Re: Coronavirus
 

Captain Sir Tom

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1604180698

Re: Coronavirus
 

Interesting, I havent seen that mentioned anywhere.

Another difference from last time is that sport can continue as now, behind closed doors.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think it makes sense when you consider all of these measures are about reducing social interactions in the end. The more social interactions we have, the more the virus spreads.

So it's not the case then we need no social interactions, just fewer of them. The virus still spreads but not as much and it's about reducing them in the aggregate.

So the way I see it is that we have a budget of interactions that we can choose to spend. We're choosing, as is most of Europe, to spend that on schools. The limited amount of interactions we can have before it's R above 1 is going to be had at schools.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/h...mid=tw-nytimes (Open using Private Browsing/Incognito Tab)

Re: Coronavirus
 

As predicted by jfman, another obvious point but worth repeating - this now plays well for Keir Starmer,. Starmer called for an immediate circuit breaker on 13th October. He cannot be deflected with “Captain Hindsight” accusations.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Captain Foresight many are saying...

Re: Coronavirus
 

Or is it simply a case of Captain Opposite? Foresight would've been predicting it a year or even six months ago.
In April he was advocating the ending of the lockdown, so much for foresight.

Re: Coronavirus
 

A year ago?

Really? The first case was 17th November 2019...

https://www.livescience.com/first-ca...rus-found.html [quote]

Re: Coronavirus
 

Predicting a year into the future would've been a clear example of Foresight. Foresight is related to the future, not the present.
If he had said 6 months ago, that another lockdown WOULD be needed, then again that might've been foresight. Instead talking about the ending of lockdown, doesn't suggest that.

Re: Coronavirus
 

[QUOTE=Hugh;36055844]A year ago?

Really? The first case was 17th November 2019...

https://www.livescience.com/first-ca...rus-found.html

And had he predicted it we could call him captain foresk er foresight;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think you are confusing foresight with fortune telling - are you Nadine Dorries?

Anyhoo, back to vaccine research...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/v...irms-rtlzrz8v5

So, the Head of the UK's Vaccine Taskforce (who's a Venture Capitalist) tells a Venture Capitalist conference which companies the UK Government may be investing in?

Sounds legit...:shocked:

*married to a Tory MP. Jesse Norman, 58, who is financial secretary to the Treasury and attended Eton at the same time as Johnson.

Re: Coronavirus
 

When Jacob Rees-Mogg’s firm said it was a once in a generation opportunity for super-normal profits to be extracted from investments I didn’t think even they would have foreseen this kind of corruption.

Re: Coronavirus
 

If it's cloudy, and X says it's not going to rain, but Y says it is going to rain, is that foresight or just saying the opposite.
When lockdown was in place, he was talking about the ending of lockdown, when it wasn't, he was supposedly talking about introducing a nationwide lockdown.:confused: Foresight or just saying the opposite?
His motives aren't for the health of people, but for the continued propping up of businesses.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-covid-one-day

1% positive. Not great evidence for the false positives brigade.

Re: Coronavirus
 

He's agreed with the government on keeping the schools open and has disagreed with the unions on this, so the Captain Opposite description is flawed.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Doesn't fit in with foresight either.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Doesn't fit in with hindsight either.

---------- Post added at 16:58 ---------- Previous post was at 16:53 ----------

Well, if you thought it was all get a bit seedy on the contracts front, you could always complain to the Government's Anti-Corruption Champion, John Penrose MP. But then he's married to the head of track and trace Dido Harding so that may not turn out too well.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not a conclusive test.

I wouldn't call a report in The Lancet "the false positives brigade".

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

He need not have worried, I would not have been "alarmed" ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Me thinks a big problem we had is the local restrictions should have been more like a quarantine. Not much good shutdown an area and then having the "plague carriers" still moving to other regions.
Schools are probably OK to keep open as long as pupils are within region, the the Uni's where students have moved all over the place that's caused lot of spread.
It's how Australia managed by closing borders between states. But we are much smaller than Oz and much harder to stop people moving between areas.

Re: Coronavirus
 

STAT STUMBLE Death forecast used to justify national lockdown is based on old stats and may be four times too high, scientists say


The projections were based on research conducted three weeks ago by Cambridge University, the Telegraph reports.

Experts have questioned why the work is still being used to make decisions when the university has published more recent research, whose estimated death tolls are considerably lower.

Speaking to the Telegraph, Professor Carl Heneghan, director of Oxford University's Center for Evidence-Based Medicine, said it was "deeply concerning" that out-of-date data was bring used in decision-making.

“Our job as scientists is to reflect the evidence and the uncertainties and to provide the latest estimates," he said.

“I cannot understand why they have used this data, when there are far more up-to-date forecasts from Cambridge that they could have accessed, which show something very different.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/130820...imes-too-high/

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well, I wouldn't be surprised.

All metrics should still show an increase for the next two-three weeks at the very least.

So I'll watch with morbid interest.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The same people deny the stats every time yet the last time the trend was 200 deaths a day by November which we exceeded.

Re: Coronavirus
 

True, one set of 'experts' usually contradicts another set of 'experts' . . . probably because they read/used the data differently :confused:

pick a card, any card . .

Jack of Clubs . .

ok, this is what we'll do next week :rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/s...late-6tzstqnr9

"world beating"...

Re: Coronavirus
 

World ending more like.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Bloody Civil Servants. Roll on the forthcoming clear out. :sniper:

Re: Coronavirus
 

There’s no actual evidence that it went wrong due to Civil Servants at all. Could equally be those private sector consultants on £7000 a day...

Re: Coronavirus
 

You may wish to adjust your aim...

https://www.med-technews.com/feature...ehind-the-app/ tl:dr - it was developed, and is maintained by, a private company

Re: Coronavirus
 

That does surprise me, I thought it was developed by a couple of aging hackers in a back street garage somewhere in Wolverhampton.


It certainly works as though it was.

Re: Coronavirus
 

A promising development. :)
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news...id-19-19210041

Re: Coronavirus
 

Only if everyone is willing to have the test. There's a backlash on social media which will have an affect.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well social media is populated by a lot of idiots, so what do you expect.

The article makes it pretty clear ;

If you dont want one, dont bother, but dont complain about city restrictions either.

Re: Coronavirus
 

One of many pilot sites, Redcar also lined up for the same.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I await the results with increasing hilarity :D

Wish they'd mass test all factories, then you'd see panic ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Isn't Cable Forum under the banner of Social Media? Right you are!

Re: Coronavirus
 

And has the same people consistently spouting misinformation, for the benefit of people unknown. Spot on, Pierre.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sorry to be very late with an answer (I have a sick kid at the moment)

What you are saying is broadly right. An older person who shakes of other viral diseases is thought to be more likely to have a better immune response.

The effectiveness of shaking off a bug is related to the persons general health and nutrition along with the health of the immune system. As we age, there is an effect called immunosenescence which is the aging of the immune system. This affects both cellular and humoral immunity. Cellular immunity is the ‘T-cell response’ broadly. This can be specific or non-specific. Non specific is where a cell says it is infected and says ‘help’ to the immune system, bringing in cells that will kill the infected cell and cause inflammation. After infection, you get specific responses where immune cells will remember the infected cells.

Humoral immunity are the antibodies. These are made by another group of immune cells called B cells.

Both T and B cells have the same precursor (haematopoietic stem cells) so as these cells age, this can impact the whole immune system. Therefore, your ‘cellular age’ is important. As the immune system ages, both the quantity and quality of the cells will drop, along with the antibodies they produce in the case of B cells. Some people age gracefully, some wither. It’s the same for the immune system.

Immunology is very complicated which is why I became a microbiologist. Much simpler....

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Nope. Forums have existed far longer, before 'Social Media' was a thing.
CF is older than Facebook, Twitter or Instagram, its even a week older than MySpace. :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Oh I know, I remember back to the Nthellword days. We were pioneers or for our friends from Wigan, Pie in here!

Re: Coronavirus
 

No need to panic anyway ;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54779499

:D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Another so called expert talking out of his arse and forcing a lockdown that isn't even needed. :rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

The only 'expert' I've ever taken notice of, was my dear old mum.

With that look on her face and a slipper in her hand, you listened closely . . . or else :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

There is too much FUD flying around and it's making the public allow too much power to be wielded too easily by those in charge.

Covid is a threat and needs to be dealt with and the public do have their part to play which if they had done we may not have needed a second lockdown.

But very little is promoted about the risks to the healthy population. The NHS England figures for death within 28 days of positive Covid test with no (known) underlying condition is low.

Total deaths no pre-existing condition = 1,491, if below 60 it's 315.
With pre-existing condition it's 30,993, if below 60 it's 2,391.

The big jumps are in the older population above 60 (nearly there) but that group could be skewed to the upper end more than other groups.

So while we do need to take action we must be careful not to allow government to ride over our freedoms easily or set precedent to allow erosion of those freedoms for "future threats".

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

They're private premises and absolutely entitled to decide who comes in.

In the case of limiting numbers of people from each household, I suspect it's to make it harder for panic buyers from the same household to go round in packs filling multiple trolleys and defeating quantity restrictions.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sainsbury's have the same suggestion but I don't think it's rigorously enforced.

Probably to limit the number of people in the store. More people more transmission and more difficult to keep social distancing.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Just queue separately, dont tell them you are the same household. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Back in March, Waitrose said it's for social distancing reasons.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...-a9436236.html

Re: Coronavirus
 

Exactly. How would they know?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Lockdown formally approved by the Commons.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/130513...cond-lockdown/

Re: Coronavirus
 

That was an awkward moment for Boris, when former PM Theresa May stood to her feet for her intervention and Boris got up and walked out. :erm:

Re: Coronavirus
 

My local was selling the remaining open beers at half price to empty the barrels rather than throw it down the drain. A bonus for those who like bitters, Guinness and IPA

Only lager that was on was Coors.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I was watching and he actually was already on his way out of the chamber when she started talking. I suspect that he knew what she was about to say.

Another thing has been allowed from to-day which hopefully will allow a lot of people to see family is ....

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...ester-19221367

Other local articles are available but I have just posed my local one.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

And if you follow the rest of the Tweets it doesn't seem to be directly Covid-19 related but a welfare concern.

https://twitter.com/claytonbuckland/...208979456?s=21

Re: Coronavirus
 

73-year-old retired nurse, trying to move a 97-year-old dementia suffering woman. Not a great idea.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yeah it’s all over Facebook but dive deeper.

The local authority are responsible for her, the family are not.

Legally if the Local Authority let her go they would be liable if anything happened. The family could have applied to the court, over many months, to take her out of LA care and into their care, but they didn’t and then trying to take her without any authority left the LA with no choice.

It looks bad, but it is the families own doing.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Oh look, people using [anti] Social Media to spread misinformation, I'm shocked. :dozey:

Re: Coronavirus
 

FBPE Blue Ticks must be losing money now that The Guardian is giving time to senile former judge Sumption to promote herd immunity.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-mental-health

Here's an article criticising covid restrictions by Sumption from September:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/lord-s...herings-fines/

Indeed he even described the situation in March as 'hysteria':

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=1584

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well of course, if jfman disagrees it must be wrong/bad/whatever.

Maybe in your world everyone thinks there is nothing wrong with lockdowns and a police state enforcing them. In mine, not so much.

The response to this virus has been nothing short of hysterical, destroying the economy, businesses, jobs (and yes, lives).
How many people have died becasue of all of this ? - probably no one will ever know.

How many more will die becasue all anyone cares about is CV19.
For the record, I now know (directly or indirectly) of five people who have had it.
None went to hospital, all recovered, one simply tested positive, but never even felt ill.

I know 6 people who have lost their jobs, and several more back on furlough, with their jobs in jepody.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'm only pointing out that the same voices who never agreed with lockdown in the first place are out there against all the evidence arguing against this one. I don't believe a police state is a good idea but if you peddle mistrust year on year in experts and politicians then you get the society that you get.

It may never be known how many people die of Covid-19 and more importantly we will never know how many would have died without intervention.

I've never disputed the economic cost of the pandemic however I've stated it is not just a consequence of lockdown - working from home, shielding, and reduced demand are part of this. However it is the role of Government to step up to the plate in this regard.

Government (any) has no intention of ever repaying the £2trn of debt we are in. The cost of servicing debt is at an all time low. There's an opportunity to work within these macroeconomic levers to support people, jobs, employers. Although it appears it's pointless if you spunk billions up the wall to Dido Harding's pals and consultancies who cannot develop a track and trace system.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’m not sure what your point is. Once again, you criticise people for their views without actually answering the points they make.

You’d better hope that herd immunity does work with COVID-19, or the vaccines won’t be effective!

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think there are two different herd immunity versions being talked about though.

Natural herd immunity - which is what the Great Barrington Declaration suggested. This is the one that most scientists say isn't achievable without massive risk and lots of excess death. It's also never been managed by design with any other disease.

Herd immunity via ongoing vaccination - this is what is normally meant when scientists refer to herd immunity, the one we're all hoping will work, is why a vaccine is being produced, and has a proven history as it was the way Smallpox and Polio have been wiped out in countries.

Re: Coronavirus
 

My point is that the same people who have been consistently wrong throughout continue to howl at the moon about reopening the economy ignorant of the fact that the health vs economy is a false comparison.

On that note the spreadsheet whizzes at the Bank of England just injected £150bn into the economy.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54824120
That's going to cost, our credit rating will start looking dodgy ...

Maybe its an admission that we'll be locked down for most of Winter, with a poss. break for Xmas , which will undo any good done in the lockdown so far. Cancelling Christmas would be the best move, its humbug anyway ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Which countries aren't having to borrow?
Credit Rating is more about ability to pay it back.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Credit ratings are all relative. As long as we are borrowing in GBP it's all good, we own the spreadsheet.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

This HuffPost article makes a compelling argument by detailing the seven points that weren't learnt from the last lockdown.
1. Too slow to go into lockdown
2. Not learning from other countries
3. False hope and poor communication
4. BAME people are still being let down
5. Lack of transparency with figures
6. Parents treated as an afterthought
7. Lack of notice
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...rtan-ntp-feeds

Re: Coronavirus
 

Headteacher apologises.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Says it exactly as it is.

Explaining why No. 4 in Andrew's list above is perhaps not the fault of any guidance or instructions ( Or lack of ) by HMG. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Spot on.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Doesn't explain how men were twice as susceptible as women, across all racial groups. Everybody keep conveniently forgetting that.
Were the BAME groups more likely to get together in large gatherings? How many wedding parties with 100+ guests have been found out, and how many haven't? Those parties won't have come cheap(so much for the poverty claims).
It's been found even hospital staff were lacking in sticking to hygiene routines. Were the BAME groups generally less likely to stick to the enhanced hygiene routines?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

I wouldn't fancy womens chances loitering around the schoolyard gates.

Re: Coronavirus
 

So there hasn't been any large weddings parties, funerals, shisha "clubs", etc caught out?:rolleyes: How many haven't been caught out and made the news?

Link
An activity that involves sharing saliva isn't a great idea.
Link
Certainly at least one hospital(out of how many that have been examined recently? and that I know of) has been criticised for lack of enhanced hygiene behaviour. One of the factors has been blamed on BAME being in the NHS. It was a question, rather than a statement.
At least I have more of a basis than the usual screaming of unsubstantiated claims of "institutionalised racism".
Eg Link
Iran has been badly affected, so how does that fit in?
Senior BAME NHS staff have been affected, so again how does that fit in?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Ohh don’t be so sweeping with your generalisations, I do all the school runs as do many other blokes, granted I reckon a 70/30 split.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I know. :)

I was only following up on Seph's generalisation in the post above mine about men going out to work.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The ONS conclusion on ethnicity and Covid deaths.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...20#main-points

Re: Coronavirus
 

The only way to be able to include those factors was if there were large BAME populations where those factors weren't there. Is that the case? I very much doubt it. You can't include factor X for group Y, unless there is a group Y where factor X doesn't apply to compare it against.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Covid lockdown stats FALSE: Whitty and Vallance quietly change data after 'scaring' Brits
CORONAVIRUS statistics used to justify a second lockdown in England have quietly been amended, drastically lowering the number of anticipated daily deaths.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...trick-vallance


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/131229...ment-forecast/



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ss-first-wave/

Re: Coronavirus
 

So still 6,000 hospital admissions each DAY. with 1,000 deaths each DAY, matching the previous peak.
Nothing to worry about then.:rolleyes:
The lower range of the predictions haven't changed.

Re: Coronavirus
 

:rolleyes:you:rolleyes:seem:rolleyes:to:rolleyes:b e:rolleyes:using:rolleyes:that:rolleyes:emoji:roll eyes:quite:rolleyes:alot:rolleyes:these days.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well if people will keep talking a load of nonsense these days.
Even the adjusted graph shows reaching the previous peak level by next month, and if nothing was done then that would increase yet further.
Part of the reason for the timing of this lockdown, is to hopefully not need it over Christmas time, which people were whinging about.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Trouble is, this human ingenuity to avoid rules encourages heavier lockdowns.

In Sweden, they suggest good practice to limit the spread and everyone does it for the good of society. In the UK, we find clever ways of breaking good practice and the government imposes lockdowns.

Re: Coronavirus
 

More reasons why uncontrolled spread of a virus is a bad idea. Billions of mutation opportunities compromising immunity.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...mpression=true

20 deaths in Sweden too.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Apparently this spoof graph is circulating amongst Tory MPs:

Attachment 28664

Re: Coronavirus
 

They're all spoof graphs these days.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Are the increasing numbers of hospital admissions and deaths a spoof as well?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Gather some figures for me to look at and i'll give it my full attention,nice to see you're not using that emoji.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Great Tweet thread from Ed Conway "Numbers guy" of Sky News. Includes the following:
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/stat...19551335403520

Re: Coronavirus
 

Ed's going down the herd immunity route. Been on the cards for a while sad to see him join those howling at the moon.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don't believe he is. He's just critical of the way that data is not being as openly shared as it might.

The natural herd immunity tribe is declining, I believe.