IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ecognition-ifs

Gulp ... :shocked:

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

I think we're in for that whoever is in power. I'd just prefer it wasn't forced upon us by others as a result of reckless decisions and mismanagement of the economy.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Comments by Robert Peston:

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

It wouldn't have been. For all the rhetoric our borrowing is very, very cheap right now and our debt has been far higher.

Unfunded obligations on the other hand... aren't really going to get touched.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

It's interesting to see how the IFS and OBR are painting the real picture here.

What very few people have picked up on - aside from perhaps the IFS - is the fact that the EFO (Economic and Fiscal Oultook) report from the OBR (Office for Budgetary Responsibility) which Osborne relied upon and used selectively in his Autumn Statement contained the following statement;

"During the week before publication we produced our final forecast, incorporating the third quarter GDP data released by the ONS on 26 November and the final package of policy measures. We were provided with final details of most major policy decisions with a potential impact on the economy forecast on 25 November.
These were incorporated into our final economy forecast. On 28 November, we were provided Economic and fiscal outlook with details of changes to spending plans in 2015 - 16 – and the Treasury’s assumption for total spending growth from 2016-17 onwards – that would have had an effect on our economy forecast had they been provided in time. This has meant that in this EFO unfortunately our economy and fiscal forecasts are not fully consistent."

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

By the time this is done we'll have a smaller state as a proportion of GDP than the USA.

With the added bonus that we have ubiquitous health care free at the point of delivery.

Well, for now.

The rhetoric over Labour's profligacy is ridiculous given their biggest spending increase was the NHS, they doubled spending on it in real terms, and the government is promising to protect that spending.

EDIT: Incidentally I think not wanting to pass huge debts onto the next generation is laudable, however cuts of this scale are likewise potentially breaking the social contract.

EDIT2: Think I'll be going to Costco to check out CCTV systems, and testing the home alarm.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

So our public sector spending, as a proportion of GDP, will be back to the Labour Government's spending levels in 2002 - I don't remember the world ending then.....

But at least we know we have well-defined plan for reducing the deficit from Labour, who will (apparently) create millions of well-paid jobs in the first parliament, thus raising tax revenues....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30417955

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

I wonder how this miracle is to be perfomed, seeing as they manifestly failed to do it in 13 years of power?

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Ah but this is Miliband's New New Labour, not Same Old Labour... :rolleyes:

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

I think you will find it's New Old Labour, not New New New Labour.... ;)

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

:D

Whatever they're called the result will be the same old...

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Setting aside the anti Blair / anti labour rhetoric soundbites I recall reading somewhere that in the Blair years of 1997 - 2007 there were almost three million jobs created and a 10%+ increase in employment throughout the UK.

Not too shabby by anyone's standards.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

2001-2 or 2002-3 Hugh?

In 2001-2 total managed expenditure was 37.19% of GDP, in 2002-3 it was 37.94%.

I make managed expenditure forecast in 2019-2020 to be 35.2% of GDP according to the Chancellor's plan.

Figures from the Autumn Statement in % of GDP:

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2014/12/8.png

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Oh contreau mon ami:

Most were low paid jobs taken by immigrants when the doors were thrown open. Hardly the high paid jobs that Ed Millibrain is referring to.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Strange that, for all these low paid jobs, the median wage in real terms was rising up until the financial crisis.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2014/12/7.png

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

I think we'll have to agree to differ on that one.

The city of London financial sector grew at a rate never before seen (not a bad paying job by anyone's standards) and public sector jobs increased by in excess of 800,000.

Labour also introduced the minimum wage - which is not without it's flaws.

Quite clearly they created several million jobs and took steps to ensure that people were paid at least a minimum rate for doing so.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

So if Labour are to take the credit for the Financial Sector creating so many well paid jobs, should they also take the responsibility for the problems caused by the growth, and subsequent crash, that came from the same sector? ;)

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

What do you think, Hugh?

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Be nice if someone took responsibility for it in reality responsibility lies with both main political parties as both of them were in favour of less financial oversight it was just labour in power that implemented it i remember many tories supporting it and some who didnt feel labour went far enough. Still never mind no one could have imagined how easy it would be to shift the blame for the global financial crisis away from the ones that caused the problem.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Absolutely they can take responsibility for what they did with the BoE and the light touch regulation they applied. Gordon Brown's changes to tax relief on pensions likewise.

It is great to see so many lessons learned and solutions implemented by the existing administration.

Yes that was sarcasm.

Whenever I compare them I always have to refer to this. I don't need to mention the various policies aimed at propping up house prices and encouraging increasing private debt. Osborne's forecasts rely on an unprecedented private debt expansion, because clearly what could go wrong with that?

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

What you mean take responsibility for the 'risk takers' they feted, doled out gongs to and failed to regulate effectively? Fat chance!

At least unravelling the extent of what was and has been going on is happening and huge fines are being levied on those institutions responsible for it. Brown was too busy spending all that tax revenue to be too bothered about where the money was coming from or listen to those insiders blowing their whistles.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...r-1622467.html

It seems he preferred to hear what this guy had to say:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Crosby_(banker)

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Except customers will be paying the fines, not banks.

People have committed fraud and the evidence proves it. They should be going to prison.

The coalition have utterly failed to fix the issues for much the same reasons as Labour did - they like the money too much.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Yes, this is quite the thing.

The banks are paying fines with money we gifted them to bail them out. It's ironic that people can't see this.

Ultimately we are paying the fines and those in the financial sector culpable for fraud and financial skulduggery get off scot free.

You'd need to be pretty stupid not to see it for what it is. I mean what other industry could get away with admitting they conned people and set aside a sum of money, which they themselves determine, to pay back?

On that matter. If PPI was an insurance scam (which it certainly seems to have been) how come it's the banks who are paying back the money and not the insurance companies who supposedly were paid it?

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

QFT.

Those in charge, if proven to be culpable, should be prosecuted.

Those who authorised PPI, and all the illegal financial actions, such as using CDO's to finance non-prime mortgages, should be prosecuted.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Quite. The biggest danger to our financial system is the complete lack of moral hazard.

Telling a multi-millionaire that because they broke the law they are only getting a £400k base salary instead of £400k plus a huge bonus isn't exactly the most effective threat.

Angry - some PPI fines are being paid by banks as they sold them or, more accurately, mis-sold them. Insurance companies merely hoovered up the revenue once the banks had blagged the customers to collect the commission / introductory fees.

Re: IFS: Osbourne's cuts force a "fundamental re-imagining of the state"
 

Shareholders too. In the case of some of the biggest banks you can add the taxpayer to the list since we own large chunks.

Looks like they might.