Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Not the Christmas present Johnson asked for.

https://news.sky.com/story/north-shr...hnson-12497814

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Probably not, but the tide has turned anyway. Labour have someone who is electable. That's all they needed.

What talent the Tories did have, they've discarded as they don't subscribe to the holy of holy's. Beyond the main policy of getting 'it' done they have nothing except accumulating wealth for themselves (and 'it' has also turned out to be a disaster, surprise, surprise...).

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

I’d definitely open with that, got any other good material?

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

His fate was sealed long before now.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

In regards to the question, probably not - I don’t think he wants to be - but I have no idea who will replace him atm. I think we’ll see some manoeuvring in the spring.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Yes, there is no one obvious to challenge him yet. Are Truss, Gove and Sunak likely to? Perhaps only if he stepped down.

He'll be super rich once he does. Speaking tours, autobiography, "How I got Brexit done" etc.

---------- Post added at 08:04 ---------- Previous post was at 08:03 ----------

By whom?

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

They're kidding themselves if they think a change of leader is going to make much difference.

What were the Tory strengths?

the Economy? Record debt with inflation at over 5%, and wages way behind that. Folks are going to get poorer and they don't like that.

Immigration? Record numbers coming over the channel..

The NHS? Tbf they never pretended to give a toss about that.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

The problem is, regardless of your first post, there is no credible opposition. You could stick Sooty in charge of the Tories and they’d still win the next election.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

The polls show Labour ahead. Corbyn has been the Conservatives' reason for winning the last election, not Johnson. Now Corbyn's gone the gloves are off.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

It’s probably hard to pinpoint exactly when as it’s more deaths by a thousand cuts than getting knifed by Gove in the back.

Getting MPs to back Paterson a particular low that got almost universal condemnation here both for being corrupt or (at minimum) stupid idea that would so obviously play badly it calls into question political judgement.

As Pierre and yourself note he can’t really be arsed with the job anyway. Deliver Brexit and ride off into the sunset a hero is now bogged down in mundane and trivial matters like actually governing. A book deal, a newspaper column. Back to the days of being able to afford his own wallpaper.

The problem with all Tory scheming is the people who want the top job want to keep their hands clean.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

How to plan your xmas party

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Of course anything is possible, but when push comes to shove, I cannot see Starmer and the Current Labour from bench overturning an 80 seat majority.

Labour have done nothing to earn their « current « rise in the polls, if and when the Tories get their house back in order Labour will have to something other than just supporting the government COVID restrictions. Contrary to what YouGov polls might say I don’t think there is much appetite for COVID passports and tighter restrictions….and that’s all Labour offer.

If they were really fighting for government they were a long long way back in this election

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

The Conservatives and Labour each have a fairly natural number of votes. The end of Corbyn has seen Labour rise back to this level and the government's failings have seen Labour move past the Conservatives. Opposing the recent Covid restrictions would be unpopular with Labour's supporters in the NHS as well as helping to divide the Conservatives. They were opposed by the Liberal Democrats though.

In this by by-election, Labour was content to take a back seat and let the Liberal Democrats take the seat. People voted tactically to send a message to Johnson. It will be interesting to see if they can hold it an he listens. Based on previous situations, the latter is a big ask.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

BoJo’s defeat last night was so big, perhaps you failed to notice Labour not winning. In fact they suffered a 10 point loss on their 2019 performance. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Leader of the Opposition.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

At the moment the 80-seat deficit is daunting for sure but the difference with Starmer over Corbyn is he isn't actively hated. People are indifferent towards him.

The biggest problem for the Tories will be inflation, rising interest rates, the rising cost of living and COVID having pushed the NHS to breaking point which will be noticed in years to come in delayed appointments. It won't be easy for the Tories to 'get their house in order' after all not breaking your own COVID laws to hold a Christmas Party should be the easy part for them.

---------- Post added at 09:41 ---------- Previous post was at 09:36 ----------

That's being put down to tactical voting though. The same as Bexley where informally Liberal Democrats voted Labour. Certainly, Labour HQ wasn't throwing themselves at this seat. Nationally Labour is polling far higher than they were the last time this seat was contested in 2019 so the only way a 10 point loss makes sense is if Labour voters smelled blood and went Lib Dem.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

The old tactical vote came into play and Labour only half heartedly campaigned. Your favourite rag the Guardian was advising voters to vote Lib. If voters are waking up to tactical voting it definitely is good night Tory Boys :)

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Yeah …. I’m not convinced. Tactical voting almost never occurs to such a massive extent in British elections, and certainly not when the outcome is a mid-term by election that won’t affect the parliamentary arithmetic in the slightest. This is a huge vote against Boris Johnson and a very serious wake-up call for his party which must now decide if it wants him to continue as leader. But it isn’t an endorsement of the Labour Party in any way. There’s nothing in last night’s result that can possibly support your claim that Starmer is “electable”.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Surely tactical voting is most likely to happen when it won’t affect anything?

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Have you seen the latest national opinion polls? ;)

As ever in elections, its not about who you want, but who you don't want.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

I think it's hard to explain why this result breaks with the national polling so abruptly without anti-Tory voters tactically voting. We saw this happen Chesham and Amersham, we saw the reverse happening in Bexley.

It doesn't make any sense that Labour would lose 10 points on their 2019 result, one of their worse since the war, yet nationally be polling at some of their next numbers since they lost in 2010 whilst the Liberal Democrats outperform their national polling by quite some margin. Tactical voting is in play here. And it's more likely, not less likely, to happen in a by-election anyway. By-Elections tend to produce weirder results than the national election.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Have you? Last night’s result bears no resemblance to them at all.

Boris’ card is marked now. Let’s wait and see how electable the country thinks Starmer is once he’s been defenestrated and replaced with someone who looks a bit more grounded.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

I saw an interesting point on another forum regarding potential choices of a next leader of the Conservative Party. The votes in the last general election for the Conservatives broadly come from four factions;

1. Traditional 'One Nation' conservatives
2. The right wingers who would have voted for the Reform Party until Nigel Farage stood them down
3. The Red Wall who didn't want Jeremy Corbyn and/or wanted Brexit done
4. The non-politically engaged who like Boris Johnson as he seemed 'a bit of a laugh' or 'one of us'

Anyone who appeals to 1 such as Sunak or Hunt wouldn't appeal to 3 and 4. Anyone who appeals to 2 such as maybe Priti Patel might get a few people from 1 and 3 but opens up a very Lib Dem shaped hole in the political landscape. Someone who appeals to 3 needs to charm former Labour voters again and will lose from 1 and 2. Someone who appeals to 4 loses the other three as I think there's a need for someone serious in place.

In summary, Boris Johnson did a really good job at bringing these factions together and can't think of anyone else who could do this right now. Without Boris Johnson, I still think the Conservatives would have won last election but the majority would have been significantly smaller.

Urgh, need a shower after praising Boris Johnson!!

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

What I'm disappointed about is that when Cummins left, Johnson brought in an experienced pair of hands to run No 10. This does not seem to have worked out in any way shape or form.

---------- Post added at 10:24 ---------- Previous post was at 10:23 ----------

By that stage, the distraction of Covid should be gone too.

---------- Post added at 10:29 ---------- Previous post was at 10:24 ----------

Interesting analysis.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Well I wouldn't class Carrie as an experienced pair of hands.....

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Fair point. :D

It seems a life time ago that the Conservatives took Hartlepool from Labour. But it was only May this year!

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

It’s not tactical voting. You have a Tory stronghold of Tory voters staying at home in protest and the Anti-Tory voters turning out in numbers. I don’t see it as that tactical. Just hope the message is isn’t twisted to say people want Lib Dem policies, coz we certainly don’t.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

It would appear that there’s been a degree of tactical voting based on the following, but as you say very poor turnout also

LDEM: 47.2% (+37.2)
CON: 31.6% (-31.1)
LAB: 9.7% (-12.4)
GRN: 4.6% (+1.4)
REFUK: 3.8% (+3.8)

Turnout: 46.3% (-21.6)

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

They should make it a formal arrangement, we keep being told how important our democracy is yet we're happy for tens of millions of votes to not matter in our archaic first past the post system, I hope tactical voting leads to proportional representation in the long run

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Trouble is, the current system favours the two parties that are likely to win so it's not in their interests.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Really, how many times have labour won in the last 40 years

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

A fair call.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Baroness Davidson out saying it’s last chance saloon for BJ.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Lots of people saying it's the last chance for Boris . . . probably many of the same people that said Brexit wouldn't happen, England would win the World Cup, and the Scots will gain independence ;)

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Three : They ruled from 1997 - 2010.
(from 1997 to 2005 they had the largest majority since the 1930's).

---------- Post added at 16:51 ---------- Previous post was at 16:19 ----------

This was clearly a "protest" vote.

Labour also lost out (even worse really, they lost more than 50% of their votes).

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Was kind of a rhetorical question but when it's written down like that they just might be stupid enough to think they're onto a good thing

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

So as is normally the case most of the voters didn't want LDEM but got them any way .

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2022?
 

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Ahem...

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2021/12/4.png

;)

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

:confused:
You going to have to explain your point.

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Most of the voters didn’t get the party they wanted in the General Election but got them anyway (to quote itshim)…

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2022?
 

2022 will be interesting.

Unlike The Times, the Conservative Party has not sacked him for lying.

So he may well see it through.

Interesting times...

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2022?
 

One wonders if he's taken a leaf from the Cummings "get yer own back" book, and has armed himself with copies of some nice juicy Emails and private letters . . . . you know, just in case

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2022?
 

Yes but Boris wrote them all so it would be self-incriminating :D

I genuinely believe we will see him in court one day. Which court and on which charge is the question , there's many possibilities......

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

As l said " as normally"

---------- Post added at 16:38 ---------- Previous post was at 16:38 ----------

So we agree :angel:

---------- Post added at 16:39 ---------- Previous post was at 16:38 ----------

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

If your assertion is correct - that most voters get the Liberal Democrats but don't vote for them - then surely the government in power would be Liberal Democrat and not Conservative? :confused:

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

NEW: Boris Johnson has agreed to sack chief whip Mark Spencer. Said to be gunning for Simon Case also. Source: Politics For All.

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Ouch…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1639867388

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

I guess from that we can conclude Steve Baker is not a lover of free speech.

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Who the hell is Steve Baker ?

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

A very unpleasant individual, reminds me of something I occasionally step in

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Chair of the ERG twice (Brexiteers), Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Vice-Chair of COVID Recovery Group (ERG re-branded).

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

Nothing unpleasant about him. Just coz he’s a staunch Brexit supporter and Tory MP, who’s obviously pissed on your chips. :rolleyes:

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

He's not just a staunch brexit supporter, he's the self proclaimed brexit hard man, who refers to themselves like that, he's a joke, like most the the rabble that masquerades as our political class

Re: Will Johnson be PM in 2023? Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

It's both. The Tory voters did stay home but this is a large majority so to effectively capitalise on that those who just wanted to give the Tories a bloody nose would have to opt for the party that is best placed to defeat them.

Local Election results had suggested this would be the Liberal Democrats as did the nature of the constituency. There was a lot of messaging with the Lib Dem base and the Labour activists nationally - although locally they were upset - that Labour would concentrate on Bexley and the Libs in Shropshire.

Ed Davey didn't go to Bexley and Starmer didn't go to Shropshire. The Liberals didn't send their by-election machine down to Bexley and Labour didn't commit large resources to Shropshire. Although part of this is also down to finances when having to fight two by-elections at the same time.

The Tories will retake it in the next election because it's such a Tory stronghold though

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

If the Tories didn't retake this seat in General Election it would probably mean they had less than 100 mps left...

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

My brother in law sent facebook "link" for the Anti-tory group, that is to get anyone not Tory elected. That seems really daft, you should vote "for" something/someone not anyone not the one disliked.

Re: Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire
 

That's not how it works in this country. We vote for the ones we despise least...

Tactixal voting of course wouldn't be necessary if we had a decent electoral system, where your vote only decides the outcome of you're in a marginal constituency. One person, one equal vote doesn't apply in this country.