European Elections 2017
 

France are soon having their national elections. The biggest of which is President. Hollande is stepping down after deciding approval ratings of 4% are not a great start to a campaign.

Leaving the main candidates:

- Fillon - former favorite. Republican whose recently run into trouble after allegations he paid his wife state money to do nothing.
- Le Pen - National front candidate. Expected to make the final around easily but then to lose to whoever else makes the run-off.
- Macron - former Prime Minster, current favorite. Independent candidate whose a centrist but waving a wide of public support.

The socialists also elected someone who won't win.

In France if no candidate gets over 50% it goes to a run off between the two most popular. It almost always goes to that runoff.

Re: French Elections 2017
 

Der Spiegel

The article is about a year old but quite interesting in that Marine has been carefully distancing herself from the most extremeist views of her father and even her surname campaigning as Marine.

Re: French Elections 2017
 

None of them won their regions IIRC.

Re: French Elections 2017
 

Personally l would be reasonably happy if Macron became president.

Re: French Elections 2017
 

Zut alors, the French have their own thread. Frexit anyone? :D

Re: French Elections 2017
 

Marine doesn't want to go that far, but her policies would put her in trouble with the EU mantra. So she might call for Frexit (despite costing France a fortune in aid, especially to farmers).

She has scared the political elite a lot more than Farage did here, so they are tweaking their policies to seem more "Pro-French" and anti- immigration.

But a lot of the electorate don't believe their promises.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

I've updated the thread so it can be a catch all for European Elections in 2017

Tonight is the election in Holland. Geert Wilders is predicted to do well in another victory for the far-right or populist right, whatever you want to call it, but no one expects him to win enough seats to form a government due to their electoral system and that no one will partner with him.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bc14dee-...1-5e720a26771b

Results tonight. As I said all eyes internationally are directed at Wilders.....

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Is that 'riding a wave' or are you quoting Jonathan Woss? :D

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First exit poll suggests the polls overestimated Wilders support.....

https://twitter.com/AP/status/842105421053755410

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Fillon has had another bad day:

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...ng-canard-says

He accepted money to arrange a meeting between Putin and the CEO of Total. People were already wary of his links to Russia.

Also Le Monde is reporting he may have forged documents to try and prove his wife worked for him.

Meanwhile the French Interior Minister has resigned after it emerged he employed his daughters as assistants. Doesn't look good that he considers that a resigning offence whilst Fillon, whose wife didn't actually work for him, doesn't.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Marcon wins the first round, Le Pen in 2nd. They go to the run-off. Le Pen didn't get as close as expected, at the start of this she was even looking at finishing 1st, but once again the National Front are in the last round.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

I think she'll win the next round with ease.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Let's hope so

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Yes, then we can have Frexit!

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Exactly

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frexactly ;)

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We'll see. Most polls have Macron winning by a comfortable margin.

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And we know how relaible they are. ;)

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brexactly

these polls are rubbish and propaganda .

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Well the French ones nailed the 1st round almost exactly.

Obviously things can change. I imagine Wikileaks will somehow come by a lot of damaging information on Macron etc. Still if Le Pen wins it will be a far bigger polling miss than Trump and Brexit - both of which were only a few percent off of their polling averages and not 30% off.

I've been wrong before of course but there we are.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Isn't French for exit "sortie" so it would be Frsortie - doesn't really scan.

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if one of them offers 4 more bank holidays that'll be the clincher :)

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Look how pathetic the EU came out backing Macron. You know it's a corrupt system, in which all French banks have refused to loan Le Pen money for her campaign, but happily loaning it to the other candidates. Cannot call that a fair democracy.

However, Le Pen is said not mind the EU backing Macron, says it will help boost her message and help her in the long run.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

No Left candidate in the 2nd round, that's going to scare a large number or lefties that voted Le Pen in round 1 as a protest against immigration (hoping at least some would vote for the Left for their candidates to enter the second round).

French radio and TV is full of shocked commentators saying it is "the end of France as we know it".

Re: European Elections 2017
 

not all bad then ;)

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Macron being backed by the EU and the banks does make him the "establishment" candidate. Could well work to his disadvantage in these anti-establishment times.

I wouldn't mind betting that a lot of French people will say they don't back Le Pen to the pollsters but will hold their noses and put their cross down for her.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Banks aren't obliged to give loans to parties. I am guessing they thought it would be a negative image. She is the leader of the National Front after all, our equivalent of the BNP. They're right of UKIP.

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She is not racist. She just wants controlled borders and out of the corrupt EU. No worries, appears she has got help from outside of France and no, that does not mean Putin.

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more likely they sought to stifle democracy by starving the party of funds .

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So, a banker forms his own pro EU party and the banks won't back any opposition.

Which image is negative?

Re: European Elections 2017
 

She has done a lot to get away from the toxic brand of her father. But many still label her racist/xenophobe/nazi as soon as she opens her mouth. Liberal progressives mostly, trying to stifle debate because it's not what they want, or want to hear, or what they think is best for us.

Ditto in the UK where any mention of UKIP is tantamount to declaring support for the BNP/EDL cretins in the liberals' eyes.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Unfortunately the Liberal luvvies have the biggest gobs and hate it if things don't go their way.

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Weren't they Russian banks?

I am not sure about Macron's funding but the banks did also lend to other candidates. Just not Le Pen because they're the National Front. Also bankers are a pretty broad group, they don't all have a secret club they all join.

Well also because it's the same party. Don't quite buy it's radically changed because the leader changed from the father to the daughter. She has moderated her tone but many will remain wary. I don't think if the BNP did the same people would trust them.

Also UKIP is not analogous to the NF. UKIP are more moderate.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

They were tarred with the same brush initially though.

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Indeed, from Russia with love as they say.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/322933...r-own-account/

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Consider this, there's a political party which aims to upset the establishment elite.

They apply for funds from the banks (establishment elite) and find they can't get them.

Where do you expect them to go?

Wake up Andrew. Russian money is being invested throughout the world.

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Yeah but Russia isn't helping the NF because it will make France a better country, it's no coincidence she is anti-NATO.

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How much Russian money funds projects in the UK?

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Why do I need to wake up? I just posted a link that supported Damien's statement concerning Russian funding.
Commercial banks are concerned with two things when they lend money:
1) Financial risk - will they get it back? (If they don't it reduces their profits.)
2) Reputational risk - will the bank's reputation be damaged (which could result in a loss of business from other customers and therefore a reduction in profits.)
Similarly, a political party that borrows from a bank based in a country like Russia needs to think about the reputational damage caused to the party by such a loan.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

1) More than likely as NT recieved £5m from elsewhere (not Russia).

2) Reputational risk was lost a few years ago leading to Countries throught the western world having to suffer from austerity programs from their respective Governments. Think for a minute, where did the money go? It didn't disappear, it ended up in someone's pocket.

Russia perhaps?

Re: European Elections 2017
 

What money went where? Governments were faced with less tax revenue as a result of the global financial crisis so reduced expenditure accordingly. In the case of the UK, the Government sought to reduce borrowings by reducing spending as well.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Are you for real???

Why did the Government need to spend Billions bailing out banks?

The banks had the money, invested it in dodgy deals and lost it. The money existed to begin with so where's it gone?

Because of the bailouts the Government then had to reduce spending as it no longer had the money as they'd spent it.

Whichever way you look at it someone ended up with the money.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

The money didn't exist in the first place. A lot of it were mortgages that weren't worth that they were labeled as being worth. Money can disappear if the value of something declines, it's not all backed by hard currency.

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Charming!
Banks lend more money than they have deposits for. They depend on people not asking for it back at the same time, otherwise the bank collapses. They lend a multiple of their deposits.
Where did the money go? Partly the US housing crash. People in the US were persuaded to buy houses they couldn't afford to buy. They couldn't keep up the repayments and those houses were repossessed and sold for a fraction of what they bought them for or left to decay.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

So the money never existed but the Government propped up the banks because they'd lost the money that never existed anyway.

You on cookooland Damien?

Consider this. I have a property you want to buy so you get a mortgage for it, contracts are exchanged and I am paid by whoever you organised the mortgage with.

Just because you don't see the money doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Money cannot "disappear" it may become less valuable but it still exists somewhere.

Like it or not, someone somewhere made billions out of the sub prime market and stitched up the banks. We have had to pay for it though as usual.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

You buy a car. Sell it a year later and it will have lost thousands. Money disappears.
Yes, those house builders, realtors, mortgage-lenders in the US rust belt and elsewhere did rather well. How well they will do in the long-term is another matter.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Wrong analogy.

I buy a car, having used it the value of it is less and rightly so, it's not worth the same as a new one. The point is it was paid for so the money changed hands in the beginning so someone had it.

Unless they bought another car they still have it.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Maybe we should tell the EU that the £60bn they reckon we owe them doesn't exist... ;)

Re: European Elections 2017
 

It was not an analogy. Here's a different situation.
You buy a car for £10k and don't use it for a year. You sell it for £8k. It will still have lost £2k.

---------- Post added at 17:31 ---------- Previous post was at 17:29 ----------

I've heard that May is happy to settle for £30bn.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

It's still second hand (classed as used).

This is getting way off topic now so I'll end there.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Agreed. My point remains that money can disappear.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

And appear by magic.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money

Re: European Elections 2017
 

abrakerching

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Le Pen has stepped down as leader of the National Front to run as an independent.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Wow, interesting move!

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"temporarily...."


(until after the vote)

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Very weird.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

now people can vote for her with a clear consience

this sounds familiar [ project fear ]

Francois Hollande warns France against voting for Marine Le Pen
The French President says prices will soar, jobs will be lost and the country will be divided if Marine Le Pen is chosen to lead.

http://news.sky.com/story/francois-h...e-pen-10849651

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Not sure people will buy this only two weeks from the election

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Marine le Pen has quit as party leader. A bit late to try this kind of thing. But hey............

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Lots of French citizens would say France is already there thanks to him. Hollande is a EU loving nerd, total prick, thats why he has not sought for reelection, because he would not have stood a chance, least popular French President for a long time.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

At almost any time in his Presidency, it was obvious to all that he only got the position because of the Party he headed. But that Party has totally fallen out of favour, hence no chance of entering the second round of the election.

Whilst in the UK, many Labour supporters are liable not to vote Labour just because Corbyn is at its head. Whilst many will vote for the Tories because a woman is in charge.

Politics is being rewritten in many countries at this time.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Perhaps unfortunately for this side of the channel, Macron is likely to be a premier of world significance if intellect translates into performance in leadership (and assuming he is elected). Our politicians are going to have to be at the very top of their game imho.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Or maybe he just says and does what his M̶a̶m̶a̶n̶ wife says? :dunce:

Re: European Elections 2017
 

thought he was giving his nan a day out ;)

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Hrhrhr! I'm saying nothing...I used to look forward to french lessons at school; our teacher was mid-twenties and very ooh la la.

It's a wonder I can still see.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Obama sticking his nose in elections again endorsing Macron candidate in French Elections. Wonder if he billed Macron $400,000 later on. :rolleyes:

But can it be third time unlucky? Call it the Obama curse, given he went for Remain in Brexit Referendum and Hillary Clinton in U.S Elections.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

I always thought Obama would turn out to be the US's Blair....

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Quelle Surprise....

Macron's e-mails and other documents have been hacked and leaked online: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-fr...-idUSKBN1812AZ

Just ahead of the election.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

what does it matter if he's squeaky clean

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Because no one is 'squeaky clean' - there is always something, no matter how minor, that can be blown up out of all proportion...

The timing is the thing - whoever released this has had the info a while, but are releasing it to affect the election; that's damaging to democracy (unless they did it to all sides, but that, strangely, never seems to happen...).

Re: European Elections 2017
 

i read that real emails are mixed with fake . fake? that's a great get out if something is uncovered .

Re: European Elections 2017
 

They said it might be fake. With the election today and the campaigns forbidden from political communication there isn't enough time or coverage to be able to vet the documents. Instead the internet and social media can go wild with rumours. Already there are a large amount of seemingly new twitter accounts with frogs for avatars that are making all sorts of claims about what is in there.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Sorry Hugh, although I agree no one is entirely squeaky clean they could handle leaks/hacks like this better.

At present the reaction to this is to go immediately on the defensive which has a negative effect. It gives people the the opinion that they have something to hide.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

So what.
1) There would be no guarantee it would work
2) there would be no guarantee of finding anything.
3) It would take time to find anything
4) It is too late for the French press to report on it anyway.

Any attempt would have had to be made long before now.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

I think the impact of it being released now is that they've entered a period where the Macron team can't really respond and the press can't verify the release. Instead it's been disseminated largely on social networks such as Twitter and Facebook where they're most likely to have an impact and where they can spread unchallenged. If you look on Twitter it's just a barrage of it. It appears he has done very crime imaginable and confessed it via e-mail to campaign staff for some reason. :rolleyes:

I doubt it's going to have a big effect but is this the new normal? One-sided hacking attempts against whomever the centrist / anti-Russian / pro-NATO candidate is?

Re: European Elections 2017
 

That's certainly my concern and it's why I'm keen that the Republican establishment stops standing in the way of the investigations in the US.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

So how many French voters are looking out for whatever is supposed to be out there? Millions?:rolleyes:

Re: European Elections 2017
 

It just needs to be enough to swing the vote - Trump won by 10,704 in Michigan, 22,177 in Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by 49,000, which were in total worth 46 Electoral College votes.

So under just over 82,000 votes can change the result of an election - you don't need millions.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

That assumes that otherwise they would have been level pegging.

Given the difference in the polls, the impact would need to be several million votes.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

The way I've read it, Damien doesn't seem to be talking millions but more about the principle of hacking occurring against the candidates least favoured by Russia.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

But why bother unless you can be sure of having any necessary impact?

Re: European Elections 2017
 

1. What's the downside? Very little. What's the upside? Potentially high.
2. The polls may be wrong. If you could have influenced an election but didn't you might regret it.
3. Increase your knowledge of the dark arts of news management. Is it better to mix genuine content with fake news? Which bloggers are best to tip off?

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Pretty cool.

Macron's team knew they would be, and were, the target of hackers after what happened in the States and intentionally clicked pishing e-mails only to insert rubbish credentials and data. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...mpaign-hackers

This is how the Macron team were so quick to know some of the data was fake, they put it there.

---------- Post added at 16:27 ---------- Previous post was at 14:37 ----------

Turn out is at 'historic lows' which bodes well for Le Pen.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Landslide for Macron.

65% to 35%. Bigger margin than the poll suggested.

If that is the final result it means the poll was off more than it was for Brexit and more than Trump.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

They are saying turnout is low, around 65%, lower than last election.

Still, Le Pen, beat her Father's attempt back in 2002, not just beat it but doubled it.

Hollande should have just re-ran, if all the French wanted was another EU puppet.

It's been on the news, Macron has already had a cosy warm chat with Angela Merkel. :sick:

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Le Pen might not be able to hold onto the leadership of the NF now, she was expected to do better and people in the party were not happy with her attempts to revamp the party.

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Credit to the outsider who only set up his party 13 months ago. He'll be no walkover for the EU. As Kursk has said, he is a skilled negotiator.

---------- Post added at 21:43 ---------- Previous post was at 21:42 ----------

Has she rejoined the Party then?

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Final tally 66% to 34%.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

At least one country isn't bonkers.

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in addition to the low turnout 11% of ballot papers were spoiled or left blank.

It is clear that Macron is the leader by default and not by choice.

He was simply the least worst choice.

Not really stimulating.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

I think it's more often the case than not. If you're electing one person to run the country that person will have had to make a number of compromises to accommodate the electorate.

That said Macron did win the first round too. At least that percent of his support was not with him because he wasn't Le Pen.

Re: European Elections 2017
 

He also walked out on stage during Europe Anthem, rather than French Anthem, that would not have gone down well with many in France.

---------- Post added at 09:18 ---------- Previous post was at 09:15 ----------

:zzz:

Go move there then instead of moaning. Let those of us here who do not want to be associated with corruption, be the ones who are far from bonkers who want to save our country from a bunch of pricks. :rolleyes:

Re: European Elections 2017
 

Interestingly, according to exit polls, Macron scored highest amongst people older than 70, followed by young people. It's the middle aged who voted most for Le Pen. So Le Pen scored lowest with young idealists and people who actually remember what a right wing/Nazi France was like.

Source - http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/fi...ai_20h15_0.pdf

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He has made no secret of his pro-EU stance. Campaigning with EU flags behind him for example.

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This..

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He was the least worst choice by a long way !

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NF always struggled with anyone who was around in WW2 and the Vichy regime.

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It wasn't long ago that some Brexiters were predicting the Netherlands and France would elect pro-leave candidates and the EU would be finished!

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Yes I sense some of the Brexit brigade are gutted by this result. It ain't going to make it easy for May. He's pro EU and on record as saying that the UK shouldn't be allowed to have the best of both worlds, not the best of signs.