Cable Forum - Coronavirus (OLD)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36029441)

No, it puts the risk of you having died already into perspective. Many more who have been or will be infected have yet to die. On BBC News this morning they said 20K deaths in the UK is the minimum we can expect.

On average death occurs 14 days after onset of symptoms
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ath-rate/#days

I don't buy that, spiderplant. I appreciate that we are still learning about this virus, but did you see that the results of a recent epidemiological model developed by researchers at Oxford University suggested that half the population of the UK may already have been infected by the coronavirus? That being the case, we are fast approaching herd immunity and we may well reach the peak infection rate very soon.

When all is said and done, my guess is that the most significant factor about Covid 19 will be acknowledged to be the very fast infection rate, not the mortality rate (which is still a lot less than we can expect in a year with 'normal' flu). It is the high number of deaths within so few weeks that is causing exceptional demand on health services around the world that is significant.

I'm on a downer ATM. Luckily I can talk to mu sister

My mum is on a ward of 5 Coronavirus patients, and can't have any visitors for 14 days.

They are wating to do more tests, I'm guessing they are looking for antibodies.

I've had to self isolate and work want me to get a test, much to my annoyance. But I'm not going back until 14 days after I saw her as per government guidelines.

I feel like I have a cold, I have a mild sore throat that comes and goes, but it's not the swallowing brolen glass type.

Had someone drop round a few essential items.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36029482)

A hypothesis not backed up by the fact 80% of those tested for Coronavirus test negative. We also have the number of deaths now that they forecast on April 6th. The problem is they are trying to apply mathematical models to something that has far too many unknown variables at this stage.

Quote:

When all is said and done, my guess is that the most significant factor about Covid 19 will be acknowledged to be the very fast infection rate, not the mortality rate (which is still a lot less than we can expect in a year with 'normal' flu). It is the high number of deaths within so few weeks that is causing exceptional demand on health services around the world that is significant.

This is demonstrably false already looking at evidence from Italy. With the Guardian reporting that half of those who reach the 'intensive care' stage dying that figure is only going to go up and up.

We will likely have our own figure in 4-6 weeks that will shatter the 'it's only a flu' theory.

The Department of Health and Social Care have just released the new daily updated figures.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status...48001868111874

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52081389

Quote:

As of 9am 29 March, a total of 127,737 have been tested:

108,215 negative.
19,522 positive.

As of 5pm on 28 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 1,228 have sadly died.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...tance-and-stay

An interesting Chinese study now how one passenger infected 13 people on a bus - including people who got on AFTER he left. Indicates too that the furthest away was 4.5 metres.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36029482)

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...d-to-covid-19/

Quote:

Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham, said:

“This is interesting work, but is hampered by the same issues that impacts on all epidemiological models – they rely on assumptions that at the moment are based on only a paucity of scientific fact about how thus virus transmits.

“The reliable way to answer the really important question about levels of exposure is to carry out serology-based studies – Detecting the presence of specific novel coronavirus antibodies in the wider population will give us the real answer.

“This is key data as it tells us about the rates or serious disease and death, and will also give an accurate idea of future waves of infection.”

Quote:

Dr Simon Gubbins, Group Leader – Transmission Biology, The Pirbright Institute, said:

Is this good quality research?

“Yes.

Does it show that over half the UK population has been infected with COVID-19?

“No. What it shows is there are scenarios consistent with the available data in which a high proportion of the population (68%) could have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by 19 March. However, the estimates for proportion of the population infected depends on the assumptions made about proportion of the population at risk of severe disease, which is unknown. The high level of infection is predicted only if this proportion at risk is small (0.1%). If the proportion at risk is 1% (another scenario consistent with the data), the proportion infected by 19 March would be much lower (36-40%).

Are there any limitations or caveats to be aware of when reporting this work?

“The authors use the reported deaths from COVID-19 in the UK and Italy to back-calculate the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2. This uses the fact the number of deaths is (approximately) proportional to the number of infected individuals at some earlier time (in this case around 17 days previously). Back calculation requires an estimate of the proportion of the population at risk of severe disease (and so death), but this cannot be estimated as part of the analysis, so it has to be assumed.

“The model treats the UK and Italy as a single well-mixed populations. This means the model will overestimate the rate of spread and, hence, the proportion of the population infected.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36029482)

That is just one model though, The imperial college model disagrees.

Link

Quote:

It could be up to six months before life in the UK returns to "normal", England's deputy chief medical officer has said.
Speaking at the government's daily coronavirus briefing, Dr Jenny Harries added: "This is not to say we would be in complete lockdown for six months."

And the flaw in that plan is....

Quote:

But, she added, "We have to be really, really responsible and keep doing what we're all doing."

i can imagine civil unrest if they have a lockdown for 6 months.

Quote:

Originally Posted by deadite66 (Post 36029518)

i can imagine civil unrest if they have a lockdown for 6 months.

It seems the lockdown period was initially 3 weeks but in the space of less then a week its possible scope has been widened to a possible 6 months or even more.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200324...rtual-lockdown

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-june-11965226

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36029521)

The Government seem to be breaking the bad news and imposing restrictions in movement by stealth, possibly to avoid the civil unrest that deadite66 mentioned.

Quote:

Originally Posted by deadite66 (Post 36029518)

i can imagine civil unrest if they have a lockdown for 6 months.

Quote:

"This is not to say we would be in complete lockdown for six months."

Quote:

Originally Posted by deadite66 (Post 36029518)

i can imagine civil unrest if they have a lockdown for 6 months.

That’s not what was said.

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36029521)

tbf, they said it would be reviewed after 3 weeks, not that it would last 3 weeks.

And if we go beyond the headlines, today she actually said

Quote:

Speaking at the government's daily coronavirus briefing, Dr Jenny Harries added: "This is not to say we would be in complete lockdown for six months."

But, she added, "We have to be really, really responsible and keep doing what we're all doing."

Quote:

Originally Posted by deadite66 (Post 36029518)

i can imagine civil unrest if they have a lockdown for 6 months.

Already happening in italy after 4 weeks lockdown

https://en.as.com/en/2020/03/29/othe...24_787653.html