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-   -   Eurozone will collapse... (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33678876)

mertle 04-06-2012 13:47

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Cyprus in the deep stuff will this effect uk more.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...s-buckles.html

Quote:

Russia has effectively shored up Cyprus over the past two years but rising defaults in Greece have proved overwhelming. The Cypriot banking system is nine times the country's GDP, with assets of €157bn (£127bn). It has been called the "Iceland" of the South.

Not good this markets panicking again. Can we use powers to stop them making situation much worse. While these run arround like headless chickens we wont get stability to sort problems. These money men wanted austerity now bemoaning its tanking economy/causing unemployment. With less money for people to consume.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/d...isis-Live.html

Hugh 04-06-2012 14:10

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
How can we stop markets in other counties trading?

mertle 04-06-2012 15:22

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35436804)
How can we stop markets in other counties trading?

wont be easy thats a fact.

possible needs international co-operation but something needs to be done to stop the panick. Them panicking making bad situation much worse with them piling there money into safer things like comodities its make problem worse than it really needs to be. The uk manufacturing plummet cant help matters.

Suppose one way might be to try get money into peoples hands who spends it with above inflation busting pay rises. If we gave common workers 10% increase then that might just kickstart things. However the likelyhood is no doubt bosses will squeal dump jobs in selfish atitude.

If that the only way to stimulate the economy then surely worth doing explain to bosses why. even if wage increase is 12 month stimulus better nothing.

Another is government to hand out loans to small business/medium business in to stimulate bringing jobs improve manufacturing. Money to help those who got idea who need funds to set there own business if they unemployed. Loans which government earn money repaid back later if they can. Risks but risks worth taking. We get people in work new businesses does not matter how small.

I would say many got ideas but not the capital or collateral to set it up.

If they see people spending money with more disposable cash then maybe they will stop panicking.

I do blame IMF they got lot to answer for how they done things. they could handled the situation much better all they did was cause panick. They tried to ofset the blame from the banks typical. Wish the 2 faced cow got sacked.

How we stabilise the markets is hard issue but that should be priority.

I dont think its possible to able tackling debt management while the market so spooky and economy so weak. Which what experts should told the governments, if they did governments stupid IMF should listened. Nope they went ahead with crazy plan which sunk the world into a mess.

Chris 04-06-2012 17:20

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
You can't give out pay rises to common workers or anyone else, when the cash isn't there to do it. We are in a recession - businesses are making less money and are borrowing less too. That's why people are losing their jobs. Business is not making the profit with which to pay them. The State can't stuff the pubic sector with pay rises either, because this requires tax rises that the real economy (the private sector) simply cannot bear.

The only place there is a massive hoard of distributable cash is in the Treasury - not in balances as such, but in the tax system. The government has the option of short-term tax cuts in order to put money in the hands of consumers. The flip-side is that this carries inflationary risk, which would be tricky to deal with via the usual means (raising interest rates) because the economy is so fragile, and so many people still have unsustainably large mountains of debt attached to their houses (many of which are no longer worth enough to pay that debt off, if it came to it).

This is, of course, all academic, because an economic tsunami of terrifying proportions is even now rolling its way across the ocean towards us. When the Euro implodes - and it is going to - all bets will be off. I'd start learning how to live with less right now, if I were you.

Matth 05-06-2012 01:19

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It seems certain that the Euro will fail, unless those countries which should never have been allowed to join in the first place are ejected from it -which would be a huge lump of pain, but would bring much greater stability to the core eurozone.

The crazy thing is, we had the good sense to stay out of this Mickey mouse money, but it seems we still get stuffed whichever way... we pay to prop the wretched thing up, and we pay if it fails. Time we stopped throwing good money after bad.

mertle 05-06-2012 21:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
According telegraph today we got money problem now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...contracts.html

There contraction on money now.

Quote:

Clear signs of trouble are emerging in the US, until now the last bastion of strength. The New York Institute of Supply Management said its ISM business index – a proxy for business demand – flashed a "screeching halt" in May, crashing to 49.9 from 61.2 in April, where anything below 50 denotes contraction. Unemployment is rising again after grim jobs data for April and May, indicating that the economy may have fallen below stall speed.

Chris 05-06-2012 21:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mertle (Post 35437373)
According telegraph today we got money problem now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...contracts.html

There contraction on money now.

The closer the tsunami gets to shore, the more the waves start to pile up. It's coming, my friend - time to head for the hills. ;)

mertle 05-06-2012 21:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35437376)
The closer the tsunami gets to shore, the more the waves start to pile up. It's coming, my friend - time to head for the hills. ;)

Is that all the rich stampeding like drove of pigs:LOL:

Seriously there must be reason why the rich suddenly started hoarding this gone on before 2008 we saw gold creaping up then.

Why it only destroying what many built there businesses.

Chris 05-06-2012 21:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mertle (Post 35437381)
Is that all the rich stampeding like drove of pigs:LOL:

Seriously there must be reason why the rich suddenly started hoarding this gone on before 2008 we saw gold creaping up then.

Why it only destroying what many built there businesses.

Gold is money - the only true, hard currency. It is rare and precious and no clever financial instrument, fund, transaction or other assorted sleights of hand can make it more or less than what it is.

The rich, though I generalise, are close enough to the financial system with their advisers and investments to realise there's nothing holding it up. Buying gold is a wise course of action if there's a risk of even the major reserve currencies getting into difficulty.

mertle 05-06-2012 22:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35437402)
Gold is money - the only true, hard currency. It is rare and precious and no clever financial instrument, fund, transaction or other assorted sleights of hand can make it more or less than what it is.

The rich, though I generalise, are close enough to the financial system with their advisers and investments to realise there's nothing holding it up. Buying gold is a wise course of action if there's a risk of even the major reserve currencies getting into difficulty.

Yep agree think this was first warning that was not headed why was gold going up.

I know many want money back linked to gold reserves.

There move was way before 2008 cant remember when gold started to climb in value. Thats not forgetting the steady rise into comodities.

So advisors helped them but did governments advisors tell them too. Economists ket stum too. Warning bells should been sounding way before it hit.

Its like everyone new storm coming except the banks governments and economists unless they ignored the signs.

There blokes video on youtube posted it awhile back about money. He did that video 1981 I think it is he predicted the crash then and the meltdown because fractural reserves been overused by the money men for there own gains.

The bloke warner think name economist got more sense osbourne. The vid just couple days ago says we dont control 97% money. So when government QE or main bank its market which dictates the flow for its interests not necessary whats good for economy. Often flowed into bad debt as earns them money instead using it for productive use. So BOE ends up not helping our GPD.

With now flow dropping alarmingly we need to get cash flowing.

I cant see any other way than this QE but we should take control where it used.

This what economist says use it to build worth and value by using it for productive means which improves GPD. Basiclaly for small medium business and expansion in areas which produces goods for selling.

Worst would be is let it get filtered into markets, hedge funds, even property/land.

He talked alot sense.

Taf 06-06-2012 11:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Proposals designed to stop taxpayers' money being used to bail out failed banks will be unveiled by the European Commission later.

They aim to ensure losses are borne by bank shareholders and creditors and minimise costs for taxpayers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18333240

Sounds like the Perfect Storm scenario.... shareholders and creditors will then sell off all stock and withdraw all cash from banks they fear will fail.

Are the Eurocrats who came up with this idea on the same planet as the rest of us?

Dai 06-06-2012 12:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35437402)
Gold is money - the only true, hard currency. It is rare and precious and no clever financial instrument, fund, transaction or other assorted sleights of hand can make it more or less than what it is.

Indeed it is, which is why the Rothschild banking family have been buying it up. They are also involved in deciding the world price for gold. Nice work if you can get it..

mertle 06-06-2012 13:11

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 35437551)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18333240

Sounds like the Perfect Storm scenario.... shareholders and creditors will then sell off all stock and withdraw all cash from banks they fear will fail.

Are the Eurocrats who came up with this idea on the same planet as the rest of us?

that wont go down well can you remember the names in lloyds moaning they will go broke if they cough up to bail the bank.

I bet they all ready starting to bail before the move.

Lets hope if its possible they backdate it so they can still liable.

Hugh 06-06-2012 15:50

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The names in Lloyds of London are about specialist insurance funding - are you sure you meant to link them to the bank bail-out, when in fact the banks were bailed out by the government/taxpayer?

mertle 07-06-2012 16:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35437652)
The names in Lloyds of London are about specialist insurance funding - are you sure you meant to link them to the bank bail-out, when in fact the banks were bailed out by the government/taxpayer?

sorry for not replying hugh been very ill.

Yep got mixed up on it yeas it was insurance now that you mention it.

So basically you could get the same situtation moaning it will break them.

nomadking 07-06-2012 16:46

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The big difference is that those who have invested via banks can only at most lose the money they pay in. Those that invest in Lloyds of London Insurance can lose everything, as there is unlimited liability(ie blank cheque).

Sirius 07-06-2012 16:47

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Has it not collapsed yet :rolleyes:

Maybe it needs a push ;)

jempalmer 07-06-2012 17:02

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
On a slightly more positive note, it seems that customers of Santander UK will be protected should Santander (Spain) go belly up. Scant consolation for anyone else in the Eurozone who might lose their shirts, however at least Britain has a better chance of surviving the almost inevitable crash. We, thankfully, didn't adopt the Euro although via the IMF are still being milked for the financial shoring up of this disastrous idea.

Osem 07-06-2012 17:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Santander UK has its own UK banking licence so the usual depositer protection rules apply. However since it owns a number of institutions (as do many of the other large banking groups) the maximum level of protection (currently £85k per person or £170k for couples) is split between any deposits with any of those other institutions. This may not pose a problem for many people but for those with greater savings (sitting on the proceeds of a house sale for example) it would do if the bank were to collapse.

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/safe-savings


Having said that, the repercussions for all of us (savers or not) of a bank like Santander going belly up would be severe.

jempalmer 07-06-2012 17:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
You're absolutely correct Osem. Still a rather unsettling future.

Damien 07-06-2012 18:01

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Germany just don't seem to want to do anything. Probably printing Deutsche Marks as we speak. :erm:

Taf 07-06-2012 18:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
As long as it's not Reichmarks.....

Chris 07-06-2012 18:43

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35438042)
Germany just don't seem to want to do anything. Probably printing Deutsche Marks as we speak. :erm:

Germany is forbidden by its constitution - a constitution, incidentally, dictated to it by our good selves and the rest of the Allied powers in 1945 - from guaranteeing the debts of third parties in the way some have been pressing in recent days.

To be honest, my sympathies are with Frau Merkel here. Her job as Chancellor is to look after the interests of the people who elected her. I don't see how those interests could possibly be served by Germany becoming guarantor of the shoddy financial practices of certain other Eurozone states. She is quite right when she says that mutualised government borrowing via Eurobonds is something that can only follow after the Eurozone states enter a full and formal fiscal union whereby the whole can intervene to prevent profligate behaviour on the part of one or more of the others.

The quandary is, without Germany agreeing to pay for the Euro-bandwagon - and quickly - the wheels are going to come off, most likely in spectacular fashion, before the year is out.

mertle 08-06-2012 02:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
spain downgraded uk warned to get growth by fitch parasites these stupid rating agencies.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...owngrade-fitch

Thick 2 short planks as they had not clue like IMF they done more harm than the crooked banks.

read this on reply could not argue against it removed the swearing mods.

freedom was always going to create greed and corruption.

There been some very decent comments such why agencies only acted after issues not before considering people use them for speculation advice.

Quote:

Fitch said it believed the recapitalisation of the struggling financial sector would be €60bn (£49bn) – double its previous estimate.
I love the way they automatically assume that "recapitalisation" of the reckless financial sector gamblers is necessary. The fools that got themselves into these over-leveraged positions should be left to drown in their self-created oceans of debt, yet the credit rating agencies, the IMF, the ECB, the European Commission, the majority of western political parties are all unanimous in their determination to make sure ordinary working people pay for the incompetence of their rich mates.
The worst thing about these neoliberal $%$% is that they demanded that "the state" stop interfering with the market with their burdensome regulations, then when the whole "free-markets can self-regulate" experiment came crashing down they suddenly and seamlessly change tune and demand that the "evil state" intervene to prevent a massive financial sector collapse.
The financial sector elite demanded deregulation to allow the development of a "Darwinian" dog-eat-dog market, now they should be made to suffer the consequences, "the state" and "the taxpayer" should wash their hands .


Osem 08-06-2012 15:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Spain's credit rating downgraded by Fitch as international bailout looms.

Europe's fourth largest economy now hovering just above junk ...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...?newsfeed=true

Another house of cards economy being exposed for all to see...

Chris 08-06-2012 23:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Newsnight is reporting that Spain will announce that it needs bailing out tomorrow afternoon. This is the part where the crisis gets very, very, very serious.

Osem 09-06-2012 11:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
You really wouldn't think so would you. Let's have some more meetings about meetings and tinker around the edges...

I reckon this is going to be the biggest European crisis since WWII and I really fear for the consequences if the Eurocrats don't bite the bullet and accept that the Eurozone in its current form doesn't work. Even if they do that, there's going to be plenty of pain and misery spread far and wide for a very long time. I only hope it doesn't lead to mass social unrest or worse but anyone who doubts that it could ought to reflect on history.

Chris 09-06-2012 18:28

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Someone said yesterday in one of the many items I've read on the subject, the European Project is the life's work, salary and pension for many of those now in charge of it. Admitting it's game over - and was flawed from the outset - is simply too much to ask of them. They are fundamentally compromised and frankly are the last people who should be making the decisions right now. This is not going to end in any controlled fashion. It will simply stagger on until it blows apart at the seams. And then we shall see what we shall see.

Chris 09-06-2012 18:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
If I had any savings, I'd be tempted. But as I've been going hand-to-mouth pretty much since this whole debacle started, I don't have anything to lose. :disturbd:

Hom3r 09-06-2012 19:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Spain asks for cash.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18382659

Well if they worked rather than take a siesta when it's a bit hot.

Why don't we give all our taxes to europe.:rolleyes:

It's about time well upsticks and left Europe behind us, then all those that come here and leech of the British benefit system can be told to sod off home.

Osem 09-06-2012 20:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35439047)
Someone said yesterday in one of the many items I've read on the subject, the European Project is the life's work, salary and pension for many of those now in charge of it. Admitting it's game over - and was flawed from the outset - is simply too much to ask of them. They are fundamentally compromised and frankly are the last people who should be making the decisions right now. This is not going to end in any controlled fashion. It will simply stagger on until it blows apart at the seams. And then we shall see what we shall see.

I'm afraid you're right and I fully expect that when it does the Eurocrats still won't accept responsibility for their mad project and will blame its failure on others.

Will21st 09-06-2012 20:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 35439115)
Spain asks for cash.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18382659

Well if they worked rather than take a siesta when it's a bit hot.

Why don't we give all our taxes to europe.:rolleyes:

It's about time well upsticks and left Europe behind us, then all those that come here and leech of the British benefit system can be told to sod off home.

I actually agree and wish we would

a) leave the EU
b) orientate ourselves more towards the Commonwealth,the Americas and the rising economies of the Far East.

I'd say Britain is extremely well connected globally and should really use that to it's advantage.Europe is way too complacent in it's ways and thinks it' the dogs private parts when it's anything but....
I guess now I know why they called it #the old world'.... ;)

on a scarier note I've just sold a property in Germany and I'm waiting for a substantial wedge to go into my account.... obviously the Euro is only allowed to collapse AFTER that has happened! :erm: :D

Chris 09-06-2012 20:56

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35439119)
I'm afraid you're right and I fully expect that when it does the Eurocrats still won't accept responsibility for their mad project and will blame its failure on others.

When they have 'tried everything' and it still hasn't worked, it will blow apart and it will be all the fault of the Anglo-Saxon bankers.

Sirius 09-06-2012 22:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I still say let it implode and then start again with a common market not this super state that they seem to think is the answer

Chris 10-06-2012 00:22

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18382659

Spain is to get up to €100 billion to bail out its banks. That's about EIGHTY BILLION POUNDS. The total cash outlay to bail out UK banks was about £120 billion. The difference is, we had the resources to pay for it. Spain does not.

Let nobody be fooled by the mechanism being used to funnel the money here. The fact that the EFSF is paying Spain's own bank restructuring fund directly rather than handing the cash to the Spanish treasury is a rather pathetic face-saving exercise designed (but doomed to fail) to disguise the fact that Spain does not have enough cash to bail out its own banks.

Spain's banking sector is bankrupt and were it not for foreign aid, that fact would imminently be bankrupting the Spanish state itself. Eurogeddon is here, folks, and the fat lady is in the wings.

Sirius 10-06-2012 02:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35439239)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18382659

Spain is to get up to €100 billion to bail out its banks. That's about EIGHTY BILLION POUNDS. The total cash outlay to bail out UK banks was about £120 billion. The difference is, we had the resources to pay for it. Spain does not.

Let nobody be fooled by the mechanism being used to funnel the money here. The fact that the EFSF is paying Spain's own bank restructuring fund directly rather than handing the cash to the Spanish treasury is a rather pathetic face-saving exercise designed (but doomed to fail) to disguise the fact that Spain does not have enough cash to bail out its own banks.

Spain's banking sector is bankrupt and were it not for foreign aid, that fact would imminently be bankrupting the Spanish state itself. Eurogeddon is here, folks, and the fat lady is in the wings.

Wish i could get a bail out :)

Sirius 10-06-2012 10:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Just been reading this and i do feel he could be right

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18383804

Quote:

The UK's hopes of economic recovery are being "killed off" by the eurozone crisis, the chancellor has warned.

Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, George Osborne said European leaders faced a "moment of truth" which could determine the economic future for over a decade.
This made me laugh

http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16244113

Quote:

Spain's finance minister has confirmed his country will ask for European financial aid for its ailing banking system.

Madrid insists the eurozone support for its banks is not a rescue, and not all banks need money.

Luis de Guindos told reporters the country has not yet made a formal loan request - but a statement from the eurogroup of finance ministers said they expected one "shortly".
So what the hell is it if not a rescue and here is the problem the faces when the country's being rescued will not except that there banks are at fault in the first place. !

Chris 10-06-2012 11:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It is a rescue. But they think that by calling it something else (and announcing it at the start of the weekend) the markets will not implode on Monday morning. The Spanish economy is twice the size of Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined - what is happening here is seismic. I doubt the financial sector is likely to be taken in by this attempted sleight of hand for very long.

The Eurocrats are utterly delusional. Everybody remember where you were during the summer of 2012 - we are living in historic times. Think Kennedy, think moon landing, think 9/11.

Damien 10-06-2012 11:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35439320)
It is a rescue. But they think that by calling it something else (and announcing it at the start of the weekend) the markets will not implode on Monday morning. The Spanish economy is twice the size of Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined - what is happening here is seismic. I doubt the financial sector is likely to be taken in by this attempted sleight of hand for very long.

The Eurocrats are utterly delusional. Everybody remember where you were during the summer of 2012 - we are living in historic times. Think Kennedy, think moon landing, think 9/11.

Surely, when faced with the very real consequences of ruin, Germany will agree to Eurobonds? From my reading that would stabilise the situation?

Chris 10-06-2012 14:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Germany can't agree to Eurobonds. Merkel is constitutionally forbidden to do so. This is why she speaks of such fiscal union as the desirable end of a process of integration rather than an immediate step towards integration.

For that level of sovereignty to be ceded, constitutional change requiring referendum would be needed in Germany. That cannot be done quickly and in the current climate, arguably cannot be done at all. In Germany as elsewhere the thirst for European integration is much stronger within the political class than in the population at large. Germans are already looking askance at the amount of their money thrown into a bottomless pit - they are only going to stand for so much more.

Osem 10-06-2012 14:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
A major problem here is that the Eurocrats have shown themselves up for what they are. The markets a) hardly believe a word coming out of the Eurozone now and b) don't believe there is the political will to tackle the growing crisis. Until that changes we can expect things to get worse and even if there is a sudden outbreak of common sense in Eurolalaland, it may be too little, too late...

Damien 10-06-2012 14:37

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35439365)
Germany can't agree to Eurobonds. Merkel is constitutionally forbidden to do so. This is why she speaks of such fiscal union as the desirable end of a process of integration rather than an immediate step towards integration.

For that level of sovereignty to be ceded, constitutional change requiring referendum would be needed in Germany. That cannot be done quickly and in the current climate, arguably cannot be done at all. In Germany as elsewhere the thirst for European integration is much stronger within the political class than in the population at large. Germans are already looking askance at the amount of their money thrown into a bottomless pit - they are only going to stand for so much more.

So why are the Americans and ourselves pushing for it? Are they taking a different approach, looking for a loophole?

denphone 10-06-2012 15:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Spain's Rajoy hails bank rescue as 'victory for euro'.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18385634

Quote:

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has hailed a decision by eurozone finance ministers to help Spain shore up its struggling banks as a victory for the European common currency.

"It was the credibility of the euro that won," he told reporters.
Quote:

"The solidity of Spain's financial system won, the credibility of the euro won," he said, and vowed to press ahead with structural economic reforms.
Quote:

Lloyds Banking Group economist, Charles Diebel, said in a report that the move was bailout "lite" and questioned whether the money would stop the rot: "Will it be enough? That's questionable as it is still prevention rather than cure and again only keeps the banking sector alive rather than really supporting growth."

Chris 10-06-2012 16:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35439370)
So why are the Americans and ourselves pushing for it? Are they taking a different approach, looking for a loophole?

The Obama administration is ideologically wedded to the idea of a united Europe. In the UK, I think there are a couple of things going on with Cameron and Osborne. On the one hand, they want to be seen to be saying all the right things, to lessen the chances of us somehow getting the blame for all this when it finally goes belly up. On the other hand, I suspect they see a federal Eurozone as the UK's once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to achieve a relative loosening of our ties with the EU without us actually having to do very much, I.e. the UK stands still while the Euro-core marches boldly into ever closer union.

Dai 10-06-2012 18:46

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This dates back to 2010 but the principle still stands true. Of course the situation has changed increasingly for the worse since this was written. However, the Obama administration still seems wedded to this failed principle of government.

http://www.libertoad.com/2010/05/06/...greek-bailout/

---------- Post added at 17:46 ---------- Previous post was at 17:44 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35439320)
The Eurocrats are utterly delusional. Everybody remember where you were during the summer of 2012 - we are living in historic times. Think Kennedy, think moon landing, think 9/11.

Can you hear the waves yet? The tsunami is nearly upon us.

Osem 10-06-2012 18:47

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35439389)
Spain's Rajoy hails bank rescue as 'victory for euro'.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18385634

Quote:

"The solidity of Spain's financial system won, the credibility of the euro won," blah blah blah...
Yeah right! Does anyone really believe that tosh?...

Dai 10-06-2012 18:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35439436)
Yeah right! Does anyone really believe that tosh?...

The ones with their snouts deepest in the trough?
To mix my plumbing metaphors a bit the last thing they want is for anyone to pull the plug.

Chris 10-06-2012 20:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35439436)
Yeah right! Does anyone really believe that tosh?...

Nope. Not even they believe it. But they know that matters are out of their hands - the financial markets will call time on the Euro just as soon as they please. The last card the Eurocrats have left to play is the monumental lie that they have 'fixed' everything (or in the case of Spain, 'look, it was never that serious in the first place!'). They have the slimmest of hopes that the markets will believe them, there won't be a run on Spanish banks and that nobody will put 2+2 together and realise that now Spain is a beneficiary of the EFSF rather than one of its creditors, there ain't enough Euros left in all the treasuries in the EZ to pay out when Italy goes mammaries skywards.

Precisely as many commentators have been predicting since late last year, we have gone from Greece to Spain and we can now do nothing but sit back and wait for Italy to fall.

---------- Post added at 19:16 ---------- Previous post was at 18:19 ----------
Quote:

Italy must guarantee 22pc of the bail-out funds, even though it cannot raise money itself at a sustainable rate. You could hardly design a surer way to pull Italy into the fire.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...Bundebank.html

mertle 11-06-2012 14:25

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
like way osborne saying euro crisis causing our woes to recover but forgets he blamed labour in 2008 for the mess. When it was failure to stop ponsie scheme and bankers in us with bad debt collapsing smaller banks..

It was either not labours fault therefore cameron/osborne misled the electorate or it was labours therefore its camerons and osborne failure now.

Very convenient to try blame others seems this the way with this government. Never the bankers rich deciding tax not for them to pay.

To add why we in mess in europe if not the world due to tax evading practises. Dont matter if its legal or not if too many hop on the bandwagon we have a problem.

This sort mess needs sorting else no country will survive if the corporates, rich think tax not theres to pay.

This what got greece in trouble we will be next if this caries on. 5000 homes bought in ofshore accounts since osborne changed the rules. Now time to tax transactions to uk from outside. At least we would get our tax from them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/...companies.html

Rating agencies needs more regulations there ratings mess making things alot worse than it should.

Its corrupt to the core bunch crooks who got self interesting prophacies.

There initial design to help investors decide safe investments was good. However greed and corruption with them means it become parasite which actually hinder rather helps economy. Moody's, S & P helped cause the 2008 credit crisis.

http://swampland.time.com/2011/08/06...ard-and-poors/
Quote:

S&P, or Moody’s, seriously after both agencies granted AAA rating to Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) that were chock-full-of crap mortgages, thereby helping to precipitate the 2008 financial collapse. Indeed, I’m amazed that in our grand and glorious free market system, some dashing entrepreneur hasn’t come along and launched a competing ratings agency without all the baggage.
Makes it a mockery how people still listens to these anymore.

About time people started to judge these advices and question there motives and decisions.

Until money men see common sense we wont recover from this.

Money men have to be sensible IMF have to go back to the corner with dunce hat on.

some serious good comments in this by people got more brains cameron, osborne, euro leaders, imf and the rating agencies.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datab...oodys-standard

as example

Quote:

As long as debt markets exist, i.e people are able to make money of other's ultimate misery, these agencies will continue to publicly post their garbage and set the markets on their weekly rollercoaster journey. It's a self-propagating economic system that can only end in tears.
As ever, all we need to do as a global community is look at who gets rich off of data like this - the same elite that control the companies publishing this data.
Change our thinking, change our planet. The latest financial depression has been nothing more than a blatant redistribution of wealth.
How long will we allow this to continue? When 1% of the world's population controls 99% of the money?
There's a graph I'd like to see - that trend in the last ten years would be a bitter pill to swallow.
Douglas Carswell critised Osbourne in his blog for balming eurocrisis.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...borne-eurozone

Dai 11-06-2012 14:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Too much government, too much regulation.

The current situation could almost have been designed to stifle growth and protect existing corporate interests.

But what government is ever going to accept drastic reduction of their numbers and powers? Turkeys voting for Christmas? Like the planned 'bonfire of the quangos' that died a quiet death after the big initial fanfare.

Hugh 11-06-2012 16:28

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Did anyone understand the OP?

Especially
Quote:

It was either not labours fault therefore cameron/osborne misled the electorate or it was labours therefore its camerons and osborne failure now.
Looks like you are trying to have the best of both worlds with that statement, mertle.....

The Euro crisis didn't exist in the present form during the election, so trying to blame the Government not mentioning it is at best, disingenuous, and at worst, ignoring the facts to support your polemic....

And posting opinion/comments that are posted in a Guardian article, that does not reflect the article itself, to support your proposition - interesting approach.....

denphone 11-06-2012 16:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35439436)
Yeah right! Does anyone really believe that tosh?...

No but the idiots in Europe do.:td::(

Damien 11-06-2012 16:33

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35439731)
The Euro crisis didn't exist in the present form during the election, so trying to blame the Government not mentioning it is at best, disingenuous, and at worst, ignoring the facts to support your polemic....

I do think it's amusing to see the current Government point to the global economy as a reason for a lack of growth/recession when they didn't seem to accept that excuse whilst in opposition. That said it's equally amusing to see Labour now say that they government can't use that excuse when they were doing so three years ago.

Both parties seem to have switched viewpoints when they switched benches.

However he is sort of right. If Labour can be blamed for the recession that occurred during a global economic crisis then the Conservatives can be blamed for a recession in a Euro-wide crisis. They can't sudden claim to have understood that all these economies are interconnected and the power of one Government alone is limited in such matters.

Gary L 11-06-2012 16:33

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35439731)
Did anyone understand the OP?

I'll try and analyse it for you.

Quote:

It was either not labours fault therefore cameron/osborne misled the electorate or it was labours therefore its camerons and osborne failure now.
If it wasn't Labours fault. then the Conservatives misled the voters.
if it was Labours fault, then the Conservatives are being blamed for it now.

nomadking 11-06-2012 16:40

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The causes of the Eurozone crisis happened before 2010. It is the full effects that are now being seen. It is silly to rule out the Eurozone crisis as not being a factor. It all adds to the general nervousness to do business as you don't know what's around the corner.

Quote:

The interest paid by banks to savers has been at record low levels. Any further eurozone trouble means those rates would rise later rather than sooner.
Quote:

Official statistics show that nearly 47% of UK exports went to the eurozone in 2011, while nearly 43% of UK imports came from the eurozone.
A long-term spiral of decline in the economies of Europe would mean less demand for UK good and services, and that could mean job cuts, especially in manufacturing.

Hugh 11-06-2012 16:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The point about Labour's profligacy is that they kept spending during the good times ("end to boom and bust" ring a bell?), rather than saving for the recession, thus building up the enormous deficit we have now....

Osem 11-06-2012 17:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35439744)
The point about Labour's profligacy is that they kept spending during the good times ("end to boom and bust" ring a bell?), rather than saving for the recession, thus building up the enormous deficit we have now....

Too true.

They even kept spending when the big red financial writing was on the wall and they were on the verge of being booted out of office. Shows how much they cared about the nation's longer term economic prospects. All they were interested in at that point was making life as hard as possible for their political opponents who'd have to pick up the pieces.

mertle 11-06-2012 20:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
hugh not stricktly true certainly not according to these figures.

ps thanks all explaining my comments.

http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_debt

Debt only went up alarmingly after 2008 crisis.

Therefore the money was used to bail the banks and help elevaite the crisis looming.

Concervatives never complained oposition prior 2008 osborne actually said he would increased spending himself at the time.

The other is not spending is bad in itself but where it goes. If we aiming to build the bricks for the future, aiming to expand improve GPD then its not bad spending.

However seeing the figures suggest labour was not at fault.

The only thing blame concervatives was naive to listen that austerity was the right way to solve this crisis. Before people jump it dont mean going mad spending spree either.

The whole mess will go down in history for one big foulup of handling the economy. It was not rocket science what austerity would do without growth. those dumped on scrapheap either now unemployed statistic or part time workers. Either way less consuming from them. Then those businesses who lost publc sector contracts too on top people not spending. I really wonder at times these people who supposed to be bright cannot claim in hindsight we should done this and that. Banks take huge blame especially those in america for this mess.

It was clear economy was too weak that private sector was in no position to create the kind jobs to sustain the cull.

When all countries follow the same dumb ideolagy with threats from idiots like rating agencies, IMF european union. While allowing those same idiots to profagate by not paying taxes, hoarding, causing crisis. Worse have illusion that dropping taxes would create the mechinisms for job creation. That not forgetting the less taxes government now collecting it hit comes all together one big heap brown stuff that could been avoided.

We simply in mess for listening idiots who either had vested interest or jumped up loonies.

What was needed was cool heads not headless chicken panicky decisions. Ony seen one or two economist talk any sense sadly these not been the experts they listened too. As in our case it was used as vehicle to get policies in which sick but do naff all to help the situation. With powerful corruption behind the motives to make few very very rich by profiteering from contracts to do work for budies.

Only know we hearing shift to growth but again they not listening. We still looking creating the wrong growth here we talking about property boom the last thing we need right now is that which will bite us up the arse 10 years time.

We need not either credit boom either but solid growth in production so we become less reliant on the service sector.


One thing needs be asked to King/osborne where has the QE money gone. Did it goto the markets, businesses to create growth in production sector or did it find itself in property.

I dont trust either to sort and control QE.

Chris 11-06-2012 20:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mertle (Post 35439886)
One thing needs be asked to King/osborne where has the QE money gone. Did it goto the markets, businesses to create growth in production sector or did it find itself in property.

I dont trust either to sort and control QE.

Rather a lot of it seems to have gone into the banks' capital buffers, which to be fair they are now compelled to swell way beyond the levels previously considered satisfactory.

However there are dark suspicions that some has found its way into bankers' bonuses.

Sirius 11-06-2012 20:56

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35439731)
Did anyone understand the OP?

.

I never do :)

mertle 11-06-2012 22:04

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35439888)
Rather a lot of it seems to have gone into the banks' capital buffers, which to be fair they are now compelled to swell way beyond the levels previously considered satisfactory.

However there are dark suspicions that some has found its way into bankers' bonuses.

would not suprise me on that about bonuses.

there was the same talk that banks bailout seemed to not go into actually what it was for but to fat cats in banking pay/bonuses.

Although agree buffer needed to protect banks from bad debt. We also need to maintain economy. Without right growth we are in trouble. I certainly dont trust who using QE programme. Fear being used to line own pockets.

Just wonder if it would be better for governments arrange loaning directly rather Banks with low interests.

That way government earns money from QE rather than Banks. We also control where its delivered too so its put into projects which help growth but right growth which improves the country/economy. That inturn means we need to make sure governments dont spend on vanity projects which bad for economy/growth.

Another is this could governments actually bail out companies in trouble by sharing company ownership.

Whch means it gives them assets to either sell on or earn profits could this be the future if taxation system is problematic to collect.

Hugh 11-06-2012 22:11

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes, that's right - hundreds of billions of pounds went into pay and bonuses.

Really - your accusations should at least have some basis in reality.....

Chris 11-06-2012 22:43

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18391824

Funny, the Europhile BBC made a big headline this morning about the initially positive market reaction to Spain's honest-guv-it's-not-a-bailout. By the time they all closed - most of them comfortably south of their opening levels as traders started to see through the bluster, BS and nonsense emanating from Brussels and Madrid - the story is fairly well buried. Italian and Spanish bond yields are up (Spain's are at an eye-watering 6.5%, and let's not forget, the not-a-bailout money is going on the Government's books, even though it has been spun as direct support for some of the country's banks, rather than its economy - Spain is going to have to repay the bailout loan at some point, but how is it going to do that when its ability to refinance its debt is so badly compromised?)

mrmistoffelees 11-06-2012 22:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Not sure if posted before, apologies if so

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2012/06/49.jpg

mertle 12-06-2012 00:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35439935)
Yes, that's right - hundreds of billions of pounds went into pay and bonuses.

Really - your accusations should at least have some basis in reality.....

not all would never think that all it got syphoned but we only got banks trust they need X amount to cover securities.

Some bosses milked it with bonuses while they can.. Some where very risk investments which why should governments lose money on not banks who played russian roulette.

This not sure just US bailed out banks or the whole lot. 1.6bn in alsorts perks while being bailed is disgraceful.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/1..._n_152647.html


The fact we gave banks the money did not put any conditions on the bailout.

We was not only one then that cow at IMF, bounty hunters called rating agencies have nerve tell countries to austerity. We covered there arses with banks bailouts.

I am shocked they aint been investigated bigtime what there involvement to find out the bottom of the credit crash. Considering the top men in wall street knew did naff all on that ponsie scheme.

I have found breakdown it shows how much we bailed them out too.

http://www-958.ibm.com/software/data...976/versions/1

---------- Post added at 23:13 ---------- Previous post was at 23:12 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 35439964)
Not sure if posted before, apologies if so

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2012/06/49.jpg

lol they should put IMF too.

TheDaddy 12-06-2012 07:43

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35439935)
Yes, that's right - hundreds of billions of pounds went into pay and bonuses.

Really - your accusations should at least have some basis in reality.....

If it was a single penny piece it was to much in bonuses, their banks lost millions and nearly bankrupted the world and they still want bonuses, the gall of these people knows no bounds, it's about time imo they were reminded that bonuses are given for good performance and not just to be expected come what may as part of your remuneration package.

Hugh 12-06-2012 09:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Totally agree - I was just responding to the initial hyperbolic statement.

Maggy 12-06-2012 10:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So to basically sum up we are totally screwed whatever anyone does..and no one really knows what to do about it.

Wonders why economics is designated as a science?Seems more like magical illusions to me.

Dai 12-06-2012 14:15

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35440132)
Seems more like magical illusions to me.

That's basically the conclusion I came to after struggling with the concept of fiat money for a while.

You go to the bank for a loan and they magically conjure that money into your account.

It seems to me that the whole of EU land has been doing this for ages now. Making magic money without creating anything of value to back it up. It eventually HAS to all come tumbling down.

mertle 13-06-2012 00:12

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well the hypocrite open her big mouth again warning triple world disaster now.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...istine-lagarde

Legarde should put number 1 those who wont pay tax like herself.

Funny how she was all for austerity then now moans about lack growth.:banghead: Crikey where did this insight come from.

Quote:

Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, has warned that the world risks a triple crisis of declining incomes, environmental damage and social unrest unless countries adopt a more sustainable approach to economic growth.


Ahead of the Rio+20 Earth summit later this month, she said the rich should restrain their demands for higher incomes while there are still 200 million people worldwide looking for a job and poverty is on the rise.
Was it like eon light switching on she changes her tune. You know what will happen. Soon as the countries start the building blocks to growth we her start whinging again.

She absolute useless in her role surely should be removed.

If it was not for the banks we would not be in mess. Wish she shuts her mouth pays her tax like good girl. She got fat zero chance the fat cats will comply which she part of the croney crowd on £298,675 per year salary.

Challenge you legarde if so worried about 200 million out of work donate £150.000 of your salary a year. Might not be enough but would help little towards it. If other rich cronies did the same we may just get jobs. Bet 100% she would not give away £150,000. She paid way too much for the job she done.

She dont critise those dont pay there taxes wonder why.

Infact they still got there snouts in the troughs with latest figures.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...s-survey-shows

Maybe about time make it criminal offense to give bigger payrise than workers. Crickey even if they get 1% same as everyone else its still bigger payrise. Why cant laws be put in place for pararity

Quote:


The soaraway pace of boardroom pay is highlighted in a survey on Tuesday, which shows the bosses of FTSE 100 companies enjoyed an average 12% rise in their take home pay last year, while their employees barely received any pay increases.

Maggy 13-06-2012 00:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Tell me mertle is there anything that doesn't make you rant..is there something you could share with us that could actually make us feel a bit more uplifted and cheerful?
Because frankly at the moment all I can think when I see one of your long rants is please no, not more doom.:(

Dai 13-06-2012 00:33

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Actually that's quite a neat idea. Salary increases in the boardroom should be no more than the same percentage rise as the lowest worker increase. Doing it as a percentage would still give them a much higher increase but it would be a real incentive to be fairer to the workers.

Hugh 13-06-2012 00:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Mertle, you do realise that no UN employee pays tax, don't you?

According to the Vienna convention,
Quote:

A diplomatic agent shall be exempt from all dues and taxes, personal or real, national, regional or municipal.”
Complain about her, and you are complaining about tens of thousands of UN employees throughout the years.

Osem 13-06-2012 10:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35440499)
Mertle, you do realise that no UN employee pays tax, don't you?

According to the Vienna convention, Complain about her, and you are complaining about tens of thousands of UN employees throughout the years.

Realisation, in so many ways, hasn't yet dawned... ;)

Chris 14-06-2012 12:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18438044
Quote:

Spain's borrowing costs have risen to another euro-era record, with lenders demanding a higher interest rate.
The yield on benchmark 10-year bonds hit 7% on Thursday morning, a level which many analysts believe is unsustainable in the long term.
It's brown trousers time again ...

danielf 14-06-2012 12:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35441290)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18438044


It's brown trousers time again ...

I stopped washing them some time ago. There's no point...

Osem 14-06-2012 18:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35441290)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18438044


It's brown trousers time again ...

Well that £80bn dose of EUphoria didn't didn't last long did it? Only a few days later it doesn't look much of a "victory for Spain, the Euro and Europe" does it?...

Meanwhile as the Germans rule out Eurobonds again:

Quote:

Germany's deputy finance minister has ruled out "eurobond-lite" plans to pool part of eurozone countries' debt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18438402

and:

Quote:

since Germany is opposed to using its financial strength to help other countries borrow through the sale of eurobonds, Germany would inevitably be opposed to helping other countries borrow by underwriting their respective banks.

And so it has proved - with the Bundesbank signalling its opposition to a banking union of this sort.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18414652

... the French and Italians are apparently saying in Rome that not enough progress is being made to solve the debt crisis...

(Link to follow)

Chris 14-06-2012 21:43

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It's the slowest slow motion train wreck of all time, but it really does look to have passed the point of no return now. The Euro is about to be rent asunder, in weeks or just a few months. The results of the Greek election this weekend will have a lot to do with the timing. If an anti-austerity coalition emerges in Athens, Germany will switch off the money taps pronto. Then we can do nothing but sit back and watch the fiscal fireworks.

Chris 17-06-2012 18:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The poling stations are shut, and early exit polls are too close to call. If they are precisely accurate, pro-austerity New Democracy has a 0.5pc lead over anti-austerity Syriza. Each party has polled between about 27 and 30pc of the total vote.

My view is that Syriza needs to win this so Greece rapidly moves to default, rupturing the Euro and bringing about the turmoil we all know is coming sooner or later. We need to take the hit and get on with fixing it. No solution is possible while the Euro-elites keep pretending that sticking-plaster solutions can win the day.

If New Democracy wins, then Greece will suffer a longer, more painful death spiral and we will have to wait until Spain or Italy runs out of money before the inevitable Eurogeddon occurs.

Sirius 17-06-2012 18:37

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35442726)
The poling stations are shut, and early exit polls are too close to call. If they are precisely accurate, pro-austerity New Democracy has a 0.5pc lead over anti-austerity Syriza. Each party has polled between about 27 and 30pc of the total vote.

My view is that Syriza needs to win this so Greece rapidly moves to default, rupturing the Euro and bringing about the turmoil we all know is coming sooner or later. We need to take the hit and get on with fixing it. No solution is possible while the Euro-elites keep pretending that sticking-plaster solutions can win the day.

If New Democracy wins, then Greece will suffer a longer, more painful death spiral and we will have to wait until Spain or Italy runs out of money before the inevitable Eurogeddon occurs.

Wise words Chris

Damien 18-06-2012 09:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I don't hope for a Euro-collapse. It will lead to another long depression and giving that I write software for banks/finance firms I am pretty sure my job can't survive another recession/banking crisis :D.

Osem 18-06-2012 09:56

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
A collapse of one sort or another is inevitable sadly IMHO. It's just a question of timing and scale. Once again we've seen markets rise due to the Greek vote but I doubt these fluctations will last or represent anything other than the sort of short term trading opportunities we've seen all too often when the greater of two perceived evils has been avoided (for now).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18482415

I believe the best we can hope for now is some form of managed restructuring of the Eurozone and a great deal of economic pain but given the intransigence and denial evident amongst the Eurocrats I doubt we'll get even that anytime soon.

Chris 18-06-2012 10:10

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The Euro is going to rupture. It's just a matter of where and when the dam will actually burst. Europe is in a depression; the world does not have enough money to keep bailing out banks and governments indefinitely. This is *going* to happen.

Had Syriza won the election in Greece last night, their refusal to abide by the terms of the country's bailout would have fairly quickly resulted in a massive default on sovereign debt and no option but for Greece to invent and print its own money in order to pay state employees - hence the return of the Drachma. With the fact of derogation from the single currency thus established it would then have been easier for other states to take the same decision when things got too tough.

New Democracy has won the election which means status quo for the time being at least (though ND does not have a working majority and a coalition is by no means assured). Thus, the leaky dam has been plugged in Athens for now. However, Spain and Italy are still right up the polluted watercourse without any obvious means of propulsion. That story is by no means played out yet. The day of reckoning may take a little longer to arrive, but it's coming.

Damien 18-06-2012 10:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Delaying the collapse is fine by me however. The more time until it happens the longer since the last recession and the more our banks can reduce their exposure to the weaker Euro economys.

Chris 18-06-2012 10:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
You would hope so ... :disturbd:

Meanwhile, right on cue, Spanish government borrowing costs have jumped straight back into the brown trousers zone, with yields on 10-year bonds now at an eye-watering 7.1%. 7% is generally considered to be unaffordable. Italy's are on the march too, hovering around a rather uncomfortable 6%.

Alan Fry 18-06-2012 12:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The trouble is that Germany (and its people) refuse to compromise the fact that Greece/Spain/Portugal/Ireland etc will not tolerate any more spending cuts or reforms. The time to do it (if ever) is when the economy has returned to a sort of "normal"

This does not help the fact they want to save the Euro, if they are prepaired for Europe to face a economic collapse and thus affect the German economy, then they need to scrap all but the least harsh austery measures. How can Greeks accept austerity, when the French, the Dutch and even the German State of North Rhine-Westphalia will not accept them!

This has gone beyond politics and beyond if the EU is a good or bad thing!

Like it or not a United States of Europe will need to emerge and Britain will have to deal with it carfully, we don't have to be a part of it (the other 26 nations can!), but we might lose Northern Ireland in the process

gba93 18-06-2012 16:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Fry (Post 35443017)
Like it or not a United States of Europe will need to emerge and Britain will have to deal with it carfully, we don't have to be a part of it (the other 26 nations can!), but we might lose Northern Ireland in the process

Sorry is that an advantage or disadvantage :rolleyes:

Alan Fry 19-06-2012 11:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by gba93 (Post 35443153)
Sorry is that an advantage or disadvantage :rolleyes:

Look I know a lot of you are Anti-EU, but the EU is a flawed organisation, its a badly run half-way house that is going nowhere!

We have a choice we either become part of a superpower (and play a leading role in it) and benefit from it, or we can become a vassal state of one!

denphone 22-06-2012 11:10

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Moody's downgrades 15 major banks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-18542691

Quote:

The credit ratings agency Moody's has downgraded 15 global banks and financial institutions.

The UK banks downgraded were Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and HSBC. Lloyds also had its rating cut by Moody's in a separate announcement.

In the US, Bank of America and Citigroup were among those marked down.

BBC business editor Robert Peston said that banks were concerned as the downgrades may make it harder for them to borrow money commercially.

Explaining the decision for the downgrade, Moody's global banking managing director Greg Bauer highlighted the banks' exposure to volatility in the world's financial markets.

He said that all of the banks affected by the downgrades had "significant exposure to the volatility and risk of outsized losses".

The other institutions that have been downgraded are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, Credit Suisse, UBS, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada.

Chris 22-06-2012 14:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The first fracture in the Euro might be in Italy ... Several senior parliamentarians are now loudly proclaiming that the country could do perfectly well thank you very much if they reintroduced the Lira and indulged in a little competitive devaluation, and are suggesting they might push for this if Mario Monti, the Euro-Quisling currently occupying the prime minister's office in Rome, is not able to extract concessions from Angela Merkel this week.

The mood music coming from the Germans, however, is not sounding good. They seem determined to stick to their guns (no debt mutualisation without fiscal union).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...t-at-home.html

Damien 22-06-2012 14:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Surely fiscal union is a must if they are going to share their debts? Otherwise they'll be back in the same position in a few years time....

Chris 22-06-2012 15:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It is. But as fiscal union effectively means Germany guaranteeing everyone's debts, Germany is calling the shots. Germany will not go for FU as the first step; it sees it as a desirable end goal. FU without first reforming the member economies and instilling them with German-style budgetary discipline is anathema to them - they see it as much the same as handing your credit card and PIN number to your teenage daughter so she can go shopping with her pals.

Osem 22-06-2012 16:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35444970)
The first fracture in the Euro might be in Italy ... Several senior parliamentarians are now loudly proclaiming that the country could do perfectly well thank you very much if they reintroduced the Lira and indulged in a little competitive devaluation, and are suggesting they might push for this if Mario Monti, the Euro-Quisling currently occupying the prime minister's office in Rome, is not able to extract concessions from Angela Merkel this week.

The mood music coming from the Germans, however, is not sounding good. They seem determined to stick to their guns (no debt mutualisation without fiscal union).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...t-at-home.html

Wonder how much of this is a result of the talks with Hollande in Rome last week? Could we be seeing the start of a French/Italian alliance ganging up on the Germans?

Osem 25-06-2012 21:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Cyprus to ask for bailout from eurozone partners
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18586532

Quote:

It said it needs help to shore up its banks, which are heavily exposed to the Greek economy.

Shares in Italy, Spain and Greece fell sharply amid concerns that an EU summit this week will again fail to produce a deal to shore up the euro.

The Italian and Spanish indexes both closed about 4% down. The fall on Spain's Ibex index was exacerbated by a Reuters report that the Moody's credit rating agency is planning to downgrade Spain's banks.

Earlier, Spain formally requested a bailout loan for its banking sector, expected to be for up to 100bn euros (£80.2bn, $125bn).
So it seems things are looking up in Europe then? :rolleyes:

Osem 26-06-2012 15:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Deep divisions between Germany and France?

Quote:

At this critical time, France and Germany are on different pages. It has generally been true that the European project has been driven forward when France and Germany are in step. They are not at the moment. There is a deep philosophical and political divide between them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18591931

Maggy 26-06-2012 16:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So how many shoes have to drop before anything collapses?:erm:

This is beginning to feel like the boy who cried wolf..When the crunch finally happens we won't believe it. :rolleyes:

Sirius 26-06-2012 16:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35446572)
So how many shoes have to drop before anything collapses?:erm:

This is beginning to feel like the boy who cried wolf..When the crunch finally happens we won't believe it. :rolleyes:

Maybe the thread title needs changing to The Eurozone will collapse eventually

Osem 27-06-2012 21:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has said Spain cannot afford to finance itself for long at current rates.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18606817

Wonder if this has anything to do with Merkel's recently repeated refusal to accept Eurobonds and the distinct feeling that not enough is being done to get to grips with this impending catastrophe. The pressure's really building on Frau Merkel and I reckon the blame game won't be long coming.

http://www.expatica.com/de/news/loca...ar_235819.html

http://news.yahoo.com/eurobonds-econ...111111634.html

Chris 27-06-2012 21:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35446572)
So how many shoes have to drop before anything collapses?:erm:

This is beginning to feel like the boy who cried wolf..When the crunch finally happens we won't believe it. :rolleyes:

It's already happening. The formal withdrawl of one or more member states from the single currency isn't the starting point of the collapse (mind you, it's not the end, either). From what I'm reading, the financial markets have for some time now been treating their dealings with each Eurozone member as if they are dealing with a country that belongs to a fixed exchange rate mechanism, rather than a single currency. So far as the money bags are concerned, it's already a done deal.

Osem 27-06-2012 21:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35447272)
It's already happening. The formal withdrawl of one or more member states from the single currency isn't the starting point of the collapse (mind you, it's not the end, either). From what I'm reading, the financial markets have for some time now been treating their dealings with each Eurozone member as if they are dealing with a country that belongs to a fixed exchange rate mechanism, rather than a single currency. So far as the money bags are concerned, it's already a done deal.

We can only hope that this belief will mean that when the 'inevitable' happens, the fallout won't be quite as bad as it would have been had they accepted the Eurocrats' version of reality.


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