Alarm at new climate warning
 

Since the starting of the climateprediction.net project, all the models being returned have all shown an increase in temperature due to CO2 levels. We always thought the temperature would be something like 2-5C, but thanks to everyone taking part in climateprediction.net (including me) they have found out the temperature could be around 2-11C! :(

Quote:

Temperatures around the world could rise by as much as 11C, according to one of the largest climate prediction projects ever run. This figure is twice the level that previous studies have suggested.

More information here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4210629.stm

I'm glad I'm taking part in CPDN (the image shows the model working on your PC).

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I'm sure this has been posted already...mods? :erm:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

You are a mod? :rolleyes:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

uhmm whats going on your a mod...or are you on someones name you shouldnt be. :confused:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I'm an Administrator, which means (in this case) that I have nothing to do with the forum.
If you look here, you'll see that my primary job is to look after the nthellworld.co.uk and cableforum.co.uk websites.
If you have any questions then send them to the usual address, and no, my account hasn't been hacked Mr. 12 HP. ;)

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I can't see it anywhere else.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

"Hotter World May Freeze Britain"

Anyone seen "The Day After Tomorrow"? ;)

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Perhaps it's an idea to have the distinction between mods and admins reflected in the avatar then?

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

ooooooookay how that post got there I would love to know, but back on topic about global warming, I dont fully believe that it is all the publics fault, this goes much bigger.


Why are the goverments scared ****less of nuclear and atomic weapons, why?? is it due to the extensive detonation of such weapons which was wrecking the planet, the massive ozone tears due to the sheer power of these early weapons of mass destruction. I think there advisors told the leaders who all stopped altogther.

Hence other countries being scared of the weapons and even firing one up.

Can we have a weird thread award for this one thanks :D

See ya all in the morning greeny me up :beer:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

So... The temperature will go up and down simultaneously?

Talk about edging your bets. Sounds a bit Mystic Meg to me

Don't get wound up by global warming just yet. It is just a theory and there are equally competent scientists that don't believe it is anything to worry about.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I believe the massive changed i personally have reviewed and seen, including live scans of the ozone showing massive damage over nevada and other sites used for such a weapon, it is late and i am tired speak more in the morning.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

'Save as many as you can' :)

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Yes, one of the effects of global warming might be that the (relatively warm) Gulfstream that presently frequents our shores will choose a different course. Surely you can understand that a change in temperature will affect how water flows round the world?

In rapidly decreasing numbers, I'm afraid :(

But perhaps you would like name an eminent one that maintains that position?

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

This is a difficult issue since nobody has yet got conclusive proof as to what is or even may be going on. The CPDN project is just one of many studies trying to work out various scenarios as to firstly whether global warming is ocurring (or if we are just into one of those natural blips), and if it is real, what the consequnces might be.

The Day After Tommorrow, was a Hollywood spin based on some scientific concepts. Clearly it needed a level of senstionalism for the film to get audience attention. Whether sea currents could change due to temperature alterations I don't know but the theory seemed credible. However a very interesting thought of rising sea levels was for me quite confused when I saw a TV lecture on Channel 4 over Christmas which suggested that (proven by a simple demonstration using a glass and ice blocks) ice when melted does not change water levels, given that most of the ice infact is submerged. What can affect water density and thus perhaps volume and temperatuire is salinity.

Although we may not yet know or understand the consequences, what must be apparent is that we are consuming the accumulated natural resources of our planet, since industrialisation started, at an ever increasing and unsustainable rate. Many resources evolved over millions of years, yet are being consumed in decades. Simple common sense says that that is unsustainable, in that nothing will be left in generations to come, except the byproducts of our excess consumption. Climate change will most likely only be one of the legacies of this indulgence.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

You don't need to be a scientist to realise that the weather is changing rather rapidly. Why do you think I started the thread http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...ad.php?t=22303 .

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I don't really have this huge stock of evidence global warming. I don't really believe one side more than the other, because after all, how would I know? There are experts for this sort of thing. And they are doing educated guess work, but it is still guess work. Michael Crichton used to say, in the 1800s, they guessed that the air would be too polluted because of the amount of horses and their waste products. Of course they never envisioned the motor car.

As you requested, I did find these:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/st...346489,00.html
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp...3326&sec=world

If you notice virtually all the doom-saying about global warming, is "may.." and "might..." hardly convincing, as it shows they don't know for sure.

It is just too early to get hysterical about it.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

And what happens in 50 years if they were right and it's *TOO LATE* to do anything about it...???

Say "Oh. Sorry..."?

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

And there lies the crux of the problem. Geovernments in particular are all short term, only able to see to the next election.

If climate change is happening the seeds were sown many years ago, and yet the full effects may not be apparent in our lifetimes. That is the quandry, we do not know and are unable to properly ascertain what we are doing, or the extent of our actions. But if we are detrimentally affecting the planet, since the effects of climate change are slow to become fully apparent, so are the benifits of our attempting to reduce our impact. That is why it is a matter that requires proper consideration now, not in years to come.

Yes the sudden doomsday scenario of The day After Tommorrow is (we do hope) fiction, just as the thought that horse methane in the 1800s proved to be unfounded supposition. But at what point can our planet continue to absorb the increasingly rapid changes we are inflicting on it?

Gentle chnge now in our policies may well be preferable to drastic changes in the future to achieve the same effect. Plus reduction in our consumption now, may provide much greater longevity of limited resources such as oil. For the UK our energy costs are already set to rise as our North Sea gas bonanza runs out. That is just the ecomomic impact. What else might there be?

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I would have thought it was obvious, seeing as you have this handy list:
http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/showgroups.php?

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

So we have to whipped up into this frenzy just in case they are right? Isn't that much like people being whipped up in a frenzy in case people happen to be right about another terrorist attack.

Look at Scott's main quote. "Could rise 11c". That also means it could not as well.

We need objective investigation based on scientific principles, not hysteria.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Exactly ! It has become very apparent. I remember when I was younger we used to have loads of snow in the winter and it was really bad sometimes. Now we get some Winters when it doesnt even snow at all.
Plus there have been some huge heat waves that have ripped thruogh Europe.
Look at the one from about 2 years ago when loads of elderly people died in Paris due to the heat.
Something needs to be done about it now as it really is going to be a big problem if we leave things the way they are.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Oh ye *gods* Punky! This is so ludicrous I don't know whether to laugh or to cry.

*HOW* you can compare the two is beyond belief. The only rights people are going to lose if we are wrong about Global Warming is the right to pollute the planet which, IMO, is no bad thing anyway!

I agree we do. But we also don't need nonsensical comparisons with terrorist atrocities! We also don't need people burying their heads in the sand saying "well, we don't see a problem at the moment, so why bother doing anything about it?"

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Nonsensical comparisons are they? Look pretty similiar to me. Both have certain groups behind them who are trying to spread mass fear and panic to the public, about something which are certainly not guaranteed to happen, to promote what agenda they want. Both even to point to world destruction, but by different methods.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

The older ones amongst us will have seen the changes more than the younger ones. I am not talking about the odd days of extremes but the overall changes. I have only to open my door to find the changes very clearly shown. There are plants that normally would be hibernating for winter that look more like they think it is April. Birds use our TV aerial as a perch and the droppings on the drive are much earlier than last year. Very windy weather has never been so apparent. Without any scientific measurement I can sense the changes are increasing very quickly and to the extent that catastrophic results will be commonplace in a very short time. Can we do anything about it? We may be too late already.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

This makes for interesting reading and is also slightly worrying.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Yes, they are nonsensical and your "justification" here is even more ridiculous.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

The fact of the matter is we know less about this planet then we do about space, which is a tad worrying, if going on the above factual statement is true and put into practise in this thread, then how can we make a factual judgement on the timetable and posibilities of global warming, this planet has had changed we STILL DO NOT understand millions of years later, and all the time they are disproving old theorys and making new ones only for them to be ruled out.

End of day matter is, we know things in the air aint helping this planet, but hell all it takes is a monster volcano and all our efforts will be gone..

Perhaps we should stop looking at space and work this planet out and stop worrying when we only have read half the book on what this planet is about and what makes it tick.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Did anyone watch the Horizon programme the other week, on Global Dimming? - I'll find a link in a minute - but basically they were saying that global dimming has been reducing the amount of sunlight that reaches the earth, and in effect cooling the earth down - they gave an example - Jet Contrails from airliners have often been believed to contribute to global dimming, but they'd never been able to prove it, however, after sept 11, when all jets stopped flying and the sky was clear for a few days, they found that the temperature leapt up bu a degree - and as soon as jets started flying again, the temperature dropped.
Now the theory is that pollutants in the air, i.e. soot etc, have been contributing to this global dimming, and as such, helping negate the effects of global warming, which they are now saying could be a lot worse than people actually originally thought...

Edit: one link
Edit : second link (the bbc! must be true! :) )

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

That is just your opinion, delicately put as always. :erm:

I remember we had a few cold winters in the 1980's - which were blamed on all the dust put into the atmosphere by the massive volcano that exploded in the USA (St Helens ?).

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

and the tested nukes and atomic bombs of the 60's 70's and 80's.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

IIRC, I think most nuclear testing since the late 60's has been carried out underground. So, other than the EMP from the blast, most of the polution is contained. :confused:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Yes, of course it's my opinion, and if someone's going to make claims without justification or foundation I'm going to call them on it.

And this has precisely *what* to do with terrorist attacks as Punky asserts...???

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Doesn't this present global warning have summat to do with a lot of sunspot activity?

Mind 30 years ago I never heard of global warming.When I was a kid we were all heading for a new ice age. :erm:

It occurs to me that when I was a kid no one knew how to measure the ozone layer.Could be that the ozone layer opens and closes more often than we realise because our present statistical knowledge is not as extensive as it needs to be..We need time to gather enough info.Could be that we may only really predict after collating the research after a 50/100 years.

After all at some point when we chose a rose for an emblem for England that the world must have been a warmer place.I've never even seen roses out in April during my lifetime unless it was under glass so how come we are supposed to wear a rose on St Georges day?.Indeed it has been said that the last time of global warming was back in the 1100's.As far as I'm aware of no one can say that the world came to an end then.

Of course we should be taking care of the planet-she's our spaceship and deserves our respect.However I'm not really convinced by the scientists thus far.They can't even agree about it.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

We have roses outside in our garden that are still flowering and looking good and it is February.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

No justification? You are telling me that no environmentalists or agencies are trying to whip the population of the world up in a mass hysteria?

"The world temperature world might raise by 5 degrees in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years (they can't even agree on that), which could wipe out all living life". They still don't even if the earth is going to warm up or go into an ice age

Well, so long as they are sure. I should sell my car, house right away and go live up a tree and eat grass all day.

Rather than getting the facts then informing people sensibly, the are trying to scare everyone with what they admit is guess work, and then trying to find the evidence to support it.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Really?Here's me on the south coast without a single crocus or snowdrop out on display let alone any of my roses and we have had no frost or snow thus far this winter. :erm:
__________________

Exactly!This is a relativley new science.We have not been keeping detailed records for a long enough period to be able to say that statistically it is proven that.....We have only been able to gaze down at our planet since the 60's and the science involved in studying our planet is a new one that is still setting out it's parameters.Thus no one can be that emphatic about what may happen in the future.Let's by all means not pollute our air more than we can as frankly we have to breathe it and lets try and keep the earth as pristine as possible because we have to live here having no where else to go.I'm more concerned about the heavy industrial polluters mainly because it impacts directly on peoples health.Increased numbers of athsma sufferers is something to worry about NOW rather than a possible rising of temperatures that may well be a natural cycle of the planet anyway. :)

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

We may not have been keeping detailed records ourselves for that long globally but some areas have records going back quite a long way. I said ourselves because Mother Nature keeps records for us which we can recover via analysis of ice cores and tree rings amongst other things.
__________________

There are many methods of predicting future climatic conditions and many factors, both natural and man made, which can affect the analysis. Depending on which of those a scientist has taken into consideration can affect the climatic model that is produced. Taking all these models into account there can be a presumption of the way climate will change and the degree of change. This will result in a wide range of possibilities with the truth being somewhere within that range. These predictions have been moving over recent years in a direction that spells huge problems in the not too distant future. As with all research on the subject, the results obtained tend to be more often than not in line with the scientists pre-conception of what is going to happen.

At the end of the day though I sense that climatic change is speeding up without the need for scientific evidence. It is a gut feeling that I hope is wrong.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I'd say it's a pretty safe bet to say that you'd vote Bush if you were an American, you'd live in Texas and drive a 4.6 litre 4x4 just for the hell of it.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Yes, but noone told the scientists what to look for, and what it means. They learn as the go along. Science is the following stages in this order:

1. Observing some phenomena
2. Forming a hypothesis about it (which may or may not be correct)
3. Trying to prove it, normally by prototyping, or re-enactment
4. Trying to disprove it.
5. Go to 1,

Wtih global warming, we are still at step #3 and at an early stage at that. Scientists notice something, and can suppose what it means, but they can't prove it yet - how do you set up an ice age as an experiment? Scientists may be able to do stage 3 to some extend, but they can't do stage 4, which is basically to prove or disprove that global warming is a natural temperature change.

Scientists really don't get things right on the first attempt much. They said the lowest level you can do to is a molecule. Then they discovered the atom. They said that it couldn't be split. Then they split the atom. Then they said that is as low as they'll ever go. Then they split the proton and discovered the Quark. They say that is indivisible, but they'll probably split that too sometime.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

No I'm not telling you that "no environmentalists or agencies are trying to whip the population of the world up in a mass hysteria", I'm trying to tell you that your assertion that there are "certain groups behind them who are trying to spread mass fear and panic to the public" is nonsense and I've yet to see any justification for the implication that there's some sort of world-wide conspiracy going on.

Hell, if you want a conspiracy, you could do worse than look at the US oil and motor manufacturing industries who are more intent on ensuring their profits and getting Sport Utility eXcesses classfied as trucks to avoid environmental emission controls and making certain that Bush doesn't sign up to annoying things like the Kyoto protocol...

And, again, I ask you, what will you do if it *does* happen? Say "oh, sorry, I didn't know that was going to happen, so I didn't worry about doing anything to stop polluting the planet..."?

And, please, this is *nothing* like terrorist attacks :rolleyes:

And rather than implying there's some sort of global conspiracy and dismissing any comment about the subject, why can't you accept the fact that *ARE* no absolute facts about this, but there are things to be concerned about and the time to start doing something about it is now!

(Sound of crickets chirping)

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Another result from my laptop:

http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cp...phase=AT#graph

Temperature didn't go as high as my last one, but what I don't get is why it started to go down near the end :erm:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Whenever I hear, or read, a news story that starts with the line "scientists (or experts) say" or "According to Scientists" etc etc

It's usually tosh, usually a load of tosh by some university trying to get funding.

It sensible to try and cut emmissions etc, but I don't lose any sleep over it.

and what do you do if doesn't.

Thats the doozy. Do you spend billions now trying to find other forms of energy or do you wait because it might all be a load of twaddle.

But if you wait, if its proven true - will it be too late.

If you spend now and it's proven wrong - just think what you could of spent all that money on.

:confused:

Don't worry about it, I've got better things to worry about.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

You really just don't get it, do you?

Even if it *doesn't* happen, we will *still* have improved the planet by cutting down on pollution and avoiding exhausting non-renewable resources by creating renewable energy sources.

*THAT* is something worth doing in any case.

But if it's a choice between doing nothing with the possibility of watching millions being displaced by rising sea levels and the chance of a new mini-ice age being caused by melting Arctic ice "switching off" the Gulf Stream or, on the other hand, making an *effort* to stop treating the planet as some huge rubbish dump, I know which I would choose.

Ah, "I'm all right Jack". What a publicly spirited citizen you are... :rolleyes:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Er, yes I do

And I was approaching it from the governments of the worlds point of view that will have to spend the billions of pounds investing in renewable energy.

You don't get it do you, the fact that the almighty dollar dictates what will happen. If renewable energy doesn't present a cost benefit ROI over a short period of time - it wont happen.



not if there isn't any profit in it, it isn't. There are not many countries or global companies that do things because they "are worth doing"

You've been watching to many films. Watch out for the 300ft lizards too.

No I just couldn't give a toss

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

And once again we're back to short term-ism and narrow mindedness that "it's not our problem, let someone else sort it out".

But it *IS* our problem, it's *our* planet and our children's planet and it would be an utter tragedy to look back in 50 years time and think "damn, why weren't we smart enough to do something about the problem when we had the chance"?

And you don't seem to realise that, yes, it may be the dollar/ pound/ euro/ whatever that dictates what happens, but this is *OUR* money!

*WE* are the ones giving it to the big companies and the governments and *WE* can say "if you don't spend it on sorting out this mess, we'll give it to someone else who will!"

All it needs is an effort of will on *OUR* part, rather than sitting back lazily and hoping it will all go away or that someone else will save us the hassle.

There *IS* profit in it. Consider how much it would cost to build flood defences and resettle millions of people if sea levels do rise. Consider what could happen with droughts and masses starving.

There is also profit if people say "Hey, your company is not polluting the planet, I'm going to buy from you instead of company X who don't give a toss".

Oh dear, is this the best counter argument you can come up with?

I haven't been watching *any* films. I suggest you start looking at the science of this and stop trying to dismiss reasonable arguments with glib comments.

"Grandad, why are we living in Cambridge on Sea now?"

"Well, son, it's because I didn't give a toss when I should have..."

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Bit of a contradiction in there as "environmentalists and agencies" surely must count as "certain groups"?

And I never said there was a conspiracy, nor did I ever say there wasn't an environmental problem coming. I merely said people are launching into scare tactics based on science that isn't proven, or scrutinised, or most crucially, enactable. At very best, it is wild guesswork.

I will not sell my car, live up a tree and eat grass for the rest of my life, based on (shaky) guess work. I require something a bit more substantial before I am going to fall in line with the doomsday-sayers

Actually, it has nothing to do with Bush. Clinton was originally against it, although Al Gore signed for it against his wishes. The Senate however refused to ratify it (nothing to do with Bush). Bush has said he opposes it, but if the Senate voted to ratify it, he'd stand by it. Kyoto is a joke. China is exempted from it, Australia opposes it (even though it produces under its quota of waste, under Kyoto Australia would profit from from trading their credits to industrial nations), as does Russia. Russia only ratified it recently as a political move to please everyone, even though chief environmental advisor to Putin was against it. Kyoto: avoiding a possible climate catastrophe by guaranteeing an economic one.



And, please, this is *nothing* like terrorist attacks :rolleyes:



And rather than implying there's some sort of global conspiracy and dismissing any comment about the subject, why can't you accept the fact that *ARE* no absolute facts about this, but there are things to be concerned about and the time to start doing something about it is now!


You are saying we should go to extreme measures to avoid some diastrous on little more than a hunch. The same is extreme measures to fighting terrorism. Also, you claim that certain groups are trying to instill fear about a future terrorist attack, which might not happen. Environmentalists are trying to instill fear about a future climate disaster which may not happen. People are jumping to conclusions there just isn't evidence, or proven theory that a) what's happening in the world would lead to a diaster, and b) what is happening isn't anything other than completely natural.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

:LOL: Although it could be "Grandad, when do we go scuba diving to look at the remains of Cambridge on Sea"

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Which ones shall I listen.

The ones that say we're warming up?

The ones that say we'll freeze up?

The ones that say that this is cyclical and cannot be prevented anyway?

The ones that say man made CO2 emissions are miniscule compared to natural ones.

The ones that say the deforestation of South America doesn't matter in terms of CO2 - Oxygen conversion becuase it is so small compared that of the oceans.

The ones that say oil is actually a replenishing resource (its true - scientists say)

When even our learned friends don't even know what fcuk is going on how are we supposed to make an informed decision.

Or should we just flip a coin?

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I think the main problem (as neatly illustrated by punky's post above) is that we only have a few hundred years of weather data to model on. A few hundred years is a lot, but it's not an awful lot compared to the age of the planet. It's entirely possible that what's happening at the moment is just a natural variation in climate.

As with Punky, however, I don't know enough to say for sure (but, TBH, I don't believe anyone else on this planet does either).

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

The truth is I can See Graham's point but I can also see Pierre's point as well.

Yes we need to be less heavy polluters but which of the many 'theories' are we to go with.

We can't manage/afford all of them unless we drastically ALL change our lifestyles and jobs.Everything is so interdependant that I suspect that even if we could give up and change everything we can we won't be able to operate at any technological level.

The choices may well come down to we just need less people or we live like stone age man. :(

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

I would tend to agree, but my own senses and observations make me believe that the weather is changing with increased rapidity. It may only be cyclical variation but it had better change the other way pretty quick or I will be worried.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Update on new EVIDENCE:

http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/20...gwarning.shtml

I'm not looking foward to this now :(

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Why is the stupid USA being such a pig headed load of ****ers over this, the stupid morons don't they see they aint helping matters, true we could find this is bad research but this arrogant attitude to global warming and Kyoto Agreement is wrong.

Perhaps its time the UN laid some sanctions onto the USA.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Why are you bashing at the USA? There's loads of other countries that won't bother helping :erm:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Dismissing the science for a minute, and looking at the the economic situation, it would be nothing short of a financial disaster for the US as countries like China and India aren't bound by Kyoto, they can do whatever the hell they like. The US is the feeder of the world, if that country struggles, then it creates a knock on effect that hurts everyone. It isn't the world's best interests to plunge the US into a deep recession. That is why the bi-partisan senate won't approve of Kyoto. It is like saving your right leg from being chopped off, by chopping off your left.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Because, world wide, the US account for nearly half of the polution released into the atmosphere.

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

And they only represent just over 5 % of the world population. Imagine if we all created the same amount of pollution !! Nature will sort it out (and us !!) if we don't become a little less humble, you only get one planet to live on. :angel:

Re: Alarm at new climate warning
 

Either way the fuels we burn the cars we drive the technology we use for transport making plastics and paints etc are so outdated its unreal, if we speant the same cash that goes into the improvement of fossil fuels and other primitive resources we could likely improve our technology ten times quicker but because the fuels and engines and everything else even though dirty and harming this planet are a quicker money earner...we leave it be.

All business and no thinking, money is okay but when there is only ice as the stuff you walk on, and the Earth is killing us off, Oil money wont save you then.