Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Or tough titties to democracy unless of course you genuinely believe democracy really is as simplistic as a vote in a box every five years, for me that's not active participation, knowing why you're ticking that box, being empowered enough to have the knowledge to be confident of your choice and realising the opportunities each choice offers is democracy. For me the problem is not so much the result as I was never a massive remainer but it's how we got there as a people, would I be moaning if the result was reversed, maybe not as much but I'm sure I would be.

No he might not have but nigel farage would've been

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/rememb...endum-5963900/

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Just watched the whole farage 8 min EU speech I have to say I thought it was a good speech, seemed to me he was fair with them despite them laughing at him but then all I can say is it just shows the mentality of the EU members.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Chants (sung to 'Rule Brittania') have been heard in London with the words "Rule Brittania, Brittania Rules the waves, first we'll kick out the Poles and then the Gays".

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Leave did not lie about immigration. You can't get the numbers down while you are a member of the EU and have to accept freedom of movement. They did not lie about control either. It stands to reason if you leave the EU, you take back control of your laws, borders, immigration trade and finances. The only lie I see where money is concerned was the £350 million for the NHS. In the last week, they did stress that this was the starting figure and that we do get some of it back in rebates and hand-outs.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Apart from the fact we have had full control over 50% of immigration that was outside the EU and it looks like we are heading for membership of the EEA which require free movement.

So what will have changed?

J

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

That was always going to happen. The losers need a scapegoat and seem to have two. However, things are moving regarding the EU exit. DC has been telling them that we have to have some kind of deal without freedom of movement as part of it. He said they must let us kerb immigration now. BBC News today. The Government are putting together a team of top Civil Servants together to handle negotiations. It can't be done overnight.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I doubt that the UK will be expelling any EU nationals who are working here.

The Leave campaigners wanted to introduce some controls over the currently unlimited immigration.

Part of the problem lies with the UK government's failure to address the overwhelming of communities by high immigrant populations and their associated impact on education, health and employment services.

Such areas need additional resources which can be rapidly deployed so that local British Nationals are not disadvantaged.

The government also needs to take direct action with respect to the 5% of the population who are unemployed. Getting these people into work will reduce the need for immigrants to come as there will be fewer jobs.

Having said that we will still need a number of immigrants as they have skills not found in our unemployed, who may need retraining.

Hostile action against immigrants and gays is not only unacceptable it does them a disservice as they all have a positive part to play in improving our society, given that many immigrants come here to set up businesses and to employ local workers.

A number of our existing businesses would struggle and things would be worse if foreign nationals were expelled, so such a move is counterproductive.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Exactly, so we have to have a deal that does not involve EEA or free movement.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I think it is unlikely that the EU or indeed Europe will allow access to the single market without acceptance of the freedom of movement principle.

We can only reduce numbers by:-

a) limiting access to benefits which we are already doing

b) getting our unemployed into jobs so there are no jobs available, however that won't stop people coming to set up their own businesses

c) applying the Australian style system to rest of the world immigration

d)removing foreign nationals who are guilty of crimes and other undesirables seeking to promote radicalisation and rebellion

e)having a better plan to deal with resource provision in areas where there are high immigrant populations so that local British nationals are not disadvantaged

Many voters voted to leave because they were unable to get their children into the school of their choice or were unable to get doctors' appointments due to demand or could not get a job.

These were issues in the hands of national and local government and their failure to deal with these problems effectively has made their lives intolerable and has led to resentment of immigrants.

The government will have to have a better plan, because better conditions for British nationals in immigrant areas will lead to greater acceptance especially as immigrants appear to be willing to do jobs that UK nationals are not willing or able to do.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Do we actually need to have access to the single market? What's to stop us just trading with the EU countries we trade with now like Germany, for example? I don't think we trade with all countries in the single market so why have access to it? I'm not sure how it would work but you could have private deals with the countries we do trade with in the EU surely?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Not sure if there is a way of doing that given that the EU countries and EEA countries require freedom of movement.

Angela Merkel said Germany will continue to trade with the UK but there was no mention of on what terms.

Even it would be possible it would take a long time to negotiate all the deals and we have to wonder what the consequences would be in the meantime.

A lot of people use Amazon which is based in Luxembourg. I wonder what the impact of Brexit will be. Will Amazon stop trading with the UK or will it be business as usual with possible variations in price?

A lot of our reservations are based on the uncertainty and we need some concrete facts and decisions to decide our own course of action. Until those facts and decisions emerge, the uncertainty will continue and we will just have to watch and wait.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I don't see what the fascination with the single market is ,it just brings with it EU control of our workforce ,working regulations and adds to bureaucracy,something we are fighting against


How does America,Australia,China India etc ,etc manage ,they all trade with the EU countries but do not have freedom of movement .We do not need free trade ,it would be better of course but not at any expense

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I think one of the biggest issues will be passporting of financial services within the EU, financial services are around 12% of GDP currently and without the ability to conduct these services the finance sector will take a massive hit.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/P...g/default.aspx

It as possible to get these rights as per Switzerland but it won't be cheap even if the EU counties are of a mind to let us.

J

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I think ideally people would like to go back to the original trading arrangement without the political overtones i.e. political union and the EU army and without dictation from the EU as to how we handle immigration numbers.

I'm just hoping that the situation with the Syrians has made them see what happens when masses of desperate immigrants arrive in your country in numbers that you are not prepared for.

There needs to be some arrangement which give countries more time to provide the necessary resources and get them in place before immigrants arrive.

Like all these things we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

^^ This.

Even if there are some tarriffs does it really matter if you have to pay a few extra pennies for stinky French cheese? Especially as there are perfectly good stinky English cheeses.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

As they are on line traders I doubt they would cease to trade with one of their biggest markets. I use Wish which is an on line trader in China but though it takes a bit of time to get goods, they are quite good. He he I trade with China so why not the country? No I think Amazon will be ok.

---------- Post added at 08:52 ---------- Previous post was at 08:51 ----------

Nor me, I don't think we need it really.

---------- Post added at 08:56 ---------- Previous post was at 08:52 ----------

Indeed. As I've said it wouldn't be in their interests to slap tariffs on us nor us on them. I think a deal can be reached with individual countries in the EU without freedom of movement and the single market. It just needs planning as I can't see Germany ceasing to trade with us no matter what the deal is.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

The problem with tariffs is when you hit some sort of scale. Let's say a car manufacturer gets hit with a 1% tariff when moving components around Europe during their production, a common way of working, that would be unsustainable for a major business. Anyone here would move their pensions to get an additional 1% and companies will move production to mainland Europe if it reduces their operation costs.

Paying 1% more for French cheese isn't the problem.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Problem was staying in the EU it was going one way total control. It is OK saying well the UK had a special status we all know well some know that it wouldn't have stayed special. It was just to appease the UK government to make us feel special and the EU as we know was manipulating that status at free will.

Just look at the amount of money handed over to Greece? How much of that was or could have been in Osborne's budget for our economy? How much or how many times have we lost out under that status some of it I guess we'll never know.

With the way the EU was going this referendum was going to happen sooner or later anyway. There might be talk of some businesses move out of the UK Vodafone as an example but well this is just a clear out or reshuffle and probably had every intention of moving anyway. Whatever company falls or goes there will be 10 others waiting to pick the pieces up.

Like Farage said we are open for business if you want to cut off millions of people you trade with and have mass job losses your end then so be it, it won't be the UK that causes your down fall but your own selfless acts.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

The single market lets you treat the entire area it encompasses as one big economic area rather than an external one with which you trade. The difference between someone in London trading with Liverpool as opposed to New York. Liverpool is internal and transactions are simple but New York, even with a trade agreement, can require more paperwork, different regulations and maybe costs depending on the terms of any trade deal.

A company based in London at the moment has pan-European access with the only barrier being language. They can sell just as easily to Berlin as they can to Manchester. Buy/Sell/Recruit/open an office, it's all as if it were the same nation. Many major companies have the same company working across Europe. They may have a HR department in Poland, a legal department in London and a marking department in Berlin all under one legal incorporation and one form of regulation. Their registration anywhere within the 27 (actually the EEA too IIRC) opens up all of Europe to them.

It's very different to a trade deal and many on here still see business as the physical buying or selling of finished goods when in reality a lot of it is economic activity happening across boards which are hard to quantity in import/export figures. This is especially true of services which is our biggest industry, i.e how do you put a hard figure on a legal firm in London consulting for a company in Italy in such figures?

This is why Vodafone , Visa and banks are looking to move jobs out of Britain if we exit the single market.

Maybe it's worth leaving the single market to free ourselves of EU laws and to control immigration but we shouldn't dismiss the fact we will be losing something tangible and beneficial to the economy by leaving the single market. There has been a frequent misunderstanding of what the single market is during this referendum and many people who seem to think it's only about tariff-free trade for physical goods.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

As long everyone is happy of the impact of this, our imports will become more expensive to the EU for example, what effect will this have I don't know but it's not going to make it better.

The exclusion of our financial services from the passporting regulations of the EEA / single market has the potential to have a massive impact

J

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Interesting, Damien, thanks for that.

Maybe giving up the single market in favour of the private deals suggested by Big Brian is the way to go especially if we can do it without trade tariffs.

Also gives us the opportunity to explore bigger and better deals with the Commonwealth, China, Australia, India etc. Maybe some deals with countries outside the EU may be better and we won't be so reliant on the EU.

I still wonder what the EU will do about either the non-payment or reduced payment of the UK contribution.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

That would be none, only Euro zone countries were liable.

So why would major global companies have left the UK anyway if we had stayed. There was no indication on companies just wanting to move for the sake of it.

It's not so much cutting of trade just the fact that this trade will become more expensive outside the single market

As for a special deal just with the UK why would they treat us better then the US? The US trade with the EU is twice the size of the UK.

On top of this we will still need to comply with all of the rules and regulations of trading there, CE marking as a starter among lots of other things .

In addition if we say our rules and regulations will be ours to decide and so will start to drift away from the EU this would mean companies potentially having to produce a special UK version (this was the whole point of harmonization) and I can't see suppliers absorbing all of those costs.

J

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Cos they want the security as they see it of freedom of movement and trade.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

No the point implied was that companies were going to leave the UK anyway not because we voted to leave.

J

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Vodafone are considering moving their HQ from the UK:

Vodafone could move London HQ outside UK post-Brexit

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Yes,it may be better to invoke A50 ASAP. Had leave (or even the Government) actually done any planning rather than just infer we would have more money to spend on the NHS and would reduce immigration, we may have been in a position to do so without severe financial repercussions.

Also, as asked before, if you aren't concerned with Race, why introduce your own into the thread?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

They have a Bigger EU customer base and employ more staff in the EU, but my point is they would have had every intention to move anyway. I wasn't implying they would stop trading with the UK they would have to have some companies over here anyway to maintain UK trade and customers unless they want to cut ties with 18m people then so be it.

Like I said companies like this are like pop up shops one goes down another one pops up to take it's place.

but If the EU was that good then why do a lot of companies offshore their calls centres to Indian?

It doesn't wash with me if these big companies want to move out to the EU then let them when the whole thing collapses they'll want to come running back and find someone else has already moved in.

---------- Post added at 10:48 ---------- Previous post was at 10:43 ----------


Cameron has an issue with stirring the Racist pot as well. He's even told Brussels that basically 50% of the country are Racists. Its just a shame he forgot to mention the rest :erm::rolleyes:

I guess Leave couldn't do any planning only possibilities till the referendum was decided as the EU said they will not discuss any deals till A50 is made so here we are they are in talks now.

Problems with some people is they want everything done yesterday but you can't fix "stupid"

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I think Leave could not do any planning because Cameron debarred Brexit campaigners from using government agencies.

However, even with all the Government departments available Cameron and Osborne were not willing to give us concrete facts.

George Osborne could have quoted annual figures for the gross amount we pay to the EU, our rebate and the amount receive back in grants. He didn't.

Cameron could have been honest about Turkey's entry to the EU. He wasn't.

The whole thing was a shambles with Cameron giving a totally wrong impression of the UK situation to the EU who thought the vote to stay in was a done deal. No wonder they were surprised and angry.

It was a pity that Nigel Farage chose to rub the EU referendum decision in the faces of the Euro MPs instead of explaining rationally that David Cameron had got it wrong and had conveyed the wrong impression to the EU, which he is still doing now.

Fixing this will take time and patience.

What we need now is calm, common sense and mutual respect for the rights and views of others.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I've just read some articles that claim to indicate the EU's position.

It's.... genius.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Any details, Ignitionnet?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Oh if France get their way, and it's a rock and hard place position that the new PM will be in, a lot of people can look forward to enjoying their newly found sovereignty with tax rises and/or public services cuts.

This is the 'word' in the City of London. Love or hate it financial services are the biggest contributor to our tax base.

As I said - genius. Cynical, evil genius.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Vodafone are a pop up shop :rolleyes:

they have 144 million customers world wide, 19.5 million uk customers, I did't realize multi billion pound companies are just waiting to pop into the UK as setup shop.

55% of their profits came from the EU only 11% from the UK, but I guess that doesn't matter as there all of these other companies just waiting in the wings to replace the all of the losses the country will suffer.

J

---------- Post added at 11:45 ---------- Previous post was at 11:42 ----------

Hey what will it matter as all of the leavers are saying it's only bankers etc. and there are plenty of other companies just waiting to replace 12% of the UK's GDP

J

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Isn't it odd how not that long ago folks were banging on about how great it'd be if the banks and big fat corporations took their business and 'immorality' elsewhere yet now people are trembling at the very prospect that they 'might'. Big companies 'threatening' to move in order to influence policy isn't new, it's what they do to get the best deal for themselves and people panicking prematurely about it doesn't work in our favour it works in theirs. Some people really do need to get a grip of what's going on here and calm down a little... well a lot actually, it's pathetic.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Fortunately, it's not a deal we have to accept.

We could accept freedom of movement but manage it better so that Brits get a better deal.

If we have to pay less then the extra money could be spent addressing the worries and concerns of the UK population, which are only there because of mismanagement of immigration arrangements by national and local government.

Our schools and NHS could get extra money and No 10 could take a direct interest in finding out why our nationals are unemployed.

Some may not want a job ever so cancel their benefits.

Some may lack skills so provide compulsory training,

Some may have skills but are living in the wrong area so provide re-location grants.

Some may be unemployable so provide a revamped version of Remploy for people with special needs allowing them to contribute.

There's no reason why anyone should be unemployed because even just on this forum alone there are plenty of people with ideas as to how to improve things.

All we need is a government with a practical plan to get things done and not rely on private employment firms who do it for profit not for the good of the country.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

And in the real world where we don't get everything we want...

The rest of your post is a scary scenario. That'd be a massive expansion of the state that we can't afford.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Jamie - I'm guessing you voted in because you have a bad outlook for a better UK...how do you think it would have gone down when the EU moved to having its own forces and being one nation and the UK moving closer ties to becoming part of the EU?

It was only a matter of time IN or OUT with them our special status was subject to how nice they wanted to play in the current climate once things got moving along in the EU we would have had to have moved with them our special status was not unlimited.

There are plenty of mobile phone providers that is what I am saying. Vodafone might make money a lot of money but customers will just move to another provider should they go plenty of room to shop around and someone waiting to take them.

I'm sure VM wouldn't hold back if sky left the UK in taking their customers would they.

Every knows this was going to be a rocky ride after leaving we have pretty much peeved off 27 member states. once we have ridden through the waves and the dust settles we'll know what better position the UK is. it is way to early to tell anything it hasn't even been a week since the referendum and the IN crowd want blood.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

No-one said anything about Vodafone not doing business in the UK anymore. They were referring to them moving their legal entity out of the UK.

The result being a loss of tax revenues and jobs.

Companies like HSBC, Vodafone, etc, being domiciled in the UK brings a not inconsiderable amount of money.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

It would be both foolish and arrogant to think we'll get everything we want out of the EU. Anyway we don't want everything. We don't want Political Union, Freedom of Movement or in a growing number of cases, the single Market. The best that could happen if we don't accept Freedom of Movement are private deals between EU countries.

---------- Post added at 12:17 ---------- Previous post was at 12:14 ----------

And they won't do it unless they don't like the final deal from the EU.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

We may or may not have been able to carry on with our special position within the EU, if we had to become part of an EU army or part of a super state (neither certain) and that point we could have come out.

It's the fallacy and misrepresentation of the EU from the cost, democratic process through to immigration and the blase attitude to the potential impact on the economy that i find most worrying at the attitude held by some that leaving the EU will a panacea for all of the counties problems.

As as for Vodafone leaving, the UK part of their operation will stay, their headquarters moving will take all of that income, tax returns etc. and this cannot be replaced by other providers.

The best possible outcome is a zero net gain in this instance and we have taken a huge gamble without anyone showing any hard defined economic
upsides to leaving the EU.

J

J

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

You can't make bilateral deals with EU countries from outside. Our inability to make deals with third parties was one of people's objections.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Not sure, who you are replying to, but if it's me then I should say I do understand that we won't get everything we want but we might get more if we accept freedom of movement and demonstrate practically to Europe that we are not a nation of racists and that we are intending to continue to trade with them.

As for the other points mentioned, this is not something that would be implemented or fixed overnight but we can't continue to carry 5% of the population in the current financial environment.

Any changes would be gradual over a period of time because as you said we haven't the finances to do this all in one go but we do need to make a start.

I remember seeing a TV programme about the young unemployed where they followed 5 young people one of whom stated that he was quite happy to receive his job seekers allowance because it meant that, as he was living at home, he could go out boozing every night with his friends and never have to work.

I also remember another TV programme which reported on the closure of Remploy and the emotional impact it had on the employees most of whom had special needs. It resonated with me as my sister has Down's syndrome.

Things do have to change but it will be by a process of gradual evolution not rapid revolution.

If the French get their way it may well be the other way round.

---------- Post added at 13:36 ---------- Previous post was at 12:29 ----------

Agreed. A period of calm reflection is required.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Britain wins Brexit breathing space at gloomy EU summit

Brussels: EU leaders have given Britain breathing space by accepting it needed time to absorb a shock Brexit vote before triggering a divorce but insisted the crunch move could not wait months.

A humiliated Prime Minister David Cameron came face-to-face with European colleagues for the first time since last week's vote at a Brussels summit which leaders said was "sad" but pragmatic.

Trillions of dollars have been wiped off world markets since Thursday's vote to leave the EU, while the United Kingdom's future has been thrown into doubt after Scotland said it would push for a new independence referendum.

Read More Here: http://zeenews.india.com/news/europe...t_1901332.html

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

That's a very positive and most welcome gesture but we need the Conservative party to treat this matter with a sense of urgency and get the new PM elected as quickly as possible and to provide some feedback to the EU to show we are moving things along.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Britain "wins" Brexit breathing space? I see it differently. The EU should not try to dictate timetables to the UK.

We have a government leadership contest, a labour party in crisis, a possible further Scottish referendum. These are serious times for our future; times in which the EU will become less relevant and we cannot rush through the process on their say so.

We are taking back control and will do things in good time; at our pace and when we have a government in place to take care of business.

In the process, the EU will need to take a good look at itself and divest itself of those who would turn a drama into a crisis by trying to exploit the referendum "split" of opinion.

The vote is cast and decided; there can be no re-runs. All of the UK should be united behind the decision.

And I would say to Scotland, choose your friends carefully.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

We know at least the point they're starting negotiations from, and they're unequivocal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

On the happier side and as expected:

So no 'spite'. If anything if I'm honest I've been pleasantly surprised with the reaction from across the water. Regretful, some sadness but businesslike which is about the best we could've hoped for under the circumstances. Fingers crossed, and we should be fine as long as Farage doesn't go on another rant, gloating and being obnoxious, it remains that way.

Perhaps more relevant than just hearing it collectively, Merkel saying the same thing to her own parliament too:

She's also said that those who think the UK somehow isn't leaving the EU are fooling themselves, and she is of course right on that score.

EDIT: Just to add Viktor Orban, PM of Hungary who's been pretty aggressive in his criticism of EU migration policy has said much the same regarding free movement. We will get no special dispensations if we want full single market access.

I refer back to http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/35846878-post732.html

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

So my understanding of it is that if they allow freedom of movement we can trade. but I am guessing there will be other policies in place?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I think that the EU has realised that they too have got it wrong and over -reacted. Mrs Merkel's suggestion to play nice is working its way into proceedings.

We'll probably have to accept free movement if we want access to the single market and to keep our banks however we can rework our UK planning so that the problems caused by free movement can be dealt with more effectively and efficiently.

It's good news about the Border agreement which is a sign that common sense and a modicum of good will have entered the proceedings.

As for the "privileges" , I think we knew that no country gets the privileges without paying a price. Just wondering how much they will expect us to contribute and if it will be less, the same or more than we are paying now?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Less. The rest of the EU were jealous of the deal we had as far as contributions go, that'll be gone, so the amount may end up somewhat surprising.

We will have an 'itemised' bill, as it were, with contributions to various EU programmes if we want to participate in them, which we will, alongside the EEA grant.

I can almost see the UKIP posters complaining about still sending money to the EU now.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

And we won't even notice the hit. It wont be obvious, there won't be a mass exodus of banks, what there will be is when a bank opens a new office or department or replaces one it won't be here, it'll be in Dublin or frankfurt they'll move without anyone noticing. No one likes them anyway. It'll be like this Heathrow Gatwick saga whilst we mess about pandering to self interest skippol is quietly hoovering up large amounts of traffic

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

FTSE 100 soars 3.02% today, wiping out post-Brexit slump

The FTSE 100 is currently trading up 3.02%, which brings its gains across two-days to 5.7% .

The 5.7% rally wipes out its post-Brext two-day rout, which saw the blue chip index plunge 5.7%.



Update :

FTSE 100 Index
INDEXFTSE: UKX - Jun 29, 4:26 PM GMT+1
6,334.59 Price increase + 194.20 (3.16%)

Onwards and Upwards ;)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I suppose we will have to weigh up the details of the bill and see what options we have.

I think the big mistake of the last government was not explaining clearly to the people our terms of entry to the EU. Instead of giving the full details they concentrated on the "Project Fear" ones designed to get you to vote to stay.

Had they done so they could have detailed clearly in unemotional terms what the consequences of leaving really were because we would have understood the conditions of our contract with the EU.

As a consequence voters were not able to make a truly informed choice resulting in an unexpected EU referendum outcome.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Ya. The FTSE 100 does most of its business outside the UK, so may benefit from Sterling's weakness.

The top 5 firms on the FTSE 100 are Royal Dutch Shell, HSBC, British American Tobacco, BP and GlaxoSmithKline. None of these are especially dependent on the UK's economy.

The FTSE 250 is a more domestic index and a better guide to the economy's state.

We seem to be over the initial shock, which is nice. The economy has realised that we're still in the EU.

The next big event will probably be when it becomes clearer how our deal with the EU will look.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Slight increase in the 250 as well but still another + 10% gain to stabilize so it's on the right track Mr Ignitionnet :)

FTSE 250 Index
INDEXFTSE: MCX - Jun 29, 4:35 PM GMT+1
16,002.90 Price increase 499.84 + (3.22%)



Onwards and Upwards :):)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Yes. The final one being a Stuff You Policy where we become a Free Trade economy. Having said that, it wouldn't be in the interest of the EU for us to stop trading altogether.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

It's good news that things are starting to stabilise and improve.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

FT has something here: https://next.ft.com/content/869a271c...1-f39d50872710

The prospect of EEA is helping.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Every thing i have read the last few days seems to be all about signing back into the EU after we leave ,stay in the single market ,pay loads of money to the EU ,retain free movement ,what the hell was that referendum for ? it must have been a way to kill of the Labour party and get shot of Scotland cos it sure as hell doesn't look like we'll be leaving the EU .

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Leaving the EU meant different things to different people. The people taking over the Tory party were most concerned about sovereignty, especially Gove, and range from either not fussed by migration to pretty positive on migration. To them a EEA deal is a worthwhile win. Of course cynically maybe others thought they would lose but further their career and now want the easiest option possible. ;)

It's UKIP and a handful of Tory and Labour politicians whose main problem was freedom of movement.

None of them care about the payment to the EU imo. It's nothing compared to the size of government budgets especially if you factor in the boost of the single market.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Shhhhhhhhhh FGS!!!!!

We wouldn't want anyone to know would we, wouldn't want to do anything to stifle the hysteria that's filled the airwaves lately. What'll all those roving reporters have left to serve up if there's no panic, no fear?...

Watching/listening to some of the stuff I've heard over the last few days, anyone would think we're experiencing the fall of Rome. The boring reality is that the markets will continue to rise and fall along with the value of our currency but there's no sexy headlines in good news so it'll be carry on panicking whenever the markets miss a beat.

On the subject of hate, I was just listening to Margaret Becket on LBC talking about the 'hate' being unleashed by Momentum supporters protesting about the bid to remove Corbyn. Apparently he and McDonnell still weren't too bothered about it when it was moist recently brought to their attention. Odd how that hasn't had quite the media attention that the actions of a fairly small number of racist morons have but there again, it doesn't do to have a balanced argument when there's a bandwagon to be jumped upon.

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We can leave the EU properly but we'll have to give up trading with Europe and trade with rest of the world instead.

However, Scotland would probably go for a referendum and maybe Northern Ireland and Wales will follow too.

Many of the immigrant related problems are really failures by the UK government and local government to come up with a plan to manage immigrants in a way that offsets the disadvantages experienced by UK nationals.

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I would say the voting public are wanting freedom of movement gotten rid of and no money going to Europe ,to them that is what they voted for ,it's certainly what i voted for

---------- Post added at 18:42 ---------- Previous post was at 18:39 ----------

Nobody says we won't be able to trade with Europe ,we will, just not for free.

Should also add that that it shouldn't be that costly either since we already have the required standards in place ,the only extra expense would be a tax which all other countries have to pay anyway

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My sentiments exactly. I don't want any part of it except trade.

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I voted on David Cameron's deal, which I considered to be derisory.

The EU seems to have a lot of conditions built in to their trade arrangement and unfortunately a lot of them are not liked by the UK public.

David Cameron is right that we cannot have the benefits of the single market without accepting conditions which the public feel are unacceptable.

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It's be bloody typical if our chumps give us what will be an arguably worse deal than the one we left . I wouldn't put it past them.

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Passporting is not about banks moving headquarters, it's about the inability of UK banks to work within the EU, how would we not notice the loss to GDP?

J

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Well yes, hence the problem.

To me it seems there are two options on the table now no matter what Boris is saying to win the leadership:

1. EEA - We sign up to the four freedoms, essentially single market member but with free movement. Least disruptive to the economy.
2. Trade deal - No single market access, no free movement but this option will be the worst economically

The fantasy of having the single market without migration has to be cast aside now. The new Tory leader is going to have to choose what he or she wants to deliver on. Do they want to risk hurting the economy or do they want to break the promise on migration?

Both options though allow them to say they've freed the UK from the ECJ.

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We could as Big Brian says do private deals with those European countries that still want to deal with us but I'm guessing that most of Europe is either in the EU or in the EEA.

I suppose we might be able to do deals with countries like Switzerland and others in a similar state but would the deals be global deals covering all products or will we have to do several trade deals with each country for specific products. Germany may do a car deal with us so it can sell their cars to us and we can sell ours to them, but the deal might just be limited to cars.

The EU will no doubt have worked out that we could access the single market indirectly by simply making deals with individual countries in the EU and have probably come up with a strategy to block that.

Ordinary shoppers may still be able to access European products through agencies like Amazon who are based in the EU and who sell to the world.

There's also the issue of bank passporting which allows our banks to operate in Europe...or not!!

It's all very much in the air at the moment.

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Honestly there's a few folks here who'd make exceptionally poor trade deal negotiators I must say... :D

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Hi Osem,
I think we are just debating possibilities at the moment. It could be that the EU is acting tough running a bluff but will actually cave to do a deal if push comes to shove.

We are only going on the limited info coming out of the EU at the moment. We'll only find out the truth when the negotiations start and we'll really need our poker faces to see us through.

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I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficient wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.
Thoughts?

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Yes of course, we are doing just that but national panic doesn't assist our position around the negotiating table one little bit and people, especially the media, really need to realise that. If they want a decent deal at the end of all of this they have to play the game the right way and hold our nerve.

There's a deluge of bad news being 'hidden' within the EU right now and as it comes to light people are going to start remembering why we were so unhappy with the EU in the first place. I should be remembered that a good many of those who voted to remain weren't exactly overjoyed by the EU's track record or direction of travel, they just thought it was a slightly safer bet. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Brussels elite...

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Yes please!
The UK is like a light to a moth currently.

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Since when has "free movement" been a pre-condition of trade deals around the world? Trade deals are about trade.

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No member of the EU can make their own trade deals with third parties. That was one of the arguments to leave, our inability to do so.

---------- Post added at 20:00 ---------- Previous post was at 19:59 ----------

Just in case anyone fancies a flutter.

When Will "Article 50" be Triggered?

https://www.skybet.com/politics/euro...event/19451469

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IIRC there isn't a large amount of benefit money going to EU migrants. The vast majority come because they can earn a lot more here than they do at home.

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In successful negotiations, it needs to be win-win, and give and take; if we gain, and others lose (and vice-versa), it just leads to discontent and a breakdown in negotiations...

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Both sides have yet to get into the real detail but the wording from the EU was interesting in that they "would fight" to not allow the uk to trade without free movement, they are in the position to insist on it but are not using that wording. There is more going on behind the scenes right now that nobody except those involved know about and until we get a pm with a spine and invoke article 50 uncertainty will continue and I think that's what is behind David Cameron's behaviour since the referendum.

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Seems unlikely.

http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=457
http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=849



---------- Post added at 20:15 ---------- Previous post was at 20:08 ----------

What wording was that?

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/pr...ing-statement/

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A guy lives down the road, doesn't work and looks after his Dad full time. He has been here 6 years and drives a 16 plate Passat.

I pass him most days on my way to work...

There's lots like him here and it overwhelmingly influenced my vote.

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We really shouldn't invoke Article 50 until we're ready to do so. This has been requested by the civil service, who don't have the expertise on trade deals in place, and the Leave campaign. If Cameron left now and just appointed Boris via some undemocratic loophole then it still wouldn't be activated because Boris himself has said we should wait.

You don't set a timer and enter talks until you know what you are asking for and how best to achieve it. The Government know actually needs to do the work, the thinking, the planning for this complicated process.

This is serious business. You don't just put on a pair of union jack y fronts, march into Brussels and make demands.

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Really? That's Nigel Farage's strategy stuffed.

Something else on free movement, even less equivocal than the official statement.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEX-16-2357_en.htm

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Disregard it was on the BBC news app attributed to Angela Merkel but it's gone so not sure what happened.

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I'm suggesting that we do away with the EU rules malarkey. We set the rules. They can have their cherished free movement but we get to decide what benefits (if any) people coming here get. That means that someone who can work as a doctor or in IT and earn a decent wage to support themselves is welcome but someone who wants tocome here without many skills, only earning enough to get top up benefits and qualify for council housing would no longer qualify for hand outs and housing.
We don't discriminate over who comes here, we simply make it uneconomic for low skilled people to bother.

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Dont' worry. If we just keep calm, the EU will see reason and give us the trade deal we want without free movement :) We're Great Britain after all, they'll see the error of their ways ..

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I'd agree but... given that there is a fairly significant degree of uncertainty that as more time passes, pressing the button seems more unlikely, then maybe it is in our interests to at least hit the button now - while we can.

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Except that doesn't meet their definition of free movement and per the above every indication so far is that they will not deviate from this. You can't agree something with someone then change the definition of it to suit your own needs.

If we want restrictions we will likely in turn see restrictions in access to the Single Market. Chances are those restrictions would be on services, and the simplest way is financial services.

We have the biggest Euro foreign exchange. We won't even be in the European Union but want to remain the biggest trader of their currency.

It's really not a great stretch to see the scenario I mentioned earlier where France tie us in knots and we watch 12%, possibly more, of our tax base disappear to save £600m a year in tax credits.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:43 ----------

Rule Brittania! Brittania waives the rules.

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"This is serious business. You don't just put on a pair of union jack y fronts, march into Brussels and make demands.". No really omg how deluded I've been :rolleyes: and you think the civil service weren't preparing for all eventualities there will be plans made and they will be waiting for a politician to choose which one they want to proceed with. Also it's rarely our politicians that deal with the international negotiations it's the diplomatic staff politicians make an appearance at the begining and the end and take the credit.

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The civil service weren't prepared for the result. You can find references to this all over the Internet so I'm not even going to start copy/pasting.

Preparations started Friday.

EDIT: Actually here's one reference - this is about as boring as it comes - https://www.civilserviceworld.com/ar...gency-planning

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I did although the caveat to that is the drop in Sterling. FTSE 250 is down 7.7% I think but the bleeding as stopped. Sterling hasn't dropped since Monday.

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Politicians weren't prepared I haven't found anything specifically stating that no plans were drawn up by the civil service or the diplomats but if you've got some I would appreciate them as my googling is not brilliant at the minute.

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Well you keep saying a PM needs to get a spine and issue article 50 despite all the advice not to do so. I am not sure how you imagine that would go.

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We have two years to negotiate if we can't achieve an acceptable deal in that time we're screwed anyway.

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It might work. They may have to compromise. It's just an idea....

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BTW EEA has a break on freedom of movement...

---------- Post added at 21:29 ---------- Previous post was at 21:08 ----------

Interestingly I think if your pension is largely invested in international markets or FTSE 100 companies then it's probably gone up as the value of those investments relative to the pound has increased....

I suspect though that inflation will eat into that, especially given how much we import, and if it recovers the inverse would happen but it's still something that I found interesting.

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Just read a financial analayst's report and shorted the pound against the dollar.

If people are going to bugger our economy for the next 3-4 years the least I can do is make a few quid off it. :tu:

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With a fair few other EU countries now saying that they want a referendum on things like the Euro and immigration, it looks like our leave vote has given them the confidence to speak out.

Hopefully the EU will decide to give in, rather than risk collapse.

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We'll see. The EU will either give us a hard time to discourage others or make some small reform to placate those still inside the club and maybe extend that to us too.