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-   -   Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit. (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33707869)

Pierre 15-07-2019 11:33

Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
I know the Brexit thread is on sabbatical and I post this in full knowledge it may be taken down. But I thought this story too important to not share.

Happy for comments to be disabled but I think people should read it.

https://timesofmalta.com/articles/vi....email=0A=0ATo

papa smurf 15-07-2019 12:12

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
It's definatly worth reading.

Damien 15-07-2019 12:13

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
One thing compared to the Greek crisis is the banks are better isolated from each other since 2008 plus Italy has been 'on the bring' for a few years ago giving time for banks to reduce their exposures to Italian debt.

Hugh 15-07-2019 16:27

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Interesting article in the LSE blog about this.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...urces-of-risk/

Pierre 18-07-2019 10:36

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36002764)
Interesting article in the LSE blog about this.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...urces-of-risk/

From that:

Quote:

The Italian government has around EUR 53bn, or 3% of GDP, in outstanding arrears as of 2018. Only about EUR 10bn (0.6% of GDP) of these arrears were included in the public debt figures, on the basis of European statistical rules.

As such, the securitisation of these public sector arrears in and of itself is not bad. The formalisation around the terms of repayment via securitisation could indeed accelerate the debt’s repayment or, alternatively, facilitate conversion into a useable tax rebate. Moreover, the transition of arrears into a tradeable security would expedite their removal from the balance sheets of government suppliers,
Isn't that the kind of fiscal slight of hand that got us all in the crap 11 years ago?

Hugh 18-07-2019 10:56

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36003150)
From that:



Isn't that the kind of fiscal slight of hand that got us all in the crap 11 years ago?

No - that was all about hiding bad debt in CDOs with other debt; this is all out in the open, so people know the amount of risk involved.

Mr K 18-07-2019 11:24

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
I don't think we need worry about Italy, maybe look closer to home...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889
Quote:

The UK will fall into recession next year if there is a no-deal Brexit, the country's fiscal watchdog has said.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said economic growth would fall by 2% by the end of 2020 if it left the bloc without an agreement.

papa smurf 18-07-2019 11:28

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36003171)
I don't think we need worry about Italy, maybe look closer to home...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889

The office for impending doom peddling more project fear;)

nomadking 18-07-2019 11:37

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36003171)
I don't think we need worry about Italy, maybe look closer to home...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889

If that is true, then accepting the Withdrawal Agreement would only delay it by a year. How come Germany only narrowly missed being recession?

Carth 18-07-2019 11:57

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36003177)
If that is true, then accepting the Withdrawal Agreement would only delay it by a year. How come Germany only narrowly missed being recession?

They manipulate to their advantage?

Maggy 18-07-2019 18:46

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Keep to the topic please.Brexit is not the real topic.

Sephiroth 19-07-2019 22:34

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
I can't wait for the EU to implode when the Euro goes phut and/or Italy caves.

Hugh 19-07-2019 22:53

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36003398)
I can't wait for the EU to implode when the Euro goes phut and/or Italy caves.

Strangely enough, I’m not - I tend not to look forward to things that could impact hundreds of millions of people adversely, and could put multiple countries into recession, negatively affecting those who can least afford it.

daveeb 19-07-2019 22:56

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36003408)
Strangely enough, I’m not - I tend not to look forward to things that could impact hundreds of millions of people adversely, and could put multiple countries into recession, negatively affecting those who can least afford it.


Spot on. This is the problem with ideologies, people lose sight of the human aspect.

OLD BOY 19-07-2019 22:58

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36003398)
I can't wait for the EU to implode when the Euro goes phut and/or Italy caves.

I don't think many people actually want that to happen, Seph, but sadly I think it will. And I say again, we don't want to be in its sphere when that happens.

Sephiroth 19-07-2019 23:08

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36003408)
Strangely enough, I’m not - I tend not to look forward to things that could impact hundreds of millions of people adversely, and could put multiple countries into recession, negatively affecting those who can least afford it.

An understandable sentiment - but one of the underlying influences on the Brexit vote was the possibility of Euro/EU implosion.
The Euro deserves no less and by corollary the EU.

pip08456 19-07-2019 23:08

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by daveeb (Post 36003411)
Spot on. This is the problem with ideologies, people lose sight of the human aspect.

All the more reason for us to get out now!

OLD BOY 19-07-2019 23:16

Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36003418)
All the more reason for us to get out now!

Just don't mention the 'B' word!

Itis really worrying. The southern European economies are weak, and another crash like 2008 is going to affect all of them. They may have more resilience, but I suspect it is nowhere near enough.


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