Cable Forum - [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Well, with such beloved politicians as Gove, Farage, IDS, Gorgeous George, et al, all for Brexit, what's not to support...;)

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...2&d=1460803897

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35832710)

Various governments have been having currency wars for the past few years in an attempt to cheapen their exports.

It should be noted that we import more than we export with regards to the European Union only. We have a positive current account with the rest of the world. Upon leaving the EU we would no longer be subject to the Common Customs Tariff which would reduce the cost of imports from outside the EU.

With those in mind I'd suggest the impact of Brexit is not black and white. There are far too many variables.

I'm sure if I could be bothered it wouldn't be hard to find plenty of 'experts' forecasting the UK's doom if we failed to join the Euro. The past few years seem to have tarnished the reputation of economics as a field in no small part because most economists don't seem to know backside from elbow when exposed to how things work outside of the classroom.

Except that 75% of our imports come from the EU and 25% from the rest of the world. Remember our exports to the EU is mainly services and in this sector we run a surplus of around £15 billion.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35832727)

Except that 75% of our imports come from the EU and 25% from the rest of the world. Remember our exports to the EU is mainly services and in this sector we run a surplus of around £15 billion.

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/20...m-page-95.html

Quote:

The proportion of total exports to the EU was 46 per cent in February 2016. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 38 per cent to 48 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU was 55 per cent in February 2016. Over the same period, this has ranged between 51 per cent and 55 per cent.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

From 2005: The EU
Introduction
A first-time visitor to Europe would soon realize that something called the
European Union (EU) exists but might not understand exactly what it is.
Signs at the airport in an EU member state (by far the majority of European states) would direct the visitor into the “Non-EU” line for inspection by national immigration officers (there are no EU immigration officers).

Once finished with border formalities, the visitor would need to change money. In twelve of the EU’s twenty-five member states the visitor would receive euro notes and coins but in the other member states would receive national currency.

Traveling around the country, the visitor would see the distinctive EU
flag (a circle of twelve gold stars set against a deep blue background) promi-
nently displayed. In the EU’s poorer regions, the visitor would notice signs adorned with the EU flag, proudly proclaiming that various infrastructural projects were being funded in part by the EU.

Staying within the territory of the EU, the visitor would be able to travel unimpeded across some, but not all, national borders.

A curious and discerning visitor would discover that national political
systems are alive and well in the EU, but that there is a complementary political system centered on Brussels, meaning in this case not the political capital of Belgium but the locus of EU policymaking.

National governments, parliaments, courts, and other bodies participate in the EU system, as do separate EU institutions such as the European Commission and the European Parliament. Further inquiry would reveal that a complex system of EU governance produces rules and regulations covering a host of policy areas ranging from agriculture to antitrust, the environment, immigration, and international development.

The visitor would soon realize that there is considerable variation
in the applicability and implementation of EU policy among the member
states

Introduction
Table 0.3 Joining the EU: What Needs to Be Negotiated
Chapter 1:
Free Movement of Goods
Chapter 2:
Free Movement for Persons
Chapter 3:
Freedom to Provide Services
Chapter 4:
Free Movement of Capital
Chapter 5:
Company Law
Chapter 6:
Competition Policy
Chapter 7:
Agriculture
Chapter 8:
Fisheries
Chapter 9:
Transport Policy
Chapter 10:
Taxation
Chapter 11:
Economic and Monetary Union
Chapter 12:
Statistics
Chapter 13:
Social Policy
Chapter 14:
Energy
Chapter 15:
Industrial Policy
Chapter 16:
Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
Chapter 17:
Science and Research
Chapter 18:
Education and Training
Chapter 19:
Telecommunications and Information
Chapter 20:
Culture and Audiovisual Policy
Chapter 21:
Regional Policy and Coordination
Chapter 22:
Environment
Chapter 23:
Consumers and Health Protection
Chapter 24:
Justice and Home Affairs
Chapter 25:
Customs Union
Chapter 26:
External Relations
Chapter 27:
Common Foreign and Security Policy
Chapter 28:
Financial Control
Chapter 29:
Finance and Budgetary Provisions
Chapter 30:
Institutions
Chapter 31:
Other

source https://www.rienner.com/uploads/47e029fe2f724.pdf

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35832709)

But the whole point is there is no guarantee. The UK accounts for around 8% of the rest of the EUs exports, but the EU accounts for 45% of our exports. But we rely on the EU for 55% of our imports. They have the strong negotiating hand but if they say yes, ok, we'll let you have free trade but in return for free movement (ala Switzerland and Norway) then what's the point in coming out? It is all about immigration after all isn't it this vote? And if they say, ok, we'll trade but there will be tariffs (as per most of the rest of their trade agreements but there are also restrictions on what they can trade) then prices will be going up. Even a 4% tariff added to the currency slide and it will have a big effect on inflation and our ability to trade.

The point in coming out is we control our interests. If they want free movement they are going to have to do better than those deals

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832736)

The point in coming out is we control our interests. If they want free movement they are going to have to do better than those deals

What's better than direct access to the single market? Not sure what deal you expect to get.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35832772)

What's better than direct access to the single market? Not sure what deal you expect to get.

A deal that will allow us to dictate the terms preferably without the freedom of movement part so we can control our own immigration.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35832774)

A deal that will allow us to dictate the terms preferably without the freedom of movement part so we can control our own immigration.

I think you're going to be in for a shock when the world doesn't roll over to our demands. The idea all these Eurocrats people have been telling us for years are working against our interests will suddenly be willing to help us out is a bit of an illusions. I think we'll get a deal but it will be worse than what we have now especially if we don't have freedom of movement in there.

Many countries in the EU do not have a trade surplus with us and they all have to vote Yes for a deal to be done
If Britain gets a better deal out of the EU than inside it then everybody will be doing it
Dublin, Berlin and Paris will all be looking to steal some of our services sector

We have full access to the single market at the moment. That will probably be restricted and that alone can hit the economy.

Siemens and BMW have also said that the single market helps their sectors: http://eandt.theiet.org/news/2016/ma...nst-brexit.cfm

Quote:

BMW’s Ian Robertson, a member of its managing board, echoed Maier’s comments saying that the EU allows freedom of movement for the car-maker’s components, cars and engineers, but that a British exit would create restrictions that would give those countries that remained in the Union distinct advantages.

“That’s one off the primary reasons that we believe it is much more positive for the UK to remain a strong and robust member of a reformed European Union,” he said.

“If the UK were to leave the Union, we would still have to abide by all the laws and legislation that apply within it because we would still move and sell our products around the EU.”

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bircho (Post 35832727)

Except that 75% of our imports come from the EU and 25% from the rest of the world. Remember our exports to the EU is mainly services and in this sector we run a surplus of around £15 billion.

Yikes. During today we've gone from 55% of our imports coming from the EU to 75%.

Given there are no tariffs on services it's pretty good that our exports to them are largely these, so that's comforting.

They can't arbitrarily slap tariffs on us. We would default to Most Favoured Nation status within the WTO. We'd be subject, at worst, to the same Common Customs Tariff as everywhere else.

Obviously with 2 years of negotiation before exit we'd have ample opportunity for our market to begin to work with suppliers outside the EU. Outside of the CCT there wouldn't be large tariffs being placed on goods like foods and solar panels in order to protect French farmers or German manufacturers.

It's really not as simple as doom and gloom, neither would it be a smooth and painless transition. It's not beyond the wit of man to get it done.

EDIT: All this said I should mention that if people think we're not going to negotiate free movement or something basically indistinguishable from it post-Brexit as part of a deal you're mental. It's not about that for me and I'm fine with it.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

I hope all the rabid (and not so rabid) Cameron haters around are going to allow their intense dislike to drive them to vote out. We're told he's extremely unpopular so surely they have no reason not take this opportunity to stuff it to him, get us out of the EU madhouse and get him out of office.

:D

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35832787)

Yes, it is a dilemma. No matter how much I dislike the guy and his divided party, the issue is much bigger than Cameron and the Tories

The alternative to him, in the event of Brexit would be a nightmare further swing to the right, with a Boris/Liam Fox administration (plus the ensuing economic chaos). The rich would be protected but everyone else will suffer badly. They'd take full advantage of workers rights being swept away.

Head rules my heart I'm afraid.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35832710)

It should be noted that we import more than we export with regards to the European Union only. We have a positive current account with the rest of the world. Upon leaving the EU we would no longer be subject to the Common Customs Tariff which would reduce the cost of imports from outside the EU..

Worth repeating.....

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35832811)

Worth repeating.....

As is

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35832786)

All this said I should mention that if people think we're not going to negotiate free movement or something basically indistinguishable from it post-Brexit as part of a deal you're mental. It's not about that for me and I'm fine with it.

We wouldn't countenance being in Schengen however there is no reason to think that, with that and the odd other exception, the most distant relationship we have with the EU would be much different from that the Swiss have.

Dan Hannan puts the case better than I could. It's about democracy.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Bored of it all.

Also, being fairly politically engaged as I am, I don't want to listen to politicians that most likely know less about all the issues than I do.

I don't understand why people think politicians somehow are experts on this, they're not.

Ignore the politicians, seek out the facts away from the " official" campaigns.

I'm still 50/50.

Nothing either campaign puts out will affect my decision.