Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21544685

Admin edit (Chris): Cloud cuckoo land made-up link replaced with something that actually works. PLEASE LEARN HOW TO USE THE INTERNET.

It has been sated that David Cameron is facing a leadership battle if the Tories lose Eastleigh by election.

It appears that the Tories will lose out to UKIP and that Labour will come second and the Tories behind the Lib Dems.
All the big guns are in the area including Boris Johnson to try and get the votes in - is this the sign that the Tories are running scared and that the voters will vote with there X.

On the Tv last night and today Tv crews are asking voters what they think and the vast majority are voting for the UKIP party:(

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Quite a call that you think the by-election is going to finish: UKIP, Labour, Lib Dem, Tory.......

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Complete fantasy, of course. Labour is not going to come second in Eastleigh. The Party is nowhere in that part of the world.

It's Lib Dem territory, formerly Tory, the sort of seat Cameron should have won in 2010. The outcome will be interesting and very important because both the leading parties in the constituency are in the government. Cameron needs it, to be able to claim support forums programme, Clegg needs it, to be able to prove the Lib Dems aren't going to sink without trace in 2015 and Miliband desperately wants it so he can claim the Coalition is losing its legitimacy.

Sadly for Dave, his outside chance of winning the seat have been wrecked by UKIP which will take enough votes to ensure the Tories can't win. The most likely outcome is a Lib Dem hold. Who comes after that is anyone's guess, but UKIP's showing is what everyone's wanting to see. Has Dave's promise of a referendum neutralised UKIP or not? We shall have to wait and see.

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I don't trust Dave to give us a Referendum as he will Wiesel out of it, therefor my only option is UKIP.

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Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

I would have done however they are not open Arthur send me a pm with an email address in so I can help you out mate

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

:tu:

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

So they're voting in Eastleigh today. Polls suggest no big surprise or upset in the result and therefore no big consequence as a result. The Liberal Democrats are expected to win, a good result for them. The Conservatives should come second which isn't a disaster but will cause concerns about their ability to win in 2015. Labour won't feature again which puts them in the same position as the Tories, not a big problem but raises questions.

The interesting one is if UKIP can spring a surprise...

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

On the contrary, some of the latest polling puts Lib, Con and UKIP close enough together as to be overlapping on margin of error. A Lib Dem hold is the most likely outcome but the polls are certainly not suggesting there will be no surprises. Anything could happen, especially as many political hacks are returning from a shift in the constituency reporting how surprised they are at the level of organisation UKIP has achieved in this campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...s-believe.html

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

I know UKIP are fighting hard for this

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Ah The Telegraph have put up a paywall and I have exceeded my free articles this month. :erm: Although only £2 a month isn't bad. Anyway.

I thought the polling led to what I've written. Lib Dems first, Tory 2nd. UKIP were polling high but a few percentage points behind the top two. UKIP could pull a surprise but it remains unlikely as I understand it.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

The top line:

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Well 7 percentages points is a pretty big gap...So I do think that the polls suggesting 'no big surprise' was fair ;)

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Good

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

The thing is, the margin of error is +/- 5 points. Which means it is possible at one end of that range that UKIP is actually polling 3 points ahead of the Lib Dems. That is not the most likely scenario, I agree, but the message the pollsters are giving today is that the race is very close and to predict no surprises is to be a hostage to fortune.

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Well we'll find out soon enough. I hope there is a surprise. Makes things interesting. I would like to see Labour suffer a bit of a set back because I think they'll be stronger if the wrong Miliband and Ed Balls leave. UKIP winning would be a fascinating result too or a Liberal Democrat collapse.

The polling suggests a scenario where the status quo remains = boring.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

A Lib hold isn't boring, as it will almost certainly be marginal enough for UKIP to get the blame for the Tories not winning the seat, even if they are a close second. If UKIP proves it really can be a Tory-killing electoral force, that has profound implications for the way the 2015 election is fought.

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Liberal Democrats think they've held the seat and UKIP have come second!

---------- Post added at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:47 ----------

God I hate Question Time. So much populist nonsense. How many times can people say "This is what is turning people off politics" and get a massive round of applause? It's almost as effective as "It's about the Oil!" or "Put MPs on minimum wage".

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

It can't get much worse than Claire Perry: The deficit doesn't matter. We need to talk about what matters in people's daily life.

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Who's policy is that, it'll get my vote!

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I don't know, usually gets said at some point. :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3tUqRBiMVo

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

I think they should turn it around: "It's about the minimum wage!" or "Put MPs on oil".

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

make sure oil boiling first;)

Minimum wage thing is absolute fair infact get them on workfare:D About time being MP about serving a nation rather it being way fleece it.

It would get those parasite career MP's out quicker you can shout swear words at them.

I hope its right concervative third that horrorable women should not ever be position of power. She sounded like any other posh idiots we got in parliment last thing we need more idiots. Sadly high saleries easy ways to boost incomes by claiming pitiful things which should come out there own pocket.

Its cash cow that many privilaged love suck its teet. They certainly would not vote for big cuts sadly show the country that we truly all together. Cameron showed again that pitiful lie.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Yes it does. Angela Eagle, seemingly receiving instructions on what to say via a very poor-quality earpiece connected to a house in Kirkcaldy.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

She does seem a little slow. But she makes up for it by focussing on content. Not the most popular choice these days I know. Prizes for presentation and glibness clearly go to Perry.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

still looking like a Liberal win with UKIP second but it is close still nice to see Tories 3rd either way

---------- Post added at 02:24 ---------- Previous post was at 01:38 ----------

Think Farage should have stood still hey how

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Glad to see UKIP came second and put the conservatives into 3rd

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

UKIP would have won that seat if their vote hadn't been split by the Conservatives.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Methinks a number of arses have received major kicks.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

If Farage had stood I think they would have

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

anybody hear the ukip candidate last night comments about future plans. That UKIP/Conservative if ukip get sweeping seats. If cameron holds to word referendum likely they will join up for next coalition government.

If its true any Labour supporters better be more aware you shooting yourself in foot voting for UKIP.

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I do not like that. Unless of course Farage is less than off a puppy than Clegg

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Would not trust it at all to be fair. Would think as long they get there deals they will go with whatever policy conservative bring to the table. Would equally think the same for any them getting in bed with Labour.

I would also mis trust any party who thinks its good bring in disgraced Neil Hamilton into its fold.

Surely if you want to bring refreshed breath to the political system. Then stay away from disgraced MP's. How many other there brigade ex disgraced MP's.

The whole political system corrupt to core same faces just shift there aliance like the wind when they get booted out.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Hamilton's a buffoon but he knows how the system works. I can quite understand why they brought him in to their NEC. Even though he was a complete fool on QT last night. It's also worth pointing out that he was never convicted of a criminal offence, unlike a number of politicians from both sides of the House who have done bird over their expenses.

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I'm all for UKIPs stance on Europe but what else can they bring to the party ?

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Click my sig

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We cannot have a coalition between UKIP and the Tories, it will be worse than what it is now.

Tories is bad enough, but with UKIP it will be worse.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Why, specifically, will it be worse?

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Some of it 's ok and i would support it but some i feel may be harder to do than to put in a nice shiny manifesto leaflet ,such as repealing the Human Rights Act.I think the best UKIP could or should hope for is a coalition with the conservatives

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Because its not labour, the only party fit to lead the country in the eyes of good ole Arthur. :)

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I would have thought Farage and Arthur would have been best buddies given that Arthur is always banging on about stuff Farage wants to do like getting out of europe ,keeping front line staff in the police and life means life etc

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Under a Labour government, it would put the working person first, yes they have borrowed vast amounts of money before, but l was watching Question Time last night and Mr Hamilton said that under the Tory party, there borrowing had trebled under the coalition, than ever did under Labour.

We need a government to run this country that is not going to there rich friends with tax breaks, and licking there lips whilst the poor suffer more and more. Since the coalition has been in power NOT one of there promises have been kept.

With UKIP, so far l have not found any truth in what they say, same as the Tories. They are a new party, so why should we believe them

Cameron said on Sky News, that the Eastleigh by election is a protest vote, l call it a kick in the teeth by finishing behind UKIP in THIRD place, yes Labour finished last, but Milliband said that they have NEVER won the seat.

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I think you're being a little unfair there. They said they were going to give the poor a bollocking, which they have.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

A lot of members have fixed views on a range of subjects not just Arthur

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Couple of things Arthur ,

Under 13yrs of labour rule loads of "rich friends" where created and made richer by labour and it's misuse of public funds

UKIP was founded in 1993 so hardly a new party ,not as old as labour or the tories granted but not exactly new

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

with all due respect them days of Labour died with Blair becoming party leader and New Labour. The last time the party put the working class first they were run by Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock. Blair was/is pro Europe and was so far up Bush's backside he could clean his teeth from behind

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So you want Labour back in so they can destroy the economy all over again. Nice one Arthur

Anyway glad to see UKIP on the way up, We might yet get that referendum we all want :tu:

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Is anyone surprised by this result?

The Lib-Dems are usually the beneficiaries of protest votes, but in this case, they are tarred with being in power with the Tories, and Labour voters are rarer than rocking horse poo in Eastleigh (even as a protest vote - the Labour vote dropped by 20% compared to 2010).

The only beneficiaries had to be UKIP.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Under the Tories, we have had THREE recessions, unemployment has shot up, EACH day we have major High Street stores going out of business.

Energy prices are going through the roof, whats Cameron doing about it NOTHING, Petrol prices are soaring what is Cameron doing about it NOTHING. 70% of petrol we buy goes into the treasury in tax

The banks are now paying out massive bonuses whats the Government doing NOTHING.

The welfare state is being hit badly by the government
The poor are suffering due to cutbacks
The police service is being hit badly all over the UK
Businesses are now moving abroad to save money due to high cost of working in the UK.
Everyday people are being made redundant
To make money the Government have introduced ' Bedroom Tax' are they introducing the Mansion Tax, no in case it effects them for donations.

Need l go on, l am fed up to the back teeth with people who are supporting a coalition government when most of my workmates are being made redundant as companies they work for can't get the work to keep them on.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

It is just a shame Arthur Labour have nothing better to offer

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Wise words, I totally agree.

---------- Post added at 15:40 ---------- Previous post was at 15:32 ----------

:D:D:D

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Actually it was under John Smith, a man that I'd have voted for, his death prevented not only a genuine socialist government it all so bequeathed us new labour and Arthur's right a Tory/ ukip coalition is the worst option for the poor or anyone that gives a toss about public services and that's despite me voting for them long before it was either fashionable or a protest.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Agreed, as far as I am concerned there is little difference between Labour and the Conservatives today. Both have lurched to the center and both seem more interested in clinging onto/regaining power that actually running the Country.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

One thing that has been notable about the current recession is that unemployment did NOT shoot up

Energy prices are going through the roof because Labour did not build any new power stations ,the ones we have now ,mostly coal fired are long past their sell by date and are being closed down ,labour made no effort whatsoever to address the energy crisis

Because it's nothing to do with the government what a private company pays it's staff ,and what control the government have they have used in clawing some bonuses back or curbing others by putting pressure on the banks leaders

Because labour left us in the position where we could not afford the bloated monster it had created

see above

again down to labour and it's financial mis management

You just made that up ,please provide evidence to back up that statement

Mostly as a result of the cuts we need thanks to labour

The government make not one single penny out of any of the cut backs needed because labour made a right balls up of the economy

Then ask your labour buddies what they plan to do because at the moment they have not come up with one single answer

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

actually it was Thatcher who encouraged a lot of people onto the sick to get the unemployment figures down. It is just that it carried on since

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Hmm... Normally I would agree with you but I seem to remember I also thought that the then relatively youthful Gordon Brown would be an admirable candidate to fill the vacuum left by John Smith's untimely demise.

All of which goes to show how much my opinions are worth :D

Maybe but it could hardly be worse than the present Tory/Lib Dem coalition or Heaven forbid a Tory government :shocked:

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

I just want out of the EU and better treatment for the sick ie sack ATOS soon as that is sorted I can go back to my not caring much about it tbh

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Yeah me too :D

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Tell me what the rest of the parties offer

Tories - Crap
UKIP - rubbish
Lib Dem - pack of lies
Labour = just as bad.
I might try and start my own party.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

So are you saying that none of what you have just said has ever happened under your beloved Labour ????

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Arthur, figures from the Guardian, which isn't the Coalition's best friend...

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2013/03/88.jpg

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Mere details Hugh...

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Hugh

Arthur does not do facts :LOL:

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

but that damns the torries just as much as Labour does it not? the figures for the 90s are awfully high considering it was 20 years ago.

---------- Post added at 18:12 ---------- Previous post was at 18:10 ----------

them guys really should not smile when they pose with that case

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

Dave really does hate the unemployed. he doesn't seem to realise that his policies and actions are maybe what's losing him support.
he doesn't know whether the majority who didn't vote are unemployed.

he's showing clear signs of a disillusioned mentally retarded man.
That says it all about the mans mental state.
he mentioned work only because that's what this war of his is all about.
working vs the non working.
the man's a complete prat.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

The figures for the 90s are the result of our disastrous experiment with the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, fore-runner of the Euro and, to this day, the reason why we're neither in the Euro nor planning ever to be in the Euro. Exiting the ERM and getting the economy back on track was necessary but painful, but you can see from the trajectory of the deficit from 1993 onwards that Kenneth Clarke's management of the economy turned things round quickly. The swing from deficit to surplus continued through 1997, when Labour came to power, and continued for as long as Labour maintained its election pledge to stick with Tory spending plans. Once Brown started doing something else, of course, we were on our way to hell in a handcart.

Keynsian economics, which our leftie friends supposedly espouse, demands that you run a budget surplus in the good times in order to fund stimulus spending in the bad times. In the bad times, you spend your savings and, if necessary, run up a deficit by commissioning capital projects - new roads and railways, for example - which helps to keep the economy moving and provides stimulus for recovery.

Unfortunately Gordon Brown chose to run us into a deficit in the middle of a boom, all the while excusing his rash illl-judgment by claiming to have "ended the cycle of boom and bust" - remember that rhetoric? - naturally expecting everyone to believe that if there was never going to be another bust, it was less important to run a surplus during the boom which would allow us to salt away funds to combat the next recession.

Even more unfortunately, Brown's "boom" was fuelled by an all but uncontrolled Credit bubble which could never have been sustained. And worse again, Brown wasn't even running up a deficit on investments in infrastructure that could make the country more resilient in the event of a future recession. No. Gordon Brown spent all that money on expanding the public sector wage bill and on a massive extension of the welfare state, dishing out benefits including the child trust fund, which was even given to the richest families in the land, and child tax credits, likewise given in some measure even to the comparatively well off.

Gordon Brown has created a society in which almost everybody has a sense of entitlement to state largesse and an economy that lacks the resilience to generate the cash to pay for it.

That's what that graph tells you.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

The coalition cannot continue this country as a pawn, we need investments to bring jobs, and the attitude that Cameron gave after this kick in the nuts stank as far as l am concerned.

He is running this country along with his pal Osborne as a bank for the rich, he has NOT brought our one policy that will hit the rich, who can put money into the taxman.

They are running scared when people mention Mansion Tax, there are companies that are refusing to pay Tax that donates millions into the Tory party.
Cameron said it himself ' this is a protest vote' Senior MPs will be thinking something different, and l strongly believe that deep down there will be a challenge to Cameron before the Summer.

Voters are leaving the Tories in there droves and voting UKIP instead. I bet all Conservative Clubs tonight will be saying ' l wonder when he decides to walk, instead of being pushed'

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To such an extent that, even now, with the stark writing clearly on the wall, they continue to delude themselves that you can carry on spending what you don't have ad inifinitum. It'd be funny if it wasn't so dangerous.

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To the extent that Angela Eagle had the brass neck to try it again on QT last night, explaining that there is "bad spending" and "good spending" and insisting that we can still put things right if only we concentrate on the "good spending".

To coin one of Ed's own catchphrases, they just don't geddit ...

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

So what's HS2 exactly?

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A project that's going to cost about a billion a year over something like 30 years, and with very little spending at all this side of the 2015 election. In other words, a drop in the ocean.

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You could call it the missing link party...

---------- Post added at 20:57 ---------- Previous post was at 20:56 ----------

Yeah but you will be in Birmingham fifteen minutes earlier though :D

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Sadly, they know there are enough people out there who're sufficiently blinkered, stupid, naive, deluded and/or desperate to buy their hollow rhetoric in spite of everything they've done and the massive mess they were instrumental in creating.

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I'm still trying to work out why the good folk of Eastleigh are supposed to be so worried about immigration..It's not exactly ever been a place I think of being full of immigrants..Portsmouth and Southampton yes.Eastleigh? Nah!

http://www.migrantsrights.org.uk/blo...gh-mud-wrestle

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

:LOL:

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Even if their particular small area hasn't been unduly affected directly, perhaps they've seen how mass migration has changed other parts of the region and feel it's been for the worse.

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I think they are pretty much how my town is and we aren't that worried about immigrants.Least ways no one I talk to is that concerned.

No I think they don't trust the Tories but still do trust the local man even a Lib Dem.I see UKIP as a protest vote entirely.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

I'm sure immigration isn't the only determining factor for any right thinking person. Right now large protest voting for UKIP will also be evident. The big question is will it have the desired effect or will it continue into the general election and result in a significant number of UKIP seats.

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Well from what i have seen many libdems are seeing this as proof they are not finished in uk politics which i am not so sure of i think the libdems we're just the most palatable out of the lot until the general election is here when people tend to think a little more about their vote. As for ukip they have been and will continue to be the protest vote party i honestly cannot see them doing any better in the next general election then they did in the last.

What we did see is that tory support is not going up it is infact going down and it will only continue to go down as more and more of their policies hit home. Come the next election there is a very real chance of labour getting back in because despite what the tories are saying about how it's all working people are just not buying it. Add in that one minute gideon is to be judged on our creditr rating and then when it goes down he isn't peoople are just seeing the present government as no different to any of the last few useless governments we have had.

Our political system is broke we have too many professional politicians and not enough common sense locals getting elected far too many people don't have a true local mp they have someone sent to them from party hq who then moves in locally when they get elected but rarely if ever gives a stuff about true local matters or feelings. We need to elect local people into parliament and let that assortment of locals merge together to form a government how it used to be and whislt that might not be perfect it would be a hell of a lot better then what we get right now.

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

The Lib Dems are always strong in places they are already well established. It's quite difficult to draw any conclusions about a general election based on their showing in Eastleigh.

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Well said Rizzy :clap:

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My vote for UKIP will be because i want a referendum on leaving or staying in the EU, I cannot trust the conservatives to give us that referendum and lets face it Dave has already changed his mind and refused to give the vote he had previously promised, therefore he cannot be trusted to stand by his word.

So for anyone who wants a referendum on our postion in the EU there is only one course of action at the next election. VOTE UKIP

Re: Eastleigh by-election battle hots up
 

On Sky News, they Political Editor said that there could be a challenge for PM, as they party have now lost faith in Cameron and this could be done by next year.

Cameron is a loser, and the next by election could be in a strong Tory seat - if they lose that, then that will be it.