a long extension, why exactly are they going to give her one, with or without options?

No, it’s chicken time. May’s deal or no deal. It will be interesting to see what that prospect shakes out of the tree.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think we know what it shakes. May’s deal.

The variable is that it’s the leaders of the EU27 by unanimous agreement on any extension. Until now everything has been delegated to Barnier/Juncker/Tusk.

The EU benefits from the uncertainty in the UK. A nine month or longer extension brings May’s government down and potentially resets any negotiations. What better way to demonstrate to other countries that leaving is a bad idea?

I think you are potentially right and they’re bored of it now. The EU stood firm and we blinked.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think they will give her a short extension to give TM the time to put the legislation in place, but that is all.

It will be Theresa May's deal if she can get it through by 29 March. Otherwise no deal, here we come.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The one certainty is that it’s not going to be no deal. We’ve shown ourselves as completely unprepared. There will be a General Election before that.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

But her MV would need to be substantially changed to pass the Bercow test. Does adding a short extension qualify?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

There is no alternative to no deal if there is no deal

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The next session of Parliament is expected to start in May after which his ruling doesn’t apply.

On top of that MPs can vote to bypass the rule.

That’s if he implemented the rule. Thus far he’s just spoke from the Chair, acknowledging it’s unlikely to be his last word on the matter.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Again, you’re grasping. Did you read May’s statement this morning? She’s appealing to public frustration as justification for just getting Brexit done. These aren’t the words of someone angling for time to hold an election.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The one thing I give no weight to is the words of a Prime Minister of a government in paralysis. She will do what the EU wants, paying whatever price they ask us to pay. We’ve no cards left to play.

“No deal is better than a bad deal”, until we didn’t pass the necessary legislation anyway despite having two years.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

A new session would require a Queen's Speech to be passed (I think) which could be a new obstacle to overcome.

I get the MP vote to overrule but how can that pass when the ERG want No Deal?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

l thought this was a good tweet this morning from Nick Robinson.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

What are Theresa's May's choices if the EU say yes to her extension request?
- Keep on plugging away at something akin to her current deal but with a slight modification so it can be voted on again.
- Come up with a softer deal that will around some of the opposition.
- Preside over a disastrous no-deal.
- Resign and ask for another extension.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Now you're grasping. Historically May has shown she is capable of saying one thing and reversing that decision in the next breath.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

What no one seems to be talking about is that May's deal is only buying time to get us a proper deal so whose going to be doing that? I don't see the Government surviving for too long so it's unlikely to be May doing it. Corbyn? A new Tory leader?