Cable Forum - Eurozone will collapse...

He confirms that Germany is indeed on the hook for €574bn of credits from the Bundesbank to the central banks of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Cyprus, and Slovenia.
We have always been assured that the so-called Target2 credits within the ECB's internal payments system is a technical adjustment, without significant risk.
Mr Bini-Smaghi states that any EMU state leaving the euro would face likely default on external obligations. "The national central bank would not be able to repay liabilities accumulated in relation to other members of the euro system, which are registered in the internal payments system of the Union (known as Target2). The insolvency would provoke substantial losses for counter-parties in other eurozone countries, including central banks and states."
German voters may wish to know this before the elections on Sunday week, since they are told otherwise by their own leaders. The anti-euro AfD party – now running at 4pc in the polls, with a shot at the Bundestag – might also find this to be of interest.

(From my link above, well worth reading in full).

Osem	14-09-2013 08:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

So what you're saying is that if things go truly pear shaped we're likely to have a whole lot of angry Germans feeling they've been betrayed... :erm:

Chris

14-09-2013 10:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35621564)

So what you're saying is that if things go truly pear shaped we're likely to have a whole lot of angry Germans feeling they've been betrayed... :erm:

Yes.

Would now be a good time to point out that as recently as this week, Barrosso has been repeating his claim that the EU guarantees peace, whereas loosening European integration would risk plunging us into world war 3?

Osem	14-09-2013 11:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Does the EU guarantee peace like it guarantees bank deposits I wonder... :rolleyes:

Methinks the 'peace guarantee' has been much overused and that all that's happened is that national and international tensions have been simmering away as usual. It's really that not hard to maintain peace within modern Europe when economic times appear 'good' and the EU is seen as doling out money from richer nations to poorer ones at no apparent cost to the donors. The problem comes when the massive cost becomes apparent, the money stops flowing and resentment then starts building on both sides. I don't think it's a major leap of imagination to consider that what's been done in the EU could have sown the seeds of a major crisis which could spiral out of control into conflict, not necessarily WWIII however. Whether those seeds germinate will be determined by whether or not we manage to get ourselves out of this financial mess and whether or not large swathes of disaffected people around Europe start turning to extremists for a 'solution' to their woes and forming dangerous political allegiances based on historical resentments. I seem to recall a certain German leader taking advantage, very cleverly and systematically, of simmering resentment and turning it into the worst possible form of extreme nationalism. We'd all like to hope nothing like that could happen again but IMHO there are the conditions brewing for dangerous and very long lasting tensions in Europe.

It strikes me that if the inherent tensions between nations are such that war could conceivably start, it'll take a lot more than a bunch of self important Eurocrats to stop that.

Sirius

14-09-2013 12:11

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35621584)

Nothing like a bit of scare mongering to keep the EU going is there :)

Damien

14-09-2013 12:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35621611)

Does the EU guarantee peace like it guarantees bank deposits I wonder... :rolleyes:

But the EU did honor their bank deposits in the end.

Osem	14-09-2013 18:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

I think we all know that if need be (i.e. things get bad enough) the rules will be changed. Anyway, I hope that's the least of our worries with regard to the EU. :erm:

Osem	14-09-2013 20:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

This is an interesting read which says a lot about what's going on in Italy:

Quote:

Italy is Europe's second biggest manufacturing power after Germany, but with rigid labour laws, high taxes, a bloated bureaucracy and fierce competition, the country is struggling to stay on the production line. Italy may have lost as much as a third of its overall industrial production in recent years, experts say.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24037545

Quote:

Carlo Carnevale Maffe, professor of business strategy at Milan's Bocconi University, blames a bloated and erratic bureaucracy.

"Who wants to invest in Italy?" he says. "Even Fiat is looking to Brazil and the US. The application of law here, the regulations, it's totally inconsistent."

He thumps his desk.

"The government has enjoyed all the benefits of the euro - the low interest rates," he tells me. "But they haven't used those low interest rates to make reforms - they've just increased the public debt and inefficiency."

More unhappy, struggling Europeans...

Damien

14-09-2013 23:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35621739)

I think we all know that if need be (i.e. things get bad enough) the rules will be changed. Anyway, I hope that's the least of our worries with regard to the EU. :erm:

The thing is will it really get bad enough? I think that point as passed with Greece representing the abyss they managed to avoid. If the Eurozone is to collapse then it would be the result of another major, unforeseen, crisis. Either the collapse of a big bank or the default of the country such as France or Spain. I know people are still saying it's about to fall over but they've been saying this for a while yet. The fact is Europe went all in on the Euro when the decision came.

If they start to recover then the real question is if they'll address the inherent weaknesses in a shared currency that have emerged. If they don't then we're all just biding time until the next major recession, if they do then the Euro might be with us for a long time to come.

Sirius

15-09-2013 00:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35621824)

The thing is will it really get bad enough? I think that point as passed with Greece representing the abyss they managed to avoid. If the Eurozone is to collapse then it would be the result of another major, unforeseen, crisis. Either the collapse of a big bank or the default of the country such as France or Spain. I know people are still saying it's about to fall over but they've been saying this for a while yet. The fact is Europe went all in on the Euro when the decision came.

If they start to recover then the real question is if they'll address the inherent weaknesses in a shared currency that have emerged. If they don't then we're all just biding time until the next major recession, if they do then the Euro might be with us for a long time to come.

Note It might be with them but its not with us and should never be. We are not part of that major fail and i hope NEVER will be.

Osem	28-09-2013 20:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Italian prime minister Enrico Letta failed to secure backing for a vital package of fiscal measures on Friday as divisions with centre-right partners in his fragile coalition took the government to the brink of collapse...

... After two days of mounting tension and with financial markets on edge, he met ministers late on Friday in a last-ditch attempt to avert a rise in sales tax and secure approval for additional budget measures needed to bring Italy's deficit within European Union limits.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ns-fiscal-deal

Osem	06-06-2014 09:28

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Not sure how this guy really represents anything other than more of the same old same old EU. The sort of institution which is there to serve itself rather than the people.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27727008

As for Merkel's sitting on the fence exercise, methinks it's time for her bluff to be called.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-27679173

What do they say about pride going before a fall?

If there's still no appetite for change within Brussels' ivory towers then I really can see the UK withdrawing from the EU. Of course there will be risks and costs associated with that but it's getting to the point where the risk of remaining part of the behemoth is even worse. These people are behaving like rabbits caught in car headlights... :erm:

Osem	19-10-2014 16:01

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Germany must increase its investment to improve competitiveness - but not at the expense of higher debt, finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has said.

His comments, in a newspaper interview on Sunday, follow a raft of economic evidence that shows Europe's most important economy is slowing down.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29681331

It'll be interesting to see how keen the Germans are to share in the European austerity, unemployment etc. they've managed to avoid for so long. I can't see anything in Europe changing very much until the Germans start feeling the pain.

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