Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

The CEO of Netflix compares linear television to the horse and streaming services to the car. The former was ok until the latter was invented!

http://www.thedrum.com/news/2014/11/...-will-die-2030

Do people think he is correct that linear TV will die by 2020?

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Linear TV will continue to go on as not everybody want to stream things.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

In 1975 Business Week predicted that within 20 years we would all be working in paperless offices. But many of us are still surrounded by the stuff!

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

deleted - ignore my rambling i've been at the old whiskey again.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

No. Two reasons...
1) People like to watch things live
2) Some people would rather be spoonfed. Choosing what to watch is too much like hard work.

Out of interest, what job it that? I've worked pretty much paperless since the mid 1990s. Curiously VM still require a copy of expense claims on paper (maybe it's an HMRC requirement?), but I print very little else.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

I think (and hope) that you're right. There's something collective and social in many people watching the same programme at the same time.

Whilst I find it useful (and do use) VOD, there's something cold and clinical about it. The best anallergy as to what i'm getting at is that I think that people would rather listen to a live DJ led show, rather than listen to an automated radio station where the content is chosen by a computer- even if the actual tracks played were identical!

There was something to be said for the days when any major film or new drama was shown and the day after most, if not everybody, at work had seen it and were discussing it.

Perhaps internet forums now fill this gap??

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Do we want to be our own channel scheduler?
It's one thing being able to catch up on something you missed but to pick something for EVERY time slot!!

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Apologies for butting in on your conversation SP, but in food retail we use masses of paper on a daily basis. In waitrose all managers have been issued with Ipads, but the apps we use are pretty awful, and sadly they will not stop us using paper. An example of the paper we have to use/waste is that despite the fact we have to hand write a brief description of any changes to internal policy on a (paper) weekly checklist to show our understanding of the changes, we now have to print hard copies of the information gfrom the intranet and keep that sheet as well. This is all preventable as all the changes are stored online anyway. Complete waste of our time.
Other areas we have to use lots paper include the shop being separated into 5 different sections, and each section has to print off at least 2 different pages of rota's for each week. If a customer wants shopping delivered, we have 2 copies of the paperwork, one for us, one for the customer. If you were to walk in and order a case of wine to be picked up in 5 weeks time, again it will be 2 copies of paperwork (although they would go to 2 different sections this time.) Each section also has daily rotas, in which we write who is in each day because we need 2-3 people a day to run the sections and passing a paper copy along to next person in charge is the only way we can do it.

We go really do go through reams of paper a month, thankfully it is all recycled.

---------- Post added at 12:02 ---------- Previous post was at 11:57 ----------

Is it okay though? What if Sky continue to launch exclusives?

Providing FTA broadcasting continues (and I believe it should) surely letting all content providers sell their content via their own streaming services is the future? At least that way you can pick and choose what you want to watch, and mange how much you want to spend per month.

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I stopped listening to music radio stations years ago; pretty soon after the first legal streaming service launched in the UK and was followed by others. You get rid of the inane babble of the DJ and get to choose your own music.

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Yes, Den, but 15 years ago hardly anyone used the internet to shop, and even seven years ago, a lot of people wouldn't go there. But now, it's taken off.

It's only a matter of time before we all select our own viewing. As the younger generation brings into the population the latest ways of doing things, it is only a matter of time before these old ways really do start looking antiquated.

Why anyone should want to watch live broadcasting these days (apart from sport), I really don't know. Those ads drive me mad, as does having to wait until a previous programme ends before I can watch the one I'm waiting for to start!

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Agreed. A situation that a PVR solved for me years ago. Streaming isn't quite there yet for current episodes of all shows... but it's getting there.

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Streaming still has a long way to go in my opinion , most streaming services are packed with content that aired on pay TV/terrestrial TV ages ago (originals and the odd show being the exception).

Until streaming services are showing predominantly first run content people will stick with linear pay TV.

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BBC and Now TV are the ones I was thinking of when I said it's getting there. All the other UK services are filled with adds when watching on Catchup. Now TV has a few channel Identity adds, which aren't really needed but they only last a few seconds (at least on the current season of The Newsroom).
.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Maybe we will end up with just a handful of live tv channels I.E. ITV/BBC/c4 etc.
so last century.

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BBC is stuffed with adverts for their own programmes and services. Much more boring than the commercial commercials that try to gain our attention.

The only things I can see surviving the viewing revolution is rolling news broadcasts.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

and sport.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

On the other hand, on streaming services, you lose all the suspense in cliffhanger endings as you can just watch the next episode as soon as you want.

Netflix are riding high at the moment... In ten years, they could be as dead as those companies who relied on the video and dvd rental market to survive.

They will certainly need to radically improve their searching, and I don't mean just add more categories. It's too difficult, IMO, to find something decent on Netflix without being exposed to tons of crap. Personally, I want to push a button and be entertained when I get home. I don't want to be searching out one of a thousand TV shows I might like to watch.

And don't suggest suggestions. In my experience, it recommends episodes from 5 or 6 TV shows you watch. As soon as you venture outside those 5 or 6 shows, it starts recommending crap. And yes, I have spent a long time rating shows and films, so Netflix *should* have a fairly good idea of what I like to watch.

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I don't watch many shows via iplayer, but non of the ones that I have watched have had adverts in them.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Technically BBC do advertise they advertise the tv licence quite often.

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But do they ever do that, part way through a show you are watching on iplayer? I've never seen that.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Not seen it on iplayer yet.

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Don't know about i-player but I've seen them shoved in every 1/2 hr or so into Breakfast and also between the news and weather forecast.

Rarely if ever watch BBC output anyway.

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But it was I player I was talking about.

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Seeing as they're embedded in the Breakfast programme I expect you'll see them on i-player.

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Seriously? People watch the Breakfast programme on i-player?

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There are plenty of very sad people out there.:LOL:

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If I'm working in the kitchen for an extended period, the iPlayer on my iPad is my TV and radio.

Sometimes I'll choose a documentary on iplayer catchup or a playlist from Spotify but if it's evening, as often as not I'll have broadcast TV or radio playing.

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It's just that this is what you are used to, Stuart. My experience of just pushing the on switch and watching what is thrown at me, together with those incessant commercial breaks, is that this exposes me to the 'tons of crap' (as you so delicately put it) that you say you wish to avoid.

I am surprised really that you are so easily satisfied with watching one or two linear channels each night, but if that's what lights your fire, I'd make the most of it if I were you! And as for channel hopping, I do find that to be the most unsatisfactory experience - all those channels and nothing you want to watch!

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Here are last week's top viewed programmes (source: BARB). This is why it won't happen.

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Well there is only two programmes l like their but alas as usual TOH thinks differently.

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Indeed.

Not only do we viewers clearly still want a broadcast schedule, the broadcasters need a broadcast presence in order to advertise these top-rated shows to us. They cost a fortune to make and even if they were available on demand only, there would need to be some way of alerting us to the date and time when they became available to stream. And if Bit Torrent and Newsgroups have taught us anything, it's that the biggest fans of the biggest shows all want to see them as quickly as possible anyway; that's why the gap between broadcast in the territory where a show originated and broadcast in other places a broadcaster has bought the rights has shrunk until it's now almost non existent in many cases.

They call it "appointment to view" TV, and it's never going away.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

That list has also reminded me why I'm prepared to pay a cable subscription!

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Just do not believe this. Add it to vinyl records, radio, theatre, newspapers and countless other things experts said would be wiped out.... :-)

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Maybe not wiped out yet, Doug, vinyl records and newpapers have declined substantially.

I think there will always be a place for radio and theatre!

---------- Post added at 13:01 ---------- Previous post was at 13:00 ----------

There are plenty of ways of advertising the shows that are available. Linear TV does not have the monopoly on communication!

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

With top-rated shows holding the attention of 11 million people for an hour at a time, it's hard to beat and, especially for the BBC, it's free space, unlike billboards, newspaper or internet ads.

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Product placement is a very effective way of advertising too and i'd imagine it wouldn't involve much cost at all to the network.

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The only need for non streaming TV is live TV.

I cannot remember when I last watched commercial TV on a live basis, it's so much quicker. On E4 there is a 7 minute break during each Big Bang Theory and that's taking things too far. Even on BBC, I tend to series link programmes and watch them one after another.

Go TIVO!!

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

I'm going to stick my neck out and guess you don't have kids. ;)

A broadcast TV schedule, especially from a quality broadcaster like the BBC, is a Godsend, I can assure you ... and will remain so until we begin to pop out of the womb with an innate and highly evolved understanding of how to work a remote. :D

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Well past the kids stage Chris.

However I have sat through endless episodes of Thomas the Tank and Something Special with the grandchildren. The joys of Netflix & IPlayer.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Ah well there you go, you see ... just stick Cbeebies on instead and you get a variety of stuff instead of endless episodes of the same thing. :D

We have a Pingu DVD which we have relegated to the flat in Millport because we got to the point where we were being driven insane by the endlessly repeating theme tune and shrieks of NOOP NOOP! every five minutes for an hour. :disturbd:

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

I have Grandkids (9 and 4 respectively) and when they come round, they go straight to Netflix and select their own programmes.

The problem with sitting them in front of Cbeebies or any TV channel is what happens when something is on they don't like?

I think you underestimate the ability of children to make their own selections rather than be fed stuff that they may not actually choose to watch.

If they are very young, you can keep their attention better by selecting relevant material yourself. Far better than the old days, when I used to have to record their favourite programmes on a VHS tape and then play it back (once I found where a particular programme was!). What a palava!

---------- Post added at 12:36 ---------- Previous post was at 12:32 ----------

I think I'm right in saying that even live TV can be shown 'On Demand'; you just won't be able to fast forward beyond the present. The same principle as when you record a programme still being broadcast on your TIVO and play it back almost immediately.

---------- Post added at 12:40 ---------- Previous post was at 12:36 ----------

Well, I'm sure ways can be devised to advertise programmes available to see on demand and through streaming.

The programmes can be shown on the relevant menu pages (there is a way of doing this on a rolling basis already on the TIVO) and I dare say publications such as TV and Satellite Week will find new ways of providing us with up to date lists of what is available.

Linear channels is only one way of providing us with content and advertising the programmes available in different ways so that you don't miss what you want to see cannot be beyond the wit of man (or woman)!

---------- Post added at 13:00 ---------- Previous post was at 12:40 ----------

They do on linear TV, but not catch up.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Personally, I think there is room for both, and I don't think the current ISP networks would cope if broadcast TV stopped.

Something like Eastenders gets between 7 and 11 m viewers daily. With Unicasting (which is what all consumer streaming services, including Netflix) do, each extra viewer takes up extra bandwidth. Eastenders may take up 5Mbps, but it will require that 5mbps per user. Multicast internet is not really an option as it requires the stream to start at a certain time, so viewers lose the on demand option. However, Multicast internet shares an advantage with broadcasting. The programme being broadcast takes a finite amount of bandwidth regardless of how many viewers it has. So, Eastenders will take up 5Mbps regardless of whether it has 1 viewer or 11 million.

Regarding replacing SD with HD, again, that's not going to happen anytime soon. Partly because of bandwidth (again, the ISP networks won't be able to cope) and partly because of cost of remastering.

There is a hell of a lot of SD material out there. If a company offers a so called HD service that is mostly SD material, people are going to complain.

Now, you may argue they can remaster as a lot of (particularly us based) shows were shot on film, not video. True. They've been doing this with Star Trek: TNG, and the blu rays look amazing. However, it's also extremely costly to do. It costs a lot to remaster a film (I don't know the figure, but I believe it to be in the low millions), which may be only 1 or 2 hours long. Star Trek: TNG is over 140 hours long, and some TV shows are longer. It's just not viable to remaster most shows unless they can guarantee good boxset sales (as they pretty much can with TNG). Netflix, for all their good work, is unlikely to make enough money from such a series in extra subscriptions to make it work their while. And if Netflix do stream a remastered series immediately, they are going to pretty much torpedo any box set sales.



Bear in mind the source of this announcement. He has a vested interest in this happening as it will remove his major competition.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Is that true, that you cannot add something to 'on demand' that is currently being recorded by the provider? If you can do it with a home recorder, why can't you do it for this?

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I agree; there is little point in making the Freeview channels streaming only; a basic PVR coupled with catchup via the web and it's covered quite cheaply and efficiently for the consumer.

It's shows that end up on pay TV services that would be good to have access to via a no minimum contract web subscription rather than have to subscribe to a pay TV service to get them.

Whether those be from the premium US Cable Networks, such as HBO and Showtime etc. or the top rated shows from US Network TV channels (which tend to end up on a UK pay channel). And to be fair, Now TV is making reasonable in roads into providing that. It would be nice to have more options though.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Mine know how to work the iPlayer in our Freesat box - no issues there. ;)

But in the absence of TV on demand, there's absolutely nothing wrong with kids having to make do with what's available, rather than expecting to get their most favourite things, every minute of every day.

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I'm not talking about the recorders, I'm talking about the network itself. On a basic level, Unicast internet (the kind we normally get is possible because you, as a user, have your own connection to the server. Your software can retrieve what data it wants, when it wants. As long as the data is available on the server, obviously. The downside is that each user needs their own bandwidth because the server will not be sending out one copy of an item, it will be sending out potentially thousands, one for each user. This is incredibly inefficient bandwidth wise, but gives the user access to on demand resources.

Multicast internet works because the server sends out one copy of the data to it's local router(s) and the data is duplicated at that (or those) router(s), but they can only ever store a small part of the data, so the server will send part 1 to each router, which then distributes it to any devices that require it. The server will then send part 2, 3 etc. This is very efficient bandwidth wise, but the user cannot control what is broadcast or when. This is essentially the model Broadcast TV uses, although they don't necessarily use routers as such, and may not use internet technology, they do transmit a signal to a few sites where equipment essentially copies it, and transmits it to a wider area.

It's worth noting that bandwidth wise, we are struggling to cope with what is called "Full HD", which is actually 2k, but the tech companies are already selling 4K consumer equipment and looking (by 2030) to 8K or even 16K video.

Because of the use of bandwidth I mention above, while it may be feasible (with improved compression) to transmit 8 or even 16K TV over Satellite, Cable or Terrestrial TV, I doubt it will ever be feasible to enable on demand access to shows or films at that resolution.

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:tu:

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There's no logical reason why it can't be done. You just switch from multicast to unicast when the user pauses or rewinds. IPTV systems already work this way.

But it's pointless if you already have a broadcast system.

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Its sport and live tv which are the sticking point with the sport being more of the issue. My family rarely watch normal TV now its netflix, amazon, or Youtube. The only time I seem to watch normal tv now is the football and other sport and its the only reason I have cut the cord. If streaming options for Champions League and EPL come available it will the final nail in the coffin.

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Quiz shows seem more live when watched on linear TV.

Or is it just us?

Re: Broadcast TV to close by 2030?
 

Good article from The Verge on the future of TV watching, it's American centric but it applies here to.

http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/12/3...v-over-the-top