Cable Forum - Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36117300)

BREAKING: Russia would use nuclear weapons only when faced with 'existential threat', Kremlin says. Meanwhile, Ukraine President Zelenskyy to hold video conference with NATO summit this Thursday. - AFP News Agency.

Sounds good, but their credibility for telling the truth was lost a long time ago.

---------- Post added at 21:32 ---------- Previous post was at 21:30 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36117302)

‘existential threat’ to Russia or Putin?

Good point. He's going on 70 and said to be suffering from cancer, so he has nothing to lose if this is true.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

U.S strongly condemns Russia’s Alexei Navalny “sham trial” in which he has been jailed in a maximum security jail for a further 9 years for apparent fraud.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36117306)

Sounds good, but their credibility for telling the truth was lost a long time ago.

---------- Post added at 21:32 ---------- Previous post was at 21:30 ----------

Good point. He's going on 70 and said to be suffering from cancer, so he has nothing to lose if this is true.

On the other hand, those around him, who would have to actually launch the things, have lives and families to lose. Unless they also perceived an existential threat I very much doubt they would carry out a launch order.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36117312)

Latest UK Intel just dropped:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1647987199

They've already started mass deportations

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Not that I’m in anyway suspicious of our media,…….I mean why would I be! Given recent years. Regardless of the supposed kicking Russia are getting. Slowed? Definitely. Stopped no. Russia are in trouble but they are still in a position to take Kiev and all the southern Black Sea territories. If it comes to a negotiation (which it surely has too) they will have a strong hand.

What this conflict has shown is that as a conventional war machine, Russia could not take on NATO. That’s good-ish.

Putin’s only leverage is nuclear, that’s still a lot of leverage.

I think Russia will take Kiev, and see what happens from there.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36117316)

I’m curious where you’re getting your information from. If anything, our major news outlets are almost as guilty of fetishising Russian military might as you are here. Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill everywhere. There is no evidence anywhere that Russia has amassed sufficient combat or logistics to assault Kyiv or is in the process of doing so.

Last month the world was guilty of assuming the Russians would win in days. Assuming they’re going to win in weeks is precisely the same error, based on the same flawed assumptions about Russia’s military capabilities.

---------- Post added at 08:24 ---------- Previous post was at 08:16 ----------

For those interested, here’s some thoughts from St Andrews university’s professor of Strategic Studies, Phillips O’Brien. I’ve been following him and several like him for a couple of weeks now; none of them strike me as contrarian, and in fact they are a refreshing break from what is a very obvious ‘it’s only a matter of time’ editorial narrative that pervades our news media.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/...229403650?s=21

Quote:

A very quick thread on those talking about Russia settling in for a long war and mobilising it’s resources for an extended campaign. Could they do it: possibly, but it would be a very different war with major societal implications.

(Click the link for the full piece)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Thanks for the link - very interesting.

I thought this summed up his thoughts in this conflict

Quote:

So my view of war is that its about the control of communications (movement) and requires highly professional, motivated and high morale personnel (actually these are symbiotic qualities). It is about the operation of complex systems.

What we have seen so far in Ukraine is a Russian inability to operate the systems they would need to succeed and the Ukrainians able to operate the systems they need to stop them--often by disrupting Russian communications.

The inability of the Russians to gain control of the air, was such a fundamental failing of modern complex systems warfare, that it also instantly called into question their overall war fighting ability in my analysis.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36117329)

[/COLOR]For those interested, here’s some thoughts from St Andrews university’s professor of Strategic Studies, Phillips O’Brien. I’ve been following him and several like him for a couple of weeks now; none of them strike me as contrarian, and in fact they are a refreshing break from what is a very obvious ‘it’s only a matter of time’ editorial narrative that pervades our news media.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/...229403650?s=21

(Click the link for the full piece)

Yes, I've been following him for a while too. He and his peers seem to always be a few days ahead of the UK national media who do not have the knowledge to make as much sense out of events as they do.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Isn't "UK national media" combined with "make (as) much sense out of events" some kind of oxymoron type thing?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

NATO believes Russia has lost around 40,000 soldiers in Ukraine, either killed/wounded/PoW or otherwise missing.

The Wall Street Journal reports this is based on intelligence that puts the death toll somewhere between 7 and 15k, and statistical modelling to infer the total loss of force strength based on that figure.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...inMDHzdeRZvAeD

I wonder how aware of this Putin is. Are the yes-men still telling him only what he wants to hear or is he actually out of his tiny little gourd?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36117341)

Isn't "UK national media" combined with "make (as) much sense out of events" some kind of oxymoron type thing?

I suspect the media's expertise in war in Europe has been pared back as it's not been seen as relevant and they've need to control costs tightly.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36117316)

The tide could be turning.

Quote:

UPDATE: Russian forces are trying to go around the Mykolaiv in an offensive toward the port city of Odesa: UK Defense Intel

Ukraine has repeatedly repulsed Russian forces advancing on Mykolaiv & is now "able and willing" to take back territory seized by Russia, U.S. officials said.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/...36079985790980

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36117347)

I suspect the media's expertise in war in Europe has been pared back as it's not been seen as relevant and they've need to control costs tightly.

I suspect that, like a lot of industries, experienced staff (particularly regarding warfare) in journalism have now either retired, been let go or decided to move on because they don't care for the sloppy way that things are done now (or for a pay cut).

Inexperienced (cheaper) younger staff are often used across industries these days. It's labelled as being more efficient, but you get what you pay for and it shows. Our local newspaper is full of spelling mistakes, grammatical errors and, barely researched, fluff articles.