Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25939737

Let's hope they listen to him because if this kicks off what's going on in Syria could be the least of our troubles.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

wonder how much this will end up costing us

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

specially as Putin is flexing

If it goes the way of civil war you can bet mother Russia will wade in with their size 10's. There are some breakaway countries that Russia would love to have back in the fold. Who is to say that Russia didn't instigate this in the first place either. Love a conspiracy ;) let's get the ball rolling!

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

If it becomes civil war we should stay as far away from it as we can this is not something we should even contemplate getting involved in. Russia's backyard is not a place any western government wants to get involved in and rightly so as there is obviously more to this then we and i doubt our govenment know. Bar america trying to get involved in this for all the wrong reasns i hope we do stay clear time will tell.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Glad the USA didn't have that attitude in WW2.....

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes Hugh exactly the same circumstances :rolleyes:.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

yes they did for a few years. And as an educated man I am sure you already know they only actually joined us because of Hitlers treaty with Japan and the plans for the oil

If there is nothing in it for the yanks then the yanks frankly do not give a damn ;)

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Germany's declaration of war on the USA is what got them into the European theatre if Germany hadn't declared I doubt there would have been anything other then supplies from the US their public had no desire for wider conflict.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Hardly the brink of civil war while only one side has guns and while the military are still being paid I can't see that changing.

The brink of revolution perhaps.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Viktor Yanukovych (President) is also responsible for putting Yulia Tymoshenko (former prime minister) in prison for seven years. This man has to go.

I think the Ukraine arm forces may have a big say in this outcome and hopefully come out in support for closer ties with the EU.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26249330

Don't think this is going away anytime soon.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

This is still about the people wanting to join EU and the Government wanting to keep a close alliance with Russia isn't it? Do we know how the population divides? Is it mostly pro-EU or is there a good body of public support to remain good relations and close ties with Russia?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I see the number of fatalities has increased to 13, 6 of whom are police.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

While Ukranian ethnicity is a complex subject at a granular level bearing in mind the fact that those lands have been some of the most contested on the globe over the past 1500 years or so, the key divide in this day and age is that between native Ukrainian speakers and ethnic Russians (mainly around the Eastern and South Eastern borderlands).

There's a reasonably well balanced article here which puts the current situation into perspective somewhat while putting some numbers into the frame. The highlights being that 41 percent of those polled prefer a trade agreement with the EU versus 38 percent aligning with the Russian customs union. Presumably the remaining 21 percent were too drunk to care.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26304842

They think it's all over, it's not yet!

I can't see the Russians accepting this with good grace. They'll not be wanting Ukraine to move closer to the EU.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I hope you're wrong but the Eurocrats' determination to expand the EU never seems to stop and sooner or later it'll be a step too far. Maybe Putin will decide this is that step... :erm:

For me the EU is like a housing bubble about to burst - driven by sentiment but underpinned by little.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I believe Russia has warned both NATO and the EU in the past about encroaching too near to them but nothing must stop the great EU project even if it brings into conflict with russia . This obsession to expand an already badly balanced union is crazy they need to stop stabilise and listen not something the EU has ever been accused of being good at.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Or perhaps the majority of Ukrainians have had enough of Putin's bullying after centuries of conflict and decades of oppression. When I say Ukrainians, I'm not talking about ethnic Russians who happen to live there.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Quite probably but the EU still needs to be conscious of whose toes it's treading on.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

There's too much politics involved in this to simply go along with what the Ukrainian people might want and even if we were totally convinced it was what they wanted Russia and it's position cannot just be ignored. Putin is a bully no its or buts but he also controls a lot of energy and a growing military force with some generals that feel Russia needs to assert itself more on the international stage it's a dangerous mix for the EU to stomp into. A transitional period is needed here and maybe even concessions to Russia in some form.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

When Putin and his ilk are gone there may be a chance that the "Rodina" and the West may be able to play nice. However I don't truly believe that the issue is with the EU, after all Ukraine would offer little to a CIS customs union monetarily. I believe the issue is with Obama or whatever cowboy succeeds him sticking his beak in just as he is now.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The people of Ukraine should decide what happens with their country and the EU should be willing to help if that's what the people want rather than sacrifice them to appease Putin. You let Russia do this and they'll still try to do so elsewhere.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The ex-President has fled to Russia or Belarus and has left behind a most lavish palace. Shame he was not joined by Nigel Farage and UKIP and Mr Dave and his Tory cronies.

The Ukraine has a massive amounts of land and is the bread basket of Europe plus other agricultural commodities which will benefit us in the EU.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Few would argue against that, here anyway, but getting involved in disputes with former Soviet states is a tricky policy which could backfire very badly.

I think the EU needs to be very careful how it goes about courting new members to the club and think its desire to expand is ill judged.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So is Russia's desire to expand it's influence further. Let the people decide what they want to do rather than leave them to the Russians for fear of upsetting them.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

And at what point do the stakes become too high? If Ukraine succeeds in this very likely other former Soviet states will want to follow. I don't know about you but I think a) the EU has more than enough balls to juggle right now and b) being seen to undermine Russia too much would be a very bad idea and I have no desire for us to return to the days of the cold war or anything like it.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Russia is almost if not larger then the EU and like it or not cannot be disregarded plus given how much energy goes from Russia to the west it's not smart to create tension. In an ideal world of course it would be as simple as what the Ukrainians want but this is the real world with real consequences for recklessness. I might understand this rabid rush by the EU to expand if all was well and good with currant members but the whole thing right now is a mess they have better priorities right now to sort out without creating tension with Russia.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Agree, the sooner or later the Russians are going to get mightily hacked off with what they see as threatening EU expansionism.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

They fail entirely to see that the rest of the world thinks they are just as guilty of expansionism..and that we all expect them to revert to what they were before.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It's the different political perspectives and motives that make this so worrying.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Backing away from them will only make the problem of an aggressive Russia worse. If they manage to impose their will upon the Ukraine they'll do it elsewhere too. If we don't want another cold war then it's a bad idea to cede the former soviet bloc to them against the will of the people of those countries.

---------- Post added at 21:34 ---------- Previous post was at 21:26 ----------

Where do we draw the line if not at the infringement of the will of the people of a sovereign country? Do we just cut them loose in the hope that it will quench Putin's thirst for more influence, do we cut other Eastern European countries loose as well? Maybe the line is drawn at Poland? Germany?

Russia isn't all-powerful either. They have domestic trouble and are heavily dependent on selling energy to power their economy and if Western European increasingly adopts alternative forms of energy (nuclear, shale gas, renewables) then that could undermine Putin's regime. We should stick up for ourselves and for the people of the Ukraine. Granted we shouldn't start a war with Russia and the EU should not trample on them for the sake of cowardice and appeasement either.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Does Russia want to control Ukraine, or do they simply not want somebody else to control it, ie EU.

Ukraine will end up being another financial burden on the financial contributors to EU, eg UK.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Damien don't mistake Russia wanting to be more influential in international affairs meaning they have shock armies waiting to annex countries as in the past all they want is a buffer zone between their interests and the west and given the history between the two I don't think that's a bad idea. Putin is not getting any younger neither are the other semi hard liners it's a game of time we must play and make it possible for future good relations with a more modern and relaxed Russia those elements that want a new Russia are already making their feelings felt hence the internal trouble you mention.

I think instead of constant expansion the EU needs to get what it's got right and working for all member states not adding more to a pot already boiling. Most of all I don't want to take any chance of increased tensions with Russia because the past teaches us most that regimes with trouble at home jump into military adventures and as its people of my kids age that would bear the brunt I want no totally unnecessary idiocy or sabre rattling. Ukraine is in no danger of being controlled or taken over by Russia unless they were pushed into a corner.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

What do you think has been happening over the last few months?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

One group of Ukrainians disagreeing with another group of Ukrainians not a single Russian military unit to be seen is what's been going on.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Wait until the status of Odessa comes into question. That's when Putin will act.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

If your referring to the oil and chemical pipelines Uncle the Russians started making plans round Odessa a few years ago when they had the energy spate with Ukraine and Odessa is too far into Ukraine for Russia to risk any sort of military involvement. Russia's political class do not want a military entanglement in Ukraine as well as Chechnya and Putin still has too many allies within the military for some hard liner to go off the rails. Putin and wider Russia just want a buffer from the west they don't want it on the doorstep adding more to the problems Russia already has.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Backing away wouldn't be necessary if the EU weren't hell bent on expanding in all directions for reasons which are beyond me. More members of the club is simply adding to the complexity of the whole things and introducing more variables into the equation.

Given its history we'd be wise not to encroach too far towards Russia's borders because sooner of later they will react and that reaction could well lead to armed conflict. Yes I know you tend not to believe such things could happen in Europe but there's nothing more dangerous that an enemy which feels cornered and perceives its integrity is under threat. The EU has enough fish to fry and if you feel it's OK for it to carry on courting former Soviet states at which point do you feel, if at all, that has to stop? If the Russian people started demanding they join the EU despite the opposition of their government would that be OK? Would the EU be right to encourage that and thereby be seen to be destabilising the country by those in control of a massive military? That's how it'd be seen in Moscow isn't it if more former Soviet states start making overtures to the EU.

Frankly I don't see any benefit in enlarging the EU right now or in the foreseeable future, even less so if it risks falling foul of the likes of Russia who've proved themselves to be unpredictable in the past. Like it or not Russia is a very powerful country and we shouldn't be playing call my bluff with them.

You used the terms cowardice and appeasement and I feel that's rather simplistic and in fact a dangerous view. I'd call it reality and it's the very same reality that prevents us from pushing China around when we don't like what they're up to or intervening in many of the larger disputes around the globe in which peoples are striving for freedom of choice.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

All the EU have done so far is agreed a free trade deal. This is apparently the will of the majority of the population of the Ukraine who don't want to be in the clutches of Russia nor a pawn in a second-coming of the Eastern bloc.


I don't believe it can't happen in Europe. I think it's unlikely. However the answer is not appeasement to ever more aggressive Russian expansion. They will not stop if we cede them the Ukraine.

The right to self-determination should be paramount. These aren't Russia's countries, they belong to the people of those countries and they, not Russia nor the EU, should choose who governs them and what agreements they enter into. If they want to enter a free-trade agreement with the EU then more power to them.

Frankly I don't see any benefit in enlarging the EU right now or in the foreseeable future, even less so if it risks falling foul of the likes of Russia who've proved themselves to be unpredictable in the past. Like it or not Russia is a very powerful country and we shouldn't be playing call my bluff with them.

Sometimes you can't do anything. Sometimes you can push back. We do push back against China where we can, we put pressure on them to help us reign in North Korea, we put pressure on them not to infringe on the rights of Taiwan. Now we're pushing back against Russia by supporting the people of that country in upholding their right to choose who governs them and not abandoning them to the Kremlin.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

You still haven't said at what point that pushing should stop or acknowledged that the next push back might just be one push too far with calamitous results. We can't help everyone towards self determination and some would say, by being part of the EU ironically, we've sacrificed much of ours to people we don't elect.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

All the EU are doing is offering a free trade deal with the European bloc.

We stop pushing when there are no options available to us. If Russia move their tanks into the Ukraine then there may be little we can do but whilst the whole thing is Russia threatening to cripple the Ukraine by withdrawing Oil or closing industries they own in the East then we can push back but continuing to offer the deal that was agreed and which the people want.

After All if the Ukrainian people are willing to fight for it, even in the face of violence, then for us to cowardly abandon them would embolden Russian expansionism no end.

When do you think we stand up to Russian bullying? They bring Ukraine into their club then turn their attention towards other countries who equally don't want to join, do we say enough is enough then or do we once again turn our tails and run, leaving another people to their unwanted fate, all because we're scared of Russia?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

And that's how it begins. Remember the 'common market' concept that was sold to us all that time ago. Once they get a toe in the door the death of 1000 cuts begins and your self-determination is gone.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So you think the choice they are facing is EU corruption or Russian corruption?EU self determination or Russian self determination?

Personally I'd rather deal with the EU if that's the choice.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

No, perhaps I should have expanded. Odessa and Sevastopol are vital to the existence of the Black Sea Fleet (albeit a shadow of it's former self) and my belief is that Putin and his minions would see Ukraine divided before entertaining the prospect of losing such a key, strategic location. Either that or effect some kind of arbitrary annexation as the Soviets did with the unsightly wart on the landscape that is Kaliningrad.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yeah right, no intention whatsoever of getting as many new members as possible into the club... :rolleyes:

We start resisting if and when Russia directly threatens our interests and right now the Ukraine is a problem we don't have and don't need. We've plenty on our plate to deal with already and this is just adding to the instability. Ukraine was once in their club and Russia didn't prevent them leaving. What the EU is doing is going to be seen as eroding the buffer zone of countries adjacent to Russian soil and that's a big problem.

So, according to your logic we should assist the Ukranians to pull further away from Russia if they so wish but then stop if the Russians call our bluff and move their tanks in. What sort of help is leaving them high and dry? That's a recipe for being damned by both sides and it's happened before where we've intervened then got the hell out leaving those we were supposed to be trying to help to their fate.

It's not cowardice but common sense to avoid getting entangled in a potential war you can't win unless there's no other option. So far as I can see right now Russia isn't seeking to expand anywhere, it's seeking to prevent a former Soviet state from moving further towards the EU. We can argue about the rights and wrongs of all this but there is another option to getting directly involved and that is to keep out of it just like we have done and are doing selectively elsewhere around the globe.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes eventually they're a option to become another EU members. Ukraine has harboured that ambition for a while. It's that is what they want it is their choice, not ours nor Russias. Anyway this is more than that now. It may have been the spark but it grew into more. The protestors believe the Government was corrupt and serving it's own interests. Their attempts to use violence against the protestors inflamed it more.

I think that had more to do with the dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union more than anything else.

It's not just what the EU is doing it's what the people of the country are doing as well. If they didn't want anything to do with the EU then I would agree but it appears they do and it's their decision to make. The Ukrainians don't see themselves as a mere buffer zone.

Yes because we provide what help we can. Honouring the terms of an agreement they wanted is not especially taxing for us. What other policies and agreements should be cancel at the behest of Russia?

Besides it's not as if moving the tanks in is an action without cost for Russia. They're currently doing the same as the EU, willing to support the country if they choose them. However unlike the EU they don't have the backing of the majority of the country.

No one is advocating getting involved in a war. We're talking about supporting the citizens of the country by not cancelling the free trade agreement. A agreement some want us to cancel because we don't want to upset Russia.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

We're talking about rattling Russia's cage unnecessarily and potentially getting embroiled in something which could easily escalate out of control and end in armed conflict. The EU's interest in Ukraine will not stop at a pure trade agreement and the Russians know this.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It's not unnecessary. It's supporting the right of the citizens to make their own choice about their future.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So why the Ukrainians all of a sudden there have been dozens of countries in the last twenty years where the will of the people were ignored by us even when mass killing started. This is about Russia pure and simple and it's something that could get out of control very quickly with bad handling the EU is not renowned for great handling of things.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well for our point of view Europe is our backyard. However it's not all of a sudden, we have tried sanctions and other forms of diplomatic pressure in other countries but not always with their military apart from Bosnia. We took an interest in the Ukraine during the Orange revolution. We (well, mostly the EU) got involved in the Russian war in Georgia too. European countries have always been rather involved with the Eastern Bloc since the fall of the Soviet Union. It's utterly baseless to suggest that we've ignored them until now.

We can't keep backing down in the face of Russia. It won't end well. Putin will see that Europe not only doesn't have the will to stop them but will even terminate relations with those countries to appease Russia. It's not as if Russia would love to escalate things either, instability in the Eastern Bloc doesn't help them anymore than it helps us.

I don't really think Russia has the will to invade a democratic country to install a puppet regime. I think they will also be limited to diplomatic pressure such as withdrawing loans and oil. This is where the EU should step in and let them know that if they don't have friends in the East then they have them in the West and that they, the people of the Ukraine, should decide who governs them. Be is an administration who favours Russia, one who favours the EU, or one who chooses to attempt neutrality and becoming a Eastern Switzerland who really don't want to get involved.

The important thing is to allow them to make that choice themselves rather than do as you suggest and enforce Russian-installed governments to keep the Kremlin happy.

---------- Post added at 20:28 ---------- Previous post was at 20:26 ----------

The EU and the people of the Ukraine. Whose complaints extend to more than just the rejection of the EU trade agreement.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Interesting read here which shows how complicated this could easily become:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26321329

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

3% difference in the polls isn't enough of a majority to get my support, I don't see how such a meaningful decision with such widespread ramifications can be decided on such a small number

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

That was presumably before the crisis kicked off.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...93992459983238

Besides as I said previously this has become about more than just a desire to join the EU. It's also about the Kermlinisation of the Ukrainian government, it's close ties to Russia and back room deals, and the overruling of the Ukrainian people .

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So it'll be out of the frying pan and into the for them if the UK is anything to go by what with the euroupenisation of our parliament, the back room deals and the overruling of our people. Meet the new boss Ukraine, same as the old boss, just slightly more sophisticated.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

tbf, we are less likely to send in tanks, helicopter gunships, and ground attack fighter/bombers, so I am not sure if that is an apt comparison....

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The UK Government is not comparable to the Kremlin either. When a country at our borders with close cultural ties talks of breaking away we grant them a referendum to let them decide.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Aren't we, how many times have EU tanks, planes and gunships seen action this millennium compared to their Russian counterparts.

---------- Post added at 16:19 ---------- Previous post was at 16:17 ----------

What about large swathes to the east that are overwhelmingly Russian in orientation will we stand by and let important areas like Donetsk declare independence or stick up for our new Ukranian friends

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

No but then we don't have the EU sending tanks into Wales or Scotland because they didn't vote for the Tories. The vote of the Russian-friendly leader was mostly respected within the country and outside of it (even if that the outside relief was based on self-interest) and it was only after the recent moves from that Government that people reacted. Still we should respect the democratic process in the country presuming it hasn't been rigged. A new election needs to be undertaken and then we'll see where we are.

However it's simply not justifiable to deny them the right to be pro-EU for fear of upsetting the Russians. The desire some on here have for the EU to withdraw the trade agreement and make it clear they will not help or respect any desire to move closer to the Western European nations will remove that right.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

If all that was on the table was a trade deal I doubt Russia would be too bothered I think it's more the case that it will start with a trade deal and end with EU membership being offered as is the EU norm. They have shown themselves to be an organisation happy to go against original intentions UK being a prime example. Not to mention of course the favourable terms Ukraine will enjoy to deepen it's desire to get further involved in the EU Russia's heavy hand threat or the EU's insidious creep talk about rock or a hard place.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Instead we have EU countries taking part in unjust conflicts so we can pinch their oil and is that a no we won't stand by and watch the country split in two, so much for democracy or is it democracy when it suits us same as always.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Russia probably know Ukraine will move closer to the EU as the public have shown support for it. It's nothing to do with "original intentions", it's very opaque. It's not Russia's choice though.

---------- Post added at 20:25 ---------- Previous post was at 20:24 ----------

What do you mean "so much for democracy"? You're the one arguing against it.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Really I thought you were when you said we wouldn't stand by and watch the country split in two

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I never said that. I said we should support the democratic will of the people of the Ukraine irrespective of if they want to join the EU, join the Russian Customs Union, or try and remain outside both camps. I also dismissed the idea of it being unfair to the east of the country because that's how Democracies work, you don't always get what you want.

That said if the country does prove unable to manage with the two differing sides then maybe the Eastern region breaking away is more logical than trapping people in a constant state of tension and conflict.

Either way it's not our choice to decide what they get. If they want the EU then the EU should support that. If they want Russia then Russia will support that. If they want to be neutral and not be in a proxy war between east and west then both sides should support that.

However at the moment Russia is/was trying to prevent the EU trade deal by back room deals with the former administration of the Ukraine. This administration has now been overthrown partly due to that. Now they should vote to decide what happens next.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Trouble is Damien your version of democracy and the version many eastern Europeans version is a little difference also there has been so much more map rewriting in eastern Europe that the complications are massively harder to work round then they are in the west even putting aside the Russian migration throughout much of the last century to create strong areas of Russian support. My biggest objection to us getting involved is simply there is too much wrong to put right on our doorstep to go off again intervening in other countries and it's the same for the eu. For many the European dream has become a nightmare spend the time and effort correcting that so that the lives of current members improve.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I think it's entirely democratic for them to split if the vast majority of a particular area are in favour of it, you don't think Scotland isn't democratic do you?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I think it is democratic for that to happen too. I just don't think it's undemocratic if they lose the (hopefully coming) election. You don't always get what you want. Ask Scotland.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Hardly democratic to keep them locked in a union when the vast majority want to leave, that's Ukraine btw, with Scotland it's just the majority of the rest of us that wants them to go

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Pesky Ruskies...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

I like the 'surprise' part. Makes it sound fun.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Ukrainian leader rattling back.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26366700

This is all getting quite worrying.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Someone needs to tell Putin the Ukraine is not his country. I still suspect they're just doing to intimidate. The consequences of Russia invading a Foreign democratic country would be too serious even for Putin to seriously contemplate.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Just like the consequences were with Georgia?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

What could/would we do about it?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Both sides have very capable military forces so it wouldn't be pretty. They're going to have to sort it out amongst themselves, sensibly I hope. This is no occasion for any NATO intervention.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

We couldn't do anything but there would still be consequences.

First of all it would pretty much end any chance Russia has of convincing the Ukrainian citizens to seek closer ties with them and further destabilise the region on their border. It would do the same to the other Eastern European states they wish to join their Custom Union. Those countries will look at Russia with further distrust and a stronger desire to seek refuge to towards the West. Also, and I don't know this for sure, but domestic pressure on Putin will surely increase if he drags them into a war against a country which is not only democratic but poses no threat to them.

It just seems so stupid. However it's a worrying sign how far Russia may go. As I said before they need to be stood up to (diplomatically). When the citizens rejected the increasing Russian influence on their Government they start moving armed forces around to intimidate.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes there would be consequences and we may consider Putin's actions stupid but we aren't in a position to do anything meaningful were the Russians to march into Ukraine. Who are we to say which states pose a threat to Russia and which do not. Russia's big enough to decide that for itself and I don't see them sitting back and doing nothing about what's going on for long if, rightly or wrongly, they feel their security is at risk. I just hope that a suitable compromise can be found because if one isn't this could get very messy indeed. The EU has dangled a carrot in front of Ukraine and that could turn out to be the catalyst for a serious conflict.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Or they feel their influence is at risk by allowing the Ukraine to choose for itself.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

They'd argue that their security also depends on their influence in those countries which surround their borders. To that extent they'll understandably not want what's going on in Ukraine to have a domino effect.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26379722

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Moving quite fast now. Russia moving into Crimea...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Some will say the EU effectively handed Putin the excuse he needed to justify action in Ukraine which he'd probably been planning for ages. One thing's for sure, there are no easy, straightforward, decisions in matters such as these.

Wonder if Hugh's Cold War loins are stirring... :erm:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It's not just the EU though. It's also the increasingly authoritarian actions of the President. Forcing laws through Parliament, allegedly illegally (I am not an expert on Ukrainian politics so not sure how that is possible), including laws that limited freedom of speech and protests. The Ukraines perceived an increasingly Kremlin style Governance was taking hold and being aware of the last time they lived under such influence they had no desire to do so again. The closer ties with the EU may be the straw that broke the camel's back but it isn't the main cause of the crisis.

These events were always on the cards the moment Putin identified Ukraine as central to his plans for a Russian Customs Union. If the people of the Ukraine aren't keen on it then they were going to exert pressure on the Government to do it anyway, he probably didn't expect them to fight back.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

People in Russia should rise up and get rid of Putin and Medvedev.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Remember the Fulda Gap! ;)

I have been watching this with interest - reminds me so much of the Prague Spring; if it hadn't been for this reason, there would have been another reason for Russki boots on the ground.

Putin's not much different from his Comintern predecessors, just more fiscally corrupt.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The real question is this: Alex Ferguson was at United for the entirety of modern Ukrinances existence as a Independent country and as soon as Moyes take over they find themselves invaded. Coincidence?

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

That and a sudden improvement in West Ham's form... :scratch:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

SHOULD GET RID OFF... please read carefully.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Text-book operation up to now... well it would have been in the 1950s or 1960s anyway. If Putin wants to annexe Crimea then he should be careful what he wishes for as should the ethnic Russian Ukrainians on team Ruskii. This is potentially anoter proverbial crap sandwich of similar magnitude to Chechnya and he's not going to be able to get away with the type of cultural vandalism and oppression meted out by Stalin to assert authority and weed out any potential opposition.

Putin needs to concentrate on watching his own back at home rather than what's happening beyond his borders.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

This could get ugly very quickly :(

At least i am to old and will not be sitting in a tank looking down into the fulda gap this time :LOL:

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

You wonder what his thinking is. There is little benefit to annexing Crimea, other than some emotional appeal and grandstanding, and a litany of drawbacks. At the very least they're creating an unstable situation on their border and they're also finishing off any prospect they had of convincing Ukrainians to look to the East. They'll alienate other prospective allies in the region as well all of whom may be looking over their shoulders. The result of aggression towards Georgia was seeing them increasing their relationships with the West not the East.

This is likely like a calculated move and more like a madman randomly lashing out...

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Substitute Scotland for Crimea and it's all a bit Salmond like don't you think? :D

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Oh come on Osem that is a really unfair comparison. :rem:

One of them is a megalomaniacal populist with a penchant for dishonesty and a contempt for democracy whilst Putin is just the Russian President.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26388057

I think it's the Black Sea bases that are primarily the reason for these 'gunmen'. Russia is just taking care of it's own business.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

They'll probably have to fly Emirates though. I'm surprised they managed to find more than a couple of airworthy IL76's!

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well they could always use Ryanair which runs a very cheap and convenient service into Crimea I understand. The airport's very conveniently situated too, just on the outskirts of Sofia... :D

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

They've approved the use of armed forces. At least Russia has given up the pretence

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Now it gets ugly, be ready for an armed escalation. There are to many armed men in close proximity and one itchy trigger finger could start a full blown battle.