Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/c...ublic-services

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

From Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies
https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Britain cant afford a tory government tories now lost all claims to be party of fiscal competence

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Right, because Labour are always so much better at it. :rolleyes:

The rise in the energy cap (£2500 to £3000) wasnt as bad as I had feared.
The tax rises are not really rises as such, just a freeze on the current 'free' levels.

Taking incomes down to 2013 levels ?
Dont really understand what that means ?
My income will still be higher than 9 years ago.
[ My expenditure will be higher though ]

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

It means you lose more in your last sentence in the square brackets than you gain in the one before ;)

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Well, baby boomers are golden: a 10% increase in the state pension; the energy price guarantee; the energy bills support scheme; the winter fuel payment and the pensioner cost of living payment.
Labour aren't a shoe-in by any means :p:

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

£900 cost of living support April to March I believe.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...port-factsheet

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Once again complete BS about 'baby boomers'. :mad:
A 10% increase in pension is meaningless if you dont get it until 2029 (or later).
Getting really tired of these ill informed comments, and in future they will be removed.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

I’m in the cohort you mention -

10% increase in the state pension - just qualified for State Pension, so next April I will get £18 more per week; better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, but not exactly "golden"…

energy price guarantee - everyone gets this, not just "baby boomers"

the energy bills support scheme - everyone gets this, not just "baby boomers"

the winter fuel payment - not eligible this year

pensioner cost of living payment - not eligible

So, from this budget, the only difference between me and everyone else will be £18 per week in six months time - "golden"?

Perhaps "one size fits all" generalisations may not be as accurate as you may believe…

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Apparently not…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlton...h=216229072ee7

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

If you earn £125,540 (funny number, wondered why?) you lose ALL free allowances.

Anyone between £100,000 -125,540, loses £1 free allowance for every £2 above £100,000.

If you are between £125,540-150,000, extra 5% tax.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Im not going to worry about that, ever. ;)

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Which bit, is the growth bit?

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Keep your hair on loves I was trying to be positive. The Government is being criticised endlessly and few acknowledge the good things they’re doing. And even if you’re not getting the full benefit now, you can look forward to the future. The Government has made provision for seniors; it’s not their fault if you’re too young to have all the benefit now but keep yer peckers up eh? :)

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Nice (try at) recovery… ;)

It’s difficult for people to "acknowledge the good things they’re doing" as it’s only a few weeks since they tanked the economy - it isn’t easy to have the mindset to thank the person who calls an ambulance for you after they’ve run you over in their car, then reversed over you to see what the bump was… ;)


I wasn’t being irate, I was pointing that your sweeping generalisation was inaccurate…

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Not sure if you're a secret millionaire, lottery winner, PPE manufacturing pub landlord, live in a cave on a remote Scottish island or just have very efficient blinkers and extremely selective memory but I'm struggling to think of a worse government than the one we've been encumbered with for the last few years and particularly this year. I take it you don't go shopping for food, heat your home or drive and love it when the people elected to represent you lie to your face.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Somebody else is driving the car now.

Permacrisis. I still think this is the best place to live in the World.:tu:

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Demonstrating at least we have an effective state propaganda machine.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Where would you rather live jfman?

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

By Tory standards its a reasonable budget and pretty much a 180 over truss economics, it could have been far worse.

Now days though people tend to look at budgets as in "whats in it for me" and of course there will be many feeling hard done by with the tax changes.

The government I think was right to prioritise the most vulnerable.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

I will be 100% straight. I think for a good number they are giving to much. I will gladly take the £900 but in all honesty I could manage just about without it. I already pay 20% for energy more than I use building up a nice bolster cushion.( more of an accident due to my change of habits and using a lot less than I was)

I guarantee you there is a very large number of none working people with a new iphone and full Sky/Virgin package and various other luxuries those struggling on minimum wage would love to have and some that can still afford a cheeky line of coke or a bag of weed and then complain they can not afford food. I think means testing should be tighter and those on means testing budgets show what they are spending the money on and those wasting it should not get that much

With the £900 next year the 10% and the increase in benefits even with inflation I will not be much different than I am now.

I am however grateful for the energy cap even though it is going up because it is still 2K lower than estimates for next April were on Ofgems cap which would have made my life very hard indeed and at least I can budget someone for the future now although there is nothing stopping Hunt getting the sack and another backtrack I guess

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

The Tories are no longer in charge?

I thought that might have made a bigger splash in the media…

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

When we discussed the 2015 election, it was quite rightly pointed out that Eds Miliband and Balls were both on the bridge even though it was other members of their party who were most responsible for running the ship of state aground in what we thought (at the time) was a massive financial crisis.

Rishi Sunak has been in cabinet for most of the last 4 years. In Hunt’s case it’s most of the last 12 years. They may not have been in charge but their hands are no cleaner than Ed Balls’ or Ed Miliband’s were.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Along with Braverman, Schapps, Cleverly, Wallace, Coffey, Raab, Dowden, Gove, Barclay, Mordaunt, True, Badenoch, Stride, Zawahi, Heston-Harris, Jack, etc, etc. - current members of the Cabinet, all been Ministers before.

"It wasn’t me, Guv, a big boy/girl did it and ran away" doesn’t really wash, due to the "Collective Cabinet Responsiblity" thing…

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

There have been stormy waters to navigate. Seasoned crew bring experience to the helm :).

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

No ,they keep hitting the same bloody iceberg

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

This isn’t 1912; there’s more than one iceberg to negotiate. Still afloat though and no red rescue boats in sight but keep blowing the whistle titch :).

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

One big huge raspberry to this reorganised shower of a crappy government.
:mad::grind::afire:

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

You’re not married to that shouty bloke who hangs out in Westminster are you Maggy? Down with everything!

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Why don't they reintroduce the tax on winnings on gambling? Not the odd scheme where you chose to pay on stake or winnings but something simple like 10% on any single win over £1,000,000. (Take into account prizes split over years on a single stake.)
You could make the threshold higher if you think a million is too small. A few 10%'s of some of those big Euro wins would bring in quite a bit, not huge but every little helps and getting £144 million instead of £160 really won't hurt that much.
The change in capital gains is likely to hurt me a bit.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Someone raised a similar point at a Sky News Q&A.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

How come there wasn't a bigger fall in the late 1970s, when inflation was twice the current level, and wage increases were very restricted?

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Probably because rent/ mortgages and utility bills weren't so high, unless you're going to say wage increases have kept pace with those increases

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Nope!It's all my opinion.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Inflation is inflation, doesn't matter what it's made up of.
Link

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

It all sounds like meaningless numeric trickery to me.

Either way, I dont get why its being portrayed as the end of the world.

My "living standards" in 2013 were not exactly poor/bad.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Their output is assumptions based on assumptions.

Completely meaningless stuff produced by think tanks which are repeatedly wrong.

Hunt chose to quote them as he cherry picked some "forecasts" which suited his agenda.

bbc, guanriad, mail, express and the rest of the discredited media choose other assumptions that suit their agenda. :rolleyes:

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

the seasoned crew who got us into this mess?

OK, then…

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

If essentials go up like food and electricity, it has more of an impact on disposable income than things like foreign holidays and diamonds, for example.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Is that the seasoned crew that went headlong into the iceberg on the horizon.;)

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

So when have the price of diamonds ever figured in inflation figures? How would inflation rates in double figures for several years in tne 1970s, NOT led to a drop in living standards?

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Not your most insightful or articulate opinion then but if you feel better for it, well, go you! :D

The stormy waters got us into this mess.

See post #28. Sigh.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Nothing to do with Liz Truss, then?

A "seasoned crew" would have seen the stormy waters, and charted a course to avoid the worst of the problems, not headed directly into the storm whilst burning all the lifeboats and telling the passengers they would explain why they burnt the lifeboats after they had passed through the storm, and ignoring the warnings from the Coastguards…

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

There's nothing in and of itself wrong with 2013. It's the underlying factors driving us to there and the likelihood of driving us beyond.

Fundamentally the Ponzi scheme that is western capitalism is running out of steam. Privatisation brought future profits into the past and consumers today are paying the cost. Increasing borrowing thresholds for mortgages has similarly brought money from the future into present, just as it has pushed it from the present into the past. The concept is of course not new, but the amounts are at four and five times the average salary.

These all come at a cost that reduces the amount of discretionary expenditure that people have in the present and the future.

The radical solution is to disassociate the costs of people's basic needs - home, energy, basic food and clothing - from the wider economy. However we've been doped up to our eyeballs in the current system that understandably there would be bitterness from those nearing the top of the pyramid who have paid in for so long.

However not addressing the underlying problem causes exorbitant expenditure papering over the cracks - like Universal Credit propping up poverty wages.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Protecting those that don't work by penalising those that do, is a recipe for disaster in our ageing society.

Doesn't matter how well off you are, if those that deliver vital public services , produce food , deliver healthcare, decide it's not worth their while any longer then we're all stuffed.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

I was starting to think as a society we had moved on from this view, and thought we had progress seeing a tory budget prioritising the poorest.

But you not alone, I know a fair few people who agree with you, I tried to explain its not a workers against not workers thing as many of the targeted do actually work. Its a having to target the poorest who are in most need, but we have been groomed since the Thatcher years to be selfish and to treat budgets as in a whats in it for me thing, and this mentality we have has contributed to the state the country is in today as we have been prioritising individuals over society.

When I used to claim sickness benefits, I know the years I was on it, there was no inflationary increases, in fact it was frozen. I also remember a period I was on JSA for about 2 months, I was so poor my sister had to buy my food shopping for me. My experience serves to remind me there is people in a worse situation, those people targeted by the measures. There will always be claims there is a life of luxury, everyone has max sky tv etc. But I only know the reality of my own experience and the people I have met of which none lead a life thats been painted.

I am not sure what people were expecting from this budget, Labour has not managed to get back in to power, on the basis that people think they were a party that spent too much, that built up the countries debt, and we couldnt afford their plans. But yet on this budget people were expecting a nationwide give away whilst there was a 55 billion hole to be plugged, Truss tried to give the least needy what they wanted and it needed the BoE to intervene to prevent financial carnage.

I think we are at the start of a social shift which the Tories have recognised hence this budget, but of course we still have many who not part of that shift, wondering why this budget is so "unfair" and "rewarding lazyness".

I could see the unrest starting as far back as spring, when the CoL payments were first announced loads popped out the wood work "where is my share", "me too" etc. I think it is fair to say the country is split on this, as it is on Brexit.

I do think we have too many taxes, I think we could have scrapped HS2 to ease the tax burden, I think council taxes should be abolished and replaced with central funding, I also think there needs to be more pressure to get wages up closer to inflation, a family member works for one of the energy companies making windfall profits (the actual wealthy part of the company not the supplier part) and is getting a 2% pay rise which is a complete joke, tried to tell her the poor arent to blame for that, but she has made her mind up. There is a union where she works, but it sounds like they not doing anything about it.

I also think education and the NHS were probably right to be protected the most, however we clearly need more spending on housing and communities. Plus a plan for our economy, I think my local area most of the local GDP is from private landlords these days and takeaways. Actual traditional sources of GDP in this country are on the decline. We have a big hospitality industry which is about to get wrecked as thats reliant on people having disposable cash. We heading for very grim times I think, and the current prediction of things getting better as early as 2024 seems very optimistic to me.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

You do realise the tories are responsible for 70% of the debt accrued by this country since 1945 don't you? Not sure this 55 billion hole is the catastrophe it's been painted either and isn't just an excuse for another round of austerity

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Link ? Source ?

You dont think being short of £55 billion is an issue ?
Granted its small compared to our overall debt (almost 2.5 trillion) but its not going to make it any better.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

House of commons library iirc

If it isn't an issue for America, Germany or Japan, whose borrowing is far greater as a proportion of gdp why is it so vital for us to get to grips with it right now instead of waiting for the other disasters to settle down a bit

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

I dont think "its ok for us to be in debt because someone is in even bigger debt" is a great excuse or plan.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Almost every country will almost always be in debt - the idea being that the money spent now innovating (e.g. in infrastructure) will reap rewards in economic growth therefore in turn making it easier and cheaper to pay off.

Similar to taking out a 25 year mortgage now. In year 24, after wage rises and career progression the burden of payments (should!) be much lower. You would also hope the house you have now would enjoy a rise in value.

However the problem is when you get into debt, and a deficit, without investing in infrastructure to promote growth. If you get the balance right it should work well. I accept it's theoretical.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Here is a different take on the mini-budget and how it may not have totally Trusses or Kwartangs fault the markets were spooked. Instead of coming to the rescue the BoE was the protagonist. Trussenomics could have been given a go!

I don’t know but it’s always best to absorb all information.

https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/decem...he-government/

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

While I don’t agree with much of the take, I do agree the BoE were intervening in a manner to maintain economic orthodoxy. It was undoubtedly backing that the Government would back down before it did.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

I just think there could have been another way, we could have had another outcome other than the shit sandwich we have just been served by Jeremy Chunt (silent H).

Truss wasn’t the answer, but neither did anyone ask for Sunak, at least Truss was put in place by some kind of democratic process (albeit by a minority of the population). Sunak was appointed, by those who know best.

The problem for me is, in 96 (or 95 I can’t remember) Labour was a proper alternative. I believed they were credible.

But even with the complete and utter firesale that is the Tory party, who I dislike. I would rather hold my nose and vote for those knobheads than Labour.

Labour offer nothing

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

The UK is in decline regardless of the colour of the tie. If you go to far left you will have the London elites rail on you as a racist. Go to far right and the international consensus will rail against you in the marketplace.

Sadly despite much emphasis on sovereignty in the last decade of British politics it appears we aren't very sovereign at all.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

It wouldnt be normally such a big issue, but the problem is the previous short lived PM drawn attention to the countries finances by not attempting to explain how her tax cuts were funded and withholding important economic data, this led to the currency crashing and the BoE having to intervene to prevent a financial meltdown. Even the IMF started commenting on the situation.

As to historical debt, I have the mindset I dont hold entities for things that happened decades ago. Both parties have changed radically over the years from their historical positions and will continue to do so. Because of this I tend not to be loyal to one given party over my lifetime.

Also comparing 2010 to now, if you look at spending graphs there is a clear difference. Back in 2010 housing and community funding got absolutely decimated as did the welfare system, it was a clear target and there was also funding cuts in real terms for governmental departments, this time round welfare has actually been protected and in real cash terms things are either going up below inflation or stagnant, but no 2010 level cuts. It is austerity but its nothing like what we seen in 2010.

---------- Post added at 00:44 ---------- Previous post was at 00:27 ----------

It is an interesting take, the issues I have with it is I think the current inflation has not been caused by an over supply of money, most of the inflation is on essentials which will get brought regardless of the money supply, as proven by the EPG, the 10% rise for the poor and CoL payments, the government will buy essentials for people when they can no longer afford to do so. I would say the primary driver of current inflation is a combination of a shift in the energy market and shareholder driven.

The government has recognised this and has announced they are adopting a policy of isolating us from the energy market for our energy, the plan is to be self dependent on our energy requirements which would then shield us at least to a degree from a now very volatile market.

The inflation rises has led to (in my opinion) opportunistic price increases on various goods, which is now impacting things like food and other products, further increasing inflation. Time will tell if demand for goods brought from supermarkets go down as people get poorer, but my expectation is there will not be a significant drop.

One area where I think spending will go down is hospitality, that sector is going to get absolutely decimated, but will we see deflation there? unlikely as many hospitality business owners have revealed they simply cannot afford to do so, if anything further price increases are on the way, instead will just be a lot of liquidated businesses.

The areas that will be first to see change is luxury goods, Phones, computer components in particular are clearly currently overpriced, previously tolerated by the consumers, but the problem here is that these arent really the current problem, we not in this crisis because people cannot afford to buy a TV.

The BoE have a remit thats controlled by the government, and one obvious problem during Truss's reign is she was working against the BoE. Instead of with it. It has a remit to control inflation, and it has only limited tools to do so, the idea behind raising rates been to reduce the money supply which in turn would be expected to curb consumer spending and of course that slows down growth, yet the PM and the chancellor for the time adopted an aggressive growth strategy totally at odds of what the BoE was trying to do.

There is also an argument that any spending needs to be well targeted, you give a poor person £1000 its pretty much a given thats going straight back into the local economy, they have no choice but to spend it for their day to day living. Give it to a top wage earner, and there is a fair chance it just sits in a bank account for a decade or more which does far less for the economy.

So those are my issues with the view point offered in that article.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

The Tories seem to be hell bent on losing the next election. :dozey:

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Spot on. How many NHS consultants "retired" early? Why the Judges got a "deal" but not the NHS consultants?

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

I think they will succeed in that plan, we will be lumped with Labour.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Same here. People change, parties change and the needs of the country changes, which is why i'm a floating voters

I don't think it's sensible to support any party come what may as if they are a football team.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

To be fair Richard, I don't think any football team would do a much worse job than the shower we've got running the country at the moment.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Again, can anyone point me in the direction of the growth bit?

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Well the opposition have recognised and accepted the 55bilion deficit, so what would be the suggestion for them to do whilst making sure that deficit is paid for?

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

The top 20 richest Brits could clear it and hardly dent their nest egg

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

From an opposite position, those who are capable and not working and in receipt of benefits should be making a contribution to society, a few hours a week will hardly make a dent after all.

Re: Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services
 

Whilst I've not followed this recently, my understanding is that a more economically-trusted trusted Party would be given more time to sort the deficit out rather than try and clear it in two years. Potentially tipping the country into a recession with more councils following the likes of Slough and Croydon into bankruptcy. Kent and Hampshire are warning they might follow too.

I understand the non-doms status would be removed by Labour, which should generate additional tax revenue.

Finally, there is of course the elephant in the room which has contributed to the raft of short-term Prime Ministers we've had since Cameron: Brexit of the hardest variety. This has cost us a reduction in GDP which has fed through into less tax. Unlike our peers, we're not back to pre-Covid levels of economic activity.

To provide growth and therefore reduce the tax deficit, Tony Danker of the CBI today called on the government to consider fixed-term visas to address the "vast” labour shortages facing British businesses. “Let’s have economic migration in areas where we aren’t going to get the people and skills at home anytime soon,” He urged the government to raise its game “Still, we argue over the Northern Ireland protocol,” he will say. “Still, we argue over sovereignty. Get round the table; do the deal; unlock the TCA.”