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-   -   The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024 (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33712811)

Chris 04-07-2024 11:24

The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
So here we are folks. Continue all election related discussion here, and use the poll to indicate who you actually voted for.. If for any reason you did not vote, even if you wanted to, please use the ‘did not vote’ option.

For reference, weeks 1-6 opinion polls are here:

Week 1: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712705

Week 2: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712720

Week 3: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712736

Week 4: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712754

Week 5: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712767

Week 6: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712778

spiderplant 04-07-2024 11:48

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
I'm intrigued. What was the 'Other' vote?

jfman 04-07-2024 11:53

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36178449)
I'm intrigued. What was the 'Other' vote?

I voted for a smaller party with no chance of winning in my constituency. It was that or not vote. I figured I might as well help someone save their deposit since I had a postal vote it was low effort.

Escapee 04-07-2024 13:53

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Living in the South Wales valleys it's a foregone conclusion. But I made the effort, I went for an early walk and arrived at the polling station at 7:02am.

I voted Reform, I don't personally like my Reform candidate but he's the one most likely to come second place to the person I dislike even more who wears red.

102 years here of Labour and I don't see it changing in my lifetime.

Chris 04-07-2024 14:30

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36178449)
I'm intrigued. What was the 'Other' vote?

Count Binface, hopefully. Could also be Alba in Scotland, Alliance in Northern Ireland, Family Party, English Democrats or any number of independent or regional cranks.

I would like to know who our independent minded voter is though!

---------- Post added at 14:30 ---------- Previous post was at 14:28 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178450)
I voted for a smaller party with no chance of winning in my constituency. It was that or not vote. I figured I might as well help someone save their deposit since I had a postal vote it was low effort.

Oh go on, do tell … was it Tommy Robinson? Or Colin Fox? :D

jfman 04-07-2024 14:32

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
They were on the left side of the spectrum. :D

Mr K 04-07-2024 14:49

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Trouble for Rishi, our Tory voter hasn't turned out yet :D

As tactical Lib dem vote for me, even if the candidate is a plonker.

jfman 04-07-2024 15:38

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
I always thought I’d have felt total joy at the death of the Conservative Party but Starmer leaves me just feeling some kind of hollow void about it.

Taf 04-07-2024 16:21

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
The twins and I voted just after 2pm. They were still on the first ballot box out of the 6 laid on, and the staff looked bored to tears.

mrmistoffelees 04-07-2024 16:43

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Will be heading out to vote about 8:30pm after I’ve got finished work and my wife is back from the hairdressers.

Hugh 04-07-2024 17:39

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
1 Attachment(s)
<hopeful snigger>

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...20and%20Hanham

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...7&d=1720111104

Mr K 04-07-2024 17:43

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
On the basis of CFs notoriously accurate exit poll, I'm predicting the Conservative party to get zero seats...

Treated myself to the last bottle of champagne in Lidl. They seem to have had a run on it ;)

Ramrod 04-07-2024 18:20

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
I dug deep, found my inner racist and voted Reform. :D

1701-e 04-07-2024 18:27

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36178449)
I'm intrigued. What was the 'Other' vote?

Alliance NI

Itshim 04-07-2024 19:04

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Whom ever wins. The tax we all pay will be more, utility bills will increase, UKs standing in the world will get lower. And at least one group of public servants will strike. Happy days
Reuters IPSOS poll released Tuesday found the only person who could beat Trump in November was Michelle Obama. Though the former first lady has repeatedly said she does not have presidential aspirations.

Hugh 04-07-2024 19:23

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
1 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1720117389

jfman 04-07-2024 19:24

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Itshim (Post 36178497)
Whom ever wins. The tax we all pay will be more, utility bills will increase, UKs standing in the world will get lower. And at least one group of public servants will strike. Happy days
Reuters IPSOS poll released Tuesday found the only person who could beat Trump in November was Michelle Obama. Though the former first lady has repeatedly said she does not have presidential aspirations.

Welcome to the failed state that is the United Kingdom. Sold/privatised every asset, created a housing bubble to mortgage everyone’s future.

denphone 04-07-2024 19:44

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 36178488)
I dug deep, found my inner racist and voted Reform. :D

Well at least you voted and that should be applauded.:)

jfman 04-07-2024 19:47

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36178501)
Well at least you voted and that should be applauded.:)

Voters have got us into this mess ;)

denphone 04-07-2024 20:05

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178502)
Voters have got us into this mess ;)

And depending on ones thinking they can get us out of this mess as well.;)

Mr K 04-07-2024 20:21

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178502)
Voters have got us into this mess ;)

Yes it's high time the electorate were blamed. They've made a lot of stupid decisions over the last 15 years, then always blame politicians. You get what you vote for.

denphone 04-07-2024 22:02

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Exit poll gives Labour a landslide.

Hugh 04-07-2024 22:04

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
1 Attachment(s)
All the usual caveats apply about exit polls, but WOW!

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1720126981

jfman 04-07-2024 22:09

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quite an underwhelming Labour number compared to many of the forecasts and the Tories well above expectations.

peanut 04-07-2024 22:23

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178521)
Quite an underwhelming Labour number compared to many of the forecasts and the Tories well above expectations.

Tories are forecast to lose 241 seats. That will be a disaster for them if it's right.

Hugh 04-07-2024 22:29

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178521)
Quite an underwhelming Labour number compared to many of the forecasts and the Tories well above expectations.

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2024/07/2.gif

I don’t know what’s more delicious - the lovely large balloon glass of Hine Rare VSOP Cognac that I am currently imbibing, or sweet, sweet Tankie tears… :D

jfman 04-07-2024 22:45

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178523)
https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2024/07/2.gif

I don’t know what’s more delicious - the lovely large balloon glass of Hine Rare VSOP Cognac that I am currently imbibing, or sweet, sweet Tankie tears… :D

I’m not sure what’s Tankie tears about an observation of the polls in recent days had a larger gap.

Nobody would have found it funnier than me if the Tories had fell behind the Lib Dems. A party I’ve criticised and berated almost day in day out for years on this forum.

---------- Post added at 22:45 ---------- Previous post was at 22:41 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by peanut (Post 36178522)
Tories are forecast to lose 241 seats. That will be a disaster for them if it's right.

It absolutely is.

It’ll be interesting as the night evolves to get an indicator of whether the Reform projected vote moved back to the Tories or whether there’s a sense that the Labour vote perhaps was slightly complacent (entirely possible given polls for months have predicted a landslide) and turnout dips.

All nuanced points I’d expect a politics forum to have some interest in but no we just have Hugh dishing out insults to people who disagree with him over Ukraine and the chances of a Trump win (but not a desire for a Trump win).

Hugh 04-07-2024 22:51

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178524)
I’m not sure what’s Tankie tears about an observation of the polls in recent days had a larger gap.

Nobody would have found it funnier than me if the Tories had fell behind the Lib Dems. A party I’ve criticised and berated almost day in day out for years on this forum.

You found a forecast majority of 176, with a forecast increase in seats of 205, "underwhelming"…

That’s what’s funny…

Polls are just polls, not certainty - criticising an overwhelmingly winning party because they didn’t do as well as people forecast they would is pretty amusing.

Anyway, in related matters…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1720129829

jfman 04-07-2024 22:57

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Underwhelming “compared to many of the forecasts”.

We all know that polls are just that - indeed even the exit poll is just that. Labour could still outperform the exit poll in the actual results.

I think it was a perfectly acceptable point to make that invited better than your insults. As did my first response and this will be my last.

Pierre 04-07-2024 23:13

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by peanut (Post 36178522)
Tories are forecast to lose 241 seats. That will be a disaster for them if it's right.

Considering some poles, that we’re putting LibDems ahead. If the Tories keep 130 -140, I think they’ll take that.

Hugh 04-07-2024 23:16

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178527)
Underwhelming “compared to many of the forecasts”.

We all know that polls are just that - indeed even the exit poll is just that. Labour could still outperform the exit poll in the actual results.

I think it was a perfectly acceptable point to make that invited better than your insults. As did my first response and this will be my last.

It was more the fact it was a point you felt you had to make…

The problem with playing devil’s advocate is that the devil already has plenty of advocates on the payroll and there’s really no need for you to take it up as a hobby… ;)

Pierre 04-07-2024 23:32

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178526)
criticising an overwhelmingly winning party because they didn’t do as well as people forecast they would is pretty amusing.

Criticising a party or remarking on the inaccuracy of mental pollsters..


Whilst not using tiresome memes.

---------- Post added at 23:32 ---------- Previous post was at 23:30 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178529)
It was more the fact it was a point you felt you had to make…

A point of fact?

Quote:

The problem with playing devil’s advocate is that the devil already has plenty of advocates on the payroll and there’s really no need for you to take it up as a hobby… ;)
Probably best you put the ovaltine on.

Chris 04-07-2024 23:51

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36178528)
Considering some poles, that we’re putting LibDems ahead. If the Tories keep 130 -140, I think they’ll take that.

It’s interesting how it was massive sample MRP polls, supposedly with a crystal ball capable of predicting results at constituency level, that were predicting Con/LD parity and have now apparently been shown to have fallen well short of their promised accuracy.

---------- Post added at 23:51 ---------- Previous post was at 23:50 ----------

And will some of you please just GET A ROOM

Damien 04-07-2024 23:52

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36178533)
It’s interesting how it was massive sample MRP polls, supposedly with a crystal ball capable of predicting results at constituency level, that were predicting Con/LD parity and have now apparently been shown to have fallen well short of their promised accuracy.

To be fair this did fall within some of their ranges albeit at the higher end.

Paul 05-07-2024 00:58

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36178449)
I'm intrigued. What was the 'Other' vote?

There are a lot of independant candidates.

---------- Post added at 00:58 ---------- Previous post was at 00:57 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178502)
Voters have got us into this mess ;)

Non voters have only themselves to blame. ;)

Damien 05-07-2024 01:16

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36178538)
There are a lot of independant candidates.

It's northern Ireland and the speaker's seat.

The Exit Poll doesn't have a single actual independent winning but it does look like Corbyn might win in Islington.

Anonymouse 05-07-2024 01:48

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
<sarcasm>You'll forgive me if I'm not surprised by the result.</sarcasm>

Bringing back National Service ("Get Some In!" and all that cobblers), practically criminalising being long-term sick, allowing the DWP to think they know better than a doctor if someone's unfit for work? Political suicide.

I don't trust Labour, either. But as we thought in 1997,<sarcasm> they could hardly do worse.</sarcasm>

There still wasn't a None Of The Above option, was there? I am not apathetic because I didn't vote. I didn't vote because I was following Heinlein's Principle to its logical conclusion, i.e. vote against, and I don't trust any of them. Hence my decision was entirely logical.

Plus I forgot. :erm:

Clarke and Douglas had a point:

"We want a President who has to be dragged kicking and screaming into the White House - then he'll get time off for good behaviour."

- shrewd political commentator, Arthur C. Clarke's Imperial Earth

The major problem - one of the major problems, for there are several - one of the many major problems with governing people is that of who you get to do it - or rather of who manages to get people to let them do it to them.
To summarise: It is a well-known and much lamented fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it.
To summarise the summary: Anyone who is capable of getting themselves elected President should on no account be allowed to do the job.
To summarise the summary of the summary: People are a problem.

- Fit the Thirteenth, The (immortal!) Hitch-Hiker's Guide To The Galaxy

"Though you're in the RAF
You'll never see a plane..."

"They take two years off your life
"Now isn't that a sin?
"There's only one way to get out,
"And that's to get some in!
"Get Some In!"


- theme song, "Get Some In!"

Paul 05-07-2024 04:00

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Reform have taken Ashfield, thats not too far away from me ...

---------- Post added at 03:31 ---------- Previous post was at 02:34 ----------

Farage has also won his seat in Clacton.

---------- Post added at 04:00 ---------- Previous post was at 03:31 ----------

The Conservatives have completely crashed in Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.

Ashfield (as mentioned above) was lost to Reform.
Bolsover, Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Erewash & Rushcliffe all lost to Labour.

Rushcliffe has been Conservative almost as long as I have been alive, Ken Clarke was its MP for 39 years.

Stephen 05-07-2024 04:43

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
SNP pretty much wiped out in Central Scotland. Having lost 27 seats already.

I am still shocked so many hardened SNP supporters have all switched to Labour.

Paul 05-07-2024 04:59

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Labour have officially won, having just reached the required 326 seats.

Damien 05-07-2024 05:34

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Labour has remained the same in England but shed votes in urban areas like London and gained them in marginal seats across the rest of the country. Lost a handful of seats because of Gaza.

But the Scotland result is amazing for them. Scotland went back to Labour in a huge way that one one was expecting.

Stephen 05-07-2024 05:47

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
I was expecting a change to Labour for Scotland but no where near that much of a shift. SNP pretty much wiped out in the central belt.

Damien 05-07-2024 06:04

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
This election is mental. I need sleep now

denphone 05-07-2024 06:58

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Liz Truss have been booted out.

mrmistoffelees 05-07-2024 07:27

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Labour took the seat in Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland but it was incredibly close 210 ish votes in it and turn out was approximately 55%

I have a faint hope of optimism this morning, Labour dont need to deliver a land of milk and honey, they just need to be not as crap as the tories were

Pierre 05-07-2024 08:15

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Labour get a massive majority with lowest vote share of any winning party. Just a 1.8% increase on their share in 2019, when they lost heavily.

As expected the country did not turn to Labour, conservative voters did not turn to Labour. They voted LibDem or Reform.

Starmer is going to find its very real, very soon.

mrmistoffelees 05-07-2024 08:22

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36178562)
Labour get a massive majority with lowest vote share of any winning party. Just a 1.8% increase on their share in 2019, when they lost heavily.

As expected the country did not turn to Labour, conservative voters did not turn to Labour. They voted LibDem or Reform.

Starmer is going to find its very real, very soon.

Do you have any evidence to support that Starmer doesn’t already know this ?

Pierre 05-07-2024 09:17

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36178563)
Do you have any evidence to support that Starmer doesn’t already know this ?

What a strange question.

jfman 05-07-2024 09:31

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36178562)
Labour get a massive majority with lowest vote share of any winning party. Just a 1.8% increase on their share in 2019, when they lost heavily.

As expected the country did not turn to Labour, conservative voters did not turn to Labour. They voted LibDem or Reform.

Starmer is going to find its very real, very soon.

One could, perhaps, even describe it as underwhelming?

Once we get away from the mutual masturbation exercise overnight that was the Westminster bubble journalists* selling their '1997 moment' there's something very different about these numbers. People decisively swung towards Blair and the manifesto upon which he stood.

The UK, and in particular England, remains right wing in the popular vote. FPTP and Reform have blended together to give a distorted result in terms of seats (and absolutely, that's how we run legitimate elections). However as the SNP vote collapse shows - 98% of Scottish MPs from 50% of the vote in 2015, something in the region of 16% of the seats from 30% of the vote this time - that can be a soft underbelly.

It also leaves Starmer at a crossroads with how to govern. A manifesto light on detail, and more commitments not to do things than to do things, could see different wings of the party emerge in the later stages of the Parliament based on where they are susceptible to either the Lib Dems (presumably to their left) and Conservatives/Reform on the right.

The Conservative Party could absolutely devour itself in the next couple of years of infighting. I'll cheer that on every step of the way. However a competent leader, a few years out of Government and a grubby backroom deal with Farage....

Labour needs a plan that it didn't communicate in the last few weeks. I hope they have one, and it's not pandering to the right.

*As an example - here Chris Mason: 'Starmer tsunami' as voters show ruthless drive to eject Tories - I don't know where the Starmer Tsunami happened but it wasn't the ballot boxes of England.

mrmistoffelees 05-07-2024 09:43

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36178564)
What a strange question.

What an expected response.

You’ve got a touch of the Farages about you , wander round making wild statements but when pressed either unwilling or unable to answer basic questions.

Oh, and of course the superiority complex.

Mr K 05-07-2024 09:52

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
A Labour landslide with a vote share lower than Corbyn got 7 years ago.....

Nige won this for Labour by taking all the swivel eyed loon votes off the Tories. , I knew something good must come from him eventually ! Getting to love our electoral system, and Nige ;)

Chris 05-07-2024 09:53

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36178563)
Do you have any evidence to support that Starmer doesn’t already know this ?

I think you misunderstood the rhetorical nature of Pierre’s point. However, if you want to chart the extent to which Starmer does or doesn’t understand the difference between his support in Parliament and his support in the country, it’ll come within his first term when he tries to enact something unpopular. Tony Blair found out when Gordon Brown tried to ‘escalate’ fuel duty and eventually had to back down when tanker drivers started picketing fuel depots. And they had somewhat greater popular support than Labour does today.

Labour with a large majority is going to be tempted to embark on a so-called progressive agenda that would be wildly popular on its own back benches but expose the fragile extent of its support in the country. Take, for example, the way gender ideology became a campaign issue in the final fortnight and the number of even quite senior Labour figures who seem unable to define ‘woman’ - Angela Rayner was reduced to complaining on LBC that the issue had become a ‘political football’, seemingly failing to grasp that voters repeatedly raising the question on TV debates and radio phone ins during an election campaign is not the same thing as MPs posturing and yelling at each other in the Commons.

It could be gender ideology, it could be immigration, it could be something else entirely, but if Starmer is tempted to think that his power base is in his Commons majority and not in the goodwill of the two-thirds of people who didn’t vote for him, he will come unstuck very quickly. And we have just seen exactly how volatile the electorate is right now, and how quickly a large majority can disappear.

Time will tell.

Mr K 05-07-2024 10:03

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
And poor Nige didn't get anymore seats than the Greens. Not that he gives a toss about that or Clacton's potholes. He's bigged himself up proper and thats the main thing.

mrmistoffelees 05-07-2024 10:11

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36178571)
I think you misunderstood the rhetorical nature of Pierre’s point. However, if you want to chart the extent to which Starmer does or doesn’t understand the difference between his support in Parliament and his support in the country, it’ll come within his first term when he tries to enact something unpopular. Tony Blair found out when Gordon Brown tried to ‘escalate’ fuel duty and eventually had to back down when tanker drivers started picketing fuel depots. And they had somewhat greater popular support than Labour does today.

Labour with a large majority is going to be tempted to embark on a so-called progressive agenda that would be wildly popular on its own back benches but expose the fragile extent of its support in the country. Take, for example, the way gender ideology became a campaign issue in the final fortnight and the number of even quite senior Labour figures who seem unable to define ‘woman’ - Angela Rayner was reduced to complaining on LBC that the issue had become a ‘political football’, seemingly failing to grasp that voters repeatedly raising the question on TV debates and radio phone ins during an election campaign is not the same thing as MPs posturing and yelling at each other in the Commons.

It could be gender ideology, it could be immigration, it could be something else entirely, but if Starmer is tempted to think that his power base is in his Commons majority and not in the goodwill of the two-thirds of people who didn’t vote for him, he will come unstuck very quickly. And we have just seen exactly how volatile the electorate is right now, and how quickly a large majority can disappear.

Time will tell.

I think Starmer knows exactly the position he’s in, and in his speech this morning he acknowledged that the power lay in the good will of the electorate

He’s in a position whereby he has the almost impossible task of needing to try and make a silk purse out of a sows ear. However he might just make a rather nice novelty luggage tag (Thank you Terry Pratchett iirc)

ianch99 05-07-2024 10:40

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Labour did not really win, rather the Tories lost, the Lib Dems played a blinder and Reform hoovered up the right wing/little England votes that were lent to the Tories in 2019.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36177845)
I think we will be surprised how many votes, not seats, Reform get. Given that Farage has only one core message (hate), this is very depressing for the future of this country.

This is the most depressing part of this GE. The Tories will quickly turn on themselves, Sunak will leave before the end of the year and the ones left will fight like rats in a sack. They will then splinter with the ones desperate for power (and money) will do a deal with Farage and form a new ConForm party.

Labour (or rather Old Tory Lite), having backed themselves into all sorts of fiscal/policy corners to win, will huff & puff for 5 years without making material/visible change leaving the door open for a possible hung parliament with the agenda driven by ConForm and its agenda of hate & bigotry.

TheDaddy 05-07-2024 11:29

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
I voted labour for the first time ever, went to sleep feeling quite good about it too, went from being a protest voter to Conservative out of obligation back to protester and now full blown adult voting in mine and the countries best interest

Reform and greens got 21% of the vote between them for 2% of the seats and Labour get 100% of the power for 34% of the vote, what a lousy system we have

Hugh 05-07-2024 11:30

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178566)
One could, perhaps, even describe it as underwhelming?

Once we get away from the mutual masturbation exercise overnight that was the Westminster bubble journalists* selling their '1997 moment' there's something very different about these numbers. People decisively swung towards Blair and the manifesto upon which he stood.

The UK, and in particular England, remains right wing in the popular vote. FPTP and Reform have blended together to give a distorted result in terms of seats (and absolutely, that's how we run legitimate elections). However as the SNP vote collapse shows - 98% of Scottish MPs from 50% of the vote in 2015, something in the region of 16% of the seats from 30% of the vote this time - that can be a soft underbelly.

It also leaves Starmer at a crossroads with how to govern. A manifesto light on detail, and more commitments not to do things than to do things, could see different wings of the party emerge in the later stages of the Parliament based on where they are susceptible to either the Lib Dems (presumably to their left) and Conservatives/Reform on the right.

The Conservative Party could absolutely devour itself in the next couple of years of infighting. I'll cheer that on every step of the way. However a competent leader, a few years out of Government and a grubby backroom deal with Farage....

Labour needs a plan that it didn't communicate in the last few weeks. I hope they have one, and it's not pandering to the right.

*As an example - here Chris Mason: 'Starmer tsunami' as voters show ruthless drive to eject Tories - I don't know where the Starmer Tsunami happened but it wasn't the ballot boxes of England.

jfman, please accept my apologies for my inappropriate comments to you last night/early this morning - I got carried away in the "heat of the moment", but that is no excuse.

jfman 05-07-2024 12:03

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
No worries. And thanks.

Mr K 05-07-2024 12:10

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36178577)
This is the most depressing part of this GE. The Tories will quickly turn on themselves, Sunak will leave before the end of the year and the ones left will fight like rats in a sack. They will then splinter with the ones desperate for power (and money) will do a deal with Farage and form a new ConForm party.

Labour (or rather Old Tory Lite), having backed themselves into all sorts of fiscal/policy corners to win, will huff & puff for 5 years without making material/visible change leaving the door open for a possible hung parliament with the agenda driven by ConForm and its agenda of hate & bigotry.

Don't ever try and talk anyone down from a window ledge anytime will you? ;)

jfman 05-07-2024 12:25

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
German car. Good choice.

papa smurf 05-07-2024 13:01

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
only 5 hours till the PM clocks off :)

Chris 05-07-2024 13:04

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quite right too. Long hours culture is the bane of the British workplace.

peanut 05-07-2024 13:07

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Well that's that then... The exit polls weren't too far out. So now we see how it all goes then in another 10+ years when we've all had enough of Labour we'll want another change and around it goes. :D

jfman 05-07-2024 13:10

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36178450)
I voted for a smaller party with no chance of winning in my constituency. It was that or not vote. I figured I might as well help someone save their deposit since I had a postal vote it was low effort.

I'm sure nobody is interested but this candidate finished stone last, and lost their deposit. :)

Damien 05-07-2024 14:17

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Labour's vote efficiency in this election is mad.

spiderplant 05-07-2024 14:19

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Interesting that in week 1 of the all-important CF poll, Conservatives got 4 votes and Reform got 3. In the exit poll, Reform got 9 and Conservatives got none. What changed?

ianch99 05-07-2024 14:28

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36178597)
Don't ever try and talk anyone down from a window ledge anytime will you? ;)

Show me I am wrong :)

The outgoing Rees-Mogg was asked about the pending leadership contest and has already opened the debate on Farage joining/merging with the right wing of the Tory party.

---------- Post added at 14:28 ---------- Previous post was at 14:24 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36178573)
And poor Nige didn't get anymore seats than the Greens. Not that he gives a toss about that or Clacton's potholes. He's bigged himself up proper and thats the main thing.

Nige does not mind. 2029 is his target. I was listening to one of the (defeated) Reform candidates and he admitted as such.

This GE has thrown up 3 or 4 times the number of marginals than before, many of which have Reform in second place. Is Farage of 2029 going to be the Le Pen of today?

Mr K 05-07-2024 14:59

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36178611)

Nige does not mind. 2029 is his target. I was listening to one of the (defeated) Reform candidates and he admitted as such.

This GE has thrown up 3 or 4 times the number of marginals than before, many of which have Reform in second place. Is Farage of 2029 going to be the Le Pen of today?

Trump 2024 will now be Nige's target. If his orange buddy wins, they'll both insist he's the UK ambassador, or else no trade.

He'll then quickly forget about Reform, Clacton etc, just has he's done with his several other populist parties. They're all just vehicles for him

Hugh 05-07-2024 15:01

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36178611)
Show me I am wrong :)

The outgoing Rees-Mogg was asked about the pending leadership contest and has already opened the debate on Farage joining/merging with the right wing of the Tory party.

---------- Post added at 14:28 ---------- Previous post was at 14:24 ----------



Nige does not mind. 2029 is his target. I was listening to one of the (defeated) Reform candidates and he admitted as such.

This GE has thrown up 3 or 4 times the number of marginals than before, many of which have Reform in second place. Is Farage of 2029 going to be the Le Pen of today?

Depends - Reform will have to reform its rules and practices to be (or seen to be) democratic in how it’s run and candidate selection; at the moment, it’s Farage’s personal fiefdom, but you can’t run a (British) mainstream political party that way. If more people get a say in how it’s run and what its policies should be, it may not be as effective.

Paul 05-07-2024 16:49

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
The actual vote percentages are interesting.

Labour 33.7%
Conservative 23.7%
Liberal Democrat 12.2%
Reform UK 14.3%

So in the end Labour only got 10% more, yet way way more seats.
Reform got more votes than the Lib Dems, but only 4 seats compared to LD's 71.

Its not hard to see why a lot of people think our system is not actually very representative.

---------- Post added at 16:49 ---------- Previous post was at 16:45 ----------

Oh, and right down the list, the good old "Monster Raving Loony Party" got 5,814 votes. :D

TheDaddy 05-07-2024 19:37

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36178616)
The actual vote percentages are interesting.

Labour 33.7%
Conservative 23.7%
Liberal Democrat 12.2%
Reform UK 14.3%

So in the end Labour only got 10% more, yet way way more seats.
Reform got more votes than the Lib Dems, but only 4 seats compared to LD's 71.

Its not hard to see why a lot of people think our system is not actually very representative.

---------- Post added at 16:49 ---------- Previous post was at 16:45 ----------

Oh, and right down the list, the good old "Monster Raving Loony Party" got 5,814 votes. :D

Labour got over half a million fewer votes under sir beer than they did under corbyn...

spiderplant 05-07-2024 19:41

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36178616)
The actual vote percentages are interesting.

Labour 33.7%
Conservative 23.7%
Liberal Democrat 12.2%
Reform UK 14.3%
Green 6.8%
SNP 2.5%
PC 0.7%

So if we did have Proportional Representation, what government would we have?

jfman 05-07-2024 19:51

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36178628)
So if we did have Proportional Representation, what government would we have?

As it's essentially a guess - Labour, LDs and Green. The first two certainly with a proper coalition arrangement, the third potentially or simply confidence and supply.

Of course if we did have PR we wouldn't necessarily have had the same outcome - no need for tactical voting etc.

Ms NTL 05-07-2024 20:26

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
So, from now on we will have to stop working at 6pm on Fridays as Starmer does?

This is a rhetorical question.

daveeb 05-07-2024 20:43

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ms NTL (Post 36178632)
So, from now on we will have to stop working at 6pm on Fridays as Starmer does?

This is a rhetoric question.

Rhetorical or not I guess it depends on your personal circumstances, who you are, what you do, when you started work etc. I doubt he'll be ducking important meetings (e.g. Cobra meetings), state events (e.g. D Day memorials) etc just because it's Friday 6 pm.

Hugh 05-07-2024 21:26

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36178627)
Labour got over half a million fewer votes under sir beer than they did under corbyn...

But received a higher percentage of those who actually voted - 33.8% vs 32.1%

Pierre 05-07-2024 21:56

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178638)
But received a higher percentage of those who actually voted - 33.8% vs 32.1%

Massive. Mind blowing.

Damien 05-07-2024 23:58

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Not a massive point of interest but still noteworthy.

Starmer has appointed two non-MPs to the cabinet. Sir Patrick Valance of COVID fame is the Science Minister. Fair enough.

But probably bigger news. James Timpson of Timpson - the key cutters company - has been made Prisons Minister!

Both are being appointed to the Lords to be able to do this.

I quite like this decision. Timpson recruits out of prisons quite a bit and I saw an interview with him on Channel 4 a few months ago where he had an excellent understanding of it.

Putting people who understand the topic as Ministers makes sense to me. For balance, I said the same about making Cameron Foreign Secretary.

We should make the cabinet more qualified like the Americans do rather than try to find someone from the 99% of MPs who are humanities graduates to be the Minister for Science or whatever.

Stephen 06-07-2024 00:08

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Well as Timpson specialise in keys he should make a good Prisions minister:D

jfman 06-07-2024 00:11

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36178642)
Not a massive point of interest but still noteworthy.

Starmer has appointed two non-MPs to the cabinet. Sir Patrick Valance of COVID fame is the Science Minister. Fair enough.

But probably bigger news. James Timpson of Timpson - the key cutters company - has been made Prisons Minister!

Both are being appointed to the Lords to be able to do this.

I quite like this decision. Timpson recruits out of prisons quite a bit and I saw an interview with him on Channel 4 a few months ago where he had an excellent understanding of it.

Putting people who understand the topic as Ministers makes sense to me. For balance, I said the same about making Cameron Foreign Secretary.

We should make the cabinet more qualified like the Americans do rather than try to find someone from the 99% of MPs who are humanities graduates to be the Minister for Science or whatever.

I’m not necessarily against the concept however there could be better ways of Governments getting expertise into the decision making process without elevating more people to the Lords.

A risk, in an unscrupulous era, would be giving these “experts” political accountability at the same time sets them up as fall guys. Or worse, “expert” advice gets designed to curry favour with a ruling party.

In Scotland there’s a tendency towards “expert groups” or “advisory groups” of publicly funded third sector orgs representing “lived experience”. A cynic may, occasionally, view this as a shield for political parties to dodge political accountability.

If Lords get appointed to junior positions they subsequently resign from due to incompetence or error (as opposed to personal scandal) the buck should really stop with the corresponding Secretary of State.

In a sense I have less opposition to Cameron as foreign secretary, as a clear and unambiguous political operative. If we oppose Ministers being in the Lords we shouldn’t have a House of Lords.

Note - “Experts” follows my hypothetical dive into an unscrupulous era. Not a judgement on the expertise of either Vallance or Timpson.

Paul 06-07-2024 02:01

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
The turnout was low, the lowest since 2001.
Was it apathy ? The need for ID ? or something else ?

Paul 06-07-2024 02:06

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
1 Attachment(s)
This picture shows how bad it went for the blue party this election.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...chmentid=31092

jfman 06-07-2024 02:25

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
I think there were dynamics in both 2019 (Get Brexit Done) and 2024 (a Reform surge) that make the numbers look more dramatic than changes within the population as a whole. I think that the Labour victory - telegraphed since forever in opinion polls - slumped in the polls slightly on the day. Maybe the Conservatives scare tactics worked a bit (1% or 2%).

Ultimately I don't think the Labour Party - the people or manifesto - sell the vision for the UK that people will ultimately want. It'll do for now. Far larger numbers backed the Labour Party in 2017 and 2019, despite a major campaign against the then leader.

There was some good stuff in there - ultimately the plan for Labour was to eliminate it in policy and people. Sure, they won. What do the unhappy people do next?

TheDaddy 06-07-2024 04:14

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178638)
But received a higher percentage of those who actually voted - 33.8% vs 32.1%

Oh, that's okay then... :erm:

Has anyone noticed the state of the country under labour?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36178642)
Not a massive point of interest but still noteworthy.

Starmer has appointed two non-MPs to the cabinet. Sir Patrick Valance of COVID fame is the Science Minister. Fair enough.

But probably bigger news. James Timpson of Timpson - the key cutters company - has been made Prisons Minister!

Both are being appointed to the Lords to be able to do this.

I quite like this decision. Timpson recruits out of prisons quite a bit and I saw an interview with him on Channel 4 a few months ago where he had an excellent understanding of it.

Putting people who understand the topic as Ministers makes sense to me. For balance, I said the same about making Cameron Foreign Secretary.

We should make the cabinet more qualified like the Americans do rather than try to find someone from the 99% of MPs who are humanities graduates to be the Minister for Science or whatever.

Timpson are great for reforming prisoners and I've never understood how an mp proves themselves completely unsuitable for one ministerial role can be appropriate for another based on nothing other than seemingly that past failure.

Pierre 06-07-2024 07:53

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36178642)
We should make the cabinet more qualified like the Americans do rather than try to find someone from the 99% of MPs who are humanities graduates to be the Minister for Science or whatever.

I agree on that, we have a Business secretary that wouldn’t know how to run a bath, let alone a business.

ianch99 06-07-2024 09:52

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
I was impressed by Starmer's speech outside No. 10. So different from the past Tory PM's, a breath of fresh air.

---------- Post added at 09:52 ---------- Previous post was at 09:50 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178614)
Depends - Reform will have to reform its rules and practices to be (or seen to be) democratic in how it’s run and candidate selection; at the moment, it’s Farage’s personal fiefdom, but you can’t run a (British) mainstream political party that way. If more people get a say in how it’s run and what its policies should be, it may not be as effective.

Agreed but the key move will be the planned merger with the right wing Tories, at which point they will transition into a more conventional structure.

Chris 06-07-2024 10:30

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36178648)
This picture shows how bad it went for the blue party this election.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...chmentid=31092

It also shows that the puke-yellow team god a good shoeing north of the border - far worse even than it looks, given the enormous size of those rural highland constituencies. With one seat to declare and the Nat already conceding he’s lost, the SNP finishes on 9 seats. The talk now is whether the party might be in serious financial difficulty. It was already having cash-flow issues and now it’s lost about £0.75m per annum of parliamentary funding.

/infighting intensifies

:D

Mr K 06-07-2024 12:04

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
The last piece of that map can be coloured in now.
Quote:

The Liberal Democrats have won in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire after two recounts in the constituency.
Angus MacDonald of the Scottish Liberal Democrats won the seat from the SNP’s Drew Hendry, taking the Lib Dems’ total number of seats won to 72.

Hugh 06-07-2024 12:05

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
1 Attachment(s)
From today’s Reformagraph…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1720263836

<cough>None of the last 4 Tory Prime Ministers lasted one term…<cough>

Mr K 06-07-2024 12:39

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36178657)
From today’s Reformagraph…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1720263836

<cough>None of the last 4 Tory Prime Ministers lasted one term…<cough>

Nobody takes Cammy seriously since her toe licking 'Whisper it quietly, Rishis making a comeback' fantasy/article....

Damien 06-07-2024 13:01

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Yeah him serving one term would make him the 3rd PM to do so since Blair, Cameron being the other one.

denphone 06-07-2024 13:42

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36178659)
Yeah him serving one term would make him the 3rd PM to do so since Blair, Cameron being the other one.

Given the Conservatives are likely to tack to the right even more instead of moving back towards the centre ground its likely they will be out of office for two terms at least.

Only my prediction mind.

jfman 06-07-2024 14:57

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Stolen from twitter

Quote:

I was worried Starmer could be a one term Prime Minister until I read that Camilla Tominey has written an article saying Starmer could be a one term Prime Minister.

Itshim 06-07-2024 15:10

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Guess nothing changes, get in with less votes than Jeremy got when he lost. Reform get around the same numbers as libdems. Labour in Wales get less votes than ever before and get more seats. Any other countries would have riots by now. UK swings to the left. Europe and I guess in the near future USA swing to the right. What fun this is going to be.Good luck I think you are going to need it.

Hom3r 06-07-2024 15:39

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36178467)
Trouble for Rishi, our Tory voter hasn't turned out yet :D

As tactical Lib dem vote for me, even if the candidate is a plonker.

Well im on a very need break.

my dads in hospital and im in Great Yarmouth.

Pierre 06-07-2024 16:23

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Strange that Mr K, and other usual suspects on here, aren’t complaining that two thirds of the country didn’t vote for this government?

Mr K 06-07-2024 16:32

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36178673)
Strange that Mr K, and other usual suspects on here, aren’t complaining that two thirds of the country didn’t vote for this government?

More people voted for them than anyone else. The vast majority didn't vote for the Tories in 2019 or for Brexit in 2016

I'm a long standing supporter of PR. What is a bit hypocritical is those that have suddenly become PR converts as it now suits them , when they've strongly opposed in the past.

Escapee 06-07-2024 16:51

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36178677)
More people voted for them than anyone else. The vast majority didn't vote for the Tories in 2019 or for Brexit in 2016

I'm a long standing supporter of PR. What is a bit hypocritical is those that have suddenly become PR converts as it now suits them , when they've strongly opposed in the past.

I didn't want change when we were previously asked because I was hesitant about any changes to the system which has been in place for a long time. Although I would say in more recent years (not just this election but also taking Wales into account) we have seen more reason to consider asking the public again.

Pierre 06-07-2024 18:04

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36178677)
More people voted for them than anyone else.

True, but so it was in 2010, 2015 and every other Tory win.

Quote:

The vast majority didn't vote for the Tories in 2019 or for Brexit in 2016
The vast majority haven’t voted for Labour.

Quote:

I'm a long standing supporter of PR. What is a bit hypocritical is those that have suddenly become PR converts as it now suits them , when they've strongly opposed in the past.
It’s moot point, PR was rejected in 2011 anyway, but I just found it amusing, as when it’s your team that wins ……..it’s fine that only a third of the country voted for them.

---------- Post added at 18:04 ---------- Previous post was at 18:02 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Escapee (Post 36178684)
I didn't want change when we were previously asked because I was hesitant about any changes to the system which has been in place for a long time. Although I would say in more recent years (not just this election but also taking Wales into account) we have seen more reason to consider asking the public again.

Personally, although it doesn’t seem fair or indeed representative, I still prefer our system as it delivers an outright winner (mostly).

Mr K 06-07-2024 18:12

Re: The Cable Forum Exit Poll, 2024
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36178689)
It’s moot point, PR was rejected in 2011 anyway, but I just found it amusing, as when it’s your team that wins ……..it’s fine that only a third of the country voted for them.

But the Lib Dems didn't win :confused: In fact they've suffered most from the current system over the years. Don't recall many Tories complaining about the unfairness of FTP then.

The 2011 referendum had both main parties campaigning against PR, and we voted as we were told.

Who do you think should be running the place as a result of the recent election ?


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