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The one question I would of just nodding though imports should we get no deal is that we would effectively put our tariffs at 0% for the EU and so would that mean we have to do the same for everyone else? That would be pretty drastic if so.

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Don't worry about it Damien, it's all in hand and is being carefully thought through, I should think. The Govt. just doesn't make it up as they go along you know ? :rolleyes:

I sense a change in opinion in the last few weeks as the public realises the practical implications. i.e. this might actually affect them (badly).

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Your senses are off by a lot. The public sees through the scaremongering bullshit, AKA Project Fear 2.1. They saw through the bollocks the first time, job losses, recession blah blah, following right after a leave vote and they’re seeing right through this fear, version 2.1

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You are indeed a Brexit rarity, someone who changes their position. Given that the info given by both sides at the time of the referendum was very poor that's fair enough as the real facts and effects become known.

Part of the problem is people with entrenched positions, who daren't change for fear of losing face, or admitting they'd been 'hoodwinked' . The politicians involved are only thinking about their careers - utter crap the lot of them, on all sides. They have all let the country down badly. Generations to come will never forgive them, but will be less hard the electorate that were conned.

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The one thing all these articles on the disaster that brexit will be is that all contain the following words:

Could, May, Might, Should, Anticipate, Potentially....................................... ....

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:clap:

now what was that recent Government initiative about fake news? :D

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Not sure what your point is. No one knows what deal the Government will get so all that anyone can do is point out what will happen depending on the type of deal or absence of one. You have to deal with uncertainty in business and scenario planning such as those by the councils in Kent are common.

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:rofl::rofl::rofl:
Spat my tea out when i read that .

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Another false prediction by project fear, joining the trash heap of their other predictions.

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What is strange is that there is a section of society who really think that the various professional bodies, business leaders, advisors, civil servants, etc. actually are part of a conspiracy to invent or over exaggerate the effects of a hard Brexit.

When some/most/all of these come to pass the very same people will be silent ..

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they be the biggest moaners going when we fall of cliff edge

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Yeah. They are collectively known as the establishment. And the population see right through all the B/S!

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Sorry for the late reply, I have been travelling and a bit out of touch. Thanks for the article, it was very interesting. Bit of an error there on the animal insulin. 0.3% of insulin is made in the UK is a small but significant amount. I know the other three suppliers well in my day to day work and they are huge, especially Novo Nordisk in the insulin world (Novo sponsors a diabetic cycling team so a nice crossover of my work and leisure time)

For some products, the papaerwork and even the formulations can differ by region. An EMA (EU) approval process can be very different to an FDA (US) one. EMA approvals are often of a more modern risk based type as opposed to a more proscriptive FDA one. It may well be the case that we could import products from outside the EU if the suppliers have the capacity. Capacity is driven by demand and expanding capacity in the bio pharmaceutical field is not cheap, easy or quick. Could a supplier back up the UK demand for insulin overnight? Probably not. Would that insulin be acceptable to the UK market from a regulatory point of view? Not sure to be honest.

If we were to accept EMA approved drugs in a ‘pharmaceutical single market’, this would help but if we are trying to gain back our sovereignty, turning over our drug approvals process to a foreign organisation seems a bit odd.

On the time to go through customs. This is rolled out quite a lot. Though not in the case of pharmaceutical cold chain supply, deliveries from the EU can very very mixed on the same container as no inspections are required. If we go no deal, then sifting through containers becomes a big problem. It’s not just the quantity but the quality of deliveries that matters. There will be delays for sure. We had 28000 customs, VAT and excise officers in 1992 and this was reduced to 16000 post CU/SM. Dover had 2000 officers alone! In the meantime, 400% more vehicles cross the channel than in 1992 so we are going to need a lot more customs officers to stick to,our current performance, especially in more EU trade centric ports. Hence the pessimism on the efficiency of imports of cold chain drugs such as insulin.

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It's speculation, guesswork, sensationalism all wrapped up in a negative narrative.

Do you know what the world will be like the day after Brexit? I don't, but I will do some speculation.............the same as it is now.

Lorries, goods and people will continue to come through the Chunnel and via ferry. Planes will continue to fly, people will still go to Spain for their holiday. There will be changes to the way things work but it will be gradual and worked out.

There will be no "Cliff Edge". The world simply doesn't and can't work that way.

There will be French champagne and cheese in the shops, Spanish oranges, Belgian and German beer and Cars from all over, pharmaceuticals etc will all be there, petrol pumps will not be dry, electricity from France will still flow across the channel, shelves will not be empty.

---------- Post added at 19:32 ---------- Previous post was at 19:31 ----------

That is not strange at all. Far from it.

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Brexiters with their heads in the sand (Brexit Derangement Syndrome), they must all be busy drawing up lists of who to blame. Meanwhile the Govt. makes plans to bring the army in.....

What was it Mr Bloomberg said ? "The single stupidest thing any country has ever done” apart from the election of Donald Trump as US president." He's another one in on the 'conspiracy' no doubt :rolleyes:

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This is what I think will happen but because no deal would be averted and there will be a bodge. I.E If goods flow freely the day after Brexit it's either because we're in a customs union of some sort or we're nodding them though without customs checks. I reckon for former as part of a 'transition period' as the Government won't want the drawbacks of just allowing things to come though without checks or tariffs.

The thing with all the things you've mentioned is that they require some sort of agreement which currently is managed via the EU. So something needs to be done or we're going for the fudge option.

I am reasonably that next year we will, for practical purposes, be kinda in the EU even with some official recognition that we're not.

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Just a realist, that doesn't scare easy.

Do you think that all those people that have booked holidays to Europe won't be allowed to travel?

Do you think all those companies that have contracts to supply goods and services ( both ways) won't be allowed to?

Do you think that planes from the UK won't be able fly to, and over, Europe?

That's not head in the sand, that is common sense. Common sense will win. There was a post earlier about big business, who do you think politicians really serve?

Go to bed and take a big spoonful of reality, when you wake up you'll feel much better.

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I think we do need to be careful that common sense will win though. Our politics isn't exactly a model of stability at the moment and the things you describe need political action to achieve.

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It will be BINO for a long time to come so 30 March 2019 will pretty much look like 29 March 2019 except that we'll have no MEPs and no voting rights, just a Churchill dog that nods "yes" when the European Parliaments enacts a new directive.

A headline in today's FT "Brussels willing to accept ‘fudge’ on Brexit pact Vague declaration on future ties would help Theresa May avoid ‘no deal’ departure" (Google to read the full article) suggests a no-deal is less likely.

---------- Post added at 21:01 ---------- Previous post was at 20:34 ----------

The documents in question were internal planning documents from two councils in Kent. Do you honestly think that if you're not threatening the EU with no-deal then you should be aware of its ramifications and plan for them accordingly? And why do you have such a low opinion of people as to call their work "guesswork". That's unfair.

---------- Post added at 21:04 ---------- Previous post was at 21:01 ----------

Is this a trick question, or can we say "Themselves" and win the cash prize? ;)

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I have NO lists because Brexit will be a wonderful thing for the UK. We do not need to be in a corrupt union to do trade and most importantly trade with WHO we want.

So far it's been pathetic doom and gloom, with so many scaremongering predictions that have turned out to be pure fiction.

I thought Brexit Derangement Syndrome, was aimed at the Remainers struggling to accept the overwhelming legitimate result for leaving the EU. Just like, Trump Derangement Syndrome, is aimed at those struggling to accept that Crooked Hillary lost.

As for Bloomberg - Noone's interested in what a rich moron like him thinks, I am certainly not, you seem to call the well off when it suits unless they're against Brexit.

One key thing to point out is that Brexit happened because of Democracy, other thing to point out that in the U.S, Democracy elected, Donald J. Trump - and it is NOT 'stupid' to have a vote to cast it how people choose to and if one side loses, then that's how democracy works, so people are not stupid for opting for a choice that was there to be voted on.

The problem here is, people are being pathetic when they slag off people for not choosing what they feel they should have voted for.

Democracy is about free thinking, choosing an option that they believe in and I would vote to leave the EU, again and again and AGAIN, because I do not want to be in a unbalanced, corrupted union that HAS handicapped as well as fleeced the UK for over 40 years. NO more!!!

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seconded :nworthy:

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So true.
https://www.ft.com/content/55d8cf86-...b-b8205561c3fe

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So true.
Quote:
In the minds of some of the most passionate Brexiters, the economic case for leaving the EU is less important than the prospect of the UK asserting its sovereignty. This is the promised land, which will flow with the milk and honey produced by stout British cows and industrious British bees.
They celebrate the idea that the UK will be able to negotiate new trade deals by itself — even though it already trades extensively with all the major economies as a member of the EU. But this fancy is blind to the truth that any new deals will place the country at a disadvantage and will, through provisions on “no-tariff barriers”, mean Britain will be surrendering control on domestic policy.
https://www.ft.com/content/55d8cf86-...b-b8205561c3fe

That made me laugh, but unfortunately it's also spot on. :rolleyes:

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The turning point for me was the EU trade deal with Japan.

Remember where I'm coming from. Those Brussels "whatsits" are an awful bunch of unelected elitists; however we are not in the Euro and we can stay outside the "ever closer union" nonsense which won't fly with the current generation of Europeans anyway.

Not that what I think matters, I don't like some of the sneering sarcasm I read like the "promised land" sentence in the previous post. This is a hard nosed matter and from an economic point of view, the Japan trade deal just tips the balance.

And another thing - we know who are not our friends. I'm referring especially to Macron of France whose naked (though understandable) attempt to grab jobs from the UK is one of the principle causes of negotiation intransigence by the Commission.

My distaste for the EU remains strong. It is a German/French axis, with the latter being akin to running dogs. I've explained in detail earlier how Germany engineered the Euro's initial value to their advantage - which has eventually led to the Greek crisis (possibly with more to follow). I've also explained that the illegal 8% German balance of payments surplus hasn't been brought to book before the ECJ. Who is running the EU? It is an awful organisation.

However, if we can continue as we are, outside the Euro/federalisation nonsense, we have to put up with three things that some/we don't particularly like but hasn't really hurt us in the past:

1/
The ECJ with respect to EU law (in which we have a formulation hand);

2/
EU Freedom of Labour Movement (I'm happy with that);

3/
Skewing the rules to get EU legislation through when we use our veto - the Working Time Directive being a case in point. Thank goodness for our opt-out.

Anyway - you can see where I'm coming from.

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If we ever do back in the EU we probably won't get the opt out/rebates we used to have. Its far from perfect, like most large organisations, but we might realise 'we never had it so good'.

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or never had it so bad

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Spot on. Recent interest rates rises only serve to prove this point.

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Interest rates have gone up and down since the first crook lent money to his neighbor . . it's not solely down to Brexit.

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Interest rate rises are used to calm the economy down, when it's doing TOO WELL.


The rebates didn't start when we joined the EEC. Other countries have rebates.

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They're being used to reduce inflation which is due to the weakened pound post the Brexit vote. It seems to have worked in this respect as the Pound has risen.

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And the reason for inflation going up.

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238'days 11'hrs 7'min and 49 seconds ....:)

---------- Post added at 12:53 ---------- Previous post was at 12:51 ----------





+1 :D

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That comment only serves prove that you don't understand why the recent quarter % rise was introduced.

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So are you saying that interest rate rises are not there to put a brake on inflation then?

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Interest rate rises are a tool that can be used to put a brake on inflation, but that was not the reason in this case.

Inflation has remained fairly stable recently at around 2.3%/ 2.4% since May, and down from it's peak of 3.1% in November last year, so there is no reason to raise interest rates for that reason.

The reason is that the economy is likely to do well for the remainder of 2018 therefore the economy should be able to handle a smooth gradual increase of interest rates. The Bank of England would ideally like to see interest rates get up to a workable level of 2.5 - 3.0% over the next few years.

Having interest rates down at below 1% really hampers the ability of the bank to intervene in a meaningful way should need to stimulate the economy in the future.

If all things go to plan I would expect the interest rates to be 1% - 1.25% by the end of the year.

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Pierre is absolutely right. Particularly the point about increasing the BoE's ability to make meaningful interventions when necessary.

I also wonder how many people understand why it is necessary to have at least 2% year on year inflation. Of course the main problem we face, Brexit or not, is productivity. If that rises, then 2% inflation generates proper wealth.

---------- Post added at 15:22 ---------- Previous post was at 15:20 ----------

If as a result of a second referendum we stay in the EU then we keep our opt outs/rebates (unless those Brussels "whatsits" try to skew Article 50 to punish us). Btw, I do hope that the Remainers in this thread do at least share a large chunk of my opinion of the EU Commission as represented by Juncker and Salmeyr.

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This is a joke - we pay in a hefty membership fee for paltry trade agreements that are controlled and vetted by the corrupted EU, while 17 other Member States, they gain more than they put in - they are the reals ones that have it so good more like, not us, but we put in MORE than we get out.

Not sustainable - no thank you, EU is corrupt and I want out of it forever. We can do our own trade, with who we want, when we want and who the hell we want, without the meddling of a toxic union telling us who we can and cannot trade with.

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Interest rates are a red herring here IMO. Best for another thread.

---------- Post added at 18:40 ---------- Previous post was at 18:39 ----------

Although the EU does do other trade agreements, i.e the Japan one, by the far the most valuable one is the EU itself.

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I think we pretty much have a trade imbalance with lots of countries, not just the EU but also the US and others. Part of our problem is that free trade is easiest in manufactured goods and not services and we focus on the latter.

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Don't fret, Mr K. We ain't never going back! :D

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Maybe because we'll never 'really' leave ;) it's got all the all the signs of BRINO.

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Exactly Mr K. You can't go back when you're still there. :D

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We will either leave the EU with a good deal for Britain and the EU, or we will transition into WTO rules.

Staying in the EU is not an option because that would be seen as a betrayal of the electorate.

I'm surprised we are still talking about staying in the EU! That's not going to happen.

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With the current political instability, no-body can be certain as to what is going to happen.

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Exactly, the only certainty is uncertainty.

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You may find this recent Twitter thread informative (it’s from someone who was a WTO negotiator).

tl:dr - it’s not that simple (or easy)

https://mobile.twitter.com/DmitryOpi...80819464101888

Some of his points



---------- Post added at 15:11 ---------- Previous post was at 15:10 ----------

Not sure about that... ;)

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Europe really doesn't need us as much as we need them


But the facts speak for themselves: We are 65 million of a bloc of 450 million. Ours is a $2.9trn (£2.2trn) economy, they are $19trn (£14.6trn) They represent 44% of our exports. We, just 9% of theirs. They are 27 - we are one

https://news.sky.com/story/europe-re...-them-11462776

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Factually spot on. I would be interested to hear what Brexit protagonists make of this demolition of their argument that the EU27 need us more than we need them.

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I don't think sensible protagonists have ever thought that.

What they do think, is that we do a lot of trade with a lot of the other 27 that makes continuing to do the trade as easy as possible a sensible goal for all parties.

And us leaving, leaves a sizeable hole in the EU budget that the majority of the 27 are unable to fill.

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:clap::clap::clap:

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Well put, Pierre.

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I read in a newspaper analysis today(I forget which) something that absolutely chimed with me. It was in relation to the EU breaking Article 8 (and indeed Article 50) by not negotiating with us to bring about a decent agreement.

The article highlighted the difference between the UK which has a flexible unwritten constitution and the rest of the EU that are rules based in their Treaty documents and thus totally inflexible. Aka we look alike but don't think alike.

Put that into the mix with the Guvmin's total bodge job, a Canada style deal is something we should jump at just to get the job done. Except that they want to tie up the £39 billion first and May now cannot give them that scot free and survive.

But the political situation here is so volatile, and the Chequers deal must not be allowed to survive, that it's either going to be a fudge or a political change and a second referendum.

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Article 8 cannot have anything to do with Article 50 and Brexit negotiations or at least I cannot connect the "respect for family and private life, home and correspondence" to be any part of them.

There is a point about Article 50 (2)

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James O'Brien making a good but slightly mischievous point:

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status...82499246178304

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For what my opinion is worth, the two join because “future relationship” has Article 8 context.

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The simple answer is that the electorate voted to leave. That means we either leave with a deal with the EU which does not impact on our ability to forge new trade deals or we leave under WTO rules. That's how it works. No point in nit-picking, we just have to get on and do it.

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What exactly do you perceive to be wrong with the Chequers deal, or are you just relying on the reaction of the Brexiteers?

The only thing about it that bothers me is the 'common rulebook' because I can't make out if that would only apply to goods to and from the EU or whether it would apply to all trade that we do with other countries as well.

If the former, this is just like any comprehensive trade deal we might enter into with any country. If the latter, it is unacceptable.

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OB, you choose to ignore the point made :) Let me restate it: some people voted Leave because the EU was "undemocratic" and they did not want to have laws/rules imposed by a foreign agency.

The WTO conforms to the same criteria so you must have an objection to following rules made by a foreign, undemocratic institution, right?

---------- Post added at 14:04 ---------- Previous post was at 13:56 ----------

I know that some will not read this on principle but if you do, you will be glad you did. This is a Twitter thread from a former Tory discussing why some of the "facts" that formed the basis of the Leave campaign are just plainly wrong and more importantly why the promised low tax, free-market Brexit promised land is a simple con trick:

Adam, let me present you with some comparative economics, and then you tell me whether ANY Tory (and I was one) has your interests at heart. I'm going to compare the UK with our partners in Europe. Firstly, we WERE the fifth largest world economy. Remember that.

You may still not wish to change your opinion but at least you would be able to explain to us why this analysis is wrong.

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Looks to me like just another 'has been' spouting stuff on a social message board.

Incidentally, it's all old news anyway ;)

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The WTO rules apply to trade only the cannot have any effect on laws unlike the EU.

The UK has been a member of the WTO since its inception in 1995 and were members of its predecessor GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) formed in 1947.

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Exactly. He's just being perverse.

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Perverse? Not really, I am pointing out the inconsistency in some of the arguments used to Leave. It is true that some did not like having to follow certain rules made in Brussels but would be happy to follow rules, on trade, made in Geneva.

What is frightening is how so many people can ignore the complexity and lack of preparedness of a No Deal scenario and, actually want it to happen.

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You cannot surely compare the over-bureaucratic, over-codified rules of the EU with the straight forward rules of WTO! That's what is perverse.

My position is that we should accept Theresa May's 'common rulebook' idea for trading with the EU, but not for trading with the rest of the world. That's in the same way that we might agree on different 'common rulebooks' for each country that we deal with. Enforcement of such rules in relation to EU trade should be similar to the way rules are enforced for trade deals with other countries.

All trade deals have agreed positions on specifications, tariffs, safety, etc, and that's what I mean by a 'common rulebook'.

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You don't know that, you only know what the EU's argument is. However, being a negotiation, they may well back down, particularly if the UK Government can figure out a way to persuade them.

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You obviously didn’t read my earlier post...

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...6#post35958246

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I think that post is proving a bit of an inconvenient truth. ;)

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There are many inconvenient truths in this country Andrew but some seem to close their eyes to them in the hope they will disappear and go way. ;)

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Heads in the sand, anything but declare they got it wrong ! The blame game will be next and is already happening - May, the EU, Remainers, immigrants, anybody but the person in the mirror !

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That was written by a guy who thought the WTO rules were toothless. That may be the case, but they are nowhere near as complicated and onerous as EU rules, which was my point.

Anyway, in the end, we are seeking to make trade deals, are we not?

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That was written by a guy who negotiated WTO deals and tariffs - so he probably knows his subject matter.

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The original author has also covered the issues specifically for Transport:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DmitryOpi...81440004485120

One of his final thoughts:



---------- Post added at 13:00 ---------- Previous post was at 12:54 ----------

The author of the Tweet thread above links the EU site where they have issued a whole set of preparedness notices for all the sectors likely to impacted:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/bre...ess-notices_en

A few of note:

Road Transport

Maritime Transport

Air Transport

Cannot seem find out equivalent web page ...

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His only loyalty to this country is obviously to his pocket it seems.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...k-move-monaco/

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ax-free-monaco

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To be fair, if I was worth £21bn the Côte d’Azur would be a damn site more attractive than Bolton :D


not that I'm dissing Bolton you understand ;)

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He comes up Zero on a google search. That's about as much research I was willing to do. If I type in my name I appear on at least the 2nd page of a google search.

I'm not saying he didn't do WTO negotiations but I couldn't verify his credentials, have you been able verify anything? Or were you just going off an unsubstantiated social media post?

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What name did you Google? I get loads: https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Dm...hrome&ie=UTF-8


There is the link to his page at the organisation for which he now works (his bio says he worked for the Australians at the WTO): https://www.ictsd.org/about-us/dmitry-grozoubinski

An Economist article in which he is quoted: https://www.economist.com/finance-an...a-looks-likely

Also he seems to be all across a number of Australian Government websites with a gov e-mail address.

Also LinkedIn, Twitter, other random stuff....

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As Damien says Subject Matter Expert...

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If you further down the search results you get meetings where he was listed as a participant as the negotiator to the WTO too.

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My only explanation for anyone who didn't get loads of results with the name "Dmitry Grozoubinski" is that they must have enabled the Chrome Brexit add-in to their browsers :)

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Russian agent, mate.

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Or misspelt the name....

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Heck yeah, everyone else seems to think there's one on every street corner so it's entirely feasible :D

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Rep should have read “Dmitry in Dr. Strangelove!”

---------- Post added at 14:23 ---------- Previous post was at 14:20 ----------

Why hasn’t OB been on to tell us that May’s approach is making the EU 27 rethink (yesterday’s Torygraph)?

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Fair enough, obviously a cock up at my end. Which doesn't sound right once you've typed it.

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Original Times story on red link. (Paywall)

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Another article, by Gavin Eslar, worth the read:

Veteran BBC journalist GAVIN ESLER delivers an excoriating blast against broadcasters, Leavers and the lies that have left the country a more divided, poorer place.

You may, and some will, disagree with his views on Brexit but please listen to some of the points he is making about the people who have orchestrated this whole campaign.

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British jobs for British people. What's there not to like?

Now what was it that the architects of Project Fear predicted, Oh yes: "Vote for Brexit and you’d start a recession the likes of which you couldn’t imagine, they said.":dozey:

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When you need care in your old age, those hordes of industrious British workers will be queuing up.... ( If they exist, they'll probably be nearly the same age as you ! ) And if the Polish brickies go home they'll be no new houses that we desperately need - we don't have enough UK labourers, just benefit claimants.....

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FFS stop being so bloody negative!

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 

It's better than the Sun reported to be honest. Looking at the ONS figures;

UK Nationals 332,000 up
EU Nationals 86,000 down
Non-EU nationals 74,000 up

That's a net rise of 320,000 jobs. Don't know why the Sun didn't mention those non-EU national jobs there..

Interestingly, wage growth was softer than expected. Market economics suggest with higher employment, wages should grow but the growth after inflation went from 0.2% to 0.1%

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We wouldn't need "Polish Brickies" to build houses if there wasn't hundreds of thousands of immigrants coming to our tiny island every year.

So your ideology to solve the UK Benefit claimant issue, is to flood the UK workforce with unlimited immigrants, which in turn causes wage stagnation, low wages, creates a massive housing shortage, causes rises in house prices, which in turn has caused Homelessness.

Homelessness in the UK is increasing every year with thousands sleeping rough in cities and towns, but we seem to want to give Romanians/Polish/Bulgarians, and my issue is, there are many, who don't ever seem to want to work, they then breed and produce anchor babies/children with a nice cushy sum every month and a roof over their heads. Oh and they seem to have this habit of wanting to fight each other, late on at night for some reason. I have absolutely no issue with anybody foreign, coming here to better their lives, but as long as they come that is of benefit to our country and provide a service.

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Yet somehow, the employment rate of EU nationals is higher than UK nationals and the unemployment rate is lower (the difference being 'economically inactive') See ONS report here - https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...rmarket/latest

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But no-one has ever focused on this fact as it is just very inconvenient to the Brexit debate. Just look at the chart:

Attachment 27509

As you say, where are the headlines complaining about non-EU migrant taking our jobs, taking our housing and clogging up GP's ?

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Got to say. Whoever came up with this is a genius
https://twitter.com/SarahDuggers/sta...122659328?s=19

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That's an interesting theory ; sort of a "we need the Polish to build the houses so that the houses can be lived in, by the Polish"...

Kind of like with Trump:

"We're gonna kick out dim Mexicans!"

Q: How?

Trump:

"By building a wall!"

Q: Who is going to build the wall?

Trump:

"The illegal labor force of Mexicans!"

Illegals building a wall, to keep out the illegals...

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As Bircho has said, Genius!