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Dave42 25-07-2018 21:24

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
EU and USA trade deal in negotiations

1andrew1 25-07-2018 23:05

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35956512)
The EU aren't saying they're going to stop selling us food or medicine.

The Government is worried about chaos at the ports physically bringing goods into the country. If he have hastily arranged customs checks then delays would be the problem. I think can just wave things though. As far as I can work out the Government don't actually know what the hell they're going to do so are saying they're stockpiling stuff to be 'reassuring'.

You can generally buy whatever you want from other countries if it's legal there, the issue is if it's legal here.

Agreed. There does seem to be quite little understanding of what no deal actually means. Carol Mortishead in today's Standard has a good attempt at clarifying some aspects of it.
Quote:

Let’s be absolutely clear: walking out (“no deal”) is an English fantasy. It means chaos at UK airports and the Channel ports (the Government is already preparing to commandeer the M26 as a lorry park), chaos that will mean big financial losses for British exporters and importers.

Raab might say the EU will lose too. Indeed, they will lose but the 27 remaining states will carry on trading with each other and the world while the UK is gridlocked in a very expensive mire. And while Britain struggles with paperwork and lorry parks, will European businesses sit on their hands or will they rush to steal Britain’s customers in Europe and around the world?

The UK’s “no deal” trading arrangements will be tough and, initially, very uncertain. Under the WTO rules, Britain must apply the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) principle. It means you cannot offer one state a special tariff without offering it to all WTO members.

Average EU external tariffs are quite low (1.5%) but on certain important sectors are very high, in particular cars, about 10%. The Government would hope to agree a special deal on cars but the EU will never agree because it would have to offer that special tariff to every other WTO member state to satisfy the MFN rule. A tariff of 10% on cars would be ruinous in an industry where profit margins on new cars vary between 4% and 8%.

Walking out of the EU would be disastrous for industry and for agriculture, too, a sector at present protected by billions of euros of EU subsidy.

For example, sheep farmers benefit from the EU’s high external tariff of 12% plus €1700 (£1500) per tonne on lamb. Without a deal, UK farmers will face that tariff on exports of lamb to Europe. If we scrap tariffs in order to do overseas trade deals, cheap New Zealand lamb will flood the domestic market and Britain’s hill farmers will face ruin.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/...-a3896096.html

pip08456 26-07-2018 00:12

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35956538)
Agreed. There does seem to be quite little understanding of what no deal actually means. Carol Mortishead in today's Standard has a good attempt at clarifying some aspects of it.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/...-a3896096.html

According to Carol there is no such thing as MFN, how can there be? If Most Favoured Nation has to be offered to all WTO members then what's the point in having it?

heero_yuy 26-07-2018 09:03

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Quote from The Express:


The 2017 NatCen British Social Attitudes Survey, whose results have just been released, questioned 3,988 at the end of last year on what they believe it is like to live in Britain and how they think the country is run.

More than a third (36 percent) of interviewees at the time the poll was conducted wanted to leave the EU - which is up from 22 percent in the research from 2015.

The rise in support for leaving the EU has not been accompanied by increased concern about the implications of EU membership or greater optimism about the consequences of exiting the bloc, the research found.
So contrary to the remainers at CF claiming leavers are regretting their vote support for Brexit is hardening.

Mr K 26-07-2018 10:18

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35956560)
So contrary to the remainers at CF claiming leavers are regretting their vote support for Brexit is hardening.

Wouldn't take much notice of selective polls from the Express. Most reliable polls are showing a shift against Brexit

Quote:

This Saturday marks two years since the EU referendum. The first of several pieces of legislation necessary to enable the UK to leave the European Union has now passed the Commons, the Brexit negotiations in Europe are making slow progress, but where does public opinion stand?

The overall picture is a negative one. Slightly more of the British public think that voting to leave the EU was wrong for Britain than think it was the right decision, and on most measures more people expect it will have a negative than a positive impact.

On top of this, a large majority think that the government is doing badly at negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. People aren’t clear what either of the main parties really thinks about Brexit and don’t much support either Theresa May’s or Jeremy Corbyn’s stances towards Europe.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/06/23...dum-two-years/

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2018/07/31.png

Damien 26-07-2018 10:20

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35956560)
So contrary to the remainers at CF claiming leavers are regretting their vote support for Brexit is hardening.

That poll has taken 2015 as a baseline. If you wanted to judge if people have changed since the vote (2016) you would need to take that as a baseline.

papa smurf 26-07-2018 10:24

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35956538)
Agreed. There does seem to be quite little understanding of what no deal actually means. Carol Mortishead in today's Standard has a good attempt at clarifying some aspects of it.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/...-a3896096.html

I must congratulate you on your ability to find doom and gloom brexit story's, are you going for a world record attempt .

Pierre 26-07-2018 16:53

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35956571)
Wouldn't take much notice of selective polls from the Express. Most reliable polls are showing a shift against Brexit


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/06/23...dum-two-years/

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2018/07/32.png

I don't understand, after they way they have been acting, why anyone would think that the EU is a great thing to be a part of.

The original idea of leaving the EU single market and CU and re-establishing a new relationship via a FTA should have been a simple thing to arrange.

Simple because all the rules, regulations and standards the EU require goods and services to meet, we already adhere to.

But the EU want to make sure that Brexit is not a success, they want to ensure we are shackled to their courts and institutions and most importantly they want to ensure that we still pay into their budgets. Which is why they are playing the political game they are.

For the record, I voted remain not because of any love of the EU but because, pragmatically, I knew that we would end up still shackled to the EU, I new we'd end up accepting their Rules and Regs and paying into their budget, but not being at the table as a member. So what was the point in leaving?

And it looks I have been proven right.

Personally, I would walk away. It would be an economic shock, we don't know how bad.. or good. But we would recover, and I bet an FTA would be sorted out very quickly when lots of European suppliers realised that their products just got a whole more expensive to one of their biggest markets, who could now go elsewhere for cheaper alternatives.

The EU are not strong. Trump just wacked on a load of high tariffs, threatened a trade war and what did they do? Well they tried to retaliate by putting tariffs on Harleys etc but then Trump just threatened putting tariffs on all EU cars and within a week or two Junkers was over there saying they'll scrap tariffs on a lots of goods.

Quote:

Following his White House talks, and after his news conference with Mr Trump, Mr Juncker claimed a "major concession" from the US president was a promise not to increase tariffs on cars and auto parts during negotiations.
quote from Sky news.

You can say what you want about Trump, but he has a backbone and doesn't care who he upsets, but he got the result he wanted.

I would have thought we buy as many French, Spanish, Italian and especially German cars than the USA does.....................

I wish our leaders had any backbone

Damien 26-07-2018 17:08

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35956666)
But the EU want to make sure that Brexit is not a success, they want to ensure we are shackled to their courts and institutions and most importantly they want to ensure that we still pay into their budgets. Which is why they are playing the political game they are.

They want that if we want to stay in the customs union or a variation of it and that was our suggestion. Their own suggestion, a Canada style deal, would not require it.

jonbxx 26-07-2018 18:04

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Good news for no deal fans where we simply fall back to WTO schedules - we have submitted our proposed tarifff schedule to the WTO a couple of days ago. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/n..._24jul18_e.htm

If there are no objections in three months, they will be accepted. If there are, negotiations will start between member countries

Damien 26-07-2018 18:22

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
EU has rejected May’s idea anyway. I guess it now depends if the Government want a FTA or attempt to delay the article 50 deadline to continue to try and get a bespoke one.

---------- Post added at 18:22 ---------- Previous post was at 18:09 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35956666)
The EU are not strong. Trump just wacked on a load of high tariffs, threatened a trade war and what did they do? Well they tried to retaliate by putting tariffs on Harleys etc but then Trump just threatened putting tariffs on all EU cars and within a week or two Junkers was over there saying they'll scrap tariffs on a lots of goods.

They said both sides would work towards scrapping tariffs. They really just paused the trade war. Although there are some suggestions they might use that as a basis to revisit the EU-US trade deal. The US and the EU are both pretty strong. The US is the biggest economy in the world (followed by the EU). We can’t throw our weight around in the same way.

Dave42 26-07-2018 18:42

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35956676)
Good news for no deal fans where we simply fall back to WTO schedules - we have submitted our proposed tarifff schedule to the WTO a couple of days ago. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/n..._24jul18_e.htm

If there are no objections in three months, they will be accepted. If there are, negotiations will start between member countries

can tell us if it no deal which is very likely what only country in world will be will 0 trade deals how can anyone want this is unbelievable

papa smurf 26-07-2018 18:49

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 35956686)
can tell us if it no deal which is very likely what only country in world will be will 0 trade deals how can anyone want this is unbelievable

You need to get out of that remainer bubble ,think of the opportunities ;)

Dave42 26-07-2018 18:52

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35956687)
You need to get out of that remainer bubble ,think of the opportunities ;)

aye falling of cliff edge is gonna be great NOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT sheshhhhhhhhhhhh why you think we stock piling food medicine and blood for sheshhhhhhh

and see you avoided the question what be only country in world with 0 trade deals

papa smurf 26-07-2018 18:56

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 35956688)
aye falling of cliff edge is gonna be great NOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT sheshhhhhhhhhhhh why you think we stock piling food medicine and blood for sheshhhhhhh

and see you avoided the question what be only country in world with 0 trade deals

We could get new customer discounts ;)

Hugh 26-07-2018 19:42

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35956689)
We could get new customer discounts ;)

Probably our best hope...

1andrew1 27-07-2018 07:54

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35956680)
E The US is the biggest economy in the world (followed by the EU). We can’t throw our weight around in the same way.

Exactly. Size matters in trade negotiations but some seem to rank all countries equally like two players in a game of draughts.

Mr K 27-07-2018 08:26

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Saw a lot of unhappy punters queuing outside the Chunnel yesterday (for weather reasons). The Great British public had better get used to that, and it won't be weather related, however it's what they wanted !

Mick 27-07-2018 11:14

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
That’s just typical fear mongering bullshit at it’s finest Mr K. People can still sail or fly, to Europe destinations, or go elsewhere in the world, there are far better places than Europe. They won’t suddenly stop Brits going there, that’s economic suicide for them.

It’s totally expected that Remainers that have never accepted the referendum result, will step up their scaremongering strategies, with bollocks about the need to stockpile food and medicine and demonstrate false narratives that are purely designed to cause panic.

Anybody would wonder how the hell we managed back prior to joining the bloc back in the 70s. We did just fine, then we made a catastrophic decision to join the union that has handicapped us as well as fleece us, for over 40 years, no bloody more!

Damien 27-07-2018 11:35

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35956762)
That’s just typical fear mongering bullshit at it’s finest Mr K. People can still sail or fly, to Europe destinations, or go elsewhere in the world, there are far better places than Europe. They won’t suddenly stop Brits going there, that’s economic suicide for them.

Which parts of Europe have you been too? There are some extraordinary cities and locations in Europe. There are great places in other parts of the world too but Europe is rich with top places to go, it's got some of the oldest civilizations there - at least Western ones. Munich Beer Halls, Norwegian fjords whilst drinking beer, Budapest food (and beer). Paris. Haven't actually been to Rome but I am sure that's cool.

The issue with the channel will be how all these structures work. I imagine we'll be able to go into Europe without a visa, I am not sure how customs checks will work or how the flight area works. We can get agreements for all of this but you're on the one advocating we don't do a deal.

Quote:

Anybody would wonder how the hell we managed back prior to joining the bloc back in the 70s. We did just fine, then we made a catastrophic decision to join the union that has handicapped us as well as fleece us, for over 40 years, no bloody more!
Since then we've built up many ties and built infrastructure within how the EU works. I.E No customs checks, agreements on flights and tons of regulation. We're now talking about just stopping that suddenly. 40+ years worth of work is not easily dismantled and replaced in 2 years.

Mick 27-07-2018 11:53

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35956774)
Which parts of Europe have you been too? There are some extraordinary cities and locations in Europe. There are great places in other parts of the world too but Europe is rich with top places to go, it's got some of the oldest civilizations there - at least Western ones.

The issue with the channel will be how all these structures work. I imagine we'll be able to go into Europe without a visa, I am not sure how customs checks will work or how the flight area works. We can get agreements for all of this but you're on the one advocating we don't do a deal.

Which parts of Europe I have been to is irrelevant. You're doing that thing again, inventing things up I have never said. I never said there is no where decent to go in Europe, I said there is better places to go, than Europe and that is a factual analysis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien
Since then we've built up many ties and built infrastructure within how the EU works. I.E No customs checks, agreements on flights and tons of regulation. We're now talking about just stopping that suddenly. 40+ years worth of work is not easily dismantled and replaced in 2 years.

It's the EU that's being bloody difficult as always, demanding concessions all the time - they are a corrupt set of unelected old morons, who totally disgust me. I no longer want to be a EU Citizen, I absolutely detest everything about the EU and what it has become and what it wants to become.

Finally the Brits have a chance to stand up to these EU imbeciles and say no bloody more, we want out, that's how it should be if we had a strong PM.

As Inventor and Entrepreneur Sir James Dyson has said - Us leaving the EU, would hurt them more than it would hurt us.

Damien 27-07-2018 12:15

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35956786)
Which parts of Europe I have been to is irrelevant. You're doing that thing again, inventing things up I have never said. I never said there is no where decent to go in Europe, I said there is better places to go, than Europe and that is a factual analysis.

I was only asking were went as part of the discussion since it was about places to go.


I didn't say you didn't say there were not decent places to go in Europe. I said there are amazing places to go. It's not a 'factual analysis' to say there are better places to go, it's a subjective opinion. People like different things.



Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35956786)
As Inventor and Entrepreneur Sir James Dyson has said - Us leaving the EU, would hurt them more than it would hurt us.

Their combined economy is far bigger than ours. Their base of possible customers far larger too.

Dave42 27-07-2018 12:20

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35956786)
Which parts of Europe I have been to is irrelevant. You're doing that thing again, inventing things up I have never said. I never said there is no where decent to go in Europe, I said there is better places to go, than Europe and that is a factual analysis.



It's the EU that's being bloody difficult as always, demanding concessions all the time - they are a corrupt set of unelected old morons, who totally disgust me. I no longer want to be a EU Citizen, I absolutely detest everything about the EU and what it has become and what it wants to become.

Finally the Brits have a chance to stand up to these EU imbeciles and say no bloody more, we want out, that's how it should be if we had a strong PM.

As Inventor and Entrepreneur Sir James Dyson has said - Us leaving the EU, would hurt them more than it would hurt us.

aye we be only country in world with 0 trade deals they still have all there's and doing one with USA now too we be just a little island of the cost of Europe so love to have James Dyson tell us that will make them worse of than us

ianch99 27-07-2018 12:21

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35956791)
It's the EU that's being bloody difficult as always, demanding concessions all the time - they are a corrupt set of unelected old morons, who totally disgust me. I no longer want to be a EU Citizen, I absolutely detest everything about the EU and what it has become and what it wants to become.

Ok, who has kidnapped Damien and replaced him with a Brexit Bot?

Damien 27-07-2018 12:28

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Opps! fixed

papa smurf 27-07-2018 13:19

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 35956792)
aye we be only country in world with 0 trade deals they still have all there's and doing one with USA now too we be just a little island of the cost of Europe so love to have James Dyson tell us that will make them worse of than us

Can you do that in English ?

Mick 27-07-2018 13:46

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35956794)
Ok, who has kidnapped Damien and replaced him with a Brexit Bot?

WTF you calling the "Brexit bot" ? :mad:

You never learn. You are now suspended until further notice.

ianch99 27-07-2018 16:51

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35956807)
WTF you calling the "Brexit bot" ? :mad:

You never learn. You are now suspended until further notice.

I need to apologise here. When I saw Damien's reply that was obviously not in his style, I tried to make a joke that he had been replaced by a Facebook/Twitter style "Bot". I guess my joke did not come across as such :( Back to Joke School for me ..

Sephiroth 27-07-2018 17:08

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
It's the EU that's being bloody difficult as always, demanding concessions all the time - they are a corrupt set of unelected old morons, who totally disgust me. I no longer want to be a EU Citizen, I absolutely detest everything about the EU and what it has become and what it wants to become.



But somewhat valid nevertheless! Certainly reflecting or partially reflecting a considerable body of opinion in this thread.

---------- Post added at 17:08 ---------- Previous post was at 17:07 ----------

It's not yet raining here in Rutland. It's all Juncker's fault!

Mick 27-07-2018 20:00

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35956844)
I need to apologise here. When I saw Damien's reply that was obviously not in his style, I tried to make a joke that he had been replaced by a Facebook/Twitter style "Bot". I guess my joke did not come across as such :( Back to Joke School for me ..

Fair enough - I apologise too - I totally took it the wrong way. I blame the heat. :Sun:

End result, total over reaction on my part and where I am wrong, I am not ashamed to admit it. I obviously removed the suspension when I was advised it wasn't what you had intended.

RichardCoulter 27-07-2018 20:27

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
According to Channel 5, we import 70% of the medicines that we need.

Senior civil servants are warning that, if we leave with a no deal Brexit, hospitals will run out of drugs within two weeks.

True?

Scaremongering?

Mr K 27-07-2018 20:44

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35956896)
According to Channel 5, we import 70% of the medicines that we need.

Senior civil servants are warning that, if we leave with a no deal Brexit, hospitals will run out of drugs within two weeks.

True?

Scaremongering?

Well medicines are being stockpiled in case of no deal so make your own mind up. Project Fear is becoming reality.

Mick 27-07-2018 21:14

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35956896)
According to Channel 5, we import 70% of the medicines that we need.

Senior civil servants are warning that, if we leave with a no deal Brexit, hospitals will run out of drugs within two weeks.

True?

Scaremongering?

The underlined being the problem - many civil servants being Remainers, using scaremongering strategies, to scare people, make them panic, when there is absolutely no need to.

We managed in the 70's... we can and will manage again if people really truly believe that Britain can do things without the EU like we did 40 years to prior to ever joining the Union, sure let's do a deal but we do not want to be shackled to the EU and they tell us what we can and cannot do still, problem is there is saboteurs at every corner who want Brexit to fail, to prove and say, "I told you so.", it is so wrong and sad, a country should be able to thrive and strive on it's own without the meddling of a corrupt union, aka the EU.

Mr K 27-07-2018 21:22

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
I
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35956904)
The underlined being the problem - many civil servants being Remainers, using scaremongering strategies, to scare people, make them panic, when there is absolutely no need to.

We managed in the 70's... we can and will manage again if people really truly believe that Britain can do things without the EU like we did 40 years to prior to ever joining the Union, sure let's do a deal but we do not want to be shackled to the EU and they tell us what we can and cannot do still, problem is there is saboteurs at every corner who want Brexit to fail, to prove and say, "I told you so.", it is so wrong and sad, a country should be able to thrive and strive on it's own without the meddling of a corrupt union, aka the EU.

Why did we join if everything was so brilliant pre-EU then? And why were we desperate to join years before we were eventually accepted?

As for the corrupt EU, I still don't recall any major corruption. Are you looking to that uncorrupted pair of gangsters Trump/Putin for trade?

papa smurf 27-07-2018 21:28

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35956896)
According to Channel 5, we import 70% of the medicines that we need.

Senior civil servants are warning that, if we leave with a no deal Brexit, hospitals will run out of drugs within two weeks.

True?

Scaremongering?

Whats the Eu going to do shut down drug production or stockpile thousands of tons of drugs until the companies go bankrupt
how many Eu countries can afford to lose trade with the UK .
This is a bit like those airbuses that are going to fly without wings .

Mick 27-07-2018 22:15

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35956908)
Whats the Eu going to do shut down drug production or stockpile thousands of tons of drugs until the companies go bankrupt
how many Eu countries can afford to lose trade with the UK .
This is a bit like those airbuses that are going to fly without wings .

Precisely - are these drug companies just going to stop producing billions of pounds worth of Medicine because the EU tells them to, I don't think so.

1andrew1 27-07-2018 22:44

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35956913)
Precisely - are these drug companies just going to stop producing billions of pounds worth of Medicine because the EU tells them to, I don't think so.

I think Damien covered this point off earlier. No deal would result in congestion at ports so medicines will take longer to arrive in the UK. So a sensible but costly precaution to maintain a higher level of stocks.

pip08456 27-07-2018 23:32

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35956917)
I think Damien covered this point off earlier. No deal would result in congestion at ports so medicines will take longer to arrive in the UK. So a sensible but costly precaution to maintain a higher level of stocks.

And that's all it is, nothing more than a sensible precaution which doesn't mean the former is true.

RichardCoulter 28-07-2018 03:31

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
I really hope that there won't be a shortage of drugs, I rely on a lot of medication to keep me going, as do many others.

Damien 28-07-2018 07:14

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35956927)
And that's all it is, nothing more than a sensible precaution which doesn't mean the former is true.

Depends on how confident you are in the competence of the government to manage the ports. :D

I don't think it will happen because I don't with the UK or the EU will let no-deal happen and instead have some sort of fudge that keeps all the EU stuff in place as part of the 'transition period' while talks continue.

People need to talk about what's actually happening though. No one has said the EU will stop selling us stuff.

Sephiroth 28-07-2018 09:49

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35956935)
Depends on how confident you are in the competence of the government to manage the ports. :D

I don't think it will happen because I don't with the UK or the EU will let no-deal happen and instead have some sort of fudge that keeps all the EU stuff in place as part of the 'transition period' while talks continue.

People need to talk about what's actually happening though. No one has said the EU will stop selling us stuff.

”... some sort of fudge...” is a realistic appraisal (as distinct from doo & gloom).

Mick 28-07-2018 09:51

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35956930)
I really hope that there won't be a shortage of drugs, I rely on a lot of medication to keep me going, as do many others.

As do I for my “Disabilities”, but I refuse to be brainwashed with the bullshit stories of shortages, it’s some pathetic Remainers as civil servants and MPs, upping their scaremongering tactics. It should be treated for what it is, a big pile of steaming bullshit.

Pierre 28-07-2018 09:51

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35956905)
Why did we join if everything was so brilliant pre-EU then? And why were we desperate to join years before we were eventually accepted?


You should know your history.............Because it was just a trading block at the time. The was no political slant sold to us.

Sephiroth 28-07-2018 10:29

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Pierre is right and we were right to join the EEC. I do recall, however, that Heath did it more or less on his own, though with a Parliamentary vote. Note that the Common Market became the EEC, then the EC and now the EU (since around 1993).

Talk about scope creep!

---------- Post added at 10:29 ---------- Previous post was at 10:24 ----------

Another thing is bothering me now. Not only was the 52/48 thing finely sort of balanced, but with the Japan FTA and perhaps a decent chance of a US FTA, the objective economic balance is moving.

If we can maintain our never closer union position (goes to the sovereignty backstop) then I can see a Remain vote if a second referendum occurred.

papa smurf 28-07-2018 11:04

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35956913)
Precisely - are these drug companies just going to stop producing billions of pounds worth of Medicine because the EU tells them to, I don't think so.

Eu farmers working the fields / farms will not be told on the 29 march that their produce can't be sold to it's intended market ,and any border delays will just see them out of pocket as spoiled goods will not be accepted ,i doubt it will be long before the EU is at war with it's self over falling profits .

Sephiroth 28-07-2018 12:50

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35956969)
Eu farmers working the fields / farms will not be told on the 29 march that their produce can't be sold to it's intended market ,and any border delays will just see them out of pocket as spoiled goods will not be accepted ,i doubt it will be long before the EU is at war with it's self over falling profits .

Hence the likelihood of a fudge.

Mick 28-07-2018 12:56

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35956969)
Eu farmers working the fields / farms will not be told on the 29 march that their produce can't be sold to it's intended market ,and any border delays will just see them out of pocket as spoiled goods will not be accepted ,i doubt it will be long before the EU is at war with it's self over falling profits .

Exactly. The Remainers portray the damage as a one way system all aimed at us, the EU will be hurt more badly than us, if everything stops dead with no deal. I want a deal, still be friends with Europe, but we don’t need to be in the EU to still trade and do business. I don’t want a bad deal though like the Chequers Paper. No deal is better than a bad deal.

Sephiroth 28-07-2018 13:03

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35956286)
You are falling for the hype of the remainers, who are growing ever more desperate.

First of all, you seem to be saying there has been no negotiation and the EU keep saying 'no'. If that was really the case, how come that both sides agree that we are 80% there? The illusion you are painting is not an awfully good one.

As for the Northern Ireland border, I have said a few times before that this is not the issue some people think it is. Existing arrangements are adequate for most of the trade that goes through the border, and Theresa May and Dominic Raab will be discussing the precise method by which this is done for the remainder. There are detailed options not yet made public which will be subject to negotiation.

You can see from the new bounce in her step that at long last, Theresa May can see that the final details of this plan will soon be agreed.

You've gone a bit quiet, OB!

Mr K 28-07-2018 15:06

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35957026)
. No deal is better than a bad deal.

Given that day one of no deal could look like the below you may find a bad deal would be better than no deal.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a8463636.html
Quote:

It’s Saturday 30 March 2019 and Britain has gone over the cliff edge.

At 11pm the night before the UK left the EU with no deal agreed. There is no financial liabilities settlement. There is no agreement on EU citizens’ rights or security cooperation. Britain is totally outside the customs union. There’s no single market “transition”.

Nor is there any route to a free trade deal. All Britain has to govern its trade with the EU now is the bare rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Theresa May announces her resignation and the Conservative Party begins its leadership election process.

Nigel Farage is delighted at the last-minute collapse of the Brexit negotiations and declares outside parliament, as the dawn breaks, that Britain is now truly an independent nation once again.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, now the clear favourite for the Tory leadership having lead the successful campaign to thwart May’s proposed “vassalage” deal, informs BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that although what he describes as a “clean Brexit” will likely entail some “bumpiness” any disruption will be short-lived and ultimately well worth it.

Travellers are the first to feel the bump. UK airports are in chaos, as all flights to mainland Europe have been cancelled since late on Friday.

The WTO rules do not cover aviation. And no aircraft is permitted to fly between the UK and EU airports until a new bilateral agreement on flights is reached.

Weekend motorists in Kent are also suffering, as the roads leading to the ports of Dover and Folkestone soon become gridlocked with stationary lorries.

Each UK export consignment to Europe now has to be checked by customs staff in Calais, with tariffs and VAT collected.

The French port’s infrastructure is rapidly overwhelmed and ferry companies are instructed not to disgorge any more lorries until they can hire and train more officers.

The only option for hauliers bound for the EU is to queue and wait.

Traffic going the other way also locks up, as the UK’s small band of customs staff also soon become swamped, despite instructions for them to check only one incoming consignment from the EU in five.

By the end of the day, gaps are already starting to appear on UK supermarket shelves as shoppers, hearing about the customs crisis, stockpile goods, anticipating that deliveries from Europe will fail to arrive.

Some petrol stations are running low on fuel as tankers have difficulty getting through. Expecting a rush of panic buying, some profiteering operators jack up fuel prices on Sunday to as much as £1.50 a litre.

When the stock markets open on Monday, traders’ screens are drenched in red as UK stocks and investment funds get brutally marked down. Many find they cannot process orders on behalf of European clients due to the sudden demise of the single market passport for financial services.

Bank executives implement their contingency plans, informing thousands of employees that they will either be sacked or relocated to Frankfurt.

Lawyers are commissioned across the Square Mile for a gargantuan battle over trillions of pounds of derivative contracts whose legal status is now suddenly in doubt.

Despite an emergency rate cut and unprecedentedly large financial market liquidity injection from the Bank of England, panic takes hold in the City.

The pound is sinking at its most rapid rate since the night of that Leave vote in the Brexit referendum. One airport bureau de change offers to buy pounds for only a single dollar.

Car plant workers in the midlands and the north east arrive for work only to be told that half of them should go home. The parts they need to work with have not been delivered. They are stuck in transit and the “just in time” delivery system has broken down. The shockwaves ripple out to their thousands of supplier firms. Airbus announces it is closing down its entire plant in Wales, throwing 10,000 out of work at a stroke.

Despite months of stockpiling, many NHS drug deliveries are also held up. Non-urgent operations are cancelled indefinitely. All but the most sick are urged not to present themselves for treatment. One panicking manager of an overstretched hospital turns away a Spanish woman because, he says, as an EU citizen, her right to healthcare in the UK is now unclear. Others follow the precedent. The Madrid government declares that, in retaliation, retired Britons on the Costa del Sol will also be ineligible for Spanish healthcare.

Civil servants frantically hammer the phones, trying to get through to their European counterparts, pleading for the ports and airports to be opened, for emergency supplies to be fast-tracked, for some kind of temporary political agreement on the rights of EU citizens and Britons on the continent.

But the Europeans are divided. Hardliners in Germany, France and the Netherlands insist on no cooperation with the perfidious Brits whatsoever until they agree to honour their £39bn of EU liabilities. They are also consumed with the question of how to deal with Ireland, which has refused to close its border with the north for fear of provoking a Republican terror attack, leaving a gaping hole in the EU’s customs union.

As UK public anger and fear swells, Brexiteers give defensive media interviews. Some blame the chaos on the government’s failure to plan adequately.

Others blame the EU for deliberately sabotaging the UK economy and demand retaliation. Others call for martial law. Not one utters the words “project fear”.

Dave42 28-07-2018 15:07

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35957026)
Exactly. The Remainers portray the damage as a one way system all aimed at us, the EU will be hurt more badly than us, if everything stops dead with no deal. I want a deal, still be friends with Europe, but we don’t need to be in the EU to still trade and do business. I don’t want a bad deal though like the Chequers Paper. No deal is better than a bad deal.

no they wont they still got all there trade deals we be only country in world with 0 trade deal and just be a insignificant island off the cost of Europe

no deal is the worst thing that can happen

papa smurf 28-07-2018 15:40

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35957037)
Given that day one of no deal could look like the below you may find a bad deal would be better than no deal.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a8463636.html

i take anything this rag publishes about brexit as totally biased rubbish .

Mr K 28-07-2018 15:42

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35957040)
i take anything this rag publishes about brexit as totally biased rubbish .

Sticking to the unbiased Fail/Express then Smurf ;)

papa smurf 28-07-2018 15:47

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35957041)
Sticking to the unbiased Fail/Express then Smurf ;)

no not at all
this rag is even petitioning for "a peoples vote" why? because in the referendum the wrong people won .
i wouldn't wipe my backside on it if was desperate .

Damien 28-07-2018 16:40

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35957026)
Exactly. The Remainers portray the damage as a one way system all aimed at us, the EU will be hurt more badly than us, if everything stops dead with no deal. I want a deal, still be friends with Europe, but we don’t need to be in the EU to still trade and do business. I don’t want a bad deal though like the Chequers Paper. No deal is better than a bad deal.

The EU will be hurt but not more than us. They’ll still be able to continue with each other’s countries. They are a much bigger bloc both in terms of GDP and population. France and Germany along are big and rich nations. What makes you think they’ll be hurt more?

Sephiroth 28-07-2018 17:15

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
The worst part of it is that the EU are behaving nastily towards us. Why would we want to be in their club given they've shown their true colours?

The Remainers on this thread have answered the above question. Although the Remainers haven't conceded that the EU is behaving nastily, they know it but feel that protection of our economy is more important than getting away from an EU that treats us so badly.

The EU logically says that it is we who decided to leave, so it is up to us to come up with relationship proposals that suit the EU. Nothing we propose that they perceive as being to our advantage will ever suit the EU.

Then we have a useless guvmin that couldn't get to grips with this day 1 reality. Fox and co had convinced themselves that a trade agreement with the EU would be a doddle; they'd called the EU names for years but never took steps in power to forestall the eventuality we are now facing.

As March approaches, appraisals of the type made above will grow in frequency and assertiveness and public unrest will grow.

A bubble then has to burst. First it is likely to be the Conservative Party although that can be avoided by a change of leader. Second, public unrest could be assuaged by a second referendum which I'm now certain will lead to a Remain decision by a larger than 52/48 ratio.

As I've said before, I don't mind remaining in the EU provided that we are not bound by "ever closer union" and we can use our picador sticks on them to get France's protective mantle lifted; to get Germany's illegal 8% surplus reduced to 3%; stay out of the Euro.

But as I'm not allowed to call the Brussels lot "turds" I can only lament as to how we got to this stage and how let down we are by the Guvmin.

Damien 28-07-2018 17:36

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35957045)
The worst part of it is that the EU are behaving nastily towards us.

If people think this is bad wait for the shock you’ll all get when we start doing trade deals. :erm:

OLD BOY 28-07-2018 18:13

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35956930)
I really hope that there won't be a shortage of drugs, I rely on a lot of medication to keep me going, as do many others.

I really wouldn't worry about that, Richard. It's scaremongering, pure and simple.

---------- Post added at 18:13 ---------- Previous post was at 18:08 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 35957038)
no they wont they still got all there trade deals we be only country in world with 0 trade deal and just be a insignificant island off the cost of Europe

no deal is the worst thing that can happen

No, a bad deal is the worst thing that could happen.

Incidentally, we have already been in discussions with other countries to secure trade deals after we leave the EU.

I should also remind you that we don't need trade deals in order to trade.

heero_yuy 28-07-2018 18:22

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Quote from OLD BOY:

I should also remind you that we don't need trade deals in order to trade.
That point does seem to pass the stallwart remainers by. :rolleyes:

Damien 28-07-2018 18:28

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35957051)
That point does seem to pass the stallwart remainers by. :rolleyes:

It isn’t, I’ve said that multiple times.

jonbxx 28-07-2018 18:59

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35957048)
I really wouldn't worry about that, Richard. It's scaremongering, pure and simple.

Drug regulation is a big part of what I do for work. Will there be a shortage of drugs, the answer is ‘it depends’. A lot of drugs, particularly biological such as a number of cancer treatments (the ones wwith th generic names ending in MAB) are not actually approved directly by the MHRA, the UKs drug approvals body. Instead, we delegate this to the European Medicines Agency.

If one member of the EMA approves a drug, it is approved across the whole EU. It’s a nice system that works well for the industry and the consumer. The big question is tha will we accept EMA approved drugs post Brexit? What about new drugs?

A large number of bio.ogicals are made in Ireland and approved by the Irish regulatory bodies. Do we trust the going forward? If yes, what happens if something goes wrong, who is liable? What if there is a disagreement on the regulatory approaches? If no, we may need to approve all EMA approved drugs to MHRA standards going forward.

It’s a tough one! Do we trust a foreign drug agency to protect the health of British patients. In a WTO situation, if we accept EMA standards, we may need to accept any third party standards.

Regulated industries are terrified about this at present. See also aviation as an example...

OLD BOY 28-07-2018 19:09

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35957056)
Drug regulation is a big part of what I do for work. Will there be a shortage of drugs, the answer is ‘it depends’. A lot of drugs, particularly biological such as a number of cancer treatments (the ones wwith th generic names ending in MAB) are not actually approved directly by the MHRA, the UKs drug approvals body. Instead, we delegate this to the European Medicines Agency.

If one member of the EMA approves a drug, it is approved across the whole EU. It’s a nice system that works well for the industry and the consumer. The big question is tha will we accept EMA approved drugs post Brexit? What about new drugs?

A large number of bio.ogicals are made in Ireland and approved by the Irish regulatory bodies. Do we trust the going forward? If yes, what happens if something goes wrong, who is liable? What if there is a disagreement on the regulatory approaches? If no, we may need to approve all EMA approved drugs to MHRA standards going forward.

It’s a tough one! Do we trust a foreign drug agency to protect the health of British patients. In a WTO situation, if we accept EMA standards, we may need to accept any third party standards.

Regulated industries are terrified about this at present. See also aviation as an example...

I don’t know if ‘terrified’ is the right description, but concerns are simply related to the fact that the government’s plans in case of a ‘no deal’ have not been announced yet.

There are so many people, it seems, that appear to have forgotten that we did have a (very successful) history before the EU!

---------- Post added at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 19:07 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35957047)
If people think this is bad wait for the shock you’ll all get when we start doing trade deals. :erm:

So defeatist! I’m glad you aren’t in charge of our negotiations!

Sephiroth 28-07-2018 19:15

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
@OLD_BOY

You were rather convinced that the Chequers Plan would fly. At least that's my interpretation of your words when replying to Remainers (and others) who were trashing it.

Now that the EU has trashed the key component (Customs) what is your next forecast as to what will happen?

OLD BOY 28-07-2018 19:21

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35957037)
Given that day one of no deal could look like the below you may find a bad deal would be better than no deal.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a8463636.html

Nice piece of fiction there, Mr K! However, you will soon find that this scenario is as unbelievable as the speculation over the Millennium Bug!

I didn’t believe that, either! Did you?

---------- Post added at 19:21 ---------- Previous post was at 19:18 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35957062)
@OLD_BOY

You were rather convinced that the Chequers Plan would fly. At least that's my interpretation of your words when replying to Remainers (and others) who were trashing it.

Now that the EU has trashed the key component (Customs) what is your next forecast as to what will happen?

The Chequers Plan has, in fact, been approved by Parliament. The EU knows that Theresa May has very little wriggle room, so if it tries to push back too far, a no-deal situation will be with us.

Either scenario is OK by me.

Sephiroth 28-07-2018 19:25

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35957063)
Nice piece of fiction there, Mr K! However, you will soon find that this scenario is as unbelievable as the speculation over the Millennium Bug!

I didn’t believe that, either! Did you?

---------- Post added at 19:21 ---------- Previous post was at 19:18 ----------



The Chequers Plan has, in fact, been approved by Parliament. The EU knows that Theresa May has very little wriggle room, so if it tries to push back too far, a no-deal situation will be with us.

Either scenario is OK by me.

Possibly so; but you were so optimistic about the Chequers Plan and it is now dead because the customs proposal has been rejected.

Now it seems you are optimistic that the EU will sort of come to its senses and allow us to administer their customs duty collection. Is that your position?

Mr K 28-07-2018 21:19

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35957063)
Nice piece of fiction there, Mr K! However, you will soon find that this scenario is as unbelievable as the speculation over the Millennium Bug!
.

I didn't write the article OB ! It may/may not be exaggerated, but the fact is we are in deep do do with no deal, no matter how much Brexit supporters salivate over the prospect. Maybe its a sadomasochistic type of thing !

As for the Millennium Bug if we hadn't of made preparations and anticipated the problem we would have been in trouble. But we made the necessary adjustments. We've made no preparations for No Deal because this Government is useless and unable to do much because of it's weak position. ('strong and stable' LMAO ! )

jonbxx 29-07-2018 09:02

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35957060)
I don’t know if ‘terrified’ is the right description, but concerns are simply related to the fact that the government’s plans in case of a ‘no deal’ have not been announced yet.

There are so many people, it seems, that appear to have forgotten that we did have a (very successful) history before the EU![COLOR="Silver"]

Maybe ‘extremely concerned’ is a better description when the answer is we don’t know to the following questions;

Will drugs produced to EMA standards be acceptable in the UK?
Will drugs produced to UK standards be acceptable in EMA governed countries
Will the UK contribute to international drug bodies such as the International Committee for Harmonisation
How will raw materials quality be governed?
How will raw material manufacturers in the UK be inspected before shipment to other countries?

These questions and others need an answer and soon so plans can be made.

Of course this and other industries existed before we joined the EU but the industry has changed beyond all recognition. The best selling drug in the 70s was Valium. It’s now Etanercept, an incredibly complicated product to manufacture.

Damien 29-07-2018 09:16

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35957060)
So defeatist! I’m glad you aren’t in charge of our negotiations!

If you read the context my post it is not defeatist. I am not the one advocating taking the ball and going home because people are 'mean to us'. This is the relationship people voted for, a adversarial one where both sides will seek to leverage their power to get the best deal they can. The EU have the article 50 deadline and the size of their economy on their side.

If people don't have the stomach for this when what will happen when it comes to the US who will certainly attempt to leverage the size of their economy to exact the most concessions from us possible? Do we just pack up and go home then too?

1andrew1 29-07-2018 12:51

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35957112)
If you read the context my post it is not defeatist. I am not the one advocating taking the ball and going home because people are 'mean to us'. This is the relationship people voted for, a adversarial one where both sides will seek to leverage their power to get the best deal they can. The EU have the article 50 deadline and the size of their economy on their side.

If people don't have the stomach for this when what will happen when it comes to the US who will certainly attempt to leverage the size of their economy to exact the most concessions from us possible? Do we just pack up and go home then too?

I think you're right, Damien, there does seem be almost a defeatist victim mentality "Go home if they're mean to us' playing out here as you neatly put it. The reality is that size matters and the US, Japan, EU and others are far bigger economies so hold a better negotiating hand. Our strength should be our agility but the current government is not very fleet of foot.

OLD BOY 29-07-2018 22:30

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35957112)
If you read the context my post it is not defeatist. I am not the one advocating taking the ball and going home because people are 'mean to us'. This is the relationship people voted for, a adversarial one where both sides will seek to leverage their power to get the best deal they can. The EU have the article 50 deadline and the size of their economy on their side.

If people don't have the stomach for this when what will happen when it comes to the US who will certainly attempt to leverage the size of their economy to exact the most concessions from us possible? Do we just pack up and go home then too?

Oh, please! Do you really expect the UK to except whatever deal is thrown at us? If that is not defeatist, what is?

Damien 30-07-2018 07:04

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35957215)
Oh, please! Do you really expect the UK to except whatever deal is thrown at us? If that is not defeatist, what is?

I don’t engage in this thread enough to correct every inability to comprehend. Staying at the table doesn’t mean accepting whatever deal they offer, you have to fight for your side as well.

Sephiroth 30-07-2018 10:42

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Hence the likely upcoming fudge.

ianch99 30-07-2018 11:59

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35957060)
There are so many people, it seems, that appear to have forgotten that we did have a (very successful) history before the EU

It is a very dangerous if not a naive strategy to apply the experience gained 40+ years ago to our current situation. Repeating "it will be fine" reassures no one except the faithful.

If you think the obstacles looming out of the mist are illusory then prove it. Explain why we will not have delays at the border. explain why we will not suffer financially, etc.

Repeating "we will be fine, have faith" with no proof or worked examples is just hot air. Remember, large numbers of Leaves voters were promised they would be better off and voted on the basis of this.

---------- Post added at 11:59 ---------- Previous post was at 11:49 ----------

Here's interesting analysis of the recent question on impact of WTO rules on

Fact checking Sir Michael Rawlins statements in relation to Insulin and #Brexit. Should we be worried?

It aims to be objective on the issue, no tabloid headlines just an adult perspective.

Quote:

Instead of having to check less than half our imports, including those coming from non-EU countries into the EU then into the UK, until there are appropriate agreements in place, and those will need to be intra and extra EU, we will need to check all imports into the UK for appropriate tariffs. It’s worth bearing in mind that the technology that is currently in use for Customs is also old and was supposed to be scrapped five years ago.

Suddenly our border infrastructure, that has been set-up to deal with the EU for forty years needs to handle twice as many imports with old technology. That’s where Sir Michael’s concern about transportation comes from. With a little over eight months, is it likely that we will have the appropriate infrastructure in place to handle the entire flow of goods?

The two points of view differ dramatically, with some saying, “Well it only takes 6 seconds for WTO goods to pass border checks” to others taking the point of view that the increased scope and complexity of border controls will cause significant delays. Many large industry participants are taking the latter viewpoint. I’m sure the truth lies somewhere in between.
This was interesting re: our WTO hard Brexit preparation:

Quote:

The UK submitted its new schedule to the WTO on July 24th, however, the US, Australia and Canada all disapproved of the terms, so what the UK ends up with remains very unclear and subject to negotiation.
It seems our initial WTO position may need refining.

Hugh 30-07-2018 12:14

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

There are so many people, it seems, that appear to have forgotten that we did have a (very successful) history before the EU
Ah, the 70's, those halcyon days of 3 day working weeks, rolling power blackouts, widespread industrial action, raging inflation, the oil crisis, the financial crisis, the Austin Allegro, the Morris Marina - let's go back to the good old days...

Or the 60s

nomadking 30-07-2018 12:27

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35957111)
Maybe ‘extremely concerned’ is a better description when the answer is we don’t know to the following questions;

Will drugs produced to EMA standards be acceptable in the UK?
Will drugs produced to UK standards be acceptable in EMA governed countries
Will the UK contribute to international drug bodies such as the International Committee for Harmonisation
How will raw materials quality be governed?
How will raw material manufacturers in the UK be inspected before shipment to other countries?

These questions and others need an answer and soon so plans can be made.

Of course this and other industries existed before we joined the EU but the industry has changed beyond all recognition. The best selling drug in the 70s was Valium. It’s now Etanercept, an incredibly complicated product to manufacture.

Nothing stopping us from automatically approving EU regulated drugs or anything else. And we can produce things that meet EU regulations. After all, other non-EU countries must manage it, including China. The thing is we might want to produce or accept products with looser regulations or perhaps stricter regulations.


I can remember an issue from several years ago, where UK regulations for UHT milk were stricter than in France. We were forced to accept French UHT milk which didn't meet our own internal regulations which our producers had to meet. UHT milk may not be much of an issue, but it does demonstrate the issue.

Damien 30-07-2018 12:42

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Yeah we can accept whatever we want. There is nothing stopping us importing stuff other than our own laws. Going out is a different question.

With medication I suspect we'll conform to the EU regulations for a long while anyway because I can't see why we wouldn't.

Pierre 30-07-2018 13:03

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35957254)
Ah, the 70's, those halcyon days of 3 day working weeks, rolling power blackouts, widespread industrial action, raging inflation, the oil crisis, the financial crisis, the Austin Allegro, the Morris Marina - let's go back to the good old days...

Or the 60s

Joining the EU didn't solve those issues, Thatcher did.

pip08456 30-07-2018 13:05

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
:gpoint:

Mick 30-07-2018 13:41

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
BREAKING: Number 10: No plans to call in the army if Britain leaves EU without a deal.

Just goes to show the stories like the one this weekend of the army being on standby, are from Remainers launching Project Fear 2.1 with fiction in combination with the Fake News Media.

---------- Post added at 13:41 ---------- Previous post was at 13:20 ----------

https://s.faketrumptweet.com/jk89ezu4_wwn8dm_nvv5d3.png

:rofl:

pip08456 30-07-2018 13:50

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
That was due to a report in project fears biggest promoter, The Sunday Times.

ianch99 30-07-2018 14:25

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Looks like everyone is at the Project Fear Fake News game, even the Remain loving Daily Express :)

Army ready for BREXIT NO DEAL: Troops to deliver food and medicine – blueprints REVEAL

Must be untrue if the Express says it ...

Damien 30-07-2018 14:27

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35957265)
BREAKING: Number 10: No plans to call in the army if Britain leaves EU without a deal.

Just goes to show the stories like the one this weekend of the army being on standby, are from Remainers launching Project Fear 2.1 with fiction in combination with the Fake News Media.

The no-deal preparations were being demanded by the Brexiters in Government.

Also the Army are on standby for things a lot. When there is flooding the army comes in and when G4S couldn't handle security for the Olympics then the army covered.

In the end it's costs nothing and if the ports end up being gridlocked then everyone here would be blaming May for not having a plan-B. I am miffed at the people who not only want no deal but don't want us to make any preparations for it.


Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35957270)
That was due to a report in project fears biggest promoter, The Sunday Times.

The Sunday Times backed Leave.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/t...inkId=25687995

Quote:

This Thursday, therefore, we should vote to leave. Yes, we must be prepared for a bumpy ride, but we should hold our nerve. This vote may be the only opportunity we shall ever have to call a halt to the onward march of the centralising European project. Such a state would be neither in our interests, nor Europe’s. In this referendum campaign, we have been rethinking our identity: not as an offshore island nation, but as a global player. By our example, Britain may also force Europe to think again about its own destination. We can help our friends face a better future.

jonbxx 30-07-2018 19:03

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35957257)
Nothing stopping us from automatically approving EU regulated drugs or anything else. And we can produce things that meet EU regulations. After all, other non-EU countries must manage it, including China. The thing is we might want to produce or accept products with looser regulations or perhaps stricter regulations.


I can remember an issue from several years ago, where UK regulations for UHT milk were stricter than in France. We were forced to accept French UHT milk which didn't meet our own internal regulations which our producers had to meet. UHT milk may not be much of an issue, but it does demonstrate the issue.

You are absolutely right, the best way would be to mirror EMA rules at least in the short term, creating a ‘one way single market’ for drug imports. The other way with exports may be more tricky but that wasn’t the issue being discussed here.

The major concern regarding drug shortages is holdups at the import stage, especially for cold chain drugs such as vaccines and other biologicals, hence the article from Sir Michael Rawlins, head of the MHRA- https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.c...irstPass=false

nomadking 30-07-2018 19:30

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35957316)
You are absolutely right, the best way would be to mirror EMA rules at least in the short term, creating a ‘one way single market’ for drug imports. The other way with exports may be more tricky but that wasn’t the issue being discussed here.

The major concern regarding drug shortages is holdups at the import stage, especially for cold chain drugs such as vaccines and other biologicals, hence the article from Sir Michael Rawlins, head of the MHRA- https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.c...irstPass=false

Still not seeing anything that would explain any alleged potential blockage or hold-up.
Quote:

He said: “We can’t just sit at the edge of the room watching what’s going on, not speaking: we need to have a say.
“We do about a third of scientific assessments for the EMA, so we make a major contribution. The EMA has reassigned the UK’s portfolio of centrally authorised products to other EU member states, but the ideal solution would be to get it all back again.”
Any blockages or hold-ups on drugs or anything else, would be at the EU end, ie Export from the UK.

1andrew1 30-07-2018 19:45

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35957320)
Still not seeing anything that would explain any alleged potential blockage or hold-up.

Any blockages or hold-ups on drugs or anything else, would be at the EU end, ie Export from the UK.

It's the country that imports goods that would check them to ascertain that they are what they say they are so that they pay the relevant duties and meet the appropriate standards. If medicines were zero-rated and other items not zero-rated, then the importing country would need to check that the goods were actually medicines. And presumably the driver's licence and insurance would need verifying too.

pip08456 30-07-2018 19:51

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35957320)
Still not seeing anything that would explain any alleged potential blockage or hold-up.

Any blockages or hold-ups on drugs or anything else, would be at the EU end, ie Export from the UK.

Don't you just love all these reports from Professors,Heads of departments etc who don't even bother prefixing their reports with "In a worst case scenario"?

After all, that's what their reports are.

nomadking 30-07-2018 19:51

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35957325)
It's the country that imports goods that would check them to ascertain that they are what they say they are so that they pay the relevant duties and meet the appropriate standards. If medicines were zero-rated and other items not zero-rated, then the importing country would need to check that the goods were actually medicines. And presumably the driver's licence and insurance would need verifying too.

The article doesn't say any of that. How long would any checks(if they're done) take? We are an island and delays happen all the time, eg Channel Tunnel closed, Ferries not operating because of bad weather. Then there are often delays transporting within the UK. Still nothing that would hold things up to such an extent as to cause problems.


Anything in and coming from the EU, is supposed to meet EU regulations. That is supposed to be one of the EUs concerns. That the UK could produce or export something to the EU that doesn't meet their regulations, unless the EU restricts and checks the items.

ianch99 30-07-2018 20:53

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35957316)
The major concern regarding drug shortages is holdups at the import stage, especially for cold chain drugs such as vaccines and other biologicals, hence the article from Sir Michael Rawlins, head of the MHRA- https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.c...irstPass=false

Did you see the link I posted here? It is an interesting article fact checking Sir Michael Rawlins warning. It would be interesting to know you thoughts on it ..

---------- Post added at 20:53 ---------- Previous post was at 20:51 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35957328)
Don't you just love all these reports from Professors,Heads of departments etc who don't even bother prefixing their reports with "In a worst case scenario"?

After all, that's what their reports are.

But why are they warning of potential issues? Are they all conspiring to mislead the public or are they trying to be realistic on what is a probable outcome?

1andrew1 30-07-2018 21:10

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35957251)
Repeating "we will be fine, have faith" with no proof or worked examples is just hot air.

Spot on.

---------- Post added at 21:08 ---------- Previous post was at 21:04 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35957328)
Don't you just love all these reports from Professors,Heads of departments etc who don't even bother prefixing their reports with "In a worst case scenario"?

After all, that's what their reports are.

I think that's as accurate as the statement that The Sunday Times being the biggest proponent of Project Fear. I think you'll find caveats a plenty in these reports.

---------- Post added at 21:10 ---------- Previous post was at 21:08 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35957345)
But why are they warning of potential issues? Are they all conspiring to mislead the public or are they trying to be realistic on what is a probable outcome?

I think that they are describing a worse case scenario which I'm sure won't arise. But if you don't know what a worst case scenario looks like, there's less motivation to avoid it.

nomadking 30-07-2018 21:37

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35957345)
Did you see the link I posted here? It is an interesting article fact checking Sir Michael Rawlins warning. It would be interesting to know you thoughts on it ..

---------- Post added at 20:53 ---------- Previous post was at 20:51 ----------



But why are they warning of potential issues? Are they all conspiring to mislead the public or are they trying to be realistic on what is a probable outcome?

Ultimately we can initially wave through anything from the EU in whatever way we do now. It is only when we start to apply our our specific regulations and tariffs that we would have to have any further checks.

1andrew1 30-07-2018 23:16

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35957357)
Ultimately we can initially wave through anything from the EU in whatever way we do now. It is only when we start to apply our our specific regulations and tariffs that we would have to have any further checks.

In the event of a no-deal WTO rules would prevent our giving special treatment to any single trading partner. So we couldn't wave EU goods through without doing the same to those from China, India, Russia, US, Albania, etc.

Sephiroth 30-07-2018 23:21

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Hence I expect there to be a fudge. Damien agrees with me!

1andrew1 30-07-2018 23:32

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35957372)
Hence I expect there to be a fudge. Damien agrees with me!

Beano! Sorry BINO. ;)

Meanwhile, a Sky survey has some bad news for Theresa May with just 10% of the British public thinking the Government is doing a good job on Brexit.

Quote:

British public opinion has shifted sharply against Brexit, according to a new Sky Data poll.

The survey reveals:

:: The government is haemorrhaging trust regarding the Brexit negotiations

:: Two-thirds of the public - including a majority of Leave voters - now think the outcome of Brexit negotiations will be bad for Britain

:: A significant increase in the proportion who think Brexit will negatively affect themselves personally, the economy and the country overall

:: Most people would like to see a referendum asking between the deal suggested by the government, no deal, and remaining in the EU.
https://news.sky.com/story/public-op...veals-11453220

Quote:

:: Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,466 Sky customers online 20-23 July 2018. Data are weighted to the profile of the population. Sky Data is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For full tables, please click here.

nomadking 30-07-2018 23:40

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35957371)
In the event of a no-deal WTO rules would prevent our giving special treatment to any single trading partner. So we couldn't wave EU goods through without doing the same to those from China, India, Russia, US, Albania, etc.

Then how does the EU impose it's own restrictions at the moment? Effectively we currently give "special treatment" to certain countries ie the EU, so how is that allowed?

1andrew1 30-07-2018 23:50

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35957375)
Then how does the EU impose it's own restrictions at the moment? Effectively we currently give "special treatment" to certain countries ie the EU, so how is that allowed?

So, we are currently part of the EU which is a WTO member. When we leave the EU, we become a WTO member in our own right.
If we leave the EU without a deal (aka "clean break", "hard Brexit") then we trade on WTO terms and have to treat every WTO member the same hence talk of delays.

1andrew1 31-07-2018 21:37

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Bit more information here for those wishing to grow their understanding of how Dover might be impacted. This comes from impact reports from the local (Conservative) authorities there.
Quote:

13-mile lorry park may last 'many years' after Brexit, impact reports reveal
Brexit impact reports from local councils, obtained by Sky News, reveal exasperation at government planning for March 2019.
According to internal Brexit impact reports from two Conservative-run local councils, the conversion of four lanes of the M20 motorway into a 13-mile (20km) long lorry park [Project Brock] could be in place for a number of years after the UK's departure from the EU...
Worryingly, the Government is trying to hide this preparation from voters.
Quote:

The government has suggested the need for this disruption is not part of its Brexit plans, and the UK's departure from the EU was not mentioned in the written statement announcing the plan or the consultation document.
This does not appear to be correct, however.
Local businesses have been told it will take up to two weeks to activate the plan, unlike the few minutes Operation Stack requires following news of disruption in Calais.
The only plausible use for such a system is in anticipation of a structural increase in customs and regulatory checks at the UK border following Brexit in March next year.
Kent County Council also point out in its report that "Brock" stands for "Brexit Operations Across Kent".
https://news.sky.com/story/13-mile-l...eveal-11454991

Hom3r 31-07-2018 21:54

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
:D13 miles thats a normal day on the M25, thanks to lane hogers on idiots holding their phones.


Project fear yet again.:rolleyes:

pip08456 31-07-2018 22:20

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35957376)
So, we are currently part of the EU which is a WTO member. When we leave the EU, we become a WTO member in our own right.
If we leave the EU without a deal (aka "clean break", "hard Brexit") then we trade on WTO terms and have to treat every WTO member the same hence talk of delays.

That implies no WTO member can make a separate trade deal with any other country.

It also assumes trade deals have not already been brokered elsewhere and just awaiting Brexit to be signed.

Damien 31-07-2018 22:40

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35957525)
That implies no WTO member can make a separate trade deal with any other country.

It also assumes trade deals have not already been brokered elsewhere and just awaiting Brexit to be signed.

Trade agreements are considered an exception to WTO most-favoured-nation rules (there are a few others too).

pip08456 01-08-2018 00:01

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35957526)
Trade agreements are considered an exception to WTO most-favoured-nation rules (there are a few others too).

I already knew that. Andrew likes his sweeping statements though.

Sephiroth 01-08-2018 07:11

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)
 
It seems to me that we (Guvmin) have pursued a special deal policy (aka cherry picking) when all we really need is a Canada deal which they have offered. Take that and get on with it.


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