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Ignitionnet 29-06-2016 23:26
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Okay, here ya go.

These are the work of Alex White, @AlexWhite1812, Director of Country Analysis at the Economist Intelligence Unit and his team.

Spoiler: 
Quote:
EIU Brexit Take

1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained

2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy

3. We significantly revised our economic forecast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/06/3.jpg

4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24

5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/06/4.jpg

6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/06/5.jpg

7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)

8. While this is going on, politics will remain deeply fractious. The Govt, the main parties, parliament & the Union all face big threats

9. We expect two months of chaos in the near-term. New PM Johnson (or May) will be in post in Sept, and start to figure out way ahead

10. The UK will likely invoke Art 50 before year end, implying that negotiations will conclude in late 2018

11. UK will agree an EEA minus deal with significant constraints on services access in return for limitations on migration

12. Much of the financial services sector may be left in the cold

13. New PM will eat heroic quantities of humble pie to get the deal; UK will be permanently out of the room on big decisions

14: This new deal will be confirmed through either a second referendum or a general election at the end of the process

15. Leavers will tell voters they wont get what they want on migration. Will lead to major backlash = structural rise for radical right

16. This is a particular threat for Labour. We expect UKIP etc to mount a serious challenge in Labour heartlands (even with Corbyn gone)

17. UK establishment will take time to fully reassert itself. Lack of planning / credibility will lead to ongoing doubts about capacity

18. Much of the UK's 'political stability premium' based on predictability / reliability etc could be lost for long time

19. As UK leaves, recovery will be underway but economy & politics will look structurally different

20. We are not predicting second Scot ref at this stage, but constitutional settlement needs to change (inc London / FPTP?)

21. Impacts across Europe will be substantial. We have taken 0.2% off growth and see larger political risks – particularly in Italy/France

22. The region is capable of managing Brexit, and other crises in isolation. It may not be capable of managing several crises at once

23. We expect things to hold together, but see major downside risks – include possibility EU wont deal, or that crises spin out of control

Arthurgray50@blu 29-06-2016 23:26
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Don't like to say this. BUT, and MP has tonight has said that Parliament should have the guts to overrule the OUT vote. And remain in the EU.

Eve though we have voted to go from the EU. It has to be passed in Parliament.
And that could be why, they have not activated '50' yet.

And with all the Demos, and MPs saying that they will overrule it. Says something

RichardCoulter 29-06-2016 23:34
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35846994)
I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficient wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.
Thoughts?
Excellent idea. We should do this not only to EU migrants, but with every immigrant.

It should be less about what help we can give to them and more about what they have to offer that can help the UK.

Ignitionnet 29-06-2016 23:34
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthurgray50@blu (Post 35847053)
Don't like to say this. BUT, and MP has tonight has said that Parliament should have the guts to overrule the OUT vote. And remain in the EU.

Eve though we have voted to go from the EU. It has to be passed in Parliament.
And that could be why, they have not activated '50' yet.

And with all the Demos, and MPs saying that they will overrule it. Says something
So triggering article 50 is currently rated at 5/2 on Sky Bet. 2018 or later, or never, is at 3/1.

I suspect it would take something catastrophic for 50 to not be triggered this year. We'll see.

Damien 29-06-2016 23:37
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847052)
Okay, here ya go.

These are the work of Alex White, @AlexWhite1812, Director of Country Analysis at the Economist Intelligence Unit and his team.
The prospect of gains for the far-right if immigration isn't now curbed is a serious concern.

I do wonder why they're so convinced the government will accept a deal that tanks the banking sector though. Economic madness if we do that.

Ignitionnet 29-06-2016 23:44
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35847058)
The prospect of gains for the far-right if immigration isn't now curbed is a serious concern.

I do wonder why they're so convinced the government will accept a deal that tanks the banking sector though. Economic madness if we do that.
Because free movement is a red line on both sides, and services easiest place to 'compromise'. Incomplete free movement = incomplete single market access.

They clearly read the stuff coming out of Paris too.

RizzyKing 29-06-2016 23:45
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Why can't the EU just realise that if it sticks to the current plan they will be responsible for the collapse sooner rather then later no matter how hard the call for reform is they just ignore it and carry on. There will be more votes and I think more will vote to leave how many will it take for them to listen or is it hands over ears time regardless of how nations are feeling

Let's not pretend that good news is constantly brewing within the EU things might have been focusing on the farce in the uk but eventually the bad news will start coming from the EU again.

RBMark 29-06-2016 23:45
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Remainers and the government still do not understand the Leave vote, they've tried Leave is racist, they've tried Leave is uneducated, an they've tried Leavers regret it.

They are still quoting the FTSE 100/250, they're saying house prices will fall, they're saying the banks will leave the UK, they're saying Pensions will fall.

But when you're talking to millions of white, black, Asian , straight , gay, lesbian, trans people who don't have shares, only dream of being able to pay into a pension and have no hope of ever buying their home, an who have only ever seen thelocal branch of their bank close forget having job opportunitys with them you need to think a little bit more.

You're telling people with nothing they face having nothing, Remainers wake up... I understand you no longer understand the UK, but unfortunately you're going to have to find away of understanding it.

Damien 29-06-2016 23:48
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847059)
Because free movement is a red line on both sides, and services easiest place to 'compromise'. Incomplete free movement = incomplete single market access.

They clearly read the stuff coming out of Paris too.
Still don't see it happening. They'll concede other things before the City imo. First of all there is the obvious economic downside but even aside from that it's not as if these corporations are powerless, they'll throw their weight around to get what they want.

Ignitionnet 29-06-2016 23:52
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35847060)
Why can't the EU just realise that if it sticks to the current plan they will be responsible for the collapse sooner rather then later no matter how hard the call for reform is they just ignore it and carry on. There will be more votes and I think more will vote to leave how many will it take for them to listen or is it hands over ears time regardless of how nations are feeling

Let's not pretend that good news is constantly brewing within the EU things might have been focusing on the farce in the uk but eventually the bad news will start coming from the EU again.
The bad news hasn't stopped, we're just exceptionally self-absorbed for the foreseeable future here.

We'll see just how much trouble our vote causes in the longer term. Obviously there will be a rush of calls from those empowered by the UK's decision. The Netherlands at least has already put the issue to bed.

---------- Post added at 22:52 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35847062)
Still don't see it happening. They'll concede other things before the City imo. First of all there is the obvious economic downside but even aside from that it's not as if these corporations are powerless, they'll throw their weight around to get what they want.
They'll get what they want. They'll be offered incentives to leave the UK and move to the passported area.

Damien 29-06-2016 23:54
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847064)
They'll get what they want. They'll be offered incentives to leave the UK and move to the passported area.
Maybe. I think though, in the end, the politicians will rather upset those concerned over immigration rather than the middle-classes or bankers who are more likely to be hit by trading away banking. Especially the Tories, if we're being ultra-cynical a angry vote from declining industrial towns hit by immigration is far more likely to harm Labour than the Conservatives.

If there is one thing that seems to hold true across politics is that these people are constantly overlooked by the left and right.

ianch99 29-06-2016 23:57
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847052)
Okay, here ya go.

These are the work of Alex White, @AlexWhite1812, Director of Country Analysis at the Economist Intelligence Unit and his team.
Whoa, stop right there .. is this dude an "expert" by any chance?

Gavin78 29-06-2016 23:57
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Who cares about the experts they predict stuff like the weather

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 00:01
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35847067)
Maybe. I think though, in the end, the politicians will rather upset those concerned over immigration rather than the middle-classes or bankers who are more likely to be hit by trading away banking. Especially the Tories, if we're being ultra-cynical a angry vote from declining industrial towns hit by immigration is far more likely to harm Labour than the Conservatives.

If there is one thing that seems to hold true across politics is that these people are constantly overlooked by the left and right.
It's a no-win situation for sure. This side of 2020 there is genuinely no happy ending and, even after that, there's no doubt our economy and politics will be quite different.

I don't like it but losing financial services will affect pretty much everyone so should be protected at basically any cost, but that relies on a degree of pragmatism that I'm not sure is still there in either public or politicians.

---------- Post added at 23:01 ---------- Previous post was at 23:00 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35847068)
Whoa, stop right there .. is this dude an "expert" by any chance?
Looks that way, so should be ignored. Project Fear at work.

ianch99 30-06-2016 00:02
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35847056)
Excellent idea. We should do this not only to EU migrants, but with every immigrant.

It should be less about what help we can give to them and more about what they have to offer that can help the UK.
You therefore agree that any Brit abroad would have the same rules applied to them? Seems fair ..

Hugh 30-06-2016 00:06
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 35847069)
Who cares about the experts they predict stuff like the weather
Who cares about experts when they are doctors or engineers or architects or pilots...

Strangely enough, Michael Gove's wife disagrees with you
Quote:
Wouldn’t it be nice if instead of wingeing and raging about the outcome of a democratic vote which, let’s face it, one side held all the cards and still managed to lose, the clever people of Facebook would turn their thoughts to making this a positive moment for the country by offering to lend advice and expertise.
Oxford English Dictionary of expertise - "Expert skill or knowledge in a particular field"

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 00:07
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35847074)
You therefore agree that any Brit abroad would have the same rules applied to them? Seems fair ..
Not sure retirees in Spain who'll need to purchase extremely expensive private healthcare as they're no longer covered by Spain's health system will agree.

RBMark 30-06-2016 00:45
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847077)
Not sure retirees in Spain who'll need to purchase extremely expensive private healthcare as they're no longer covered by Spain's health system will agree.
Who says they won't be covered by some kind of healthcare agreement, after all the Spanish living in the UK will still want NHS care as will the Eastern Europeans, Germans, French......But anyway, where is your source/link to the fact retirees in Spain will need "extremely expensive private healthcare"?

I'm sure us British citizens can make sure if the worst comes to the worst that our NHS will cover the cost of UK immigrants in the EU.

The UK is full of loving caring amazing people, shouted down by London loving slaves to the banking sector selfish individuals!

---------- Post added at 23:45 ---------- Previous post was at 23:39 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35847067)
Maybe. I think though, in the end, the politicians will rather upset those concerned over immigration rather than the middle-classes or bankers who are more likely to be hit by trading away banking. Especially the Tories, if we're being ultra-cynical a angry vote from declining industrial towns hit by immigration is far more likely to harm Labour than the Conservatives.

If there is one thing that seems to hold true across politics is that these people are constantly overlooked by the left and right.
I disagree, a UKIP white wash in some areas of the UK puts the fear of God into the Torys and as for Labour , they're gone/forgotten. No Brexit= UKIP Taking over 100 seats in parliament. UKIP will be the official opposition at worst, potentially.... Well let's wait and see...............

RizzyKing 30-06-2016 01:34
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
How we have fallen when ukip is the answer to anything.

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 01:36
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35847087)
How we have fallen when ukip is the answer to anything.
Your user title says it all, Sir.

Kursk 30-06-2016 02:14
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35846994)
I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficient wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.
Thoughts?
There might be some mileage in this. In fact, but not wishing to steal your thunder, I vaguely recall the Mayor of Calais suggesting our benefits were too attractive. Perhaps if we agree to match the benefits being offered by other EU member states, say Estonia, Latvia or Greece, we wouldn't fall foul of the "rules" either?

And I don't think we should limit it to Europeans.

Well done on coming up with a practical suggestion.

RichardCoulter 30-06-2016 04:18
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35847074)
You therefore agree that any Brit abroad would have the same rules applied to them? Seems fair ..
Absolutely, yes, but I don't think it will affect that many Brits.

Eg British pensioners go to Spain to retire, their pension is paid for by us. They normally buy a home in new build English communities and bring money into the country.

Someone coming over from abroad, however, normally needs to take a job and a scarce rented property.

Immigrants can no longer claim Jobseekers Allowance as soon as they come here, but they are still able to claim in work benefits like Housing Benefit, Council Tax Reduction, Working Tax Credits, Child Tax Credits, Child Benefit etc.

In work actually means working over 16 hours a week. This is often abused by people saying that they are self employed for two days a week eg Big Issue sellers, scrap metal collecting etc.

Jimmy-J 30-06-2016 05:58
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Brexit won the vote, but I can't see it happening.

ntluser 30-06-2016 08:05
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
The £ has stabilised and share values are on the rise. The longer we wait to declare our position the more worried those in the EU will be and potentially they will be more amenable to a deal that everybody is happy with.

I think it will be better if we couch our bid in terms that do not apply just to the UK so that we do not appear to EU members to be those greedy Brits trying to make a great deal just for themselves. We need to tap into the dissatisfaction in other EU countries and in proposing our terms need to give support to those other EU countries with similar problems.

The deal with France concerning the Channel Tunnel demonstrates that where a common problem exists a shared solution, co-operation and teamwork is a great way to satisfy everybody's needs.

TheDaddy 30-06-2016 09:02
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamiefrost (Post 35846983)
Passporting is not about banks moving headquarters, it's about the inability of UK banks to work within the EU, how would we not notice the loss to GDP?

J

Because it wouldn't happen imediately but over time. There won't be a banking exodus but there won't be a boom either, it'll just stagnate while frankfurt and Dublin get all the new business.

---------- Post added at 07:52 ---------- Previous post was at 07:51 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35846994)
I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficient wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.
Thoughts?
Isn't that what this living wage was all about?

---------- Post added at 08:02 ---------- Previous post was at 07:52 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35847068)
Whoa, stop right there .. is this dude an "expert" by any chance?
Better not be, Britain has had enough of experts

https://next.ft.com/content/3be49734...4-abc22d5d108c

We prefer to ignore them and blunder in

ntluser 30-06-2016 09:09
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
We also need to remember that immigrants are victims in this too and that the situation has been generated by the government's failure to manage the immigration numbers.

If British Nationals could get jobs, have easy access to doctor's appointments and put their children in a school of their choice the situation would be far less tense.

Unfortunately, that's not the case and that is why we are where we are.

RBMark 30-06-2016 09:24
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
YouGov poll (yes polls get it wrong) shows Britain against second referendum 2 to 1. Also I've been reading country's outside the EU including Australia, New Zeleand, India,Mexico and many others "queuing" up for trade deals witb the UK. Good news for Britian as the EU is 16% of worldwide trade, even less once Britian leaves. We're now free to do our own trade deals with other 86%.

An as for the back of the queue statement from the USA, it's expected our trade with the US to become more valuable as the "like minded" countries deal direct.

Expect lots of doom and gloom over the coming months before article 50 is started. Project fear stage 2 is in full swing. But again it will be all words.

heero_yuy 30-06-2016 09:57
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
BRITAIN’S biggest companies completed a remarkable post-Brexit recovery last night and closed on a two-month high.

The FTSE 100 index of blue chip firms surged by 3.6 per cent, rising 220 points to 6360.

Its rally took it above its recent high of last Thursday evening, when it was not yet known that the UK had voted to leave the EU.

It has now clawed back the £85billion losses it suffered last Friday and on Monday in just two days.

Sterling remains way down on the dollar, but it too is showing signs of recovery, with £1 last night worth nearly $1.35 against its low of $1.30.

Business leaders, even those in the Remain camp, rallied round *yesterday to say the UK had a strong future in a post-Brexit world.
Linky

Markets go up and down all the time. BREXIT doom has just evaporated.;)

RBMark 30-06-2016 10:09
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Yeah, all will be fine. The EU's own data suggests in 2014 the EU (to put it simply) sold us £360Billion worth of goods and services. The EU as a trading bloc cannot lose that sort of trade.

We will leave the EU and get what we want, Juncker is just power crazy, I guess being prime minister of Luxembourg wasn't enough with its population of less then 1 million and a GDP of only £58billion. When he resigns it's going to be quite a bump back to reality for him i suspect.

***BREAKING****
Gove to stand for PM saying "Boris Johnston cannot Provide the leadership for the task ahead".

Damien 30-06-2016 10:16
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Gove has changed it's mind!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36671336

Quote:
Justice Secretary Michael Gove to stand for Conservative Party leadership and UK PM, BBC understands


---------- Post added at 09:16 ---------- Previous post was at 09:12 ----------

BTW Gove will probably get the support of The Sun and the Mail as Murdoch is keen on him as is Darce....

Boris is in trouble now. He was already trailing behind May....

Maggy 30-06-2016 10:22
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Hell no!Say it isn't so..I've been fairly ambivalent towards Cameron. However I don't feel that way about Gove..

Quote:
He said he was standing because he had come "to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead".
Supreme example of a backstabbing..

pip08456 30-06-2016 10:24
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2D8MB5s8Jg

Damien 30-06-2016 10:25
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35847113)
Hell no!Say it isn't so..I've been fairly ambivalent towards Cameron. However I don't feel that way about Gove..



Supreme example of a backstabbing..
I have always thought Cameron was ok. Wouldn't mind May. Can't stand Gove though.

ianch99 30-06-2016 10:28
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
The Gover's new campaign tag line :)

Quote:
You can trust a Tory!

ntluser 30-06-2016 10:29
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Just seen Liam Fox on the TV and if Boris does not get the PM job Liam looks like a good substitute as he sounds like he is prepared to kickass with the EU if they start messing us around and is prepared to broker trade deals with the rest of the world.

Nicola Sturgeon should hold fire until she sees what deals can be done.

As for Gove, it's political opportunism. Boris has fronted the Leave campaign and now may not get the PM job. However, because Gove was not brave enough to be in the firing line like Boris and Liam he may get sidelined and deservedly so. Fortune favours the brave.

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 10:35
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35847095)
Immigrants can no longer claim Jobseekers Allowance as soon as they come here, but they are still able to claim in work benefits like Housing Benefit, Council Tax Reduction, Working Tax Credits, Child Tax Credits, Child Benefit etc.

In work actually means working over 16 hours a week. This is often abused by people saying that they are self employed for two days a week eg Big Issue sellers, scrap metal collecting etc.
That strikes me as a deficiency in our welfare system that we could've fixed had we been bothered to. :(

---------- Post added at 09:32 ---------- Previous post was at 09:30 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35847107)
Linky

Markets go up and down all the time. BREXIT doom has just evaporated.;)
We've at least 4 years of pain ahead. That's just the initial shock over and some benefits to our top companies, as they make most of their money abroad, from Sterling bombing.

The domestic economy will continue to weaken and will go into recession if it's not there already shortly.

---------- Post added at 09:35 ---------- Previous post was at 09:32 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by ntluser (Post 35847118)
Just seen Liam Fox on the TV and if Boris does not get the PM job Liam looks like a good substitute as he sounds like he is prepared to kickass with the EU if they start messing us around and is prepared to broker trade deals with the rest of the world.
Boris is an affable, intelligent man with no finesse or focus.

Liam Fox may bluster but he knows as well as anyone that the EU hold the good cards in the discussion and it'll be damage limitation as far as those negotiations go.

It's campaign season again. Argh.

denphone 30-06-2016 10:36
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35847113)
Hell no!Say it isn't so..I've been fairly ambivalent towards Cameron. However I don't feel that way about Gove..



Supreme example of a backstabbing..
Politicians all over sadly.

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 10:37
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntluser (Post 35847104)
We also need to remember that immigrants are victims in this too and that the situation has been generated by the government's failure to manage the immigration numbers.

If British Nationals could get jobs, have easy access to doctor's appointments and put their children in a school of their choice the situation would be far less tense.

Unfortunately, that's not the case and that is why we are where we are.
Victims of the government's failure to properly provision services perhaps.

There are a bunch of countries handling far more migrants per head.

denphone 30-06-2016 10:39
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35847116)
The Gover's new campaign tag line :)
Yep place our faith in mendacious and duplicitous politicians and it will all be fine and dandy in the end.:rolleyes:

ntluser 30-06-2016 10:48
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
As we have seen a week is a long time in politics.

If the EU do that much trade with us they cannot afford for us to go into recession and it does appear that if the UK government organises itself better we can not only avoid recession but also address UK nationals concerns about immigration now that we know what the problems are and where they are.

It's just a matter of doing things in a well thought out systematic way and with a degree of haste so that the UK public can see the government is listening and is taking action to remedy their concerns in a prompt manner.

---------- Post added at 09:48 ---------- Previous post was at 09:43 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847124)
Victims of the government's failure to properly provision services perhaps.

There are a bunch of countries handling far more migrants per head.
Agreed, but given the anti-EU feelings expressed in Europe are the EU making the same mistakes as the UK because leaders are out of touch with the electorate?

Maybe we need to look at how other EU countries are handling immigration and come up with a policy for best practice.

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 10:53
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntluser (Post 35847126)
Agreed, but given the anti-EU feelings expressed in Europe are the EU making the same mistakes as the UK because leaders are out of touch with the electorate?

Maybe we need to look at how other EU countries are handling immigration and come up with a policy for best practice.
I don't think anyone is having a good time of it with regards to migration at the moment.

The world is a lot smaller than it used to be.

ntluser 30-06-2016 11:05
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847129)
I don't think anyone is having a good time of it with regards to migration at the moment.

The world is a lot smaller than it used to be.
Might that suggest we all have a common problem that we all need to discuss and address.

Countries do need breathing space to allocate resources and make provision for immigrants but at present they are arriving in many EU countries in overwhelming numbers and probably in locations where the locals feels oppressed and resentful.

RBMark 30-06-2016 11:18
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
AFP: A European sources says the EU has agreed to open a new negotiating chapter with Turkey on its bid for EU membership.

ntluser 30-06-2016 11:27
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RBMark (Post 35847133)
AFP: A European sources says the EU has agreed to open a new negotiating chapter with Turkey on its bid for EU membership.
Given that we can't cope with the existing number of migrants we have in the EU how does it help to make the EU even bigger?

heero_yuy 30-06-2016 11:30
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RBMark (Post 35847133)
AFP: A European sources says the EU has agreed to open a new negotiating chapter with Turkey on its bid for EU membership.
Kept that back until after our referendum. :rolleyes:

What other EU nonsence is in the wings I wonder?

Big Brian 30-06-2016 11:55
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35847067)
Maybe. I think though, in the end, the politicians will rather upset those concerned over immigration rather than the middle-classes or bankers who are more likely to be hit by trading away banking. Especially the Tories, if we're being ultra-cynical a angry vote from declining industrial towns hit by immigration is far more likely to harm Labour than the Conservatives.

If there is one thing that seems to hold true across politics is that these people are constantly overlooked by the left and right.
Not if Boris is PM. No way will he accept freedom of movement. He'd probably tell them to get stuffed first.

---------- Post added at 10:50 ---------- Previous post was at 10:47 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by RBMark (Post 35847105)
YouGov poll (yes polls get it wrong) shows Britain against second referendum 2 to 1. Also I've been reading country's outside the EU including Australia, New Zeleand, India,Mexico and many others "queuing" up for trade deals witb the UK. Good news for Britian as the EU is 16% of worldwide trade, even less once Britian leaves. We're now free to do our own trade deals with other 86%.

An as for the back of the queue statement from the USA, it's expected our trade with the US to become more valuable as the "like minded" countries deal direct.

Expect lots of doom and gloom over the coming months before article 50 is started. Project fear stage 2 is in full swing. But again it will be all words.
Indeed. Tell them to go to Hell if we don't get a deal without freedom of movement. Ghana said yesterday they wanted to trade with us. Who needs the single market anyway. If the Germans still want to sell cars to us then they better play ball.

---------- Post added at 10:55 ---------- Previous post was at 10:50 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by ntluser (Post 35847131)
Might that suggest we all have a common problem that we all need to discuss and address.

Countries do need breathing space to allocate resources and make provision for immigrants but at present they are arriving in many EU countries in overwhelming numbers and probably in locations where the locals feels oppressed and resentful.
For the life of me, I 'l never understand how the EU couldn't see this coming. Some of us did as far back as the 70s. The main reason I and others voters voted against the Common Market is because we said it wouldn't end there. It would eventually turn into a USE with a lot of poorer countries joining and that would lead to mass migration. We were laughed at then. Ha they ain't laughing now as our good friend Nigel Ferage would say.

Gavin78 30-06-2016 12:09
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
I'm actually surprised at some of the names I am actually seeing popping up to be party leader.

Some of them I know by name but other than that who are you.

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 12:20
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35847135)
Kept that back until after our referendum. :rolleyes:

What other EU nonsence is in the wings I wonder?
Not really. It was known about months ago, is following a pre-determined timetable, and is a procedural thing.

Just no-one noticed as it didn't forward any agendas here. As soon as it became clear it could forward one the tabloids were all over it.

In other news the Prime Minister can't serve article 50 legally without an Act of Parliament.

---------- Post added at 11:20 ---------- Previous post was at 11:13 ----------

Unsure if sarcasm or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35847139)
Not if Boris is PM. No way will he accept freedom of movement. He'd probably tell them to get stuffed first.
He really wouldn't if the price were too high.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35847139)
Indeed. Tell them to go to Hell if we don't get a deal without freedom of movement. Ghana said yesterday they wanted to trade with us. Who needs the single market anyway. If the Germans still want to sell cars to us then they better play ball.
Are you really comparing a trade deal with Ghana to single market access?

We need the single market. You may have no problem cratering the economy to ensure no freedom of movement but it's not a view that's shared by politicians or businesses.

I would prefer not to be forced to emigrate because some jingoistic nut job blew a massive hole in our economy and landed my family with part of the bill to keep Johnny Foreigner out.

ianch99 30-06-2016 12:24
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Interesting Brexit fallout:

Brexit boosts calls for Australia to leave the Commonwealth

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2016/06/1.jpg

Quote:
Australia's republican movement says membership has surged in the wake of the Brexit vote, as Australians question the benefits of remaining part of “little Britain”.

An “AusExit” campaign, including calls to remove the Union Jack from the flag and remove the British monarch as head of state, has gained momentum since Friday, when Britain voted to leave the European Union.

RBMark 30-06-2016 12:25
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016...pensable-role/


Quote:
The Prime Minster did not specify the legal authority under which he believed he or his successors might invoke Article 50, but the typical answer will be obvious to constitutional lawyers: it is the royal prerogative, a collection of executive powers held by the Crown since medieval times, that exist unsupported by statute. The Prerogative is widely used in foreign affairs, which Parliament has largely left in the hands of the Government. The treaty-making prerogative of the Crown is one such area.

If the Prime Minister is correct, and the Prerogative is the basis for the declaration, he enjoys complete discretion about when to issue the declaration: the trigger could be pulled in October, next year, or in ten years’ time.

Big Brian 30-06-2016 12:47
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847145)
Not really. It was known about months ago, is following a pre-determined timetable, and is a procedural thing.

Just no-one noticed as it didn't forward any agendas here. As soon as it became clear it could forward one the tabloids were all over it.

In other news the Prime Minister can't serve article 50 legally without an Act of Parliament.

---------- Post added at 11:20 ---------- Previous post was at 11:13 ----------

Unsure if sarcasm or not.



He really wouldn't if the price were too high.



Are you really comparing a trade deal with Ghana to single market access?

We need the single market. You may have no problem cratering the economy to ensure no freedom of movement but it's not a view that's shared by politicians or businesses.

I would prefer not to be forced to emigrate because some jingoistic nut job blew a massive hole in our economy and landed my family with part of the bill to keep Johnny Foreigner out.
Indeed not. I just mentioned it as another country queuing up to trade. I'm sure we can more than make any economic shortfall without being in the single market with the rest of the world.

---------- Post added at 11:41 ---------- Previous post was at 11:38 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35847148)
Well that's nothing new really. Don't they vote on it every few years and ditching the Queen as well? Anyhow, I doubt it will stop them trading with us.

---------- Post added at 11:47 ---------- Previous post was at 11:41 ----------

I don't think we really have anything to worry about in the long run. All this talk atm is just uncertainty coupled with the problems in Labour and Tory. I knew the Tories would crack and have a leadership election and should have seen it coming with Labour as I've said in here all along his heart wasn't in the campaign to stay. He's a life long Brexiter and you can't change that overnight. You know what they say. You can take the Catholic out of the Church but you can't take the Church out of the Catholic. I speak from experience here.

This was Corbyn's problem all along but I don't see the need for Labour to go as far as they did. It'll be a cold day in Hell before I vote for the main Parties again. I'll stick with UKIP for now as I have at past 2 elections and the Council ones too.

tweetiepooh 30-06-2016 12:51
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35847076)
Oxford English Dictionary of expertise - "Expert skill or knowledge in a particular field"
OR

Ex = "has been"
Spurt = "drip under pressure"

ergo
Exspurt = has been drip under pressure

ianch99 30-06-2016 12:57
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

Quote:
Boris Johnson: I'm not standing as Tory leader

Hugh 30-06-2016 13:06
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 35847154)
OR

Ex = "has been"
Spurt = "drip under pressure"

ergo
Exspurt = has been drip under pressure
So you don't use an expert doctor, dentist, car mechanic, electrician, gas fitter, etc. etc.?

tweetiepooh 30-06-2016 13:20
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
I'd expect all of those to have expertise in their fields but the idea of the exspurt is more often smoke and mirrors.

Gavin78 30-06-2016 13:29
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Would anyone mind if we had a new thread on political leaders challenge?

Damien 30-06-2016 13:31
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 35847158)
Would anyone mind if we had a new thread on political leaders challenge?
Go ahead.

Chris 30-06-2016 13:35
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
No Boris! :Yikes:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36672591

Hugh 30-06-2016 13:41
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 35847157)
I'd expect all of those to have expertise in their fields but the idea of the exspurt is more often smoke and mirrors.
Economists, meteorologists, IT people, and many other experts have the same challenge as doctors and airline pilots - people don't notice when you get it right, only when you get it wrong.

If you think economic experts get it wrong all the time, your bank account and pension are in serious danger, because the banks, insurance companies, and pension companies all base their work on economists and actuaries forecasts and predictions...

Damien 30-06-2016 13:43
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35847160)
Don't mess with Gove. :erm: Even by political standards that was brutal.

[img][/img]

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:41 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35847161)
Economists, meteorologists, IT people, and many other experts have the same challenge as doctors and airline pilots - people don't notice when you get it right, only when you get it wrong.
Don't tell me you trust so-called 'pilots'. :dozey: How many times has a plane piloted by the ordinary man, the decent man, the man on the street crashed? Now how many flown by these so-called 'professionals' crashed? Exactly.

denphone 30-06-2016 13:45
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
As someone said the other day he is too polarising and would not be able to unite people behind him.

Hugh 30-06-2016 13:45
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35847162)
Don't mess with Gove. :erm: Even by political standards that was brutal.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...06/1.jpg:small

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:41 ----------



Don't tell me you trust so-called 'pilots'. :dozey: How many times has a plane piloted by the ordinary man, the decent man, the man on the street crashed? Now how many flown by these so-called 'professionals' crashed? Exactly.
Thank you, Michael....

Damien 30-06-2016 13:48
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35847167)
Thank you, Michael....
awww :(

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...y-the-experts/

ntluser 30-06-2016 13:49
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
If nothing else we have heard Theresa May and Liam Fox say they are definitely committed to Brexit. It will be very interesting to see how the vote turns out.

Wonder how the EU feel now!!

Taf 30-06-2016 13:59
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Theresa May has been groomed for the PM post for quite a long time.

RBMark 30-06-2016 14:11
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taf (Post 35847171)
Theresa May has been groomed for the PM post for quite a long time.
She was also a "reluctant" Remain campaigner. As long ago as 2010 she was saying the UK could control immigration without hurting the economy.

denphone 30-06-2016 14:16
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
l doubt any of them can unite the party let alone unite this fractured and divided country.

Ramrod 30-06-2016 14:22
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Freedom of movement reform 'on the table' for Brexit talks, suggests French minister as he breaks ranks with rest of EU

RBMark 30-06-2016 14:29
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

The uncomfortable truth for the doom and gloomers and those that appear to want Britian to never stand tall is , Britian is an amazing nation. Populated by proud honest tolerant and decent people.

Britian has probably just saved the future of many proud nations, and changed the EU FOREVER and FOR THE BETTER. An in 20 years time I will be proud to say, I helped!

martyh 30-06-2016 14:37
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35847125)
Yep place our faith in mendacious and duplicitous politicians and it will all be fine and dandy in the end.:rolleyes:
You got "word of the day" toilet roll Den ,quite recently your wording is amazing me
:D

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35847161)
Economists, meteorologists, IT people, and many other experts have the same challenge as doctors and airline pilots - people don't notice when you get it right, only when you get it wrong.

If you think economic experts get it wrong all the time, your bank account and pension are in serious danger, because the banks, insurance companies, and pension companies all base their work on economists and actuaries forecasts and predictions...
I think the lack of trust in experts is down to Sky News ,some of the experts they reel out ........:rolleyes:

denphone 30-06-2016 14:44
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35847186)
You got "word of the day" toilet roll Den ,quite recently your wording is amazing me
:D
l have this website that sends me words of the day :eeek::spin: Marty and if one can learn a little bit every day then that's more then l ever learnt at school.

martyh 30-06-2016 14:55
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35847189)
l have this website that sends me words of the day :eeek::spin: Marty and if one can learn a little bit every day then that's more then l ever learnt at school.
Cheat ;)

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 15:03
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Of course. As mentioned several pages ago the French want our financial services sector.

Offer the British PM some flexibility on free movement in return for no passporting of financial services, political nightmare for a PM to deal with.

EDIT: Appreciate it's just a bunch of experts but think the stuff I copy/pasted from the EIU also stated this as the most likely course of events, incomplete single market access in return for restrictions on immigration.

Big Brian 30-06-2016 17:14
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Panic, What Panic? FT 100 Index up 52.0.

---------- Post added at 16:11 ---------- Previous post was at 16:10 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35847160)
Aye, guess we'll have to root for backstabbing Gover then? At least he's a Brexiter.

---------- Post added at 16:14 ---------- Previous post was at 16:11 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847193)
Of course. As mentioned several pages ago the French want our financial services sector.

Offer the British PM some flexibility on free movement in return for no passporting of financial services, political nightmare for a PM to deal with.

EDIT: Appreciate it's just a bunch of experts but think the stuff I copy/pasted from the EIU also stated this as the most likely course of events, incomplete single market access in return for restrictions on immigration.
No we need FULL immigration control.

ntluser 30-06-2016 17:14
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847193)
Of course. As mentioned several pages ago the French want our financial services sector.

Offer the British PM some flexibility on free movement in return for no passporting of financial services, political nightmare for a PM to deal with.

EDIT: Appreciate it's just a bunch of experts but think the stuff I copy/pasted from the EIU also stated this as the most likely course of events, incomplete single market access in return for restrictions on immigration.
Given that many EU countries are suffering from migration problems it could be to our advantage if we call for migration limits in all EU countries, thus making freedom of movement within limits a norm for everybody and thus not a special condition just for us.

Let's remember that failing to manage our immigrants is the fault of our government and therefore something in our gift to put right. Changes of policy and strategy by the UK could do a great deal to overcome the disadvantages for British nationals created by the presence of large numbers of immigrants.

Big Brian 30-06-2016 17:17
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntluser (Post 35847223)
Given that many EU countries are suffering from migration problems it could be to our advantage if we call for migration limits in all EU countries, thus making freedom of movement within limits a norm for everybody and thus not a special condition just for us.

Let's remember that failing to manage our immigrants is the fault of our government and therefore something in our gift to put right. Changes of policy and strategy by the UK could do a great deal to overcome the disadvantages for British nationals created by the presence of large numbers of immigrants.
It can't be done if we want an Australian Points System to control immigration. We may as well stay in the damn thing.

ntluser 30-06-2016 17:40
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35847225)
It can't be done if we want an Australian Points System to control immigration. We may as well stay in the damn thing.
It depends on what limits are agreed and the method used to decide who is admitted or not.

If the EU says that each EU country have to take say 100,000 immigrants but 200,000 want to come to England we can use the Australian Style points system to decide who comes.

That gives us the opportunity to find those immigrants not only of most use in our economy but also those who are financially self-supporting.

We can still use the Australian Style points system when vetting rest of the world immigrants and adjust numbers accordingly as it's not compulsory to admit them.

Then again it will depend on which candidate gets the job of PM given that quite a few have said "out is out" even Theresa May and they will be working on that premise.

If they come away with a deal that is miles better than Cameron's it will be a bonus as a Remain PM would probably have done a minor tweak to Cameron's and kept us in. At least some of these candidates are looking beyond the EU for trade deals which should give the EU something to think about.

Big Brian 30-06-2016 19:45
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntluser (Post 35847230)
It depends on what limits are agreed and the method used to decide who is admitted or not.

If the EU says that each EU country have to take say 100,000 immigrants but 200,000 want to come to England we can use the Australian Style points system to decide who comes.

That gives us the opportunity to find those immigrants not only of most use in our economy but also those who are financially self-supporting.

We can still use the Australian Style points system when vetting rest of the world immigrants and adjust numbers accordingly as it's not compulsory to admit them.

Then again it will depend on which candidate gets the job of PM given that quite a few have said "out is out" even Theresa May and they will be working on that premise.

If they come away with a deal that is miles better than Cameron's it will be a bonus as a Remain PM would probably have done a minor tweak to Cameron's and kept us in. At least some of these candidates are looking beyond the EU for trade deals which should give the EU something to think about.
Can't see them agreeing to that as it goes against full freedom of movement.

martyh 30-06-2016 20:27
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
This report by Michael Burrage would suggest that the single market has been somewhat of a hindrance to UK trade when compared to the common market years .Here's a few points from the report

Quote:
Exports of goods of the 12 founder members of the Single
Market to each other have been 14.6 per cent lower than they
would have been had they continued to grow exactly as they
had done under the Common Market, and are therefore
nowhere near the minister’s doubling claim
Quote:
UK exports of goods to the other 11 founder members have been
22.3 per cent lower, while to other OECD countries only 10.9 per
cent lower
Quote:
Exports of non-member OECD countries to the EU were just 2.05
per cent lower, and have therefore performed almost as well as
they did in the Common Market years.
Quote:
Thus the UK’s exports have grown and benefited least during
the Single Market, while those of non-member OECD countries
have grown and benefited most
Quote:
There is no evidence that the Single Market programme has
helped the exports of the UK or other founder member countries
to other OECD countries
http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/fi...andparadox.pdf

Ignitionnet 30-06-2016 20:48
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35847250)
This report by Michael Burrage would suggest that the single market has been somewhat of a hindrance to UK trade when compared to the common market years .Here's a few points from the report

http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/fi...andparadox.pdf
Seen that quoted a few times. The sub-title alone should indicate it's dicey.

Our goods exports were impacted in no small part by that we were transitioning to a services based economy. Our de-industrialisation is a policy started by Thatcher and continued by every government since, accelerated by Blair, nothing to do with the EU.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85905 is worth a look.

Regardless, though, we are where we are. Leaving something is far more damaging than never being in it and it will cost us profoundly if we can't get a deal.

It won't be the end of the world but we'll recover considerably more slowly after the upcoming recession if we can't get it sorted.

RBMark 30-06-2016 20:53
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
We really are in trouble......

So, browsing social media, various forums, YouTube ect I found some interesting things about the intelligent under 30 Remainers. Where do I start....

Some of the under 30 Remainers think the following things...

The EU created the NHS,
Britain tried to ban the sales of MILK but the EU made us keep selling it, I think this comes from the pints to litres thing.
You will now have to pay to travel around Europe by plane, train, ferry. They misunderstood the "free" movement of people.
Islam will be banned in Britain. Muslims were in Britian long before we joined the EU.
The EU give us free school meals.
The EU fund all university's. I suspect this is due to some EU funding being available.

It's all out there to have read, it's worrying lol.

RizzyKing 01-07-2016 00:37
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Many younger voters were quite off in some of their beliefs but in fairness no one is ever 100% right in every view they hold and some of us older one's become very entrenched in our beliefs and find new one's hard to accept. We have to remember how we were when we were younger all the energy in the world often supporting things for daft reasons that incurred the disdain of our elders. Better to talk to them and both parties gain an understanding of things then mock and derision.

I think we the public have been tearing into each other enough for a while we need to start rebuilding bridges and repairing our society and country until we have a way forward.

ntluser 01-07-2016 07:25
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35847292)
Many younger voters were quite off in some of their beliefs but in fairness no one is ever 100% right in every view they hold and some of us older one's become very entrenched in our beliefs and find new one's hard to accept. We have to remember how we were when we were younger all the energy in the world often supporting things for daft reasons that incurred the disdain of our elders. Better to talk to them and both parties gain an understanding of things then mock and derision.

I think we the public have been tearing into each other enough for a while we need to start rebuilding bridges and repairing our society and country until we have a way forward.
The difference is that older voters have known the EU from its inception and have seen it change over time and not in a direction they want to follow. Older voters take a more measured view.

Younger voters have only seen it and known it as it is now probably for all their lives. They did not see it as it used to be i.e just a trading area. They see the benefits for travel, low roaming charges etc. and are not really into the political dimension or the consequences of activity in this area. They see leaving the EU as losing the benefits.

Big Brian 01-07-2016 07:37
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35847250)
This report by Michael Burrage would suggest that the single market has been somewhat of a hindrance to UK trade when compared to the common market years .Here's a few points from the report











http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/fi...andparadox.pdf
Again I ask, do we really want the single market? I don't and I'm sure other leavers don't.

Anypermitedroute 01-07-2016 07:38
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RBMark (Post 35847253)
We really are in trouble......

So, browsing social media, various forums, YouTube ect I found some interesting things about the intelligent under 30 Remainers. Where do I start....

Some of the under 30 Remainers think the following things...

The EU created the NHS,
Britain tried to ban the sales of MILK but the EU made us keep selling it, I think this comes from the pints to litres thing.
You will now have to pay to travel around Europe by plane, train, ferry. They misunderstood the "free" movement of people.
Islam will be banned in Britain. Muslims were in Britian long before we joined the EU.
The EU give us free school meals.
The EU fund all university's. I suspect this is due to some EU funding being available.

It's all out there to have read, it's worrying lol.
Same could be said about the over 55 and some of "their" views :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Big Brian 01-07-2016 07:48
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847252)
Seen that quoted a few times. The sub-title alone should indicate it's dicey.

Our goods exports were impacted in no small part by that we were transitioning to a services based economy. Our de-industrialisation is a policy started by Thatcher and continued by every government since, accelerated by Blair, nothing to do with the EU.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85905 is worth a look.

Regardless, though, we are where we are. Leaving something is far more damaging than never being in it and it will cost us profoundly if we can't get a deal.

It won't be the end of the world but we'll recover considerably more slowly after the upcoming recession if we can't get it sorted.
The BoE did not say there 'Would Be' a recession. He will cause it if there is by lowering interest rates.

---------- Post added at 06:48 ---------- Previous post was at 06:40 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anypermitedroute (Post 35847302)
Same could be said about the over 55 and some of "their" views :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
In what way? We had nothing to build views on, it was only a trading area when we joined. Our views are only based on when the EU became a Political Union which contrary to popular belief was a lot earlier than the mid 90s.

RizzyKing 01-07-2016 08:36
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
My main point is rather then another round of "us vs them" we should explain to younger voters why things are not as simple as they currently view them as I've done with my daughter and her partner. I agree some younger voters supported remain based on non political or even wider economic reasons but as a leave voter that is fed up of people attacking my vote I think it would be hypocritical to turn round and do the same to younger voters. It's only my personal position that works for me and everyone else will do what works for them but it's time for attacks between the different sides to stop and for everyone to contribute towards the future.

Big Brian 01-07-2016 08:48
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35847305)
My main point is rather then another round of "us vs them" we should explain to younger voters why things are not as simple as they currently view them as I've done with my daughter and her partner. I agree some younger voters supported remain based on non political or even wider economic reasons but as a leave voter that is fed up of people attacking my vote I think it would be hypocritical to turn round and do the same to younger voters. It's only my personal position that works for me and everyone else will do what works for them but it's time for attacks between the different sides to stop and for everyone to contribute towards the future.
I agree. Yes I am the same with my vote too. I, like you, voted on experience. I watched the EU grow from a trading bloc into a political union and heading towards a United States of Europe and did not want any part of it. I warned voters in 1975 this would be the eventual outcome of the EU and was laughed at. Sure we're experiencing a little strain on the economy but we knew this was going to happen. He'll sort it out with QE so there really isn't nothing to worry about. The Markets have steadied and the £ will too. However, if the BoE are not careful they could trigger the predicted recession.

As to our youngsters, well yes, we shouldn't berate them for their votes either whatever their reasons but they really need to be educated as to what has happened to the EU since we joined, something you seem to be doing very well. I'm sure if they search the net they'll find something along those lines.

RizzyKing 01-07-2016 09:00
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
I think for many leave voters it was the experience of living through the direction change in the European project that did influence the vote far more then any of the campaign nonsense. That's also why the economic arguments didn't have the impact they were intended to have as people who were against the direction of the EU were not thinking in terms of economic consequences first although many would have considered them just not to the extent to change their vote. Plus most of us know that we were successful traders long before the EU and can be again though it will take time to reestablish ourselves as true global traders again.

That was another factor for me I felt we had become economically too EU centred at the detriment of potentially more lucrative global opportunities that we are well placed to exploit. I fully expect there to be negative economic consequences for a period up to five years but the gains that will come after that will make us more prosperous as a nation.

Ignitionnet 01-07-2016 09:22
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35847303)
The BoE did not say there 'Would Be' a recession. He will cause it if there is by lowering interest rates.
Lowering interest rates doesn't cause recession. It's monetary stimulus. The point of it is to make borrowing cheaper and credit more available to encourage businesses, especially, to borrow and invest. In the case of individuals cheaper credit increases demand.

This comes at the expense of inflation so it's a balancing act.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35847303)
He'll sort it out with QE so there really isn't nothing to worry about. The Markets have steadied and the £ will too. However, if the BoE are not careful they could trigger the predicted recession.
We're almost certain to get a recession. There is nothing the BoE can do about that. The best case is that it's a very slight recession though, it won't be anywhere near as bad as the one from a few years ago, so not pleasant but not end of days stuff.

Small drop in employment, small drop in tax revenues, government debt increasing somewhat to compensate as stabilisers kick in. Some tax rises, some spending cuts.

Running QE to infinity isn't going to happen and I'm not sure what impact you think QE would have. Depending on the form it takes it's likely to further weaken Sterling and not necessarily feed into the productive economy. Last time much of it ended up in housing and stocks.

The markets are steadier from the initial shock, nothing else. We've done the first drop on the rollercoaster, a couple of years to go yet.

If your indifference to the single market is based around that you think the shock to the economy is over and the only way is up from here check out the research that's been and is being done.

The BoE aren't doing Project Fear and aren't trying to trigger a recession. They are offering forward guidance and Project Reality. Their predictions agree with the consensus views and are middle of the road.

If they are wrong, excellent.

Pierre 01-07-2016 09:41
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847310)
We're almost certain to get a recession. .
Almost yes, if we dick about with our exit, or if the EU dick about with the negotiation and the whole things drags on for nastily for 2 years and beyond then it will be certain.

If the separation amicable, swift and sensible deals that suit both sides, it may be avoided or very short lived.

Unfortunately I can predict which of the two scenarios is most likely.

Ignitionnet 01-07-2016 09:52
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35847313)
Almost yes, if we dick about with our exit, or if the EU dick about with the negotiation and the whole things drags on for nastily for 2 years and beyond then it will be certain.

If the separation amicable, swift and sensible deals that suit both sides, it may be avoided or very short lived.

Unfortunately I can predict which of the two scenarios is most likely.
It will take the 2 years just to unravel everything.

This is noteworthy in that regard.

Quote:
The EU’s trade chief, Cecilia Malmström, said that negotiations on a deal with the UK could not begin until after Brexit, which would leave Britain facing years of uncertainty.

Ramrod 01-07-2016 09:59
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RBMark (Post 35847253)
We really are in trouble......

So, browsing social media, various forums, YouTube ect I found some interesting things about the intelligent under 30 Remainers. Where do I start....

Some of the under 30 Remainers think the following things...

The EU created the NHS,
Britain tried to ban the sales of MILK but the EU made us keep selling it, I think this comes from the pints to litres thing.
You will now have to pay to travel around Europe by plane, train, ferry. They misunderstood the "free" movement of people.
Islam will be banned in Britain. Muslims were in Britian long before we joined the EU.
The EU give us free school meals.
The EU fund all university's. I suspect this is due to some EU funding being available.

It's all out there to have read, it's worrying lol.
:rofl::D

Ignitionnet 01-07-2016 10:00
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
A bit of research: interest rates will probably go down to 0.25% this month, with potentially another cut to 0.1% or 0% next month.

With that perhaps 50 billion of QE.

Those who will feel the pain from this the most are those nearing retirement and those who rely on interest income.

So get tying yourselves in to those special saver rates if at all possible.

Ramrod 01-07-2016 10:01
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35847313)
Almost yes, if we dick about with our exit, or if the EU dick about with the negotiation and the whole things drags on for nastily for 2 years and beyond then it will be certain.

If the separation amicable, swift and sensible deals that suit both sides, it may be avoided or very short lived.

Unfortunately I can predict which of the two scenarios is most likely.
Unless we beef up our trade with the wider world asap:shrug:

Ignitionnet 01-07-2016 10:06
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35847324)
Unless we beef up our trade with the wider world asap:shrug:
What did you have in mind to achieve this, remembering the legal environment?

ntluser 01-07-2016 11:12
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
It's a pity that the EU cannot see that we have a wonderful opportunity here to reform the EU in a positive way for all countries and citizens in the EU.

Cameron's strategy of getting a better deal for just the UK makes us appear selfish and uncaring.

It would have been better to have tapped into the common problems that the EU share and come up with a group solution.

Instead Tusk gave us an unacceptable deal which Cameron could not sell to the UK public, with the EU left thinking that it was a fair deal.

Voters in the UK voted differently because each of us has a different experience of the EU and therefore we made our decision for different reasons.

As it turns out more of us appear to have more reasons to leave but it could easily have gone the other way if the missing 28% who did not vote had made their vote.

I believe if the EU is willing to accept reform for all of us and is more flexible for all of us ( and by that I mean all EU countries and all citizens) we could create an EU that 100% would want to stay in.

The EU does not need political union as we have national governments quite capable of making decisions and laws which have a common EU interest and we do not need a European army because we have NATO who have successfully protected us as best they can since 1945 and still do. If anything, we need better ways of discussing and resolving differences that do not require bullets and bombs.

Ramrod 01-07-2016 12:26
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847325)
What did you have in mind to achieve this, remembering the legal environment?
Are we free to trade at will once A50 is invoked?

Ignitionnet 01-07-2016 12:31
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35847355)
Are we free to trade at will once A50 is invoked?
No.

Big Brian 01-07-2016 12:55
Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35847310)
Lowering interest rates doesn't cause recession. It's monetary stimulus. The point of it is to make borrowing cheaper and credit more available to encourage businesses, especially, to borrow and invest. In the case of individuals cheaper credit increases demand.

This comes at the expense of inflation so it's a balancing act.



We're almost certain to get a recession. There is nothing the BoE can do about that. The best case is that it's a very slight recession though, it won't be anywhere near as bad as the one from a few years ago, so not pleasant but not end of days stuff.

Small drop in employment, small drop in tax revenues, government debt increasing somewhat to compensate as stabilisers kick in. Some tax rises, some spending cuts.

Running QE to infinity isn't going to happen and I'm not sure what impact you think QE would have. Depending on the form it takes it's likely to further weaken Sterling and not necessarily feed into the productive economy. Last time much of it ended up in housing and stocks.

The markets are steadier from the initial shock, nothing else. We've done the first drop on the rollercoaster, a couple of years to go yet.

If your indifference to the single market is based around that you think the shock to the economy is over and the only way is up from here check out the research that's been and is being done.

The BoE aren't doing Project Fear and aren't trying to trigger a recession. They are offering forward guidance and Project Reality. Their predictions agree with the consensus views and are middle of the road.

If they are wrong, excellent.
It won't be as bad but may last 2 or 3 quarters.

---------- Post added at 11:55 ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35847355)
Are we free to trade at will once A50 is invoked?
To be honest friend I can't find the answer to this on the net. I've asked the question Can Britain trade with whomever it wants to when Article 50 is invoked?


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