UK back in Recession
 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...-dip-recession

It's just come in, 0.2% contraction for the last quarter. The UK has re-entered recession.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Thats not good news at all.:(

Re: UK back in Recession
 

so the fuel panic buying didn't help then

Re: UK back in Recession
 

We'll have to put the prices up again on everything a bit more. and then give away a few more billions.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

That happened over a few days, so unlikely to have a noticeable effect on quarterly results.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Government must try something else now surely? Start some building projects, push for HS2 to be started as soon as possible.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

It's a must as far as i am concerened .HS2 is a possibility but isn't that a few years way from starting ? Whatever they do they need to go for something that needs a multitude of different types of companies to maximise the work created

Re: UK back in Recession
 

don't know how anyone is surprised by that with this rotten to core goverment

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Well America seems to have managed some growth, it's hard to judge if what they did would work here but the current strategy doesn't seem to be working.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

I need my waistline to contract by a few percent.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Best have Merv the Swerve crank up the printing presses again, clearly £325 billion created money isn't enough and we need more, after all it's working so well...

Main cause behind this is a big drop in construction, again. Construction should be the cure, not the disease.

Time for a massive cabinet reshuffle, bring in some people who actually spend some of their time in the real world.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

What can the government invest in? What could we build?

Re: UK back in Recession
 

More social housing? In London. So we don't have to send families to Stoke?

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Housing. I understand there are a few problems with supply and affordability especially in the south.

In the interim telling NIMBYs to properly shove it where the sun doesn't shine and completing planning reform rather than watering it down to appease the usual suspects would also be good.

Obviously neither is going to happen as things stand. The government are more interested in pandering to the buy to let brigade for their votes so continue to have them allowed to offset mortgage interest against rent for tax purposes while those on owner-occupier mortgages receive no such consideration and those paying already over the odds rents cover this loss of revenue from income tax.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

or a suggestion at cost cutting, stop paying housing benefit of 400 per week ?? then use that money on infastructure, scrap ALL foreign aid of all kinds, again spend the money on infastructure, i am quite sure 10+ billion could help stimulate the economy if spent wisely, like mentioned above HS2 would be a good start..

Re: UK back in Recession
 

The problem with telling the NYMBYs to shove it (which i agree with )is that they are traditionally conservative voters

Re: UK back in Recession
 

I'm not too sure about HS2, for one I don't think the savings in time on rail journeys is that significant. I think we need more housing than a shaving of 10 mins on the journey from Euston to Birmingham.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Good find with the HSBC analyst's view on QE. Thanks. In a world where there is no such thing as a free lunch we paid for QE with a cliff face drop on the value of Sterling against major currency pairs. We will pay that price ad infinitum as the extra paper issued devalues just like a company issuing new shares. Imports such as fuel and energy which are traded in dollars have taken a hit which costs everyone of us, big time.

If there was any element of doubt that we are in a secular recession which almost invariably is compromised of two more common cyclical recessions with an anaemic recovery in between, it is now confirmed. Historically the second down cycle in secular recessions highlights and compounds the political folly attempted to ameliorate the first and second parts and forces an often extremely unpalatable solution.

Re-arranging the deck chairs (cabinet re-shuffle) will resolve nothing because the concept of trying the Canadian model for recovery a global downturn could never work and will not. The flaw in thinking was wrong in the last election run up, is wrong now and will continue to be wrong and new players, playing the same tune will not help.

The think, sadly that due to the folly of the out of touch rich boys at the helm, it will be a long time before Britain is great again.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

I think they have hence the problems some councils in london are facing .Although i think that is more down to greedy private landlords dribbling at the prospect of short term lets for the olympics and then keeping prices high after the olympics have finished


Quite sure it would,we could always ask the IMF for the 10 billion we just gave them back paying interest on it of course

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Either going all the way with it, heavy austerity accompanied by tax cuts for all to both pump demand and supply, or increasing investment alongside tax rises was probably the way forward.

What we got instead was a severe reduction in investment, higher welfare bills, higher taxes, high real inflation (not whatever magical numbers the government produce). Government front loaded tax increases and investment reduction while back loading austerity measures, meaning we got the private sector contraction from tax increases immediately,

Exports have risen to non-EU nations but it's not close to enough to offset the reduction in demand at home and the cash hoarding the private sector the government are so horny over have been doing.

The only real demand at home has been debt driven buy to let.

The famed triple-A is a complete wash as my thread said. The only reason the UK has cheap gilts is because the BoE is buying them all, this is only going to continue despite increasing evidence that it is now ineffectual and the evidence for its initial effect is debatable. These purchases are the only reason the triple-A is there, and while the government allows the people to be rinsed by tax increases and real wage decreases due to high inflation and a cash hoarding private sector there is only one way for things to go. Trickle-down is nonsense, the evidence says the top merely use the increased cash to further increase the income gap through increased influence, the government has pursued a 'trickle-down lite' model with the worst of everything, taking money from middle class and below and handing it to business who, rather than investing it in the UK, invest it elsewhere or hoard it.

Absolute failure by an out of touch cabinet living in the Westminster bubble, brought up in privilege, with virtually no-one with any exposure to the real world.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

As an observation this is only the first estimate - it could change and may turn out that it is not as bad, but it could be worse.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

'Trickle-down' economics is a scam anyway. We've been told for years of the benefits of giving the rich tax-breaks in order to encourage them to provide but jobs but wealth disparity continues to grow. Instead the rich use the tax-breaks which they paid for to invest in hedge funds and hoard money.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

It doesn't really matter whether it is worse or better as the criteria for acknowledging a recession are contrived for political purposes.

I look at charts which show growth on a running basis and they show that for lost growth, a long period of above par growth must ensue to negate the loss.

The anaemic recovery from the last recession has not mitigated the loss during that time and again we are below a positive level which adds the losses from non recovery.

The actual performance of UK PLC in terms of time for return to true growth is worse than during the depression era of the 30's and with the ridiculous coalition policies I see nothing more than furious digging whilst in a big hole.

My enduring concern is the arrogance with which the rich kids at the helm press on with plan A which patently doesn't work and stubbornly refuse to even acknowledge let alone review a catalogue of errors.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

What do you think should be done as an alternative to plan A?

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Plan B of course..... :D

(as long as that doesn't involve more of New Labour's 'prudence' and governance)

My feeling is we're in between a rock and a hard place and nobody really knows what they're doing and where this is all heading. They're flying by the seats of their pants and point scoring while we and the EU get deeper into the mire.

Just to be perfectly clear, however, I have a great deal more sympathy for the current incumbents of Nos 10 & 11, who inherited a right royal mess, than I do for those who presided over its creation and allowed it to get totally out of control. For them to be pointing fingers now is a bit rich.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Yes it is, doesn't change that they've taken a bad situation and made it worse out of political expediency.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Loving all the inverted snobbery.......

Re: UK back in Recession
 

I'm thinking it might be time to vote for........















...... A single world government and radical reform..... :erm::erm:


:D

Re: UK back in Recession
 

I don't think if Labour had been re-elected we would be in a Greece style situation. That seems rather drastic and alarmist. No one has made a convincing argument that would have been the case. We're not part of the Euro and we have a considerably better debt-to-GDP ratio.

We don't know what would have happened if Labour had won, they didn't. The Conservatives won and the economy is now their responsibility.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Naw!!! :bsmack:

No great surprise, the only thing that confused me is why some people are so shocked. :confused:

Re: UK back in Recession
 

True. Putting the mess right is their responsibility but they can't be blamed for its creation any more than the last lot can be excused. What's needed now is constructive consensus - not point scoring. This crisis is as serious as a major war and bringing down the govt. only to replace them with those who got us into this mess would, IMHO, spell very big trouble indeed. What we need from our politicians most of all now is leadership and putting their personal ambitions second to the national good.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Not a Greece situation. Maybe a Spain or Italy one though with no sign of improvement in sight.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Well the last lot can't be exclusively blamed for the mess either considering this was a recession that hit a lot of the developed world. The Conservatives were just as happy to blame them then as Labour are now. No one is going to buy calls for a truce on point scoring whilst proclaiming that the current government cannot be blamed and the last lot cannot be excused.

Labour were to blame for not taking steps to reduce the debt before the recession making the situation worse. The Conservatives are currently to blame for failing to deliver on their objectives to deliver growth back to the UK, they have been in power for two years now, how long can they keep blaming the previous government? That said the current government is dealing with a sluggish economy, the Euro-Zone crisis, and a country which has a large portion of it's economic output delivered by one of the sectors which was badly hit by the succession of crises that have occurred over the last few years. So it's perhaps understandable why we're having trouble.

However, I can't really buy the demands for people to understand the complexity of the job the current government has been given whilst continue to peddle the notion that the previous government were not also presented with a massive problem and no clear way to deal with it.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

The difference is that New Labour inherited a good economy and had 13 years with a huge majority to do whatever needed to be done. This lot have had 2 years in coaltion during a crisis to put it right. As for one lot blaming the last lot, I think you'll find Labour were blaming Thatcher and Major for one thing and another the entire time they were in government. It's clear to me who's more culpable and who's had the harder task in office.

That's not an argument for more of the same, by the way, just a fact that some people seem to have forgotten. As I've already said, we need our leaders to forget their petty rivalries and personal ambitions for now and get on with putting things right, not simply undermining those who're tasked with the unenviable job for purely political reasons.

If we're not careful I feel we're in real danger of our politicians and indeed the media, 'talking' us into a worse situation than we currently face.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

I think you've just summed up Balls' 'strategy' without realising it.. :D

Watched Andrew Neil giving David Willetts a very hard time re the economy at lunchtime. Of course the obligatory Labour attendee happily joined in the attack until Neil turned on her and repeatedly exposed her total unwillingness/inability to explain what her party would do. I think that just about sums up the opposition's credibility when it comes to 'Plan B'. All I ever hear from them is their plans for spending the proceeds of a bankers tax - cash they seem to have 'spent' more than once...

Re: UK back in Recession
 

It's been coming for the last 6 months.

George Osborne: "There will be no double dip recession in Britain" November 2011

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/286 ... in-Britain

Idiot.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Oh well it give companies an excuse to shead workers.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Birmingham isn't the end in itself. The aim is to have the line go all the way to Manchester and then up to Scotland. Over those distances it makes lots of sense and could take a lot of pressure off Heathrow by lessening domestic demand. But none of that can happen if the first stretch between B'ham and London isn't built first.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

I have no doubt that putting the two Eds in Downing Street right now would make things horribly, horribly worse.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Wait a second, are you seriously equating the UK, public sector debt around the 60% mark pre-crisis along with all the rest of the economic differences with Greece whose PSND was nearly 100% higher?

You've been swallowing the Conservative line that we'd be doomed and in the same position as Greece. Austerity has been minimal in the UK, tax rises have formed the majority of the deficit reduction and even then the reduction is pretty modest. No-one denies the need for cuts, what the coalition have done is a complete disaster all around.

The only reason we have AAA is the Bank of England creating and spending £325 billion on government debt. The Tories and Lib Dems are basically lying when they claim the government's interest rates reflect confidence. The only reason our government's interest rates aren't as high as Spain's, which they should be given they have lower debt and run a lower deficit than us, is that the BoE can buy government debt and have been buying it by the billion.

---------- Post added at 18:57 ---------- Previous post was at 18:53 ----------

Without the £325 billion of QE we would be in a Spain situation. Their economy is by many metrics healthier than ours.

---------- Post added at 19:04 ---------- Previous post was at 18:57 ----------

The government can either pay out on welfare or pay out employing people on infrastructure projects, such as housing, and enjoying the benefits of the infrastructure spend, in the case of housing it becoming cheaper and people having more money to spend in the shops and invest.

It's a balancing act, this government has shackled growth through tax rises and shackled it again through cutting investment.

---------- Post added at 19:05 ---------- Previous post was at 19:04 ----------

I entirely agree that Labour are abysmal, however what relevance does this have to how badly the coalition are handling the economy?

They're the ones in charge, what Labour would do isn't actually the issue as they won't be in power until 2015, and it seems extremely likely that they will be in power in 2015. That we have the worst opposition in memory doesn't excuse the government being completely crap.

---------- Post added at 19:06 ---------- Previous post was at 19:05 ----------

How?

No growth, no jobs, real incomes squeezed, taxes increased, I don't see a hell of a lot of room for things to be further degraded.

---------- Post added at 19:11 ---------- Previous post was at 19:06 ----------

Going by the constant adjustments to the expected deficit the current plan isn't sticking to costings either. It's already worse than the original Darling plan which Osborne and co so derided.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

It doesn't and wasn't intended to. It was a reminder to the increasing number of people out there who seem to have very conveniently forgotten how utterly inept they were in either causing or presiding over the problems we now face. It was a reminder that Bliar and his cronies had 13 years to screw things up and that, given what's happened in the Eurozone since, expecting this govt. to have reversed all of that is entirely unrealistic. Make no mistake, I certainly don't think the current bunch have all the answers or haven't made mistakes, but I'd rather have them in power right now than Miliband's marauders who seem to have little idea what to do except rubbish their opposition.

For me this isn't about party politics. As I've already stated, I feel the situation we're in is so serious that we need the best brains and politicians of all parties to put their destructive rivalries aside and work together to sort this mess out. I still think the coalition has a chance of doing that but what's for sure is that the other realistic option of seeing Labour back in power would be a calamity.

Come 2015 I won't be blindly voting for Conservative, Lib Dem or anyone else - I never have done and never will. I'll be voting according to who I feel has the best chance of stopping us plunging over the precipice, if we haven't done so already. I'll be doing that even if it boils down to choosing the lesser of two evils, which it probably will sadly.

---------- Post added at 20:19 ---------- Previous post was at 20:07 ----------

Yes, and I guarantee he'd have missed his targets by even more than the Con-Dems have missed theirs.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

That's a brave guarantee to make given the growth envisaged by it was based around quite different considerations.

---------- Post added at 21:16 ---------- Previous post was at 21:15 ----------

We'll never know, will we?

---------- Post added at 21:17 ---------- Previous post was at 21:16 ----------

What precipice? Things aren't nearly as critical as the Conservatives would have us believe, and their austerity measures aren't close to enough to save us from them if things are as bad as they try and convince us.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

But this is it. There is a acknowledgement of the circumstances that make it difficult for the current government to turn around the economy but the last government seem not to have that same luxury. Labour had a global recession to deal with just as the Conservatives have the lingering after-effects and the Euro crisis to deal with.

I don't think Governments can easily turn around an economy. It's a supertanker that they are trying to turn around by throwing rocks at it. They are at the mercy of events just as anyone else.

Wasn't Darling's plan similar to the US plan? Because their economy is turning around, albeit slowly.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Is it just me, or is -0.2% (that's -2/1000) not something to get too depressed about?

Why this obsession with endless growth?

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Brave it may be but I'd stand by it and neither of us are ever going to find out so we'll have to agree to disagree eh.

The precipice I'm referring to is the Eurozone not the UK right now. Our position is far from good but thankfully not as dire as some other countries and that may be as much due to luck as judgement. I don't think the recent growth figures justify the rhetoric that's being bandied about but I do think that, in combination with what's going on elsewhere in Europe (which we cannot separate ourselves from), we're on the edge of a financial abyss. Time will tell and I hope I'm wrong.

---------- Post added at 22:30 ---------- Previous post was at 22:24 ----------

Labour's profligacy, waste, ineptitude and gross regulatory failures exposed the UK to an extent which needn't have been the case. They gambled that borrowing and spending as if there was no tomorrow would keep them in power wich is all they were interested in. Sadly for us it did and thereby made our economy even more susceptible to the other, world, events you refer to.

The US is far from out of the woods in spite of the billions Obama's thrown at it.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

It did but it's all a bit vague. Regulatory failures is the most difficult as these were international organisations operating all over the place. There were few calls from tighter regulation and few from the Conservatives in opposition. An attempt to increase regulation at a time when banks were rolling in money would have been seen as counter-productive and hostile to business and they would have equally been attacked for that. There is quite a lot of hindsight there. I agree they should have cut the deficit and the debt whilst the money was coming in however.

At the end of the day these are the reasons Labour was voted out. Labour's incompetence doesn't excuse the Conservatives/Liberal Democrats from failing to improve the economy. They are now the Government. That Labour are perceived to be worse is also not an excuse, just means we have a poor choice at the next election.

It's been two years. The honeymoon is over.

Seems to be getting better month on month however. We've showed no progress at all. The car industry is getting better over there as well.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Thw FSA a chocolate teapot and eventually admitted their failures. Nobody's saying the UK could have been immune from what was going on elsewhere but nobody other than the govt. of the time was culpable for the lack of regulation given that they'd had the time and the power to intervene. Brown was warned about the problems brewing and chose to ignore the bad news and keep on spending.

As for the US well I doubt if they were as encumbered by EU membership etc. as we are they'd be performing any better than the UK.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

It's not EU membership, it's the fact our banks and other industries are tied up with the rest of Europe that's the problem. We're exposed to their debt problems. We're not part of the Euro so the only way that harms us is the aforementioned exposure to the debt if the currency goes under.

We should look to see if anything they did could work here instead of continuing with the same plan that has done squat for the last year and a bit.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

You know what I starting to believe something very sinister about all this.

I watched this 3 1/2 about banks the money men Its long listen but its frightening how they played governments.

Now initially BOE very powerful ugly private bank despite onus sounded government run. Now we can assume after banking act back in public hands. Some serious stuff on how banking works.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9wYu...eature=related

I starting to think its neither fault going out on limb here as now seeing very a nasty picture what going off.

If we seeing indicators power banks posses IMF call we going into credit crunch 2. So the Quantative Easing from osbourne would not work as BOE has control of spending it.

http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16212857

I will say this it wont matter who in power neither will be able to rectify it. As the whole thing setup which stinks.

Boom or bust is preogative the banks those who own the banks secret owners. Governments and us the people are there puppets.

We been duped bigtime until we all collectively wake up including politians. United world take the money men on and the banks. The sooner we get control back control the economy the better.

Recession is simply banks not lending, the booms created when banks release funds. Who when decides this its like a chess game some day it going to be checkmate. The money men make money when it happens as repossesions of business/housing happens. Same with wars they make profits from countries borrowing for a war effort.

They played the governments to get control of all governments. I dont trust advice which is effectively telling us to crash uk economy. As austerity will end up doing. There great saying if in doubt do nothing. That should been the case what was paramount was keep jobs make sure economy ticked.

So can we trust IMF anymore certainly bond holders who cracking whips shafting countries. If you dont think ultimate goal power who runs greece. The bond holders those pushing austerity to break countries knowing full well while they own banks freeze lending economy suffers. Who will be the unlisted secret names who got the banks lets have educated guess those who own the bonds the top 1%?.

Take it further down the road within 20 years banks/money men will control every country in the land as one by one they force there game on us all. Greed dictatorship no voting countries will not have Presidents, Prime Ministers, senates or MP's. We will have CEO's and board directors.

Its about world domination. They started the ball rolling when they served us crisis hoping to dupe governments into bailouts.

Governments will just tinker its not them who will sort the mess out it dont matter if your colour blue or red. Debt wont cease as debt there to control us by banks.

They know governments got to keep economy moving to do it goto use money buy getting into debt especially if banks deliberately not lending to businesses.

It might be crazy to think this maybe some posters might think its daft but it does add up. Tell me I am wrong as would love it to be the case.

Re: UK back in Recession
 

You do seem to have a penchant for conspiracy theories....

Re: UK back in Recession
 

Believe me want it wrong but watch the vid he actually predicted all this that was 15 years before it happened.

All the I's and T's do add up now what there end game anybody guess I think its global ownership of countries. Why we all collectively being told to crash all the economies. When governments went to bail banks out they gave them oportunity. What purpose does it serve who gains Hugh.

So how did he predict something nobody saw coming. If those names got nothing hide why not reveal them. Why are the protected by royal charter.