Who do you think will win the election?
 

As a parallel thread to the voting intentions (http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...d.php?t=27772), I thought it would be interesting to find out who everybody thought would win the election on Thursday, rather than who they will vote for.

We can then compare this result with the Cable Forum exit poll and the actual result - just for fun!

So, go on then, who do you think will win the general election 2005?

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

I don't really care who wins, as long as they keep the green policy going to reduce CO2 emissions.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Labour, unfortunately

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Labour, reduced majority.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Same here :(

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Yep, I'd agree with that.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

It doens't matter who you vote for, the goverment always gets in

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

I sure wish this was a public poll ... I'd dearly love to know who is of the honest opinion that the Tories are going to win! They have a mountain to climb, bigger than it even appears to be thanks to boundary changes, and the fact that we are now a true three-party democracy, unlike the last time a Tory opposition won power in 1979. The swing the Tories need is beyond them, barring a miracle.

The only thing that could upset the apple cart is the 'invisible' campaign the commentators have only really started talking about this weekend, in the key marginals. It appears that the real election battle has been going on in only a very few location this time, so it's perhaps unsurprising that national polling appears to show so little movement.

I think the result on Thursday is going to be feindishly difficult to call with any accuracy. At the end of the day the British electorate is a very sophisticated one and I predict tactical voting on a grander scale than we have ever seen this week. FWIW, I expect to see a Labour administration with a much reduced majority. Whether it is reduced to the point the Tories suffered in 1992, with all the attendant problems that would mean, I don't know.

As a parting shot, I note that the perception of likely outcome we ourselves are expressing in this thread - overwhelmingly of the belief that Labour will win - is exactly the message Labour fears, and that the Tories secretly want. With a big swing out of the question, the Tories best hope lies in the apathy of traditional Labourites who think they don't have to vote because the result is a foregone conclusion.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

I wish that none of them would get in as they are all a load of rubbish and I am getting sick of them slagging each other off every night now BORRRRRRINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

I agree with you, Chris. I think the best we can hope for is a hung parliament.

Regarding the marginals, I think the LibDems will be the only winners there, with both the Conservative and Labour swings cancelling each other out. That will reduce Labour's majority - whether it will be enough to create a hung parliament remains to be seen.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

hmm - labour, reduced majority. luckily alot of people on my generation (30-35 years) remember how bad the last conservative government were. i agree labour aren't brilliant, but please, go to any country and ask if they are happy with the government there? course not. And i'm sorry, Michael Howard? I think not. Middle class party representing middle/upper classes - i hope Lib Dems do well, its just a pity they are never a 'real alternative'..

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

It was quite funny today on the news some guy was waving a "Do not vote for this man" poster as Michael Howard was being interviewed.

I unfortuantely think Labour will win it again.....they always do. :(

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

How does a hung parliament help anyone?

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

No Overall Control prevents any one Party from forming a Government. If you don't like the thought of a Labour goverment, but you know that the opposition parties stand no chance of winning, it's the best you can hope for.

And don't go complaining that it's unfair that the winning party doesn't get to take control, no party has won a general election with more than 50% of the vote for some considerable time, so we have had minority government in this country for decades.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

I am not complaining about that and I know what a hung parliament is. It will be hard for things to get done and chances are a new election would be called

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Not really, Labour would be the biggest party and so set up a government. They would then have to create policies that will get the backing of other parties (Local Income Tax, for example, would get the LibDem's backing) and let parliament decide rather than having Bliar decide for us!

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Agreed ... hung parliaments can work. The interesting thing at Westminster would be whether Labour went for a coalition, as it has in Scotland with the Lib Dems, or not. Charles Kennedy has not sounded enthusiastic about the idea of 'propping up' a failed Labour government but then after the Scottish Parliament was set up, the Lib Dems were accused of selling out on their principles at the first sniff of power. We will only get to see whether the Lib Dems nationally prize power or principles more highly if there is a hung parliament, because Labour is only going to look to them for a coalition.

Let's not forget that Parliament is supposed to be there to examine, critcise, and amend Bills, and only to enact them if, after all consideration, it thinks they are a good idea. It's not meant to be a rubber stamp factory for the Government of the day. A hung parliament might redress that balance a little.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Also, if we get a hung parliament, I can seriously see Labour, the LibDems and the Conservatives supporting a switch to PR voting (as in the Scottish parliament). If that goes through, we will probably never again see a single party government in Westminster.

No single party government (except perhaps the LibDems) elected under the current system would chose the change the voting system as it would not be in their interests.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Interestingly, Neil Kinnock became enamoured of PR while he was Labour leader. He favours it even today. But when you've lost three elections on the trot it's understandable that you'd start to look at how to change the system to prevent yourself getting left entirely out in ther cold for such a long stretch of time ever again.

By the way, the only reason there is PR in Wales and Scotland is it guarantees the Nationalist parties will never gain overall control, so no embarrassing Independence referendums.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Yes, I remember the Labour party kept on banging on about PR whilst they were in opposition (in fact I seem to recall them forming a pact with the LibDems that they would introduce it once they got into power in 1992 - which they did not ;)).

Much like all the other Labour pre-election promises they have gone back on their word now they are in power!

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

I have been a bit forlorn for the last couple of weeks or so, as I think Labour would win it comfortably.

However, reading the Guardian today made me a bit happy (never thought i'd say that :disturbd:), but it seems Labour's lead isn't as big as it seems. Still, the Oxford idiots might not be the only one throwing themselves off a bridge this week. :erm:

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Sadly, I am quite sure Labour will (just) win.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

We were on about at work today and we are all sick to the back teeth of them arguing all the time, they are acting like children and I am sick of the back stabbing and all the bitching.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2...olltracker.stm
:shocking:

(MORI May 3rd)

There seems ot have been a huge drop in Conservative voters.

Then again, the MORI poll has been all over the place in the past few months if you look at it.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

But the idiotic way our 'democracy' works, national polls are meaningless. It's the marginals that count.

Roll on PR.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

looks like the Liberal Democrats could take Surrey Heath from the Conservatives.it's going to come down to a few swing voters

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

Abso****inglutely...

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

the conservatives might sneak in, in my opinion, there are people around who just want a change from labour and to me it spells a tory revivel, lib dems have a few votes too...possibly mine too but the thing is im torn between the lib dems and conservatives...do i go for the lib dems on policies or give the vote to the tories because i like what michael howard has been saying and believe they will only be serious contenders to get in ?

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

you give your vote to the party that's up against labour - i.e. check the results last time round. in my area it is 26000 for labour and something like 10000 for lib dem and a few thousand for conservative. so a votes for the cons is a wasted vote therefore i voted for lib dem as a tactic to unseat our local labour prat. not much of a chance though as he's in a very safe working class seat.

Re: Who do you think will win the election?
 

I am now closing down this discussion, but please feel free to keep on wrangling in the Cable Forum Exit Poll thread:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...ad.php?t=28136