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Mick 14-03-2019 18:38

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986657)
Well not until the EU agree I guess but it's now written into law that if May's deal passes then we leave on the 30th June and if it doesn't then a longer extension.

From the UK side No Deal is no longer the default. From the EU side it is.

But right now it appears we're not leaving this month at least.

No it’s not written in to law, a motion has passed not a Statute. Requires Primary legislation and Bill to be voted on and receive Royal Ascension.

papa smurf 14-03-2019 18:42

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986659)
Still will be. If May's deal passes then 30th June is the exit date.

Unless the EU reject an extension.

Damien 14-03-2019 18:44

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35986660)
No it’s not written in to law, a motion has passed not a Statute. Requires Primary legislation and Bill to be voted on and receive Royal Ascension.

Ok fair enough but either way unless the EU says no we're not leaving this month. The Government and Parliament are now both agreed on it. I am not actually sure how this then gets put into law but I assume that's not going to be an issue for them.

---------- Post added at 18:44 ---------- Previous post was at 18:43 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35986661)
Unless the EU reject an extension.

Yes although no one expects an issue with a short extension it seems.

Carth 14-03-2019 18:51

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35986661)
Unless the EU reject an extension.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986662)

Yes although no one expects an issue with a short extension it seems.

I wonder how much the EU will ask for, seeing as they've been put to a lot of trouble recently organising for a no deal scenario ;)

Damien 14-03-2019 18:57

Re: Brexit
 
I think the EU will now be putting a lot of pressure for Parliament to vote for May's deal tbh.

Carth 14-03-2019 19:01

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986667)
I think the EU will now be putting a lot of pressure for Parliament to vote for May's deal tbh.

Yeah good call . . it's a crap deal for the UK but nice for the EU

1andrew1 14-03-2019 19:09

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35986670)
Yeah good call . . it's a crap deal for the UK but nice for the EU

It's only a withdrawal agreement. The main negotiations will be around the trade deal

papa smurf 14-03-2019 19:32

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986667)
I think the EU will now be putting a lot of pressure for Parliament to vote for May's deal tbh.

I agree as i think only if a deal is signed will they grant an extension.

1andrew1 14-03-2019 19:55

Re: Brexit
 
Is it worth going with a short extension and hope that it focuses minds or a long one so we can sort everything out?

Hugh 14-03-2019 20:14

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35986681)
Is it worth going with a short extension and hope that it focuses minds or a long one so we can sort everything out?

Well, 2 years didn't focus minds...

denphone 14-03-2019 20:17

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35986687)
Well, 2 years didn't focus minds...

More war-war rather then jaw-jaw..

Chris 14-03-2019 21:08

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35986681)
Is it worth going with a short extension and hope that it focuses minds or a long one so we can sort everything out?

The EU is unlikely to agree to any extension unless the other 27 heads of government can see a purpose to it.

The way in which the extension motion was worded was designed to force the Commons to acknowledge that the EU may refuse to go along with it in the absence of a credible plan, and that the most credible plan is a short extension to allow the withdrawal agreement to be ratified and brought into effect.

Expect that to be rammed home when May kicks off Meaningful Vote 3 next week.

1andrew1 14-03-2019 21:10

Re: Brexit
 
Must rank up there for the MP with the least credibility! :D
Quote:

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay voted against the government's motion on delaying Brexit tonight, despite having commended it to MPs less than an hour-and-a-half earlier.

At the end of the debate, preceding tonight's votes, Barclay told MPs: "It is time for this House to act in the national interest. It is time to put forward an extension that is realistic. I commend the government motion to the House."

He then voted against it.
See 19.28 at https://news.sky.com/story/live-mps-...-deal-11664834

Chris 14-03-2019 21:12

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986657)
Well not until the EU agree I guess but it's now written into law that if May's deal passes then we leave on the 30th June and if it doesn't then a longer extension.

From the UK side No Deal is no longer the default. From the EU side it is.

But right now it appears we're not leaving this month at least.

If Brexit has revealed anything, it’s how little many people understand of parliamentary procedures and the difference between a motion designed to exhibit the will of the House and a Bill which must go through several distinct phases before coming into force as an Act which makes, amends or repeals law.

No new Act was passed last night. No law has changed. Even if the EU agrees to an extension, a Bill amending the EU (Withdrawal) Act will still have to be introduced and rushed through readings, committees and the Lords in super-quick time.

Damien 14-03-2019 21:35

Re: Brexit
 
Yes, sorry, I recognised that above. Got ahead of myself.

RichardCoulter 14-03-2019 23:43

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986694)
If Brexit has revealed anything, it’s how little many people understand of parliamentary procedures and the difference between a motion designed to exhibit the will of the House and a Bill which must go through several distinct phases before coming into force as an Act which makes, amends or repeals law.

No new Act was passed last night. No law has changed. Even if the EU agrees to an extension, a Bill amending the EU (Withdrawal) Act will still have to be introduced and rushed through readings, committees and the Lords in super-quick time.

It would really put the cat amongst the pigeons if, after Parliament eventually sorted something out, to top it off the Queen excercised her right not to sign the bill 🤣🤣🤣

TheDaddy 15-03-2019 01:42

Re: Brexit
 
It's all getting rather desperate, farage trying to conspire with foreign agents to agitate, mugg evoking presidents from the 1800's, that's appropriate for him, to try and get the queen to 'prorogue' parliament, anyone thinking Mrs May is doing a bad job should take a look at these clowns, the grass isn't always greener...


Just read a really good opinion piece by Andrew Pearce in yesterday's fail to btw, well worth a look if you get the chance

Mick 15-03-2019 07:01

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35986707)
It's all getting rather desperate, farage trying to conspire with foreign agents to agitate, mugg evoking presidents from the 1800's, that's appropriate for him, to try and get the queen to 'prorogue' parliament, anyone thinking Mrs May is doing a bad job should take a look at these clowns, the grass isn't always greener...


Just read a really good opinion piece by Andrew Pearce in yesterday's fail to btw, well worth a look if you get the chance

But you have no issue, when the likes of Blair, Dominic Grieve conspire with foreign leaders and ministers to thwart and frustrate Brexit. One way to describe this.... “Double Standards”. :rolleyes:

And what’s this evoking presidents, how does that method work, or surely you meant precedent?

TheDaddy 15-03-2019 07:34

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35986713)
But you have no issue, when the likes of Blair, Dominic Grieve conspire with foreign leaders and ministers to thwart and frustrate Brexit. One way to describe this.... “Double Standards”. :rolleyes:

And what’s this evoking presidents, how does that method work, or surely you meant precedent?

Don't I? Perhaps it's best to check before you blunder in and accuse someone of double standards, I've no time for bliar or anything he does, never have and I was never taken in by him either, said it many, many times on this site and in the spirit of checking things, perhaps I'll check the predictive text next time to.

Chris 15-03-2019 07:44

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35986703)
It would really put the cat amongst the pigeons if, after Parliament eventually sorted something out, to top it off the Queen excercised her right not to sign the bill 🤣🤣🤣

There are some in the ERG who, deep down, hope that something like that might happen...

Mick 15-03-2019 08:09

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35986716)
Don't I? Perhaps it's best to check before you blunder in and accuse someone of double standards, I've no time for bliar or anything he does, never have and I was never taken in by him either, said it many, many times on this site and in the spirit of checking things, perhaps I'll check the predictive text next time to.

I don’t “blunder in” for your information, actually. And I reaffirm the double standards because I see no complaints from you regarding “Remainers” meetings with foreign leaders to sabotage Brexit, so it must be ok for them but totally outrageous, that Farage is insisting one of the 27 to veto UK’s request for extension and actually let Brexit happen, which is what actually won the Democratic vote.

Chris 15-03-2019 08:12

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986667)
I think the EU will now be putting a lot of pressure for Parliament to vote for May's deal tbh.

The evidence for this will be when we start hearing them talk about offering a lengthy delay. They will (rightly) point out that a short delay is useless, unless it’s to pass the existing deal. A long delay allows the possibility of ripping up the withdrawal agreement and coming up with something entirely different, which will also most likely be much softer, and more like an EFTA style arrangement.

I don’t believe the EU is keen for a long delay but I do think they’re not above helping Teresa May to get the existing withdrawal agreement over the line by scaring the ERG and the DUP into taking it, at the risk of ending up with something worse.

Damien 15-03-2019 08:16

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986722)
The evidence for this will be when we start hearing them talk about offering a lengthy delay. They will (rightly) point out that a short delay is useless, unless it’s to pass the existing deal. A long delay allows the possibility of ripping up the withdrawal agreement and coming up with something entirely different, which will also most likely be much softer, and more like an EFTA style arrangement.

I don’t believe the EU is keen for a long delay but I do think they’re not above helping Teresa May to get the existing withdrawal agreement over the line by scaring the ERG and the DUP into taking it, at the risk of ending up with something worse.

I think they'll do the opposite. Scare the reminder of Parliament to voting for it by saying a lengthy delay might not be granted. I think that is also whats makes sense from their point of view, they'll have little desire to keep dragging this out.

1andrew1 15-03-2019 08:25

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986719)
There are some in the ERG who, deep down, hope that something like that might happen...

That surely says a lot about the ERG's distance from reality.

---------- Post added at 08:25 ---------- Previous post was at 08:21 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35986713)
But you have no issue, when the likes of Blair, Dominic Grieve conspire with foreign leaders and ministers to thwart and frustrate Brexit. One way to describe this.... “Double Standards”. :rolleyes:

And what’s this evoking presidents, how does that method work, or surely you meant precedent?

The point is still a valid one regardless of diversions around spelling and what a particular PM may have done or not done ten years ago - Farage looks desperate. He may well not be but he looks it.

TheDaddy 15-03-2019 08:35

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35986720)
I don’t “blunder in” for your information, actually. And I reaffirm the double standards because I see no complaints from you regarding “Remainers” meetings with foreign leaders to sabotage Brexit, so it must be ok for them but totally outrageous, that Farage is insisting one of the 27 to veto UK’s request for extension and actually let Brexit happen, which is what actually won the Democratic vote.

Actually I think I did complain about Obama and his back of the queue trade deal but in this post fact world we're now living in that probably doesn't count So you reaffirm away.

Mick 15-03-2019 08:37

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35986724)
That surely says a lot about the ERG's distance from reality.

---------- Post added at 08:25 ---------- Previous post was at 08:21 ----------


The point is still a valid one regardless of diversions around spelling and what a particular PM may have done or not done ten years ago - Farage looks desperate. He may well not be but he looks it.

The point is irrelevant especially when Remainers behave the same way, you appear to be another with double standards. :rolleyes:

The obsession with Farage, by some of you is pathetic, just because he is a Brexit champion and actually believes in democracy and it’s values. I don’t see desperation. I see annoyance and so he should be, along with 17.4 Million people.

TheDaddy 15-03-2019 08:38

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986719)
There are some in the ERG who, deep down, hope that something like that might happen...

Yes mogg for a start, he's hoping the Queen will 'prorogue' parliament

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 08:53

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35986152)
The ERG should be renamed to ‘Moggmentum" - they are exactly the same as Momentum, only in the Right Wing.

What? As an anti-semitic bunch of thugs?

denphone 15-03-2019 09:08

Re: Brexit
 
ERG are much more suited to Nigel Farage's old party rather then the Conservative party..

heero_yuy 15-03-2019 09:30

Re: Brexit
 
17.4 million lions led by 650 donkeys. :rolleyes:

Damien 15-03-2019 09:44

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35986730)
The obsession with Farage, by some of you is pathetic, just because he is a Brexit champion and actually believes in democracy and it’s values.

He said there should be a second referendum if Leave lost.

---------- Post added at 09:44 ---------- Previous post was at 09:43 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35986739)
17.4 million lions led by 650 donkeys. :rolleyes:

66 million. They represent everyone.

mrmistoffelees 15-03-2019 10:23

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35986739)
17.4 million lions led by 650 donkeys. :rolleyes:

Potentially Lions, but, also just as equally, potentially Lemmings

jonbxx 15-03-2019 10:32

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986694)
If Brexit has revealed anything, it’s how little many people understand of parliamentary procedures and the difference between a motion designed to exhibit the will of the House and a Bill which must go through several distinct phases before coming into force as an Act which makes, amends or repeals law.

Also, what is the role of a member of parliament? Is it to be a delegate of the people of their constituents or a trustee for their constituency?

Edmund Burke said in 1774;

Quote:

'Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion … Parliament is not a congress of ambassadors from different and hostile interests, which interests each must maintain, as an agent and advocate, against other agents and advocates; but parliament is a deliberative assembly of one nation, with one interest, that of the whole; where, not local purposes, not local prejudices ought to guide, but the general good, resulting from the general reason of the whole. You choose a member indeed; but when you have chosen him, he is not member of Bristol, but he is a member of parliament.'
Winston Churchill said in 1954;

Quote:

'The first duty of a member of Parliament is to do what he thinks in his faithful and disinterested judgement is right and necessary for the honour and safety of Great Britain. His second duty is to his constituents, of whom he is the representative but not the delegate. Burke's famous declaration on this subject is well known. It is only in the third place that his duty to party organization or programme takes rank. All these three loyalties should be observed, but there in no doubt of the order in which they stand under any healthy manifestation of democracy.'

mrmistoffelees 15-03-2019 10:34

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35986758)
Also, what is the role of a member of parliament? Is it to be a delegate of the people of their constituents or a trustee for their constituency?

Edmund Burke said in 1774;



Winston Churchill said in 1954;

:clap:

OLD BOY 15-03-2019 10:40

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35986758)
Also, what is the role of a member of parliament? Is it to be a delegate of the people of their constituents or a trustee for their constituency?

Edmund Burke said in 1774;



Winston Churchill said in 1954;

And if they get it wrong, we'll vote them out next time.

GrimUpNorth 15-03-2019 10:49

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35986764)
And if they get it wrong, we'll vote them out next time.

That's the good thing about our democracy - the people get to change their mind if they don't like they way things are going (that is unless it's a non binding referendum).

Carth 15-03-2019 11:05

Re: Brexit
 
Mark Twain said; “Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”

:D

jfman 15-03-2019 12:26

Re: Brexit
 
A truly historic, yet embarrassingly predictable, set of events in the history of our country. We’ve no plans for Brexit, no political will for Brexit and the politicians aren’t taking responsibility.

Of course, “Europe will blink at the last minute” was the mantra and here we are - the last hope for Brexit on March 29th is Europe facilitating it! Even then I wouldn’t rule out our politicians unilaterally riscinding it.

Even under the plan we devised six months ago we are admitting we need a 3 month technical extension. I’d laugh uncontrollably if the EU rejected an extension - we’ve essentially admitted we aren’t ready so it’d be an excellent demonstration to other Member States considering leaving of what the actual consequences are.

nomadking 15-03-2019 12:30

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35986687)
Well, 2 years didn't focus minds...

Yes it did. Those that are determined to stop Brexit and overturn democracy.
Link.
Quote:

As of now, it looks as if they’ve won. They’re certainly well ahead on away goals.
Ruling out No Deal effectively means No Brexit.
Be in no doubt that what we are witnessing is a coup against the people. There may
not be tanks on the streets, but it’s a coup all the same. A few hundred MPs have
decided to defy the will of the 17,410,742 British citizens who voted to leave the EU. It
was the largest number of people to have voted for anything in our proud history.
But the majority of ‘Hon members’ have been determined to overturn the referendum
result, despite repeatedly promising to ‘respect’ it. The electorate is being treated with
undisguised contempt. If they get away with it — which they probably will — Britain
will have ceased to be a proper democracy.
Any chance of securing a dignified exit from the EU was scuppered on Wednesday
night, when MPs voted to take No Deal off the table.
What’s the point of entering any kind of negotiation when your opponents know
there’s no chance of you walking away without a deal, no matter how derisory?
About the same as agreeing to pay a £39 billion bill up front, I guess, without knowing
what you’re going to get in return. If you’re not prepared to walk away empty-handed,
you’re going to get taken to the cleaners.
Curiously, one of the proposers of the No Deal motion was Labour MP Jack Dromey,
a former trades union official and husband of Harriet Harman.
Jack used to be a national officer with the TGWU, now Unite. Somehow I can’t ever
imagine him going into talks with an employer, on his hands and knees,
promising that he’d take whatever pathetic pay rise they decided to offer and
guaranteeing there was no danger that his members would go on strike. He’d
have been lynched as a class traitor.




daveeb 15-03-2019 12:31

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 35986765)
That's the good thing about our democracy - the people get to change their mind if they don't like they way things are going (that is unless it's a non binding referendum).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35986770)
Mark Twain said; “Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”

:D


Agree with both of these statements !

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 12:34

Re: Brexit
 
I'll chuck an obscure one in to show why we're different from them over the channel.

In Old English, our nouns took gender; by Middle English, gender had largely disappeared and by Tudor times had completely disappeared.

This subconscious tendency is part of what's in our heads and the way we go about things. They (Europe) are fixated on the letter of their laws and the complexity of the conjugations with no tendency to simplify (one of the reasons they all learn English as second language).

We were never a good fit for the EU; it should have stayed the EEC.



papa smurf 15-03-2019 12:41

Re: Brexit
 
WATCH: Moment Tory MP Damian Green LOSES IT at Remainer


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...idington-video

i have to say i agree this idiot has ruined every tv interview for months.

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 12:53

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35986794)
WATCH: Moment Tory MP Damian Green LOSES IT at Remainer


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...idington-video

i have to say i agree this idiot has ruined every tv interview for months.

I could think of a few more W*****s, though in Parliament.

Mick 15-03-2019 12:57

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986743)
He said there should be a second referendum if Leave lost.

So bloody what?

Just because Farage is a Brexiteer, he doesn’t speak for me, this is the issue with some of you Remainers, you sweep us up as all the same. Pathetic. :rolleyes:

---------- Post added at 12:57 ---------- Previous post was at 12:54 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986743)
He said there should be a second referendum if Leave lost.

---------- Post added at 09:44 ---------- Previous post was at 09:43 ----------



66 million. They represent everyone.

No they don’t, they represent their “Constituents”, in actual fact. More Constituencies voted to leave.

nomadking 15-03-2019 13:03

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35986743)
He said there should be a second referendum if Leave lost.

---------- Post added at 09:44 ---------- Previous post was at 09:43 ----------



66 million. They represent everyone.

Did he? Or was it just referred to as "unfinished business". There certainly wouldn't have been the nasty and dirty campaign that there has been to "Remain".
From 2016.

Quote:

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

mrmistoffelees 15-03-2019 14:02

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35986804)
Did he? Or was it just referred to as "unfinished business". There certainly wouldn't have been the nasty and dirty campaign that there has been to "Remain".
From 2016.

Do you have any evidence to support this ridiculous assertion?

No, of course you don't.

Don't start trying to say that one side is whiter than white, when there are idiots on both sides of the camp.

denphone 15-03-2019 14:18

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 35986810)
Do you have any evidence to support this ridiculous assertion?

No, of course you don't.

Don't start trying to say that one side is whiter than white, when there are idiots on both sides of the camp.

l could have not have said it better myself.:tu:

papa smurf 15-03-2019 14:22

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees;35986810[B
]Do you have any evidence to support this ridiculous assertion?[/B]

No, of course you don't.

Don't start trying to say that one side is whiter than white, when there are idiots on both sides of the camp.

Have you been living on mars?


And last night the ever popular peoples vote campaign [the losers vote] came to a nearby town

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/n...-empty-2647962


Only about 30 showed up at the Town Hall, nearly half of those were elected officials or those who have attempted to be. Plus a pro-European campaign group from Sunderland

mrmistoffelees 15-03-2019 14:24

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35986822)
Have you been living on mars?

?

There certainly wouldn't have been the nasty and dirty campaign that there has been to "Remain" is what I'm referring too.

Trying to imply that had it gone the other way elements of the remain campaign would not have tried to do anything possible to get a 2nd bite of the pie would be at best be rather naive.

nomadking 15-03-2019 15:17

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 35986810)
Do you have any evidence to support this ridiculous assertion?

No, of course you don't.

Don't start trying to say that one side is whiter than white, when there are idiots on both sides of the camp.

I'm not saying he didn't. I'm looking for proof that he did. The article that refers to him supposedly asking for another referendum only refers in quotes to "unfinished business".

Hugh 15-03-2019 15:55

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35986788)
I'll chuck an obscure one in to show why we're different from them over the channel.

In Old English, our nouns took gender; by Middle English, gender had largely disappeared and by Tudor times had completely disappeared.

This subconscious tendency is part of what's in our heads and the way we go about things. They (Europe) are fixated on the letter of their laws and the complexity of the conjugations with no tendency to simplify (one of the reasons they all learn English as second language).

We were never a good fit for the EU; it should have stayed the EEC.



No, it's not - it's that English is the universally accepted language of business...

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 17:02

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35986834)
No, it's not - it's that English is the universally accepted language of business...

And why would that be? We (and thus the USA) simplified the language.

Anyway, my main point is that were never a good fit for an EU - it's an underlying difference.


Chris 15-03-2019 17:28

Re: Brexit
 
The European mindset is to regulate and harmonise everything. The reasons why are complex, but some of the factors include the European Commission being modelled on the French civil service, which is far more activist than our own (their parliament is also rather weaker, plus they have an executive president) and the fact that most of Europe has been governed by, or invaded by (in some cases both) a nasty dictator within living memory, from which perspective the limiting of the power of national governments seems like quite a sensible idea.

For ourselves, well we had a global empire - again, more or less within living memory - and have bequeathed the world our language, which helps to sustain our understanding of our place in the world. Much about our trade patterns had to change, quickly, in order to fit us into the common market, which is part of the reason why many Brexiteers are so confident that our trade patterns will relatively easily snap back into their natural shape once we’re out.

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 17:35

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986846)
The European mindset is to regulate and harmonise everything. The reasons why are complex, but some of the factors include the European Commission being modelled on the French civil service, which is far more activist than our own (their parliament is also rather weaker, plus they have an executive president) and the fact that most of Europe has been governed by, or invaded by (in some cases both) a nasty dictator within living memory, from which perspective the limiting of the power of national governments seems like quite a sensible idea.

For ourselves, well we had a global empire - again, more or less within living memory - and have bequeathed the world our language, which helps to sustain our understanding of our place in the world. Much about our trade patterns had to change, quickly, in order to fit us into the common market, which is part of the reason why many Brexiteers are so confident that our trade patterns will relatively easily snap back into their natural shape once we’re out.

I agree with much of what you've said.

With regard to the highlighted paragraph, the key words used were "common market". The Brexiteers had no problem with that. As to our trade patters snapping back to a natural shape, well that's up in the air. I think that a new "natural shape" will evolve provided that we are not locked into anything that the Political Statement says - a total shackle on our competitiveness.


peanut 15-03-2019 17:38

Re: Brexit
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7qZhlrbcB8 - David Cameron's leave means leave speech. Worth a watch just to see just how stupid it all is now.

Chris 15-03-2019 17:40

Re: Brexit
 
The common market is what it was called at the time. I’m not making a value judgment, just calling it by its name.

Remember that the withdrawal agreement is only designed to cover the next 2 years and the political statement has no legal force. The most important thing that will be achieved by Teresa May’s Deal, if it can get through Parliament, is to establish that “Brexit means Brexit” - we are leaving the customs union and the single market (which, further to your point, is less about a single selling space and more about a single set of regulations).

Hugh 15-03-2019 17:44

Re: Brexit
 
Snap back to what?

We don’t have the export markets we had in the 50s and 60s (hangovers from the days of Empire), and with modern JIT (Just In Time) production methods, the trade patterns of the world have irrevocably changed from pre-EEC days.

Mr K 15-03-2019 18:53

Re: Brexit
 
The DUP love being the centre to of attention. You can see them revelling in it. Trouble is TM needs a few more votes than they can offer....

Chris 15-03-2019 19:22

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35986862)
The DUP love being the centre to of attention. You can see them revelling in it. Trouble is TM needs a few more votes than they can offer....

MV3 will be close, and I wouldn’t bet against it going through. The ERG seems to be starting to get the message that this is as hard a Brexit as its going to be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47584616

1andrew1 15-03-2019 19:23

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986846)
Much about our trade patterns had to change, quickly, in order to fit us into the common market, which is part of the reason why many Brexiteers are so confident that our trade patterns will relatively easily snap back into their natural shape once we’re out.

What is their natural shape? The gravity model suggests that greater distances weaken the attractiveness of trade and proximity increases it. Therefore, a high proportion of our trade should be with the EU and not with former colonies like Australia and Canada.

jfman 15-03-2019 19:35

Re: Brexit
 
It's easy from here on in. Extend article 50 for a short period of time then wait until the definite definite last minute and tell them we really really mean it this time and they'll give us the easiest trade deal in history. They need us more than we need them. They'll be begging us for a deal.

Mr K 15-03-2019 19:56

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986867)
MV3 will be close, and I wouldn’t bet against it going through. The ERG seems to be starting to get the message that this is as hard a Brexit as its going to be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47584616

Even with the ERG and DUP, backing them, the Govt. lost a vote the other night...

Suspect they'll squeak it through somehow as most MPs will be bored by now. So we'll get a Brexit that will make us worse off and subservient to the EU, perhaps forever, with no voting rights. Party on Brexiteers !

007stuart 15-03-2019 20:21

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35986869)
It's easy from here on in. Extend article 50 for a short period of time then wait until the definite definite last minute and tell them we really really mean it this time and they'll give us the easiest trade deal in history. They need us more than we need them. They'll be begging us for a deal.

I'm with you on this, they really really really really need us.

:D:D:D:D:D:D

richard s 15-03-2019 20:25

Re: Brexit
 
More bribe money for the DUP sounds like an extortion racket more like.

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 20:36

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35986868)
What is their natural shape? The gravity model suggests that greater distances weaken the attractiveness of trade and proximity increases it. Therefore, a high proportion of our trade should be with the EU and not with former colonies like Australia and Canada.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade

A "suggestion" does not validate the Gravity Model. The referenced article has much to say on this especially the countervailing viewpoint.



pip08456 15-03-2019 20:39

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986867)
MV3 will be close, and I wouldn’t bet against it going through. The ERG seems to be starting to get the message that this is as hard a Brexit as its going to be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47584616

I'm inclined to agree.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35986869)
It's easy from here on in. Extend article 50 for a short period of time then wait until the definite definite last minute and tell them we really really mean it this time and they'll give us the easiest trade deal in history. They need us more than we need them. They'll be begging us for a deal.

You can thank the lily livered remain MP's and there endless efforts to thwart Brexit for that.

jfman 15-03-2019 20:52

Re: Brexit
 
It’d have been harder to thwart if it was a single vision.

However it isn’t, it’s a vast range of different views and ideologies from the dog whistle xenophobia, extreme unregulated capitalism, nationalism and even some socialists. Each wants and expects different post-Brexit outcomes.

You’ve even got Liam Fox and David Davis on one side, Mogg, Johnson and Raab on the other. Unless the Conservative party is the only place these divisions exist then leavers have different and often mutually exclusive desires.

The most popular outcome expressed as anything other than a binary choice is to remain. It’s up to leavers to unify their position.

mrmistoffelees 15-03-2019 20:54

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35986881)
I'm inclined to agree.



You can thank the lily livered remain MP's and there endless efforts to thwart Brexit for that.



Ah yes it’s the remainders fault, not the fact that the EU hold the high ground, the fact that we’re the ones leaving but attempting to dictate terms. You were told this is what would happen. you were warned that we would not be in strong position but you chose to dismiss it as ‘project fear’

Give your head a shake, we were never ever going to get a good withdrawal agreement.

Chris 15-03-2019 21:01

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35986882)
It’d have been harder to thwart if it was a single vision.

However it isn’t, it’s a vast range of different views and ideologies from the dog whistle xenophobia, extreme unregulated capitalism, nationalism and even some socialists. Each wants and expects different post-Brexit outcomes.

You’ve even got Liam Fox and David Davis on one side, Mogg, Johnson and Raab on the other. Unless the Conservative party is the only place these divisions exist then leavers have different and often mutually exclusive desires.

The most popular outcome expressed as anything other than a binary choice is to remain. It’s up to leavers to unify their position.

I’ve seen some intellectual acrobatics on this forum but that’s truly special.

Political consensus is always a coalition and a compromise. Leavers may wish to get various things out of Brexit, but they all agreed that Brexit was the way to achieve their aims. They formed a coalition and won a majority. That’s how every other part of our political process works.

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 21:02

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35986882)
It’d have been harder to thwart if it was a single vision.

However it isn’t, it’s a vast range of different views and ideologies from the dog whistle xenophobia, extreme unregulated capitalism, nationalism and even some socialists. Each wants and expects different post-Brexit outcomes.

You’ve even got Liam Fox and David Davis on one side, Mogg, Johnson and Raab on the other. Unless the Conservative party is the only place these divisions exist then leavers have different and often mutually exclusive desires.

The most popular outcome expressed as anything other than a binary choice is to remain. It’s up to leavers to unify their position.

It's also up to Remainers to respect the Referendum result.



1andrew1 15-03-2019 21:02

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35986880)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade

A "suggestion" does not validate the Gravity Model. The referenced article has much to say on this especially the countervailing viewpoint.



It's pretty accepted. I've previously posted links.

mrmistoffelees 15-03-2019 21:06

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35986885)
It's also up to Remainers to respect the Referendum result.




Since when? Leavers are entitled to do as they please so long as they’re not breaking the law

Mr K 15-03-2019 21:09

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35986881)
I'm inclined to agre.

And if this version of 'Brexit' results in something that is worse the Remaining, so be it ? As long as it has the word Brexit attached to it and a 'We won' sticker?
I'm sorry but the ERG are ****wits, and that's being generous.

pip08456 15-03-2019 21:38

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35986888)
And if this version of 'Brexit' results in something that is worse the Remaining, so be it ? As long as it has the word Brexit attached to it and a 'We won' sticker?
I'm sorry but the ERG are ****wits, and that's being generous.

I may agree it will scrape past parliament but that is all.

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 21:43

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35986888)
And if this version of 'Brexit' results in something that is worse the Remaining, so be it ? As long as it has the word Brexit attached to it and a 'We won' sticker?
I'm sorry but the ERG are ****wits, and that's being generous.

I don't accept that. I personally know at least one of the ERG members and he is intelligent and entirely honourable.

The ERG is at one end of the Leave Means Leave spectrum, namely preferring a clean break. Nothing wrong with that as an interpretation of the Leave result, particularly as the UK can cope with the temporary initial chaos and especially with a huge chunk of money to spend on shoring things up.

Btw, I also know TM and she, sadly, fits your description.


pip08456 15-03-2019 21:55

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35986895)
I don't accept that. I personally know at least one of the ERG members and he is intelligent and entirely honourable.

The ERG is at one end of the Leave Means Leave spectrum, namely preferring a clean break. Nothing wrong with that as an interpretation of the Leave result, particularly as the UK can cope with the temporary initial chaos and especially with a huge chunk of money to spend on shoring things up.

Btw, I also know TM and she, sadly, fits your description.


The ERG aren't entirely stupid, they have more grasp of what Article 50 actually sets out and on what basis.

For instance why, considering A50's requirements did the backstop enter negotiations?

Quote:

The Commission, or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy where the agreement envisaged relates exclusively or principally to the common foreign and security policy, shall submit recommendations to the Council, which shall adopt a decision authorising the opening of negotiations and, depending on the subject of the agreement envisaged, nominating the Union negotiator or the head of the Union's negotiating team.
Do we not have and wish to continue a common policy?

Sephiroth 15-03-2019 22:02

Re: Brexit
 
The fact that the pompous EU calls their Foreign Minister the "High Representative" says it all.


ianch99 15-03-2019 22:05

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35986846)
For ourselves, well we had a global empire - again, more or less within living memory - and have bequeathed the world our language, which helps to sustain our understanding of our place in the world. Much about our trade patterns had to change, quickly, in order to fit us into the common market, which is part of the reason why many Brexiteers are so confident that our trade patterns will relatively easily snap back into their natural shape once we’re out.

What is our "understanding of our place in the world" exactly and also, what is the "natural shape" of our trade patterns?

Pierre 15-03-2019 22:26

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35986882)
It’d have been harder to thwart if it was a single vision.

However it isn’t, it’s a vast range of different views and ideologies from the dog whistle xenophobia, extreme unregulated capitalism, nationalism and even some socialists. Each wants and expects different post-Brexit outcomes.

You’ve even got Liam Fox and David Davis on one side, Mogg, Johnson and Raab on the other. Unless the Conservative party is the only place these divisions exist then leavers have different and often mutually exclusive desires.

The most popular outcome expressed as anything other than a binary choice is to remain. It’s up to leavers to unify their position.

I’ve refrained recently but roger me sideways with a trumpet, i’ve Read some deluded BS but you are a black belt in this particular discipline.

Quote:

The most popular outcome expressed as anything other than a binary choice is to remain. It’s up to leavers to unify their position
Can you evidence that? It’s not my interpretation.

1andrew1 15-03-2019 22:29

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35986896)
The ERG aren't entirely stupid, they have more grasp of what Article 50 actually sets out and on what basis.

For instance why, considering A50's requirements did the backstop enter negotiations?



Do we not have and wish to continue a common policy?

How does your subsequent text in a box evidence that the ERG have "more of a grasp of what Article 50 actually sets out and on what basis" and who are you comparing them to?

Hugh 15-03-2019 22:35

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35986899)
The fact that the pompous EU calls their Foreign Minister the "High Representative" says it all.


And there is the U.K. having a High Court and the CoE having "High Church”, all the U.K. High Commissioners, and Paddy Ashdown being the UN High Representative to Bosnia, I think you may be protesting too much...

1andrew1 15-03-2019 22:44

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35986905)
Can you evidence that? It’s not my interpretation.

Poll of polls here says Remain would be ahead
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...ld-you-vote-2/

Pierre 15-03-2019 23:00

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35986908)
Poll of polls here says Remain would be ahead
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...ld-you-vote-2/

Quote:

expressed as anything other than a binary choice
for he idiots among us, including me, what do you mean by that.

jfman 16-03-2019 03:20

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35986905)
I’ve refrained recently but roger me sideways with a trumpet, i’ve Read some deluded BS but you are a black belt in this particular discipline.

Can you evidence that? It’s not my interpretation.

I really don’t see how you can claim it’s deluded when it’s staring you right in the face, and has done for two years.

If there was a single vision if Brexit the Conservative party wouldn’t have wasted the last two years negotiating with itself on television for the EU to laugh at.

Sephiroth 16-03-2019 07:39

Re: Brexit
 
This mythical ‘single vision’ is a mete diversion from the fact that the MPs have treacherously gone their own way, in most cases disrespecting the Referendum result.

Had TM done it differently from the outset, we would definitely be leaving the EU 29-March. She gave these MPs the sustenance for their treachery.


jfman 16-03-2019 07:59

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35986917)
This mythical ‘single vision’ is a mete diversion from the fact that the MPs have treacherously gone their own way, in most cases disrespecting the Referendum result.

Had TM done it differently from the outset, we would definitely be leaving the EU 29-March. She gave these MPs the sustenance for their treachery.


Far from a mere diversion it’s the most pertinent point. May has tried to reconcile the range the best way she can. Like the deal or not, it does address many concerns people have over the EU.

Davis, Fox and Johnson were all in the cabinet so all had opportunities to forge the negotiations as they saw fit. If the party could have found a common position they could have threatened her with a (party) vote of no confidence.

To say May is treacherous, or hasn’t been trying to bring together a range of leave positions, is ignoring the self evident truth of the situation. Nobody else has come up with a credible alternative for MPs to rally round.

Angua 16-03-2019 08:03

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35986919)
Far from a mere diversion it’s the most pertinent point. May has tried to reconcile the range the best way she can. Like the deal or not, it does address many concerns people have over the EU.

Davis, Fox and Johnson were all in the cabinet so all had opportunities to forge the negotiations as they saw fit. If the party could have found a common position they could have threatened her with a (party) vote of no confidence.

To say May is treacherous, or hasn’t been trying to bring together a range of leave positions, is ignoring the self evident truth of the situation. Nobody else has come up with a credible alternative for MPs to rally round.

Would throw in the anti GFA DUP having a confidence & supply arrangement and May was always on a hiding to nothing.

Her red lines at the start of the negotiations have caused problems as well.

jfman 16-03-2019 08:16

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35986920)
Would throw in the anti GFA DUP having a confidence & supply arrangement and May was always on a hiding to nothing.

Her red lines at the start of the negotiations have caused problems as well.

Well yes, after the disastrous 2017 election they got a seat at the table. I did have them in mind further back when I referred to nationalists (UK variety).

Had May won decisively in 2017 my guess is that we’d be looking at a harder Brexit for Great Britain. I’d guess Northern Ireland would have maintained special status and alignment with, but outside of, the EU. I doubt many would have genuinely cared - the people in the North voted to remain and even those that voted to leave know that’d give them economic advantage being both inside the UK politically and with single market access economically. Unfortunately the few who cared were key to winning votes in the HoC.

1andrew1 16-03-2019 11:28

Re: Brexit
 
The Magic Money Tree is blooming again!
Quote:

Brexit delay could cost millions in extra payments to ferry firms
Any delay to the UK leaving the EU could cost the government tens of millions in extra payments to keep its no-deal ferry contracts in place.
The extra costs will be a fresh political blow to the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, after the collapse of one contract with an operator that had no ferries and a lawsuit by Eurotunnel that was settled out of court at a cost of £33m.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...chris-grayling

OLD BOY 16-03-2019 12:19

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35986919)
Far from a mere diversion it’s the most pertinent point. May has tried to reconcile the range the best way she can. Like the deal or not, it does address many concerns people have over the EU.

Davis, Fox and Johnson were all in the cabinet so all had opportunities to forge the negotiations as they saw fit. If the party could have found a common position they could have threatened her with a (party) vote of no confidence.

To say May is treacherous, or hasn’t been trying to bring together a range of leave positions, is ignoring the self evident truth of the situation. Nobody else has come up with a credible alternative for MPs to rally round.

Good post, jfman. On those points, we can agree. Is this a record?? :)

Sephiroth 16-03-2019 12:25

Re: Brexit
 
I never said May had been treacherous. It was the MPs.

OLD BOY 16-03-2019 12:31

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35986920)
Would throw in the anti GFA DUP having a confidence & supply arrangement and May was always on a hiding to nothing.

Her red lines at the start of the negotiations have caused problems as well.

The red lines were put in place for a reason. They are what the leavers wanted and reflected the referendum result.

It was made very clear in the campaign, for example, that leaving would ensure we could make all our own laws and forge our own trade deals. Ruling out the belonging to the customs union achieves that. If we did not insist on those red lines, we would not be out of the EU and we would not be able to influence new EU legislation. Surely, that would be a backward step.

Someone should point that out to Corbyn, who seems to be totally confused and directionless on this issue.

---------- Post added at 12:31 ---------- Previous post was at 12:28 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35986945)
The Magic Money Tree is blooming again!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...chris-grayling

The indecision of the House of Commons has a real cost to it, and if Brexit is delayed by another year or two, that cost will become considerable.

MPs need to get their acts together so we can leave with the minimum of further delay.

Hugh 16-03-2019 12:36

Re: Brexit
 
The ‘indecision’ was caused by lack of consultation - if there had been more involvement, there would have been a consensus reached, rather than a fait accompli presented to the House.

jfman 16-03-2019 12:39

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35986952)
Good post, jfman. On those points, we can agree. Is this a record?? :)

I need to go and lie down!

---------- Post added at 12:39 ---------- Previous post was at 12:37 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35986958)
The ‘indecision’ was caused by lack of consultation - if there had been more involvement, there would have been a consensus reached, rather than a fait accompli presented to the House.

Indeed.

All the while valuable time has been lost for businesses to prepare. If we really wanted to go down the no-deal route we should have decided as quickly as possible to give businesses a lead in.

OLD BOY 16-03-2019 13:13

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35986958)
The ‘indecision’ was caused by lack of consultation - if there had been more involvement, there would have been a consensus reached, rather than a fait accompli presented to the House.

You reckon? I think it would have been much better if the negotiations had been conducted in private, and then the results voted upon.

It's the open nature of the negotiations that has added fuel to the flames.

mrmistoffelees 16-03-2019 13:47

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35986954)
I never said May had been treacherous. It was the MPs.


Yet again you fail to grasp the very simple premise that MP’s are not delegates

OLD BOY 16-03-2019 14:02

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 35986972)
Yet again you fail to grasp the very simple premise that MP’s are not delegates

Having told the electorate that their referendum decision would be granted, MPs have a duty to implement it in the best way possible and which is in accordance with that vote. We all accept that MPs have a duty to do what they figure is best for the country and their constituents (which I think is your point) but a clear undertaking that the result of the referendum would be honoured cannot be ignored.

Angua 16-03-2019 14:07

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35986974)
Having told the electorate that their referendum decision would be granted, MPs have a duty to implement it in the best way possible and which is in accordance with that vote. We all accept that MPs have a duty to do what they figure is best for the country and their constituents (which I think is your point) but a clear undertaking that the result of the referendum would be honoured cannot be ignored.

No, MPs have a duty to represent their constituents best interests. Which may well include a belief that Brexit has no economic benefit for their constituency, despite how their electorate voted in the referendum.

So you have Leave MPs representing constituencies that voted Remain. No one seems to hang them out to dry.

Chris 16-03-2019 14:10

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 35986972)
Yet again you fail to grasp the very simple premise that MP’s are not delegates

This is a straw man argument.

Nobody is contradicting the Burkean view of what an MP’s role and responsibilities should be. What many of us have done, repeatedly, is to point out that our MPs used the judgment they owe us to call a referendum and to promise to implement the result.

To argue that their failure to do so is in fact evidence of high principle at work is laughable.

Sephiroth 16-03-2019 14:14

Re: Brexit
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 35986972)
Yet again you fail to grasp the very simple premise that MP’s are not delegates

Oh please. Delegates/representatives - never crossed my mind. The treachery is the simple matter of disrespecting and trying to thwart the Referendum result.


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