Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

The Guardian is reporting that the latest reworking of Mrs May's "deal" proposal is a no-go already:

UK's latest Brexit proposal is unrealistic, say EU officials

It is unclear if this draft read by the EU is close to the final form but it does give some idea of what the EU is likely to do.

In the same way that May is shackled by the Hard Brexit supporters in her Cabinet, the EU cannot agree to something that will compromise it's integrity. It seems it will be prepared to accept financial losses to stop the UK having its "cake" ..

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35952666)

Only a eternal optimist believes we won't be worse off as one does not have to be Einstein to work out that there will be financial pain.

https://uk.webfg.com/news/news-and-a...--3103564.html

http://uk.businessinsider.com/leaked...rse-off-2018-1

Old Boy believes that his forecasts are more accurate than anyone else's. That's his right.

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35952677)

Old Boy believes that his forecasts are more accurate than anyone else's. That's his right.

Despite all the proof laid before him..;)

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35952631)

If she does get offered a better deal then the EU will have to offer it to many other countries it has signed trade deals with like Canada as those deals have such a clause in it.
The only way round I could see would be if the UK offered to pay a substantial access fee. This could be offered to the other countries too but they would likely decline it. But I doubt it would go down well with Rees-Mogg etc.

That's what I already envisaged, paying, Norway pay a fortune as part of their deal any way

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35952675)

looking like a hard no deal Brexit every minute and fall of cliff edge disaster for uk :(:(

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35952675)

They reject it as fast as the UK seems to consider it - it is like Davis usually goes through exercises of mental contortion just to tell May to present it to the EU in some huge act of humiliation from the EU when they say no - this gets funnier every single time.

It is not so much that she is a masochist as much as it is that the rest if the cabinet seem to love making an example of her.

Quote:

In the same way that May is shackled by the Hard Brexit supporters in her Cabinet, the EU cannot agree to something that will compromise it's integrity. It seems it will be prepared to accept financial losses to stop the UK having its "cake" ..

Pretty much - it has turned from a "cake and eat it" pipe dream from the leave team, to a "no cake for you" from the EU, Seinfeld style.

They will write history books about this, and for the first time in history, it belongs in the comic book section. (When involving a head of state in the Western World).

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35952686)

That's what I already envisaged, paying, Norway pay a fortune as part of their deal any way

Hopefully they did a cost-benefit analysis, unlike BoJo and chums.

---------- Post added at 16:42 ---------- Previous post was at 16:41 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35952679)

Despite all the proof laid before him..;)

You can take a horse to water, Denphone. ;)

---------- Post added at 16:43 ---------- Previous post was at 16:42 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas (Post 35952693)

They will write history books about this, and for the first time in history, it belongs in the comic book section. (When involving a head of state in the Western World).

Would a certain US President not be on the same book shelf too?

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

I think that his fits much more in the mold of the traditions of "circus performers" / carnival barkers. But even as much as a screw up as he is, he is beginning to get his act together, bit by bit.

The other thing is, the nations are never going to be comparable - ever. One is the most powerful in the world. The UK is just clinging on to the coat tails of an empirical time that is long dead.

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35952697)

You can take a horse to water, Denphone.

The water has been poisoned. You drink it if you want to....

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35952667)

Just ask yourself how more trade can make us poorer.

Quote:

You have to go along with that negative attitude so many people have to believe that trade will suffer to the degree that this will be the disaster they point to. The EU will still want to export to us, won't they? Look at the size of that trade surplus!

They will comfortably be able to take an 80 billion a year hit...easily. More fool us if we think that they will care about that. They'll make it up in other ways (at our expense) like fees / currency charges / service changes and so on.

We are never ever going to win this battle, ever.

Quote:

The impact any tariffs likely to be applied to our exports to the EU would be fairly marginal, and easily made up for by our ability to forge new trade deals. And if, as speculated by some, we decide to apply no tariffs, that will reduce the price of goods coming in (competing with EU goods) and reduce EU exports to us (thereby damaging the EU).

If we decide to levy no tariffs to nations outside the EU, it would be a great thing...you know why?

Because it will put all the dead wood who all voted to leave, out of business. What is the point in bitching about EU member states undercutting us, only to have the rest of the world outside Europe, come eat our lunch???

Quote:

This is not a one way street when we look at the implications of Brexit. A no deal will hurt both sides, but we will come out of it better thanks to all our new trading partners.

I have to keep asking...what new trade deals?? The US is a 20 trillion dollar economy, and in the midst of the 2020 Presidential campaign there will be zero appetite for a trade deal.

Trump will wish to fleece the UK but no way does it get through the Senate, which it needs to.

Britain will not come out of this better off - the US is going to rip the UK into pieces, which it still cannot while the UK is still a part of the EU. (The largest trading bloc in the world).

Trump managed to get past Rexit eventually this year and his new negotiator / diplomat in chief is being outdone by Kim Jong Un. Brexit would be a step too far - because if he were to be outdone by this group in the cabinet then he should resign as President. It is one thing to be outdone by North Korea but by May? The Japanese would tell him to go out honorably at that point.

If Trump wins re-elect / gets through past 2021 or so and there is a transition period short enough then I suppose the UK could present itself (in the mating sense) to the US and allow Cornyn / Pence etc to get even more out of Britain before 2024 - I guess that everyone will learn the hard way in the end.

Trump is chomping at the bit here, so it Manuchin / Kudlow / Ross etc. They are just from within the cabinet. Cornyn and co want a go in the Senate...God knows what the House make all of this, too.

Do you really want to save your pride only to be cannibalized by a nation with almost 10 times the economy???

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35952710)

The water has been poisoned. You drink it if you want to....

It's British water from the Government you admire and trust except when it proves your arguments to be flawed. At which instance it's poisoned.

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

The challenge for the remainers on this thread is to suggest in the present difficult situation, how Brexit can be delivered. Brexit doesn’t mean remaining in the CU nor in the SM; Nor does it mean having our cake and eating it. We are leaving the EU and it’s institutions; the guvmin is riven; May is either playing her cards close to her chest or is a complete bungler. Assuming the latter, how should we leave all the EU institutions?

Remember, it is law that we are leaving. We are 60m multi-skilled people. Those parameters to be included.

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas (Post 35952717)

I have to keep asking...what new trade deals??

Exactly. Any substantial new trade deals will be signed with the EU as it's a far larger market. THe UK needs to forge its own trade deals and will be playing catch-up for a long time and on worse terms. That's due to economies of scale/leverage in negotiations which Old Boy fails to understand.

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas (Post 35952717)

That is exactly what will happen though. We will get poorer. Why? Not because we have more trade but because we will have friction and tariffs in the trade that we used to have that was open and free and because the rest already will have the trade with the bloc that used to involve us, less us after our departure.

After March 2019 we're telling the rest of the world: "we're here, come get us". We are not putting an "open for business" sign up, we are putting a "open for pillaging" sign up and that we are here for the spoils.

They will comfortably be able to take an 80 billion a year hit...easily. More fool us if we think that they will care about that. They'll make it up in other ways (at our expense) like fees / currency charges / service changes and so on.

We are never ever going to win this battle, ever.

If we decide to levy no tariffs to nations outside the EU, it would be a great thing...you know why?

Because it will put all the dead wood who all voted to leave, out of business. What is the point in bitching about EU member states undercutting us, only to have the rest of the world outside Europe, come eat our lunch???

I have to keep asking...what new trade deals?? The US is a 20 trillion dollar economy, and in the midst of the 2020 Presidential campaign there will be zero appetite for a trade deal.

Trump will wish to fleece the UK but no way does it get through the Senate, which it needs to.

Britain will not come out of this better off - the US is going to rip the UK into pieces, which it still cannot while the UK is still a part of the EU. (The largest trading bloc in the world).

Trump managed to get past Rexit eventually this year and his new negotiator / diplomat in chief is being outdone by Kim Jong Un. Brexit would be a step too far - because if he were to be outdone by this group in the cabinet then he should resign as President. It is one thing to be outdone by North Korea but by May? The Japanese would tell him to go out honorably at that point.

If Trump wins re-elect / gets through past 2021 or so and there is a transition period short enough then I suppose the UK could present itself (in the mating sense) to the US and allow Cornyn / Pence etc to get even more out of Britain before 2024 - I guess that everyone will learn the hard way in the end.

Trump is chomping at the bit here, so it Manuchin / Kudlow / Ross etc. They are just from within the cabinet. Cornyn and co want a go in the Senate...God knows what the House make all of this, too.

Do you really want to save your pride only to be cannibalized by a nation with almost 10 times the economy???

Nice :) I wish I had the time to do the research that would allow be to write a "weapons grade" post like this.

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Thank you for the very kind words - I have kind of been following politics since I was like 5 and have had no choice but to learn a knack for a lot of it. My husband is very into politics, too and I would not have a conversation through an entire day at times unless I got some political know-how.

The weird thing is, I just happen to know a lot about politics / law but that is not to say I have all that much interest in it, lol.