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It’s not the civil servants bit that’s interesting (I agree - they’ll be doing all kinds of contingency planning) it’s the fact it’s clearly being briefed.
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I expect at the moment they are *hoping* that a combination of high booster rates and a possibly less severe illness from omicron will render curbs unnecessary. But if that doesn’t work out then the appropriate policy option has to be ready to go. |
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The next straw to clutch at is the hospitalisations/death rate vs the delta wave in summer.
In reality the important question is the hospitalisations/death rate vs delta now with increased vaccine coverage. To present the former and say “see it’s mild” is skewing the evidence for a comforting narrative. The reality is, based on the growth rate, it needs to be significantly milder than delta in November. |
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7th December 1,051,987 tests, 54,257 positive 14th December 1,319,891 tests, 87,619 positive Less than 30% more tests, 60% more positive. |
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Any comparisons with earlier waves will be interesting in illustrating vaccine effectiveness but ultimately all that really matters in public heath terms is whether our hospitals can continue to function. If it appears that serious illness is going to overwhelm the NHS then back in our boxes we will go. |
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https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/15...liament-square
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Wonder if any of the news channels will carry it. The Man U game is off so might as well watch something. |
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The predictions are doomed to be wrong, but that doesn't matter as long as they have the right effect. |
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Make yourselves sheep and the wolves will eat you.
(Benjamin Franklin) |
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BREAKING: Emergency Covid Cobra meeting call happening in next few hours to give rise to further restrictions being implemented. Source: Politico.
I will ignore them. I suspect millions more will also too. We have got to start living normally with this virus. |
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A ban on indoor mixing makes sense, if you can enforce it, which is the issue there. A lot of people are scaling down their plans which means that you won't necessarily see as much of an issue there, but realistically how do you stop a group of more than 6 mixing indoors, or two households, or whatever, you'd presumably have to monitor individual houses or something. Limiting pubs to outdoor service - well, some don't have the space so they'll have to close, and really people aren't going to sit outside in the middle of winter with their food/drinks so that's basically forcing them to close as well, so furlough will have to come back, all for a 2 week circuit breaker? I understand they do need a "next stage" planned out if they need it but the time to go in harder was when they chose to go for Plan B measures, though it's not too easy to see what would actually work well. Plan B wasn't ever hard enough if you actually wanted to stop the virus. |
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What is the natural ceiling for Omicron given 2x vaccine efficacy near zero (actually zero for some vaccines), 3x vaccine efficacy 60% (and probably will wane) and previous infection unknown?
As for enforcement I don’t see that being much of a challenge. There have been rule breakers in every lockdown. The new ones will be offset by those concerned as figures rise - the number of people voluntarily changing plans and cancelling Christmas parties etc show the public to be massively risk averse even when figures are low. If they don’t the solution is to extend restrictions for as long as required to bring hospitalisations down sufficiently. |
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A poster on another forum stated that she had "dozens and dozens" of LFTs as she had heard that they will not be free for much longer. :td: I bet she's not the only one hoarding them and causing greater scarcity for those that need them NOW. :mad: |
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I've seen many posts from the "it's just a flu" idiots that have now changed to "I've got a runny nose and sore throat, it's just a cold, so I'm still going out with my mates to the match/pub/club".
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Amazon can do same day delivery, so surely the UKHSA need to be actually couriering a box of LFTs to the close contacts (if they don't already have any) so they can do their tests, same day or next day, if they have enough LFTs in the household they don't need any more. |
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And there is still precious little data here on severity of illness. Quote:
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The hospitality sector must be making up their problems then based on your observations. Rishi might be able to get away without financial support for this lockdown.
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I was on a rare evening out last night and the town and pubs were just as busy as I have seen them. |
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Meanwhile, according to the explainer here … https://www.who.int/news-room/featur...and-protection … efficacy is a vaccine’s ability to prevent development of disease, which in this case is Covid-19, and not its ability to eliminate detectable infection, in this case of the virus designated SARS-CoV-2. According to that globally-accepted definition, we can indeed discuss Oxford/Astra, Pfizer, Moderna and the rest in terms of their ability to prevent people getting sick, and by that measure the statistics you quoted are the ones that apply. |
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10,059omicron cases today, more than three times as many as yesterday. I wonder what 10,300 is as percentage of total omicron variant cases Edit:24,698 total omicron cases 2nd edit:approx 71% increase in the past 24hrs |
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Vaccines will likely change the numbers getting seriously ill and/or die. But they aren’t likely to dent the Omicron spread. I’m not sure they’re “my own terms” when they’re the headlines all the major vaccine manufacturers were happy to run with in their own press releases. |
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Our works party got canned (not that I go to it anyway). The pub I went to for a meal last night was as busy as usual. |
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Sky reporting deaths with omicron have gone from 1 on Tuesday, to 7 as of Thursday
Of course, usual caveats etc. apply |
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A lot of Football matches have been postponed today, I presume due to covid issues.
(or possibly issues implementing the latest checking rules ?) |
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On a side note a couple of clubs reduced their capacity to get around checking rules. Aberdeen did that up here - max capacity 9,999. |
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Given that pretty much all of them are under 40 and have only just become eligible for a booster, even if they were double jabbed before, it's not surprising there are outbreaks at the moment. |
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The fact of the matter is, you can catch a lot of bugs and viruses and live on, many catch Flu and survive, many others sadly, do not but we learned to live with these illnesses - we got to stop panicking at every turn. I am seeing on the ground, cancer issues being discovered far too late because people cannot get appointments, missed opportunities like these are going to cost many lives, we got to get the NHS back to being a National Health Service and not a National Covid Service. |
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90418 new cases announced today.
125 deaths. 1598910 tests |
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If you allow covid to go unchecked then how long before such significant levels of primary/secondary health care professionals are unable to work due to either sickness or needing to isolate? What’s going to happen to those needing treatment for ‘normal’ issues and those with covid then? |
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Covid has already been treated and has not been left unchecked. We have the vaccines. We were told they were our way out of it. We also have natural immunity to help. We can’t ignore thousands of other medical problems that can be fatal if left unchecked this is the much bigger problem, not Covid. Lockdowns do not work. Circuit breaker lockdowns don’t work either. Many will not comply, myself included. This madness of keep stopping & starting everything has to end now. |
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Didnt Wales try a "Circuit Breaker" last year.
Did it really achieve much ? The whole UK went into lockdown anyway. |
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That’s not what I’m asking, I’m asking you what will happen if you let the virus flood through society, the answer is that masses of primary & secondary health care professionals will be either off sick, or self isolating. both sets would potentially be unable to provide care to either covid or normal patients. You’re right hospitals haven’t become overwhelmed yet, either in previous waves because we had lockdowns or in this wave because of course there is the lag between infection and hospitalisation. It is interesting however that London’s hospitalisation rate is up 30% week on week where the current epicentre of omicron infections is. I hope I’m wrong but I believe in the next 2-3 weeks we will see significant admissions. Time will tell. Vaccines were our way out of this until the omicron variant came along, they’re now not as much the silver bullet that they originally were. Natural immunity is not a protection against reinfection from omicron (or so the scientists say) Turning to lockdowns, they’ve always been stated that their job was to suppress the spread of infection and to protect the NHS, nothing else. To that end they did their job exactly as was required. Lastly, it is of course your choice should you wish to, and no doubt there will be a number of people who will agree and act in the same way. However, it appears in general that the British public are acting more cautiously. Just my 2c |
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It’s all about optics, being seen to be doing something, when nothing is what might need to be done. I remain nonplussed about any of it at the moment. Even with the infection numbers (and I read the update on the government U.K. HSA site and I consider myself intelligent but they don’t make it easy to understand) where they are, we are still miles away from where we were last year in regards to hospitalisation and death. The vaccines are working and even with reduced properties due to Omicron, they still appear to be effective. Continue with the boosters, I had mine yesterday, I think we may be able to get through without further restrictions. Also turn off Sky and the BBC you’ll feel better………works for me. |
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Case in point, yes it’s the guardian. However primary source is the NHS trust…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...box=1639821814 |
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Natural Immunity is a viable protection. It doesn’t stop you catching it, much like the vaccines, but helps equally & greatly against serious illness. Sorry but the booster vaccines came out before Omicron became a thing. So what your advocating is damaging shut downs at every variant and jabs jabs and more jabs galore and sod every other fatal illness out there? ---------- Post added at 18:12 ---------- Previous post was at 18:05 ---------- Quote:
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Nobody knows that natural immunity will do in our society, South Africa isn’t a direct comparison due its demographics. Pierre said this earlier in the thread, what should have happened is that clinical staffing for the nhs should have been ramped up, the government has had two years and they have failed so spectacularly it’s beyond comprehension. Lockdown is the absolute last thing I want to happen, however it appears that current measures are not sufficient. Let’s keep going with current measures… what happens when other areas of the country start to catch up with London ? Businesses unable to operate due to staff sick or isolating Primary/secondary care unable to offer treatment due to staff sick or isolating This is a horrible place to be in with two options and neither of them is a win 1. Continue as we are. Protect the economy, damage the nhs 2. Implement further protective measures. Damage the economy, protect the nhs There’s no win win solution in this, something is going to suffer |
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The original major lockdown worked, but when lockdowns are implemented again and again, behavioural science dictates they are less effective, because people become tired of perpetual locking everything down. |
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Continuing as we are doesn’t protect the economy. It just absolves the Government of responsibility for it.
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What happens to businesses/staff and to NHS staff if we live with the virus? How many hundreds of thousands if not millions of people will be sick or need to self isolate ? I don’t want the NHS to collapse, it’s not without faults but I’m immensely proud of the service we have. We can put in further financial assistance to help businesses and it can be paid for ---------- Post added at 18:42 ---------- Previous post was at 18:39 ---------- Netherlands to go back into lockdown from tomorrow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59713503 ---------- Post added at 18:46 ---------- Previous post was at 18:42 ---------- Quote:
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Just got back from having the booster jab an hour ago. Stung a bit and they put on a dressing. It was the Pfizer. All very well orgainsed as the two previous times.
Is this jabbed deeper than the AZ? Anyhow I had it in my LH arm as I'm right handed and get odd muscle pains in that upper arm. So far no effects. Just having a couple of tots of whiskey. |
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It'll become routine like flu. At the moment there are too many headless chickens running round with knives in their backs.
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If we choose not to isolate when sick and symptoms are as you say symptomatic. What happens to the immunosuppressed living their lives. What happens to front line medical staff who are infected and go into their place of work with clinically vulnerable people? We’re both talking ifs and buts as neither of us can see how this definitively ends. I guess it comes down to your personal appetite in terms of risk aversion. We’ve been able to find money for wars & other nonsense such as HS2. We can find money to support businesses (which I don’t disagree will need considerable support.) ---------- Post added at 19:28 ---------- Previous post was at 19:23 ---------- Quote:
It will eventually evolve into something weaker, however there’s no guarantee that each subsequent variant will be weaker than that last until such point as it becomes endemic and no less deadly than a cold. The Spanish Flu tells us that, as does studies into virology in the animal kingdom. |
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And how do we know that the 30% increase is for Omicron or just normal for winter like illnesses? We already have testimony from Africa Omicron is a very mild version of Covid. They have even accused the UK and other European nations of overreacting and they are right. |
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It would be an amazing coincidence to see it linked to something else, but you’re right it’s entirely plausible Africas population & demographics are completely different to the U.K. they can’t speak on our behalf. This could be a storm in a teacup. You could be right, I hope you are. As if you’re wrong & if the scientists are right we are going to be in a world of hurt. Time will tell. Been a pleasure discussing 👍 |
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Regardless, the most optimistic outlooks indicate 30% milder. Which is massively outweighed at a population level by an R number anywhere between 3 and 6. |
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BREAKING: The Brother of Jeremy Corbyn, Piers Corbyn, facing calls to be arrested for inciting violence against MPs for Covid restrictions.
Video has emerged on Twitter of him saying: Quote:
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Vive le revolution.
A bit crass after that MP got stabbed. |
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Has she pipped up about the Apple store getting smashed up today in London by covid protestors? Genuine question…
Or, maybes they were all just trying to gatecrash a party ? |
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I still want to hear what the death toll is from the Omicron variant as opposed to the the Delta variant. Unfortunately the media only keeps referring to Covid overall rather than specific variants.
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https://assets.publishing.service.go...n-Overview.pdf Worth a follow on twitter if you're on there - https://twitter.com/UKHSA |
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Absolutely staggering…… conversation between Spectators Fraser Nelson and a Professor working for SAGE:
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1639864540 |
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I've seen that same thread, Mick.
Tail is wagging the dog. If they're being told what to model, then it's no surprise the modelling is reflecting the worst case outcomes. |
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To add, she was quick enough to call out the insulate Britain protestors |
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Either way, still does not compare. I think you’re missing the point. We’ve had two MPs killed in recent history, one only a few weeks ago, I think it’s very crucial the Home Secretary calls out those inciting violence on MPs who voted for Covid restrictions. Even more so that the person doing it, is the brother of Jeremy Corbyn. |
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The comparison would be between the protest today and the previous insulate Britain protests Sorry I didn’t clarify |
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NEW: Sir Keir Starmer has not ruled out backing any new coronavirus restrictions
Via @thesundaytimes No surprise there from the fence sitting fool. |
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They are quick to impose restrictions, but slow to remove them. |
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He (and anyone who does this sort of thing) should be prosecuted. |
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-trousers.html |
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looks like he's been on the paraffin oil https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ktop_tvshowbiz |
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It's the only sensible position to take as we don't know what's coming. |
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https://news.met.police.uk/news/man-...t-arson-439753
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It's not exactly logical to suggest that wearing a mask whilst you are moving between the door and your table, and to go to the toilet, but not at any other time is really offering any protection to anyone at all, hence masks might as well just stay off and anyone who has issues with being in contact with people who aren't wearing a bit of rag over their mouth at all times simply don't go to the pub. It isn't possible to eat and drink whilst wearing a mask and since you're not really supposed to be taking masks on and off (without washing your hands) repeatedly, then it makes sense to keep them off in these places. In any case, they probably only represent a small reduction in transmission, especially given the number of people who still don't know how to wear a mask properly after all this time. |
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Same goes for the idiot anti vaxers who get their scientific info from facetwatter, and try and force others to 'think' like they do. If it was all part of natural selection then fair enough, but it affects others, overwhelms the NHS and stops other getting vital treatment. |
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The majority of people who go to the pub do not drink 'excessively. A lot less people smoke now (and none in the pub, its been illegal for about 15 years). |
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Again this notion that there are hordes of anti-vaxxers roaming the streets “forcing” to people to think differently only exists in your , rather, warped mind. I’m going out tonight to see Graeme Park in Halifax, I’ll be drinking heavily, not wearing a mask and having a bloody good time. |
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I'd stick to Halifax FC, you'd be far safer/more socially distanced at The Shay ;) ---------- Post added at 14:36 ---------- Previous post was at 14:33 ---------- Quote:
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I happen to believe that Natural Immunity does actually work, the body does have an immune system, some people do have a very strong immune system, I injured myself on a rusty piece of metal once and went to hospital, who later suggested I have a Tetanus jab, I had it and days later my arm swelled up, so I went to see my GP, who proclaimed that the Tetanus jab wasn't necessary, my arm was swelling because my body was rejecting the Tetanus vaccine. The NHS is not being overwhelmed. There has not been a surge in deaths. Lockdowns and pathetic circuit breakers do not work. Wearing the mask only helps to stop you passing on Covid, not the other way round and if you have Covid and feel unwell, you should not be going out anyway, by becoming a super spreader and being the one who is actually harming others. It's quite strange isn't it that even though masks mandate has been implemented, positive cases are still rising considerably. We have since discovered that SAGE are only modelling on worse case scenarios only, not actual data and then the government appears to be trying to justify more restrictions based on these worse case scenarios, we cannot keep shutting down everything just because of what "might" happen, and not basing their decisions on actually what is happening on the ground. You see this is where YOU, are the one who is totally misinformed and reading utter shite on the internet and following the fear project & propaganda spouted by the likes of the Media. |
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BREAKING: The Crunch meeting where ministers will decide whether to implement new restrictions will begin at 5pm - but Boris Johnson won’t be in attendance and neither will Rishi Sunak for reasons that are currently unclear. Source: Politics for All.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/s...98717274505218 |
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