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-   -   Government & Post Election Discussion (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33705028)

Mr K 09-01-2018 00:01
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35931640)
Sorry Mr K, don't think Trump approves... :D

BREAKING: Trump disapproves sharing his Stable Genius title with Theresa May...

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...1&d=1515449837
That is such FAKE NEWS ! :D

Mr K 09-01-2018 21:56
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018...plans-appoint/
Quote:
Brexit MPs 'dumbfounded' after Theresa May drops plans to appoint minister for no deal to Cabinet
Loving some of the readers comments in the Torygraph, this evening, never knew such hate and bile was possible ! It keeping me well amused (there's not much in the telly ;)).
Keep up the good work PM !

1andrew1 09-01-2018 22:29
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35931764)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018...plans-appoint/


Loving some of the readers comments in the Torygraph, this evening, never knew such hate and bile was possible ! It keeping me well amused (there's not much in the telly ;)).
Keep up the good work PM !
Lol, it's funny seeing all the Telegraph readers finally waking up to the long overdue realisation that Theresa Mayhem is indeed an apt nickname and that the Coalition of Chaos is an accurate description for her government.

Less funny according to the FT's legal correspondent David Allen Green is this

Quote:
David Allen Green
Losing Lidington and Raab from MoJ will have a serious knock-on effect for EU Withdrawal Bill.
They were the two most able ministers dealing the devil of the legalistic detail.
Now new ministers will have to master the detail, from scratch, while Bill is mid-passage

A mess.

The sensible move re Brexit would have been to have promoted Raab to Justice Secretary until Withdrawal Bill had been finally passed.
Bill already delayed and too complex. Getting yet more ministers up to legalistic speed will cause more problems against a strict timetable.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen?...-politics-live

Maybe May is secretly sabotaging Brexit!

jonbxx 10-01-2018 09:57
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35931765)
Lol, it's funny seeing all the Telegraph readers finally waking up to the long overdue realisation that Theresa Mayhem is indeed an apt nickname and that the Coalition of Chaos is an accurate description for her government.

Less funny according to the FT's legal correspondent David Allen Green is this


https://twitter.com/davidallengreen?...-politics-live

Maybe May is secretly sabotaging Brexit!
The good news that the new Minister of Justice David Gauke (my MP) used to be a corporate lawyer, breaking a run of four previous minister who weren't legally qualified.

Osem 10-01-2018 11:57
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Typical Labour nastiness and hypocrisy...

https://order-order.com/2018/01/10/t...ynching-mcvey/

So much to say about nastiness, abuse, bullying, intimidation etc. except their own...

denphone 10-01-2018 13:24
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
How Britain thinks so please discuss..

http://britainthinks.com/pdfs/The-Ye...s_09.01.18.pdf

pip08456 10-01-2018 13:55
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Pointless discussing the results of a survey of a small representative sample.

c.2.500 people represent the feelings of over 60m???

Damien 10-01-2018 14:03
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35931812)
Pointless discussing the results of a survey of a small representative sample.

c.2.500 people represent the feelings of over 60m???
Well this is why we have elections rather than let polls decide everything but they don't just get a random sample of 2,500. They balance out the sample with different demographics and then weight it to reflect society. It's not like an internet poll or asking random people in the street.

It does tend to work. They are quite good at this kind of thing and it's in use everyday in all sorts of industries.

Even the polling errors people like to cite are still roughly correct, at least in terms of sheer numbers if not when they try to project seats.

OLD BOY 10-01-2018 14:13
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35931815)
Well this is why we have elections rather than let polls decide everything but they don't just get a random sample of 2,500. They balance out the sample with different demographics and then weight it to reflect society. It's not like an internet poll or asking random people in the street.

It does tend to work. They are quite good at this kind of thing and it's in use everyday in all sorts of industries.

Even the polling errors people like to cite are still roughly correct, at least in terms of sheer numbers if not when they try to project seats.
Well, I don't think 2,500 is sufficient when you factor in the fact that elections are won by constituencies. You need to get a bigger sample in all like constituencies to get the accuracy required. It was the failure to do this adequately at the last election that led to the result being such a surprise.

Damien 10-01-2018 14:28
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35931817)
Well, I don't think 2,500 is sufficient when you factor in the fact that elections are won by constituencies. You need to get a bigger sample in all like constituencies to get the accuracy required. It was the failure to do this adequately at the last election that led to the result being such a surprise.
Yeah you have to distinguish between the popular vote and how it translates to seats. Incidentally YouGov tried to do this and got it right. They have a hung parliament with Labour winning Canterbury. But the latter is less exact that the raw numbers where pollsters continue to do ok.

Mr K 10-01-2018 14:34
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35931817)
It was the failure to do this adequately at the last election that led to the result being such a surprise.
They messed it up because they over-compensated for the shy Tory vote, which they under did at the election before. Maybe they should just believe what people are telling them, without having to fiddle it one way or another....

Anyway it won't be so much a shy Tory factor in future, it'll be a dead Tory factor, they are dying out, literally. Tory party membership is now so low they refuse to give out the figures any longer. They'll soon to became an endangered species only to be found ranting in archaic forums ;)

denphone 10-01-2018 14:42
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35931826)
They messed it up because they over-compensated for the shy Tory vote, which they under did at the election before. Maybe they should just believe what people are telling them, without having to fiddle it one way or another....

Anyway it won't be so much a shy Tory factor in future, it'll be a dead Tory factor, they are dying out, literally. Tory party membership is now so low they refuse to give out the figures any longer. They'll soon to became an endangered species only to be found ranting in archaic forums ;)
They have not given them out since 2013 but activists and academics believe they have fallen since then.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42565294

https://www.conservativehome.com/the...rassroots.html

OLD BOY 10-01-2018 19:16
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35931826)
They messed it up because they over-compensated for the shy Tory vote, which they under did at the election before. Maybe they should just believe what people are telling them, without having to fiddle it one way or another....

Anyway it won't be so much a shy Tory factor in future, it'll be a dead Tory factor, they are dying out, literally. Tory party membership is now so low they refuse to give out the figures any longer. They'll soon to became an endangered species only to be found ranting in archaic forums ;)
You are so cynical, Mr K! What you have failed to grasp is that an overwhelming number of people who tend to be left wing when young, turn out to be rabid Tories when they get to that certain age!

heero_yuy 10-01-2018 19:34
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35931867)
You are so cynical, Mr K! What you have failed to grasp is that an overwhelming number of people who tend to be left wing when young, turn out to be rabid Tories when they get to that certain age!
That age where they have to really start to pay money for the socialist agenda.

Mr K 10-01-2018 19:46
Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35931867)
You are so cynical, Mr K! What you have failed to grasp is that an overwhelming number of people who tend to be left wing when young, turn out to be rabid Tories when they get to that certain age!
That'll account for the Tories increased 'strong and stable' majority at the last election ;)


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