The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

@samlewis1983

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1719489615

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

l just saw that on X.:D

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

:D

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Continuing the previous thread's Vote Compass examples:
Attachment 31074

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I re-ran my votecompass.uk test with my home nation as ‘England’ so it gave me a breakdown of my social and economic views, rather than combining them to make room for the constitutional politics that occupy the vertical axis in the Scottish version of the survey.

I am still a good fit with Labour, as it happens.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Since you have…

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Fun how the present incarnation of Labour isn’t even rated as a ‘progressive’ party on the social scale. I guess that’s due to the pivot away from the Corbyn years.

Meanwhile, I’ve been keeping election leaflets to try to help engage my resident first time voter in the process. She hasn’t filled her postal vote in yet. We got a handful of leaflets today including the ones from all the minor parties and independents, who were satisfyingly bonkers. One of them is committed to campaigning against the Glasgow LEZ (we’re not in Glasgow, and the LEZ is so small it’s easily avoided, albeit it’s way more draconian than the London ULEZ) and fighting for the right to pay with cash everywhere. The other one has produced a leaflet that’s some sort of rambling essay I’ve read twice and still can’t make head or tail of but seems to be some kind of independent Marxist.

Either way it’s either SNP or Labour around here. The rest is theatre.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Bunch of lefty nutjobs, just as well that your informed, perpetually-debated and micro-analysed voting intentions will be negated by a few tattooed skinheads in right-wing Europe :D

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Word salad

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Has CFs Conservative voter decided to abstain this week? ;)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Nope, they havent read this topic yet.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

:clap::clap::clap:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I can't get to the site on the computer I read this site with but I get
Some questions are too broad. On benefits I think those that need them probably should get more but it needs to be better focussed on the needy not those that know how to use the system.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Well I've voted.Doubt it will make any difference to the outcome.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Depends on the benefit. I don't need more money, I'd settle for more security. Those that do depend on them, proven that they are needed of course such as disability / illness (sickness doesn't sound right) are always under constant threat of change, reductions, constant scrutiny / reviews and ever moving goalposts.

Personally I'd be happy with less money than I get if I had the relief of some kind of security.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I've been busy.


details in another thread

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

My postal ballot is in.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Posted mine Thursday

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

There is an unfolding scandal in Scotland as many people have not had their postal ballots in time for the beginning of the school holidays this weekend. Some councils have been forced to open centres where people can collect ballots in person before they head off wherever they’re going.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx02knj0l7xo

The councils are implicitly blaming voters who didn’t apply for their postal ballot until after 7 June, as this is the cut off date between two major tranches of collating/posting out votes to those who applied. Naturally this is an administrative date nobody outside the system can reasonably have known about. Naturally, also, those inside the system have shown remarkably little concern for the fact that the Scottish school holidays commence at the end of June every single year and all of this was entirely foreseeable.

Those councils which have not set up emergency collection points are complacently predicting everyone’s vote will be delivered by today, but anyone who doesn’t get one should phone their local office on Monday. By when many of them will of course already be wherever they were going that necessitated a postal vote in the first place.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

It was flagged almost immediately by the SNP that there was a risk of some Scottish voters being disenfranchised by the UK Government choosing this date.

It’ll be fascinating to see how farcical it becomes as undoubtedly someone losing narrowly will blame this.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I popped down and picked up an Indian meal earlier, I have been in there every Tuesday for the past 6 or 7 years for a sit-down meal so I know them fairly well.

I started pulling the owners leg about Starmer and his comments about Bangladeshis knowing that the owner is Bangladeshi and a staunch Labour voter.

Not this time, he said after Starmers comments, the mosque he visits are now all voting for the Greens. He did say there are issues now with Bangladeshis taking the preverbial with the visa system.

I told him not to worry as his vote doesn't make any difference anyway, we've had a Labour government running us since 1998, been represented by a Labour MP since 1918 and the borough council has been Labour since 1974. (I think the urban district council before it was Labour too)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-...ting/104038246

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Whatever

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Somebody has been a bit naughty at the Farage rally tonight…

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I do like the use of “Kremlin talking points” as if as soon as Putin, or anyone associated with the Russian Government or state media it’s automatically wrong and British people can’t be trusted to weigh it against the lies and misinformation that comes from our own politicians and/or media.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Ooops….

You said the quiet bit out loud.

Strange how you focused on that point, and not

"The five pages identified by ABC Investigations as being part of a coordinated network appear to have little in common"

"ABC's analysis of the five pages found that while they claim to be based in the UK, most of the administrators for each page are based in Nigeria"

"The Nigerian connection is significant because previous online Russian propaganda networks were found to have been operating from Africa."

Probably just a automatic knee-jerk response on your behalf* when anyone points that that perhaps, just perhaps, Russia/Putin may not have our best interests at heart… ;)

*or are you on a bonus scheme, with escalating payments, the more you try to whatabout any negative reporting about the Greater Rus?

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

:D

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Not strange when you consider who posted it. ;)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I'm sure it's just an unfortunate coincidence that Farage supported Putin's position - that the invasion of Ukraine was due to Nato and the EU expanding eastwards - and some of these fake Facebook sites supporting Reform UK. ;)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Tbh, I didn't give much weight to the Nigeria bit for the same reason Chat GPT uses the word 'delve' all the time. If anyone wants to peddle English language content, on any subject matter, the cheapest and easiest way to do it is to pay some guy in the global south to do it for you. Farage has always had shady backers, capitalists without Britain's best interests at heart who have done more damage to this country than Russia ever have.

The Ukraine war is a soft underbelly for stirring up anti-refugee and anti-immigrant sentiment so it's unsurprising that the far right would use it given the economic cost of the war. In the absence of a clear direction, or that victory is achievable, or a plan for return of refugees, there's no real reason for the average person who isn't that bothered about all the other bad things that happen in the world outside of their control to care more about Ukraine (or Ukrainians) than any of the others. It's just land between Poland and Russia the same way Gaza is land between Israel and the Med. Away over there full of other people.

Xenophobia is the tried and tested dog whistle of English politics. A man as astute as Farage doesn't need the Kremlin to tell him that. He's been blowing it for over twenty years.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Many people, rightly or wrongly, have taken that position.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

The point is, most people are not sufficiently expert in international affairs to arrive at a meaningful position on such things. Unless we’re content to speak out of blind ignorance, our speech is informed by the sources we choose to consume. So the fact that many people have taken Farage’s position doesn’t dilute the significance of that fact. Especially not in this social media age.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Some nutter on the telly just claimed we're better off than in 2010. He also reckons he'll still be PM on Friday. This is a damning indictment on the state of our mental health services...

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

And yet the most important issue in the UK in the area of international affairs was decided by plebiscite.

I find the idea that the Russians wouldn’t seek to influence that, with a clear preferred outcome, yet are sitting there rooting for Farage to get what, ten(?) seats, preposterous.

This is Tories crying into their beer, wine, sherry etc. because they danced with the devil by pandering to the far right and it’s bit them in the arse.

If there’s genuine concern about Russia and Farage then serious questions have to be asked why the media, and in particular our state broadcaster, have given him a platform completely disproportionate to his popularity over the last decade and more.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Gaslighting of the highest order.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Murdochs seen the light and the Sunday Times are now backing Labour, The Sun soon to follow no doubt.
He hates to back a loser.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Why not both?

It's about disruption...

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

If it’s both then it’s fundamentally dishonest of the Conservative Party that gave us the Lord Lebedev to deploy the Russian bogeyman when it suits it while ignoring the greatest influence Russia would have deployed over UK politics in the last decade was/is it’s influence over the Conservative Party.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

As a bit of fun, I've put CFs voting intentions into the Electoral Calculus website. A majority of 436 of for Labour, 1 seat for the Tories, and the Lib Dems are the official opposition But are ageing cable nerds a representative sample? :confused:

Attachment 31081

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Totally agree…

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/21/89344...lawmakers-find

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Can but hope, it's been a bellwether forum in the past :D. Surprised the tv pundits don't refer to CF attitudes in all their data mining.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Colour me unsurprised on this hypocrisy.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Bit less of the ageing if you would be so kind !

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Ed Davey and Sir Keir out saying they are concerned about the situation with postal ballots so not a uniquely Scottish problem after all.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Landslide it is then..

https://www.survation.com/survation-...-than-in-1997/

With two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

It ain’t over till it’s over…

There are always the "shy" Conservative and Reform voters…

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

l don't disagree as there are probably several shy Conservative and Reform voters just on this forum.;)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I think the biggest “risk” to Labour is Labour voters staying home.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

That one gives the Liberal Democrats more seats than the Conservatives. Chris has already mentioned this as a scenario and interesting to see it in this poll of polls.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Indeed……

The childish side of me kek’d at this

https://www.thepoke.com/2024/07/02/r...McLBh5FhbMXXgQ

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

That's very good. :D

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

It’s now also visible in Survation’s latest MRP poll (massive sample, statistical jiggery-pokery at the constituency level).

While it is not their most probable outcome, they are giving only a 53% chance of the Tories getting more seats than the Lib Dems. If these newfangled MRP polls are as good as their makers say they are, Ed Davey as leader of His Majesty’s loyal opposition is an outcome now very much in play.

https://www.survation.com/survation-...-than-in-1997/

There has been evidence throughout this campaign of Labour directing its resources outside of most constituencies in southwest England where the Lib Dems are most likely to take a seat off a Tory. I’m soaking up the drizzle in Penzance this morning, where some streets have an orange diamond in almost every window. So far I’ve seen just one Tory house on the western prom road and Labour is entirely absent.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

My sister who has been a US resident for 20 years, and has dual nationality, has a vote in the UK election. She's not planning to vote, but farcical that people that haven't been UK resident for decades are getting a say. Presumably as the Gov thinks they'll vote Tory.

---------- Post added at 10:58 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------

Yes they'll all crawl out of the woodwork tomorrow, hopefully not enough of them but it will be closer than the polls say. Also the Reform rats returning back to the Con sinking ship....

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

It has been interesting that they have avoided wheeling out Johnson for obvious reasons but I guess they are now desperate. His speech yesterday confirmed their fears I think. He reminded most people why the Tories are being rejected and a lot of the reasons behind this are down to him.

The other curiosity is the effective absence of Jeremy Hunt in this campaign. Maybe he is too busy packing :)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

That’s not unusual. Off the top of my head, the US and France both allow long-term ex pats to vote as well. The French parliament has constituencies for parts of the world where there are lots of ex-pats. The UK is within the ‘northern Europe’ constituency.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Ed Davey has run a brilliant campaign by not being the Tories or Reform.

Just goofing about and not talking about policies.

Genius

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I was down the Indian last night for my weekly meal, the owner did say to me on the weekend that he would be voting for the Greens instead of Labour.

He went along to a Nigel Farage event, which he said had a good Muslim attendance. He said the mosque is now promoting a vote for Reform.

I'm predicting obviously a Labour win, but I don't think the majority will be as big as predicted. I haven't heard much of an argument for a vote for Starmer other than he's not the Conservatives. I think the pressure will be on him from day one, he's not going to grow the economy if he increases business taxes so tax the working person is the only option he has.

I saw an interview with Andrew Fisher who was director of policy in the Labour party under Corbyn. It's interesting for someone like me who has been described as "Slightly to the right of Hitler" to get an extreme left wing view other than on CF.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T28aFimDfBw

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

That's like turkeys voting for Christmas

Labout have a lot of options in the area like CGT, tax on dividends, financial services, high net worth individuals, property sales, offshore tax havens, etc. They just need to get creative. So far, they plan is not scare the horses but once they are in power they can be a lot more honest about the system that rewards the few and start making some changes.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Honestly it wuz the Sun that won it.;)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/289350...-for-a-change/

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I'm sure Labour are delighted to get such a fullsome endorsment from a publication of the Suns impeccable reputation.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

At least that's something we appear to agree upon.;)

Although I think they will continue to be dishonest.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

I’m still in two minds and will probably decide when I’m in the booth.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Just stay at home the rational voter doesn’t vote. ;)

(The chances of a single vote deciding it are so minuscule anyway)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Tory’s only had a majority of 5K with a near 80% turn out last election.

I reckon turnout will be low 50’s at best,

Labour will win.

I might go Reform just for the hell of it.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Was discussing how low turnout could be with colleagues today. I’ve gone 59%.

Defo more 2005 vibes than 1997.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Well that is a surprise, not....

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

The Count signed a treaty with the Crown & Treaty that promises to move the hand dryer to a more sensible position should he win the seat, in which The Count generously offers all assistance up to but definitely not including DIY to achieve the task and having seen the hand dryer now for myself I can confirm it is in a very inconvenient position nestled in between a mirror and a sink. Promises made promises kept.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6
 

Whomever is chosen will be a disaster..

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 6