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-   -   The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2 (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33712720)

1andrew1 05-06-2024 09:04

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by peanut (Post 36176450)
These American style TV debates are stupid. They're too frustrating. Even more so with the 45 seconds to answer format that just doesn't work. You can't base anything on them and they're just too chaotic, it's all about point scoring against each other and nothing else. No one really wins. You have to wait for everything to be fact checked but they end up with everyone wanting to vote for 'none of the above'.

Pointless except for viewing figures, which I guess is why the have such farces on. Describe a complicated policy in 20 seconds whilst being interrupted by an opponent with a non-fact-checked allegation. Washed down with a question that sidelines Scotland in the Euros for good measure.

Better an in-depth grilling of the leaders individually with strong follow-up questions.

Chris 05-06-2024 09:38

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36176452)
Pointless except for viewing figures, which I guess is why the have such farces on. Describe a complicated policy in 20 seconds whilst being interrupted by an opponent with a non-fact-checked allegation. Washed down with a question that sidelines Scotland in the Euros for good measure.

Better an in-depth grilling of the leaders individually with strong follow-up questions.

Pretty much the argument for not doing these TV debates at all, that held sway for many years. They face off weekly at PMQs. Facing off in a TV studio doesn’t add anything, especially when you encourage interruptions by leaving the politicians standing, miked up, at their podiums when it’s not their turn to speak (which doesn’t happen in the Commons, they have to sit down and the broadcasters are not allowed to whack the gain up to catch any of the barracking they might do).

Next week will be worse because it is the left of UK politics that’s most fractured, so in a 7-way debate the voices are overwhelmingly stacked to one side. You don’t have to be a fan of Sunak or this present Tory government to appreciate that’s just a recipe for a pile-on, not a fair or illuminating debate.

An intense one-on-one at the hands of Andrew Neil or similar is what we need.

Kursk 05-06-2024 18:09

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36176423)
Andrew Neil's SCATHING predictions for the general election


What a rambling bore. Take up gardening or knitting Andrew, please.

Hugh 05-06-2024 18:35

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 36176466)
What a rambling bore. Take up gardening or knitting Andrew, please.

Perhaps he could start up a News Channel?

---------- Post added at 18:35 ---------- Previous post was at 18:28 ----------

From the Spectator, that well-known tree-hugging Guardianista left-leaning woke magazine.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...per-household/

Quote:

On Sunak’s maths, Tories will lift taxes by £3,000 per household

My colleague Ross Clark has shown how the Tories cooked up that £2,000 figure. They worked out the total cost of what they think Labour will do, using standard HM Treasury costings. Then, they divided that by the number of in-work households (18.4 million). This is a subset of the 21.4 million total UK households, so no pensioners or workless households. By choosing a smaller denominator, you concentrate the increase and conjure up a scarier figure. Then they quadruple-counted. So they took each year’s estimate for tax rise and then added them together over four years and – presto! – you end up with £2,000.

But let’s apply a similar method to the published plans of the Conservative government. We don’t need to guess what the cost of government would be: the projected tax haul figures were published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and updated in March after the Budget. It will be £1.02 trillion in the current financial year. That’s with the tax/GDP ratio at 36.5 per cent. Let’s use that as our baseline. The OBR says the Tories plan to increase taxes to 37.1 per cent of GDP by 2028/29. So the 0.6-point increase works out at £20 billion more tax raised in that year than if the tax/GDP ratio (below) had stayed flat.

Add up all four years (as the Tories did for their Labour calculation) and you end up with a £320 rise in year one, £620 in year two, £930 in year three and £1,150 in the final year. So: a sum of £3,020 per working household. Except this would be just as misleading as the £2,000 figure that Sunak used so often in the debate last night.

denphone 05-06-2024 18:40

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Rishi Sunak said he he would lead a government of “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level”.

l rest my case!!!!

ianch99 05-06-2024 20:22

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36176467)
Perhaps he could start up a News Channel?

---------- Post added at 18:35 ---------- Previous post was at 18:28 ----------

From the Spectator, that well-known tree-hugging Guardianista left-leaning woke magazine.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...per-household/

There is an interesting discussion that Starmer only contested this lie late on in the debate and so looked potentially weak. However, some (online KC's) point out that this was deliberate to allow the "defendant" to repeat, over and over again, the lie i.e. to let Sunak hang himself. Nice if true ... :)

Chris 05-06-2024 20:48

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36176472)
There is an interesting discussion that Starmer only contested this lie late on in the debate and so looked potentially weak. However, some (online KC's) point out that this was deliberate to allow the "defendant" to repeat, over and over again, the lie i.e. to let Sunak hang himself. Nice if true ... :)

Unlikely to be true, given how long he allowed the Diane Abbot nonsense to go on before making a slightly less than equivocal statement about it. There is a pattern here and it’s not good.

For whatever reason he seems to have a problem with speaking quickly and clearly. His instincts are to stop, chew things over, and then form carefully worded sentences. He is going to be PM, no doubt about that, so he is going to have to learn PDQ that sometimes you need to stand up and speak clearly and forcefully. You don’t always get to chew it over for a week. He might as well learn that now, rather than the next time we face a national disaster.

1andrew1 05-06-2024 21:50

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
I'm with Chris on this one. Unlike Trump, Sunak's not going on trial for presenting false numbers. ;)

There was no advantage for Starmer in letting him repeat the £2k figure unchallenged, so many times. A viewer who didn't watch to the end could have concluded that Starmer accepted the figure as he didn't challenge it.

---------- Post added at 21:50 ---------- Previous post was at 21:48 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36176469)
Rishi Sunak said he he would lead a government of “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level”.

That's why he deserves your vote! He's not done it so far, so he needs another chance to do so! :D

Damien 05-06-2024 22:18

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36176474)
Unlikely to be true, given how long he allowed the Diane Abbot nonsense to go on before making a slightly less than equivocal statement about it. There is a pattern here and it’s not good.

For whatever reason he seems to have a problem with speaking quickly and clearly. His instincts are to stop, chew things over, and then form carefully worded sentences. He is going to be PM, no doubt about that, so he is going to have to learn PDQ that sometimes you need to stand up and speak clearly and forcefully. You don’t always get to chew it over for a week. He might as well learn that now, rather than the next time we face a national disaster.

He did the same in Rochdale. It was clear to everyone that the candidate needed to be dropped; instead, it took two days. It's probably his biggest weakness but thankfully for him, it's not an especially easy one for the Tories to attack. Indecisive would cut though as a term for him I think.

The debate I don't think is the same thing. It's a piece of theatre that doesn't represent the job. In PMQs, he isn't as bad. He also did pick up on it but wasn't forceful enough to press it when the moderator cut him off. He took the tact of not interrupting her to forcefully hit back.

1andrew1 06-06-2024 08:34

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
I'm coming round to the idea that the £2k tax hit statement is this elections equivalent of the £350k a week on the Brexit bus. Both are made up figures but end up successfully putting the opponent on the back foot.

peanut 06-06-2024 08:40

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36176496)
I'm coming round to the idea that the £2k tax hit statement is this elections equivalent of the £350k a week on the Brexit bus. Both are made up figures but end up successfully putting the opponent on the back foot.

I'm sure I saw last night on Peston that under the Tories we'd be £3000 worse off.

1andrew1 06-06-2024 09:35

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by peanut (Post 36176497)
I'm sure I saw last night on Peston that under the Tories we'd be £3000 worse off.

The £2k for a household over four years is quite modest - we've paid £13k per household in more tax since the Conservatives came to power according to some calculations I've seen.

I think the issue currently is that the larger parties have not published their detailed manifestos. Until these are published, it's a case of he said, she said.

ianch99 06-06-2024 10:03

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36176474)
Unlikely to be true, given how long he allowed the Diane Abbot nonsense to go on before making a slightly less than equivocal statement about it. There is a pattern here and it’s not good.

For whatever reason he seems to have a problem with speaking quickly and clearly. His instincts are to stop, chew things over, and then form carefully worded sentences. He is going to be PM, no doubt about that, so he is going to have to learn PDQ that sometimes you need to stand up and speak clearly and forcefully. You don’t always get to chew it over for a week. He might as well learn that now, rather than the next time we face a national disaster.

Starmer indecisive? I am not really sure .. maybe he is and maybe he isn't :) What I am sure of is that allowing a lie to be be repeated so much, as Andrew and others have pointed out, has the risk of baking it in, right or wrong. There are enough people out there who do not think too hard about decisions that change the country.

Chris 06-06-2024 10:13

Re: The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 2
 
Seems like a good point to bring down the curtain on week 2’s discussion and poll …

This thread is now closed, however, please feel free to pick up anything you read here and discuss it in the week 3 thread, now live here: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712736

And don’t forget to vote in the week 3 poll!


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