The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Some interesting data that adds intrigue to the rapidly-growing election betting scandal. B*tfair is unusually transparent about how much money is being bet on any particular thing. It’s possible to see that throughout this year there has been a constant, but small, stream of bets on a July election. But suddenly, the day before the election was called, there’s a truly massive increase in the amount of money laid on the election being in July.

Graphs are viewable in this thread on Xitter: https://x.com/jimwaterson/status/180...56-Kgau3lzowJw

I know at least one Tory has called his bet an ‘error of judgment’. Obvs we don’t know if he knew the date and placed a bet in a manner that might have been criminal. But judging by these numbers, this is not a coincidence. Someone, or several someones, knew exactly when the election was going to be, and thought they could cash in by betting on the date before it went public.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

What happens if/when Sunak loses the election and his seat. Can he still be the party leader?

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

You can legally lead the party without being an MP. The Green co-leader Carla Denyer is a Bristol city councillor but their only MP is Caroline Lucas. But the Greens’ party constitution permits that. Whether the Tory party constitution permits it is another matter (and I don’t know the answer).

If the Tories are the second largest party, and Sunak is not elected, he can’t be leader of the opposition because that is an appointment specific to the House of Commons. Even if Sunak did not immediately resign as leader after losing his seat the Tories would have to nominate someone to be leader of the opposition by the time the Commons sat for the first time.

(If the Tories won the election but Sunak lost his seat he could continue to be Prime Minister until another one was chosen, because the PM does not by law have to be a member of either House, although it would be utterly extraordinary for him not to be … they would either have to immediately make him a Lord so he could serve in the interim, or else he would immediately resign and the next most senior MP would have to step in, probably promising to be an interim figure while a leadership election was held. But none of tha’s going to happen. :D )

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Thanks for that, that's exactly what I've been looking for. I just couldn't find the right answer anywhere. :tu:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

It just reinforces the inference that our MPs are not very bright.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

"It was an error of judgement officer"
Cobblers, it was a criminal act. Stick the cuffs on and lock them up.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I see that Sunak said on Question Time that he was glad he called the election when he did. Makes me wonder if he had a bet on the date as well, for there seemed to be little other good reason for calling it when he did. ;)

---------- Post added at 22:32 ---------- Previous post was at 22:31 ----------

BoJo purged the Conservative Party of a lot of talent so you're closer to the truth than you might think.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Starmer was nervous, understandably given it’s currently his to lose. And I think he missed an opportunity to be ‘real’ when pressed about Corbyn. He could have owned the egg on his face as a result of party politics being a team sport. The only alternative was to sound evasive, and unfortunately that’s the path he picked.

Still … Rishi Sunak while (I think) attempting to sound confident and willing to stand by his record, just sounded cross and shouty. IIRC he was the only one who got laughed at at any stage and when the credits rolled he was definitely getting heckled, though it wasn’t possible to hear what was said.

Davey and Swinney had to be there but were never more than a warm up act for the only viable choices in the room. I was pleasantly surprised at how useful and relevant the questions to Swinney were, given that the audience was from in and around York.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

He said that he was very annoyed at those who bet on the date of the election. I bet he is as, even in the dying days of his government, some individuals couldn't resist a final bit of greedy self serving behaviour.

---------- Post added at 00:19 ---------- Previous post was at 00:15 ----------

I can't understand why he called the election so soon. You'd think that he'd have hung on for as long as possible in the vague hope that things improved.

Maybe he's had enough? He doesn't need the money, will get a nice fat ex prime ministerial pension for doing nothing and will could earn a lot with after dinner speaking roles.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Hence, the theory he had a flutter himself. ;) Seriously, he probably realised things won't get better, so why hang on?

He's no Thatcher, Johnson or Blair on the speaking circuit so don't think he will do much on that front.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

It's not like he needs to do any of that really anyway. I think he's hoping to lose his seat so he'll bugger off to the US.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Indeed.

The flaw is assuming these people have their shouts in the trough because of a sense of public duty.

Once he is a "former PM" he can make a lot more money for a lot less effort doing something else. Or in his case likely nothing else since his wealth probably grows far more than a PM salary all by itself.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

The Conservative campaign hits new depths…

https://x.com/conservatives/status/1...Fx9lsEXWlOa1jg

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1718955023

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

And even more new depths here.

Attachment 31059

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Without passing judgement on the levels of immigration - legal or otherwise - anyone who believes the Tories after 14 years of dog whistling should have the vote taken off them.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

For the first time in my voting life I don’t know who to vote for only whom I don’t want to vote for.
What a completely,rubbish,useless bunch to try and make a sensible choice from.
Just as I find a candidate who might be better than the rest they do or say something really stupid.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

My vote is now in the post so they had better not blow it in the next two weeks.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

My postal vote arrived … and has gone back. Voted for the red team for the first time in my life. They’d better not screw it up.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Can things get any worse?

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I think there’s little doubt the inner circle around Keir Starmer is at least as competent as anything any Tory government could put together. For me, the stumbling block I could never get past was the party fringes. There are utter fruit loops on the fringes of both the Labour and Tory parliamentary parties, but on balance I always felt I could tolerate the Tory oddballs better because they are generally interested in feathering their own nests, which while irritating, doesn’t tend to affect me. The so-called progressives of the Loony Left, however, have an evangelistic zeal to remake society in their own image.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Starmer has kicked a lot of them out anyway, the ones that remain have no power base and are fractured themselves these days between the old SWP lot and the newer generation. Momentum is pretty much finished and the parts of the left-wing base that remain behind Corbyn have gone off to the Greens.

I think if Labour fail in Government it won't be because they try to go too left-wing.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I tend to agree, and that’s what finally tipped me over the edge. (I mean that metaphorically - I was always going to have to hold my nose and vote for the Labour anyway, come what may, just to get the SNP out - now I can at least feel I’ve made a positive choice.)

Starmer sounds cautious to the point of timid at the moment and if that’s how he approaches governing he and Labour will fail. We are at a 1945 moment, where lots of people are willing to see a government do something different. He should heed the warning of 1950/51.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Some people support a political party like a football team and feel as though they have to support them come what may.

You've shown that, despite being a former supporter of the Conservative Party, even considering standing for election under their banner, if you disagree with things that the Tories have done, you will say so.

As a floating voter, I respect that.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Achievement unlocked, I guess :erm:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Nigel Farage, living proof of the Horseshoe Theory.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjqq...07d53dff8#post

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Umm, ok ...
Care to enlighten those of us who have no idea what that is.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

More likely living proof Russian money is funding his campaign, as it always has.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

From wiki

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

The two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. Russian asymmetric conflict 101 - sow division. They’ll just as readily do that on the far left, where people are cheerleaders for Russia because Evil Yankees™ as on the far right where they love Putin because they wish they had his power to make people do as they’re told. On both sides, of course, they’re willing to ignore the body count.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I'm not sure why the Russians would waste time and effort with our "far left" since Farage gets so much free airtime from our state broadcaster that the far left could only dream of.

Of course viewing the Americans as unfit to be the world's policeman as it's bombs rain down on Palestinians, Iraqis, Afghans, etc in the name of furthering democracy/security is a legitimate viewpoint wherever it lies on the political spectrum, as is the observation that it's unsurprising Iran, Russia, China, or anyone else would view it as a threat to their own and wider global security. America is perfectly capable of demonising itself. It's only white western exceptionalism that would think otherwise.

On the far left I do think they consider the bodies. The brown ones.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

QED …

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Trying to work out which bit of Farage’s comments on Russia / Ukraine is inaccurate, haven’t found it yet.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

As I’ve just noted in the Ukraine thread, one of Farage’s core skills is floating unpleasant, dog-whistle inferences which hit the right eardrums but which are plausibly deniable if there’s blowback.

Farage’s comments on provocation are obvious Putin apologetics even while he’s denying they are. He is victim-blaming and it is every bit as objectionable as claiming a woman in a short skirt is ‘asking for it’. The EU is not a military threat to anyone. The very idea is absurd. It is at best a cultural threat to a fascist bent on assimilation based on a warped presentation of history, but those are the perceptions of someone who is very far from being a normal human being. Yet Farage offers EU expansion as a provocation. NATO is not a military threat to anyone. It never has been. And the reason for its continued existence, and its growing popularity in Ukraine, is being amply proved by Russia right now.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

The best bit it still to come when despite the best efforts of Sunak, Starmer and the mainstream media the Reform UK polling numbers are barely dented.

I’ll pre-empt people comparing different polling organisations and their methodologies. Similar enough polls by the same pollsters asking the same question - voting intention.

I think you’d very easily find one saying 50%+ disagree with him from the remoaner base in a direct question on the subject just because it’s him.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Just to try to stop this drifting into a copy of the Ukraine thread … more broadly what’s your view on how will Reform will do in terms of actual seats won? Estimates vary wildly, and I’m seeing some people saying they’re more likely to vote for them now the polls say it may not be a wasted vote. Some sort of feedback loop appears possible.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

The Greens will get more seats than Reform.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Certainly keen not to duplicate the other thread.

I’ll have a closer look tomorrow to make some kind of educated guess but my hunch from outset is that it’s easier to tell a pollster you’ll vote reform than in an actual GE but agree on the probability of a feedback loop.

Obviously they’ll get nothing in Scotland, there’s enough tactical voting on constitutional lines but they could save the SNPs blushes in a few seats. It’s also difficult without knowing geographic distribution of course - as the Lib Dems find out every election.

---------- Post added at 22:53 ---------- Previous post was at 22:09 ----------

I suspect for this to happen some kind of event would have to happen to finish Farage, and this event accepted and promoted to the extent his usually sympathetic Westminster bubble refuse him access to their microphones in the manner they do now.

Some evidence of corruption or collusion with a foreign government to undermine British democratic processes, perhaps. Being a dodgy banker probably not enough.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Well I guess there are a few nut jobs around, probably not that many though.
Given their plans to increase taxes by £170+ billion, I think most will steer clear of them.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Having thought about it some more - I'm thinking somewhere less than 3 seats. The geographic distribution is so sparse and their voters are (largely) disaffected Tories who were losing anyway.

You can't rule out Farage, or just an electoral anomaly/local issue sparking itself somewhere where voters are either so peed off or think they're voting tactically but miscalculating. But in terms of wholesale, national returns I just don't think there's enough there at this point. I suspect tactical voting will come into play to 'keep them out' among supporters of the 3 main parties in England.

The SNP (2015) show what can be achieved if there is that concentration - in 2015 returning 56 seats off 4.7% of the vote. However I think Reform UK votes will be too evenly spread it's hard to see any outcome in the seats where they have most success other than a Labour win given their polling numbers.

Potentially the worst outcome of all would be Farage with a single seat, 20% of the popular vote (more than every other party bar Labour). We'd never hear the end of it, or see the back of him.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I see the Telegraph is taking it well…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1719148081

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Yes I saw that. Their colmnists are taking it well :D

The utter hardship of having to pay 20% extra on school fees too. They are going to maybe have to sacrifice a skiing holiday.That's how bad its got for a certain section of society, who weren't 'all in it together' after all!

I hope Labour do have lots of hidden tax rises for the uber rich. They can afford it. Part of making our country great again, since our kamikaze Brexit...

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Gambling watchdog widens inquiry into bets on election date as 'many more people' being investigated.

https://news.sky.com/story/many-more...laims-13157425

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

The first case (Sunak’s Parliamentary PPS) getting 4/1 or 5/1 for an event that on paper could take place any time between now and January points towards a fair bit of cash already being on it.

I know in reality you can rule out non-Thursdays and some will be naturally less likely due to holiday periods. Those are still quite short odds for it.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Really worried that bookies might have been stung :shocked:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

In which case they will emigrate and take their wealth with them. Sounds reasonable….:rolleyes:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Where to? No freedom of movement doesn’t make it as easy as it used to. Not everyone wealthy has the ability to make as much money while resident elsewhere. Or that they’re not dodging massive amounts of tax anyway. It’s a scaremongering myth.

There’s no country in the world crying out for Brit tax dodgers to come over and dodge tax there.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Golden visas to Portugal Greece, 7% tax, Monaco, 0% tax, etc... one needs just 500,000 Euros. Google it..

https://getgoldenvisa.com/portugal-golden-visa-program

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

If it’s that easy those people are already gone. Those left have other factors tying them to the UK. Such as their income depending on doing business in the UK, with skills or business that isn’t easily transferable.

14 years of Conservative government has given us the highest tax burden ever.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Correction: Portugal wants only 250,000 euros investment but not in property.

Monaco, 0% tax

https://monaco-citizenship.info/index.html

The real problem is the non-dom status: you might be able to be in the UK only 90 days a year (currently 180 days)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

As I say, anyone who can go is already gone. Nobody is going to move because their threshold to do so was above the current level.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

The Rolling Stones moved to France to avoid our tax rates in the 1960s. That was before the EU.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

And before the highest tax burden ever from a supposedly Conservative government.

I'm not quite sure your average Brit who hasn't already left, or got a fancy accountant fiddling everything for them, has the same international income streams as The Rolling Stones.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

The money left, but the Brits are still here, waiting for Rachel Reeves to react ... she already made a complete U-turn on the Life time Allowance (pensions 2-3 million quid worth)

Fancy accountant: that is a "wealth advisor"; there are plenty of them around, Fidelity in London charges £5K, Barclays (Jersey) the same. They will make your money disappear magically. Reeves has been told to hire one of these advisors as a consultant, she seems to start listening.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Not convinced they wouldn't lobbying on behalf of their clients, and scaremongering , more than offering credible tax advice to government.

I genuinely doubt many people pack their bags and sit on election night with the excitement of staying in the UK or leaving everything behind should a Labour government get in that will make slight changes to the tax system.

I'm also unconvinced if the money has left the benefit of having the people? They're not spending vast sums in the UK economy if it's holed up in a tax haven, and unlikely to invest in a UK business isolated from the single market.

Pure scaremongering. Pandering to it only guarantees more of the same. Austerity. Stagnation.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Remember when tens of thousand of rich people left when Blair was elected in ‘97?

No, me neither… ;)

In fact, what actually happened to the comfortably off/wealthy…

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2024/06/2.jpg

https://journals.openedition.org/osb/1174

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

It looks like the electoral reckoning for the Conservatives is still coming in 10 days time.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies....-24-june-2024/

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I said

The money left, but the Brits are still here, ;)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

They have plenty of not so hidden tax rises . Not putting up allowances is a not so hidden tax rise which hits the lower paid more closely than the well off. Given the way Welsh labour mess things up who ever gets in the UK is in for a rough ride. The other man's grass etc :dunce:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I didnt know any then, nor do I now, so no. :)

[ Depends on your definition of 'Rich' of course ].

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Plenty of people rich in the soul on CF.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I imagine you need to be worth several million pounds with a lot of passive income complementing that for it to be worthwhile to uproot your life to avoid some of the tax on that income.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Nope. You can hide your dosh easily.


Digital Banks: Three bad examples

Plum: Owned by two Aussies (do not correct me on that). They have an account with Citybank (you may correct me on this) and they put your money anonymously there. Very fishy bank.

MoneyBox: They put your money in their account with HSBC.

Moneyfarm: Owned by an Italian guy. I have no more to say on this.

All three are recommended by the money saving compare sites

Fintech/Worldpay, the same two Aussie Plum guys.

But Jersey has plenty of banks that have subsidiary digital banks. Very reliable. The corrupt Anglo-Irish bank (jersey) never leaked ANY info, even after bankruptcy.

No need to uproot.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Don't forget the system is structured to allow the ultra wealthy to quietly minimise their tax liability. One reason why the Tories have been in power for such a large percentage of the time. We, as a society, are conditioned to obsess over Income and ignore Wealth.

I am constantly amazed why so many get angry about the millions spent on small boats, etc. and yet are content to allow the billions sail away without any protest.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Interesting: Conservative Party withdraws support from two candidates over election betting scandal

If they get elected as MP's, would they be effectively independents?

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

There's a lot of nuance in the word "wealth".

Income, in pounds shillings and pence is easy to understand and tangible.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Looking at the ones you mention, the digital banks, they're all registered here and are regulated by the FSA. This wouldn't get you out of paying tax. It's not hiding your money. What matters is not where the owners are from or which banks they use themselves, what matters is if they have a UK Banking Licence. If they do then they can operate here but in turn have to submit returns to the government.

I am not really sure what you're getting at there?

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/n...n-seemed-good/

To paraphrase "Yes, Minister", it seems brave and courageous that whilst giving an election hustings speech in Salisbury, you praise someone who ordered their Intelligence Service to use a chemical agent which killed one person, put three more into intensive care for several weeks, and caused eight sites to be closed for several months whilst they were being decontaminated in that Constituency.

Not sure they thought that response through…

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Ah, I see you conform to the required thinking. When people hear Income, most think of PAYE and it is this this section of society, those whose tax is deducted at source, that bare the brunt of the tax rises. They literally have no choice.

It is the other Income sources e.g. Dividends plus the net increase in asset values that is not taxed at the same levels. People complain about being taxed too much since they have no ability to escape it however, those with net worth in the tens of millions, are laughing all the way to the (offshore) bank. Net increase in wealth is quantifiable if the system is structured to assess it.

The irony is that those who can afford to pay the most, would not notice the loss are those would pay the least in effective tax rate terms. Here's the kicker: most people don't have a problem with it but, in the same breath, will be angry about helping those who have so little.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Pretty dumb...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cqqqqx25rz0t

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Indeed as what was he thinking.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Hedging his bets. I like it.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I’m unclear as to the law around political betting. I didn’t think it was illegal per se, but only if you’re relying on insider information. Anyone connected to Rishi Sunak is obviously under suspicion if they bet on a July election, that not being by any means the most likely outcome, but an opposition MP betting on the outcome in his seat seems much less likely to be based on privileged info. I have to say I suspect the Gambling Commission has gone looking for a sacrificial lamb here, to try to lessen the damage their existing investigations are doing to one particular party by evening things out a bit.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Probably the Labour Party trying to appear “whiter than white” too. In theory betting on an event you deliberately then go on to lose would on paper be no different to spot-fixing or match-fixing.

However who would sacrifice 5 years at 80k+ and expenses for a minor bet.

He’s probably been unlucky that the bet has appeared unusual (high amount) in the context of single constituency markets and fell within the timeframe for further scrutiny.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I guess the Conservatives will now win his seat. Whether the booky pays out is another matter.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

It doesnt seem likely he would have been elected anyway, hence his bet, so I dont think he sacrificed much on that front.
I do think his statement that he would have given any winnings to charity is a load of cobblers, hes just saying that now hes been "caught".

There does seem to be a lot of fuss over people betting, who would have had no knowledge of the date, simply because they are politicians.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

100% agree the charity line is being mince. The sacrifice point was the idea he'd deliberately go out his way to lose, rather than as you say the simpler explanation it was more likely.

I do wonder if the gambling industry are making a point here too, with people the public are unlikely to have sympathy for. There's a lot of rumours in football.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Wife and middle child got their postal vote forms today - today is also day official advice is ‘call us if you haven’t had your postal vote yet’. I was all set to phone the helpline after the postman had been today, had he not brought them. I got mine late last week but then I applied for it within a couple of days of the election being called. They left it until early last week.

The postman handed them over with a pile of electoral leaflets. Labour have been very good at sending out personally addressed bumf - more than once in the case of my older two offspring who are first-time GE voters (eldest had the chance to vote in the last Holyrood being over 16 but chose not to). SNP, Lib Dems and even the Tories have sent material via unaddressed junk mail but none of the parties have been seen canvassing in our estate (and I’d know, I work mostly from home and when I walk to work from time to time I walk through the estate so I see most of what goes on around here).

I am aware the Labour candidate has been out personally; one of my church members had her at the door last week and said it was the first time any candidate had called on her in 30 years. Until 2015 this was solid Labour and from then until now it has been solid Nat but this time polls indicate a Labour win, but not a big one. So I’m surprised at the lack of visible, in-person canvassing activity.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Not seem a candidate for our constituency which is surprising as the existing MP (Simon Clarke) had quite a sizeable majority but now seems to be trailing significantly if the current data is to be believed.

He is however very active posting pics of himself in coffee shops so maybes that’s something?

Still waiting for angela and the bus to come along our street !

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Interesting article (imho) on why Rishi is making so many mis-steps recently…

tl:dr - he managed to rise without a trace…

https://thecritic.co.uk/the-rise-and-fall-of-rishi/

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

The Peter principle in full majesty

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1719408923

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-m...ver-vote-share

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Only impossible miracles can save the Conservatives now from a massive trouncing at the ballot box.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I’d love to meet the 22% who don’t think “it’s time for change”.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

It will be interesting to see who Welsh Labour blame for the mess the NHS, trains, roads and education are in, here in Wales once they are out. Any comments made get the same answer is the tories in England fault :shocked:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I wouldn't, sadists, masochists or in on it, I'll give 'em a miss. Same as the delusionals chanting as if praying careful what you wish for like the last 14 years aren't enough for them and it could in any way be worse than that

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Opinion polling suggest Welsh Labour will still be the dominant party in Wales after the election.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies....-20-june-2024/

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I think we will be surprised how many votes, not seats, Reform get. Given that Farage has only one core message (hate), this is very depressing for the future of this country.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

What’s depressing is people in the centre. Watch the country go to shit for 14 years. Want Labour to continue the journey to more shit in a competent manner. Like Tories without the entertainment.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

https://votecompass.uk/

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1719420635
:kiss:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Lol I'm in exactly the same position, great minds think alike ;)

---------- Post added at 18:20 ---------- Previous post was at 18:15 ----------

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...tarmer-farage/

The major news here isn't the one about Reform getting seats , but the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition. Dont think it will happen, but it would be very funny. Think I'm beginning to like our electoral system after all ;)

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I get the Scotland variant.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

They are not the dominant party in the senedd, they can't do anything with out support. Looking like the others have had enough. Lib dem , plaid and tories say they won't support their budget . For the record I don't care who gets in. It will make not a scrap of difference to me :rolleyes:

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics...ants-d7rl2dgt6


---------- Post added at 18:59 ---------- Previous post was at 18:52 ----------

<blinks bemusedly at double-entendre headline>

https://www.thetimes.com/article/907...bcbef55abef798

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

I’m like the mirror universe jfman. Although I seem to be more of a Yoon than you are a Nat. I admit I’m surprised you’re not higher up that graph. Are you surprised you’re more Alba than SNP?

Here’s me, left of Labour and more unionist than the lot of them (except Reform, who are probably in the ‘close the shortbread senate’ brigade, which is several steps too far even for me).

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Maybe so, but is that so surprising after the Covid pandemic and the energy crisis? All that money provided to citizens under the furlough scheme and the energy price caps for example had to be paid back somehow.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

That just occurred to you?

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair! Think more Harold Wilson and James Callaghan.

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5
 

Better policies for a better Britain.