Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

OK folks, here it is: the Cable Forum exit poll. Please choose the party you ACTUALLY voted for. If you did not vote, for whatever reason, please choose 'did not vote'.

Previous election discussion was here: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33708465

OK I can's stand the suspense ... GO!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Here we go

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Strap in ...

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Strong rumours David Dimbleby will come in at the last moment to announce the results instead of this guy

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Exit Poll: Conservatives on 368 SEATS Majority! Sky News!

86 Seat Majority.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Huge result for them. No way does Johnson lose his seat on those numbers

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Bloody actual hell :Yikes:

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Not keen on the projection of the SNP winning every seat in Scotland. That will be down to Labour's total collapse, I bet. I'll be surprised if the Tory vote has gone down here, it's more likely the Nat vote has gone up.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Wow!

Definitely a mandate for Brexit on those numbers.

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Would the impact of the popular Ruth Davidson stepping down as leader not have impacted the Conservative vote in Scotland as well?

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Worst vote for Labour in 100 years if the result holds btw

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As much as I hate to say this, it’s a mandate for Brexit that can’t be argued against. If the exit poll converts

Corbyn and Swinson will be gonners

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Swinson from Parliament too: Looks like the SNP will win her seat

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

is there a mandate for Corbyn to remain leader of the Labour Party, on those numbers?

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Is it also a mandate for another Scottish devolution vote?

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

That was the fear, but the polling has suggested the Tory vote in Scotland has actually held up. Either that hasn’t actually happened or other factors are at play.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say the Labour vote in Scotland has collapsed to 2015 levels (or worse), significant numbers of those voters have gone to the SNP, but that even then, the SNP won’t do quite as well as predicted - I think the Tories will hold on to a couple.

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Yes, I’m a bit sceptical to be honest. The SNP didn’t win everything even in 2015, in the post-referendum spasm. I’ll be very surprised if they sweep the board.

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Sorry ... Scotland’s total is 59, not 55, so someone is hanging on somewhere. I suspect Jo Swinson and David Mundell will survive. Beyond that, who knows ...

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

:cleader::cleader::cleader:

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

If predictions are true, that the horrible Tories will win.

The public who voted for joker Boris, has let all the poor down, the homeless on the streets. the foodbanks etc etc

Boris, has promised all this stuff. It wont come true.

Margaret Thatcher done it in her time, she fooled everyone. And look what she done.
Boris is doing exactly the same.

Theresa May said 'We do not have money tree' So where has Boris found the money.

What will happen to recoup this money. Is to hit the welfare budget, and any other budget that he will recover the money.

Yes, l voted Labour. But, l did have doubts right up to the last minute. If Corbyn loses. Then he should resign tomorrow.: ad:

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Well, i’m Going to stay up for an hour.

But the exit polls have been spot on for last two elections, even with a margin of error, you would expect on these numbers Tory’s to have a majority.

So based on that, Happy.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

BREAKING: £ Sterling Sky rockets on news of Exit poll, currently up to $1.35 !

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Well the margin of error could make a huge difference if most of these seats are close but I would think they compensate for them because, as you say, they're rarely wrong.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

As Christine Jardine (Lib dem) is currently telling Huw Edwards from Edinburgh, exit polls are great at the overall national picture but prone to miss local situations, especially in very marginal seats. And most of Scotland is marginal right now.

I can live with an SNP total of 55 because with an invigorated Tory party in Westminster and (I reckon) about 30% of the vote in Scotland, there is actually nothing Nippy Sturgeon can do about it if and when Boris refuses her demands for a section 30 order for an official referendum. But as of right now I don’t think the SNP will do quite as well as suggested.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Indeed.

A forecast of a majority of 86, they only need a majority of 1.

There would have to a complete and total collapse in polling accuracy for Labour to win. Is anyone watching Putin?

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

The Economist has looked at the margin of error in the context of this year's election and even given the margin of error, it shouldn't be a hung Parliament.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...dgraphicdetail

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Not quite, worst since 1935.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Big difference to the future of the country between 1 (ERG can cause issues) and 86 (ERG cannot).

I think though the exit poll isn't so vulnerable to small swings though as they only look at specific seats.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Pip, l totally agree with you. It will be goodbye to the NHS, that will go to private hands. All the crap Boris has comes out with the gain votes will be gone.

I have always voted Labour. But, thwe people will have to feel sorry for. Is the poor.

Boris and his cronies will not give a damn for them.

The Tories have always been the rich mans party. But Labour has changed over the years.

Its is no longer the Workers party, that looks after the working man, or woman.

As soon as the final decision is in. Boris will have his 'cut throat team with him' And then decide how to recoup the money that he will promise.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Recount likely in Blyth Valley, the exit poll said that one was too close to call. Suggests (from one data point) that it's right.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Arthur, you have not always voted Labour, you are on record on this forum saying you have voted Lib Dem in the past because you didn’t like the Labour candidate. Please don’t make me look it up and link back to it again (as I have done several times in the past when you come out with this nonsense).

Furthermore, when we get to 2024 and the Tories still haven’t sold the NHS, will you finally admit that this is the biggest, most long-running lie in political history?

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

And that’s from a nearly 8k Labour majority in 2017

Bundle recount underway.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Newcastle Upon Tyne Central result Labour hold 12,278 majority

Haughton & Sunderland South Labour hold 3,115 majority

Blythe Valley Conservative win 712 Majority (recount in progress)

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Blyth Valley - Conservatives win

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Even the miners are voting for Boris now.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Brexit Party cost them Sunderland South (I think).

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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

DUP man looks like he just staggered out of the pub.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Newcastle Upon Tyne East Labour hold majority 15,463

Sunderland Central Labour hold majorty 2,964

Middlesborugh Labour hold 8,390

Swindon North Conservative hold majority 16,171

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That's a possiblity.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

I would just like to reassure Labour supporters and Remain supporters, that the election result is not a disaster. Not by a long chalk.

Brexit will bring more, not less benefits to the UK, and Conservative policies will be of far more benefit to the poor than Corbyn's, which would have bankrupted the economy.

I know that so many people have been scared of this political situation, but believe me, this is the best result we could have had. Within a year, most people will realise that this is correct.

The NHS will not be sold off, it will be better funded. Don't believe the Labour lies, just look at what happens.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Washington & Sunderland West Labour hold majority 3,723

Newcastle Upon Tyne North Labour hold majority 5,765

Halton Labour hold majority 18,975

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Drilling down through the exit poll stats with Jeremy Vine, it seems clear that a lot of Labour/Leave seats are indeed forecast to go blue, as many of us have been predicting for many weeks now, to the disdain of our resident remainers.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Even where they are holding seats their majority is reduced.

Our resident remainers will not be very happy in the morning.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Arthur, I understand your concern, but I can assure you that the poor will not suffer more under the Conservatives. We are now coming out of the austerity caused by Labour's prolific overspending, and you will soon see how the Conservatives will change things for the better.

As far as Brexit is concerned, the advantages of trading with the whole world on our terms will benefit this country. The EU is more of a drag on our economy than many people appreciate.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Also, all those young people who registered to vote in the last couple of weeks ... I guess they went out and voted Tory.

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Labour hold South Shields majority: 9,585

Conservatives hold Nuneaton majority 13,144

Conservatives hold Broxbourne majority 19,807

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Wow - That was a Marginal Tory hold, in 2017.

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Hearing Tories have Gained Bishop Auckland from Labour.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Can't see a result for that yet.

Labour hold Wansbeck majority: 814

Conservatives hold Fylde Majority 16,611

Workington Conservative gain majority 4,176

Labour hold Islwyn majority (to follow)

Darlington Conservative gain majority (to follow)

Rutherglen & Hamilton SNP gain majority 5,230

Jarrow Labour hold majority (to follow)

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Workington man has roared ... Con gain.

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Ratherglen and Hamilton West ... SNP win

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Only one result, but the swing to SNP is slightly smaller than the exit poll predicted. Here’s hoping.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

CON Gain Darlington.

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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Can't edit my post to add the majorities so

Darlington 3,294

Jarrow 65,103

Caerphilly Labour hold majority (to follow)

Speaker holds Chorley

Ealing North Labour hold

Gateshead Labour hold.

As the results are coming quicker than the numbers of votes I'll stop posting the majorities.

Makerfield Labour hold

Rayleigh & Wickford Conservative hold.

Leicester South Labour hold

Peterborough Conservative gain

Bracknell Conservative hold

Knowsley Labour hold

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

CON Gain Peterborough from Labour!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Majority 2,599

Vale of Clwyd Conservative gain

Basildon & Billericay Conservative hold

Angus SNP gain ( sorry Chris)

Wrexham Conservative gain

Lewisham East Labour hold

Putney Labour gain

Wigan Labour hold

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

CON gain Vale of Clwyd from Labour!

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Con gain Wrexham from Labour!

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Kilmarnock SNP hold

Rochdale Labour hold

Rushcliffe Conservative hold

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Absolutely brilliant, can’t believe Wrexham has gone blue. Really hoping the two Flintshire seats turn as well.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Basildon South Conservative hold

Walthamstow Labour hold

Arfon Plaid Cumru hold

Chelmsford Conservative hold

Down North Alliance gain

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Con Gain Leigh from Labour!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Meridan Conservative hold

Strangford DUP hold

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Angus gone from Con to SNP, swing around 5.5%. If that’s the picture across Scotland the SNP will get most of the 55 seats they have been forecast. The Tory vote is down a bit, but the Labour vote is absolutely collapsing in Scotland and the SNP are the beneficiaries.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Thurrock Conservative hold

Vale of Glamorgan Consrvative hold

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Stockton North, Leicester East both Labour hold

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I've had enough, off to bed.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Some of the results are astonishing, the red wall is collapsing even north of the border, I am so glad to see the entryist marxist party have a big kick in the balls!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

CON Gain Clwyd South from Labour!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Yes indeed, I have mixed feelings about it. The SNP surge in Scotland is being driven by a total Labour collapse, with those few people who still supported them in 2017 going to the SNP. The Tory vote seems to have held up reasonably well in Scotland but with Labour out of the picture the Nats are benefiting.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

CON Gain Blackpool South from Labour!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

They won't get fooled again!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Iain Duncan Smith holds his seat. Chingford & Woodford Green.

CON Gain Stockton South from Labour.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

The SNP are on course for major gains and fair play to them.

People are waking up to the marxist, entryist, and racist party that is Labour.

Jews will breathe a sigh of relief tonight.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

CON Gain Wolverhampton NE from Labour.

CON Gain Scunthorpe from Labour.

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CON Gain Redcar from Labour.

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CON Gain Burnley from Labour.

CON Gain Ipswich from Labour.

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CON Gain West Bromwich from Labour.

CON Gain Ynys Mon from Labour.

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CON Gain Bishop Auckland from Labour.

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Chuka Umunna DEFEATED in London & Westminster seat. CON Hold

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CON Gain Heywood & Middleton from Labour.

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CON Gain Eastbourne from Lib Dems!

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Con Gain Stroud from Labour.

CON Gain Bridgend from Labour.

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Sky News now forecasting Big Tory win between 358 - 368 seats. Labour 192 - 202. Tory Majority of 66 - 86 Seats.

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CON Gain High Peak from Labour.

Zac Goldsmith loses his seat to Lib Dems.

CON Gain Barrow & Furness from Labour.

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Con Gain Delyn from Labour

Conservatives reach 150 Seats.

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CON Gain Sedgefield from Labour : Tony Blair’s old seat!

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CON Gain Don Valley from Labour. (Caroline Flint loses seat)

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SNP’s Stephen Gethins loses seat to Lib Dems!

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CON Gain Great Grimsby from Labour!

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Boris Johnson holds seat despite an attempt to oust him.

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BREAKING: Jo Swinson has lost her Seat in Dunbartonshire to SNP!!!

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BREAKING: Tories win their 326th seat. Winning the 2019 General Election.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Conservatives have gained my area (Ashfield) from Labour.
Its only the second time in about 70 years its not been red (that was for a brief 2 years in the 1970's when the Conservatives won a By-Election by around 300 votes).
In fact, not only did Labout lose it today, they actually came 3rd, behind a local Independant.

+

Conservatives now on 348, and still rising.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Well, it’s all over bar the shouting. Labour collapse everywhere, which is great for the UK but annoyingly has put the SNP miles out in front in Scotland. Tories’ vote share in Scotland held up well enough but Labour tanked here as badly as anywhere and the Nats picked up all those votes.

Prediction ... Boris will say “now is not the time” for another referendum in Scotland.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

All over but for 1 result still to be returned.

Con 364
Lab 203
Lib Dem 11
SNP 48
Others 23

Finally a Government with a majority again. Let's hope Boris delivers.

I take your point about the SNP. Sturgeon will be pushing for another independence referendum.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

indeed, 5 years of wee jimmy bleating about a referendum. Boris won't give her one.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

On the one hand it's too depressing for words, but trying (desperately!) to look on the bright side:-

At least is he isn't dependent on the hard right wing/ERG side of his party any longer - they might be as gutted as Labour now their bonkers no deal won't happen.

Pleased to hear words about One nation Toryism (the slightly less nasty kind). However we'll see...

With many seats across the north of England there is going to be pressure from those MPs to genuinely invest in the region.

Brexit - people now know exactly what deal is on offer and they've made their choice. Still think its a gigantic mistake that future generations will never forgive us for, but lets move on.

And there's always Canada...

(oh and its the Office Xmas Party today, i shall be having a few... :))

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He may have roared but he's still got a crap football team. Doubt the Cons can solve that ;)

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

When you look at a colour coded map of the results, the Labour seats appear in clumps.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

I was just about to post the same thing! A hugely increased majority may serve to dilute out Francois, Redwood, Cash etc. It will be interesting to see which way things will go. Will the government move further right or back towards the centre? I don't believe that Boris Johnson is really that right wing but is more a traditional Conservative somewhere between Thatcher and Major.

That said, place your bets on which of these will be first to go;

• Extra NHS funding/50k nurses
• 20k more police officers
• An Australian points based integration system
• Millions per week for science schools and apprentices
• Net zero on carbon by 2050
• No rise in income tax, VAT or national insurance

BTW, I voted for 'other' in the poll up there ^^^. Tactical vote for David Gauke. That went well!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Boom tish, I here all week, try the fish.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Well I'm gutted. 5 more years of that eejit, as well as Wee Krankie

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Probably but this is almost the perfect result for the SNP to push for one again.

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That always happens. Labour win urban areas, Tories rural ones.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

The Scots really need a dose of reality. They're running an 8% deficit(that includes oil revenues). The EU limit is 3%. They can't be allowed to continue to hold the English to ransom and get unfair funding levels.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

I don't believe so, more an emphasis of how much Scotland wanted to remain in the EU

The only good thing to come out of this election is that Swinson and Corbyn are gone (or will be in the latter case)

Brexit will now be delivered and i hope that it's the land of positives that was promised.

Because whilst myself and my wife will be OK regardless of what happens.I will not give two hoots for those that suffer if it doesn't, they voted for it. IF it all goes wrong they can suffer the consequences and their complaints will fall i suspect on many deaf ears.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Not everyone up here wants Independence.

I sick and fed up with all the division and wish it would all just go away.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

55% of us voted for unionist parties last night. Despite the gales of hot air coming out of Nicola Sturgeon, nothing very much has changed.

After the 2014 referendum there was a nationalist spasm in Scottish politics and the Nats ended up with 56 seats. That clearly over corrected itself in 2017, and they lost around 20. Now they’ve got roughly half of those back, but don’t let the first past the post system or the distribution of those votes fool you. A referendum is a one person, one vote, across the whole country, no constituencies. So the actual proportion of votes for the different parties last night tells us something useful and shouldn’t be ignored.

Boris is not going to grant a section 30 order while he’s focused on Brexit. He has no reason to do so. Sturgeon knows this. She will be especially shrill over the coming months but really, it is now all about the 2010 Holyrood election. If they can get re-elected with an unambiguous manifesto commitment to another referendum (I.e. not one caveated with comments about significant political changes) then it will be hard to say no. I could tolerate (just about) a second referendum in 2024. Quebec held a second one a decade on, the separatists there lost it, very narrowly, but the result was the effective death of the separatist movement as an effective political force. That I think is what we have to aim for in Scotland now, assuming of course the SNP aren’t unseated in 2021 - their domestic record on the big devolved ministries in health, education and policing are all absolutely dire, and of course next year there is going to be a very embarrassing trial of their former leader on some pretty lurid charges.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

She'll follow the yellow brick road but will be foiled by the wizard of Bozz;)

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Small point but the Exit poll was right and so was the overall polling going into the election.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Great to see all the party hoppers lose their jobs and income.

They did say Brexit would cost jobs......

Maybe one thing that could be introduced is a mandatory by election if you change party.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Gets my vote.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Another great birthday present

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I lasted until 1:40am.

woke up one happy person.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Agreed

Meanwhile*, over at Momentum/JC4PM...

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...6&d=1576240361

h/t to @gariusl

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Job losses coming thick and fast for those who tried to stop Brexit...

....but this man needs a new job
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1576240172

:rofl:

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

THIS made me smile :D

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

I like this one it proves she's a true lefty
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...tion-vote-2019

Mathematically she had a 60/60 chance of getting it right.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

It’s quite depressingly unsurprising how many of the usual momentum loons were all over the Twatter last night insisting this was a photoshop conspiracy.

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ICM and Savanta have a bit of explaining to do, they were adamant in the last couple of weeks that Labour only had a 6pt deficit to make up. Opinium seems to have got it right.

The exit poll grasped the general thrust across the UK but as many folk said on the night, too much of Scotland was marginal for a meaningful prediction. The SNP made gains, but 13 is quite a bit fewer than the predicted 20.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

And mine.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Latest from one of the main EU’s Brexit negotiator, Guy Verhoftstadt:

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Even Verhofstwat has got the message. Good.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Haha look at these idiots...

Leeds protest against General Election result called 'Not My Prime Minister' planned for tomorrow

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/news/le...ction-17416551

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Yeah, there’s meant to be one in Glasgow as well.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

BREAKING: FINAL result in from St. Ives: Conservative hold.

Takes Conservatives Commons majority of 80, on 365 Seats, with a possible working majority of 87.

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

Exit polls have been accurate for the last 3 elections which I why i didn’t bother staying up late!

Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
 

All of them. He will now sell this country to america for a silver dollar.