Originally Posted by Halcyon (Post 36121174)

I dont think many people even know there are elections taking place.

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36121178)

It would be unsurprising to see the Tories do badly, councils are a safe way to protest vote

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36121188)

We too are LD/Tory swing area. My wife who tends to LD has read the leaflets and is likely to vote Tory on a couple of local issues important to her.

Originally Posted by General Maximus (Post 36121181)

I saw opinions last night that said the tories were going to suffer in terms of the number of seats but it isnt expected that they will lose control of many councils.

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36121193)

Although Riverpark is an LD own-goal, I think enough people will vote on principle and vote tactically to send a message to Conservative Central Office.

The local Tories are so aware of the toxic nature of the ruling Executive that are calling themselves 'Local Conservatives". Desperate stuff ..

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36121187)

We have had quite a few visits this year from the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates and representatives as well as plenty of leaflets.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121199)

[/COLOR]Not sure about what the Lib Dems target should be

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36121204)

I also failed to notice that they have changed the polling station. I wonder how many will be caught out by that?

Originally Posted by General Maximus (Post 36121205)

same here but in my case the buildings are literally right next to each other

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36121217)

No local elections round here.

Originally Posted by General Maximus (Post 36121269)

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36121271)

But I’ve never missed an election since I turned 18 and I’m not starting now.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121302)

So Labour have recovered past 2019 but they’re not destined for government yet.

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36121303)

This is saying a lot, this is after nearly 12 years of Conservative Government! :shocked:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121306)

I think Johnson will survive because there isn’t an obvious alternative

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121302)

Makes sense. The vote share and seat projections at the national level also suggest that it would be a hung Parliament similar to 2017 albeit some would have Labour as the biggest party and others not. 2017 was similar in vote share to 2018.

So Labour have recovered past 2019 but they’re not destined for government yet. They are probably a bit disappointed it isn’t more. They’ll want some signs of recovery in Scotland which is yet to count.

Lib Dems have to be the happiest party this morning.

Tories probably a bit pleased some of England wasn’t as bad as the worst fears but London has been a disaster. They didn’t expect to lose Westminster especially.

Originally Posted by peanut (Post 36121311)

The other alternative is the longer he stays, the worse it'll get for the Tories.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121306)

I think Johnson will survive because there isn’t an obvious alternative

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36121325)

Labour folk passing this off as very good for them, are deluded. They should have caused a huge dent, it’s not even been terminal for the Tories.

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36121367)

The BBC have said that if this was an election, Labour would have 35% and Conservatives 30%


Yet no mention that local and general election votes differ wildly.


Another nail in their so-called neutrality coffin

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36121372)

Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36121372)

Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121378)

The Tories are doing worse today than they did overnight. Now down nearly 300 seats which is putting them at the higher end of bad predictions.

Lib Dems are up over 150.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36121391)

… which perhaps gives some useful context to the Tory losses. The Lib Dems aren’t going to form a government in my lifetime. For the Tories to be dislodged those votes have to go to Labour, and they aren’t. Lib Dems are a safe protest vote, especially in council elections.

Of course the Tories have had a kicking - that’s actually what’s meant to happen at mid-term elections. It’s just that the opposition has been so bad for so long that the blue team has had a relatively easy ride recently. Tories mustn’t be complacent off the back of these results but Labour, once it’s finished crowing this evening, really needs to take a good look at itself because it’s not on course for power at this rate.

(Edit) one further observation from today: based on these results, London is now representative of nothing but itself. We should bear that in mind while politicians and journalists who spend most of their time there are telling us what we should think about these results.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121394)

Tories now down 384. At the more pessimistic end of projections

---------- Post added at 18:21 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------

Updated seat projections after the days results: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak...CyrZzDs6EqAAAA



---------- Post added at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:21 ----------



I think the Liberal Democrats pose a bit more of a threat to the Tories than you're giving them credit for. They won't form a Government but they could take a good 10-20 seats from the Conservatives in the South on a good night. They do quite well at attracting the sort of middle-class, university-educated but reasonably liberal demographic that has helped the Tories in such areas. What I believe has kept them back in recent years was the fear of Corbyn driving voters not to take a chance. Likewise, the threat of the Tories has kept a lot of Labour voters coming back to Labour even during the Corbyn years. (Of course, if Starmer goes as a result of this beer incident then who knows).

In addition whilst London is only representative of itself you are seeing further evidence of a realignment of politics with Tories containing to set weaker across the South rather than just London. The only difference is whilst London is going more Labour the Liberals are picking off seats elsewhere.

Finally, the biggest threat to the Tories is that I don't think this is a typical mid-term election shellacking where the Government has got the unpopular work out of the way and can now focus on re-election with an easier couple of years. They've now got high inflation, a cost of living crisis and a possible recession to come the impacts of which have still lot fully hit. Where is the turnaround going to come from?

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121408)

Tories now on -467

Originally Posted by General Maximus (Post 36121410)

Ouch. That is painfull. At least they'll get the message.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121419)

As I said earlier the problems now though are harder to solve. You can't have an agenda of 'stop inflation', 'stop the cost of living increase' and so on.

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36121445)

Snigger! Lib Dems won overall for the first time here. Snigger. Complacency wiped off a few faces. However our sitting Tory MP will be another case entirely.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121419)

As I said earlier the problems now though are harder to solve. You can't have an agenda of 'stop inflation', 'stop the cost of living increase' and so on.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36121730)

Thatcher won on an agenda which included taming inflation, didn't she?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22073527

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36121762)

Just an update on Damien’s post on the 5th May.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1652115853

Actual results

Labour gains - 108
Conservative losses - 488

So, according to the DM, it was greater than a "disaster" for the Conservatives and just above "gaining ground" for Labour…