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Virgin should buy TiVo...
....because at this rate, the shares will be cheap enough: :erm:
http://www.contactmusic.com/news.nsf...g-loss_1204982 Quote:
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Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
Oh dear !!!! No wonder there giving it away free LOL :-(
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...984989738.html |
Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
They seem to be concentrating on their new integrated stb cable deals in UK, Sweden etc.
Not a good last quarter for them though. |
Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
This is a good read:
http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...-is-stuck.aspx and check out this from the bottom of the page: Tivo has been fighting for years to get what is rightfully there's IMO. TiVo has said it will be entitled to about $300 million in damages and contempt sanctions through July 1, 2009, and it will seek more cash for infringement after that date. That’s in addition to $100 million Dish paid TiVo after the original appeals court ruling. "Dish may have to pay TiVo more than $2 billion to settle the case 2009-1374, according to Craig Moffett, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in New York. If Dish were required to silence all its DVRs, it would face a worst-case cost of $3 billion, he said" |
Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
You would hope that with the various deals which TiVo have made with European Pay-TV platforms, they should get some money in.
On the flip side, they're being sued in the states by Microsoft, Motorola and Dish Network. If - god forbid - TiVo went bust....what would happen to the development of VM TiVo? |
Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
TiVo also saw further erosion in its subscriber base. In the most-recent quarter, the company lost 223,000 subscribers, compared with 131,000 lost a year earlier. Its total customer base is 21% smaller than it was a year earlier and stands at about two million.
223,000 customers is a lot of people when there subscriber base is now only 2 million especially in a country the size of the USA. |
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they are all suing each other by the looks of it :D
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This is a good read: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/mark...tent=D9LN588O2 Looks like the cases against Dish Network and Echostar will be key, TiVo seem confident of winning because their planning to invest in R & D. |
Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
It would be awful if TiVo went bust, but in the US the insolvency laws are a lot better. Even Telewest and ntl: went bust all those years ago, but got Chapter11 protection.
I hope TiVo turn it around. |
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Not as bad as with Mobile Phones. Look at this for who's suing who and for what http://blog.mobiles.co.uk/wp-content...0/lawsuits.png :D |
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TiVo vs EchoStar Microsoft vs TiVo Motorola vs TiVo Virgin should just wait, quietly, until they're sued the heck out of each other. And then, buy. All of them! :D |
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Apple are suing....well, everyone as well.
With all this legal action, its amazing any of these tech companies get anything done. |
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Makes you realise not only sky break the rules.
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VM: We want 3 tuners. TiVo: We can give you 2. VM: 3. Now. Ish. TiVo: Erm......ok. |
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I am going to sue them all as they are making it too expensive for me to have all the gadgets:erm::D:D:D:D
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My lawyers are looking over various documents related to Virgin, Microsoft, Apple, IBM and Sky, and they will be making an announcement shortly. ;)
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But my word all of this dosen't exactly inspire confidence. I always knew Tivo was a very, very niche product in the US but those subscriber churn numbers are absolutely dire, if they don't shore them up quickly that company will surely go bust. I wonder why it has become so unpopular, the recession perhaps it is quite expensive there? |
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Networks have their own PVRs now, people prefer one box solutions. Cable cards can make tivo a one box solution, but, in the past you lost access to interactive content. It's still a nightmare to get a cable card from some providers, and the move to SDV also hurt tivo. Basically, consumers want to get their boxes from their providers, no hassle, everything works. Hence why tivo is now working on providing boxes for providers. |
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The biggest of them all Comcast does. Those churn figures are truly awful, no company can survive losing 21% of it's customer base in a year so I really hope the new alliances in Europe help them. |
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Lets hope they don't go out of business will be no support for the box then.
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Or maybe it just dosen't offer enough over and above a standard PVR, this has been my concern all along that most people just want their favourite channels and the ability to record them. I just don't think Joe Bloggs needs or cares for most of it's features really but that's just my view, I hope i'm wrong. |
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http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/broadcas...rvice.html?rss |
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But you cant polish a turd, there is no way of putting a gloss on those numbers. They are disastrous. Secretly I would guess VM must be most concerned. |
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In the US they've got Tivo an ReplayTV which offer similar functionality, the ability to stream video to/from a PVR is not novel, and their entire market is much more mature - you can setup a PC that with a card in it that can give you full control over your recording if you so wish.. it's standardised.
I wonder how much of that churn is Cableco related - it would only take a couple of the bigger ones to switch to a different system and they could lose huge numbers of customers. OTOH I also think Tivo has lost its way somewhat.. I was pondering today the comparison between the S1 and the VM box (technically an S4). It should be eyewateringly good by now but it just manages to be 'as good'. Way better than anything we've seen before in the UK, but not what I expect from 10 years of development. However it's the only game in town.. Breaking away from the glorified VCRs that we've settled for in the UK has been a long time coming. |
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And those ghastly figures could sort of bear that out, most people are obviously happy with a standard PVR, if they have a PVR at all. |
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Crunch gear seem to agree with your thoughts
http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/03/03...-new-premiere/ http://www.i4u.com/34675/tivo-premie...ement-new-tivo |
Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
I think the one-box solution and integrating in to platforms is the way forward. it's an expensive add on if its on top of your sat or cable bill and as Mersey70 say's, it could be the recession hitting hard in the US also... it's around £12 for TiVo stand-alone in the US.
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I sort of agree DF however not sure whether switchers from other tv providers will be happy to pay a fee each month even at just £3.00 a month , don't forget we pay enough already to either VM or Sky.
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It has all the bells and whistles, menus look great, search options seem wonderful. The trouble is on the most basic function of a PVR, recording which is surely the reason people want a PVR it simply isn't as clever as a Sky+ box because it has no dynamic EPG. I love V+ as it does the job, im no techie and it's dead simple, ok no dynamic EPG but nor has Tivo. Lego brick graphics and all that but it's simple, it does what I want and need it to. I really have no interest watching YouTube on the telly and I reckon i'm a pretty Joe Bloggs sort of customer. And on the other side Joe Bloggs presses record on Sky+ and forgets about it and if things change your box changes too and I am pretty sure that's all he cares about with his box, watching TV and a dead simple PVR that does the hard work for him. That would have been a selling point to me but Tivo hasn't got it, it seems to concentrate on peripheral features too much for me. ---------- Post added at 22:44 ---------- Previous post was at 22:43 ---------- Quote:
A standard PVR is probably enough for what average joe wants, or needs. I know Tivo has never been mainstream but that churn rate is diabolical and must be of huge concern at Virgin Towers. |
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The lack of Dynamic EPG will be a bigger concern for sports fans as live games can finish late for all manner of reasons. V+ has done me a few times on ESPN HD Monday night football NFL.
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Plus customers from Spanish cable operator ONO and from Canal Digital (Nordic countries). No wonder their focusing on supplying software to other platforms with Quarterly results like today's. ---------- Post added at 23:05 ---------- Previous post was at 23:02 ---------- Quote:
The lack of a TiVo at my home is another issue, but that's for another thread. |
Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
When you look at US subscriber figures , it tells you how big a deal with VM this is for TIVO.
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Remember that only 1/4 of the current customer base even have V+ 5 years after it was introduced so it's safe to say a large proportion of that figure will not be PVR customers so I doubt they will expect to pay a subscription because they are forced to use a new platform. And even the most optimistic of us know that it will surely be some years before everyone moves over to Tivo. I agree it's a smart move for them to look to Europe, it's clearly on it's way out over there as people prefer cheaper, more mainstream equipment. |
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Go on the Comcast website and try to find tivo. I don't mean search for it, just browse through the site like you would if you were signing up and see if you can find anything to do with a Tivo STB from them. I can't. If I didn't know they offered it then I wouldn't find out from their website. There's literally nothing linking to the tivo page from their main pages. Their DVR page makes no mention of it. If you didn't know they offered tivo you'd swear they didn't. That's the problem tivo are facing, the cable co's are pushing their own hardware ahead of it, and people just go with the standard options. |
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39% is the figure of HD customers is it not (including V HD) DF will confirm or correct me but he said upto a few months ago VM had just over 1m V+ customers, around 1/4 of it's customer base. I don't think VM are in the business of just giving away endless Tivo boxes, they are not Sky. |
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Things aren't great in OZ
http://m.smh.com.au/digital-life/com...208-1al3j.html http://smarthouse.com.au/Home_Cinema...Boxes/W6P5H4J6 |
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Yes, you're right, I suspect 39% includes all HD boxes, not just PVRs. |
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Actually with all this bad news for Tivo maybe they will give loads away to get the subscriber numbers going? Sky Digital only got really popular when they started giving the kt away! |
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We'll have to see. |
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I kind of agree with this guys statement:
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http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...-is-stuck.aspx |
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It's a bit of a David v Goliath battle but of course David won! It's rapid decline is very concerning though, it's virtually defunct in Australia and it dosen't even have a subscription fee there, it seems some retailers simply thought it was out of date. |
Re: Virgin should buy TiVo...
Can someone please clarify how VM intend to migrate its whole customer base to Tivo? What is a person doesn't want to pay the sub? Will prices go up? Also M+ and L have to pay for PVR so will the be obliged to pay PVR plus Tivo?
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£3 sub is for premier service only I expect, when VM plan to put Tivo UI software on the Cisco HD only box (which as mentioned at the initial launch of Tivo), I don't expect any Tivo monthly subscription at all. That is what I expect at least.
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Do we even know exactly what the £3 sub is for and who is actually getting the wonga ?
i mean are VM taking the £3 and passing the whole sum to tivo or just part of it or have VM already paid up front and are clawing back that investment is the £3 for the EPG data or the PVR functionality or for VoD ... dont think anyone actually has explained in clear precise language exactly what you get for £3 a month (probably rising year on year but thats my speculation) the only function the full tivo has over a standard VHD upgraded to tivo software is surely just the PVR and longer 7+day EPG and auto suggestion downloads to the box HDD as VoD will still be available on a standard box i assume the fog doesnt get any thinner the longer we are kept waiting for clear concrete information |
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Perhaps the points you raise are the reason Tivo seems to be bombing around the world, I don't know. It would appear you pay the fee for the extra functionality and to that end I would guess Tivo (or their provders) are funded to keep the system going. But for me there lies the problem, what are you exactly paying an ongoing fee for? I really hope I am wrong (and I accept the model in the US is different) but I genuinely cannot see swathes of people, be they here, the US or Australia paying for extra functionality when they probably don't really require it, even £3 a month. There is no fee for Tivo in Australia and people still seem happy with their standard PVR's but again it's a different model but make no mistake, the model VM are using has been in place for years in the US too (albeit with more expensive ongoing subs) and those subscribers are taken into account with the 21% loss of their customer base. Cable customers there on a whole seem happy with what we know as V+ and I don't believe the subscrption amount matters much, it's the principal. I completely get people paying extra for content but for the life of me I cannot see joe bloggs paying for something that (on the whole) V+ does anyway. Sky sussed that years ago and canned the Sky+ charge. I personally consider the HD charge quite a different scenario as that fee is for content, I get that. This is one thing I will be delighted to be proven wrong on but those figures don't lie, never have I known a company to survive who loses 21% of their customers in just a year when that is on top of a massive drop the year before unless they systematically change their offer and pricing model. Or win their court battles! |
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Tivo's fundamental problem is they don't really do anything special.
Sky ripped of Tivo pretty quickly. And you can get umpteen freeview PVRs around that do what the Tivo does. Non of this new web stuff is their patents. I even doubt if their search function patents are all that either. How they ever thought "being able to search by actor" was patentable i'll never know. It's hardly by the definition of something that is patentable a novel non obvious step forward in technology. |
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I would expect that VM have a long term contract with TiVo, that is complicated and has many different charges and levels. I would expect TiVo to want some guaranteed minimum revenue, and VM to have hedged their risk on how many they will sell by agreeing a tiered charge to TiVo, the more boxes they sell, the more TiVo get. The key point is that at present, VM correctly assume that there are enough people willing to pay a £3 per month premium to get the TiVo service. At the moment, VM only sell one package of TiVo, one 1TB TiVo box, only available if you take XL TV. I'm sure VM will offer different packages and bundles, and eventually different boxes. But they are not doing that at the moment. |
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Well let's wait and see what happens with all these court cases. I know V+ is clunky but it does what it says on the tin. And of course you can search on an Actors name now, so long as it appears in the synopsis. But are features like that going to sway people when they know they have to pay extra for it?, I genuinely doubt it but I will be thrilled to be proven wrong, but all those people who have canned it around the world who have had access to Tivo for years surely cannot be wrong, for whatever reason. The only features that is of any interest to me is that you can record from the buffer. Would I pay extra for that, I am afraid not. I might be interested if it had dynamic EPG but it hasn't, you have to pad just like you do with the good old legoland V+. Like I say I completely get people paying for a film or getting the sports switched on for a month but I don't get paying for features that I genuinely don't believe most people have ever even craved. I don't remember if I entered the free draw, if I did and was lucky enough to win I would certainly be happy to give it a go and in a year might change my mind, but knowing myself as I do I seriously doubt it. And I would say I am a very Joe Bloggs sort of customer. I just get home, have dinner, get on the sofa and watch TV like most people. And hopefully not miss the end of any recordings. I don't really need a box to tell me what I like, especially when it was me who told it what I like in the first place. That's what my brain is for and I will set my planner myself accordingly, even I am not that lazy and I doubt most are either. |
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Pardon my ignorance but how would VM migrate customers from M+ and L that do not have PVR subs to Tivo? I thought the DVR was a fundamental feature of Tivo? Or are they just going to have a skeleton Tivo service on STB's on lower tier packages with no recording capability?
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Could TIVO's problems be other companies offerings are just as good
http://m.engadget.com/default/articl...sic&postPage=1 http://www.t3.com/news/sky-ipad-app-unveiled?=45807 |
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http://www.tivo.com/products/source/...ctv/index.html http://support.directv.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/77 so it's not all doom and gloom as it may seem... TiVo has a lot going for it... they need to settle those lawsuits too! :) |
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I merely think their boxes do everything that most people want them to, they simply do not require the features Tivo offers and therefore dont want to pay for them either. Think 50mb and 100mb broadband, the take up is currently limited because most people simply do not currently require such services, or are prepared to pay for them. Just my opinion though. |
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This is where TiVo's future should be, let the platforms make the STB's then licence/manage the software. |
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And any features that are unique are probably not needed by the average subscriber and certainly not at a price. The shocking churn figures would indicate this, to me anyway. Smallworld (the little cable co in Scotland/Northern England) are launching a new 1 TB box soon that has many of Tivo's features including YouTube and also Flickr and Shoutcast with 45,000 radio stations, an excellent feature and with more to come. If they can do it imagine what the US cablecos can come up with, the US is their bread and butter but I think they are smart to move here given those numbers. Their best hope is those court cases, I hope they win if they deserve to. http://www.smallworldcable.com/Boxes...ld-HD--1TB-Box. ---------- Post added at 13:33 ---------- Previous post was at 13:32 ---------- Quote:
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They do need a change of fortune in the US though. That churn rate isn't healthy! :eek: |
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The churn rate is much more than unhealthy, it is the stuff on bankruptcy when you only have just over 2 million customers to start with, they lost 131,000 in the same quarter a year before so the churn is getting far, far worse. They have lost well over 20% of their total customer base in a year, it's staggering. There must be a reason for it, I would imagine the same reasons will apply here. Until it is the de facto platform here I sadly think it will struggle but genuinely hope I am totally wrong. I also hope they win their cases if they are justified thugh, the last thing Sky's competitors needs is another dead duck. |
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As long as VM have Escrow rights to the Tivo software build on the Cisco box, then there really shouldn't be an issue here. Tivo may be getting a bumpy ride in the USA due to their past Cable provider independance I guess, but they seem to be trying to address this now.
I notice from the fiercecable link posted earlier that the revenue loss wasn't quite as bad, so P&L losses are one thing, business revenues and cash in particular are another; see statement below. "For now, TiVo reported a net loss of $34.4 million compared to $10 million on revenues that were down to $41.4 million from $45.3 million last year." Update: Just found the results statement on Yahoo, worth a read: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TiVo-R....html?x=0&.v=1 |
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My guess would be that the UK partnership with VM would be very lucrative as all Tivo are doing here is technology they already have. |
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Nevertheless the numbers are awful overall. You don't get your rating changed from 'hold' to 'sell' for nothing. Let's all hope the move to Europe is the tonic the company needs because it's looks like they need growth from somewhere other than it's home market. Fingers crossed. ---------- Post added at 14:19 ---------- Previous post was at 14:17 ---------- Quote:
But it's technology that seems to be getting rejected elsewhere in favour of cheaper kit. Not just in the US but Australia too. We'll see. |
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That's true and IMHO I'm surprised a company like Tivo actually survived this long considering it hasn't done too much to update its product, which wasn't all the useful to the average guy in the first place.
But in the UK the situation is different. They will probably have more customers here than they have in the US as VM's plans mean we VM customers will eventually not have a choice as to whether or not we actually want the Tivo. The service over here isn't the same as the US as the stb isn't by them but still it should be lucrative for them and they also have potential to expand its range of services. |
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They could have come up with an answer to replace the ageing Liberate middleware and it would have been more then enough for most customers and as it's in well over 100m STB's (includng Sky's) they must be doing something right. Tivo just seems expensive, bloated and provides features most of us couldn't care less about. |
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I wonder if some of these free VM TIVO boxes have been supplied with TIVO money to try and help take up in light of their dire US subscriber figures.
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I wouldnt look too much into TiVo's position in the US, its very different to the commercial deals it has with VM and other US providers. TiVo is a direct reseller of cable boxes in the US, but cable cards are required to use the service which is extra cost. Also, no providers will allow TiVo to use the Cableco's VOD services so unless they have another cable box from their provider they will only get the standard TiVo services which makes it a very niche service.
Other providers are starting to sign up TiVo to provide bespoke PVR software (Virgin Media, RCN) which supplements existing services like VOD so very different to having a TiVo box, say with Time Warner, where you would only get Live TV and the TiVo functions. US providers are forcing people into taking their own PVR equipment (plus rental charges) as they will get a complete service compared to TiVo. I believe TiVo will slowly exit the consumer market in the US and only offer commercial resale of software to providers, like the current VM deal. |
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Read this about TIVO on comcast
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-9956012-1.html Interesting the comcast TiVo service costs $2.95 similar charge to the VM one http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb...d.php?t=417235 |
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I understand and agree with some of what you say, however I don't think you lose that many customers so quickly without having some sort of a problem with your product. It can't all be the cableco's fault, I don't accept that. Let's hope they get their act together. |
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As TiVo get weaker, Virgin gets stronger:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11031...lume-vmed.html Interesting. ;) |
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Personally I had never heard of it before VM said the were introducing it. |
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And as it only has 2 million customers worldwide after around 10 years it probably isn't that well known at all. You would probably agree that the term 'Sky+' is part of common language these days, even if the PVR people have isn't actually a Sky box, i.e. 'i'll Sky+ it', I have even said it myself as I know that people will know what I mean. If I said 'V+ it' they probably wouldn't know what I meant unless they were with VM. |
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I think it was mentioned quite a few times in Friends as well.
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And in King of Queens
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That's an excellent proposal and if one day VM implement something similar I would be happy to buy the kit. |
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I think it is safe to say if you gathered a group of average non tecchie types the majority wouldn't have heard of it. But once they advertise it and more and more people get it and talk about it then that will soon change. Let's remember even Apple only had a relatively small group of customers and exposure here until that little used product the i-pod was launched. I knew that would never catch on he he! |
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When was the last time you heard some one say "I'll i-pod that".
Not quite there yet. :) |
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