Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don't forget that are ALL getting older every day, and this virus, or its descendants, will still be around, probably forever.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's some good data right there on effectiveness of vaccines. It looks like the hospitalisation rate for the most vulnerable unvaccinated group aged (80+ years) is roughly 112.9 per 100,000.

The ONS estimates the total population of England aged 80+ is 2,855,599
so if vaccinations were not present, that would be 3,224 hospitalisations between weeks 32 and 25. Instead, there were 1,146.

Of course, if we went the other way and (theoretically) vaccinated everyone, the hospitalisation rate of 37.4 per 100,000 would give you 1,068.

Vaccines work - they look to have prevented 2,078 hospitalisations over that period with a further 78 possible if we got to 100% vaccination. Nice!

(this report is a bit of a fudge as it uses the 'within 28 days of a positive specimen' measure and the general hospitalisation rate of 80+ is very high anyway so it may be the case that the vaccine is more protective than my estimates show as those protected may not present at hospital for a COVID related reason)

Re: Coronavirus
 

So police checks could be linked to some form of vaccination data base which would probably, along with large fines, encourage the lockdown compliance of those who wish to remain unvaccinated.

:eeek: If our Government tried any such lockdown there would be mass demonstrations and civil disobedience.

Re: Coronavirus
 

and loads of fines to put towards the bills hahahaha

Re: Coronavirus
 

Frightening.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...2&d=1637080464
Attachment 29382

Re: Coronavirus
 

how quickly you turn against your fellow man.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The most surprising thing to me about that is that the older groups are more likely to support it.


Given how close 65+ would be to those who actually fought in the wars, it's surprising that they would support that kind of measure.


Also, that pretty much everyone in that age group doesn't work and actually could afford to stay at home without losing anything other than things they do for enjoyment, whereas the younger age groups are typically also not just working, but also probably more likely to do jobs they can't do from home. I would expect most polls on restrictions would have less support in the younger age groups than the older ones, which are also the groups less at risk... and actually, I do think it's fair to expect some people would still feel safer staying in, but that now people need to be able to make the choice, not having that forced on them, especially if they have been vaccinated.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Seems my recent medicine induced brain haze has made me miss this as well.... another country is finding a way to 'encourage' its citizens to get vaccinated.https://news.sky.com/story/singapore...hoice-12464966

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

No, I have been consistent in my opinion that they endanger others. Plus the hahaha means it is a light hearted statement not really to be taken seriously

---------- Post added at 16:53 ---------- Previous post was at 16:51 ----------

only those who have refused the jab needs to worry

@NNFC The 65+ also lived nearer a time when there was a lot more respect and selflessness in society in general where they would want to look after their neighbours

Re: Coronavirus
 

They're the most likely age group to be suffer most from catching Covid though so I'm not surprised.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well, considering it includes everyone over the retirement age it's a pretty safe assumption that only a minority do work... which is what I actually said ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

point being?

---------- Post added at 17:08 ---------- Previous post was at 17:05 ----------

it is concerning, but I don't give any "YouGov" survey any real credibility.

But on the wider point of how you can use fear to control the population. Yes, it still works.

Future despots take note.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not really, its over four months old and written before we even lifted restrictions.

I stopped reading after this ;

Re: Coronavirus
 

It means the same though.


Consider the two statements (not sure if this figure is true or not but let's just assume it is):


"95% of over 65s are retired and no longer work"
"5% of over 65s have a job"


It's telling the same thing but from the opposite perspectives.


Saying most over 65s don't work is saying the same thing as saying very few do.


And yes, some of them will be retiring at 67/8 and some may even keep on with the odd bit of part time work or voluntary work but it's not going to be far off the actual situation to suggest they do - or that they don't have anything other than leisure activities such as their sport/relaxation/music groups or whatever they do curtailed by a lockdown, when contrasted by say for example bar staff most of whom are probably no older than 30 or so, who may have hours cut, furlough, or even redundancy. Yes there will be exceptions but it's not really unconscious bias to suggest it...

Re: Coronavirus
 

So the missus has been offered another venue and date for her booster. On the other side of city, with no parking, no bus access, in the middle of a sprawling rat's nest of a housing estate.

And I have been offered mine at the same place 3 days later!

Re: Coronavirus
 

how did you get the offer?

I did mine online and got to choose where. Few days later I got a text offering one in the next town. Might be worth seeing if you can choose

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...id-19-vaccine/

Re: Coronavirus
 

In Wales we have to wait for a letter.

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I am quite sure the point made about vaccine escape in a (mostly) vaccinated population is as valid today as it was 4 months ago. You stopped reading it because it said what you did not want to hear. An interesting research technique :)

Re: Coronavirus
 

The article is wrong on just about everything.

wrong

wrong

Wrong - well no more than any other year.

Wrong - hospitalisation and deaths did not rise with infections they stayed fairly static

wrong

never happened

I read it all, and it was all bollocks.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Correct.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The resident CF virologists have spoken! What more is there to be said? Who needs experts anyway

Re: Coronavirus
 

This year's expert . Is next century s fool. Just look at medical practices from hundred years ago :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

All I have done is the read four month old article, measured it against what actually happened and judged it as bollocks. I don’t need to be virologist to do that.

You are of course free to point out all the accurate forecasts the article got right.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Nope I stopped becasue its complete nonsense, much like your post.

Re: Coronavirus
 

N.i is doing really well following advise :confused:

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if English is your first language, please do expand on that.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Disagree. Not liking something does not make it wrong. If you can actually read what I posted, it referred to the fear of vaccine escape from a vaccinated population. I was replying to spiderplant 's post where he said:

But hey, let's not let what I actually posted get in the way of a good rant, eh?

---------- Post added at 22:55 ---------- Previous post was at 22:46 ----------

Dr Pierre I presume?

Here's another interesting article on the subject of vaccine escape since this is your specialist area. After all, it was vaccine escape that I was discussing, nothing else but I guess you knew that :)

Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model

I hope you agree that this scenario is especially relevant for us today in country? I realise your papers are not yet published but if you could share any draft copies, we would all be grateful.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As I clearly stated, and I know it was a very feeble attempt at sarcasm from you, I am not a Dr so don’t address me as such.

In regards to your original bollocks article and the one you post here. Especially regarding your first bollocks article that was wrong about everything. Why would this subsequent post offer anything else of interest? A new variant may well appear at some point but there isn’t one yet after 4 months and if one appeared one, two, three or even four months from now, could you trace it back to July 19th?

I don’t have any papers published, great sarcasm attempt again btw, but the ones you have cited aren’t great either.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The irony.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=8162

Content to dish out sarcastic insults but unable to take them in return.

We all know you have no papers published but thanks for the clarification. As you tell us often enough you don’t care about the subject matter so it’s impossible to imagine you’d devote such time typing away at a keyboard about it. Beyond your extensive and insightful engagement with this thread of course!

In response to your post however I will acknowledge your familiarity with being wrong about everything. So ianch99 should give your post some weight on that basis.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Makes two of us then, by the looks of it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Going back to the paper Paul amongst others have said was nonsense.


It is only looking at it with the benefit of hindsight that we can of course reach this conclusion.


By this stage we knew similar to what we do now. The virus was still out there, still circulating at higher levels, and we'd still been vaccinating as many people as we could.



We knew the vaccines would probably hold out against hospitalisations but there wasn't enough data to know this for sure with Delta, that was presumably the main point of the 3 week delay, but the intention to open up provided nothing went horribly wrong was probably always there once Hancock was replaced.

It was a calculated risk but let's not forget the timing also coincided with school closures which would in itself have reduced spread of the virus in an environment where not only most people weren't vaccinated (and still aren't) but also spent a long time together in the same room. It's still likely the case if a kid turns up to school with covid that most of the class will get it, those who haven't already, that is (and this is where it will end). The fact spread amongst adults with everything open didn't then kick off at all implies that the vaccines are holding it enough, and that the measures may not have been as effective as you think.



It is true that a virus with a more transmissible advantage selectively will out compete and if something like Beta developed the transmissibility of Delta with the vaccine escape as well, then you would be looking at trouble, but this doesn't seem to be showing any signs of happening, in fact it's probably slowing down a bit on that since we had Alpha come up about this time last year and then in the spring we had Delta and not really much since (this Delta plus just seems to be a more transmissible version of Delta), and we're not actually seeing other variants able to out compete them. Again this is a fact we didn't know then, didn't know that is how it would turn out, and the risks mentioned were possible.


You can't look back at predictions really with the benefit of hindsight - 3 weeks to protect the NHS.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don't forget that last Christmas he had dinner guests who, he assured us, were all completely safe and posed no threat presumably due to his deep insights into the virus and how it's propogated. I suspect he's too modest to reveal where these revelations come from, and the complexity of the information is probably beyond our basic understanding.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Got it in one Dave.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Just wondering if you even read my post? I was specifically referring to the possibility of vaccine escape in a highly infected, mostly vaccinated population. This is still a concern today ..

---------- Post added at 14:12 ---------- Previous post was at 14:04 ----------

So if this is beyond even your basic understanding, as you put it, I am surprised you can completely dismiss a paper published in Nature as "bollocks" and have any credibility.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’m quite sure the credibility boat sailed sometime between this post

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...&postcount=118

And now.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You need to re-read what Dave said and what I said. I didn't say it was beyond "my" basic understanding.

If anything point proven.

---------- Post added at 15:41 ---------- Previous post was at 15:40 ----------

At least I have a boat.

Re: Coronavirus
 

credibility

odd word to use in a 550 page thread full of guesswork and piss poor planning :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

It will be anyway. But whilst it doesn't exist we need not concern ourselves with it.


Considering for this to happen, you would need vaccine escape through a new variant which can evade the vaccine immunity, and this would also likely evade the immunity from infection with other variants, it would also need the transmissibility advantage over delta, so it would need to be basically delta with immunity escape. We did of course have a variant which could evade previous infection and immunity from vaccines but it lost out and doesn't really circulate any more.



The vaccines worked against the original virus, they worked against Alpha, they work slightly less against Delta but still work, perhaps not as much against Beta, but 2 doses of either AZ or Pfizer is enough to keep most people out of hospital even if they do get the virus.


A new variant could still throw that out the window but could at any time. If everyone was either vaccinated or had it, if a new variant evolved here or anywhere, then if it could defeat that then everyone would go back to being vulnerable again. But that hasn't happened yet, wasn't on the cards as any more than a hypothetical risk then as much as now, and stands as much chance of coming in from outside the country via travel as it does starting up here to begin with.

Re: Coronavirus
 

where?

Oh, I don't know, some of it is interesting, some of it is sport.

Re: Coronavirus
 

So basically it needs to be able to do to Delta what Delta did to Alpha?

It doesn’t strike me as particularly unconcerning, given infinite time and billions of opportunities against weakening efficacy (all vaccines).

Re: Coronavirus
 

I remember some egg head saying it would have to evolve into something completely new like covid 22 or something for it to be able to completely evade the vaccines, was he wrong :shrug:

Re: Coronavirus
 

No, he wasn’t. Covid vaccines target the spike protein, which while it can mutate, has a finite number of forms it can take, and they all overlap to a greater or lesser degree. As far as we presently know, any vaccine will have a certain level of effectiveness against any variation of that spike protein. Mind you, in certain cases that effectiveness could be quite low, so I don’t know how useful an observation that is.

Re: Coronavirus
 

sort of.


But Delta is fundamentally a more transmissible Alpha, which is only concerning to a certain extent - if the disease is the same, but just spreads quicker/easier, then that just means if you need to slow it down you need to do more.


There's slight immunity escape too but what you'd probably need is for something like Delta and Beta to fuse which would give the transmissibility and vaccine escape. But given that this would be a logical next stage in the virus, there has to be some reason why it hasn't done this yet (and why in these cases Beta has just lost out) - probably because there's only so many big mutations the spike proteins can take before they don't actually do their job (don't forget this is how the virus enters its code into cells) and in these cases the choice between transmissibility and other issues seems to always go with transmissibility.


It seems possible we won't see it - we probably would have by now. Everything just seems to be getting more transmissible and less asymptomatic but milder symptoms more like a cold, which could well be how the coronaviruses which caused colds ended up that way.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Some great explanations of virus evolution here, in particular that mutations have no intelligence and are random. If one thing as come out of all this, it's we all know a lot more about virology and genetics than we did a couple of years ago.

The immune response to the vaccines (or indeed infection) work in two ways. Antibodies to the part of the spike that binds the cells being infected will block that binding (neutralising antibodies) Antibodies that bind anywhere else on the spike protein 'tag' the virus for destruction but don't stop it infecting cells. Neutralising antibodies are definitely our friends here as they both block infections but also do this immune system tagging.

As nffc said, if the binding site of the spike changes enough to evade antibodies, the hope is that these will not be effective virus. The delta variant was fun as neutralising antibodies don't bind as well but the spike protein binds better to the cells it wants to infect. Luckily both of these effects were small enough that it was a complete disaster.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Here's another useless paper in the Lancet talking about the risk of vaccine escape:

SARS-CoV-2 incidence and vaccine escape

Re: Coronavirus
 

That’s a good article, it doesn’t contain incorrect forecasts and sensationalist hyperbole.

I knew you’d come through in the end.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Germany and Poland are heading the wrong way.

Re: Coronavirus
 

On a lighter note, Americans get more stupid every day.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucele...d-19-vaccines/

Re: Coronavirus
 

Mental institution material.:rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

White House material :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Austria going into full lockdown and mandated vaccine for all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59343650

Re: Coronavirus
 

The fourth glorious Reich begins.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes, because trying to stop rampant rising infections is exactly the same as invading other countries and genocide.

You really need to get out more, and wean yourself of the Express...

Re: Coronavirus
 

Ah the same attitude that allowed the 3rd Reich to grow.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Doesn't seem like so long ago that we had people looking at the numbers here and Europe and wondering what they were doing right and we weren't.


Obviously it remains to be seen whether this will still be the case, but the numbers in England seem to be held under control and have for a while, this is despite very few restrictions at all, and according to the various data the cases are still very much in school kids (though the latest report last night showed more that it was primary kids not secondary who were getting it now - possibly as more secondary kids have either had it or had a jab) and that the figures in adults are still relatively low. Assuming this trend continues (and we would have presumably seen the effect before half term) it will probably eventually burn itself out.



Yet Austria are clearly having issues with hospitalisations as I seem to recall their people mentioning it as a metric in the unvaccinated lockdown, which doesn't appear to have made much difference, not that they have really given it chance to. Germany are also struggling as are other countries such as Belgium which are now recording relative case loads much higher than the UK and which are also growing in a concerning fashion as opposed to fluctuating around going up and down a bit like the UK's figures are.


Unless they have some serious issues with the vaccines simply not working, or a variant we don't know about yet, as opposed to there simply being a large number of unvaccinated people in these places, it would be interesting to see what has gone wrong over there.

Re: Coronavirus
 

forcing you to undergo a medical procedure mandated by the state against your will, removing your own bodily autonomy.

Mengele would be proud

---------- Post added at 12:48 ---------- Previous post was at 12:45 ----------

They said it could never happen again nor be allowed to happen again.

What COVID has shown us is it could easily happen again. Scare the population, tell them that the Unvaccinated are the cause of their problems.

The population will fall into line quite nicely.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's a sensible precaution.


Given that they are now getting a Delta spike and have a lot of unvaccinated it's got potential to take off more than anything before.


So I suppose people do have a choice really. They can get vaccinated, people can get their lockdowns lifted, things go back to normal, or they don't, they stay in lockdown, and more people catch covid and die, because it's unlikely even a lockdown will hold it with this variant.



It's like driving a car without a seatbelt on, you can do it but if you hit something you'll probably end up in hospital.



This doesn't need fear factor or analogies drawn to despots, it is common sense, if you are not vaccinated, you are at a much higher risk of getting covid, getting into hospital, and dying, than if you are not. The UK has a much higher vaccination record than the countries that are having issues, with the same virus, and has much less severe issues.



If people haven't seen the sense in doing it by now and people are still dying of covid what choice do they have? The only other one is letting them die.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's the issue with mandated vaccinations though isn't it, as they don't.

Don't mis-understand me, I think everybody at risk of serious illness where a vaccine will be of benefit to them should get it.

I'm just against the state mandating it, or putting you under house arrest if you haven't had it, or asking to see your "papers" as you conduct your own business.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Link

That's not to go down too well.

Re: Coronavirus
 

we should brace ourselves for the influx of Austrian refuges fleeing tyranny.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

:tu:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Are Austrians guilty of something?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Stupidity maybe? :shrug:

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think it's a general EU thing ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

"You vil show us your papers"

Re: Coronavirus
 

In your post you said the current actions of the Austrian govt could not be compared to Mengele as he only experimented on “innocent people”.

So if that is the only differentiater between Mengele and the current Austrian government actions that would imply they were guilty of something.

Just trying make sense of your post.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Whatever, explained it, you can’t see it, we’ll leave it. The original point stands. State mandated vaccination, especially for a virus as non-lethal as this one is ridiculous and a overreach of state powers by any standard.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Being vaccinated doesnt mean you wont die, nor does it mean you cannot catch it, and not being vaccinated doesnt mean you will catch it, or that you'll die if you do.

Vaccination triggers your immune system, which means you have a better chance of not catching it, and if you do, it will probably be less serious than otherwise. Its not magic, but it does have potential serious side effects, even if rare.

There is a vast difference between volunteering to take something, and being forced to take it, a very slippery slope to go down. Civil wars have been triggered by less.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The mortality rate of covid absolutely does not justify vaccination mandates or passports and the justification it gets from some people worries me how far is too far to satisfy your fear?. When we first went into lockdown pretty much everyone followed it, when masks were expected the public agreed the problem is we all went along because we were told it was short term. The great thing about covid for some is that it will never end at this point it can be spun up over and over again and even the vaccine isn't the answer as you can still get covid, can still die from it and you can still infect others and when a new variant comes along it's useless.

People are constantly told to follow the science even though the consensus on covid is far from unanimous or even agreed and the science has changed so it's no wonder an increasing number of people are refusing to participate. It's personal choice if you want the vaccine and the boosters it's a personal choice same as if you decide you've had enough of it all and don't want anymore.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Vaccination mandates? Only where the vulnerable are the ones at risk.If you want to work in a care home it just seems a sensible step that you must be vaccinated.
But then I've been living with vaccinations all my life having been born in Nigeria where my father as a Medic in the Colonial Service had to vaccinate patients at the bush surgeries he was required to hold.No one said no back in the 50s to vaccinations. I remember the smallpox scare when I was 6 or so in London.No one said no then.Just yes please.

Anyway haven't we been accepting for years that if you travelled abroad to countries that insisted visitors be vaccinated you got vaccinated?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Quite agree with you Maggy.

People who are happy to smoke, drink alcohol or eat processed foods should realise that refusing a vaccination which could save lives is really a tad inconsistent.

My contribution for to-day is a link to a ZOE press release entitled Don't cancel Christmas yet which has some up-to-date information using figures their study has collected.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/dont-...-christmas-yet

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

but not in cases of covid.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

For now probably lockdown, but if vaccines become mandatory expect the schyt
to connect with the fan.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...accine-mandate

Re: Coronavirus
 

Gosh that looks like it could get quite nasty . . . then heavens here in the UK our biggest issues are racist cricketers and a lack of au pairs ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's all well and good mandating vaccines in the healthcare industry but there is a chronic staff shortage and it was already at and over the 100K mark, homes are closing across the UK because they do not have the staffing to keep them open, homes around our area are having to keep the capacity itself much lower than the home itself can take because there is not enough staff, agency staff places are stretched and they can no longer plug the holes in staffing in various locations, end result, hospital beds are stuck, filled with the elderly who are unable to moved in to a care home.

Vaccine mandates in the healthcare industry are a counter productive measure because noone likes to be dictated to or told they have to do something against their will. In Scotland and Wales, where mandates are not in place the uptake on vaccination has been higher with those hesitant to be vaccinated, through encouragement and education of the vaccine. Our government has took the lazy option for England and it's going to take it's toll over time.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Email received... scam of course

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well this certainly makes it unlikely to be real.
I'm confused though, what's the actual scam here ? The links maybe ?

Re: Coronavirus
 

The links were blocked by VM mail, so I suspect it was.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yep, the links then, to a dodgy site.

Re: Coronavirus
 

New restrictions (in Europe) dont seem to be going down as well this time around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59363256

Opened fire ? Seriously ?

Peoples patience with restrictions and lockdowns seems to have worn away.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Nothing to see here, just a warning among antivaxxers to wear boots to the protests because the city of Vienna "plans to vaccinate them through manhole covers".

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1637489716

Sounds a bit painful, being injected through the manhole…

(Best bit was "Kein Witz!! - "No Joke!!)

Re: Coronavirus
 

As if we didn't need another reason to find antivaxxers ludicrous, they come up with that.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Please stop counting everyone with questions and concerns as ludicrous as with everything there is a lunatic tiny minority that is absolutely not indicative of all those not wanting the vaccine.

Re: Coronavirus
 

People who are concerned about the safety etc aren't the issue, these concerns need to be addressed by the people who know the vaccines and the process they have gone through properly, they are genuine concerns and actually may well turn out to be correct - remember Thalidomide for example, no-one thought that would cause birth defects (but that was ultimately a production issue not removing the isomer) until we had a whole load of babies being born missing arms etc etc.



It's the people who are going around saying it's 5G or that the government are going to secretly vaccinate protesters through manhole covers, things which are basically not going to be true.

Re: Coronavirus
 

At 14:02 today, the phone rang, and the caller said I had missed my booster appointment yesterday (24th).

I told her that on the 17th I did an online request for a reschedule for the missus and I, to be together. She said that all the online stuff takes over a week to process.

I explained the missus' mobility problems, that we could only get to the Tesco across the road, and would take any cancellation at any time of day.

She tried to give just me a slot on December 1st, as she had a single cancellation then, and another today, but there was no way one of us could make it, as it was for 14:20 in 15 minutes. I just told her to book the missus' jab for 1st December and I would get the one today.

I got to the Tesco centre at 14:22, and their computer system updated in front of us, to book me in.

The mandatory 15-minute wait after the Pfizer jab was annoying....

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yeah I asked how many had had an allergic reaction on just the 3rd jab after not on the other 2 hahaha no answer given

Re: Coronavirus
 

I can understand it for those who didnt have Pfizer previously, but Ive had it for all three, so just ridiculous. I left after a few minutes.

Re: Coronavirus