Re: Brexit
 

This tweet summed up the shambles at the heart of this government.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Archbishop of Canterbury prepares for five days of prayer after Brexit:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...d3073d361eaeef

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Well that's a comfort. :rolleyes:

He'd be better employed praying for the victims of his religion and the practioners.

Re: Brexit
 

Isn't that the other lot? Although, you do have a point :)

Re: Brexit
 

He would be better placed bending May's ear about the mess she is making of the whole thing. That might actually achieve something.

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Although Theresa May does not give the impression that she's the best of listeners, she's a daughter of a vicar so she might listen to a man of the cloth.

Re: Brexit
 

As Matthew Paris succinctly put in a article she listens to no one while completely ignoring any advice she is given..

Re: Brexit
 

I think what you're trying to say is she's a woman;)

Re: Brexit
 

Now stop putting words into my mouth Papa.;)

Re: Brexit
 

If she provides a legal constraint to the backstop, what bits about hers deal are you against?

---------- Post added at 21:12 ---------- Previous post was at 21:07 ----------

In reference to my earlier request, apart from the backstop and the £41 billion on offer, can anyone on this forum tell me what else is so terrible about the May Withdrawl agreement?

If she was to get legally binding assurances about the backstop, what else is in there that could make an MP vote against it, given the alternative?

Re: Brexit
 

As I understand it I think we're actually better of in the backstop, no new laws, access to single market, being part of the customs union ish, no membership fees and no free movement, what's not to like, no wonder the EU aren't keen oh and we keep the fish!

That is as said if I understand it right, I've made no real effort to look for information preferring instead to listen to Farage, Mugg, Bozo and the rest and think the exact opposite of what they said, it's easier that way

Re: Brexit
 

This is a withdrawal agreement, the real negotiation (fish, tariffs etc) comes with any trade agreement we agree with the EU.
We will still have to pay for access to the single market.

---------- Post added at 23:55 ---------- Previous post was at 23:51 ----------

Just seen a bit more of this article on Twitter. Rather worrying.
https://twitter.com/arusbridger?ref_...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Re: Brexit
 

Isn't it the divorce bill being paid during the transition period rather than fees and a fee only becomes applicable if the the transition period needs to be extended, that's my understanding after listening to the aforementioned burks anyway, so it's anyone's guess really

Re: Brexit
 

but subject to the ECJ and no Independent trade policy so

Very insightful.

Re: Brexit
 

Interesting piece from the Bruegel group on the costs of a no deal Brexit to the European Union and in particular Germany. This paper is an adaptation of work commissioned by the Bundestag (German parliament) and so would be instrumental in driving policy;

http://bruegel.org/wp-content/upload...-02-140119.pdf

This bit made me laugh;

Re: Brexit
 

Actually 80% of our economy would be completely independent as there services which aren't covered by single market access, perhaps you should start paying attention to them to, it's very insightful

Re: Brexit
 

But if the Brexit "driver" was seen as determined to drive down a particular route, then the other side(the EU) would know that they would have to give way. As it is the EU is repeatedly told that it is the UK that will give way, rather than be determined to implement the DEMOCRATIC vote of Brexit.


Lack of sensible proposals from the EU is purely down to the Remain side.

Re: Brexit
 

It would appear you are stating that it is better to die in a crash than change your mind...

Re: Brexit
 

If you set out clearly and have the reputation that you are not going to flinch, then the other guy will flinch first. It is the EU determined to force a crash or for the UK to flinch first.


Brexit under reasonable and acceptable terms or "hard" Brexit. If the EU was remotely convinced that "hard" Brexit was allowed to be an option for us, then they would be more forthcoming in negotiating an agreement. Consider driving in a F1 GP race and Lewis Hamilton comes alongside. You know full well he isn't going to yield, so you have to move over.



If Brexit is delayed by more than a few months, then it is inevitable that democracy will be subverted yet further, and Brexit will never happen.

Re: Brexit
 

Hard aka no-deal Brexit is allowed to be an option as far as the EU is concerned. It has already said that there would be no holiday visas for UK citizens in such circumstances. But a car of 500m horse power has more power than one of 64m horse power and the latter will invariably yield.

Re: Brexit
 

It is the UK "government" that is signalling "we'll accept any deal".


Basically it's saying the backstop remains until the EU says otherwise.

Re: Brexit
 

Or until a method of tracking trade across the border exists, without border controls.

Remember, if we have no border trade controls at the Irish/NI border, under WTO rules we have to treat all other countries the same way.

Re: Brexit
 

Labour announce backing for a second Brexit referendum

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-an...endum-11648217

Re: Brexit
 

Well done JC for achieving the impossible, I will NEVER vote labour again.

All my life I have voted labour, but never again.

All these traitors who are trying to block brexit, must have forgotten that leavers will vote them out.

I myself cannot vote for my MP he his blocking us leaving plus he is anti same sex relationship, so 2 reason to oust him.

Re: Brexit
 

he following the policy agreed at labour party conference which had vast majority support

Re: Brexit
 

Bit emotional mate. Disagreeing with you does not make them traitors.

Re: Brexit
 

No one is a traitor , saboteur or muntineer as that type of inflammatory language should not be aimed at anybody.

Re: Brexit
 

Whatever it is the EU are the ones that effectively have the final UNILATERAL say. The UK isn't that bothered, it is the EU that is kicking up all the fuss and insisting it is THEIR border.

Re: Brexit
 

Whichever way the parties decide to go, they risk alienating approx 50% of the electorate.

Re: Brexit
 

If the case for leaving is still overwhelming, no problem with another vote surely ? Or is there a danger the young might get shaken out of their apathy, and the Brexit lies might have swayed some?

If we still vote to leave don't think anyone could complain as we are more than informed now of the oncoming disaster.

Re: Brexit
 

Without the Remain side continually obstructing any plans and trying to overturn the democratic vote, we would have an acceptable deal with the EU and/or fully planned for a hard Brexit. Love to see examples of what the Remain side is meant to have to done that didn't obstruct the whole process?

Re: Brexit
 

Blame Remain for Brexit? It doesn't quite work old chap.

Re: Brexit
 

It is this seeming fear of a second referendum tickles me.

After all, didn't Farage proclaim, if Leave lost 48/52 it would be unfinished business. Yet the other way and people are supposed to put up and shut up. :erm:

Re: Brexit
 

There is a clear majority on the remain side that accepted the democratic vote from the referendum so they should not be bracketed in the same group as those who want to change the result of the referendum.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Another referendum will decide nothing.

Unless it is something like 70/30 for Remain ( and that depends on what the question is)

If there is no mandate to leave with a 52/48, then there is no mandate to stay if it is 52/48 the other way or something in that area.

The three points that remain think another referendum will deliver a win are:

1. Many of the old arse leavers are dead now
2. Those thickos that didn’t know what Leave meant are now educated and will reverse their vote
3. None that voted remain initially will change their vote.

This has to be offset against.

1. Not all new voters are remainers
2. Just how many have died in the last 2.5 years?
3. Those that voted remain first but would vote leave now (and i put myself in that camp)

Face those two off together and will that give them a decisive majority - i think not and the circus continues.

Has it not dawned on the Westminster bubble that one of the main reasons leave won was because the population did not believe their voice mattered, they felt ignoredand left behind.

And what is Westminsters answer to that? To tell them their voice doesn’t matter, ignore them and offer them nothing.

What was it Einstein said, madness is to do the same thing again and again and expect different results.................

Re: Brexit
 

You missed off the next paragraph from that statement and

Re: Brexit
 

Lol. Nail on the head! :D:D:D

---------- Post added at 20:46 ---------- Previous post was at 20:39 ----------

Oops. That does indeed change the entire thrust of the article being cited.

Re: Brexit
 

Yup. I think this is a massive problem. If Remain were to win the problem would be compounded even. I don't know how we solve this divide.

I think the new voters would end up edging for Remain. Not all new voters are Remainers but the majority are. It's only '3' and a rebellion against being asked again that would be in Leave's reasons to be optimistic. Either way it would be close again.

No one thinks about the long-term consequences of 'winning'. Winning a narrow Remain vote will cause unrest and deep resentment. The people celebrating a no deal Brexit, even gloating at young people's concerns, are also not thinking of what the country could look like a few years down the road.

Re: Brexit
 

There isn't the Parliamentary Arithmetic for a Second Referendum, there is about 26 Labour MPs who won't back it for a start and there is already a handful who have publicly declared tonight that they will vote against any amendment that calls for one.

And tonight at a Labour PLP meeting, Corbyn was asked 23 times, if Remaining in the EU, would be on the ballot paper, he refused to say it would.

As usual, it's just noise.

Re: Brexit
 

Stripped of its usual European support because of Brexit, how is Britain faring on the global stage? Well, today, the UN ruled that it must give up its rule of the Chagos Islands.
Looks like one country is taking back control. Mauritius.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-02-25/...-court-orders/

Re: Brexit
 

the sun front page tomorrow saying Teressa May going to rule out a no deal Brexit Tom Swarbrick just said on LBC

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit...brexit-u-turn/

Re: Brexit
 

Sorry .... whatthewhatnow? This issue has been ongoing for years, and that isn’t the first international panel to rule that the UK acted unlawfully in evicting the inhabitants. It was the cynical act of a colonial power in retreat and I suspect we would have rectified it ourselves years ago were it not for the inconvenient fact that we sub-let part of it to the Americans, who have built a massive strategic base on it.

Seriously, I’ve heard some pretty desperate attempts to blame everything on Brexit but this one really is a crowning turd.

Re: Brexit
 

I'm blaming them for it NOT happening.


So much time and effort has had to be put into deflecting the anti-democratic attacks, that could have much better been put into planning for a hard Brexit. If the EU saw that the UK was fully prepared in every way to have a hard Brexit, they might have been a bit more prepared to come to an acceptable agreement.

---------- Post added at 22:57 ---------- Previous post was at 22:53 ----------

I included this sentence.

The official WTO response versus an "expert". It is the EU insisting on the backstop.


As I've said before, if the Remain side are prepared to accept a 2nd referendum result that also went against them, they they should accept the result of the 1st. They don't accept the 1st, so they would only accept the result a 2nd if it went their way.

Re: Brexit
 

you forget this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3rX4nJ0snc

Re: Brexit
 

I think she can request a extension without Parliamentary approval so even if the ERG bring down their own government over it she can do it.

Re: Brexit
 

Come on, a second result would be based on known outcomes.

The first just asked Leave or Remain. No quantifiable definition of what type of Leave this would be. Despite protestations from some that "everyone knew what they were voting for", subsequent events have shown 17.4 million people were not all voting for the same sort of Leave.

Re: Brexit
 

What's the point of a 2nd referendum? The pound in your pocket is worth 15% less than it was pre 1st referendum, 800 billion has left the city of London, 10% of London's hotel room bookings have been lost, 250 companies have relocated to Europe, it's cost us 800 million a week since the referendum etc etc etc and for what to end up staying in, seems crazy to me and imo uneducated as it is we're probably over the worst of it anyway, if they're foolish enough to give me a 2nd vote it'll be leave next time

Re: Brexit
 

Ah, the old "Gove” approach...

Do you honestly believe that none of the WTO countries would object?

Re: Brexit
 

Clever move by Theresa May which really just accepts reality. The only way that no deal could have been an option would have been if the UK prepared for it thoroughly then invoked Article 50.

---------- Post added at 07:52 ---------- Previous post was at 07:47 ----------

Agreed. Still, it's a shrewd move for once by Jeremy Corbyn.

Re: Brexit
 

I've read some utter tosh in my time but that takes the biscuit. You're effectively saying that the negotiators/politicians etc. Couldn't concentrate on their jobs because people are 'making noise' this is akin to the excuse the child gives to a teacher for not doing their home work. this then leads to a couple of conclusions.

1) The politicians/negotiators aren't capable of doing their jobs and would not be able to secure a good deal full stop

2) The politicians/negotiators aren't competent because they didn't even to think that in such a close result there would be efforts to change the process.

D- Must try much harder

Re: Brexit
 

Just watched a programme from Channel 5, it said that cash point machine theft/fraud has trebled and 90% of it is being done by Romanians. They interviewed them and was told that it is either used for drugs or to send home to their poor families back home.

It was on the news the other day that many of them live outdoors too.

The ugly side of free movement in action. What on Earth did they expect when they allowed these poorer countries to join?

Re: Brexit
 

Ok great now lets get some more information on this, number of Romanian migrants who are involved in this type of crime against the total number of Romanian migrants in this country. Bet that data isn't provided is it?

It's a sensationalist headline designed to prompt exactly the reaction/post that you have just provided. and you, with great gusto fell for it hook, line and sinker. Without additional data it doesn't mean a great deal

Re: Brexit
 

I've personally seen them defecating outdoors in public areas.

The main point of my post is that this free movement crap is allowing these low life's into our country. Playing with data is meaningless if it's you that's been pickpocketed etc. Even one is one too many.

Re: Brexit
 

Thing is I voted for no deal regardless of the outcome as I suspected did many. My understanding at the time in 2016 was we leave then talk.

It's just a shame so many didn't seem to get that.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

So many don't seem to get that because it's a stupid thing to do. You don't leave a job and then decide to go look for another.

Re: Brexit
 

Nowhere near the same sort of situation.


Imagine a situation where a trade union threatened a strike. The Employer wouldn't take negotiations seriously unless they were prepared to go on strike, and if that failed, actually went on strike. Both sides suffer.

Re: Brexit
 

May making a statement right now on the BBC News channel & BBC2.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

It's exactly the same situation. You don't decide to do something and after doing it then decide what to do next.

Re: Brexit
 

So what? go into any major city on a Friday or Saturday night and you'll see people exhibiting exactly the same sort of behavior so once again your point is moot. The same 'freedom of movement crap' as you so eloquently phrase it is what allows British ex pats to live overseas and work British workers to work overseas.

Finally, if you're the one whose been pickpocketed then of course it's going to change your view point as it's a personal & emotional. But, as with most things it needs to be examined as a whole and subjectively.

You're just repeating and insinuating your same old tired bigoted nonsense as per usual

Re: Brexit
 

Looks like the tin may be kicked down the road. If Theresa May gets an extension, what happens when that expires and she has no new concessions from the EU? That's when it starts to get really interesting.

---------- Post added at 13:17 ---------- Previous post was at 13:15 ----------

I would be interested to read Nomad's response to this point.

Re: Brexit
 

This probably means article 50 will be delayed right? May's deal doesn't have a majority so unless the ERG decide to vote for it to avoid a delay, there isn't a majority for no deal and so delaying it will win?

Re: Brexit
 

That's the way i see it too, unless of course May has managed to achieve the changes/assurances required to get her deal through parliament (Highly unlikely, but there's a very slim degree of possibility) MP's then get stuck with either voting their conscience or voting their constituents requests.

Article 50 is extended, May quits and the issue is kicked down the road again for the next Tory leader to try and resolve.

Re: Brexit
 

Another bad analogy. If you strike, you still have a job to go back to after the strike.

A better version would be if you resigned from your job with no redundancy payments and the challenge of finding similarly rewarding employment at short notice.

---------- Post added at 14:16 ---------- Previous post was at 14:08 ----------

You need to challenge what you watch more.

https://fullfact.org/europe/over-her...-90-atm-crime/

Until there is some objective, verifiable evidence to support this, this is just hearsay and conjecture click-bait.

Re: Brexit
 

I seem to remember the official leave campaign leaflet saying they'd sort the deal out before w asked to leave, which makes more sense to me

I think Mrs May will get her deal through now...

Re: Brexit
 

Why though? The pressure is off now since the idea of crashing out with no deal can be postponed for three months. The only scenario I can see is that the ERG sense that this is the best they can get since something else might happen in those three months but they don't seem to be thinking like that at the moment....

Re: Brexit
 

Pound rises against the Dollar & the Euro as chances of remaining in the EU increase. Although I suspect it has more to do with No Deal being less likely.

Re: Brexit
 

I think there’s no doubt this is about threatening the ERG. They’re holding out for No Deal but as they do so they risk No Brexit. There’s little chance of a second referendum being called by Parliament this month, but in two or three months, if negotiations are still at an impasse? Who knows what might happen then?

I think we’re about to get a legally binding addendum to the withdrawal agreement (so that the agreement itself has not been re-opened, as per EU insistence) which will be put to Parliament as Meaningful Vote #2. And all hell will be let loose on the Tory back benches as No.10 tries to get it voted through.

Re: Brexit
 

I actually think it's worse when immigrants do it as opposed to our own, it's more of an affront.

Freedom of movement is wrong. No country should have to allow foreigners into their country and have no say in it, allsorts of lowlifes are coming in (especially in London).

As previously stated, those who go to live in Spain usually have to pay health costs, usually buy their own property, don't need employment, won't need maternity/education services etc etc. It's a totally different area, however, Spain would be within their right to ask them to leave. I bet they won't though.

If a country decides that they want to allow immigrants in (presumably they will control the quality & quantity of them), then that's a completely different thing altogether.

Those who voted to remain have this issue above all else to blame for the vote not going their way.

Trying to silence people by playing the bigot/racist card no longer works.

---------- Post added at 17:56 ---------- Previous post was at 17:49 ----------

An interesting and better thought out post than simply playing the bigot card- thank you.

Whether the figures are correct or not, ending free movement would hopefully allow us to rid ourselves of people who commit crime (serious or otherwise), we have enough of our own! It also impacts on police resources as they have to pay for translators as well as the extra time involved.

Re: Brexit
 

Disagreeing with, and pointing out errors in what someone says is not playing the bigot/racist card - saying that is a pre-emptive straw man argument.

You strongly object to people making unsubstantiated generalisations about disabled people, but seem happy to do so against immigrants - double standards in play.

Re: Brexit
 

I was specifically accused of making bigoted statements; not helpful.

I have never suggested that all immigrants commit crime, that would be preposterous.

Re: Brexit
 

Many immigrants going back to after the second world war have contributed greatly to this country in its time of need and yet are treated as third class citizens by parts of the government , establishment and by parts of the populace.

https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/0...sh-generation/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43782241

Re: Brexit
 

Absolutely, which is wrong. To be clear, these decent people aren't the ones that i'm referring to, but the Governments hands are tied due to the ridiculous freedom of movement rules for EU citizens.

Re: Brexit
 

I guess that there will be
- An Article 50 extension
- Then a second referendum. I don't agree with it and the choice of options will be controversial but I'm struggling to see how you end the deadlock whilst avoiding a nonsensical no-deal which would condemn the ruling party to a political abyss at the next election and many after.
At what stage will Theresa May step down is another intriguing question?

---------- Post added at 19:23 ---------- Previous post was at 19:19 ----------

We should all appreciate that there's wrong-uns in all nationalities and that freedom of movement does not prevent our dealing with criminal behaviour.

Re: Brexit
 

Please point out where I said that you had stated that "all immigrants commit crime"?

Not helpful...

Re: Brexit
 

Let's face it Hugh, Brexit isn't helpful. It's brought out the worst in everyone.

Meanwhile, the World warms to destruction and no one cares...

Re: Brexit
 

Is there a bandwagon you haven't jumped on ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Scientific reality is not a bandwagon.

Re: Brexit
 

sorry about the late reply to an earlier post, been at work ;)

I've done exactly that on a number of occasions.
Here I am, working, still living in my 3 bed detached house with 2 nice cars on the driveway.

There comes a time when it's better to walk away than dismally wait around hoping things will improve :D

Re: Brexit
 

Yes, but did you kidnap your neighbour, get him sacked and make him force to live with you in your nice 3 bed house? Maybe one of the cars are his (or her's) ? :)

---------- Post added at 08:05 ---------- Previous post was at 08:04 ----------

It is to some ..

Re: Brexit
 

The old "well, it worked for me" anecdote.

I’ve never done that, and yet, here I am, semi-retired, still living in my 4 bed detached house in a nice area, with 2 nice cars on the driveway, and have 3 holidays abroad a year - perhaps if you hadn’t done that, you’d be better off? ;)

I’ve been in a couple of serious car crashes, and survived with only minor injuries - however, I don’t drive around thinking "well, it doesn’t matter if I crash, I survived before...".

"It’s probably going to be OK" is not an optimal approach for a country’s economy...

Re: Brexit
 

Remainer THREATENS Brexit protester



'I want to throw you off this [swear word] bridge!'


The Brexit protestor had been holding signs over a bridge to drivers when he was threatened by a furious Remainer who claimed he was damaging the country more than Hitler. The Remainer then attempted to grab the Brexit protestor and his sign which resulted in a standoff with the pair hurling insults at one another. Off camera, the attacker can be heard saying: “I feel like throwing you off this [swear word] bridge.”



Oh dear me remains true colours showing through.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...-jeremy-corbyn

Re: Brexit
 

Regardless of your position on Brexit, people grabbing others is just unacceptable. Nor should it be used by either side to try to claim the moral high ground.

Re: Brexit
 

Theresa May is not going to step down, and doesn't have to. She's safe for at least a year, having survived a Conservative Party challenge.

The votes she has announced in the Commons is a clever move. It sets out starkly what the choices are and forces MPs to make a choice. There are no other choices and the EU will not negotiate a different deal.

Neither a second referendum nor a General Election will change anything regarding Brexit - unless the Conservatives are swept in with a big majority. Not impossible, I suppose, given the 11-point lead the Conservatives have in the latest YouGov poll, but then again, we've said that before. What is different this time though is that Corbyn's ratings have crashed, so I don't see him doing a superman act against all the odds this time.

Re: Brexit
 

Totally agree - problem is, there are examples of idiots on both sides threatening violence, and it’s equally abhorrent whoever does it.

Re: Brexit
 

Ah the old both sides are doing it argument.

Re: Brexit
 

Are you denying that there ain't idiots on both sides?

Re: Brexit
 

Oh no den there absolutely "ain't idiots on both sides"

Re: Brexit
 

Here's something interesting...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47379308


I particularly like the following

It repeated analysis suggesting a no-deal scenario could leave the UK economy 6.3% to 9% smaller after 15 years, compared to what it would have been

'It said the worst-hit areas economically in a no-deal scenario would be Wales (-8.1%), Scotland (-8.0%), Northern Ireland (-9.1%) and the north east (-10.5%).'

In the North East it would appear that Turkeys do indeed vote for Christmas.

Now, as adults, can anyone on the remain side provide any research from the opposite perspective?

Re: Brexit
 

Well, no one could ever accuse you of seeing both sides of the argument...;)

Re: Brexit
 

As all the analises and reports (quite rightly) put forward a "worst case" scenario to get the opposite perspective you would have to fund "best case" research.

Re: Brexit
 

Ok, which is where?

Re: Brexit
 

7.5% smaller than it would have been means - for example - instead of £100bn total growth in the size of the economy, we have £92.5bn growth.

Growth. Not shrinkage. Growth, just slightly less of it.

For comparison, because of the 2008 credit crunch, the UK economy is 16% smaller than predicted by the pre-crunch growth trend. Yet even here, using hard facts and not forecasts, the economy has grown since 2008 and despite endless shrieking headlines about austerity we aren’t on our uppers.

Clearly there is going to be an initial cost in loosening our ties with the EU single market. My contention has always been that the cost of being a part of the EU in terms of sovereignty and all that flows from that is simply too high. And in the longer run our freedom from the EU’s market and customs rules will allow us to forge our own relationships with the world markets that are really growing.

Re: Brexit
 

Some of us thankfully are not on our uppers, there's a significant increase in those that are however.

Re: Brexit
 

BREAKING: French President Macron says request for Brexit delay must be 'justified'

Speaking at a news conference with German chancellor Angela Merkel, French president Emmanuel Macron says a delay to Brexit would only be accepted by the EU if it was "justified".

"We would support an extension request only if it was justified by a new choice of the British," he says.

"But we would in no way accept an extension without a clear objective."