Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

. . . and I think I'm right in saying that, according to the Brussels mob, it only takes one member to say 'non' and it kills the deal

Re: Brexit
 

EU's been pretty good at doing deals - it has the most of any economic bloc in the world. In fact, a free trade agreement with Japan (population 126.8m) comes into force tomorrow.

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Problem has always been the cart of leaving the EU being put before the horse of a united Ireland.

The International treaty that governs the GFA takes precedence over the more local UK withdrawal from the EU. So the deal negotiated has reflected the need to cover the GFA as a priority. Something the DUP have never really signed up to.

Clearest solution is to withdraw A50. Have an Irish unification referendum, then re-run the EU referendum on that basis.

Re: Brexit
 

Wouldn’t that be them interfering in our Government?

Anyway, on the Today programme this morning, the Foreign Secretary said that our commitment to the GFA and to not having a hard border is unconditional, and that any changes to the backstop will have to show that we will not be accessing the Single Market via the "back door" - if we can overcome those two issues, which he thinks we can, then we will be able to have substantive discussions, but this is not going to happen in the next few days.

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And if it doesn't work out ?

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Italy falls into recession as quarterly GDP drops
The country's economic growth has been dragged by a slowdown around the EU while Germany is expected to narrowly avoid recession.


https://news.sky.com/story/italy-ent...drops-11623135

Oh dear looks like the wheels are starting to fall off :shocked:


the country's economic growth has been dragged down by a generalised slowdown around the continent.

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Shuuuush don't tell them. That's what we are doing ... ;)

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Don't be silly, must be fake news . . I was only reading on here just the other day about some marvelous trade deals the EU had pulled off. ;)

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Bit silly if you have no money to spend ;)

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Nope that is an absolutely appalling solution - we have already had a referendum on leaving the EU. We do not need another, as I keep saying. It would be an affront to Democracy to keep re-running the same vote again and again because people's selected choice does not go their way. We also do not want to see the reunification of Northern Ireland with Ireland, we would see troubles similar to IRA, all over the place that were common in the 80's and 90's, I cannot believe you were seriously advocating such a disgraceful solution.

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It was not that long ago that the corrupted bullies in the EU were trying to enforce Italy to change it's 2019 Budget, yes the corrupted and cancerous Union dictating to it's member State what to do with it's own money and people here, want us to stay with these disgusting and corrupted power hungry fools in the EU. :rolleyes:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45954022

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AKA Let's put a gun in our mouths, pull the trigger and see what happens.

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Far fetched today I see - that said - I really don't want to see things like this said or any mention of guns. I find it very objectionable.

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OK. You go first and we'll see how it pans out. :D

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The Good Friday Agreement does have a possible future referendum at some point though but it shouldn't be as part of this process certainly. I believe if it ever becomes clear a majority would support reunification the government should call the referendum.

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BREAKING: Leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom has announced February planned recess of Parliament has been cancelled.

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Good

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Indeed - it is better than extending A50. :)

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Lol, serves them right ! :D

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Plenty of time to sort out Brexit/legislation now,it's about time they were made to work for their wage.

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One hopes that the bar has enough alcohol stock to cover the period, it would be awful for them if they couldn't have their drink while at work :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

I'd agree to that

Shame it's taken them two years......

Re: Brexit
 

Whether Italy is in recession or not is irrelevant really. The European project has seen recessions come and go.

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Have you ever thought some people don't want a second referendum because it didn't go their way but rather they changed their mind based on what's happening?

Re: Brexit
 

...or a cigarette in their private bar. Meanwhile, other smokers are required to stand outside in the cold.

Re: Brexit
 

Tell me you're not treating this like someone who buys a car, then a week later wants their money back because they 'changed their mind' :rolleyes:

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There is a problem there. It's been much longer than a week and brexit is much more important than a car.

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Wasn't it billed as a once in a life time vote?

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That was before the public voted the "wrong" way.

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No-one can legally, or morally, bind the future in this way regardless of however circumstances change.

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Not true - smoking is banned in the Houses of Parliament (there is a bar called "The Members Smoking Room", but the name is historic and no one can smoke in there).

https://publications.parliament.uk/p...07032046000005

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I have done exactly this. Chap was very obliging and understood why I wanted to return the car and gave me my money back.

Just like changing my mind over Brexit or which party to vote for in an Election. Perfectly reasonable reasons to change ones mind.

Re: Brexit
 

That's yet to happen. It might do if the ERG continue to push their luck and a general election is called though.

Re: Brexit
 

Germany BLOW as retail sales PLUMMET - Eurozone nervy after WEAK forecast


In the latest raft of economic woes to his Europe’s largest economy, retail sales were revealed to have fallen by 4.3 percent on the month in December. The gloomy figure, released by the state statistics office, marks the fastest rate of decline in 11 years. Sales also fell by 2.1 percent year-on-year, Germany's Federal Statistics Office said in a statement, marking the biggest slump since a 3 percent fall in September...

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/ci...urope-eurozone

Re: Brexit
 

I’m not 100% certain this is something to be pleased about regardless of whether we are inside or outside the EU. 44% of our exports go to the EU.

The whole capitalist house of cards is about to fall again. Chinese growth is falling, UK and US growth expected to follow.

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You (conveniently) forget the Amsterdam effect so considerably less of those exports ACTUALLY go into the EU but are transshipped world wide.

Re: Brexit
 

Interesting, so whilst they exempted themselves from the 2006 Health Act, they have decided to ban smoking voluntarily!

A Channel 5 poll found that 44% of people believe that Brexit will make people's lives worse, which, if truly representative, suggests that 4% of remainers believe that staying won't make our lives any better!!

Re: Brexit
 

I would be more interested in learning what you believe the figure to be than whether you think his data is convenient or not.

Re: Brexit
 

If you can provide more accurate figures I’d welcome those, but the principle applies in any case. No economies act in isolation from it’s neighbours and largest trading partners (to that end I include China, USA, etc).

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Quantitative easing. :)

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Re: Brexit
 

Regardless of your point of view that is what was said

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That’s right socialism is what we need to sort this out.

Re: Brexit
 

Socialist = Someone with nothing that wants to share it with the world ... ;)

Re: Brexit
 

It may have been what was said, but no Prime Minister and no Government can compel a future one to be bound by that. It was an irresponsible thing to say because it’s entirely outwith their control. It’s also convincing people that “once in a generation“ and “once in a lifetime” are statements that should apply to referenda.

If a a Government of any colour wins an election on a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum it’s within it’s right to do so regardless of whether the question was most recently asked. (I know that isn’t the case here).

I wouldn’t go that far, but uncontrolled and unregulated capitalism largely built on a debt mountain comes to a crashing halt from time to time. Here, in the rest of the EU, and all around the world.

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The kids can worry about that when we’re long in the ground. Brexit-logic.

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The problem with socialists is that sooner or later, they run out of other people’s money ;)

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and any capitalist entity that needed the government to bail out the pension fund upon collapse. Not to mention the banks that got bailed out.

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You can’t just print money willy nilly. Sooner or later the money markets start pricing in the oversupply of currency and its value falls. That screws mightily with the value of all those billions of Euros squirrelled away in German savings accounts.

Re: Brexit
 

My view is Italy is not Greece, the EU financial situation isn’t as precarious as many would like us to think and that quantitative easing can resolve problems as long as Italy operates within the fiscal framework the EU lays out.

Re: Brexit
 

Recessions happen. I feel the problem with the U.K is that unlike America we've never really recovered from the last one so the next one is going to be nasty...

Re: Brexit
 

The main problem the pension funds have is too high a cost ie defined benefit schemes, that were set in place by socialists. All exacerbated by the minimum wage, which means that a lot more money is taken out than was paid in to generate the income.



It wasn't the banks as such that were bailed out, it was the finance system. The risk was that nobody would invest in order for that money to be lent out on business loans and home mortgages. Where do you think the money comes from for those loans? It comes from people with surplus money.

Re: Brexit
 

If everyone is at it - which the EU, USA and UK are - the net change in the value of the currency against other major currencies is negligible.

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So they were squandering other people’s money without consequence. Got it.

Re: Brexit
 

Not sure that statement is valid - Defined Benefits in private companies in the UK, such as IBM, GE, Halifax, et al, were ended because people were living longer (and thus claiming pensions longer), not because they were set up by Socialists (IBM closed its Defined Benefits pension scheme in the early 90s to new entrants, and BT did the same in the mid-2000s - I worked for both of them).

Re: Brexit
 

:confused:The people who squandering it were the ones taking out the loans and not paying the money back.

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There was also responsibility on the behalf of those who gave loans out to people who couldn’t pay them back, and those who hid the bad loans in CDOs.

Re: Brexit
 

This is magnificent logic. Banks should make profits as private industry but shouldn’t be liable for their bad lending and investment decisions (the Government should cover that).

Reminds me of people saying they shouldn’t have to sell their homes to cover the costs of living in a care home. Capitalist in life and socialist in death.

I am enjoying the distraction from actual Brexit chat though.

Re: Brexit
 

A lot of the money put into the banks was paid back. Also we always seem to overlook the people who were more than willing to take out unsustainable loans and credit.

Re: Brexit
 

agreed, but there must be a real compelling reason to revisit it.

And “we don’t like the result” and “you didn’t know what you voted for” are not.

Re: Brexit
 

There doesn’t need to be a compelling reason. Just a belief by political parties that’s what people want more than what people don’t want (weighed by how strongly they feel against any other issue that might come up in a general election). Ideally it’d be demonstrated in one, but that’s not always possible.

If, for example, the Tories feel that the consequences of Brexit would cause a 1997 style wipeout, it’d be remiss of any Conservative leader to not consider acting in a way to avert that. Remember to reverse requires remain to actually win the referendum and if it does it legitimately becomes the will of the people.

Re: Brexit
 

Round and Round and Round and Round ..:

No reversing just pressing ahead .. one day you will get that into your head.

March the 29th id imagine. Just round the corner now :)

Have a wonderful night yea ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Taken one sentence completely out of context. Good to know you’ve not changed.

Re: Brexit
 

Same goes big nose :D

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But that's the thing Jf there ain't any correct context apart from the Referendum result.There is no argument to dispute that so the context of the statements you constantly make is wrong.There has been a decision and any debate 'context' needs to reflect that and not try and deflect from that decision but that's what you constantly do so i know i have the context 100% correct in my remark :)

Re: Brexit
 

Your sole purpose here seems to be to attempt to wind remainers up !
Your head will probably explode if the clock ticks past 29/3....and look I managed to say that without the help of any emojis.

Re: Brexit
 

To be fair i honestly just don't think you realise how obvious nearly all your comments are with the underlying theme you constantly go on about and that's over turning the 2016 Referendum result and having a re-run.I am not saying you come on here and post just to cause trouble,You don't and neither do i.I welcome people being free to say what they feel about any situation but you really can't get your head round the way the 2016 Referendum went but you are going to have to because that's reality facing us all from March 29th Onwards ..

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A bit of sarcasm never did anyone any harm but that's as far as it goes. I have better things to do than come on here and wind people up.If people want to get offended then they need to grow up and ditch the adult baby routine ..

This is real life .. ;)

Re: Brexit
 

If you bother to read the thread (I know, it’s asking a lot) that part of conversation goes back to “once in a lifetime”. You can reframe it out of ignorance if you like, but it neither invalidates nor negates my point to Pierre.

At least you’ve stopped your countdown that was an hour out all along. Might be out by more if Jeremy Hunt is correct.

Re: Brexit
 

Head explode lol ? Mate i'm as chilled as Penguins nuts ... The scottish vote to stay in the UK went my way and the vote to leave the EU went my way .. what the hell have i got to be stressed about lol :D:p:

---------- Post added at 23:11 ---------- Previous post was at 23:10 ----------


https://howmanydaystill.com/its/brexit-6 xx

---------- Post added at 23:14 ---------- Previous post was at 23:11 ----------

Anyway moving on i'm not getting into an argument.. Trifle time ..Blueberry and Blackberry tonight .. Lovin it Lovin it ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Looks like it's not just Jeremy Hunt who realises that an extension to Article 50 may be needed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...admit-article/

Re: Brexit
 

Those that gave out the loans didn't create the CDOs. All the CDOs did is play "pass the parcel" with the bad debts. It didn't create the debts in the first place. Then there were those who messed around gambling against the various CDOs.

Re: Brexit
 

I’d have no real issue with “honouring the referendum result” had it actually been done in a coherent and controlled manner on our terms.

In practice deep down leavers know that they won by a narrow margin, based on lies and that in all probability they’d lose a second referendum. That’s why it was the race to trigger A50 as quickly as possible, and why some favour leaving on 29th March at all costs despite our lack of preparedness.

Honouring the result simply means to leave. It doesn’t stipulate how and it doesn’t stipulate when. Our delusional politicians have spent two years arguing with the EU to little or no avail, so the “solution” is to leave on 29th March despite never really believing it’d come to that until about two months ago.

Re: Brexit
 

The whole thing in a neat nutshell.

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Exactly. I would also add that our politicians have got away with a lot of incompetence due to the strong economy.

Re: Brexit
 

That’s why I differentiated between the loan-givers, and those who hid the bad loans in CDOs - two cheeks of the same arse (one set initiated the problem, the other hid the extent of the problem).

Those who played "pass the parcel" were the ones who brought the Financial System down, as they made it impossible to understand how bad the problem was, so panic ensued.

Re: Brexit
 

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How would you better describe the margin of less than 4%?

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Nobody is disputing that in a democratic vote the margin to win is by one vote. A narrow win (0.02%) is just as valid a win on the day as a resounding win (80-20%).

I’d say where less than 1 in 25 people need to change their mind in a two option scenario that’s quite narrow. If you need 12 out of 25 people to change their mind for the opposite result then I’d say that’s pretty resounding.

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Today the EU-Japan trade deal comes into effect making it the biggest free trading block in the world: https://www.ft.com/content/a72d4672-...6-5db4543da632

Re: Brexit
 

Well that's good news, much trade can we get with Japan before the end of next month !

I declare this country officially mad......

Re: Brexit
 

If we have no deal from next month we're going to lose tariff-free trade with:

• Japan (3rd largest economy in the world)
• Germany (4th largest economy in the world)
• France (6th largest economy in the world)

And as for 'they need us more than we need them' two months before we leave they've got a trade deal with an economy larger than ours.

---------- Post added at 09:39 ---------- Previous post was at 09:27 ----------

Non-paywall link: https://news.sky.com/story/uk-might-...-days-11624240

Re: Brexit
 

Liam Fox is taking credit for this one - https://twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1083129001697296384

Well and truly called out in the replies!

Re: Brexit
 

How many trade deals has our wonderful Trade Secretary Dr Fox signed ? He needs to do 36 before Brexit day and he claimed it would be 'easy'.
One is the answer..... :rolleyes:

Maybe the good Dr should have stuck to medicine where his 'skills' are more needed ...

Re: Brexit
 

*tongue in cheek*

I wonder if this brilliant EU -Japan deal includes some kind of 'freedom of movement' aspect, in which case I fully expect to see thousands of Eastern European 'electronics engineers' rushing to Japan at the first opportunity ;)

Re: Brexit
 

No trade deals can be signed before Brexit day. Agreements can be in place and ready for signing though.

Re: Brexit
 

We can negotiate and sign agreements but they can't be implemented until either we have ended the transition period or leave with no deal. See paragraph 120 here - https://assets.publishing.service.go...1_.pdf#page=27

However, it looks like nothing has been signed yet but we are close with Switzerland, Israel and South Africa - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46949431

I would imagine a lot is on hold at present as a lot relies on the relationship we will have with the EU down the line

Re: Brexit
 

If we are into the realms of the imaginary I’d imagine there’s virtually no trade deals “imminent” as the Theresa May deal wouldn’t require them until the end of the transition period.

I think we are months away from even basic ones.

Re: Brexit
 

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If you zero tariffed wine purely under WTO rules you'd have to do it for everyone in the WTO who trades wine.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e..._e/fact2_e.htm
So to persuade a country to sign a specific trade agreement for wine, you would need to keep tariffs on wine, as the benefit of the agreement is to remove the tariffs.

Re: Brexit
 

Some talk in Brussels, obviously conjecture, that extending Article 50 by two years and sorting out the final deal in that time would solve the problems since it would mean no backstop.

---------- Post added at 12:48 ---------- Previous post was at 12:47 ----------

I think that might be what he is saying? That the only reason to do a trade deal is so you can have the lower tariffs to yourself whereas you're right WTO would mean it's all level. Not sure how much of an incentive that would be though.

Re: Brexit
 

Two years is a trap. The chances are the world will be in recession by then and the tide will sway against change.

Re: Brexit
 

You have a problem with context. If the people were asked what colour the passports should be then a small majority might be acceptable. If they were asked to redefine the economic and structural future of the country for a generation then such a majority is unacceptable and, arguably, immoral.

Re: Brexit
 

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Indeed. Also, those who granted the loans in the first place had a duty to lend responsibly.

Some MP's have started complaining that their 10 day February holiday has been cancelled to carry on trying to sort out Brexit. They also called for the taxpayer to refund any money lost for holidays booked. Now we know where their priorities lie:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-holidays.html

Re: Brexit
 

This cartoon-like Capitalist "Good", Socialist "Bad" banter is just a smokescreen to cover up the cracks in where are today in the UK (and elsewhere). So many people have grown up conditioned to believe that other people are other people's responsibility, not theirs.

They are also content (right word?) to watch themselves being manipulated by those to seek to exploit them and to say nothing.

Brexit brilliantly illustrates this. The Hard Brexit players are gleefully waiting for March 29. If they get hands on the reigns of power, here is the future that awaits us, courtesy of Dominic Raab.

In 2011, Raab said in a policy paper for the right-wing think-tank the Centre for Policy Studies that holiday pay, the minimum wage, maternity leave and pension contributions for British workers are all ‘strait jackets’ for British businesses and should all be scrapped in certain scenarios:

https://tompride.files.wordpress.com...raitjacket.pdf

Not surprised these people want to leave the EU, where all of the above would be illegal.

---------- Post added at 14:14 ---------- Previous post was at 14:07 ----------

In Parliament, agreed but we assume that the said vote is made on a bill that has been planned, defined and debated.

The same for the Referendum is a false equivalence. There was no plan, no details, no written process, the opposite in fact.

There is no "struggle" here for a valid argument. I already have one and have (tried to) articulate why it is so. You just don't agree. :) History is littered with nations making, in hindsight, bad decisions via plebiscite. This just adds another to the list ..

Re: Brexit