Re: Brexit
 

If we leave with "No Deal" there is no trade agreement. We revert to trading on WTO terms.

We can begin to broker a trade agreement with the EU at that point.

Re: Brexit
 

Worth also mentioning this is only if we leave with No Deal on the 29/3, which seems very unlikely atm. (bit of an over complicated article, all they need say is that your passport must be valid for 6 month and not older than 10 years)

For anyone in any doubt there is a Govt. passport checker at:- https://www.gov.uk/guidance/passport...e-after-brexit

I'll be leaving on a Jet plane on 28/3, so I'll be Remaining in the EU whatever :) Question is, whether I'll come back.....

Re: Brexit
 

Not to worry, if we leave with no deal they'll chuck you out.

Re: Brexit
 

Thanks for the clarification - I should have mentioned that point.

I’m acting on the side of caution, as I think it’s likely there will be a no-deal, as the ERG/DUP’s views on the backstop differ drastically from the EU’s, so I am avoiding the rush (if no-deal goes thru), so I applied online today and sent my passport by Special Delivery to the Passport Office - when we did my wife’s passport last year, it was back within a week.

Worst case scenario (after a no-deal Brexit) is I lose 5 months of passport duration - no biggie...

Re: Brexit
 

Tbh I don't see how no deal would happen. The Govt don't want it (despite what they may say), the EU don't want it and a majority in Parliament won't allow it. I suspect another delay/fudge and resulting damage to our economy. Wouldn't surprise if the old girl tries to avoid next week's vote again.

Re: Brexit
 

They are losing the plot now:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ock-complaints

Looking like Parliament is going to take control next week ..

Re: Brexit
 

Does that mean that the fact that us English don't get a say on English-only matters is against the ECHR. Doesn't that also apply to any Customs Union of whatever sort? The fact that any EU legislation can only be overturned by leaving the EU completely, also against the ECHR?

Re: Brexit
 

What English-only matters?

Re: Brexit
 

Health, Education. Potentially run by a non-English Labour/SNP government.


An English Parliament, with at least the same powers as Scotland, would be able to decide differently on matters.

Re: Brexit
 

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2019/03/8.jpg

The sound of moving goalposts...

There is an NI Assembly, there already exists both a Scottish Parliament and a Welsh Assembly - there does not exist an English Parliament, and raising the point is just trying to introduce irrelevancies to the thread...

Re: Brexit
 

Agreed. Parliament is agreed on the need to avoid a costly no-deal but little else, however.

Re: Brexit
 

The routes are pretty obvious now.

a) If they can come back with something that the attorney general can change his legal advice on then the vote will pass BUT currently the EU are saying there's no progress despite the Attorney Generals codpiece wittering yesterday

b) enough MP's are in fear of No Deal so much that they back May's deal unsure of stopping no deal.

c) Mays deal fails, no deal blocked. Article 50 extended. May replaced, cycle repeats.


In order of chances occurring C,A,B would be my guess.

Re: Brexit
 

This is the only viable option

Not sure how this differs from a) but it's May's deal or no deal at this stage

This achieves nothing. If extended A50 will not be extended beyond the European Elections so there is a hard stop there. We get maximum a couple of months. The EU keep stating that they will not change the deal so what is expected to happen?

Only thing that would happen would be more capitulation by the weak UK.

Re: Brexit
 

no deal be ruled out next Wednesday when parliament vote it out

Re: Brexit
 

Sorry, should have clarified further opt b) is may's deal without any further adjustments


Interesting on the R4's today program yesterday, they were talking to a group of MP's and at least a couple mentioned that they would vote for what they believed was the nations best interest

I think we'll have to politely disagree, a) wont happen b) wont happen

Re: Brexit
 

What would C achieve?

Re: Brexit
 

Who knows but if the others are ruled out by Parliament then that's all that's left by the process of elimination. Maybe a) or b) will win when the extension is up?
Maybe it's what it doesn't achieve that is more important.

Re: Brexit
 

Portugal have the right idea. They have said that, if it does go ahead in three weeks time, they realise that Brexit is tricky, so will create a special queue for British people and process them ASAP. They will also continue to offer us free healthcare.

Re: Brexit
 

Looks like these shoppers know whats coming.

“People are realising they might not be able to come to Calais and bring back the same amount of wine if we get a hard Brexit. They are stockpiling.”



https://www.theguardian.com/politics...it-stockpiling

Re: Brexit
 

They're not stockpiling, they just like drinking, just another weekend. It's much the same in Sainsbury's when they have 25% off wine...
(And what are you doing reading that lefty rag ! ;) )

Re: Brexit
 

Know your enemy ;)

Re: Brexit
 

The enemy of my enemy is my friend....;)

Re: Brexit
 

The anenome of my enemy is my enema... ;)

Re: Brexit
 

And do what? Exactly?

---------- Post added at 20:27 ---------- Previous post was at 20:24 ----------

So they should vote to reject the deal regardless, without knowing what will happen. With no plan.

Sounds strangely like the accusations labelled at brexiteers.

Re: Brexit
 

Can’t complain, then...

Re: Brexit
 

That's a nice thought!

Re: Brexit
 

that's why we in this mess in first place no leave group had a plan

Re: Brexit
 

Why on earth would any leave group need a plan? And how could they implement it even if they did?

It's not as though they could go waltzing into parliament and say "right chaps, this is what we're going to do . . no arguments, just get on with it"

Re: Brexit
 

Come on, Dave. The referendum was about ideas. It was an all party referendum. That's what so many remainers are forgetting.

---------- Post added at 03:36 ---------- Previous post was at 03:34 ----------

Hi, Denfone!

(Just joking!)! ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Yeah why would you need a plan, when it's easier to dismiss experts and facts for feelings a plan is pure fantasy, why bother, wouldn't want anyone to be accountable after all

---------- Post added at 07:04 ---------- Previous post was at 07:04 ----------

Reports are coming out that Chris Grayling tried to resign last night, some how all he managed to do was cancel his Netflix subscription though

Re: Brexit
 

Oh dear.

Any idiot can have an "idea". An idea only becomes credible when you have a viable plan. Until then, it is just another idea unless of course, enough people can persuaded to follow the Pied Piper ..

Re: Brexit
 

Looking like Labour's People's Vote motion will be delayed until after the vote on Theresa May's deal on Tuesday. (Is this the second vote on her deal? I'm losing count.)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...um-put-on-hold

Re: Brexit
 

So because their was no plan at the time as an alternative, we should have simply waved the white flag in WW1 and WW2?


Is the EEC/EU the same as the one voted for in 1975? Either there was no plan for remain at that time, or people were misled about what was going to happen.

Re: Brexit
 

I was highlighting the irony.

Re: Brexit
 

Thie instigators of these wars had plans. The instigators of Brexit did not.

Re: Brexit
 

The EU(ie Germany & France) have plans, and we don't agree with them. So what do we do? Raise the white flag?

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)
 

Come on people, all this stuff about Leave not having a plan or taking responsibility has been done before. The Government gave us a two option choice, it was up to them to 'plan' for either outcome


from 20/9/18

Re: Brexit
 

The EU were not the instigators of Brexit. The fact that the EU has a plan is to its credit. I think people are now starting to accept that we don't hold all the cards and that they don't need us more than we need them.

Re: Brexit
 

The EU plan was always a simplistic one . . . don't budge an inch, make the UK struggle to find terms that are agreeable with all parties, make them beg.

The UK plan was . . that the referendum vote was 'in the bag' as a remain win.

Big Dave didn't have the life experience that taught many of us the fact that being on 'safe ground' doesn't mean you won't trip up ;)

Re: Brexit
 

The EU plan is to look after its own political and economic interests. The UK is acting against its own political and economic interests which is what is making implementation difficult.

Re: Brexit
 

Pre-WW2, we did have a plan.

Conscription was introduced 6 months before war was declared, money was allocated for Navy convoy escorts, secret radar stations were installed along the South Coast - re-armament was started in 1936 in response to the growing threat, with the first Shadow Factories opening in 1937.

Re: Brexit
 

But we don't need the EU it's the dreamers that appear to think we do

Re: Brexit
 

It'll be a tough lesson to learn for many, when they discover the effect of leaving the EU. I really don't think many realise what the effect will be on prices/jobs/standard of living. Doubtless there will then be someone else to blame.

Re: Brexit
 

The EU of course for not giving us the benefits of membership without being a member!

Re: Brexit
 

Public swinging behind no deal Brexit, as Tories and DUP urge May to invoke plan B


Support for a no-deal Brexit is growing in the face of the EU's refusal to help salvage Theresa May's deal, according to a new poll.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rowing-number/

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1098072/brexit-news-no-deal-uk-leave-EU-theresa-may-brussels-public-poll

looks like the people are getting fed up with the EU.

Re: Brexit
 

Or just getting fed up with our Brexit negotiating (in)ability!

Re: Brexit
 

l suspect there are just as many people getting fed up with Theresa May and HMG as are fed up with the EU....

Re: Brexit
 

Or, also known as, 2000 people asked by a poll commissioned by the rabid anti-EU Daily Express.

I believe it .. :) It's the truth, honest ..

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

29% favour a second referendum v 27% a no-deal Brexit.
Unsurprisingly, voters are fed up with the way that it's dragging on.

Re: Brexit
 

A second referendum would make it drag on longer.

Re: Brexit
 

Let's not cloud the issue with facts.

Re: Brexit
 

Although I'm not in favour of a second referendum, it would likely give a Remain result which would end things quite quickly.
It's easy to forget; and the Brexit press won't go out of their way to remind you; but if we leave the hardest negotiations for the trade deal are ahead of us and will take years to conclude. That's why the current offer from the EU is relatively generic - the EU is saving its energy for the main negotiations.

Re: Brexit
 

No it wouldn't - why should the Remain result be allowed to stand when the prior result is ignored?

Brexiteers will not allow this travesty to democracy play out.

The division will only fester and get worse - it will certainly not end quickly.

The People of the UK was asked a question, the decision was to leave but the Remainers in the civil service and government thwart this democratic decision, wrongly decide to hold an invalid referendum and I suspect leave probably wins again, Remain has no chance, the corrupted EU has shown it's disgusting true colours over and over in these negotiations and the people of the UK are not stupid and will vote overwhelmingly for leave, do we have the best of three ?

Re: Brexit
 

But that would not be the end of it in the event that a 'remain' verdict came out of it. The likelihood is that fewer people would turn up this time as they would see how the politicians are clearly trying to ignore the will of the electorate.

That means the turnout would be lower and the population would not be convinced that this was the true will of the electorate. You would need to have the same number or more casting their opinion at the ballot to make such a result legitimate.

Accordingly, a second referendum is ore likely to raise further doubts and confusion, not to mention increased anger, rather than solve anything.

Those arguing for another referendum are simply trying to overturn the democratic will of the people and should be ashamed of themselves. These people are not democrats. They are control freaks and dictators who just want their own way, even when outvoted.

Re: Brexit
 

Would that be the same truth to the fact that there was not 700,000 marching for a People's vote late last year and that it's figures on attendance had been over inflated by PV themselves... ? ;)

https://fullfact.org/news/did-670000...s-vote-brexit/

Re: Brexit
 

All I'm going to state about these polls/surveys that people keep mentioning . . is that I've never been asked

Has anyone posting here ever been contacted by phone, post, or internet and asked their views?

Re: Brexit
 

Yes, for YouGov online surveys.

---------- Post added at 12:08 ---------- Previous post was at 12:06 ----------

You're right - it was probably only 450,000...

Re: Brexit
 

You obviously don’t suspect leave wins again hence your impassioned rallying against the confirmatory referendum. If people who want to leave genuinely believed that they’d have nothing to fear.

In practice they know that a second referendum kills their dream off for good. People will have made an informed fact based decision unlike in 2016. Except obviously the Mystic Megs of cable forum that knew Liam Fox was lying when he said the UK/EU deal would be the easiest in history.

Re: Brexit
 

Hang on a minute. I thought the "Public [were] swinging behind no deal Brexit"?

Re: Brexit
 

I've said I don't agree with a second referendum. But I'm being dispassionate here. So I am arguing that a People's Vote and a desire to end the negotiations quickly are not contradictory as we still have a trade deal to negotiate if we leave...and that will take years and years.

Re: Brexit
 

I don't see how a second referendum will solve anything.

Throwing it back to the 'people' would insinuate the Government hasn't got a clue what to do (big lol) and we've already had discussions (arguments) about the choices we'd have on the ballot paper ;)

Re: Brexit
 

It gives the government the cover that it tried to deliver and the people didn’t want it when they saw what it looked like.

The politicians don’t want Brexit but don’t want the blame either. A referendum shifts the blame away from either main party.

Re: Brexit
 

Not sure about politicians not wanting some sort of Brexit. The ERG and Corbyn et al, seem to want this.

However, a second referendum would at least add a veneer of legitimacy to whichever choice is preferred.

Re: Brexit
 

In essence we've had the 2nd referendum, the 1st being the 1975 one. The result of the "2nd" is after eventually finding out what voting remain in 1975 meant. It is inevitable that if we ended up remaining, it will get worse.

Re: Brexit
 

A veneer of legitimacy might do the trick for those on the fence, however what would work much better is the EU deciding to alter a few small details in their 'non negotiable' offer.

Much like they did with the Irish back in 2008:

The first referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon held on 12 June 2008 was rejected by the Irish electorate, by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%, with a turnout of 53%.

The second referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon held on 2 October 2009 and the proposal was approved by 67.1% to 32.9%, with a turnout of 59%.

I know they're not obliged to do anything (hold all the cards, don't need us etc etc) but a small concession here and there may appease enough voters to accept a deal . . . and possibly quieten some of the rumblings in other EU countries?

forgot to add . . interesting but outdated (? ) read from 2008 https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-lisbon-treaty

classic last paragraph :D

Re: Brexit
 

Why should the EU make concessions to appease a small number of extremists who don’t want to be in the EU anyway? If the concessions are as small as you indicate why do the ERG and their like require them at all?

Concessions to Ireland were to a member state, not a soon to be non-member.

Re: Brexit
 

Good point, well made . . . no deal it is then :p:

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Banter about a no-deal is likely the closest we'll ever get to one. Parliament is set to rule it out next week. ;)

---------- Post added at 16:22 ---------- Previous post was at 16:11 ----------

Ireland's always been the junior partner in its negotiations with the UK. Thanks to Brexit, the balance of power is reversed as the EU supports its members. It's not unexpected.

Re: Brexit
 

It’s the natural consequence of our inability to negotiate, yes. Whether the politicians can stomach it or not is another matter.

Re: Brexit
 

With Labour flip flopping more often than a pancake vendor, who knows?

Re: Brexit
 

Yes. Latest iteration seems to be to request an extension so a softer Brexit can be negotiated. But as with any Brexit option be it No-deal, Remain, May's deal or a Norwegian-style deal, would there be a majority for it in Parliament?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eresa-may-deal

Re: Brexit
 

Perhaps, just perhaps, we should have agreed an approach before we went to discuss it with the EU?

Basic rule of consultancy* - agree the approach before you meet the clients, and if anything comes up in the meeting that is out of scope, "we need to take that back to discuss a way forward".

Rule 1 - Agreed approach
Rule 2 - Show single view (pre-requisite is Stage 1)
Rule 3 - if problem arises, ‘let us go away and think about that". Then loop back to Rule 1

*I know, I know - I was young, I needed the money...

Re: Brexit
 

If certain people are going to insist on a customs union, why not choose the Turkey model rather than the Norway model? Customs union except for in certain areas, NO freedom of movement, and to cap it all the EU GIVES you billions.

Re: Brexit
 

If we became as poor as Turkey and wanted to join the EU, I'm sure we would be offered a similar deal.

Re: Brexit
 

According to the remain side, if no deal goes ahead we will be as poor.
Norway isn't part of the EU and doesn't want to be. When their oil and gas runs out, will their sovereign fund generate enough to fund the inflated wages previously in the oil and gas industries?


We are a very different economy to Norway and Turkey.

Re: Brexit
 

only way we get a no deal is have a second referendum as MP's vote no deal out completely on Wednesday rightly so and no not saying they should be a second referendum

Re: Brexit
 

Lol, I'm sure you're joking but if you're serious I'd love to see a link.
Norway has had a close referendum result similar to the UK's. (1994: 52.2% no, 47.8% yes). So it has retained its half-way house with the aim of keeping the whole country unified. This has worked economically but apparently there would be a strong majority not to join the EU if there was another vote.

Presumably, those jobs are paid on a supply and demand basis.

Agreed. The City is not keen on the Norway model as we wouldn't have input on financial services regulation, a key sector for us.

Re: Brexit
 

Wrong.

You still don't get it, it doesn't matter what vote takes place and how it goes on Wednesday, the vote may very well be pulled yet, to keep no deal, on the table, even so, you're forgetting the leave date is enshrined in to law, delaying A50 will not be enough on it's own, Statute can only override Statute, the default is leaving the EU, deal or no deal on 29th March 2019.

Leaving the EU is not an extremist view, nor is it a small number and you would do well to take note of the rules in the first post, ignore them again at your own peril. :nono:

Re: Brexit
 

For clarity by “small number” and I refer to the ERG and DUP and “extremist” their views on a type of Brexit.

I agree that the number of people who want to leave the EU (the referendum result) isn’t small, and most types of Brexit aren’t extremist views.

Theresa May’s deal is supported by most Conservative MPs, and isn’t extremist, for example.

Re: Brexit
 

Corbyn's version of Brexit includes staying in the customs union. That is not Brexit.

Re: Brexit
 

By it’s loose definition it does qualify as Brexit. What you mean to say is that it’s not the type of Brexit you want. Which is a different thing.

Re: Brexit
 

It's not the Brexit people voted for. It means we can't do our own trade deals, which was what was promised and certainly was a key factor for me, alongside getting back our sovereignty, regulating immigration and dumping unwanted EU laws.

Re: Brexit
 

Vote Leave and Leave.EU didn't make any promises. They were suggestions. ;)
Also remember, this is just the withdrawal agreement we're talking about, not the final deal.

Re: Brexit
 

This is something that a great deal of leavers seem to have an issue with understanding, the two options on the ballot were leave and remain, it didn't specify how we left or what type of Brexit we should have.

In the next few posts no doubt there will be some leavers who will pop up with the 'I know what I voted for, leave means <insert personal preference of leave here>'

The fact is, what you know you voted for and the options that were on the ballot paper are two completely different things. Those that voted to leave agreed to let the government decide on what basis we should leave and how closely we should remained aligned to the EU. And you did so by the very general nature of the option that you selected.

Re: Brexit
 

A lot of things were promised that are self evidently undeliverable (and contradictory!) and you cannot possible infer what 17.4 million individuals believed or prioritised when placing a single cross in a box.

Re: Brexit
 

Agreed. In one breath, it's a case of saying that it's up to the Government to implement the vote and my responsibility ceased after I cast my vote. In another breath, the Government is accused of not implementing what I voted for. People can't have it both ways.

Re: Brexit
 

Enough. I’m fecking tired of this discussion of Leavers didn’t know what they were voting for nonsense.

It’s gone on and on for too long so now I’m insisting this debate now moves on.

Some of you are being very provocative, posts like ... “I bet leavers will post the following after I say this....” This is Unacceptable, divisive language.

Time to move the debate on and the “tone” of the thread being antagonistic to cease immediately.

Re: Brexit
 

Not going to happen for 2 reasons:

1/ Parliament, honouring their obligation to serve the best interests of the country, will block it
2/ no democratic mandate. Leave campaign explicitly stated leaving would be with a negotiated deal

This last point is underlined by a certain Mr Gove:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Tory-MPs.html

Re: Brexit
 

The EU really showing it’s corrupted true colours, I’m flabbergasted as to why folk, don’t want the UK to flourish on its own, unteathered to it. But a story today in express says ALL EU Members to adopt the Euro in 2020.

Oh please let there be another Referendum. Another Leave win is a dead cert if the EU force the UK to drop the £. (Pending on whether we’re still in the corrupted bloc).

Re: Brexit
 

I don't think the vote tomorrow will take place, let alone the one on Wednesday. If facing defeat then run away/kick the can down the road again, the old girls got form. Doubtless it will be postponed till 29th March at 10:55pm.....

Re: Brexit
 

Not taking either side here but remember people think differently about a good many things Mick and the EU is not different to that as has been shown in all its Technicolor these past few years.

Re: Brexit
 

That story is not true.

I’d like the UK to flourish and I think that’s more likely to happen with a close trading relationship with our closest neighbours and the second largest single market in the world (and it’s global trade deals) than being outside.

Re: Brexit
 

Fake news! Surely not ! Anyway Mick doesn't read the tabloids ;)

Re: Brexit
 

I can't see that story in the Express. There was a generic tweet along those lines posted last week from a multitude of accounts which was proved to be fake news.
I also don't know anyone who doesn't want the UK to flourish either on its own or as a member of other bodies

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

I think we've just discussed that this is not true.

Re: Brexit
 

We can still trade with our neighbours but we don’t need to be in their corrupt camp, paying a con job membership fee.

Re: Brexit
 

Still seems to be doing well against our currency. The pound was doing well until something happened in 2016. If you've got any euros hang onto them !

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2019/03/10.jpg