Re: Brexit
 

Sorry Angua, but that is a completely crass argument. If MPs are elected on a manifesto commitment, they should not actively work on trying to overturn that commitment.

Your view of things would mean that the electorate would not be able to judge which party to elect on the basis of their manifestos. That would be ridiculous.

Re: Brexit
 

Did either manifesto specify when we would leave the EU?

Re: Brexit
 

Which they are legally and morally quite entitled too do

---------- Post added at 15:14 ---------- Previous post was at 15:10 ----------

No, it’s along the same lines where you pointed out that general public had little to no idea politics worked.

They are as entitled too change their minds as much as we are

To call someone treacherous because they’re not doing what you want is akin to a small child throwing its rattle out of its pram

---------- Post added at 15:19 ---------- Previous post was at 15:14 ----------

Manifestos/campaign pledges are valid until the acquired result is achieved. The leave campaign is a good example of this.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

No such thing exists.

Manifestos are commitments, but if it becomes clear it's not possible to leave the EU in the manner people believed we would at the time (easiest trade deal ever etc.) it's entirely reasonable for any political party to step back and say yes, there's a commitment to leave the EU, but let's get it right.

We could leave the EU in 2049 and it'd honour the manifesto result.

Re: Brexit
 

Not forgetting, the Labour Manifesto specifically ruled out No Deal, where this was only mentioned once in the Tory Manifesto (deal was mentioned a further 28 times).

Re: Brexit
 

I'll bear that in mind when you, if you haven't already, complain that a government hasn't fulfilled a manifesto pledge.

Re: Brexit
 

I assume you mean if/when we leave the EU. If/when we leave the EU I'll accept that it was the natural outcome of a series of events I wish hadn't happened.

I've said in the thread before I stand to benefit financially from the most chaotic Brexit possible - this farce dragging out and ending in no deal would suit me personally, but I recognise that the national interest is in getting it right.

Re: Brexit
 

I meant "hasn't fulfilled". Weird type of error I keep making when preparing posts.


It's not in the national interest to have a Labour government, especially a Corbyn and McDonnell one.


The "farce" started with Gina Miller etc.

Re: Brexit
 

Not true. Failure to adhere to a previous manifesto is a frequent source of political strife during a government’s term of office and causes problems at the following election. Governments typically try to at least look like they’re following them. And when they try to do something unpopular that wasn’t in the manifesto, governments frequently find the Lords become more obstructive, because the convention that the upper house does not obstruct the Commons is weakened when the Commons itself weakens the convention that election manifestos are taken seriously.

However, besides all that, the referendum campaign was not an election and there were no manifestos nor were there any campaign pledges. Nobody was running for office. The referendum was a battle of ideas and the same British government was committed to adopting, as policy, whichever outcome prevailed.

Re: Brexit
 

Thank you for the clarification. I’m used to being disappointed by manifestos!

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

So what about Kate Hoey and other Labour MPs who voted against taking No Deal off the table. This was a specific Labour Manifesto pledge, to rule out No Deal.

Our electoral system actually gives the voters Hobson's choice in most cases. Some lucky few vote for who they want as their MP knowing their vote matters, others vote for the person they want despite party manifestos. Others vote to stop what they really don't want, even if that option is only slightly less bad.

Manifestos only seem to be vital when politicians are not doing what you want. - Welcome to my world, I have never been able to vote for an MP I would like, with even a remote chance of my vote making a difference. Still I vote to show how unrepresentative our electoral system is.

Assuming people voted for MPs based solely on Manifestos is where you are missing the point.

Re: Brexit
 

If you really want no deal, and believe it reasonable (and I actually do given specific circumstances) why not call it 1st January 2023? What is there to fear from it?

Re: Brexit
 

The issue isn't wanting a full-on "No Deal", but what the alternative is. The current "deal"(ie withdrawal agreement) has a permanent customs union, and implied freedom of movement as a highly likely outcome.

Re: Brexit
 

There was a programme on Channel 4 last night that looked into the truth about the impact of a no deal Brexit on our food supplies:

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/food-unwrapped

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Next week, I think most of the ERG will back May for the 3rd Meaningful Vote, confident they can wreck the treaty at a later date.

Re: Brexit
 

That’s fine. However proves why the referendum was a bad choice. You are actually admitting that given a period of time the population as a whole will change their mind!

Re: Brexit
 

I think that’s the only pragmatic stance they can take. Until about a week ago they could still have told themselves No Deal was there to play for but parliamentary manoeuvrings since then have made that impossible. The EU27 will easily agree a short technical delay to allow the WA to be implemented, and they will hold their noses and agree a very long extension if, by the time May goes to the summit, the WA has not been ratified. That very long delay puts No Deal off the table in all but name and pretty much guarantees that Brexit, if it eventually occurs, will be far softer than the present deal allows. It also increases the risk of a further referendum occurring, or a general election. In essence, if the ERG have a brain cell between them they will see that now’s the time to cut their losses and vote the WA through.

---------- Post added at 19:12 ---------- Previous post was at 19:10 ----------

If subjected to a two year campaign of orchestrated chaos by EU and British government negotiators, all of whom wanted Remain to win and still think that in an ideal world Brexit shouldn’t happen, then yes, a population can be induced to change its mind.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Big man Farage has set out on his Brexit March from Sunderland. His massed ranks amounted to 100... (the Peoples Vote march got 670,000).
Apparently His Grace has decided not to do all of it. Doubtless the first and last 100 yards...

Oh, and they'll arrive in London, in time for Brexit not to happen on 29/3..

Re: Brexit
 

Just as well we have an electoral system that evens things out isn’t it, otherwise whichever cause the professional agitators choose to support would always win.

Re: Brexit
 

Yes they'll kowtow to save face in the end. As for wrecking, they've already done that to the country.

Re: Brexit
 

That would demonstrate that we have a less free democracy than North Korea. At least there you can vote without a "gun to the head".

Re: Brexit
 

The opinion of the present is always more valid than the opinion of the past.

If prole are fatigued by the lack of the courage in their convictions, or that they realise the promises of Brexit are lies, that’s all democracy if given a further choice.

Re: Brexit
 

Depends if a third vote is actually held. Nothing is a given in this post-Brexit vote political world. Per Robert Peston:
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-16/...esa-mays-deal/

Re: Brexit
 

The DUP are in the bag already, they've been paid off.

What I'd really like to ask any Brexiteer who has miraculously changed their mind - How is TMs deal better than the status quo and what's changed? Answers on a postcard.....

Re: Brexit
 

Try to think of it from the point of view of a Maastricht rebel, or anyone else who has objected to our membership of what the EU became as a result of that treaty (made effective in the UK via the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993).

It has been a very long game to get to this point. Whatever the withdrawal agreement says, it is, crucially, a treaty between the European Union and a third party. We are going to be outside the EU. That is the critical victory we have won. What we do with that status - what “changes”, as you put it - is for future generations of voters and politicians to decide. The point is, British policy is decided in Britain, not Brussels. That’s something I think some of the ERG have lost sight of in the febrile atmosphere of the past few weeks.

Re: Brexit
 

Totally agree :) it's such a nice warm feeling the closer we get.It has been such a long and tedious journey at times but worth the wait :D

Re: Brexit
 

So what you're saying is as long as it has the word Brexit, attached, and no matter what the cost or conditions, it's worth it.
BRINO I'm afraid old chap, read the WA.

Re: Brexit
 

Nope ... outside the Treaty of Rome, outside the acquis, outside the customs union and the single market. That’s leaving the EU. Whatever we agree to in the WA is a transitional arrangement to bridge the next 18 months or so. After that, we give and take as befits our mutual interest with the EU.

We are permanently outside of, and no longer bound by the acquis communautaire, and in no further danger of having national sovereignty eroded by qualified majority vote.

Re: Brexit
 

Seriously?

In NK, the gun to the head isn’t "in quotes" or metaphorical, it’s actual.

You need to take a long hard serious look at your world-view if you actually think that we have a less free democracy than North Korea.

Re: Brexit
 

Not for voting it isn't. They only have one candidate per area, which might be seen the same as very safe seats in the UK.


Regardless, it is still a total corruption of democracy to say "vote for this or else something worse will be put in its place".

---------- Post added at 01:12 ---------- Previous post was at 00:55 ----------

The WA continues the single market, customs union, freedom of movement, obeying EU rules, obeying the CJEU. We will still be bound by the EUs competence(ie legal authority).

Re: Brexit
 

The Law hasn’t changed yet, it still says we leave on 29th March, 2019 it’s going to take some doing to get a Bill put through all the stages, readings, secondary readings, committee stages, ping ponged through the Lords, final readings and then receiving royal assent in the space of 12 days, minus 2 for weekend as parliament doesn’t sit then. So that’s 10 days.

Also, 670,000 was not the true amount, is highly exaggerated by PV themselves. Expert analysis puts it at 400,000 total. Rather tiny in comparison to the actual leave result tally of 17.4 Million. Farage’s march wasn’t a rally, it was a walk and it was limited to 200 and all 200 turned up, despite what the Fake News Media stated.

The winners of a Democratic vote shouldn’t need to protest. And the Democratic test was passed in 2016 via the ballot box, that’s how we really measure the nations desires, leave won by over a million more votes!

So march away, come back when you have over 17.4 Million. :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

I think the UK legislature can move quickly when it wants to. Let's see what happens, with Brexit you can never be sure one way or t'other!
I'm not sure comparing marchers to voters has any logic to it; likewise comparing the numbers willing to walk 20 miles a day for ten days or more takes more commitment and fitness than a half-day walk round London.

Re: Brexit
 

The WA is a time-limited treaty between the EU and a third party. Under its provisions, we are no longer members of the EU and are following its rules in order to allow an orderly transition.

As I said - which you have curiously ignored - getting us out of the EU has been a long game. It will continue to be so, in part because of the very complexities that many of us have long argued have effectively eroded our sovereignty in practice.

Securing a referendum was the first major victory. Winning it was the second. Leaving the EU is the third. After that, we are free to chart our own course and to diverge from the EU, over time, where it benefits us. This is a freedom we do not presently have, but which we soon will.

Re: Brexit
 

According to Radio 4, within the last five minutes, Esther McVey (leaver) has said that if there is enough support for her, she will be standing at the next Tory leadership contest.

Re: Brexit
 

This is Brexit related to bear with me.

When we have a next election I predict that Labour will not be in governemt ot opposion, but the will be virtually wiped out.

Last week on Radio 5 Live they were talking to voters from Labour strongholds up north, many people in these areas will not vote or never vote again, and they were Labour voters.

I have not seen any BBC program since 9am on Thursday as they seem so anti Brexit.

The final nail in the coffin was when they didn't shoot down or challenge some bint who wanted another referendum beacause and i Quote "Because those old people who voted to leave will more than like be dead, and those who were to young to vote and wanted to remain can now vote"

If my radio at work wasn't so expensive I would have launched it.

Re: Brexit
 

Strange they got Brexit support in a vox pop in a Brexit supporting area, at a time of day when most people would be at work..

Re: Brexit
 

Since the invention of the telephone any one can phone into a radio show for an interview even if they are at work .

Re: Brexit
 

Yes, that's quite a common view amongst Remainers. What they seem to have overlooked is that whilst old people die off, they are replaced by more old people. And the baby boomers are coming!

I would also say that the reason so many young people are remainers is that they are indoctrinated by the teachers at school and the lecturers at colleges and universities.

Re: Brexit
 

It's funny that I supported brexit and I work..

Re: Brexit
 

Not taking either side here but what a load of patronising insulting hogwash as young people can make up their own minds about the world without the arrogant and condescending attitude of some of those a bit older who think they know it all about everything.

Re: Brexit
 

I remember being in middle school around 1988 and the science teacher telling our class about fossil fuels running out in 15-20 years time. Well here we are over 30 years on from that statement.

Schools and uni's have always bent to the left. To say the teachers in the classes never put their own personal views to the class is nonsense.

Re: Brexit
 

And clearly, some do make up their own minds to the contrary. I was generalising, of course, as do those who claim that it's only the older generation who voted for Brexit. Not true, but there is an element of truth in it.

In the world of academia, you get taken to task quite severely if you say you support Brexit, dare to question climate change or criticise left wing views. In that environment, people can be overly influenced by views that they would not otherwise believe in.

It is not confined to young people and education either. One of my meteorologist friends told me that there was scepticism over the global warming campaign but they were threatened that their careers would suffer if they continued to promote that view.

So much for being a free thinking society.

Re: Brexit
 

Don't worry we are the fossil fuel of the future;)

Re: Brexit
 

Teachers are there to teach whether their own political beliefs are left , right or anything else and my own educational experiences at school were totally devoid of any political bias one way or the other..

Re: Brexit
 

How on earth (or underneath earth ;)) is predicting when fossil fuels will run out left wing or right wing?

Re: Brexit
 

When I was at school I asked a political question and the reply was that he couldn't offer his view because that would be indoctrination and it was illegal for teachers to do it.

I can remember being told that oil would run out in the year 2000!

Re: Brexit
 

Labour signals no-confidence vote if May is defeated in a third meaningful vote. Fox and Hammond both saying no meaningful vote if Theresa May looks set to lose it. https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-co...omise-11668175

---------- Post added at 12:33 ---------- Previous post was at 11:34 ----------

Denying climate-change is pretty much in the same category now as flat-earthers. So any academics would rightly pull you up on this.

Re: Brexit
 

Ah yes, flat earthers.

Re: Brexit
 

I was refering to the older generation stating in a science lesson I had while in middle school about fossil fuels and what he said from whatever facts he got this info from.

That comment wasn't a left or right wing comment but aimed at a response that the older generation know everything.

---------- Post added at 13:16 ---------- Previous post was at 13:14 ----------

Of course they aren't allowed to teach right or left wing views...however this doesn't stop them giving kids a push in their own way behind them 4 walls in a class room

Re: Brexit
 

You'd love the Daily Fail headline today. Apparently Comic Relief is a left wing conspiracy by the BBC !

Re: Brexit
 

I think that a lot of teachers would take exception to that.

Re: Brexit
 

Yep! I do. Having taught general studies and covering our political system I had to be neutral and try to get the students to try and understand that they should vote if they wanted to effect any changes in their lives I was troubled by their total apathy. It’s hard to influence the totally uninterested.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47602746

Re: Brexit
 

Not surprising really. They’re cutting off the ERG’s ability to turn up and vote against, keeping their principles intact, while secretly hoping enough people will change their minds to vote it through.

Either they get on board now, or they accept responsibility for a lengthy delay and an almost certainly softer Brexit than is currently on offer.

Re: Brexit
 

You referred to the Treaty of Rome and being outside the EU. I made the point that the WA keeps us outside of those things, but still bound by their rules. Then there is the issue of the "backstop". That will entail a hard border in the Irish Sea with NI still forced to obey EU rules, or the UK as a whole has to follow them.

Re: Brexit
 

Things have changed at schools and unis since our day, Den.

Re: Brexit
 

Yes, they don't use chalk and slates anymore... :D

Re: Brexit
 

Actually, scientists admit there is no conclusive proof that it is carbon that is causing any warming that may be taking place. However, it is certainly their opinion that this is the cause.

Strange, really, given that the amount of carbon absorbed into the atmosphere has not changed much over time and is still within the normal range. Sadly, no-one yet has been able to explain this evidence.

Anyway, back to Brexit, where so many eminent forecasters are confidently predicting that the UK will be worse off for the foreseeable future despite not having factored in the opportunities that will open up as a result. At least we will be able to prove them wrong a lot quicker than when the scientists finally have to admit the errors that have been made in respect of their global warming forecasts.

As far as Labour's no confidence vote is concerned, they are just playing games. They know full well they won't win that. What a bunch of time wasters they are.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

And if the scientists are right? -Doomsday, a risk worth taking?

As for the no confidence vote, it's possible. The ERG contain a few nutters who will cut off their noses to spite their face. If it gets rid of May and her deal they might be tempted... Doubtless they'd hope a new ultra right wing Govt. and a 'proper' Brexit would result. It won't of course.

Re: Brexit
 

All that pent up hatred is going to give you stomach ulcers if you don't relax and keep calm;)

Re: Brexit
 

Like they were right when they told us butter was bad for you, which was incorrect, as they now admit something like 40 years later.

The ERG will not support a no confidence vote and they have stated this. It's a no-deal Brexit they are passionate about, not another election.

Re: Brexit
 

Probably the funniest quote of the week. :)

---------- Post added at 21:37 ---------- Previous post was at 21:32 ----------

I am with Mr K on this one. The people who want to take this country to their No Deal, free market paradise are beneath contempt. They betray their country, their communities and their fellow citizens.

---------- Post added at 21:38 ---------- Previous post was at 21:37 ----------

Yes, they cannot afford them .. unless the parents buy them for the school

Re: Brexit
 

quite a few ERG moving to vote for Mays deal now

Re: Brexit
 

The offer made to the DUP:
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-17/...fered-the-dup/

Re: Brexit
 

It’d be hilarious if they bought it and a future UK Government reneged.

Re: Brexit
 

That's the risk. I also doubt the ERG would be keen.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

At some point in the future the choice will be whether to give England the Brexit it wants or not. Leaving Northern Ireland in regulatory alignment with the EU is a small price to pay, and I suspect we’d have paid it by now if the DUP weren’t propping up the Government.

Re: Brexit
 

Yes, I'd fall off my seat in a fit of laughter at such hilarity.

---------- Post added at 09:54 ---------- Previous post was at 09:53 ----------

No Prime Minister would ever sanction the break up of the United Kingdom which is what that would be.

Re: Brexit
 

It's looking like a hardline of ERG members will continue to vote against the deal as well as Boris Johnson. Enough to kill it. So May's deal might not come forward now.

Re: Brexit
 

Maybe not this week., But next week afters she's been to the EU and negotiated/begged for a LONG delay, the Brexiteers will start to blink very rapidly and vote for it on the 27th/28th.

Turns out we didn't hold all or any cards after all, and we've over estimated our importance, who'd have thought it ?

Re: Brexit
 

Bit difficult for the government to hold any cards when remain MP's forced them to show thier hand.

Re: Brexit
 

Labour won't back it in sufficient numbers. Last time Government talked of winning round 30 Labour MPs. They got three.
So extension and election likely. Second referendum has no legs.

Re: Brexit
 

Not yet it doesn't, however if May cant get this through (and i suspect she will) and the EU hold position that the withdrawal agreement is non negotiable. then a 2nd referendum would seem to be the only plausible way forward.

Re: Brexit
 

If they had any cards at all in the first place we wouldn’t be in this position.

Europe has held one steady position throughout. We have not. We still can’t agree a position, despite the leadership of both main parties supporting Brexit.

Re: Brexit
 

Only plausible way forward after that is an election.
MPs are against 1) No-deal Brexit 2) Second referendum. I think those are fundamental factors in Brexit.

---------- Post added at 13:01 ---------- Previous post was at 12:59 ----------

Spot on. Divided they rule has summed up our position.

Re: Brexit
 

What will a GE do ?

EU won't change position, no deal won't be allowed.

I don't see any other alternatives ?

Re: Brexit
 

And look what happened with our last general election...

Re: Brexit
 

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/stat...08543946031104

Re: Brexit
 

you mean it was a big lie from leavers that we hold all the cards we were never ever holding all the cards

Re: Brexit
 

The problem we have is that the negotiations have been held too publicly. The noises off from the remainers have disrupted those negotiations, and with the ERG joining in the disruption as a counterbalance, the EU have been able to take advantage of that.

The real issue has not been with the EU, it's been with the remainer-dominated House of Commons. I don't think anyone expected that, given that both major parties pledged to honour the referendum.

Re: Brexit
 

The problem has always been triggering A50 without a plan. We put ourselves under pressure.

Re: Brexit
 

Exactly.

Re: Brexit
 

We could have delayed triggering for two years to identify what we wanted a deal to look like and what no deal would look like. We could then credibly “threaten” a no deal outcome. Right now we are a laughing stock.

Re: Brexit
 

No MV 3

Re: Brexit
 

Bercow:

Re: Brexit
 

A 415 Year old precedent could cost Theresa May her premiership.

Re: Brexit
 

Was going to lose it so she's probably happy.

Link to news: https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-m...-deal-11669533

Re: Brexit
 

Yeah I think if anything Bercow has bailed her out.

Re: Brexit
 

If this is the case why did MV2 take place ? Make it up as they go along these politicians !

Re: Brexit
 

only if a loses a vote of no confidence in government as tory lost there chance to force her out for a year and no tory gonna vote for a general election

Re: Brexit
 

There were new legal assurances from the EU compared to the first vote which may have been enough to say it was different

Re: Brexit
 

That is correct, and the Speaker explained that.

Ah, well, looks like we may be out with a no deal in the next fortnight, then.

Re: Brexit
 

And he's now just said that MPs can agree to suspend the rule if they wish. So it's now with them to decide what to do.

A vote to decide whether to vote of the thing they've already voted on. Gotta love politics.