Re: Coronavirus
 

In 2020, it was only just the top killer in England at 69,000.
Even the Flu/Pneumonia came in at 6th, killing almost 19,000.

The population of England was about 56.5 million in mid 2020, making covid deaths about 0.12%.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/trans...ntia2016to2020

There are no final figures for 2021, but given the total covid deaths is about 172,000, that makes 103,000 in 2021.
That matches quite well with 2020, since the 69,000 were mostly from mid March 2020 onwards, i.e. about 9.5 months.

The majority of 2021 deaths were also in the first 3 months.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Suggest you go back and listen to your Tory chums when they spoke at the start of the pandemic regarding the lag to people dying

The only reason its losing credibility is because it doesn’t fit your narrative.

Comparing South Africas wave to ours is like comparing apples to oranges Due to demographics, of course you already knew that.

Let’s see where deaths are in 3-4 weeks, if they haven’t significantly increased I’ll apologise

Re: Coronavirus
 

Ooh, i’ll bookmark that baby!

Are deaths usually 7-8 weeks behind the infection curve? I don’t know, but it looks like we’ll find out by the end of Jan.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don’t apologise to me by any means if you turn out to be incorrect. I’m interested in ideas, information and how we interpret and act on it. If I’m incorrect, so be it, but being incorrect isn’t offensive.

Re: Coronavirus
 

There’s that word again.

Watch out in the absence of a definition they’ve got the easy win if deaths don’t rise in proportion with infections. As you could reasonably expect “if nothing changes”. A delta week to week comparison, or month to month comparison, before the booster campaign was fairly easy.

There’s two reasons this won’t happen - the collapse in vaccine efficacy against infection isn’t replicated effectiveness against hospitalisations. More people who wouldn’t have caught Delta in the first place will get Omicron but there’s still protection against hospitalisation and death by comparison to an unvaccinated population.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2119270

The second reason being the low hanging fruit of previous waves have already expired.

What the new cases/hospitalisations/deaths ratio lands at isn’t yet clear. School closures will have reduced the R number, plus delays in reporting data, lack of availability of testing, etc make this a rocky period for like for like comparisons to be made.

Re: Coronavirus
 

What we can say is, for the last full week we have figures for, that daily hospitalisations have increased by 30%…

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1640821072

Re: Coronavirus
 

Patients on venilation beds is pretty steady and has been for a while. In fact it's dropping slightly.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...6&d=1640823643

Re: Coronavirus
 

Think I heard the national medical director say the nhs is on a war footing earlier :shocked:

Re: Coronavirus
 

So the NHS is now weaponised....

Re: Coronavirus
 

:D

It’s all a conspiracy, OB. People are just admitting themselves to hospital because they are bored.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That statement says so much about your views - much more than you realise.

It’s basic risk management to put in place contingency for a potential increase in demand, not "weaponising the NHS*".

*did you get that phrase from the Telegraph or the Spectator?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Let's hope Boris and the 'right' will own the decision to ignore the scientific advice and let the country party on.

Or will he try to blame anyone else? The NHS are to blame for a start, obviously... :rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Though it's clearly an issue internally, I'm not totally convinced that NHS staffing levels due to sickness absence etc (or maybe just unable to fill vacancies) should ever be used to decide whether to lock the country down. Even though patients need to be treated it would be like closing the country down because Tesco couldn't get anyone to deliver stuff to their shops.



Even looking at the numbers of people going to hospital is a bit misleading now in terms of severity of illness, given that in relation to those having more lengthy stays (which is an issue) those having covid but going in for other things (which is an isolation issue, but not primarily them needing covid care) or needing minimal, short treatment seem to be much more commonplace. I think the stats are still showing those in critical care or on ventilators are not increasing or are actually going down which is more of an indicator of the severity in the hospitals than the numbers of those going into hospital with a positive test for covid.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Now know 3 people with COVID , none of whom thought they had it. All were sure it was flu , think it's a case that if you look hard enough you'll find it. In years gone by it was have not been recorded