Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Is Beau the one that died?

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Yes. 5 years ago.

I have updated my last post to reflect the significance of Joe's massive Cognitive issues.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

It shows the state of the US when the choice is a toss-up between Trump and a 77-year-old candidate who is a poor public speaker prone to terribe gaffs.

But what does it show about the state of Trump's presidency when that poor public speaker is likely set to depose him as President?

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

He probably meant to say 'This is my son, Beau Biden,'s daughter'. A slip up in sentence construction rather than mixing up his granddaughter with this late son. That would be more consistent with this recent slip-ups..

He has made more of that kind of mistake rather than the type where people forget family members are dead.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Well, if that’s an attempt to dance around a very real cognitive issue, it’s a poor one.

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Yes, but not good is it? If he is showing sign of cognitive degeneration, for which the evidence is mounting, but not conclusive yet by any means, it’s still not a good start.

I maintain, if he wins, Kamala Harris will be president come the next election.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Well no. I mean in isolation whatever but with other incidents, it is a bit concerning. I am reluctant to diagnose someone when I am not a Doctor and the only evidence are these clips but if it were Trump I would also be a bit concerned about it.

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Not long until polls close now. Whatever has been set in motion is coming to a close so just gotta wait now....

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

My understanding that Biden's always been a poor speaker due to stuttering issues. Most Americans know this but in the current election, Trump and others have played this up as dementia. He's been tested and his mental health is fine.
https://thehill.com/changing-america...s-campaign-and

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Bearing in mind that some are doctored we would all be wise to leave his health analysis to the doctors. But we should be more concerned about Biden's health than Trump's as he is the most likely US president for the next few years.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Breaking! Based on the party registration of people going into polling stations, the exit polls and adjusted for the last election there has been the first projection made. I am wrapping it spoiler tags because it's not official but it's pretty shocking and I don't think Mick will be happy :(

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Ha - already saw that earlier today... :D

In other news, New York Times Newspaper in America says it is up to them and the media to declare who the election winner is...

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1323739295887314945

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

To be fair it is usually the Decision Desks at the networks who call the election. AP usually calls it when CNN, Fox, ABC, NBC and some other one I forget all call a state. The Decision Desks of each network aren't allowed to follow the news so that they don't call it because the other ones did.

Usually they haven't done it if the remaining votes could change the race but we never wait for the full results to be signed off. 2000 being the exception.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Seems NYT just deleted their above tweet. :D

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Exit Polls (which might be misleading this time) is good for Trump? 48% say he has done a good job on COVID. That's higher than normal polls which might suggest the polls are wrong.

But also the polls might be missing dems who voted more by mail this time.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

The turnout for this election is supposedly way higher than last time, off the back of the postal vote. Exit polls can’t pick up on postal votes and if the postal vote is as high as is claimed the exit polls will be pretty meaningless.

There’s little point speculating now anyway. We may have a good idea who actually won it by early tomorrow morning.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Disco nap done. Beer poured.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

BREAKING: Trump wins Kentucky

@AP
project.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

What is everyone watching on? CNN are annoying me by zooming in on places with like 50% of the vote reporting.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

CNN but on cable don't have much choice from a US perspective.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Yeah, I would rather watch the United States' coverage.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Like you I'm not sure I could do 3 to 4 hours of Jon King driving this far into the data. Might see if anyone else is streaming coverage.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Flordia is starting to look like it's going to Trump

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Rollercoaster.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

The NYT gives Trump a 93% chance of winning Florida

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

This is what happened last time.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

The NYT gives Trump a 75% Chance of winning Georgia

They also give Biden a 66% chance of winning North Carolina

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

That last one is largely based on polling. NC hasn't come in yet. However, the polling might well be off if Flordia and Georgia aren't that close.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

BREAKING: Current Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell wins reelection to the U.S. Senate from Kentucky, fending off a challenge from Democrat Amy McGrath

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

NBC news saying Florida too close to call.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1604452158

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Biden doesn't have anywhere else to make up the votes I don't think?

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Those tallies are way behind.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Not in FL. The Central Time zone that closed 20 minutes ago is more likely to vote Trump anyway, and the numbers are smaller.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

North Carolina is now tilting Trump

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Tom Newton Dunn: Elsewhere: current counting shows Biden ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Texas. Mail-in votes counted first though, so Trump will rebound in all.

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Loving this US election night. Regardless of who wins - I Haven't thought about Covid-19 for the last three hours. :D

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Now showing Trump making progress.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1604454895

I'm off to bed now, will see what the morning brings.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

That Biden is doing alright in Ohio is a good sign for him in Pennsylvania e.t.c according to CNN. But we'll see.

Btw in Ohio the early votes are counted alongside the in-person votes so it doesn't apply there.

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Because of the Electoral College, the US elections are much more exciting.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Biden's lead in Ohio was 300k half an hour ago. It's 85k now.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

This looks like it's going to be a close election then

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Trump 4/6 on Ladbrokes. Biden 11/10.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

If this holds it will be the biggest miss in political history I think. 2016 wasn't that big a miss. If it misses by this much then I don't understand how much value polls will have in America, they just can't seem to capture an ever-changing demographic.

UK polls are generally still ok though.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

538 started with Trump at 11% win likelihood and now has him at 50%

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Mick how are you following it? CNN are guessing (don't know how) that early votes are 40% of current totals in Ohio and they expect it to grow to 53% of final total, possibly offsetting Trump inroads in rural areas.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

I follow more than one source, I have several browser windows open. I am not just relying on just one news outlet. Fyi my TV is not on, following all the data online.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Trumps won this. im off to bed! Really predictable I thought yet the pollsters hadnt learnt from 2016

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Trump now in lead in Ohio.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

We won't know whose won Pennsylvania tonight.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

China Yuan just tanked at the prospect of Trump winning his second term.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Bed time for me. Enjoy.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Looking even closer than last time.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Doesnt seem that close on the BBC site ;

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2020/11/2.png

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

If donny wins he deserves it, he's done much more to earn it over the last month or so, he might be irresponsible holding these super spreader events but his opponent has done literally nothing, he doesn't even seem to have bothered having a message other than "I'm not that guy".

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

225 Biden v 213 Trump
434 out of 538 called

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Trump has declared himself the winner.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

That is because he knows the result and knows deep down he is going to lose.

Accept the result Donald unless you don't believe in true democratic democracy.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Biden says he's on track to win. Trump says he will go to Supreme Court and calls election "major fraud" - Sky News.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

A Trump or Biden win. Either way-The pollsters are the biggest losers tonight.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Georgia has become competitive again and Arizona has been declared for Biden. Biden needs either the Michigan & Wisconsin or Wisconsin & Georgia to win without PA.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

there's still time to send in a postal vote with a fake date stamp on it.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

I guess they are both like Marmite. Hated and liked in equal measures.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

The challenge for Biden will be to unite the country assuming he wins. Unfortunately, Trump's positioning here of the election result as a "major fraud" doesn't help.
When the time comes as seems likely, Trump should toughen up and accept defeat gracefully. His business needs him and the US needs unity at a time of Coronavirus.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

By far. This is a much, much, bigger miss than Clinton. Clinton was a few state polls being out by a few points. Bad, but foreseeable. Brexit likewise, a few points that seem a bigger miss because it said Remain but went to Leave. However that was < 5% off.

This is huge. Wisconsin will not be a 10 point blowout for Biden. It'll be wafer-thin either way. Ditto Michigan. Flordia seems to be 5 points out. Pennsylvania we'll see but that will likely be 5 points out.

Georgia seems to be about right. It'll be close. Arizona too.

But huge misses elsewhere. Not sure about the popular vote yet but that has to be wrong.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Wisconsin on course to flip to blue. It's happening. :erm:

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

I think I read something that the pollster group that called a Trump win last time has him winning again this time but by smaller certainty/margin. May have been on BBC but not so bothered to dig it out.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

If Wisconsin goes blue then Michigan or Georgia could end this today before the legal battles start.

If ballots arrive late then Trump might be able to legally contest it (although many of these states have had the same rules for a while) but if Wisconsin and Michigan - just as an example - declared based on the actual vote count he has no grounds to overturn the result because he didn't think the votes should be counted!

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Just looked on the Washington Post the difference is .3% between the two. Could Trump contest this?


Sky News saying Georgia to Trump

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Probably, depends if the margin increases or deceases and tips back to Trump. At the moment it's mostly dem postal votes coming in.


Weird for a UK network to call it. Fox News hasn't yet.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Post #693 ;)

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Very, AP haven't called it either yet. 94% reporting

Trump 50.3%
Biden 48.3%

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Whatever happens it's going to come down to a few thousand votes again. Probably in Wisconsin and Michigan either way.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Maybe that's through their NBC link as both now part of Comcast?

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

No one has called Georgia yet. Some wires got crossed and the difference between leaning R and is R got mixed up IMO.

Sky don't have a decision desk nor the experience of running one. UK networks don't call American elections.

---------- Post added at 12:26 ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 ----------

This is starting to go in Biden’s direction

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

I kind of thought it would be when Trump called the election fraudulent. He's many things but not stupid and wouldn't say that if he was going to win. I think his polling intelligence is probably stronger than the public polls we're seeing though.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

For those of us lacking the deep understanding of how the ongoing count is 'read' and extrapolations towards calling are made ... how is it now going Biden's direction?

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Michigan and Wisconsin are tied or have Biden are ahead but the remaining vote seems to be largely from from Democratic areas it seems

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

:tu:

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

From the BBC...

'With 99% of votes counted, Democratic challenger Joe Biden has taken a slim lead (about 20,000 votes right now) over President Donald Trump in the Midwestern industrial state of Wisconsin.

Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin by less than 30,000 votes back in 2016 in a major upset.

Despite Biden's slim lead, the race remains too close to be projected.

Wisconsin could be pivotal in determining who wins the White House.'

I reckon Trump will force a recount on this one...

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

I always look to the bookies when things are unclear, they usually price it right. Biden favourite right now.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics.../winning-party (is an Independent still worth a bet at 979-1 ;))

Crazy country, crazy electoral system - one person one vote for President seems simpler and fairer. The UK isn't much better in that regard.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Wisconsin doesn’t have an automatic recount https://ballotpedia.org/Election_rec...0_states,_2020

Usually it’s 0.5% which Biden looks like he’ll clear? So can’t see a recount there unless it gets really close

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

That is quite a swing, last night they favoured Biden, this morning they heavily favoured Trump.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Still favouring Biden - 4/7 vs 11/5

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Shortly after this Biden went out as far as 3/1. I took a punt at 2/1.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Still prefer our system to theirs.

Can you imagine constituencies pausing their vote tally, last night areas in some of their battleground states just stopped at 9.30pm. Things like that just sow suspicion of voter fraud. Then suddenly at 4am over there, 140K ballots all went to Biden, in Wisconsin, no that’s not suspicious at all. :rolleyes:

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Wisconsin Senate (Rep 18, Dem 13) and Assembly (Rep 63, Dem 34) are run by Republicans.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Is the bulk update not due to the fact many places don't do a manual count and that it's hard drives/machines having their data uploaded?

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Of course he will, Trump doesn't do gracious. He'll probably take it to the supreme court.

We probably won't know who is president until December

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Michigan now has Biden ahead. If Trump can’t recover there or Wisconsin, or flip Nevada then Biden is at 270

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We do have constituencies that pause counting in the early hours then restart later don’t we? Especially some of the islands

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Looks like the late blue postal surge was on point.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Well, like Piers Morgan said earlier, one of the richest super power countries in the world and it cannot get it’s voting system to run smoothly.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Well it seemed to have worked in the past. It just didn't expect a man-child to throw his toys out of the pram when things hasn't gone his way.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Who would have thought that a country founded by lawyers would develop such a labyrinthine system of Government and voting?



---------- Post added at 16:03 ---------- Previous post was at 16:01 ----------

2000?

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

I guess it all depends what you class as working

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/04/93108...ion-night-2020

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

There are states trying to form a pact whereby their EC votes get shared out relative to the popular vote in their state. They (probably) couldn't be stopped because it's an issue of States Rights and it would effectively neuter the Electoral College without the need for an amendment. There is no federal law dictating by what method a state divvies up its votes.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Maine and Nebraska already do it that way.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Trump's campaign is saying they'll win Arizona which would mean Biden needs Pennsylvania or Georgia. Fox News called it yesterday, AP today. But other networks have held off. Could be a possible route back for Trump if they've got that wrong.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

No more votes to count in Wisconsin.

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Unless another mail dump appears.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

“They’ve” got the result they want. Lock the doors.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

It's starting.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status...63749125394433

This makes no sense. You've always been allowed to count the votes.

EDIT: They're saying they want meaningful access but it's not clear what that means. They haven't been banned from observing. Do they want to personally review ballots.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

And if they stopped counting now he’d lose!

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

I think they're going to sue or demand recounts in every close state and drag out to the Supreme Court wherever possible. For what goal I don't know.

Re: U.S Election 2020
 

Yup - from The Guardian blog https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...e_iOSApp_Other