Re: Brexit
 

So let me get this right, we're going to have people coming over to this country who haven't paid tax/ni for anywhere from a short-long period of time and then using the NHS for free treatment.

What does this to a degree remind me of.... :smokin:

Re: Brexit
 

Those UK Citizens who currently get free healthcare in EU would qualify for it here too if they returned.

Re: Brexit
 

They should join the respective schemes of their countries they're in anyway really.

Re: Brexit
 

Yet earlier in the thread you implied that my post about this was disingenuous (with regards to British pensioners who had retired to Spain). It really does appear to be the case that you enjoy arguing an opposing view just for the sake of it.

Re: Brexit
 

NHS guidance.

Re: Brexit
 

Dry January. Sorry, misread your post as coming from someone else.

Re: Brexit
 

Continuously ....

Re: Brexit
 

I was only joking - it’s a line used about the false belief there’s an amount of health tourism to the UK by EU nationals.

---------- Post added at 14:23 ---------- Previous post was at 14:12 ----------

If it wasn’t obvious I was being sarcastic.

Re: Brexit
 

1) Seeing as it is FACT that there's a large amount of non-EU health tourism, doesn't seem unreasonable to suppose there might be some that is EU based.
2) The NHS isn't that bothered about recovering costs from the EU or anywhere else for that matter.
3) The newer rules for ex-pats appear to have only come in a little over a year ago(Oct 2017).


EU report on Health tourism
The proportions of EU residents travelling to another EU country for treatment.

Re: Brexit
 

I believe that's because you can't now get the S1 cover that those already in retired in the EU have, and is referred to in the Guardian article:

Re: Brexit
 

I think the point is that some of those who cannot afford to pay for local healthcare abroad would return, the UK would then become their residence and so the NHS would then be available for their needs.

Re: Brexit
 

And I know quite a few retirees (ex-colleagues of my wife) who live in Spain, but come back to the UK every 6-12 months for dentists and doctors (they give their children’s address as their U.K. residential address, and don’t mention that they live in Spain).

Re: Brexit
 

And yet look at the Swiss border, especially at the weekend when they close it to lorries to go home, this is the country held up as how easy it'll be for us post brexit when the none of the people saying it and taking a salary have even bothered to speak to a lorry driver that drives there and yes I suspect Roumanias arrangements requirements werent comparable with ours, I'd imagine they were a lot less complicated and easy to service but then I can't be sure because I wasn't smart enough to actuly ask a Romanian what it was like either

Re: Brexit
 

The problem is that Brexiters on TV assume the same border arrangements exist for lorries as they do for everyone else I think. I saw one of them cite the Swiss border would be easy but they were talking about driving though it as a visitor, goods have a special line IIRC. I dunno, no expert on Swiss customs checks :D

---------- Post added at 17:04 ---------- Previous post was at 17:03 ----------

Another tan Mr Jones?

Sí, Sí

Their dermatologist must be getting their suspicions though.

Re: Brexit
 

BREAKING: Bad news for Cooper/Boles Amendment that calls on Government to extend Article 50. Around 30 Labour MPs will either abstain or vote against it, some on the frontbench. A source close to Sun Political Editor, Tom Newton-Dunn tells him this evening.

Re: Brexit
 

Nonsense, you even provided links from the net to try and rubbish what I was saying. I said that (unless exempt) pensioners have to pay into the Spanish system for healthcare. You replied that I was being disingenuous because most would be exempt because they were in receipt of a British retirement pension.

...but that pertains to the existing agreements before Brexit.

Re: Brexit
 

I was being sarcastic in my post today.

My posts challenging your points remain valid. You were talking rubbish.

Re: Brexit
 

BREAKING: MPs vote against Jeremy Corbyn’s Amendment A: Yay’s: 296 Noes: 327.

Re: Brexit
 

That was pretty inevitable.

Re: Brexit
 

FFS, Enough !!!

---------- Post added at 19:23 ---------- Previous post was at 19:22 ----------

Looks like all Labour MPs are Abstaining SNP Amendment O.

Re: Brexit
 

This from Tom Newton Dunn
(@tnewtondunn)

Re: Brexit
 

BREAKING: Grieve Amendment Defeated.

Ayes: 301 Noes: 321

Re: Brexit
 

This is from BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham.
(@alexwickham)

Re: Brexit
 

Yvette Cooper's amendment defeated

Ayes: 298 Noes: 321

Reeves amendment defeated

Ayes: 290 Noes: 322

Spelman/Dromey amendment passed

Ayes: 318 Noes 310

---------- Post added at 20:33 ---------- Previous post was at 19:55 ----------

He was right.

Brady amendment passed

Ayes: 317 Noes: 301

Re: Brexit
 

Can kicked for two more weeks then.

Re: Brexit
 

Oh what a shitshow this is...

Re: Brexit
 

[QUOTE=pip08456;35981188[B]]Yvette Cooper's amendment defeated
[/B]
Ayes: 298 Noes: 321

Reeves amendment defeated

Ayes: 290 Noes: 322

Spelman/Dromey amendment passed

Ayes: 318 Noes 310[COLOR="Silver"]

Re: Brexit
 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1548796208

Re: Brexit
 

No real surprise. So our Parliamentarians keep wasting time and come back to vote on the May deal for the third time in just over two weeks. Ironically.

Re: Brexit
 

Ball is in EU court really.

Spelman amendment will be ignored by the government.

The only way the Withdrawl agreement gets through is without the backstop. The EU have to come back to the table to avoid ‘no deal’

Default position if the Withdrawl Agreement is not amended is still “no deal”

Extending A50 will not change anything.

Re: Brexit
 

Sky News@SkyNews


"We are prepared to meet her to put forward the point of view from the Labour party of what kind of agreement we want with the EU" - Jeremy Corbyn replies to Theresa May's statement after MPs voting on #Brexit amendments.

---------- Post added at 22:18 ---------- Previous post was at 22:14 ----------

the biggest issue still is and always been the Ireland border issue

Re: Brexit
 

The EU aren’t going to do anything. We remain deluded in the belief we are actually in a negotiation, that threatening to withhold the £39bn means anything other than inviting retaliation from the largest trading bloc on the planet and that the German car industry is propped up by Brits who enjoy driving pricey status symbols but when slapped with a tariff find them too expensive.

Re: Brexit
 

No deal then.

Re: Brexit
 

Which we are ill prepared for. (Circular argument not required - I know many will disagree).

We should have spent two and a half years preparing for no deal. At this rate we don’t be even have two and a half months.

Re: Brexit
 

It does seem like no deal. Tbh I didn't think May would go back and ask to reopen the withdrawal agreement she agreed. I can see the EU allowing some fudge but in the end I don't see them conceding the Irish border question, it doesn't seem there is actually time for it.

The pundit reaction seems to be that this is a stalling tactic to allow another two weeks.

Re: Brexit
 

"Alternative arrangements"?

Is that like a "cunning plan"?

I’m not being flippant, but it would seem our revised approach to Brussels is "something something not sure what this will be something something" - if that gets agreed, I will be impressed (and I hope it does get agreed, to avoid a Hard Brexit).

When I ran Major Programmes, if something wasn’t going to be delivered, and I offered alternatives to the Programme Board, they would want to know what the specific ‘alternatives’ were, and wouldn’t accept generalities - can’t really see the EU being any different.

Re: Brexit
 

The ball is now firmly in EU hands, their move.

It’s all well and good, them playing a tough hand, “We won’t budge.”

But as it stands. Germany is on brink of recession. Ireland’s economy could crash also if No deal becomes the only way forward. The EU cannot afford to take such a financial hit.

They’ve offered really only to extend A50 or revoke it, that was overwhelmingly rejected last night in parliament, a second referendum will now not be entertained, the Cooper Amendment and Grieve Amendment could have paved a way for this, but that got killed last night.

No, the EU wants us to keep voting. Well, we’re not singing to their tune and the cracks are appearing all over the place.

Re: Brexit
 

Parliament made it clear that No Deal was off the table at least as far as the motion allowed. Interestingly, the two successful motions sort of cancel each other out.

May is going to the EU to threaten No Deal if they do not cave in and at the same time, the EU can see, behind May's back, a placard which says "She's Buffling!"

Nice .. :)

Re: Brexit
 

They've already whacked the ball back into our court.. (i.e no renegotiation)

Where is Andy Murray when you need him? ;)

Re: Brexit
 

None binding and meaningless,May can just ignore it if she wants , no deal is still the default position.

Re: Brexit
 

Much like all the other things voted on yesterday, meaningless. Apparently we have to wait another 2 weeks for another 'meaningful' vote -which will doubtless be ignored if it gives the wrong answer !

I know this maybe controversial, but I'm beginning to think politicians are a total waste of time and money...

Re: Brexit
 

Remember that the EU has been thinking no deal is more likely for a while now. It's going to be bad for them but I think it might be priced into their decision making at this point. If our only plan is 'we really will do no deal you know?' then I don't think it's going to work.

I think the ERG et all know this which is why they're so keen on the tactic. It's no deal.

At this point I am thinking we might as well. Let them have the pure Brexit they wanted and own it if there are consequences. If it does turn out fine then they were right and it worked, if it does go wrong then they can't pretend 'it wasn't Brexit though' and it's on them.

Re: Brexit
 

I can pretty much guarantee they've been taking lessons from the Donald Trump school of ownership. Own the wins, blame everyone else for the failures.

Re: Brexit
 

:tu:

Re: Brexit
 

Politicans always do but if the public buys it is the question and it will be hard for Johnson, Mogg and Baker to say it wasn't the Brexit they wanted and try to start a stab in the back myth.

Re: Brexit
 

Oh they will. They have become quite adept at the act of speaking in forked tongue.

Re: Brexit
 

They will but few will buy it IMO. What could they say?

Re: Brexit
 

There is that strange disconnect where people from the ERG and their ilk say there nothing to fear from a no deal situation while at the same time say that the EU will budge as they don't want a no deal as it will be bad for them.

Let's not forget the relative exposure of the two parties which I have posted before;

UK exports to EU in 2017 - £274b or 44% of all exports or 14% of GDP
UK imports from EU in 2017 - £341b or 8% of all exports or 2.6% of GDP

(GDP figures from Trading Economics site, exchange rates from Google Finance)

Re: Brexit
 

As a starter - that even if we leave with No Deal, all the impacts from that are because the EU are blocking us by still not making exceptions for the UK.

Re: Brexit
 

It shows that they don't share your view of how brexit should proceed, maybe it's your version that is just out of touch.

Re: Brexit
 

Actually the Cooper amendment wasn’t meaningless; it would have led to primary legislation that at the very least would have delayed Brexit and would have made a No Deal outcome far less likely. It is instructive that Parliament is willing to pass non-binding amendments that lean on the government to do certain things (or refrain from doing things), but it is not prepared to take over the executive functions of government by taking over the parliamentary legislative programme and using it to direct the government to act or not to act.

Last night’s events were not meaningless. Parliament has left the government in charge of the process.

Re: Brexit
 

What failures? - Trump's policies on the Economy have worked though, Tax cuts and revoking of the job killing regulations that Obama put in, so he does own it, it's booming over there. US economy growing at annual rate of 4.1%. Something President Obama said would never happen under a Trump Presidency. The US economy roared ahead in the second quarter of 2018, growing at an annual rate of 4.1%, its fastest pace in four years.

Re: Brexit
 

The recent example is where Trump originally said he'd be happy to own the shutdown and not blame the Democrats. As soon as it happened by his own decision he blamed the Democrats for it.

Previously whenever the stock market went up, it was purely his doing. When it went down it was the Federal Reserve or others that were causing it.

Re: Brexit
 

Totally lol.. Out of touch by a Zillion miles ;)

Re: Brexit
 

And he was probably right when he said others were causing it - The Shutdown was down to the Democrats and their pathetic political games.

Anyway, we are not going to agree on this issue and in any case, we shouldn't be over discussing Trump and his financial policies in the Brexit thread. :)

Re: Brexit
 

Travelling regularly to the US for work. The vast majority of people who I speak too both whom i work with and regular people i talk to when out and about (West Coast, SF & Central, MSP) are fearful of an impending recession.

Also, the attached data quite clearly shows the current gap in market performance between Trump & Obama

Tax cuts have had little to no benefit to the ordinary citizen, and lets not get started on his ridiculous shutdown which cost the US economy several $Bn dollars

Trump should not be used an example, he owns nothing, apart from his delusional stupidity.


edit: just noticed off topic, no further post on this here

Re: Brexit
 

I'd honestly like to know what makes you think that we will absorb any financial hit better than the EU will?

Re: Brexit
 

An interesting piece here on the EU’s habit of insisting something can’t be done and won’t be done, right before it goes ahead and does it anyway:

https://order-order.com/2019/01/30/e...des-flip-flop/

Re: Brexit
 

Here's hoping...

More thoughts..

I think the challenge might be that in the example quoted, that was the EU helping/supporting a Member State - in this instance, we are trying not to be a Member State.

Why should the EU helps a country that is trying to leave to the detriment of a Member State (Ireland)?

Re: Brexit
 

Because UK leaving without a deal will be even more to the detriment of Ireland.

Re: Brexit
 

Easy answer
..... Euros :)


Behind the scenes the chaps with the bean counters will know exactly what the financial impact will be .. Watch this space .. Watch them concede ... ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Ding ding - Bingo. ;)

Ireland will still be a EU Member State - it is in EU's interest and Ireland's not take this pathetic "we must punish UK" for leaving us attitude.

This is also in response to mrmisoffelees.

Re: Brexit
 

Valid point, however, surely the primary interest of the EU is to protect the sanctity of the EU?

If they were to weaken it potentially leads to issues inside the bloc

They are going to protect their own, and if that means punishing the UK then that's the route I suspect they will take.

Re: Brexit
 

What is the non-backstop, non-customs union answer to the boarder though?

That's why I think the EU is so keen on it because it's not clear how our 'future trading relationship' would solve this problem unless that relationship is a customs union?

Re: Brexit
 

How does finding another solution than the backstop endanger the sanctity of the EU?

The EU said to May/UK, stop arguing, the deal is on the table, come back to us with a consensus that will get the deal over the line.

That is precisely what we have done, we have gone back and said, we'll take the deal, we'll even pay you the £40+ Billion (with no strings)

but we can't agree to the backstop, change the backstop and you have a deal

Now, to anyone with half a brain that is position to work from, if the EU continue to say "non" over this one issue they will inevitably come under immense pressure from their own members and those members governments will be under pressure from their business/industry bodies to sort something out.

It's 1no. item

I believe in common sense, and it wold be common sense to sort this 1no issue out to ensure the deal goes through.

Once the deal goes through, May will step down in September, and a new PM can sort out the future trading relationship.

---------- Post added at 14:08 ---------- Previous post was at 14:07 ----------

Well that's they're going to have to work out. I'm sure there is an answer if they think hard enough.

Re: Brexit
 

They've given us their solution. It's up to us to propose a workable alternative.

Re: Brexit
 

You're missing my point yet again and tbh i don't have time to explain yet again to those that refuse to listen.

Re: Brexit
 

Well you're not making it very well then are you?

Re: Brexit
 

The Greek bailout did not protect the sanctity of the EU, if by that you mean the smooth operation of its various rules and procedures by adherence to laws and treaties. It was explicitly forbidden, but they did it anyway, because it served a purpose which was clearly held to be more important - the restoration of the Greek economy to a healthy, functioning state.

Likewise, a solution to the requirement for an open border on the island of Ireland may not protect the sanctity of the EU in strict terms, but I suspect when it comes to it the healthy functioning of the economy of a member state, in this case Ireland, will be weighed and judged to be more important.

Re: Brexit
 

Sure but that does seem quite hard. Do we know of any open borders across zones that do not have a customs union? At least for economies the size of ours?

It seems at the very least it's difficult which is what the backstop is about. Until we solve that the backstop remains which is why a time limited version seems to destroy the point of it.

But changing the question why is the backstop so horrible anyway? If it is this easy then the deal will be sorted in the transition period. Thus making the backstop redundant. If it is difficult then we'll be a customs union for goods with our closet and biggest trading partner who also happen to be one of the biggest, soon to be the biggest, trading block in the world. Because of the distance and the size of the economies it's unlikely we'll ever have a trading destination that exceeds the EU in our lifetimes. At least not for physical goods.

In all the things that people wanted from Brexit May's agreement delivers nearly all of it and the one part it doesn't could be sorted later. It's there ready to go having been agreed with the EU and the backstop for the whole of the UK was a concession to us.

Re: Brexit
 

Except the consequences are for us, the ones who had this forced on us. The ones who vocally call for this are well insulated from the results so they can risk all.

Re: Brexit
 

Wait, so the UK had no say in the Withdrawal Agreement, it's purely what the EU has offered us? I was under the impression that this was a mutually agreed text between the government and the EU that we now want to change

Re: Brexit
 

Really? You poor little thing. I have an idea you are more well insulated than I or many others.

Don't forget all of us who voted leave were the uneducated working underclass or has that theory now been dismissed?

Re: Brexit
 

Distortion of what was actually reported - polls showed that voters who voted Brexit were more likely to be working class or not have attended Higher Education.

Re: Brexit
 

Don't forget the retired underclass,not sure what insulation we have.
I just want out.

Re: Brexit
 

There's already a border between the North and South for a whole range of issues. We need a little invention and will, pretty sure "will" being the major factor.

Well they advised the backstop was purely insurance and neither side wanted to use it or thought that they would use it. So why not back yourself to sort it out and remove it.

exactly mu earlier point

but defacto still in the EU - unable to strike trade deals, subject to the ECJ and not brexit..

I agree, the EU saw it as concession, but we see it as potential shackles.

As you say it's a 2year period, both side should commit to sorting it within that period one way or the other.

Re: Brexit
 

Oh well.

Looks like the poor are going to be leading the rich for a change then :) ChopChop :D

Re: Brexit
 

If all you can do is patronise then you have already lost the argument :) Let's stick to the debate shall we?

Re: Brexit
 

If the EU can be certain of anything it’s that we will blink if they do not. There’s no Parliamentary will for no deal, no adequate preparations made and nobody will want the blame for it.

To make concessions now would only embolden elements of the Conservative Party into demanding more. We have shown no coherent strategy for two years, and there’s no indication we can for two months.

Re: Brexit
 

One thing to remember is that it was the UK who devised the backstop as a solution to the Irish border problem. So now we're trying to backtrack on an offer we made. Hmm. Can't see that working too well.

Re: Brexit
 

The issue isn't the backstop as such. It is that it's under one-sided control by the EU. They decide whether it ends. They will leave it in indefinitely, unless we give in yet more than by the massive amount we already have.

Re: Brexit
 

Parliamentary will is a mere inconvenience at this stage. In normal times it might present significant political difficulties but these are not normal times and last night Parliament deliberately chose to approve non-binding amendments and to reject binding ones. It has expressed an opinion. Nothing more. And the legal position is that we will leave without a deal if no deal has been ratified, on the 29th of March. Parliament could have changed some or all of this. It changed nothing.

While I still think it more likely that the EU will cave in, albeit using a form of words that makes it look like they haven’t, the chances of No Deal are now far higher.

Re: Brexit
 

I agree that’s the current legal position.

That can change quickly when staring down the barrel though. Parliament backed the non-binding motions out of cowardice and left Theresa May chasing the unicorns that have eluded her for two years. What happens in two weeks when she returns to Parliament for the third time offering an identical deal is anyone’s guess.

Re: Brexit
 

I don't believe the fear-mongers. There's no evidence that the EU would do this.

Re: Brexit
 

"And now the French President outlined European plans that would see Britain forced into the backstop unless Mrs May concedes access to the UK’s fishing waters in the future deal."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...fishing-latest

Re: Brexit
 

Negotiation is a two-way street...

Also - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-47060676

Re: Brexit
 

Unpopular French President tells French voters he will stand up for French interests.

I, for one, am shocked at this revelation.

Re: Brexit
 

Ultimately it is the EU insisting on the backstop. The removal of the backstop is contingent on the EU agreeing to any future deal.

Quote:

RECALLING the Union's and the United Kingdom's intention to replace the backstop solution on Northern Ireland by a subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of Ireland on a permanent footing

So either we give in any EU terms or the backstop remains. We cannot unilaterally bring in a hard border.

Farage:-

Quote:

He said Mrs May now realised the mistake made in agreeing to the backstop, adding: 'She signed up to something that no country - unless it had been defeated in war - would have signed up to.'

Juncker:-

Quote:

Ireland's border is our border.

Not this side of it, or is it?

I don't get all the fuss about a hard border. We can't be tied down by threats from the IRA for all eternity. The Downing Street Declaration stated that any agreement(ie Good Friday agreement) had to be with "consent freely given". As the terrorist threats have continued there is NO "consent freely given", unless you want to redefine criminal acts such as mugging and rapes. IE Giving in after initial violence followed by just threats constitutes consent. Either the IRA has disbanded and disarmed or it hasn't?

Re: Brexit
 

The ‘consent freely given’ were the referendums on both sides of the border in 1998 - from Wikipedia.

Re: Brexit
 

The backstop was our idea/solution ! Now we want to get rid of it !

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Mmm, expect the subject of Gibraltar aswell as fishing rights come up again if we want to renegotiate...

Re: Brexit
 

The "freely" bit shouldn't include the threats at the time of IRA violence. Therefore technically the referendum result wasn't valid, or it wouldn't in any other country in the World.
2016.

Re: Brexit
 

Very true. We get the best possible deal from the EU currently. Anything else is going to be costly in terms of fishing rights, employment, etc.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

One French Prime Minister doth not an EU make.

Re: Brexit
 

The UK doesn't want a backstop. It was the EU that refused any alternatives.

Link


No backstop is really needed as there is NO EU rule preventing non-EU certified goods being in the EU. Only that they can't be marketed etc. Until UK product rules change, which where it happens will take time, the UK and EU rules will be aligned. We're unlikely to go on a massive spree of changing UK rules.

Re: Brexit
 

Your young just give it time.

Re: Brexit
 

Stripped back from the emotive language of the Express it’s much more boring.

He’s a President though, if that changes anything ;)

The funny thing is everyone bemoans the unelected bureaucrats yet don’t realise they are the balance against the nationalist tendencies of elected politicians. The aim being to ensure everyone benefits collectively from participation.

The English fishing fleet relies on access to French, Irish and Norwegian waters.

https://www.ft.com/content/84f51c84-...7-502f7ee26895

Re: Brexit
 

No the backstop was the EU’s idea, enlarging the backstop to cover the entire UK was the UKs idea, to avoid splittting N.I. From G.B.