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-   -   Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33708900)

papa smurf 14-08-2022 09:23

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36131228)
Freeze the cap so that the price doesn't go up in October.

If a cap can be lifted every few weeks then it's just a target that the energy firms go out of their way to reach ,so i agree with you ,freeze the cap and stop this madness.

nomadking 14-08-2022 09:38

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36131228)
Freeze the cap so that the price doesn't go up in October. So it'll be about £1,300 or something per household.

And how would that reduce the cost of the energy that they supply? If the taxpayer(via borrowing) funds the difference, then it would cost £2.8bn per extra £100 of cost per year, and for how many years? Then there's the "cost of living" expenditure on top of that.

Damien 14-08-2022 09:53

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131232)
And how would that reduce the cost of the energy that they supply? If the taxpayer(via borrowing) funds the difference, then it would cost £2.8bn per extra £100 of cost per year, and for how many years? Then there's the "cost of living" expenditure on top of that.

It wouldn't. It would protect people themselves from the impact, moving that impact onto the Government.

And yes it would cost money. Better than having people see half their monthly income going to keep warm. There are people on disability allowance, carers allowance or even pension who simply can not afford the price cap, it would wipe them out. I believe you need to be earning about 60k for the average price cap price not to move you into the measurement of fuel poverty.

papa smurf 14-08-2022 09:56

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
How about a profit cap-i think the greedy buggers have earned enough out of peoples misery for this year.

nomadking 14-08-2022 10:05

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36131235)
How about a profit cap-i think the greedy buggers have earned enough out of peoples misery for this year.

As I pointed out, it's all of £35/customer/year. Even with the windfall tax of around £180/customer/year, there is still a huge gap.
The UK consumes more than double the amount of gas it produces, so more than half the gas comes from outside of the UK, and outside of UK tax jurisdiction. How can they be described as "greedy" when they don't set the price?

jfman 14-08-2022 10:49

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131236)
As I pointed out, it's all of £35/customer/year. Even with the windfall tax of around £180/customer/year, there is still a huge gap.
The UK consumes more than double the amount of gas it produces, so more than half the gas comes from outside of the UK, and outside of UK tax jurisdiction. How can they be described as "greedy" when they don't set the price?

As pointed out you are using a narrow definition of the energy market.

mrmistoffelees 14-08-2022 11:44

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131236)
As I pointed out, it's all of £35/customer/year. Even with the windfall tax of around £180/customer/year, there is still a huge gap.
The UK consumes more than double the amount of gas it produces, so more than half the gas comes from outside of the UK, and outside of UK tax jurisdiction. How can they be described as "greedy" when they don't set the price?

We still seem to be managing to export most of our gas to continental Europe at the moment….. not for storage but for sale. Which means when we need to buy gas it will be when it is at its most expensive pushing prices even further. If only we had a way to store it. Oh wait that was mothballed

Mr K 14-08-2022 11:57

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131222)
Labour plans can usually be summed up as "beg, borrow, or steal".

A plan the Tories denounced then took up by taxing the energy giants. Wonder if they'll do the same with Sir Ks latest plan? He seems to be running the Govt and calling the shots, someone has to.

ianch99 14-08-2022 11:59

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36131223)
Sounds like the privatised energy firms.

I think you can widen that to privatised energy firms. It is remarkable how the public is so able to be fooled for so long.

heero_yuy 14-08-2022 14:54

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Quote from the Sun on Sunday: KEIR Starmer has been branded a “dead loss” by colleagues who fear he is taking Labour downhill.

After two years he is doing worse than Jeremy Corbyn who led the party to election defeat in 2019.
Sir Keir’s popularity rating was minus four after 704 days as leader.

The hard-Left chief he replaced was minus 3.6 after 715.

Some of his top team privately admit they are resigned to defeat at the next general election unless they can find a charismatic new figurehead.

A senior figure said: “Many of us wish we were more ruthless. If it was the Tory party he’d be gone by now.”
I'm sure the new PM will hope Starmer has a long tenure as Labour leader.:D

denphone 14-08-2022 15:23

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
More concerning for the Conservatives would be this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Ashcroft.html

Pierre 14-08-2022 15:32

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36131262)
More concerning for the Conservatives would be this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Ashcroft.html

The annoying thing is that Starmer has got to this, potential, position completely by default.

He and Labour have offered nothing, absolutely nothing, in regards to coherent policy and governance.

He/they have this lead purely because the Tory party has monumentally disappeared up it’s own arse.

I agree that I don’t see the Tories winning the next election, regardless of who wins the leadership. I also think that the party is in such a state that whoever wins this leadership contest may not necessarily be the leader come the next election.

I’m off to listen to the Charlie Daniels band whist the flames lick the feet of Westminster Palace.

Damien 14-08-2022 15:48

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36131263)
The annoying thing is that Starmer has got to this, potential, position completely by default.

Well, he has got there by changing the party after Corbyn so it doesn't alienate or scare people. It's a strategy that was worked so far because.....

Quote:

He/they have this lead purely because the Tory party has monumentally disappeared up it’s own arse.
Governments lose elections more than oppositions win them. If the Tory Party was competent and the economy was running well then it wouldn't matter who led Labour or what their policies were, the Tories would likely win the next election.

When the vaccine rollout was a success, the country opened up and the economy rebounded on that reopening then the Tories were flying. Labour looked doomed. But then the Tories had self-inflicted gaff after gaff. That should be the biggest regret for Johnson because the things that did him weren't ambitious policies but extracurricular nonsense he got involved in for no political gain.

Really the cost of living crisis has only really started in the last couple of months and the worst of the energy crisis is to come. Most of their polling lead was due to these stupid mistakes

Quote:

He and Labour have offered nothing, absolutely nothing, in regards to coherent policy and governance.
Well there is still some way until the election and you don't announce too much before then. They do need to start making it clear what a Labour Government would look like though. This energy cap freeze and the windfall tax (which the Tories did adopt in the end) are the main things we've seen them announce.

denphone 14-08-2022 16:16

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36131264)
Well, he has got there by changing the party after Corbyn so it doesn't alienate or scare people. It's a strategy that was worked so far because.....



Corbyn was one of the big factors along with Brexit at the last General election.

Both those factors will not come into play much at the next General Election in 2024.

Add to that the huge cost of living crisis and energy bills which are taking a huge chunk out of voters monthly incomes and the Conservatives are going to struggle to get 35% of the popular vote come 2024.

Plus Truss and Sunak don't possess the electability of Johnson.

heero_yuy 14-08-2022 16:23

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36131267)
Plus Truss and Sunak don't possess the electability of Johnson.

Whereas Starmer has all the charisma of a salted slug.

Who is more mediocre?

denphone 14-08-2022 16:38

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36131268)
Whereas Starmer has all the charisma of a salted slug.

Who is more mediocre?

He might not have much charisma but the fact is he is not Corbyn and that in itself will be a considerable advantage.

Allied to that the the cost of living crisis and energy bills going through the roof with 2023 economically likely to be just as bad as this year and the governing party has a huge uphill task.

Plus by 2024 they would have been in power for 14 years.

Historically governments struggle to win a fifth term in office.

Damien 14-08-2022 16:42

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36131268)
Whereas Starmer has all the charisma of a salted slug.

Who is more mediocre?

Liz Truss is saying she doesn't want to give out handouts whereas Labour is talking about keeping the price cap frozen. In the end, if people perceive one party cares about them and the other doesn't then charisma won't matter. I suspect Truss will be forced to do something though.

Maggy 14-08-2022 22:13

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Starmer is just missing in action..I wish Truss was.

Damien 15-08-2022 08:31

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Labour's plan announced: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62542541

They're saying freeze the prices as they are now but will part pay for it by scrapping for £400 payments people were going to get over the winter. The other thing that's interesting is that Labour are saying part of it will pay for itself because it'll help control inflation if energy costs are kept down.

1andrew1 15-08-2022 09:05

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36131287)
Labour's plan announced: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62542541

They're saying freeze the prices as they are now but will part pay for it by scrapping for £400 payments people were going to get over the winter. The other thing that's interesting is that Labour are saying part of it will pay for itself because it'll help control inflation if energy costs are kept down.

A bit like the Liberal Democrats' idea of keeping the price cap as it is and not raising it. As others have said on this Forum, when is a cap not a cap, if you keep raising it all the time?

I'm sure whoever the next Prime Minister is, they will be keen to use any devices that keep inflation in single figures as that inflation rate won't be forgotten by their opponents both on their own side of the house and more importantly, on the Opposition benches as well.

nomadking 15-08-2022 09:31

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36131242)
We still seem to be managing to export most of our gas to continental Europe at the moment….. not for storage but for sale. Which means when we need to buy gas it will be when it is at its most expensive pushing prices even further. If only we had a way to store it. Oh wait that was mothballed

The overall level of demand would still go up come wintertime, along with prices. To some extent we are not exporting gas as such, we are merely moving it through pipelines, from our 3 LNG terminals. Germany has no LNG terminals, so has to get LNG supply using terminals in other countries and their pipelines.
The UK gas production is less than half of what we consume, so we will always be reliant on non-UK supplies.
Germany has a large gas storage capacity, and still had higher gas prices.

mrmistoffelees 15-08-2022 09:45

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131289)
The overall level of demand would still go up come wintertime, along with prices. To some extent we are not exporting gas as such, we are merely moving it through pipelines, from our 3 LNG terminals. Germany has no LNG terminals, so has to get LNG supply using terminals in other countries and their pipelines.
The UK gas production is less than half of what we consume, so we will always be reliant on non-UK supplies.
Germany has a large gas storage capacity, and still had higher gas prices.

Of course you’re right that demand would go up, however the U.K. has 0 long term storage gas we’re producing now is not being stored but is being sold. Meaning when demand does as you say inevitably increase we’re forced to pay an higher price

nomadking 15-08-2022 09:52

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36131288)
A bit like the Liberal Democrats' idea of keeping the price cap as it is and not raising it. As others have said on this Forum, when is a cap not a cap, if you keep raising it all the time?

I'm sure whoever the next Prime Minister is, they will be keen to use any devices that keep inflation in single figures as that inflation rate won't be forgotten by their opponents both on their own side of the house and more importantly, on the Opposition benches as well.

They say they are going save households £1,000. but will not give out the £400. So shouldn't that be £600?
Quote:

The party also said it would raise £14bn from other measures such as dropping the £400 energy rebate,
Quote:

Sir Keir said his party would also reduce energy demand and lower bills in the longer term by insulating 19 million homes over the next decade.
Not much use now or in the near future, with £60bn of borrowing required. Where are they going to get the staff and materials from?
Quote:

"Unless the Labour party proposing breaking international tax law, which I doubt, we can't go and tax the profits that BP and Shell make in a America in the same way we wouldn't allow the US government to tax the profits they make here," he said.
"Both those businesses make very, very little money in the UK, they are international businesses and they are held up saying 'look how much money they are making let's go and tax them and fund it' and that's why, despite that huge hike you have seen already in marginal taxation in the North Sea, it doesn't raise much money."
Spending borrowed/stolen money is easy, the problem comes with paying it back. Just look at Greece.

1andrew1 15-08-2022 10:22

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131289)
The UK gas production is less than half of what we consume, so we will always be reliant on non-UK supplies.

We have failed to invest sufficiently in alternatives to importing gas and the Conservative Party which has governed the country for the last 12 years and Ofgen must take a large chunk of responsibility for the situation and change tack.

If we can do that, we can reduce our reliance on overseas gas supplies and market volatility.

I'd better shut up now as this is the Starmer and not the energy price thread!

Damien 15-08-2022 10:26

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131291)
They say they are going save households £1,000. but will not give out the £400. So shouldn't that be £600?

Spending borrowed/stolen money is easy, the problem comes with paying it back. Just look at Greece.

Ok but then the cost falls on people.

There is no plan that doesn't involve the Government underwriting the wholesale cost of energy. Give cash to people? Compensate the suppliers for the difference between the current cap and the now frozen new cap? Nationalise the lot and buy the energy passing that onto the consumer at a reduced cost?

All of them involve subsidising the cost of energy. Otherwise we don't and people turn off their heating this winter and even then find they can't afford other things because they're still paying the standing charge.

nomadking 15-08-2022 10:53

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36131296)
We have failed to invest sufficiently in alternatives to importing gas and the Conservative Party which has governed the country for the last 12 years and Ofgen must take a large chunk of responsibility for the situation and change tack.

If we can do that, we can reduce our reliance on overseas gas supplies and market volatility.

Investment requires MONEY to pay for it. So which country has done a better job, and is not having higher prices?
If you're not producing it, you have to import the remainder. No way around that, other than things like fracking. Using UK produced gas doesn't make it cheaper, as it's sold on the international market.
Link

Currently Gas is being used for 49% of electricity. How do you replace that?
Nuclear is 13%, Wind is 3%, Solar 9%. Not a lot of room to expand on non-Gas sources. A five-fold increase in nuclear might just work.
We're importing around 13% of our requirements.

jfman 15-08-2022 12:20

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131299)
Investment requires MONEY to pay for it.

And what’s it costing now? MONEY. Enough money to plough us into a recession.

Chris 15-08-2022 12:28

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131299)
Investment requires MONEY to pay for it.

I’m loath to agree with my lefty friends on here but the fact is, absolute shedloads of taxpayers’ MONEY are being shovelled into the utilities right now, simply to maintain the status quo. This is being done by a Conservative government which on the face of it doesn’t believe in having the activities of utility companies on the national balance sheet. Except that now they are, because they’re inevitably borrowing prodigiously to pay for it. Which of course means it’s actually future taxpayers, a.k.a. our kids, who will in time be paying to keep our lights and our hot water working.

1andrew1 15-08-2022 12:49

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131299)
Investment requires MONEY to pay for it.

I've gone into more depth on the other thread. But with investment, you generally get a return, with the current subsidies and bailing-out of failed energy suppliers you don't.

nomadking 15-08-2022 12:49

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Investment would've increased prices long before now. We would've been paying higher prices for years. Quite separate from current or future costs.

jfman 15-08-2022 13:02

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36131302)
Except that now they are, because they’re inevitably borrowing prodigiously to pay for it. Which of course means it’s actually future taxpayers, a.k.a. our kids, who will in time be paying to keep our lights and our hot water working.

That’s privatisation in a nutshell though. Bringing forward future profits into a one off windfall. The boomers spaffed it up the wall and current younger generations will pay either way. The question is whether to keep the failed system going or acknowledge it for what it is now, and make the investment for the benefit of future generations or not.

Chris 15-08-2022 13:26

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131304)
Investment would've increased prices long before now. We would've been paying higher prices for years. Quite separate from current or future costs.

Bollards.

Investment (if done wisely) facilitates innovation and efficiency, leading to increased profits and, where there is sufficient competition or adequate regulation, lower prices. Consumer electronics are probably the best example of this, as the innovation and efficiency cycle is constant and rapid.

If you’re going to appeal to capitalism at least try to understand how it works.

OLD BOY 15-08-2022 14:47

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36131262)
More concerning for the Conservatives would be this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Ashcroft.html

Just watch the position change when she becomes PM.

I’m sorry, Den - it’s mid-term and many voters don’t really know who Truss is. There is no way Starmer will beat her. Even his own party don’t like him as their Leader.

1andrew1 15-08-2022 14:58

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131327)
There is no way Starmer will beat her.

The current polls say otherwise and she will likely have her term during a recession, to cap matters.

Pierre 15-08-2022 15:37

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
There's an age old saying.

Borrow to Invest is the road to success

Borrow to Spend is the road to the end.

Unfortunately the investing bit should have been done over a decade ago and then maybe we wouldn't be pissing all our cash now.

1andrew1 15-08-2022 15:41

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36131334)
There's an age old saying.

Borrow to Invest is the road to success

Borrow to Spend is the road to the end.

Unfortunately the investing bit should have been done over a decade ago and then maybe we wouldn't be pissing all our cash now.

It should be an on-going process.

nomadking 15-08-2022 15:54

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36131313)
Bollards.

Investment (if done wisely) facilitates innovation and efficiency, leading to increased profits and, where there is sufficient competition or adequate regulation, lower prices. Consumer electronics are probably the best example of this, as the innovation and efficiency cycle is constant and rapid.

If you’re going to appeal to capitalism at least try to understand how it works.

The money invested has to be repaid and, that reduces taxable profits. Eg Amazon is spending so much investing, it takes time to have a taxable profit in the UK. Amazon was making losses for a long time, because of their level of investment.
If you borrow, the capital has to be repaid.
It can take years to see an overall profit from any investment.

Mad Max 15-08-2022 16:02

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
The Tories will regret the day they got rid of Boris.

Chris 15-08-2022 16:10

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131338)
The money invested has to be repaid and, that reduces taxable profits. Eg Amazon is spending so much investing, it takes time to have a taxable profit in the UK. Amazon was making losses for a long time, because of their level of investment.
If you borrow, the capital has to be repaid.
It can take years to see an overall profit from any investment.

Your comments are so riven with basic misapprehension and non-sequiturs it’s hard to conduct any meaningful discussion here. But allow me to try, just one more time.

The whole point of debt financing is that the investment opens an income stream that didn’t previously exist (or radically improves one that did). That new income stream pays off the debt as well as increasing profitability. If it isn’t increasing profit reasonably quickly then in most businesses it isn’t a good investment. In a competitive market (or a properly regulated monopoly) that increased profitability allows the business to operate more competitively by pricing their product or a service more attractively. Thus, to return to consumer electronics as an example, your living room TV costs about half as much (allowing for inflation) as it did 20 years ago. Innovation in a competitive market reduces prices, despite the cost of repaying debt finance.

Companies like Amazon are very good at hiding enormous profits behind constant reinvestment which reduces their tax liability but this is an accounting trick, entirely besides the main point at issue here. They’re shuffling their own money around.

1andrew1 15-08-2022 16:25

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131338)
The money invested has to be repaid and, that reduces taxable profits. Eg Amazon is spending so much investing, it takes time to have a taxable profit in the UK. Amazon was making losses for a long time, because of their level of investment.
If you borrow, the capital has to be repaid.
It can take years to see an overall profit from any investment.

If we follow your model then we will have zero investment and we will have to import 100% of our energy needs which is not practical.

The regulator should ensure that it is worthwhile energy generators investing in generation capacity and this will include the cost of borrowing. To be fair, this has been very low over the last 10 years.

This is not the same as companies like Amazon which have sought to build up global scale very quickly before competitors copied their idea in new markets. They've sacrificed short-term profits for longer-term ones hoping investors will be happy with an increased share price instead of dividends.

nomadking 15-08-2022 16:25

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36131340)
Your comments are so riven with basic misapprehension and non-sequiturs it’s hard to conduct any meaningful discussion here. But allow me to try, just one more time.

The whole point of debt financing is that the investment opens an income stream that didn’t previously exist (or radically improves one that did). That new income stream pays off the debt as well as increasing profitability. If it isn’t increasing profit reasonably quickly then in most businesses it isn’t a good investment. In a competitive market (or a properly regulated monopoly) that increased profitability allows the business to operate more competitively by pricing their product or a service more attractively. Thus, to return to consumer electronics as an example, your living room TV costs about half as much (allowing for inflation) as it did 20 years ago. Innovation in a competitive market reduces prices, despite the cost of repaying debt finance.

Companies like Amazon are very good at hiding enormous profits behind constant reinvestment which reduces their tax liability but this is an accounting trick, entirely besides the main point at issue here. They’re shuffling their own money around.

So Amazon are not building lots of warehouses and delivery networks? They are spending the money.
How long would it take the investment required to build a nuclear power station to be fully recovered?
Quote:

Companies have previously pulled out of plans to build new nuclear reactors - including the one at Wylfa on Anglesey.


These reactors take a lot of time and money to build, so the concern has often been around the financial risk.



jfman 15-08-2022 16:42

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36131334)
There's an age old saying.

Borrow to Invest is the road to success

Borrow to Spend is the road to the end.

Unfortunately the investing bit should have been done over a decade ago and then maybe we wouldn't be pissing all our cash now.

I don’t think that the heavyweights of economic theory would be worrying too much about your fortune cookie economics there Pierre.

That said I do agree with your last point. If only there was a Government we could point to for their failed policies a decade ago.

Chris 15-08-2022 17:14

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36131342)
So Amazon are not building lots of warehouses and delivery networks? They are spending the money.
How long would it take the investment required to build a nuclear power station to be fully recovered?

As I said, non-sequiturs all over the place. I could answer both your points but you’d only put 2 and 2 together and get fishcakes, so I decline to do so.

1andrew1 15-08-2022 17:37

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36131343)
I don’t think that the heavyweights of economic theory would be worrying too much about your fortune cookie economics there Pierre.

That said I do agree with your last point. If only there was a Government we could point to for their failed policies a decade ago.

Sunak and Truss keep on asking the same question too. A shame there's no one they know whom they can ask.

richard-john56 15-08-2022 18:03

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36131339)
The Tories will regret the day they got rid of Boris.

I am waiting for the day we can get rid of the Tories. :D

Pierre 15-08-2022 18:12

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36131343)
I don’t think that the heavyweights of economic theory would be worrying too much about your fortune cookie economics there Pierre.

True, but as economic theories go, it’s one of the most basic. Along with “buy low, sell high” a basic theory that Brown failed to grasp.

1andrew1 15-08-2022 18:18

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36131354)
True, but as economic theories go, it’s one of the most basic. Along with “buy low, sell high” a basic theory that Brown failed to grasp.

You would need to be Captain Hindsight to have known that the price of gold would rise.

jfman 15-08-2022 18:25

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36131354)
True, but as economic theories go, it’s one of the most basic.

I’ll agree, it’s pretty simple largely like the proponents of it.

---------- Post added at 18:25 ---------- Previous post was at 18:23 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36131356)
You would need to be Captain Hindsight to have known that the price of gold would rise.

If you think that’s bad wait til you see the bill for Rishi borrowing and failing to hedge against interest rate rises. It’s slightly more complicated than Pierre’s fortune cookie and Wall Street DVD will offer though.

Paul 15-08-2022 18:32

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36131340)
The whole point of debt financing is that the investment opens an income stream that didn’t previously exist (or radically improves one that did).

We are still talking about water here ?
I'm curious what new (or vastly improved) income streams would new reservoirs have bought the water companies ?
Would we now all be using vastly more water (thus paying more) or would we all just be paying more for the same amount of usage ?
Either way, it just seems like we would be paying more.

Sephiroth 15-08-2022 19:09

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36131287)
Labour's plan announced: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62542541

They're saying freeze the prices as they are now but will part pay for it by scrapping for £400 payments people were going to get over the winter. The other thing that's interesting is that Labour are saying part of it will pay for itself because it'll help control inflation if energy costs are kept down.

That is so fanciful, Iirc, he said that if inflation is brought down, then the interest payments saved will contribute to the bill.

He knows that's political clap-trap. There are non-energy inflationary pressures (wheat for a start) and how does he think the wholesale price og gas will fall? And how is it all going to be paid for other than taxes down the road?




OLD BOY 15-08-2022 19:22

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36131263)
The annoying thing is that Starmer has got to this, potential, position completely by default.

He and Labour have offered nothing, absolutely nothing, in regards to coherent policy and governance.

He/they have this lead purely because the Tory party has monumentally disappeared up it’s own arse.

I agree that I don’t see the Tories winning the next election, regardless of who wins the leadership. I also think that the party is in such a state that whoever wins this leadership contest may not necessarily be the leader come the next election.

I’m off to listen to the Charlie Daniels band whist the flames lick the feet of Westminster Palace.

The Conservatives will win simply because they are the best party out of all of them. Added to that, I think people will be pleasantly surprised with Liz Truss's performance.

Damien 15-08-2022 19:31

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36131365)
That is so fanciful, Iirc, he said that if inflation is brought down, then the interest payments saved will contribute to the bill.

He knows that's political clap-trap. There are non-energy inflationary pressures (wheat for a start) and how does he think the wholesale price og gas will fall? And how is it all going to be paid for other than taxes down the road?


Yeah, the inflation stuff is a bit of wishful thinking. I think that part of it is essentially being added to the debt.

As for what happens later, who knows? But that's the same either way. This would at least take us to next April which means we're at least out of the winter months. Then a new plan would be needed but to be honest unless something happens to bring wholesale prices down we're looking at years of the Government underwriting energy costs.

The Tories might change it a bit but I can't see this not being what the policy will be. The Government simply can't let these energy bills come in. The projected cap is half of a lot of benefit payments. People will die, or not afford food.

Hugh 15-08-2022 19:33

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131366)
The Conservatives will win simply because they are the best party out of all of them. Added to that, I think peoplecwill be pleasantly surprised with Liz Truss's performance.

By 2035?

Chris 15-08-2022 19:36

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36131361)
We are still talking about water here ?
I'm curious what new (or vastly improved) income streams would new reservoirs have bought the water companies ?
Would we now all be using vastly more water (thus paying more) or would we all just be paying more for the same amount of usage ?
Either way, it just seems like we would be paying more.

In the context of a utility such as a water company potential ‘income streams’ might be increased profit due to reduced wastage or avoidance of regulatory penalties arising from missed targets.

OLD BOY 15-08-2022 20:15

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36131368)
By 2035?

I doubt that she will last that long, but maybe I’m underestimating her.

Hugh 15-08-2022 20:31

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131376)
I doubt that she will last that long, but maybe I’m underestimating her.

tbf, you have form on getting the length of serving PM’s term of office wrong… ;)

1andrew1 15-08-2022 20:33

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131366)
The Conservatives will win simply because they are the best party out of all of them. Added to that, I think people will be pleasantly surprised with Liz Truss's performance.

The Conservatives are burnt out and left with second rate talent. That's due to their being in power for 12 years and purges of Remainers.

We know Truss's form and can't see it improving. She's another Johnson without the charm and humour and her term is projected to see a recession.

Hugh 15-08-2022 20:35

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36131371)
In the context of a utility such as a water company potential ‘income streams’ might be increased profit due to reduced wastage or avoidance of regulatory penalties arising from missed targets.

Or avoidance of penalties and payment for dumping waste into waterways illegally…

https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/pn-12-19-so...investigation/

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/t...wage-discharge

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/o...s-b986921.html

Pierre 15-08-2022 21:24

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36131356)
You would need to be Captain Hindsight to have known that the price of gold would rise.

The price of gold is like the price of bricks, it may fluctuate but ultimately it’ll never be cheaper than the day you buy.

So I wholeheartedly disagree.

---------- Post added at 21:24 ---------- Previous post was at 21:23 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36131358)
I’ll agree, it’s pretty simple largely like the proponents of it.

Credit where credit is due, for a bedwetter such as yourself, that was funny.

Damien 15-08-2022 21:55

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36131387)
The price of gold is like the price of bricks, it may fluctuate but ultimately it’ll never be cheaper than the day you buy.

Opportunity cost though. The value of that gold investing in an index fund that tracks the overall stock market would likely increase more than the value of gold.

Gold tends to go up in uncertain times and down when the economy recovers but it's doesn't really increase that much over a longer time period.

Paul 15-08-2022 23:54

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
2 Attachment(s)
Are you sure ?

https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1660603621

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1660603992

Its been a pretty good investment since the early 2000's.

Prior to that it was reasonably steady since the start of the 1980's

TheDaddy 16-08-2022 02:46

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131366)
The Conservatives will win simply because they are the best party out of all of them. Added to that, I think people will be pleasantly surprised with Liz Truss's performance.

You sound like Gavin Williamson now, I'm not surprised as we're a better country than every single one of them, aren't we?

OLD BOY 17-08-2022 20:30

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36131381)
tbf, you have form on getting the length of serving PM’s term of office wrong… ;)

So you think she’ll still be PM after 2035?

That’s reassuring.

Hugh 17-08-2022 20:34

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131552)
So you think she’ll still be PM after 2035?

That’s reassuring.

Once again, you misinterpret a statement…

OLD BOY 17-08-2022 20:37

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36131382)
The Conservatives are burnt out and left with second rate talent..

Nonsense, Andrew. There is no better alternative, as you well know.

What on Earth makes you think Starmer and his motley crew will ever get elected? I think you are quite possibly hallucinating.

---------- Post added at 20:37 ---------- Previous post was at 20:34 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36131407)
You sound like Gavin Williamson now, I'm not surprised as we're a better country than every single one of them, aren't we?

I was talking about the best political party, not the best country.

Not that I am denying we’re the best country to live in. :D

Mr K 17-08-2022 20:41

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131555)
Nonsense, Andrew. There is no better alternative, as you well know.

What on Earth makes you think Starmer and his motley crew will ever get elected? I think you are quite possibly hallucinating.

Maybe he's just seen the opinion polls and the utterly desperate state this nation is in? And then the prospect of Truss, even her Thatcher impersonation is poor.

The 'Boris continuity candidate' says all we need to know about the Tories demise.

OLD BOY 17-08-2022 20:43

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36131554)
Once again, you misinterpret a statement…

Maybe you should learn to be less vague so we know what you are actually trying to say, Hugh!

Margaret Thatcher was the most popular PM since Churchill, but she only got through three elections. If Truss won two on the trot, she would be doing pretty well, particularly as Labour have been out of office for 12 years already.

Mind you, I think Labour will have an uphill battle in trying to win another election in my Grandkids’ lifetimes unless they make substantial changes that sound attractive to the population.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:42 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36131557)
Maybe he's just seen the opinion polls and the utterly desperate state this nation is in? And then the prospect of Truss, even her Thatcher impersonation is poor.

The 'Boris continuity candidate' says all we need to know about the Tories demise.

You wish.

Hugh 17-08-2022 20:54

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
"If" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there…

The last two Tory PMs lasted less than three years each…

Since the only Tory PM to win more than one election since Thatcher was Cameron (who is as different from Truss as chalk and cheese), and no Tory PM besides Thatcher and Cameron has won more than one Election consecutively, you may being a trifle optimistic…

1andrew1 17-08-2022 22:57

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131555)
Nonsense, Andrew. There is no better alternative, as you well know.

What on Earth makes you think Starmer and his motley crew will ever get elected? I think you are quite possibly hallucinating.

It's not about what I think the best alternative to Truss is, it's what the electorate think. And the polls here point to Starmer. Things might indeed change over the next couple of years but Truss will not inherit an economy in a good state - high borrowing, high inflation, high fuel prices and a high number of strikes. And as she knows only too well, the one thing not high about the economy is its productivity and Brexit is exasperating that.

---------- Post added at 22:57 ---------- Previous post was at 22:54 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36131566)
"If" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there…

The last two Tory PMs lasted less than three years each…

Since the only Tory PM to win more than one election since Thatcher was Cameron (who is as different from Truss as chalk and cheese), and no Tory PM besides Thatcher and Cameron has won more than one Election consecutively, you may being a trifle optimistic…

Comical Old Boy. A trifle optimistic? Never. Wildly optimistic? Always. :D

OLD BOY 18-08-2022 09:19

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36131574)
It's not about what I think the best alternative to Truss is, it's what the electorate think. And the [URL="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-prefer-boris-johnson-sunak-27736614"]polls here point to Starmer.

That's right, it's about what the electorate think, but as you know, the opinions of the electorate can be extremely volatile. You also know that governments are rarely doing well at mid-term.

People don't seem to be clamouring for Starmer from where I stand, they are instead protesting about partygate. The Covid years are still very raw in some people's minds.

A lot can change in one year, let alone two. That's the nature of politics.

---------- Post added at 09:19 ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36131574)
Things might indeed change over the next couple of years but Truss will not inherit an economy in a good state - high borrowing, high inflation, high fuel prices and a high number of strikes. And as she knows only too well, the one thing not high about the economy is its productivity and Brexit is exasperating that.

You are right about the economy not being in a good state, and we all know why, don't we? Even if we are not functioning on all cylinders by 2024, if the electorate can see that Liz has put in place the right measures for recovery and they can actually see it taking place - then they compare her with the other lot - well, I think the outcome is obvious.

If she fails, we are probably back to the coalition days. Labour cannot win outright.

Funny you should mention productivity - I was scoffed at for mentioning the British Disease, but even you know that our workforce need to up their game if Britain is to succeed. You've pretty well just said so yourself.

Brexit is only causing problems in the short term. We are in transition. Liz is pledged to scrap the more bureaucratic of the EU Regulations that are hampering business.

Sephiroth 18-08-2022 09:24

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131581)
That's right, it's about what the electorate think, but as you know, the opinions of the electorate can be extremely volatile. You also know that governments are rarely doing well at mid-term.

People don't seem to be clamouring for Starmer from where I stand, they are instead protesting about partygate. The Covid years are still very raw in some people's minds.

A lot can change in one year, let alone two. That's the nature of politics.

A decently led government, executing its programme. should be doing well mid-term. It's no use trotting out the usual excuses for this failed shower.

I agree with the rest of your post.


---------- Post added at 09:24 ---------- Previous post was at 09:20 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131581)
That's right, it's about what the electorate think, but as you know, the opinions of the electorate can be extremely volatile. You also know that governments are rarely doing well at mid-term.

People don't seem to be clamouring for Starmer from where I stand, they are instead protesting about partygate. The Covid years are still very raw in some people's minds.

A lot can change in one year, let alone two. That's the nature of politics.

---------- Post added at 09:19 ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 ----------



You are right about the economy not being in a good state, and we all know why, don't we? Even if we are not functioning on all cylinders by 2024, if the electorate can see that Liz has put in place the right measures for recovery and they can actually see it taking place - then they compare her with the other lot - well, I think the outcome is obvious.

If she fails, we are probably back to the coalition days. Labour cannot win outright.

Funny you should mention productivity - I was scoffed at for mentioning the British Disease, but even you know that our workforce need to up their game if Britain is to succeed. You've pretty well just said so yourself.

Brexit is only causing problems in the short term. We are in transition. Liz is pledged to scrap the more bureaucratic of the EU Regulations that are hampering business.

Productivity is a very difficult matter. What is meant by that? A financial comparison between countries of GP vs the number of workers? The ratio of civil servants to real workers? What are real workers? Bricklayers? Carpet fitters? Car factory workers? The answer seems to me that we should build our own wind turbines, make our own washing machines, etc and export them - for example.

OLD BOY 18-08-2022 09:30

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36131586)


A decently led government, executing its programme. should be doing well mid-term. It's no use trotting out the usual excuses for this failed shower.

I agree with the rest of your post.

Governments are normally at their least popular by mid-term, mainly because their most unpopular policies are implemented first.

The Johnson government failed in the eyes of the electorate not with the implementation of its policies but because of partygate.

---------- Post added at 09:30 ---------- Previous post was at 09:25 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36131586)
A decently led government, executing its programme. should be doing well mid-term. It's no use trotting out the usual excuses for this failed shower.

I agree with the rest of your post.


---------- Post added at 09:24 ---------- Previous post was at 09:20 ----------



Productivity is a very difficult matter. What is meant by that? A financial comparison between countries of GP vs the number of workers? The ratio of civil servants to real workers? What are real workers? Bricklayers? Carpet fitters? Car factory workers? The answer seems to me that we should build our own wind turbines, make our own washing machines, etc and export them - for example.

It's all of these things and more. You forgot to mention the railways, for example, with the unions putting their foot down at every sniff of modernisation.

I'm a bit surprised that you questioned me on this, Seph. You must know we can do better.

ianch99 18-08-2022 09:30

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36131586)
Productivity is a very difficult matter. What is meant by that? A financial comparison between countries of GP vs the number of workers? The ratio of civil servants to real workers? What are real workers? Bricklayers? Carpet fitters? Car factory workers? The answer seems to me that we should build our own wind turbines, make our own washing machines, etc and export them - for example.

I saw this quote relating to who owns the UK wind infra:

Quote:

Only 0.07% of UK offshore wind is owned by the UK state, almost 50% is owned by state owned companies of other countries.
Can this be true?

(apologies for off topic but context is relevant)

Pierre 18-08-2022 09:53

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36131591)
I saw this quote relating to who owns the UK wind infra:



Can this be true?

(apologies for off topic but context is relevant)

Offshore Wind is usually consortiums, Orsted, RWE, Vattenfall, Eon, Scottish Power and SSE are all players in the UK market. They own the turbines and interarray cables, you then have the OFTO's, these own the transmission export cables that carry the electricity from the windarm to the grid connection.

The UK own the seabed they're sat on. The Crown Estate take % for that.

GrimUpNorth 18-08-2022 10:02

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131589)
Governments are normally at their least popular by mid-term, mainly because their most unpopular policies are implemented first.

The Johnson government failed in the eyes of the electorate not with the implementation of its policies but because of partygate.

---------- Post added at 09:30 ---------- Previous post was at 09:25 ----------



It's all of these things and more. You forgot to mention the railways, for example, with the unions putting their foot down at every sniff of modernisation.

I'm a bit surprised that you questioned me on this, Seph. You must know we can do better.

Sorry Old Boy, the Johnson government didn't fail because of partygate, it failed because Boris Johnson is a compulsive liar, he just can't help himself and feels the PM job description should be short and sweet, saying "Do whatever you want". He then surrounded himself with a bunch of back stabbing sycophants who like him are only in it for themselves. No normal people were surprised when it all unraveled for him and the speed it happened.

Trust me when I say this - this current bunch you laughing call Conservatives / a government wouldn't think twice about kicking even you one of their most hardened supporters in the nads if they thought it would give them the advantage, and it's such a shame that you've been sucked in by them.

OLD BOY 18-08-2022 13:19

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 36131601)
Sorry Old Boy, the Johnson government didn't fail because of partygate, it failed because Boris Johnson is a compulsive liar, he just can't help himself and feels the PM job description should be short and sweet, saying "Do whatever you want". He then surrounded himself with a bunch of back stabbing sycophants who like him are only in it for themselves. No normal people were surprised when it all unraveled for him and the speed it happened.

Trust me when I say this - this current bunch you laughing call Conservatives / a government wouldn't think twice about kicking even you one of their most hardened supporters in the nads if they thought it would give them the advantage, and it's such a shame that you've been sucked in by them.

Sorry, Grim, that’s the myth spread by the lefties. People already knew what Boris was like. They voted him in because they liked the manifesto and believed he could deliver Brexit.

It was Partygate that brought the house down, and if you track the opinion polls, they confirm this. That is the point that his ratings went down.

1andrew1 18-08-2022 13:38

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131581)
You are right about the economy not being in a good state, and we all know why, don't we? Even if we are not functioning on all cylinders by 2024, if the electorate can see that Liz has put in place the right measures for recovery and they can actually see it taking place - then they compare her with the other lot - well, I think the outcome is obvious.

If she fails, we are probably back to the coalition days. Labour cannot win outright.

Funny you should mention productivity - I was scoffed at for mentioning the British Disease, but even you know that our workforce need to up their game if Britain is to succeed. You've pretty well just said so yourself.

Brexit is only causing problems in the short term. We are in transition. Liz is pledged to scrap the more bureaucratic of the EU Regulations that are hampering business.

The economy is not in a good place currently due to a toxic mix of Brexit, Covid and Energy prices. How much weight we attribute to each factor doubtless differs.

I've never scoffed at anyone for calling out the country's poor productivity but you can't just criticise those outside London for being less productive, and I say that as a Londoner. Solving it has eluded every government in my time although the entry of the country into the European Single Market did see great gains in British companies' productivity as the stronger companies thrived and the weak went under.

---------- Post added at 13:38 ---------- Previous post was at 13:36 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131629)
Sorry, Grim, that’s the myth spread by the lefties. People already knew what Boris was like. They voted him in because they liked the manifesto and believed he could deliver Brexit.

It was Partygate that brought the house down, and if you track the opinion polls, they confirm this. That is the point that his ratings went down.

He was unpopular before Partygate due to his perceived dishonesty and croneyism. He only got elected because the choice was him or Corbyn.

OLD BOY 18-08-2022 13:51

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36131633)
The economy is not in a good place currently due to a toxic mix of Brexit, Covid and Energy prices. How much weight we attribute to each factor doubtless differs.

I've never scoffed at anyone for calling out the country's poor productivity but you can't just criticise those outside London for being less productive, and I say that as a Londoner. Solving it has eluded every government in my time although the entry of the country into the European Single Market did see great gains in British companies' productivity as the stronger companies thrived and the weak went under.

---------- Post added at 13:38 ---------- Previous post was at 13:36 ----------


He was unpopular before Partygate due to his perceived dishonesty and croneyism. He only got elected because the choice was him or Corbyn.

I agree with you about that toxic mix.


It is true that Boris was unpopular with the left. They knew Labour would never get back with him as PM. The rest of us were more concerned with the bigger picture.

But then came the gift of partygate.

Paul 18-08-2022 14:17

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131555)
What on Earth makes you think Starmer and his motley crew will ever get elected?

Well no one can say what the situation will be at election time.
However, atm, labour are in front because the conservatives have pressed self destruct.
I sure as hell hope they dont win, but atm, they are favourites to do so.

Chris 18-08-2022 14:48

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131555)
What on Earth makes you think Starmer and his motley crew will ever get elected?

I’ll have a go at answering this too …

Starmer and his crew can now very easily get elected for the same reason Blair and his crew got elected in 1997 despite the economy being in good health and people generally feeling prosperous and positive about the future.

The Parliamentary Tory Party looked worn out, bereft of ideas and more interested in taking bribes and shagging their mistresses (and each other) than in governing the country.

Boris Johnson won a majority so big at the last election that all the pundits said it would take Labour 2 further elections to overturn it. But ever since then Boris Johnson has acted in bad faith, with utter disdain for those whom he governs. It doesn’t matter if inflation is under control and taxes are low, come the next election; sleaze can lose you the vote and right now the Tories, mostly though not entirely through BJ, are mired in it.

Despite what we all know about mid-term polling, Starmer and Labour do now have a fighting chance of at the very least, creating a hung parliament which no Tory prime minister could control. So much now depends on who takes over the Tories, how Starmer performs and who appears to be waiting in the wings to succeed him.

1andrew1 18-08-2022 14:49

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131639)
I agree with you about that toxic mix.

It is true that Boris was unpopular with the left. They knew Labour would never get back with him as PM. The rest of us were more concerned with the bigger picture.

But then came the gift of partygate.

Johnson was becoming unpopular with the public before Partygate.

Why? Not a left or right thing , he was just seen to want to act above the law, and to have an uncomfortable relationship with the truth. Look at Owen Paterson who breached lobbying rules for MPs by meeting with two companies. Instead of following protocol and suspending him, Johnson suggested changing the rules thereby allowing Paterson to continue as MP. This went down badly with the British public and ultimately Paterson resigned.

The last straw for Johnson were the allegations against Chris Pincher, who had been appointed deputy chief whip. Johnson initially denied being aware of complaints against Pincher only for it to become clear that he had in fact been aware of the allegations before the appointment.

I've not even covered the scandals of Partygate, PPE procurement and the discharge of patients with Covid into nursing homes.

GrimUpNorth 18-08-2022 15:01

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131629)
Sorry, Grim, that’s the myth spread by the lefties. People already knew what Boris was like. They voted him in because they liked the manifesto and believed he could deliver Brexit.

It was Partygate that brought the house down, and if you track the opinion polls, they confirm this. That is the point that his ratings went down.

I can't believe you don't see it. It wasn't partygate that brought down the PM, it was the continual lying and the ducking and diving. If it wasn't the cake that ambushed him it would have been something else because Boris is not capable of holding his hands up and admitting he was in the wrong and got caught. His downfall was his own doing because of a general inability to tell the truth, coupled with stupidly thinking people would believe whatever that day's excuse was, and all mixed with a good dollop of arrogance.

1andrew1 18-08-2022 15:29

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 36131666)
I can't believe you don't see it. It wasn't partygate that brought down the PM, it was the continual lying and the ducking and diving. If it wasn't the cake that ambushed him it would have been something else because Boris is not capable of holding his hands up and admitting he was in the wrong and got caught. His downfall was his own doing because of a general inability to tell the truth, coupled with stupidly thinking people would believe whatever that day's excuse was, and all mixed with a good dollop of arrogance.

The final nail in the coffin was not the Partygate scandal but the Chris Pincher scandal.

Chris 18-08-2022 15:31

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Folks, the topic drift has gone too far for me to start weeding out posts, but can we please now return to the topic, which is Sir Keir Starmer and his leadership of Labour.

This means please STOP debating Boris Johnson, Partygate and all other Tory party issues here. There are plenty of other open threads for that.

spiderplant 18-08-2022 15:32

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Partygate was just the icing on the cake

GrimUpNorth 18-08-2022 23:36

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
As Liz described Keir's suggestions for dealing with energy price rises as a 'sticking plaster', I wonder what she's going to do as a long-term cure?

Mods: not sure if this should be here or the energy crises, or the Boris thread - feel free to move it if you want!

Paul 19-08-2022 01:17

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
I cant be bothered to move it, but future posts on the topic probably belong in the energy topic. :)

jfman 19-08-2022 07:48

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36131629)
Sorry, Grim, that’s the myth spread by the lefties. People already knew what Boris was like. They voted him in because they liked the manifesto and believed he could deliver Brexit.

It was Partygate that brought the house down, and if you track the opinion polls, they confirm this. That is the point that his ratings went down.

:rofl:

He’d have gotten away with it too if it wasn’t for those pesky kids.

On a technical point the vast, vast, majority of the British population didn’t vote for Boris Johnson at all. He stands in one constituency only.

You say it was because of “partygate”, but the fact he’s a compulsive liar and partygate aren’t mutually exclusive concepts. It’s when it became obvious that he’d lie to the public, and laugh at them while doing so, which is an entirely different proposition than lying through incompetence and/or corruption. It was also when the Government collapsed into a black hole of it”s own ineptitude, lacking both the capability and moral authority to govern at all.

All of the above has nothing to do with “lefties”. You’re simply on such hollow ground it’s a lazy retort to save you from looking at what’s staring you in the face. They’re laughing at you Old Boy. You’re in our camp, not theirs.

Chris 10-10-2023 21:59

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
On this afternoon’s glitter-bombing at the Labour conference …

I was in Liverpool today. Our open-top bus tour was momentarily held up by Keir Starmer arriving at Albert Dock under police escort. Security was absolutely everywhere. Police were even floating around the dock network in boats.

So how the heck did a numpty not only get on the stage, but also remain there more than long enough to have inflicted fatal injuries on Starmer, had that been his intent? The security response in the hall was pathetically slow.

Though I took some satisfaction in the fact that when the numpty was brought to the ground and dragged away it was two women doing the tackling and dragging. You’ve gotta love Liverpool. :D

ianch99 10-10-2023 23:21

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
It is interesting to contrast the Tory and Labour conferences. Labour seem confident in their ability to win power at the GE. The Tories are just UKIP now which will erode a lot of the traditional "Blue Wall" base. Sort of double whammy ...

If I was a Tory donor who sold dodgy PPE and received millions, I'd be looking for good lawyers. About time too ...

Ms NTL 10-10-2023 23:24

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36161745)

If I was a Tory donor who sold dodgy PPE and received millions, I'd be looking for good lawyers. About time too ...

:D

OLD BOY 11-10-2023 16:20

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Starmer conducted himself well at the conference and seemed to be in the right place in terms of the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Not much detail yet of course - the manifesto will be an interesting read. I wonder if he can get the balance right?

So far, he’s avoided the difficult questions.

1andrew1 11-10-2023 16:36

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
14 actual policies were announced!
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...eacd2b1a&ei=10

Pierre 11-10-2023 16:49

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
I don’t trust Labour, I don’t like that they win by default, i think their front bench is weak.

But, as it’s inevitable, I can think of worse things than four years or so of Starmer.

It will be very interesting to see what kind of majority they get, if indeed they get one. They’ll certainly be the biggest party.

A collapse of the SNP will see them to a majority.

TheDaddy 11-10-2023 17:24

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36161778)
I don’t trust Labour, I don’t like that they win by default, i think their front bench is weak.

But, as it’s inevitable, I can think of worse things than four years or so of Starmer.

It will be very interesting to see what kind of majority they get, if indeed they get one. They’ll certainly be the biggest party.

A collapse of the SNP will see them to a majority.

Best thing imo would be a coalition where pr is on the table, we all might have a vote that counts then, for a change

1andrew1 11-10-2023 18:01

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36161785)
Best thing imo would be a coalition where pr is on the table, we all might have a vote that counts then, for a change

Agreed.

I can't see Starmer having just the one term. The Conservatives will need several years to rebuild and find their mojo.

denphone 11-10-2023 18:50

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36161793)
Agreed.

I can't see Starmer having just the one term. The Conservatives will need several years to rebuild and find their mojo.

The Conservatives need to move back to the centre as that is where the most votes are to be had.

Even that staunch Tory grandee Max Hastings has declared his support for Starmer now.

OLD BOY 11-10-2023 21:49

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36161793)
Agreed.

I can't see Starmer having just the one term. The Conservatives will need several years to rebuild and find their mojo.

It took just one term of government to turn a hopeless situation into a 20% majority for Labour.

So it is perfectly possible that if the SNP vote collapsed, the Conservatives could regain control in just one Parliament.

Mind you, they need a decent leader to achieve that. Sunak isn’t it.

---------- Post added at 21:49 ---------- Previous post was at 21:48 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36161797)
The Conservatives need to move back to the centre as that is where the most votes are to be had.

Even that staunch Tory grandee Max Hastings has declared his support for Starmer now.

No, the other direction, but with a good leader.

Hugh 11-10-2023 21:54

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36161818)
It took just one term of government to turn a hopeless situation into a 20% majority for Labour.

So it is perfectly possible that if the SNP vote collapsed, the Conservatives could regain control in just one Parliament.

Mind you, they need a decent leader to achieve that. Sunak isn’t it.

"One term"… :D

(Old Boy effectively ignores the fiascos of the Johnson and Truss Governments, or the fact that the May Government was propped up by the DUP in 2017, as the Tories didn’t have a majority…)

daveeb 11-10-2023 22:01

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36161785)
Best thing imo would be a coalition where pr is on the table, we all might have a vote that counts then, for a change

Succinct and spot on :tu:


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