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General Election 2015: Voting intentions & general discussion
Please continue all discussion about the election campaign in this thread.
There is a new opinion poll at the top. With one week to go, I will close this thread and publish a new one, with a new poll. Finally, on election day, another new thread will carry an exit poll so we can see how the parliamentary constituency of Cable Forum Central has voted. :D |
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Labour are campaigning very well on the ground: http://www.economist.com/news/britai...c/on_the_march
But are the polls wrong: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/ind...-simply-wrong/ |
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I'm inclined to think the polls have completely broken down.
We simply don't have the experience or background data to be able to assess what's going to happen in this election robustly. This is all pretty new stuff, it'll take a while for there to be enough data to produce sound predictions. EDIT: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...n-predictions/ Just look at how wide the 90% confidence range is. |
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I still think a lot of people will put a peg on their noses and vote for a continuation of current policies, especially those who are now in a job that weren't before. Never let go of nurse for fear of finding something worse.:D |
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I've seen very polarised opinions locally.
If you are pro-Con, you are a snobby twit. If you are pro-Lab, you are a benefit-chasing layabout. If you are pro-Lib, you are as daft as you look. If you are pro-UKIP, you are racist ****. If you are pro-Green, you are loony treehugger. If you are pro-Plaid, you are a language nazi. I've seen old mates roaring at each other about their respective political leanings. |
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From the previous thread
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Funny though that all the people I know with racist tendancies are traditional "grass-roots" Tories! |
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The BBC commissioned ICM and didn't know the details or just refused to confirm them? Has ICM come up with any answers? Does ICM always get the job? Maybe the perceived 'bias' was due to all the Tory supporters in the audience having nothing to cheer about because DC stayed well clear... ;) Just found this in the Mail: Quote:
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The problem with UKIP's claims is that if it is done by a poll that reflects the make up of the British population is that UKIP are only at 15%. That's a small amount of the audience. It also depends if they included Tories or did it as a make up of the parties in the debate. If the Tories were included then you would imagine they're more receptive to Farage which does raise questions about how they made them up. Although it could just be that the left was more vocal.
Let's remember that it suits Farage to say what he did and to attack the audience. I suspect he planned that moment. His appeal to his base is that he is the lone voice of their concerns railing against the liberal establishment of the BBC, Westminster, the Press and pretty much everyone else. The same way the SNP did during the referendum. He is the positioning himself as the enemy of the establishment and he needs a bit of theatre to make that point clear and an establishment to attack. The debate suited him perfectly. |
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@ MediaBoy - If you're not voting in the election you can't vote here. ;)
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My own view is
-Labour and Liberal Democrat is all part of the Conservative family. -UKIP (They are on something and it not beer). -The rest (Ok for local Elections) |
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Normally would vote Tories, but like the look of the English Democrats party standing in Stevenage. Agree with a lot of their policies. Like I said another time, shame we cannot mix and match policies from all the Parties.
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Just heard Martha Kerney taking Stuart Hosie (SNP) apart on WATO. Very entertaining.
They reply don't like being reminded that education and health spending in Scotland has grown more slowly than it has in England since 2007. :D |
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They don't like being reminded of the oil price and just how far in the mire they'd now be if they'd won the referendum either. Can't think why...
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Are the Tory's proposing to cut 2000 Nurses from the NHS!
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The Tories are proposing to increase NHS spending by £8 billion over the next 5 years. It's hard to see how they would be looking for those kinds of staffing cuts at the same time.
Where have you heard that particular rumour? |
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If the Scots are that interested in the welfare of England, perhaps the outdated and flawed Barnett formula should be scrapped.
What is wrong with basing funding the same way as done with the English counties? That still factors various things in related to needs. Of course that would leave the Scots will one or two billion less to spend. |
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The Daily Mirror. |
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Tories still ahead of Labour in latest Guardian/ICM poll.
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Let's see: Ed "Two kitchens" promises thousands of nurses but only £2.5m a year. DC promises £8m a year but you believe there'll be nurse number cuts under a Tory government because the Mirror says so. :confused: |
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l think we have to take what most newspapers say with a pinch of salt and form our own opinion and views based on thought out rational thinking.
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Whilst I buy a popular red-top (mostly for its entertainment value) and sometimes quote from it doesn't mean I swallow its editorial stance without question. After all it was full gung-ho when Hague wanted to bash Syria and I was completely opposed to that. |
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I continue to be amazed by those who keep saying the NHS is not safe with the Tories when it was Labour who oversaw Mid Staffs and tried to surpress the information. It was Labour who 're-negotiated' the doctor's contracts without thinking about the patients, resulting in the A&E crisis because patients can no longer get surgery appointments when they need them. It was Labour who went for the PFI initiative which has crippled hospitals with ridiculous maintenance payments (have you seen what they charge to change a light bulb?). It was Labour who said David Cameron's proposal to increase spending on the NHS was 'irresponsible' at the beginning of this Parliament. Whereas, David Cameron is still committed to putting in £8 billion to the NHS, far exceeding anything that Labour is proposing, he has taken out a whole layer of bureaucracy that was the Primary Care Trusts and put it into doctors and nurses and when things go wrong at a local level, it gets addressed rather than swept under the carpet. He is pledging 7 day opening of surgeries. That will reduce A&E waiting times substantially. And yet you cannot shake people from this old fashioned and no longer relevant belief that the NHS is safer with Labour. What tosh! If Labour get back, I can't think how the hospitals will deteriorate under them. I'm guessing that drinking water out of vases might be the least of the controversies! Will they still be able to afford vases under Labour? They will be drinking out of toilets if the vases disappear. I know who I trust, and it ain't Labour, who have run out of ideas and the ability to care. All they seem to worry about is tick boxes and increasing bureaucracy when they should be concentrating on improving medical services for people. |
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Labour under their present leadership are economically illiterate and really don't have a clue because they just don't know how to manage an economy efficiently. They say they will take longer paying off the deficit, which means the debt we have to pay back will increase substantially, so there will be no money to make things better under their stewardship. The current Labour leadership is shameful and the sooner they get their acts together to be able to promise people genuinely better public services, the better. They have a long way to go. |
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So that made him working class, eh? Pathetic. |
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He's as out of touch and as working class as any 'Tory Toff'. |
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It seems rather disingenuous. |
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I dare say that Cameron would not even think of making this pledge if he didn't mean it. It does depend on the Conservatives getting a majority, though. Another coalition will only dilute everything as happened in the current parliament. |
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:D |
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http://www.justbookies.com/election-odds/ Most seats - Conservatives 4/9, Labour 7/4 No overall majority 1/8 to 1/10 Conservative majority 6/1 to 15/2 Labour majority 16/1 to 40/1 |
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My hunch still is that there is going to be a awful lot of horse trading once the election results are in and what might happen from that is anybody's guess as it looks like the Conservatives will win a handful more seats then Labour but not enough to form a cohesive government unless they go into another coalition.
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There is only one real choice here. Do you want our country to continue on the road back to prosperity or do you want it destroyed? I don't think people should be voting on old party lines. When push comes to shove at the ballot box, I think many Labour supporters will breathe in hard and vote Tory this time. It will then be up to Cameron not to let them down, and to continue to support the NHS while making sensible decisions on spending and investing money. This nasty class war attitude needs to be put to bed once and for all. |
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We're still drawing with no one moving ahead. The issue for the Tories is that it is much harder to see how they form a Government than it is for Labour considering the SNP seats. |
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Well a comprehensive poll undertaken by a renowned and eminently fair organisation currently has UKIP well ahead of the rest on 35% of the vote. :D
I imagine that, come the day, the very worrying prospect of a Labour/SNP dark alliance will focus a few minds amongst those in England who don't like the tail wagging the dog and worry about life's little economic realities. |
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Having said that 10 billion is quite easy to find over 5 yrs with a good economy |
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Scotland is part of the United Kingdom and we recently had a campaign where most of the rest of the country was telling them to stay. To then talk about how dangerous the party is that they are seeking to elect would be easily interpreted by Scots as a slant against them and their right to vote for Westminster Governments. I know we're all talking about the SNP but that's not how it will be spun. For the Tories it makes sense. It drives voters towards them in England and it drives voters towards the SNP in Scotland (the Tories can't win those seats anyway). However they seem to be willing to risk the Union for a few more votes. |
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I reckon a lot of the over 500,000 voters who are affected by the Bedroom Tax will be voting Labour. they'd be mad not to.
it would be funny if most of them voted Conservatives last year. |
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Just think. it could be Daves victims that are Dave's downfall. when I went past the local jobcentre today there were a load of Labour campaigners rallying up support :) |
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The SNP are nationalists and they'll never give up plotting for Scottish Independence. They're playing to do this already. This is why Sturgeon has been pushing so hard to get Miliband to commit to an agreement because she knows it hurts Labour in England as well as Scotland. Whoever wins needs to take them very seriously. We need to take the wind out of their sails. We could devolve power to more regions, including Scottish ones, so that a degree of power bypasses Holyrood. If Labour win they should offer a coalition deal with many things that appeal to Scotland but make it clear this is a coalition deal. Hitch the SNP up to central Government or let them vote not to and miss out on the benefits for Scotland. That way they can't portray themselves as the outsiders to the Westminster establishment sticking up for Scotland. Either they're part of it or it's clear they value politics over Scotland. |
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Voted Tory :tu: :)
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:D |
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I'm going to vote Labour. :erm:
It's Operation Keep The Nats Out up here, and I have to help shore up the Labour vote as they have the sitting MP in my constituency. I feel dirty. |
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I am going to vote Liberal Democrat. Mine is a safe Tory seat anyway so no need for tactical voting, I might as well go for the party I like best. I am at the point where I don't really care who the main party is as long as a coalition can be formed and we avoid 5 years of a minority Government propped up by fringe parties. I would prefer the current Government really (Tory-Liberal) but I think a Labour-Liberal one would also be ok and would probably mean voting reform.
To be honest I find the differences between the two largest parties rather minor in comparison to the idea of the chaos and possible breaking of the Union which seems to be on the agenda for the next 5 years. ---------- Post added at 21:56 ---------- Previous post was at 21:24 ---------- Quote:
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It's at the bottom of the vulnerable list, but the sitting MP is retiring. The loss of an incumbent makes it that bit more risky.
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One interesting thing that Ashcroft's polls have found is that Labour have had better contact rates than the SNP. Murphy is hopefully mobilising a better, more active, party who'll prove useful in the event of another referendum vote. Shame Ruth Davidson is at the helm of a shell of a party being undermined by the UK Tories. She was easily the best in the Scottish Leader debates. |
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The problem with the unionist vote in this context is that it is split. The SNP has been very good at hanging on to Yes voters from last September, and 45% is frequently good enough to take a Westminster seat. Our best hope right now is. That the uniform swing calculations being made, are not up to the task, and that the Nats do less well than predicted.
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There was some debate about having staff on until midnight tonight too. Still got 30 mins to get online and register!! Cheers Grim |
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So received mailings from Labour, Conservatives and UKIP. The UKIP one had some laughable mistakes with its English, the Conservative one errored too. Presumably the Tory campaign got a bit excited over austerity and cut their proof-reader. There was an error in the Labour one too. No idea when basic English became so difficult :( Labour will win in this seat though, no question. UKIP will probably come second. |
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I still can't believe how many people seem to be planning on voting for UKIP, after the nonsense that they stand for and all the rubbish they have said at the debates. Racist, bigoted and xenophobic group of muppets.
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I might risk a EU protest vote on UKIP, but afraid of ... "vote Farage, get Miliband" - now if we'd got transferable vote, it would have been easy .. UKIP + Conservative.
Labour = not a chance in hell of a referendum Conservative = promise of referendum (though we know what promises are worth) LibDem = will probably hold Con back from referendum, or sabotage it. I want my say on Europe - and as I see it, what we gain is not worth the price, so either we have a serious change in our one-sided relationship with the EU, or we should be prepared to leave, and since some things that do need changing appear to be non-negotiable (at least until the realistic threat of a net contributor leaving!), there may be no way to get the relationship we need. Certainly, if we are to renegotiate with the EU, we must hang the sword of Damocles over them! |
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Sky News had a bit on young voters yesterday and they were talking to them about why they're political disengaged. One guy said he might agree with some policies but not others and if voting for them he would be endorsing those policies he disagrees with and therefore has no one to vote for. The girl next time said it was all the fault of politicians why young people don't vote but then didn't expand the thought.
I swear that part of the reason for apathy is an inflated sense of entitlement that causes people to think that parties should be tailor made for them. |
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Sums up what you're saying pretty well. If it's to any extent true the apathy is about hiding from the big bad world inside comfortable groupthink. As no mainstream party adheres to that groupthink, in no small part because it's simply not the real world and no-one is entitled to be comfortable, apparent apathy reigns. |
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Our local Tory MP is running a "positive campaign" highlighting what he believes are his successes and what he wants to do if elected.
The others are much more negative. One party highlighted what they see as a failing but to me was a real positive. Just wondering how other areas are going in this sort of arena. I like positive campaigns. |
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I found this useful. This too.
It's also a great example of how, even across a relatively narrow collection of issues, no one party makes me feel entirely 'comfortable' though I am considerably closer to one of them than the others. However, life is full of compromises and very few live their lives a la carte, they usually come in a bundle. ---------- Post added at 11:46 ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 ---------- Quote:
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Just listening to Andrew Neil asking Labour spokesman Jamie Reid about their plans for NHS spending and the mansion tax - the revenue stream they're basing so many plans upon. I recommend everyone to check it out on iPlayer and see for themselves. Mr Reid refused to answer numerous legitimate questions about the 'tax' and which independent experts had given the advice that it would raise £1.2bn pa, simply repeating the same statements again and again. It's this sort of thing which turns so many people off IMHO. If they're going to carry on assuming the high ground they should at least live up to it. The interview starts at 12.19 or thereabouts. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bb...windTo=current |
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And again, when the current Government took over from Brown, we all know there was no money left. The reality is that to have a successful Government delivering socialist policies, you need a good economy, which means not driving away the rich. Labour and the Scottish Nationalists will never learn! |
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UKIP candidate sparks outrage by 'calling for compulsory abortion of any foetus with Down's syndrome or spina bifida'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...na-bifida.html what a **** nasty party how can anyone vote from them |
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like they're not really on their side. and wait for an opportune moment to come out with these one liners. |
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The calamity of the early 90s was entirely caused by our disastrous entry and inevitable exit from the ERM, whose only saving grace has been that it has made it politically impossible for us to be dragged into the Euro, despite Tony Blair's insane desire to do just that. IIRC, on the question of the single currency, Major's preference was for a parallel currency, based on the notional European Currency Unit, what he called the "hard ECU". Exactly how involved he was in pushing us into ERM I don't know; I think it is generally accepted, however, that the Prime Minister at the time, Margaret Thatcher, was not in favour, but was at the end of her tenure and no longer able to resist the pressure from Europhiles in her cabinet. |
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Bloody hell - if Major's Tories left the economy in a mess how many times worse was what Brown left behind after all that 'prudence' and 'oversight' he rammed down our throats at every opportunity? I'm afraid anyone who equates the two scenarios is living in cloud cuckoo land. Some folks do like to try to rewrite history but fortunately there are some here who aren't going to let that happen... ---------- Post added at 13:54 ---------- Previous post was at 13:51 ---------- Quote:
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I always thought J Major was bland, boring man - then there was the Edwina affair, naughty John!
Then there was Ted Heath's short reign. There is a strange coincidence whenever the Tory Knobs are in power ....RIOTS... |
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When Labour are in opposition, their client groups and hangers-on are prone to taking to the streets. There's nothing like a good old Trotskyite mass strike for breathing new life into a democracy, eh? Or wasters and dole scroungers chucking their house brick sized sense of entitlement through the window of the nearest Currys. |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Birmingham_riots http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Oldham_riots http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Bradford_riots http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Harehills_riot http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_na...rthern_Ireland http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_UEFA_Cup_Final_riots |
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where do these reporters drag these stories up from whenever an election is looming |
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The stalemate of the opinion polls continues.
http://news.channel4.com/election201...1/update-3487/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...test-poll.html |
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I've never met a waster or a dole scrounger who was also an avowed Tory, put it that way.
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Dyed in the wool Labour supporters often have a very tenuous grasp on reality - which is why they tend to make stuff up... |
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That is why Boris has bought some water canon EXPECTING TROUBLE is he?
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Or perhaps you think we should only train and equip riot police after it kicks off? Call them in, kit them out and give them a few quick pointers before sending them out to face the crusties? |
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Yes well you really wouldn't expect such foresight from Labour would you. They couldn't even see the biggest bust in decades coming right at them FGS. Useless bunch of self serving cretins.
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Looks like the SNP-Labour angle from the Tories is going to win them a lot of seats. YouGov pull will finally show them moving ahead. I think they've sold out the Union for 5 more years of power.
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i prefer this dm story Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Ed's Newsnight TV grilling on jobs, crime and fees where he repeatedly refused to admit he was incorrect about effects of Tory policy Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz3XyaNWbxP Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook |
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...-done-for.html ---------- Post added at 22:07 ---------- Previous post was at 22:05 ---------- Quote:
One of the reasons I'm thinking of voting tory is from what little electioneering I've seen they have been positive. I don't want to hear what the other mob will do in their opinion I want to hear what they are going to do |
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I'm shocked by this.
Ever since his astounding success in charge of housing I've always had Grant Shapps down as a genuinely stand-up guy. ---------- Post added at 23:27 ---------- Previous post was at 23:25 ---------- Quote:
The Labour leaflet is entirely positive. However, those are the joys of incumbency. When you have a good record in a constituency to defend you can be positive. When you are fighting against a good local MP you have to attack on the national level. ---------- Post added at 23:29 ---------- Previous post was at 23:27 ---------- Quote:
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Conservatives still well short of an overall majority.
http://news.sky.com/story/1469737/to...our-poll-shows |
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