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The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
So here we are folks. Continue all election related discussion here, and use the poll to indicate who you actually voted for.. If for any reason you did not vote, even if you wanted to, please use the ‘did not vote’ option.
For reference, weeks 1-6 opinion polls are here: Week 1: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712705 Week 2: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712720 Week 3: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712736 Week 4: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712754 Week 5: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712767 Week 6: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712778 |
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I'm intrigued. What was the 'Other' vote?
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Living in the South Wales valleys it's a foregone conclusion. But I made the effort, I went for an early walk and arrived at the polling station at 7:02am.
I voted Reform, I don't personally like my Reform candidate but he's the one most likely to come second place to the person I dislike even more who wears red. 102 years here of Labour and I don't see it changing in my lifetime. |
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I would like to know who our independent minded voter is though! ---------- Post added at 14:30 ---------- Previous post was at 14:28 ---------- Quote:
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They were on the left side of the spectrum. :D
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Trouble for Rishi, our Tory voter hasn't turned out yet :D
As tactical Lib dem vote for me, even if the candidate is a plonker. |
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I always thought I’d have felt total joy at the death of the Conservative Party but Starmer leaves me just feeling some kind of hollow void about it.
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The twins and I voted just after 2pm. They were still on the first ballot box out of the 6 laid on, and the staff looked bored to tears.
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Will be heading out to vote about 8:30pm after I’ve got finished work and my wife is back from the hairdressers.
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On the basis of CFs notoriously accurate exit poll, I'm predicting the Conservative party to get zero seats...
Treated myself to the last bottle of champagne in Lidl. They seem to have had a run on it ;) |
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I dug deep, found my inner racist and voted Reform. :D
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Whom ever wins. The tax we all pay will be more, utility bills will increase, UKs standing in the world will get lower. And at least one group of public servants will strike. Happy days
Reuters IPSOS poll released Tuesday found the only person who could beat Trump in November was Michelle Obama. Though the former first lady has repeatedly said she does not have presidential aspirations. |
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Exit poll gives Labour a landslide.
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All the usual caveats apply about exit polls, but WOW!
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1720126981 |
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Quite an underwhelming Labour number compared to many of the forecasts and the Tories well above expectations.
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I don’t know what’s more delicious - the lovely large balloon glass of Hine Rare VSOP Cognac that I am currently imbibing, or sweet, sweet Tankie tears… :D |
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Nobody would have found it funnier than me if the Tories had fell behind the Lib Dems. A party I’ve criticised and berated almost day in day out for years on this forum. ---------- Post added at 22:45 ---------- Previous post was at 22:41 ---------- Quote:
It’ll be interesting as the night evolves to get an indicator of whether the Reform projected vote moved back to the Tories or whether there’s a sense that the Labour vote perhaps was slightly complacent (entirely possible given polls for months have predicted a landslide) and turnout dips. All nuanced points I’d expect a politics forum to have some interest in but no we just have Hugh dishing out insults to people who disagree with him over Ukraine and the chances of a Trump win (but not a desire for a Trump win). |
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That’s what’s funny… Polls are just polls, not certainty - criticising an overwhelmingly winning party because they didn’t do as well as people forecast they would is pretty amusing. Anyway, in related matters… https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1720129829 |
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Underwhelming “compared to many of the forecasts”.
We all know that polls are just that - indeed even the exit poll is just that. Labour could still outperform the exit poll in the actual results. I think it was a perfectly acceptable point to make that invited better than your insults. As did my first response and this will be my last. |
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The problem with playing devil’s advocate is that the devil already has plenty of advocates on the payroll and there’s really no need for you to take it up as a hobby… ;) |
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Whilst not using tiresome memes. ---------- Post added at 23:32 ---------- Previous post was at 23:30 ---------- Quote:
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---------- Post added at 23:51 ---------- Previous post was at 23:50 ---------- And will some of you please just GET A ROOM |
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The Exit Poll doesn't have a single actual independent winning but it does look like Corbyn might win in Islington. |
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<sarcasm>You'll forgive me if I'm not surprised by the result.</sarcasm>
Bringing back National Service ("Get Some In!" and all that cobblers), practically criminalising being long-term sick, allowing the DWP to think they know better than a doctor if someone's unfit for work? Political suicide. I don't trust Labour, either. But as we thought in 1997,<sarcasm> they could hardly do worse.</sarcasm> There still wasn't a None Of The Above option, was there? I am not apathetic because I didn't vote. I didn't vote because I was following Heinlein's Principle to its logical conclusion, i.e. vote against, and I don't trust any of them. Hence my decision was entirely logical. Plus I forgot. :erm: Clarke and Douglas had a point: "We want a President who has to be dragged kicking and screaming into the White House - then he'll get time off for good behaviour." - shrewd political commentator, Arthur C. Clarke's Imperial Earth The major problem - one of the major problems, for there are several - one of the many major problems with governing people is that of who you get to do it - or rather of who manages to get people to let them do it to them. To summarise: It is a well-known and much lamented fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it. To summarise the summary: Anyone who is capable of getting themselves elected President should on no account be allowed to do the job. To summarise the summary of the summary: People are a problem. - Fit the Thirteenth, The (immortal!) Hitch-Hiker's Guide To The Galaxy "Though you're in the RAF You'll never see a plane..." "They take two years off your life "Now isn't that a sin? "There's only one way to get out, "And that's to get some in! "Get Some In!" - theme song, "Get Some In!" |
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Reform have taken Ashfield, thats not too far away from me ...
---------- Post added at 03:31 ---------- Previous post was at 02:34 ---------- Farage has also won his seat in Clacton. ---------- Post added at 04:00 ---------- Previous post was at 03:31 ---------- The Conservatives have completely crashed in Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. Ashfield (as mentioned above) was lost to Reform. Bolsover, Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Erewash & Rushcliffe all lost to Labour. Rushcliffe has been Conservative almost as long as I have been alive, Ken Clarke was its MP for 39 years. |
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SNP pretty much wiped out in Central Scotland. Having lost 27 seats already.
I am still shocked so many hardened SNP supporters have all switched to Labour. |
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Labour have officially won, having just reached the required 326 seats.
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Labour has remained the same in England but shed votes in urban areas like London and gained them in marginal seats across the rest of the country. Lost a handful of seats because of Gaza.
But the Scotland result is amazing for them. Scotland went back to Labour in a huge way that one one was expecting. |
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I was expecting a change to Labour for Scotland but no where near that much of a shift. SNP pretty much wiped out in the central belt.
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This election is mental. I need sleep now
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Liz Truss have been booted out.
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Labour took the seat in Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland but it was incredibly close 210 ish votes in it and turn out was approximately 55%
I have a faint hope of optimism this morning, Labour dont need to deliver a land of milk and honey, they just need to be not as crap as the tories were |
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Labour get a massive majority with lowest vote share of any winning party. Just a 1.8% increase on their share in 2019, when they lost heavily.
As expected the country did not turn to Labour, conservative voters did not turn to Labour. They voted LibDem or Reform. Starmer is going to find its very real, very soon. |
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Once we get away from the mutual masturbation exercise overnight that was the Westminster bubble journalists* selling their '1997 moment' there's something very different about these numbers. People decisively swung towards Blair and the manifesto upon which he stood. The UK, and in particular England, remains right wing in the popular vote. FPTP and Reform have blended together to give a distorted result in terms of seats (and absolutely, that's how we run legitimate elections). However as the SNP vote collapse shows - 98% of Scottish MPs from 50% of the vote in 2015, something in the region of 16% of the seats from 30% of the vote this time - that can be a soft underbelly. It also leaves Starmer at a crossroads with how to govern. A manifesto light on detail, and more commitments not to do things than to do things, could see different wings of the party emerge in the later stages of the Parliament based on where they are susceptible to either the Lib Dems (presumably to their left) and Conservatives/Reform on the right. The Conservative Party could absolutely devour itself in the next couple of years of infighting. I'll cheer that on every step of the way. However a competent leader, a few years out of Government and a grubby backroom deal with Farage.... Labour needs a plan that it didn't communicate in the last few weeks. I hope they have one, and it's not pandering to the right. *As an example - here Chris Mason: 'Starmer tsunami' as voters show ruthless drive to eject Tories - I don't know where the Starmer Tsunami happened but it wasn't the ballot boxes of England. |
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You’ve got a touch of the Farages about you , wander round making wild statements but when pressed either unwilling or unable to answer basic questions. Oh, and of course the superiority complex. |
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A Labour landslide with a vote share lower than Corbyn got 7 years ago.....
Nige won this for Labour by taking all the swivel eyed loon votes off the Tories. , I knew something good must come from him eventually ! Getting to love our electoral system, and Nige ;) |
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Labour with a large majority is going to be tempted to embark on a so-called progressive agenda that would be wildly popular on its own back benches but expose the fragile extent of its support in the country. Take, for example, the way gender ideology became a campaign issue in the final fortnight and the number of even quite senior Labour figures who seem unable to define ‘woman’ - Angela Rayner was reduced to complaining on LBC that the issue had become a ‘political football’, seemingly failing to grasp that voters repeatedly raising the question on TV debates and radio phone ins during an election campaign is not the same thing as MPs posturing and yelling at each other in the Commons. It could be gender ideology, it could be immigration, it could be something else entirely, but if Starmer is tempted to think that his power base is in his Commons majority and not in the goodwill of the two-thirds of people who didn’t vote for him, he will come unstuck very quickly. And we have just seen exactly how volatile the electorate is right now, and how quickly a large majority can disappear. Time will tell. |
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And poor Nige didn't get anymore seats than the Greens. Not that he gives a toss about that or Clacton's potholes. He's bigged himself up proper and thats the main thing.
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He’s in a position whereby he has the almost impossible task of needing to try and make a silk purse out of a sows ear. However he might just make a rather nice novelty luggage tag (Thank you Terry Pratchett iirc) |
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Labour did not really win, rather the Tories lost, the Lib Dems played a blinder and Reform hoovered up the right wing/little England votes that were lent to the Tories in 2019.
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Labour (or rather Old Tory Lite), having backed themselves into all sorts of fiscal/policy corners to win, will huff & puff for 5 years without making material/visible change leaving the door open for a possible hung parliament with the agenda driven by ConForm and its agenda of hate & bigotry. |
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I voted labour for the first time ever, went to sleep feeling quite good about it too, went from being a protest voter to Conservative out of obligation back to protester and now full blown adult voting in mine and the countries best interest
Reform and greens got 21% of the vote between them for 2% of the seats and Labour get 100% of the power for 34% of the vote, what a lousy system we have |
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No worries. And thanks.
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German car. Good choice.
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only 5 hours till the PM clocks off :)
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Quite right too. Long hours culture is the bane of the British workplace.
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Well that's that then... The exit polls weren't too far out. So now we see how it all goes then in another 10+ years when we've all had enough of Labour we'll want another change and around it goes. :D
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Labour's vote efficiency in this election is mad.
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Interesting that in week 1 of the all-important CF poll, Conservatives got 4 votes and Reform got 3. In the exit poll, Reform got 9 and Conservatives got none. What changed?
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The outgoing Rees-Mogg was asked about the pending leadership contest and has already opened the debate on Farage joining/merging with the right wing of the Tory party. ---------- Post added at 14:28 ---------- Previous post was at 14:24 ---------- Quote:
This GE has thrown up 3 or 4 times the number of marginals than before, many of which have Reform in second place. Is Farage of 2029 going to be the Le Pen of today? |
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He'll then quickly forget about Reform, Clacton etc, just has he's done with his several other populist parties. They're all just vehicles for him |
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The actual vote percentages are interesting.
Labour 33.7% Conservative 23.7% Liberal Democrat 12.2% Reform UK 14.3% So in the end Labour only got 10% more, yet way way more seats. Reform got more votes than the Lib Dems, but only 4 seats compared to LD's 71. Its not hard to see why a lot of people think our system is not actually very representative. ---------- Post added at 16:49 ---------- Previous post was at 16:45 ---------- Oh, and right down the list, the good old "Monster Raving Loony Party" got 5,814 votes. :D |
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Of course if we did have PR we wouldn't necessarily have had the same outcome - no need for tactical voting etc. |
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So, from now on we will have to stop working at 6pm on Fridays as Starmer does?
This is a rhetorical question. |
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Not a massive point of interest but still noteworthy.
Starmer has appointed two non-MPs to the cabinet. Sir Patrick Valance of COVID fame is the Science Minister. Fair enough. But probably bigger news. James Timpson of Timpson - the key cutters company - has been made Prisons Minister! Both are being appointed to the Lords to be able to do this. I quite like this decision. Timpson recruits out of prisons quite a bit and I saw an interview with him on Channel 4 a few months ago where he had an excellent understanding of it. Putting people who understand the topic as Ministers makes sense to me. For balance, I said the same about making Cameron Foreign Secretary. We should make the cabinet more qualified like the Americans do rather than try to find someone from the 99% of MPs who are humanities graduates to be the Minister for Science or whatever. |
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Well as Timpson specialise in keys he should make a good Prisions minister:D
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A risk, in an unscrupulous era, would be giving these “experts” political accountability at the same time sets them up as fall guys. Or worse, “expert” advice gets designed to curry favour with a ruling party. In Scotland there’s a tendency towards “expert groups” or “advisory groups” of publicly funded third sector orgs representing “lived experience”. A cynic may, occasionally, view this as a shield for political parties to dodge political accountability. If Lords get appointed to junior positions they subsequently resign from due to incompetence or error (as opposed to personal scandal) the buck should really stop with the corresponding Secretary of State. In a sense I have less opposition to Cameron as foreign secretary, as a clear and unambiguous political operative. If we oppose Ministers being in the Lords we shouldn’t have a House of Lords. Note - “Experts” follows my hypothetical dive into an unscrupulous era. Not a judgement on the expertise of either Vallance or Timpson. |
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The turnout was low, the lowest since 2001.
Was it apathy ? The need for ID ? or something else ? |
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This picture shows how bad it went for the blue party this election.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...chmentid=31092 |
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I think there were dynamics in both 2019 (Get Brexit Done) and 2024 (a Reform surge) that make the numbers look more dramatic than changes within the population as a whole. I think that the Labour victory - telegraphed since forever in opinion polls - slumped in the polls slightly on the day. Maybe the Conservatives scare tactics worked a bit (1% or 2%).
Ultimately I don't think the Labour Party - the people or manifesto - sell the vision for the UK that people will ultimately want. It'll do for now. Far larger numbers backed the Labour Party in 2017 and 2019, despite a major campaign against the then leader. There was some good stuff in there - ultimately the plan for Labour was to eliminate it in policy and people. Sure, they won. What do the unhappy people do next? |
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Has anyone noticed the state of the country under labour? Quote:
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I was impressed by Starmer's speech outside No. 10. So different from the past Tory PM's, a breath of fresh air.
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/infighting intensifies :D |
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The last piece of that map can be coloured in now.
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From today’s Reformagraph…
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1720263836 <cough>None of the last 4 Tory Prime Ministers lasted one term…<cough> |
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Yeah him serving one term would make him the 3rd PM to do so since Blair, Cameron being the other one.
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Only my prediction mind. |
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Stolen from twitter
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Guess nothing changes, get in with less votes than Jeremy got when he lost. Reform get around the same numbers as libdems. Labour in Wales get less votes than ever before and get more seats. Any other countries would have riots by now. UK swings to the left. Europe and I guess in the near future USA swing to the right. What fun this is going to be.Good luck I think you are going to need it.
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my dads in hospital and im in Great Yarmouth. |
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Strange that Mr K, and other usual suspects on here, aren’t complaining that two thirds of the country didn’t vote for this government?
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I'm a long standing supporter of PR. What is a bit hypocritical is those that have suddenly become PR converts as it now suits them , when they've strongly opposed in the past. |
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The 2011 referendum had both main parties campaigning against PR, and we voted as we were told. Who do you think should be running the place as a result of the recent election ? |
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