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Literally nobody buys anything other than exclusive rights to content - live, on demand, streaming, etc. It'd leave a huge gaping hole in business plans all around the industry if a streamer didn't pick up all forms of TV rights to ensure nobody else (ITV for example) started beaming your non-exclusive content into 26 million homes. So it's a total red herring to claim there's any additional rights cost at all. Which brings us to the genuine additional cost and effort. Which is demonstrably virtually nothing given the channels all over the EPG running on shoestring budgets with virtually zero viewers. Why continue? If you are ITV, Channel 4 or Five you get prominence on Freeview. If you are Sky you get prominence in 9 million homes on your own platform. None of these companies are going to walk away from that lightly to become apps on a Samsung TV leaving prominence (and software updates) up to the manufacturer. Of course they will have a streaming presence, but why rely on that alone and give up your golden goose that is the fact people switch on their sets and find you right there at the top of the EPG. If you don't think that this prominence has any significance at all can you explain to me why an Andy Murray match at Wimbledon will rate higher on BBC1 than BBC2? Why would the FA Cup rate higher on the BBC than ITV? You are simply applying your own views to the entire population - and as I've said before anything other than state intervention makes it extremely difficult to get 100% of a population to do anything. |
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Nobody else here is ruling anything out - they are, however, making a better fist of weighing probable outcomes than you appear to be. I tend to agree with those who believe that ultimately Netflix’s debt pile will be too great to sustain. Its market cap at the moment is around $140 billion which is ludicrous, and more than a little reminiscent of the dotcom bubble, with its tendency to value companies on their future earnings potential rather than their track record. Its debt, at $12 billion, may be only a fraction of its market cap at the moment but if there’s a sudden correction in the share price that could change quickly. There is undoubtedly value in the business but that just makes it a takeover target once it is valued appropriately. Don’t imagine for a second that a larger, well established media company wouldn’t snap it up should the price be right. I think the chances of the Netflix brand surviving to 2035 are very slim. Its content, and its subscriber base - which at the end of the day is all that stands behind the logo - will in time be merged into something bigger. |
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However, once the majority of people get more used to VOD, and assuming that programmes remain on there for longer (particularly the 'catch-up' programmes) their method of selecting programmes to watch will become different. By the way, I have never said that the population will just voluntarily stop watching scheduled channels to achieve your 100% figure. I have said they will reduce to the extent that these channels will no longer be viable. The transmitter switch-off is the most likely time that this change will be made. There really is no point in just shifting existing broadcasting methods to IPTV when programmes can be accessed in a more modern and convenient way. ---------- Post added at 09:53 ---------- Previous post was at 09:48 ---------- Quote:
You say I am inflexible in my views when I am simply challenging the fixed beliefs that keep coming through on these threads that nothing will ever change. I am only pointing out the logical outcome to existing trends. |
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If we are really going to boil this down to maintaining the transmitter network (something that’s relatively cheap aggregated across all the channels who use it) then you are really clutching at straws. You aren’t considering the cost to ISPs of shoving all this data through their networks or the cost in troubleshooting service issues for the end user. Is it their hardware (TV, iPad, router, the ISP), a wider issues with the streaming provider). That’s all fine if you’re dealing with someone who wants the technology - it’s a whole different ball game if you are dealing with someone who doesn’t want it, doesn’t need it and who is fundamentally going to ask if they are getting a better experience than before. Not a single country in the world at present has any plans to switch off terrestrial broadcasting. Quote:
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Your application of existing trends is not logical - simple use of the word doesn’t legitimise your analysis. Consumer behaviour doesn’t work in the way you believe it does and actually once the low hanging fruit have moved over it can be far more resistant to change than you believe it to be. |
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OB both Comcast and Disney already have many ways to monetise its content such as theme parks , retail stores , hotels , cruise lines etc.
Netflix has none of the above it's a one trick pony. |
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Clearly, no argument in the world will stop you from arguing that black is white. So, whatever. |
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https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2018...d-switzerland/ The reality is neither country really used DTT at all. Indeed, SRG are recommending people switch to Eutelsat's satellite broadcasts. So it isn't the end of traditional television as we know it, not by a long shot. There's no plan in place for the UK to cease DTT transmissions by any such date. Considering it took 14 years to move from analogue to digital, announced years in advance of launch in 1998, I think you are somewhat aspirational. |
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Hello.
You may not believe this but I've discovered the secret of time travel and jumped forward from the year 2013 to see what the 2020s are like....I'm a little early but... Is this thread still going on...??? |
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The BBC like any reasonable organisation are making future planning, which obviously streaming is a part of. However as always Old Boy, the source information plus your own flawed analysis gives you the answer you were looking for - unsurprisingly. |
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He is currently involved (a small part if his job) in replacing 128Kb ISDN links (used for the Outside Broadcasting voice links) from football stadiums with 5G links - the ISDN links have been in place since the early 80s. The BBC sweats its assets, and doesn’t replace stuff because something "shiny" comes on stream. The BBC put an options paper together, one of those options was no DTT, but that was in the "very unlikely" category... |
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Ah, ISDN ... I remember using bonded ISDN lines for videoconferencing maybe 10 years ago, when internet speeds even in fairly large city office buildings just weren’t reliable enough. I’m not surprised the BBC has stuck with them until now - the quality is perfectly adequate for radio and the reliability is rock solid. It just works, much as DTT just works, much as scheduled broadcast TV just works. Things that just work don’t get chucked out just because something new appears.
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Happy New Year folks. And in two minutes time to anyone who was streaming.
Here's to the next fifteen. |
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Happy new year anyway, whenever it happened. :tu: |
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Happy new year all here's to a fantastic 2020 for everyone. |
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On another note, just seen that the top six grossing movies in the US are all from Disney.
This should help ensure Disney + is a success. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2...alendarGrosses |
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Something Netflix can only dream about.... |
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Interesting viewpoint on yhe future of DTT from The House of Lords Select Committee on Communications and Digital - 1st Report of Session 2019 - published 5th November 2019.
https://publications.parliament.uk/p...muni/16/16.pdf Pages 64-65 Quote:
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Gosh, how strange to find a website observing that streaming service menus are not, in fact, the cornucopia of utopia, and actually tend to overwhelm consumers. I wonder what sets Forbes.com apart from all the digital marketing blogs we’re accustomed to seeing linked in this thread.
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They’re not trying to sell something?
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Who knows what the most streamed show was? As yet the streamers don't publish viewing figures.
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As I've said countless times before there's nothing special about streaming as a technology that exempts it from the same principles as any other manufacturer/service provider/retailer. More competition = bad news for incumbents. It can drive up supply side costs and down revenues (therefore profits). Lots of debt relative to competitors = bad news. They can sell an equivalent product to you at lower cost as they don't have to service the debt. Few assets = bad news. Creditors potentially less likely to tolerate ongoing debt. ---------- Post added at 19:39 ---------- Previous post was at 19:35 ---------- Quote:
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but look at the date i replied to Dens post - it was tounge in cheek haha. |
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Twitter suggests our North American cousins are upset over Friends being taken off Netflix. I wonder if there was any on screen indication that there was a “last chance” window? Someone seems upset to be on Season 6 and now can’t watch it.
Not ideal customer service if, as we know, this is just the beginning. |
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Couple of interesting articles on Netflix. I'm loathed to use the first one because it uses an online survey for one set of data. However the Bank of America commissioned data is interesting - while Netflix appears to hold up reasonably well, with a diminishing library of known quality content and further streamers ready to enter the market it'd be worrying if the situation repeated itself every time in light of new competition.
https://www.investors.com/news/disne...s-dump-rivals/ And this one:- https://seekingalpha.com/article/431...ng-real-threat This article raises the interesting idea that Netflix is already at, or near, it's peak. As I've said before - the pay-tv market (which streaming belongs to) has a reasonably fixed size. The collective pie only gets bigger for everyone if they introduce 'new' customers - where are they coming from? Netflix, Amazon and Now TV have undoubtedly introduced new customers at lower price points. However once you aggregate three or four streamers you are into Sky/Virgin/BT pricing territory - essentially trying to sell to those who have rejected pay-tv options already. |
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Netflix faces crunch year as Disney, Apple and more vie for streaming crown.
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The new Dracula series on BBC is in UHD/HLG on iPlayer.
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It's great that Disney+ is fairly cheap and also has full 4K UHD content. Where as to get the same content on Netflix is around 12.99 a month.
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Netflix faces crunch year as Disney, Apple and more vie for streaming crown
https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...treaming-crown |
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Truly exciting times!
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Can't see Disney + viing with Apple. Apple doesn't yet have the content to compete. As regards Netflix I said a while ago I expected it to go the way of Blockbuster when the big streamer companies came online.
I'd give Netflix 2 years (baring a miracle). |
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Netflix will have to rethink their packages and pricing to remain value for money with all the competition coming.
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Apple signs exclusive deal with former HBO boss to make movies, TV and documentaries
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/appl...d-plepler.html |
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Jeez, there's an awful lot of Netflix bashing on here.
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No glee from me either. It's a challenging marketplace, unfortunately as these huge companies compete for market share there's going to be failures along the way. That may not be Netflix - as I think Chris pointed out it's more likely to find it's true value and be snapped up by someone else to buy the customer base.
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I can stay subscribed and not be happy with the pricing. When I started it was only 5.99 a month. It's not up to 8.99 which is getting silly. |
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I’m in this category - back in the day I had NTL mostly for the broadband but also because our house never had a terrestrial aerial and it was in the days when it was the easiest way to get access to all the BBC’s digital output; I then had sky because we moved to an area with very poor terrestrial signal and subscribing to a sky dish was the only effective way of getting any tv at all (pre-Freesat). We cancelled our tv subscriptions years ago and these days have Prime Video (though initially that was for Prime parcel delivery benefits rather than tv) and Netflix, because for a household with kids of various ages there is a far higher concentration of watchable programming on that platform. We get far more with two streaming subscriptions than we ever did out of either a Sky or NTL subscription, and at a far lower price. |
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Excellent point well made. ---------- Post added at 23:43 ---------- Previous post was at 23:11 ---------- Off the subject, slightly, my Now TV sub was due to finish on 14th January this year, I was paying £3.49 per month for the entertainment pass which gives you all the good stuff on Atlantic, I got notification that from 14th January it would then be £8.99, so I decided to go down the cancel route, but, they gave me an offer I couldn't refuse, which is £1.69 per month for the next three months, not bad eh...:) |
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It's a really good deal, Den...:) |
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Taken from dspy.
Content budgets in 2020: Netflix $18.5 billion Amazon $8.5 billion Apple TV+ $6 billion Hulu $4.5 billion Disney+ $2.5 billion HBO Max $2 billion Peacock $1.5 billion Quibi $1 billion CBS All Access $1 billion |
Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
So Disney is leaning very heavily on its back catalogue, Apple is leaning on its brand, Amazon is leaning on its broader Prime member benefits and Netflix is the only one making very serious efforts to build up a library of new, exclusive material. At quite a cost, though.
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Netflix might seem all powerful but the demise of Blockbuster in this sector is a clear reminder on how quickly that the market can change. Personally and its only my opinion Amazon and Disney are best place going forward and possibly Netflix in the end being bought by Apple which would give them a significant foothold into this market. https://seekingalpha.com/article/431...sink-this-ship https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/04/jp-m...y-netflix.html |
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I'm presuming that is just spending on original content for that particular streaming service as both Disney and Comcast spend huge amounts a year on content certainly a lot more than in that list.
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Been impressed with the picture quality of Apple TV+ even if it needs a stable of stronger shows.
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Saw some good news today too Apple tv+ is launching on 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 LG tvs too very soon. |
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Comcast to give details today on its Peacock streaming service and an International News Channel.
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I'll get my coat. |
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/16/nbc-...and-shows.html |
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Another subscription service to come with NBC... History is repeating itself. Its like 2002 almost again then piracy went through the roof as people couldnt be bothered with expensive tv services to get "all the shows they wanted". Netflix arrived and people could pay reasonable amounts to watch more shows.
Now amazon, apple, netflix, NBC, disney all want a piece of the pie....yet they dont understand why thats going to lead to more piracy again because people cant afford everything. Very daft companies managed by people who probably make more in an hour than i do in a year. i could have warned them! greed will probably lead to them earning less in the long run.... |
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Netflix, Sky Strike Multi-Year U.K. Integration Deal
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...n-deal-1271005 |
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From today's Sunday Times (behind paywall).
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I wasn't on about price, Den, I was thinking more along the lines of the piracy quote from Vince. |
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Disney Plus UK to launch early with new March 24 release date
https://www.techradar.com/news/disne...4-release-date ---------- Post added at 12:12 ---------- Previous post was at 11:03 ---------- So US customers now have Disney + available cheap as well as Apple + with Peacock coming with a free tier. Kind of makes Netflix look expensive especially when you consider both Disney + and Apple + include UHD HDR. |
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