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-   -   Russia has invaded Ukraine (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33710768)

Chris 16-02-2022 10:20
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36113506)
Looking like Ukrainia won't be allowed to join Nato as, if they did and Russia invaded them, other countries (including us) would be obliged to come to their defence.

For some reason we don't want to do that, either because, even with America, we are not confident in winning any war with Russia or Ukrania is regarded as being worth sacrificing in order to avoid any military conflict ie loss of life etc. I'm not sure which.
A war between the USA and Russia is a war between two nuclear powers. Such things are avoided carefully. This is why Biden wouldn’t even send an evacuation plane to Kiev in the event of an invasion; if it or its crew were caught even in the crossfire things could escalate badly.

Ironically Ukraine’s membership of NATO is I think more likely now than ever. The Russians arguably already made it easier by occupying Crimea where they have long had a major naval base that, prior to 2014, would have been subject to some very awkward negotiations had Ukraine joined the western alliance. They have also created the very clear impression that Ukraine is at risk of invasion making a mutual defence pact more desirable.

Once Ukraine is in NATO, the military door really is slammed shut on Putin. Western troops move in and risking their lives risks direct confrontation. Again, this is avoided carefully. It’s why the Cold War stayed cold. If Ukraine joins, then Putin is left trying to interfere with the politics of the country so as to bring about a Russian friendly administration that might take it out of NATO again.

papa smurf 16-02-2022 11:31
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36113514)
A war between the USA and Russia is a war between two nuclear powers. Such things are avoided carefully. This is why Biden wouldn’t even send an evacuation plane to Kiev in the event of an invasion; if it or its crew were caught even in the crossfire things could escalate badly.

Ironically Ukraine’s membership of NATO is I think more likely now than ever. The Russians arguably already made it easier by occupying Crimea where they have long had a major naval base that, prior to 2014, would have been subject to some very awkward negotiations had Ukraine joined the western alliance. They have also created the very clear impression that Ukraine is at risk of invasion making a mutual defence pact more desirable.

Once Ukraine is in NATO, the military door really is slammed shut on Putin. Western troops move in and risking their lives risks direct confrontation. Again, this is avoided carefully. It’s why the Cold War stayed cold. If Ukraine joins, then Putin is left trying to interfere with the politics of the country so as to bring about a Russian friendly administration that might take it out of NATO again.
I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .

spiderplant 16-02-2022 12:23
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36113521)
I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .
There wouldn't be many NATO members left if that applied

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...orial_disputes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States

Hugh 16-02-2022 12:52
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36113521)
I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm

Quote:
countries seeking NATO membership would have to be able to demonstrate that they have fulfilled certain requirements. These include:

- a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy;
- the fair treatment of minority populations;
- a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
- the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and
- a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures.

Once admitted, new members would enjoy all the rights and assume all the obligations of membership. This would include acceptance at the time that they join of all the principles, policies and procedures previously adopted by Alliance members.

Carth 16-02-2022 13:09
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
- the fair treatment of minority populations;
- a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
Yet the United States are in :D

Hugh 16-02-2022 14:02
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36113537)
Yet the United States are in :D
For prospective members only… ;)

Hom3r 16-02-2022 15:28
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36113457)
Aye aye!

Six Typhoons bimbling about Lincolnshire/Yorkshire at the moment…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1644952932

Two just above Boston, and the other four near/above and to the right of York.

https://www.flightradar24.com/53.25,-0.89/8

Military aircraft don't show up on this app.

Chris 16-02-2022 15:43
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36113543)
Military aircraft don't show up on this app.
They do, except when they don’t want to.

(Edit). Here’s one passing through:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1645026372

Hugh 16-02-2022 16:18
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36113543)
Military aircraft don't show up on this app.
The six delta-wing symbols were Typhoons, and when you clicked on them you got their flight paths, call signs, etc.

Here’s a RAF Apache doing circuits…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...2&d=1645029573

Pierre 16-02-2022 19:00
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
I have it on my phone and like to check what’s flying over when I’m out walking. A few times I’ve seen private jets at fairly low level fly over without an active transponder and often wondered what shady character is on board that!

Hugh 16-02-2022 20:19
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Russia moving troops into ‘attack areas’ near Ukraine, minister warns

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0...89b205a723ea76

Quote:
Russian troops have moved from holding areas to “more aggressive launch areas”, the defence secretary has warned.

Speaking at Nato headquarters in Brussels, Ben Wallace said that the number of Russian troops was increasing in “key areas” and he had seen no evidence of a withdrawal.

He told Times Radio that the build-up was in a different direction than the public messaging. “We saw some movement of Russian military forces from sort of holding areas to more front-footed deployed areas. I’ve been a soldier . . . you don’t deploy strategic weapons systems, you don’t build field hospitals, if you’re just going for a training exercise.”

Hom3r 18-02-2022 19:01
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36113572)
I have it on my phone and like to check what’s flying over when I’m out walking. A few times I’ve seen private jets at fairly low level fly over without an active transponder and often wondered what shady character is on board that!

No transponders generally mean military

Hugh 18-02-2022 20:16
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36113824)
No transponders generally mean military
They have transponders, but with the ability to switch them off… ;)

Pierre 19-02-2022 18:23
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36113278)
I'll stick my neck out, and say I bet it doesn't.
It didn’t!

Any other predictions from anyone?

Sephiroth 19-02-2022 20:16
Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin's got everyone dancing to his tune, especially Biden. You gotta admire Putin.


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