Putin warning...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30322198

From what I've heard on RT/Sputnik the west is to blame for everything and the tougher the sanctions, the more popular Putin becomes amongst his people who are of course quite used to hard times unlike their decadent western counterparts. I'm just wondering if we are in danger of pushing Putin too far and creating a kneejerk reaction which sets off a dangerous chain of events?

Re: Putin warning...
 

the commi midget is the problem he thinks he can bully every one into submission ,the soviet union is gone but he wont let go :(

Re: Putin warning...
 

Trouble is his people like him and the more we detest him the more popular he seems to become. He's also doing what Kirchner (and many others) has done from time to time and that is stirring up dangerous nationalistic sentiment at home in order to deflect attention from other issues.

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I was speaking on facebook to the Russian girlfriend of a friend of mine. She was saying the Russians don't understand why we westerners have a problem with him.

She was saying that there have been a lot of problems in Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and he has done a lot to solve them.

The trouble is Hitler was apparently viewed the same way by Germans. They had massive problems. He came in, apparently solved the problems and they loved him for it. The fact he was a genocidal maniac appeared to be beside the point.

I think the problems in Russia have been caused by a combination of organised crime and large corporations. Putin may well have been part of the problem as he owns several large corporations.

The thing that concerns me with Putin is that people form an opinion based on what they see, hear and read in the media. Putin owns a staggering amount of media. He may be using that media to control people's opinions. Russia Today is made by one of Putin's corporations and is sometimes held up as being independent from government control, as they've famously critcised putin in the past, but they've only critcised him a couple of times, and actually seem to fall into line with Putin's view generally.

Then there was the farce that was the Winter Olympics which, I am sorry to say, appeared only to have been staged to ensure mega profits for the Russian companies involved.

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I tend to agree and I think we in the west need to be fully cognisant of the danger inherent in this situation. Having said that, sitting back, doing nothing and allowing him to take liberties in former soviet States isn't going to do much for world stability either. As long as Putin is able to successfully blame the west for all Russia's ills, we're going to be in between a rock and a hard place. I'm certain Putin knows this and will exploit it to the full.

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Putin wants to be the next Stalin.

Look at what he said a week or so ago that he didn't think anything was wrong with the pact Russia made with Nazi Germany.

Did he suddenly have a memory lapse that the Russians were stabbed in the back by Nazi Germany? If it wasn't for the fact of such a harsh winter in which the Russians were used to Germany would have taken Moscow as they were only a few miles outside.

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the oil price has gone through the floor, couple with sanctions because of Ukraine.

Tough times are indeed ahead.

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Putin knows Germany is key to Russia's interests in the EU.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5bd0c36c-7...#axzz3KwOw5k4R

Re: Putin warning...
 

Ooo ... you broke the thread ... :D

Re: Putin warning...
 

US and OPEC duking it out over the price of crude and new drilling projects popping up all over the place in the US. Not quite what Vlad was banking on in fact it's hurting the Iranians as well since they have the highest break-even price in the OPEC membership.

War anyone?

Re: Putin warning...
 

Perfect storm brewing then?... :erm:

---------- Post added at 16:51 ---------- Previous post was at 16:37 ----------

(seasonal mode on) Oh no he didn't!!... ;)

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Horrible and flippant as it sounds we're probably overdue one given long-standing global tensions, and I suspect it's only nuclear weapons that have prevented it, perverse as that sounds.

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The attack wasn't the fault of the pact, that worked out very well for the soviets, increasing both their territory and spheres of influence. Make no mistake Vlad is a very smart, shrewd man who we would be very foolish to underestimate.

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Lol. Who would have thunk it? I proved Godwin's law on the fourth post.

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It's ironic that at a time when the internet ought to be the source of accurate information about events around the world, it's being used more and more to propagate dangerous propaganda by one side/group/faction or another. Who knows what's true anymore? It seems clear to me that many ordinary Russians believe what Putin tells them and that has to be a very dangerous situation. God only knows what he might do if he starts to believe his own publicity, emboldened by popular support.

---------- Post added at 11:15 ---------- Previous post was at 10:13 ----------

Found this interesting:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30340722

Re: Putin warning...
 

I think ordinary Russians don't care about the slide in the rouble, as long as they have bread, vodka and heat in winter. Putin's propaganda machine has kept him in power for so many years, he thinks he's invincible.

And that makes him very dangerous.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Another worrying thing for the future is the Chinese and Americans having a possible conflict in the South China seas.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-installations.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013.../phil-j29.html

May be old news!

Re: Putin warning...
 

China won't bully the big boys though. Look at the Paracel Island conflict in the 70's: Were the Americans not otherwise bogged down and pre-occupied fighting the VC I very much doubt that little episode would have happened.

Re: Putin warning...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30366947

Tough talking. Putin's response would be interesting if it weren't bound to be more of the same denial and rhetoric...

Re: Putin warning...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30490082

Reminds me of the sort of rates we were paying on our first mortgage.

Anyway, no doubt Putin will be making it quite clear to his people that this has nothing to do with his actions and is solely the result of an unwarranted attack by the west on the proud people of Russia...

Re: Putin warning...
 

His rhetoric will only go so far..

Re: Putin warning...
 

Then the cold war will start again. Nato better wake up and smell the coffee before its to late. To many libs demanding cut backs in the armed forces have made us weak and unable to defend ourselves if the needed.

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Yes and its Putin's perception of the west's capabilities and intentions which matters because that's what will determine his actions. He's a very dangerous individual and who knows to what extent his ego will rule his head.

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I don't think anyone wants a full-on conflict between Russia and NATO. There is absolutely no way it would stay conventional.

Putin will push as hard as he can without crossing the red lines of the NATO treaties.

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A sobering fact often not mentioned is that over 20m soviets died in WW2. Over twenty million. US and UK combined losses were under 1m. It is not only Russia's President that binds the Russian people.

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I don't think it's Russia we need to worry about if a war did break out, It's all the other crazy leaders out there that would take advantage of this by either joining putin or starting their own wars knowing resources would be going to battling Russia.

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Give all benefit scroungers a gun and we'll be ok.

just hope they don't shoot the workers though.

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Twenty million deaths. So about the expected immediate result of 2/3rds of the firepower a single Vanguard class submarine carries in peace time, this including effects of decoys and any anti-missile system the Russians have.

Hang that idea in front of anyone you'd hope things calm down before they get too extreme.

Putin is somewhat mad but not completely nuts. He knows that either side going too far results in a no-win for everyone.

Which is a comforting thought.

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And m.a.d. is what has kept us all alive thus far...

Perhaps one day Russia will become a member of NATO.

Imagine all the people, living life in peace. You may say I'm a dreamer.

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Wars don't have to be planned, they just require the right conditions and right now there's enough strife around the globe to set one off. Look back to WWI to see how things can escalate. Yes we now have nukes but it only requires one side or other to 'believe' they're under immediate threat to set off a chain reaction which is hard to stop. Unlikely it may be, but anyone who thinks we're too clever to blow ourselves up is overestimating our collective intelligence I feel.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Of course. Our ability to destroy things is well ahead of our maturity as a species.

There have been tons of suggestions of immediate threats that fortunately haven't escalated. Mercifully none of the nuclear powers, beyond perhaps North Korea, are cavalier about their power.

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Let's hope there are a few sensible Russians keeping a close eye on Putin and prepared to act if he lapses further. The last thing we need is another desperate maniac in Europe.

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Indeed just look what happens when you get a group of religious nutters together, If enough of one group believe they are at threat it will escalate in no time.

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That's what I was saying it's ok watching Russia but if we take the eye off the ball with all the other maniacs out there N korea as an example then who knows what will happen

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Therein lies a big problem - uncertain times can result in all sorts of unlikely alliances and acts of opportunism or desperation.

Re: Putin warning...
 

He's now desperately trying to reassure his followers (and those who don't like him) that the financial problems in Mother Russia will only last a couple of years. With all the money leaving the country for safe havens, he could face more than a couple of years of problems.

Re: Putin warning...
 

And as it all goes pear shaped you can bet his rhetoric will grow ever more aggressive towards the West. He'll need to distract the ordinary people from what's gone wrong and there's no better way than to point towards us.

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It makes no sense whatsoever to turn the screw on Russia. It is a country full of people not too different from ourselves and I hope that in the netherworld of global politics there is an alliance that cannot be made public. I'm sure there is.

Re: Putin warning...
 

maybe channel 4 can do the next SKINT in Moscow ;) following the proud members of a once oil and gas reliant economy .

Re: Putin warning...
 

Sneering at the poor, wherever they are, would not be my choice of viewing. Hopefully, Russia will join the EU, where the wealth of other nations can be shared to sustain it through difficult times.

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Nice thought but it isn't going to happen.

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But let's not give up on it. If Russia is pushed into a corner the possible outcome is unthinkable. If she is brought to her knees it would be a heinous crime.

At present, propaganda rules.

Re: Putin warning...
 

I am sure it will all be ok when he gets his military out of the Ukraine

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That would help greatly. He's been denying it all along and that hasn't helped - much of it has been ludicrous.

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The change that has taken place in the USSR/Russia in comparatively recent times is a thread of its own. Continued change is perhaps understandably viewed with suspicion.

Our economy is now intertwined with our former mortal enemy, Germany. If we can manage that, we should be able to achieve the same with Russia to our mutual benefit. And let's face it to the benefit of Europe.

There is no modern World alternative imho; patience is a virtue.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Russia has to do it's bit, too.....

Re: Putin warning...
 

Absolutely right. But we should stop twisting her arm imho.

Re: Putin warning...
 

So what do we do about Russian troops in Ukraine?

Re: Putin warning...
 

as far as i am aware Russia denies any troops are in Ukraine .

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Yes they do. Just like there were no coalition tanks in Baghdad... :D

If we can't trust what Putin says then there's very little chance of things getting any easier for Russia.

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he's costing a lot of rich people a lot of money his days are numbered

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Any left in Russia might suffer fatal "accidents" soon enough.

Re: Putin warning...
 

revenge of the radioactive brollygarch ;)

Re: Putin warning...
 

Yes, we should stop forcing Mother Russia to cut of gas supplies to Europe, stop twisting her arm to make her send troops and supplies into Ukraine, stop bullying her into annexing Crimea, and stop making her undertake three week long cyber-attacks on Estonia.....

Re: Putin warning...
 

I am denying i have a pimple on my bottom, that does not mean its true. ;)

Re: Putin warning...
 

I can think of one or two more countries who ought not to violate international agreements and standards; who ought not to invade sovereign territories; who ought not to sell arms to who knows who, or torture, or....oh forget it, the World is a complicated place.

Let him who is without <strike>sin</strike> a pimple cast the first stone.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Very, with all sorts of powerful and conflicting interests at work which is why there's never going to be the sort of peaceful and harmonious world order I'm sure we'd all like to see.

Re: Putin warning...
 

The world isn't fair.

Putin tried to play power games and at the moment it appears it's backfiring. Maybe he didn't have as strong a hand as he thought he did.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Well, that's one interpretation. Another might be that the President is not playing but acting in what he regards as the best interests of his country. I think he will have had a pretty good grasp of the likely repercussions but only a gambler would test the strength of his hand.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Maybe but that interpretation is rather weak. I fail to see how redrawing the European borders by invading another, democratic, sovereign country and making it your own is in the best interests of the Russian people. It seems more about appealing to a sense of lost national pride. If he was concerned about their best interests he would have spent the last 10 years diversifying the Russian economy rather than riding an oil boom.

He tested his hand himself by taking Crimea. He probably thought he could ride out Western sanctions due to oil but miscalculated how much he upset Saudi Arabia in his prior support for Assad and now vulnerable he left Russia open to a fall in oil prices.

Unfortunately for the rest of us when you invade, occupy and redraw the borders of a European country then you leave other European and Western Nations with no choice but to respond.

Re: Putin warning...
 

if he's playing political poker he should fold before he loses his shirt .

Re: Putin warning...
 

Regrettably he hasn't acted in what are the best interests of his country but in the best interests of a corrupt few.

He has destroyed Russia's manufacturing economy and left it totally dependent on natural resources for exports, and cannot even come close to matching some of the Arab states in terms of cost of production of oil.

Russia's infrastructure is a mess as it hasn't been invested in. It's very hard to do business there. It's rank with corruption and cronyism.

If he wants to act in the best interests of Russia he could do way worse than standing aside and allowing the country's economy and politics to properly liberalise. The economy is going to be in a worse state than it was during the immediate post-USSR period soon.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Of course times are difficult for Russia. Hence my suggestion that instead of isolating her, we work toward her membership of the EU. Perhaps even, joining with Ukraine and achieving unity under the European banner. That might satisfy all political agendas.

Anyone got any better ideas? A Cold War? The Stone Age anyone?

Re: Putin warning...
 

Except Russia/Putin doesn't do conciliation, just supremacy for Mother Russia/himself.

I have seen no hard evidence that he wants meaningful dialogue, just polemic and provocations against anyone who disagrees with him.

It takes two to tango....

I remember the same conversations in the 70s and 80s, when we were told the West was being provocative by supporting democratic movements in Czechoslovakia, Poland, etc.

Strange, I don't remember the West building a Wall across Europe (and through Berlin) to keep our citizens in.....

Re: Putin warning...
 

You and I have already agreed that.

Russia is a western country. If there was a wall, she would be on the same side of it as us and US ;).

Re: Putin warning...
 

Actually, 75% of Russia* lies within Asia.....

*to the east of the Ural Mountains.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Russia doesn't want that. The West has long wanted Russia to come in from the cold but they have only made small, hesitant, steps to do so before running away again under Putin. He is only ever confrontational towards the West and never seems to seek any meaningful dialogue or cooperation.

Re: Putin warning...
 

I wasn't referring to its geographical location :).

All significant change in human history has its time. This may be one such time as economics conspires to persuade.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Well, Putin might disagree with you, as he describe the end of the Soviet Union as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century", and he does appear to be trying to revive it with the EurAsian Union....

Re: Putin warning...
 

... and Ukraine now votes to drop its neutral status en route to Nato membership.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30587924

Maybe they think Putin's got enough on his plate to worry about and won't have the will to do anything about this.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Given Russia's flagrant violation of this I am not surprised.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Meantime back at the datcha...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30577375

Re: Putin warning...
 

That doesn't look to be a natural alliance to me. And do we not all mourn the fall of the British Empire? Change takes place at its own pace. Patience, as I said before in this thread, is a virtue.

Re: Putin warning...
 

I don't mourn the fall of the British Empire....

We have patience - but does Putin (who was raised, and served, during the height of the Soviet Empire).

Re: Putin warning...
 

You can take Putin out of the KGB but you can't take the KGB out of Putin.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15047823

Re: Putin warning...
 

Whichever way you look at it, President Putin is the consistently re-elected leader of Russia. Working with Russia means working with him. Deals are done all the time with leaders we might not 100% approve.

Talking of which, I hope Alex Salmond becomes the next Deputy PM. He's an astute politician who would run rings around the present incumbent.

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Of course you can be "constantly re-elected" if it's rigged....

Re: Putin warning...
 

Right now the west doesn't seem to want to work with him and I can't see that changing until his behaviour does.

Re: Putin warning...
 

We have to work with what we've got not what we'd like.

Re: Putin warning...
 

it worked for sadam for long enough :)

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And we've tried but he isn't interested. It's also not conductive to our relationship with them when he takes over part of a foreign country.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Do you work for Russia Today, perchance? ;)

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Sputnik's output really does betray an astonishing degree of pro Govt bias. It's laughable when compared to serious western media.

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I recall we were outraged when Soviet troops entered Afghanistan and the West funded the resistance. What happened after does not need repeating. Suffice to say, invasion of foreign countries is not restricted to Russia.

No :). I just believe in the maxim that you can't really understand another person's experience until you've walked a mile in their shoes. I'm not sure we think enough about how others might see things.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Considering the number of shirtless pictures of him I'd say he's already done that many times over, good job he has all those embezzled billions to buy replacements.

---------- Post added at 01:50 ---------- Previous post was at 01:48 ----------

It's a good maxim as not only do you end up a mile away from them, you've also got their shoes to

Re: Putin warning...
 

Ruble weakens on S&P warning of downgrading Russia

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0K20EG20141224

Re: Putin warning...
 

Actually, in a previous life, part of my job was to understand the Russian military and civilian psyche and behaviours, with a focus on how the Stalinist era and the WW2 shaped that (and I have kept that up as a civvy) - if we didn't try to understand how and why they would potentially do stuff, our analysis would be faulty/skewed.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Thunk! (That's the sound of Hugh playing his trump card...)



:D

Re: Putin warning...
 

My comment was intended in more general terms at the press manipulated British public and I include myself in that :dunce:. Since childhood, we've been fed this 'dangerous-Rusky-threat-they-want-to-nuke-us-all' rubbish. The (certainly modern day) Russians are not our enemy nor do we need to starve them back into the 1950's imho.


A curious comment from the normally informed and articulate contributor that you are. I doubt very much that Hugh feels our exchange in this thread has been some form of one-upmanship. Gawd.

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Neither do I. You didn't notice the :D then??


Just to explain further, it wasn't an entirely serious comment. ;)

Re: Putin warning...
 

My mistake then, sorry.

Re: Putin warning...
 

Graciously accepted. ;)

Re: Putin warning...
 

There we will have to disagree, as most of the people running today's Russia are of that Cold War era (as am I).

The Russia of the 50s-80s was driven by the tremendous losses they suffered in WW2 (a reasonable percentage at their own hands), and were willing to destroy everything rather than be 'conquered' again - unfortunately, quite a few in the West thought the same way (the MAD doctrine, the Air-Land War plan that involved nuking the Fulda Gap when all the Sov armour was driving through, etc.).

totally agree - we are having an informed, enjoyable, discussion/debate.

Re: Putin warning...
 

So, you see no alternative to continued sanctions even though you know who is at the helm and that there is impending crisis in Russia at least partially because of those sanctions?

And isn't it true that in the face of being conquered any country with the wherewithal, including our own, would choose annihilation?

Re: Putin warning...
 

People / Governments have tried to reason / be reasonable with Putin (and let's not kid ourselves, Putin is just the old Nomenklatura in a nicer suit and with better PR), and he doesn't play that game - it's difficult to be reasonable with an unreasonable opponent (as I'm sure you've found on this forum ;)).

But who, in over 3 generations, has tried to invade Mother Russia?

Anyhoo, have a great Christmas, and best wishes to you and yours.

Счастливого Рождества

Re: Putin warning...
 

I can see perfectly well where Russia is worried about the expansion of the EU but they are fixated on the past and really can't expect to carry on threatening/annexing former soviet states militarily without the sort of economic repercussions they're now experiencing. As usual, those who really suffer as a result of all the power games are the general population.

Who is Putin frightened of being 'conquered' by? If the peoples of other states decide their future lies elsewhere how does that amount to a major threat unless Putin is worried his own people will decide they'd like some of the same. That's their prerogative isn't it? I reckon Putin needs to maintain a high level of suspicion and doubt regarding the west as a device by which he can manipulate public opinion at home.

Anyway I'm shortly going to be having a beer or three and not threatening any of my neighbours...

(unless they try to steal my roasties that is....) :)

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Gentlemen, God rest ye and.........Merry Christmas :).

And that's my last word on the subject!

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I've unilaterally decided to annex the stuffingballs... :)

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Posted as I received it from a Malaysian friend:

Re: Putin warning...
 

Except that's not happening - the Russian Central Bank is helping companies with foreign debts....

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/...ies-meet-debts

And European countries exposure to Russian Government debt isn't as bad as the article makes out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/bu...isis.html?_r=0 I think you may find Natural News (the source of the original article) is just a slightly more civilised version of sites such as National Enquirer or WND, with stories such as "Tetanus vaccines found spiked with sterilization chemical to carry out race-based genocide against Africans".

Here is a much more even-handed article (imho) from the Economist on the subject of oil and gas exports from Russia, showing how stopping these to Europe could really damage Russia much more.